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How About Adjusted Draft Position? PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 09 February 2015 00:00

Todd and I both keep harping on the fact that we run from ADP, as in "Average Draft Position."

I don't know about Z, but I get a lot of arguments back saying that it is useful in gauging what your opponents might do. Fair enough.

I cannot speak for Todd, but to me in a nutshell, ADP tells us when the masses like a player, and that determines a superficial form of value. But, again, as Todd has so eloquently noted, don't draft based upon value: rather draft upon the projection you have for the player. 

In other words, if Dustin Pedroia has an ADP of 8 among second sackers, and Kolten Wong 12, logically Pedroia is perceived to have a higher value. However, while Pedey might have that great body of stats behind him to buoy that worth, Wong is a solid potential 20/20 player who is just coming into his own, and that means if I can get him in the eighth round instead of Pedroia, I probably have a better pick. Better, if I can get him in the 9th or 10th round, that too ensures good numbers and the potential profit that goes with Kolten's stat base. 

Further, the longer I can wait to draft him, the higher the profit. However, if Wong is indeed #12 at second, once round 11 comes, I should not be surprised to see him snatched up before I get my pick again.

However, Wong is just one piece of the whole of a team, and it is the potential--again to use the Lord's vernacular--that you want to draft to, as part of that aggregate, not the value. For, ideally realized potential is what becomes true value, as opposed to the perceived value of when a player is selected.

As an example, Todd and I agreed to draft Anthony Rizzo as our first pick--#7 overall--in the FSTA draft, something that apparently caused some controversy.

But, for the most part, that is what we were thinking when push came to shove: that among the available choices offered as first rounders, Rizzo offered the possibilities of taking the biggest leap to the next step based upon his age, his experience, now his team, and line of stats established in 2014.

So, the question for me is not when are people in general drafting Rizzo, but rather, when I get him--or any other player--in line with filling out my roster while also realizing that potential as part of the team?

Got it? 

What that means to me is that I don't care when the masses slate Rizzo for selection, adjudging it "too early" should he be grabbed prior to the ADP baseline: What matters to me is when I can reasonably grab him ahead of that curve, for if I do and my perceptions are correct, I will at worst turn a profit on all my players.

If that is the case--even if the profit is marginal--I should have a competitive team.

So, instead of an Average Draft Position, what is of more interest to me is Adjusted Draft Position, with that adjustment being when should I jump on a guy?

With that in mind, I want to look at some of the players in the Mocks I have completed, focusing on players I indeed like, to see exactly when a good time to nab them is.

Miguel Cabrera: One of the guys we passed up in order to get Rizzo has slipped to the second round in a couple of mocks, which means good for you if you grab Miggy there. The truth is, Miggy would have been fine as our number seven pick as well, for improving upon his .313-25-109 total really only needs a bump of five to eight homers to confirm his bona fide first round status. Our concern was injury, and well, it was fun to pick Rizzo and cause a bit of a fuss. But, Miggy is still a fine grab, and should indeed give you that profit margin anytime after 1.5. If you can get him as a second rounder, woo hoo.

Evan Gattis: Again, Z and I raised eyebrows by grabbing Gattis when we did, in the fifth round. Gattis has generally been snatched up between rounds 8-10, so we may have been a little premature, but not much, especially when you consider he will play in the outfield, meaning the injury risk is reduced. We think he can pop 30 out of the yard, so a fifth round pick is totally reasonable. Tenth round? A bloody steal for a catcher who won't catch and can club 30-plus homers.

Leonys Martin: I am bigger on Martin than just about anyone, and for over a year I have been asking why Starling Marte gets so much love, and Martin is seven rounds lower on the hug scale? Marte went .291-13-56 with 30 swipes, while Martin was .274-7-40 with 31 steals, while Marte scored five more runs at 73. I will concede Marte had a better season, but not seven rounds worth, and with Texas willing to let Martin run, taking him Round 6 is totally reasonable.

Marcell Ozuna: I like to pair Ozuna with Martin, snatching the Marlin round 5 or so. No one seems to challenge that, and again, if he just increases his .269-22-85 totals by 10%, that would mean numbers that could be considered for the top three rounds. Ozuna has some nice things going for him in the coming year: it is his third season, he is on an improving team, and with Giancarlo Stanton as the stud outfielder, and Christian Yelich as the next big thing, Marcell kind of slides right on through, almost as an afterthought. Take advantage.

