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When Fantasy Meets Reality PDF Print E-mail
Diary of a Fantasy Madman
Written by Zach Steinhorn   
Sunday, 13 October 2013 00:00

Who says fantasy baseball doesn’t mimic the real thing? Trust me, it does. And how do I know? Because I spent three hours figuring it all out. Using the real 2013 end of season team stats for the traditional 5x5 rotisserie categories and imagining a 30-team roto league, the final standings would look like this:

AL EAST

Red Sox  230.5

Rays  204.5

Orioles  188

Yankees  153.5

Blue Jays  149.5

AL CENTRAL

Tigers  220.5

Indians  199

Royals  187

White Sox  101.5

Twins  59.5

AL WEST

Rangers  234.5

Athletics  221.5

Angels  161.5

Mariners  119.5

Astros  50.5

NL EAST

Braves  210.5

Nationals  192

Mets  120

Phillies  66

Marlins  65.5

NL CENTRAL

Cardinals  208.5

Pirates  195.5

Reds  195

Brewers  140.5

Cubs  89.5

NL WEST

Dodgers  196.5

Diamondbacks  130

Rockies  129

Giants  123.5

Padres  107

And just in case you don’t believe me, here’s the Excel spreadsheet to prove it.

So, what’s the difference between the real final standings and the fantasy final standings? Not much. Let’s take a look.

AL East: Same

AL Central: Twins 4th place and White Sox last place in real standings

AL West: Athletics 1st place and Rangers 2nd place in real standings

NL East: Same

NL Central: Same

NL West: Padres 3rd place and Rockies last place in real standings

FANTASY LEAGUE PLAYOFF TEAMS

AL: Rangers (West), Red Sox (East), Tigers (Central), Athletics (WC), Rays (WC)

NL: Braves (East), Cardinals (Central), Dodgers (West), Pirates (WC), Reds (WC)

I feel bad for the Rangers organization. I really do. First, they lose back-to-back World Series, Then last year, they drop a one-game wild card playoff against the Orioles. This season, they lose a tiebreaker game to the Rays. And now this? Despite ranking first in our fictitious roto league, they couldn’t even make it to the postseason in the version of the game that isn’t played on a spreadsheet.

Now listen, I’ll be the first to admit that this study is limited, as 10 statistical categories is a tiny fraction of the many factors that come into play when determining a team’s on-field success. But the fact that these 10 statistical categories so accurately modeled the actual standings is pretty impressive.

Last I checked, Jon Daniels has plenty of job security in his role as Rangers GM. But if the club ever gets sick of him and opts to part ways, I’ll be the first one to place a recruiting call.

Maybe hiring Daniels as co-GM is just what my Tout Wars franchise needs. 

Last Updated on Sunday, 13 October 2013 08:52
 

More Articles by Zach Steinhorn

Comments  

 
# lawr 2013-10-13 09:26
this is great, Zach.

i used to do this with the playoff teams every year (but only as a 4X4) and, yeah, took hours.

at least you have a template now.

but, it is kind of interesting how close to reality fantasy numbers are, huh?
 
 
# Todd Zola 2013-10-13 10:47
3 hours? Someone needs a couple of Excel lessons
 

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