Fantasy baseball players aren’t concerned with what the Angels are eventually going to pay Mike Trout for those in keeper leagues have their own Trout contract problem THIS spring.

In AL-only keeper leagues, Trout was rostered in many leagues as a minor league prospect or farm player in 2010 or 2011. Many fantasy players likely didn’t activate him for his 40 games during the second half of the 2011 season, so the outfielder's contract clock then began in 2012 as $5 or $10 per season contract in most setups.

After Trout's terrific contributions to those fantasy owners in 2012 and 2013, the time for a decision comes this spring:  How long do they lock him up with a long-term contract? The standard for extending a player is adding five dollars for each year he will be contracted past 2014. So if he is currently at $5 as season (as I have him in my AL keeper league) the choices would be:

Keep him at $5 this season and he goes back into the auction pool in 2015.

Add $5 and keep him at $10 for 2014 and 2015.

Add $10 and keep him at $15 for 2014, 2015, and 2016.

Add $15 dollars and keep him at $20 for 2014 through 2017.

Add $20 dollars and keep him at $25 for 2014 through 2018.

Add even more five dollar increments and keep him for much longer.

Sure, we all want to own Trout for the foreseeable future but unlike MLB, our game places a salary cap on our teams, making us examine the efficacy of long-term contracts.

So what fits your team?

I don’t see too many examples of this, but if you had a team with only a clear window to win this year – perhaps with several key expiring contracts – you might not be able to spend too many dollars on Trout and just keep him at $5. The good thing about this approach, aside from a tremendous profit this year, would be that if for some reason you weren’t going to win your league, you could get a huge return from the teams contending for your league championship. If you had that “win now” team and could spend the $10, and then if injuries or unexpected poor performance from your expiring players were to happen, you could trade them instead and still have a nice $10 Trout next season.

So what is the value (profit if you will) of Trout at differing contract levels? What is your maximum return on a long-term contract?

First, we need to look at how much Trout has earned in his first two full seasons and what we project him to earn in 2014. In AL-only leagues, Trout earned $47 in 5x5 keeper leagues ($48 in 4x4). He then earned $45 in 2013. Mastersball projections for 2014 have him earning $38 (likely based on a lower batting average...after all he dropped from .326 to .323 last year). But we have to project for several future seasons to get contract values, so I am going to value him at a flat $40 for the next five years. Even if his batting average is lower, maybe something else is higher and he maintains value of $40 or more.

Okay, let’s go back to the contract options and see what the net profits are at a current five dollar salary with five dollars for each additional year you extend him (If you are at $10 now or add ten dollars per year you can change these scenarios with your numbers).

Keep him at $5 this year – Earn $35.

Add one year so $10 this year and next – Earn $30+30 = $60.

Add two years so $15 contract – Earn $25+25+25 = $75.

Add three years so $20 contract - Earn $20+20+20+20 = $80.

Add four years so $25 contract – Earn $15+15+15+15+15 = $75.

Add five years so $30 contract – Earn $10+10+10+10+10+10 = $60.

So while having him for the next five years is as much profit as a three-year deal, the maximum profit is to sign him to a four-year contract – three additional years, so $20 in 2014 through 2017 and make a 20 dollar profit on him each year.

My Mike Trout will be on my Great American Rotisseleague roster as $20C17, at our auction on April 1 adding three seasons to his current 5D12.

Your mileage may vary. {jcomments on}