Yordano Ventura: Again, I like Ventura better than a lot of guys, and I am totally happy with him as a #2 or #3 starter. He has gone in general around round 12 or so, but he is young, durable and throws hard. Very hard. His hits to IP did go up second half of last year, but his strikeout-to-walk numbers improved over the same span, so I am thinking he is well on the path to pitching, not throwing. A guy who throws 100 and has command? I want him on my team.

Brandon McCarthy: Hard to believe McCarthy is just 32, but he turned in solid numbers last year, and is lasting till Rounds 16-17, sometimes later. Meaning I am happy to bag him as a #4 or #5 starter around the 15th round. He struck out 175 last year over 200 innings and with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke locking up the ace slots, McCarthy is much like Ozuna: the kind of guy you can ideally slip by under the radar, or at least before your mates realized they might have made a mistake dismissing him as such.

Jorge Soler: He was nabbed in the ninth round of a few mocks I did, which is ok, and means maybe a .275-15-70 line would be pretty good for round 13, but he needs to steal to justify a ninth round pick with an outfield that is so deep at this juncture. For sure, Soler can indeed hit the totals baselined above, at that does make him a decent gamble; however, part of the trick of grabbing players who can deliver upon potential ahead of the rest is to not gamble too much. There is a difference between a crapshoot and a calculated risk, after all.

Rusney Castillo: The American League's version of Soler, though Castillo is 28, with a lot more experience. And, we know how well in general the Cuban imports have fared in the Bigs. I would take Castillo over Soler for just that reason, in fact eighth or ninth round, depending upon needs and the league makeup, is a perfect time. 

Last Updated on Monday, 09 February 2015 09:10
 
Mock Prep PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 02 February 2015 00:00

Well, football is over thanks to some play calling that reminds me of Brian Sipe trying to beat the Raiders back in 1979, I think it was.

Which means bring on baseball, full speed.

If you really want to do some prep work for the coming season, I suggest you participate in Mock Drafts.

Mocks are a lot of fun, but more important, they give you an idea of the depth of the player pool, as well as the perceived value of the drafters of players (not to be confused with ADP, although oddly, mocks do set ADP).

The other thing about Mocks is they allow you to try things; that is, to draft a different roster, in different slots, and in different formats to get a feel of what might work, and what won't.

A few of the things I would suggest you think about while mocking are:

--If you are in a mixed format, try to resist drafting Clayton Kershaw in the first round. No doubt Kershaw is great, but pitching is so deep this year that it is better to load up with counting stats first.

--Similarly, outfield is deliciously deep. Not that I wouldn't take Giancarlo Stanton in the first round, but if there is a question, there are a lot of outfielder speed/power options that are mid-range selections.

--Again, if in a 12-team format, see about letting go of Closer till the end. Think of it this way: if there are 12 teams, and each grabs a pair of closers, there still should be six left. In the drafts I have done, I have saved my final three slots for closers, and grabbed a combo of Joe Nathan, Sergio Romo, Santiago Casilla, Fernando Rodney and Casey Janssen. Now, I realize these guys are not Craig Kimbrel, but, at least one of them will keep his closer gig, and perhaps all three. But, while other guys are snatching up Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen in the middle rounds, you can indeed grab one of those speedy outfielders, or some other hitter figuring in a normal scheme, you can always grab a second closer via the waiver wire.

Just for fun, here are the two mocks I completed last week, with the players I grabbed in the appropriate round (my pick slot is in parenthesis).

By the way, you can go to RealTime Sports and CouchManagers to sign up for free mocks.

1. Miguel Cabrera (7)/Anthony Rizzo (12)

2. Josh Donaldson/Anthony Rendon

3. Yoenis Cespedes/Madison Bumgarner

4. Matt Kemp/George Springer

5. Zack Greinke/Kole Calhoun

6. Kolten Wong/Zack Greinke

7. Sonny Gray/Leonys Martin

8. Marcell Ozuna/Alex Wood

9. Andrew Cashner/Rusney Castillo

10. Yordano Ventura/Gio Gonzalez

11. Leonys Martin/Matt Carpenter

12. Rusney Castillo/Lucas Duda

13. Gio Gonzalez/Mike Zunino

14. Erick Aybar/Lorenzo Cain

15. Mike Zunino/Alcides Escobar

16. Brandon Belt/Mike Fiers

17. Anibal Sanchez/Chase Utley

18. Eric Hosmer/John Jaso

19. John Jaso/Wily Peralta

20. Jedd Gyorko/Kris Bryant

21. Joe Nathan/Joe Nathan

22. Sergio Romo/Sean Doolittle

23. Tyler Clippard/Sergio Romo

Last Updated on Monday, 02 February 2015 09:00
 
Pedro versus Kershaw (The Kershaw Report, Part I) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 12 January 2015 00:00

Early in the Mesozoic period of fantasy baseball (with the advent of Daily Games, we are now in the Cenozoic Phase), Pedro Martinez was the Zeus of all pitchers.

