In Week 13, we have one of the most productive QB/RB pairs in Marcus Mariota and DeMarco Murray on a bye and then we have the lowly Browns on a bye. Week 12 was a major DFS disaster for Seahawks backers – Wilson, Rawls, Baldwin, Graham – all turkeys. They can’t possibly have been that bad. How can anyone fade the Lions-Saints this week? Their Vegas total of 53.5 is four points higher than any other game.
You can try to be cute and ride the Kaepernick train, and maybe it will work. Or you can just pay up for a QB that always seems to post numbers that support the price. Brees at home – check. Roethlisberger at home – check.
|QB||Drew Brees||NO||7600||Has to be under consideration every week|
|QB||Ben Roethlisberger||Pit||7400||Every week at home|
|QB||Matthew Stafford||Det||7000||Game with Saints has highest Vegas total by a lot|
|QB||Russell Wilson||Sea||6300||Big bounce back. Under-owned after last debacle|
|QB||Colin Kaepernick||SF||6100||Becoming a trendy pick|
|QB||Eli Manning||NYG||5900||Cheap price for productive QB|
|QB||Tyrod Taylor||Buf||5700||Getting primary deep threat back in form|
Try hard to fit either Johnson or Bell into your lineup. The price is steep, but they deliver every week. There are other attractive cheaper options to pair with them.
|RB||David Johnson||Ari||9500||He has been gold, but now must get 30 to earn value|
|RB||Le'Veon Bell||Pit||9200||Same as Johnson, but is always in the play|
|RB||LeSean McCoy||Buf||7800||Nice discount off Johnson and Bell|
|RB||Jordan Howard||Chi||6900||Start the RB against SF - always|
|RB||Mark Ingram||NO||6000||Played like his mind was altered after the concussion|
|RB||Theo Riddick||Det||5800||Figures to be heavily involved|
|RB||Carlos Hyde||SF||5300||Primary offense for SF when healthy|
|RB||Jeremy Hill||Cin||4300||Caught plenty of passes with Gio out|
Cheaper receivers continue to post useful numbers and there are plenty of receivers in the $4k range to choose from. Sure they all come with risks, like the QB can forget that the receiver plays on the team (see Shepard and Cooks). But that scenario is unlikely.
|WR||Antonio Brown||Pit||9100||Has to be a consideration every week|
|WR||Odell Beckham Jr.||NYG||8500||Will be focused on outperforming Brown|
|WR||Michael Thomas||NO||6900||Brees' solid primary target|
|WR||Julian Edelman||NE||6800||More looks if Gronk is out|
|WR||Davante Adams||GB||6300||From the dog house to the Pro Bowl in one season|
|WR||Golden Tate||Det||6200||Figures to be right in the middle of highest scoring game|
|WR||Sammy Watkins||Buf||5500||He's back and in GPP play|
|WR||Sterling Shepard||NYG||4900||Nice when QB apologizes for forgetting about you|
|WR||Tyler Boyd||Cin||4800||8-9 targets for under $5k - I am in|
|WR||Marvin Jones Jr.||Det||4400||Falling way out of favor but is so darn cheap|
|WR||Anquan Boldin||Det||4100||Boldin, Lee, Wilson, Rogers all in play in this price range|
My off-season project is to search for a dependable way to project TE usage. There seems to be little rhyme or reason that leads to a tight end posting a zero or being a hero.
|TE||Jordan Reed||Was||6400||Dislike the pick due to injury - was this close to being a dud on turkey day|
|TE||Greg Olsen||Car||5100||A nice discount off Reed|
|TE||Eric Ebron||Det||3900||These guys do not need much to earn value - but they do tend to disappear|
|TE||Cameron Brate||TB||3600||Fitting in nicely as second look for Jameis|
|TE||Vance McDonald||SF||2900||Knack for the end zone|
|TE||Ladarius Green||Pit||2800||Continues to round into form|
There are three defenses that appear to be worth paying for, but on the flip side there are two cheaper options.
|DST||Broncos||Den||3900||Premier matchup against turnover-prone Jax|
|DST||Patriots||NE||3700||Pats against a rookie QB|
|DST||Seahawks||Sea||3500||Neither team is at Super Bowl level|
|DST||Chargers||SD||2900||Been sneaky good all season|
|DST||Dolphins||Mia||2600||Getting better every week|
Count me among the victims of the Seahawks walking the plank last week. This week I want a piece of the Lions-Saints game, but I am going to lean towards the Lions, who should be lower owned.