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DC Average Standings for Target Drafting ($150 and $375) PDF Print E-mail
Theory and Strategy - Platinum
Written by Administrator   
Tuesday, 10 December 2013 18:50

By Todd Zola

One of the more popular modes of drafting involves setting targets based on the average standings from previous seasons. The NFBC has DC leagues at two price points (well, three but we won't count the $1000 options since there aren't enough leagues to generate ample data). Last season the fees were $150 and $375 with the $375 league paying out equally to the top-three finishers. This season the $375 leagues are $400. The standard option is to pay the top-three equally like last season but there will be some options for graded payouts.

Below are average standings for the 2013 Draft Championship Leagues for those favoring drafting towards category targers (I'm not a fan of this method, but that's a story for another day). There were 98 $150 DC leagues used and 22 $375 leagues.

$150 DC Category Totals Average Standings

BA R HR RBI SB ERA W WHIP K SV
15pt 0.277 1044 273 1020 184 3.186 109 1.149 1468 119
14pt 0.274 1014 261 985 168 3.322 104 1.179 1411 102
13pt 0.272 991 251 960 158 3.418 100 1.196 1373 94
12pt 0.270 973 245 945 149 3.492 97 1.210 1341 86
11pt 0.269 959 239 930 143 3.544 94 1.220 1312 81
10pt 0.267 944 233 915 136 3.592 92 1.231 1290 76
9pt 0.266 933 228 902 130 3.640 90 1.239 1264 71
8pt 0.265 920 223 886 124 3.685 87 1.246 1238 65
7pt 0.263 909 218 870 118 3.727 85 1.255 1214 60
6pt 0.262 893 213 857 114 3.782 82 1.266 1190 54
5pt 0.261 877 208 840 108 3.831 80 1.277 1163 48
4pt 0.259 859 202 821 102 3.897 77 1.288 1131 43
3pt 0.257 839 196 798 97 3.969 74 1.300 1089 35
2pt 0.255 817 187 773 87 4.063 70 1.315 1045 23
1pt 0.251 773 172 733 74 4.233 63 1.340 961 12

$375 DC Category Totals Average Standings

BA R HR RBI SB ERA W WHIP K SV
15pt 0.276 1041 281 1037 198 3.197 111 1.151 1500 122
14pt 0.273 1012 267 1002 170 3.340 105 1.179 1453 109
13pt 0.271 988 256 969 161 3.412 101 1.197 1392 97
12pt 0.269 976 249 952 152 3.493 98 1.208 1354 89
11pt 0.268 965 241 926 143 3.553 95 1.216 1320 83
10pt 0.267 956 235 915 137 3.597 92 1.228 1294 76
9pt 0.266 945 230 901 130 3.643 90 1.239 1274 71
8pt 0.265 933 225 892 124 3.688 88 1.248 1242 64
7pt 0.264 917 219 878 117 3.749 86 1.257 1217 58
6pt 0.262 902 213 862 110 3.810 83 1.270 1187 53
5pt 0.261 884 208 849 104 3.869 80 1.279 1164 47
4pt 0.259 862 201 821 100 3.932 78 1.291 1135 38
3pt 0.258 840 196 797 94 3.983 75 1.299 1103 31
2pt 0.255 813 187 766 87 4.065 70 1.319 1043 19
1pt 0.249 776 159 723 70 4.240 63 1.347 957 7

 There are some that believe the $375 leagues lend themselves to gimmick strategies since all it takes is third place to cash the same as if you won. While it may be true, there isn't evidence this is the case using the above data. Intuitively, this makes sense since the gimmick strategies involve doing well in some categories while not caring as much about others. In a zero-sum environment like roto-standings, this will even out since there are a few "opposite" strategies (one team gets all power and little speed while another team gets a ton or SB and BAvg with low power).

The second part of this process is having an idea of how many points it takes to win. Below are average standings using points for the same leagues.

$150 DC Points Totals Average Standings

 

BA R HR RBI SB ERA W WHIP K SV HIT PIT TOTAL
1st 11.3 13.0 12.1 12.7 11.0 12.8 11.8 12.2 11.8 9.2 60.1 57.7 117.8
2nd 10.8 12.0 11.0 11.5 10.3 11.1 11.2 11.0 10.7 8.7 55.6 52.7 108.3
3rd 9.7 11.3 10.6 10.9 10.2 10.2 11.0 9.8 10.2 7.9 52.7 49.1 101.9
4th 10.2 10.6 9.8 10.7 9.1 9.5 9.4 9.9 9.5 8.3 50.4 46.6 97.0
5th 9.7 9.7 9.5 9.6 9.1 9.3 8.4 9.3 9.0 8.1 47.6 44.1 91.8
6th 8.6 9.2 9.0 9.3 8.6 8.7 9.3 8.5 9.3 7.6 44.7 43.4 88.1
7th 8.0 9.1 8.9 8.9 8.5 8.2 8.5 8.1 8.1 8.1 43.4 41.1 84.5
8th 8.2 8.4 7.9 8.2 8.1 7.5 7.7 8.3 7.7 8.4 40.7 39.6 80.3
9th 7.2 6.7 7.3 7.0 7.3 8.5 8.1 8.2 8.3 7.9 35.4 41.0 76.4
10th 6.8 7.1 7.6 7.3 7.8 6.8 7.2 6.6 7.4 7.8 36.5 35.8 72.3
11th 6.6 6.4 6.8 6.3 7.1 6.5 6.7 6.6 6.4 8.0 33.2 34.2 67.5
12th 7.0 5.3 6.1 5.7 6.8 6.1 5.7 6.2 6.2 7.7 30.9 31.9 62.8
13th 6.4 4.4 4.6 4.9 6.3 6.0 5.4 6.1 5.8 7.8 26.7 31.1 57.8
14th 5.2 3.9 4.6 3.9 5.5 4.9 5.3 5.1 5.1 7.5 23.1 28.0 51.1
15th 4.5 2.7 3.9 3.0 4.4 3.8 4.3 4.1 4.1 6.8 18.7 23.2 41.8

