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Thursday, March 28, 2024

We are now about two weeks past the actual half way point in terms of games played and have about two weeks before the MLB non-waiver trade deadline and likely your league’s trade deadline. Perhaps a time when you should consider getting seventy five cents for your dollar…..

This is a very critical time for YOUR roster management if you are in contention in a redraft league(s) or in keeper leagues, as many of those correctly have their trading deadlines on the first or second weekend of August. But if you wait until your league’s trading deadline to make all your moves, you will be at a disadvantage.

If you make a trade now, you will have a few weeks to see not only if you are gaining in certain categories, or whether other teams in your league may be losing ground in those categories or others, but also how some teams in your league react to your trade(s). That will leave you much better placed if you need to make one final trade at the deadline than if you have waited.

You may also be facing some immediate roster decisions that play into this. If you have Carlos Beltran or Edinson Volquez on your roster and have been waiting, they are back and ready to contribute, but I am going to suggest the best lineup for them to be in may NOT be yours.

Let’s look at Beltran, off the DL last week and playing most (but not all) games in center field and hitting cleanup for the Metropolitans. And let’s say your current outfielders are Ichiro, Adam Dunn, Nick Markakis, Adam Jones, and Jay Bruce. Which of those would you drop to play Beltran?

Maybe Volquez has been on your DL and you thought he wouldn’t return until very late this year and you just viewed him as a nice keeper for next year….but you are in contention now and he is way ahead of schedule, ready to help the Reds and maybe your team. Your current pitching staff is Tommy Hanson, Dan Haren, Ricky Nolasco, Jon Garland, Mike Pelfrey, Jair Jurrjens, Wade LeBlanc, Heath Bell, and Carlos Marmol. Which of those would you drop to play Volquez?

In the first situation, Beltran might be marginally better than one of your outfielders (he isn’t going to have a lot of stolen bases), but you could easily guess wrong….and they all play every day. In the second case, again he might have more value than a few of those starters, but you would have to guess correctly and if you drop one you might be adding a very useful pitcher to one of your opponent’s roster.

In both cases, what I would look to do is to make a trade:

  • A 2-1 trade where you get a STUD back
  • A 2-2 trade where you get a STUD and a dud back and drop the dud
  • A 3-2 trade where you get a STUD and a player =/+ than one of the player you traded

This will allow you to more effectively use Beltran or Volquez whether on your team or having traded them and their associated risk and at the same time improved your lineup. And THAT is the key point – as long as you improve your existing lineup, you should not be hung up on getting “full value” if you trade them.

First no one knows exactly what full value for either really is. What if they can’t play for the rest of the year and you dropped a pretty good player to get one into your lineup.

Secondly they may be worth more to another team than they are to yours. In the Beltran example, it is not clear he would produce more value than the outfielders you already have. You may have far more need at a different position, so trading Beltran or Volquez plus a middle infielder might get you a much better MI or a big upgrade at the same position.

Lastly their categorical help might not be where your lineup needs it. Use having a strong player coming back to make your self better in a different category.

The final thing to get into your head before you start making calls or sending emails to find a trading partner – you do NOT have to get full value in this trade. It is far more important to use your assets correctly – that is in improving your lineup – than it is to worry about whether what kind of value you got. Take the seventy five cents for your dollar. Heck in many situations I would take far less to improve my lineup at a critical point of the year. The time to make your move is NOW.