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Friday, March 29, 2024

{jcomments on}As we start the month of May we have finished almost exactly one sixth of the 2011 season. So as the title suggests, is this a day for alarm or for celebration for your fantasy teams?

More importantly with a concrete set of numbers from the first month, what do you need to do with each of your teams to get into a position to win or at least place in your different leagues?

Long time readers will remember my article on Billy Beane and his philosophy for the Oakland Athletics:

  • The first third of the season – April & May – give you the evaluation of where your strengths and weaknesses are and what you need to do to improve.
  • The second third of the season – June & July – are where you need to make your changes (especially trades) to get your roster ready to drive toward the finish line.
  • The final third of the season – August & September – it’s time to put the hammer down and do everything you can to get your best result – hopefully that is winning your league, but realistically it might be getting into the money, winning the second half prize, getting the best minor league pick you can for next season, or if forced to start on 2012 early, getting the best pieces for your roster for next year.

While we always preach a little patience – you don’t want to be cutting Alex Rios just to watch him spring to life next month on someone else’s roster – you do need to be proactive as in any league there are players not rostered at the draft who make the most of their chance(s) and will help many teams.

At least this applies to those not in leagues where there are no reserves. Some of these players – Sam Fuld in Tampa Bay – surfaced very early in the season – maybe even before your draft if you drafted after the first weekend of play. Others like Philip Humber, Sergio Santos, or Mitchell Boggs made their team’s opening day rosters but didn’t get their opportunities in their new roles until weeks into the season. Lastly there were several call-ups at the end of April – Vance Worley, Alex White, or David Cooper who look like they will have further chances to help their big league clubs and your fantasy teams. Don’t be late to the party on all of these!

Certainly league rules influence your roster moves. Early poor starts or players drafted who have already lost their jobs/roles have or will spurn some changes in your roster. But don’t let the fact that you are leading your league or doing very well make you complacent about roster changes – and I say that while I am berating myself for a change I failed to make last week.

When the White Sox put Humber into the rotation it wasn’t exactly a buy sign. The former first round pick (who admittedly had his career changed by early Tommy John surgery) hadn’t pitched well enough to be on radar screens. But looking at him once he was starting for the Pale Hose showed much better results. And good results often lead to greater confidence which beget more good results.

Certainly by last week he had shown enough to be picked up in AL only leagues. And in fact, I did pick Humber up in both my AL LABR league and in the FantasyPros AL league. But I failed to add him for a dollar in another AL keeper league, perhaps because I had been in first place all month and because I had a pretty strong group of starters – Ricky Romero, Jeremy HellicksonColby Lewis, Michael Pineda, Justin Masterson and Matt Harrison. And with Neftali Feliz going on the DL, I had an open reserve spot so certainly with question marks about both Masterson and Harrison and Lewis off to a poor start, I should have at least put Humber on my list.

There was a hitter I lost out on (that does not immediately spring to mind), but I should have had had a secondary (or tertiary) bid on Humber in case I didn’t win the hitter(s), which I didn’t’. So that failure to add him for a dollar meant this week when I saw more good pitching from him and wanted to add him, I tried a bid of $11 (on a $100 budget for the year) – and I lost to an $18 bid from a team much lower in the standings who needed him more. Don’t be complacent.

Improving your roster every chance you get is an integral part of success over a six month period.