$375 DC Points Totals Average Standings

 

BA R HR RBI SB ERA W WHIP K SV HIT PIT TOTAL
1st 10.3 12.4 11.0 11.6 11.3 12.5 9.7 13.0 10.5 9.6 56.5 55.3 111.8
2nd 11.5 11.8 10.4 10.5 9.9 11.2 10.5 11.2 11.5 7.0 54.0 51.4 105.5
3rd 9.1 11.5 11.1 11.0 10.3 10.8 9.9 9.5 9.5 9.5 53.2 49.3 102.4
4th 9.1 11.3 9.0 9.4 8.1 10.1 9.6 9.8 9.8 9.4 46.9 48.7 95.6
5th 9.3 8.9 9.0 9.5 8.2 9.1 8.8 9.1 9.1 9.1 44.8 45.3 90.1
6th 9.1 9.4 9.7 9.4 9.0 8.9 9.1 7.4 9.4 7.1 46.7 41.9 88.6
7th 9.0 8.1 7.9 8.9 9.0 8.0 9.8 7.2 8.8 7.7 42.9 41.5 84.4
8th 8.7 8.9 7.4 8.0 8.6 7.0 7.9 7.5 7.7 7.8 41.6 37.8 79.4
9th 8.3 7.5 7.5 8.2 7.1 7.0 7.1 8.0 6.9 8.5 38.5 37.6 76.2
10th 7.3 5.5 6.6 6.5 7.4 7.7 8.3 7.9 7.6 7.4 33.2 39.0 72.2
11th 6.5 6.7 6.5 7.6 6.8 6.9 6.5 7.3 7.2 8.9 34.1 36.8 70.9
12th 6.3 6.8 7.2 6.8 7.5 6.4 7.0 6.0 6.0 6.5 34.6 31.8 66.4
13th 5.9 4.6 6.0 4.6 5.4 5.6 7.5 6.7 6.7 7.2 26.5 33.6 60.2
14th 6.5 4.2 5.5 4.8 6.3 4.6 4.9 4.8 5.8 6.5 27.4 26.6 53.9
15th 3.0 2.5 5.2 3.2 5.1 4.2 3.4 4.6 3.5 7.7 19.0 23.5 42.5

The manner most do the calculation is note it takes 118 points to win the $150 format and 112 points to win the $375 format. To score 118 points, you need 12 points per category which is basically finishing 4th in each so the category target would be to finish 4th in each (pulled from the first table.) In the $375 format, you only on average) need 112 points which is closer to 5th place in each category.

As an aside. while this difference could be a difference in sample size (98 leagues versus 22) it also may indeed be solid evidence that there are more gimmick strategies employed in the $375 leagues.

Speaking of gimmick strategies, an example how these tables are useful is the following. Let's use second place as that avails you a margin of error to still finish third in the $375 (now $400) leagues. You need 106 points to be in the money. Let's say your strategy is to get saves and either wins and K's or ERA and WHIP. If you run the table, you get (3 x 15) + 1 + 1 or 47 points, meaning you need about 60 more in hiting to cash. There are 75 possible hitting points so hopefylly by avoiding the upper tier starters (part and parcel to either strategy) you solidify htting and get the 60 points.

There are several caveats when using target drafting. Remember these are AVERAGE stanndings. The first place score in the $150 leagues ranged from 99.5 points to 137 points. That is, 118 is not going to win all the leagues.

Another possible issue is the assumption that the MLB statistical distribution remains similar one year to the next. This was NOT the case in 2013 as MLB saw a precipitous drop in steals so the targets used last spring ended up to be non-representatve of what eventually occured.

As I alluded to, I'm not a fan of target drafting (there are more reasons that I'll treat at a future date) but respect those that do employ the strategy. If it works for you, more power to you. If it helps keep a balance or speed and power, that's great.

Regardless, I am more than happy to provide the data and leave it to you to decide if you want to use it.

A spreadsheet of the data is available HERE.

 
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