From 1997-2003, Pedro was beyond dominant. Martinez was so much better than the next levels of pitchers that it was like comparing Rickey Henderson to Rich Becker.

As an example, during the middle of that seven-year spread (2000), Martinez, now deservedly a member of the Hall of Fame, went 18-6, 1.74, with 284 strikeouts over 217 innings and an 0.737 WHIP. The Major League average ERA that season was 4.76. (In contrast, this past season--Clayton Kershaw's seventh in the Majors--the Dodger Southpaw was 21-3, 1.77 with 239 punch outs over 193.3 innings, while the MLB average ERA was 3.74.)

During that '97-03 span, owned by Pedro, several strategies specifically designed around obtaining the slender hurler were concocted. My favorite was John Hunt--formerly the USA Today's "fantasy guru"--opening the bidding for Martinez' services at $50, a strategy previously unheard of. When Hunt tried it, his LABR (League of Alternative Baseball Reality) mates were certainly caught off guard, for Hunt got crickets, got Pedro, and if memory serves, got a title.

Well, as we can see from the numbers above, pitching overall is now more than a run improved from 2000 (4.76 to 3.74), so though Kershaw is much better than the bulk of his counterparts, the gap is not as much as it was between Pedro and his respective colleagues.

However, the reality is both hurler's first seven Big League seasons, the numbers of Martinez and Kershaw are remarkably close, as you can see below:

Player W L PCT ERA IP H SHO IP H BB K WHIP
Martinez 107 49 0.686 2.84 247 181 11 1351.3 1044 409 1526 1.080
Kershaw 98 49 0.667 2.48 211 209 9 1378.3 1035 424 1445 1.059

Going into the 2015 season, Kershaw, 27, is one year younger than Pedro was going into his eighth season of play, and all these thoughts and comparisons made me wonder just how much of an impact building a team around the Dodger's lefty would pose? Could there be the same impact in 2015 as there was with Martinez in 1998?

I think this could be both fun and interesting to track, so, much like I did the Pedro Report in 1999, during which we tracked the impact/cost of Mr. Martinez on his team and roster, we will look at Kershaw's impact on his leagues--ostensibly 15-team draft, mixed auction, and NL-only auction, and perhaps a couple of other formats where we can get some stats--in the coming year.

I am anticipating one piece on this just prior to the draft, one during the All-Star break, once going into September call-ups, and then one final entry to wrap up the season (though note some of these articles might appear under "Bed Goes Up, Bed Goes Down" once the season starts).

When I solicit data, I hope you will be kind enough to share your parameters as a Kershaw owner.

Last Updated on Monday, 12 January 2015 17:30
 
Top 250 Prospects: Digging Deeper PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 15 December 2014 00:00

Welcome back to the Hotpage, holiday edition.

We are busy completing the final Top 250 Prospect scrub, and the full list will be available as part of our Platinum Package some time over the next week.

But, just to add to the fun, this week let's look at a few of the players I like as sleepers on the list. In other words, maybe not so well known, but maybe worth tracking.

Jose Peraza (#108, 2B, Braves): .339-2-44 for the 20-year-old, split between Lynchberg and Double-A Mississippi. Peraza swiped 60 bags over 114 games, and though he may begin 2015 in the Southern League, continued success means nowhere to go but up.

Daniel Robertson (#12, SS, Athletics): Oakland's first-round pick in 2012, Robertson went .310-15-60 with 37 doubles for Stockton with 72 walks to 94 whiffs, good for a .402 OBP and .873 OPS. That is exactly the kind of line the Athletics love. He is headed to Double-A, so bullet hitting bone time, but Robertson, who will be 22 just before Opening Day, definitely made a mark this year.

Cheslor Cuthbert (#75, 3B, Royals): As a 21-year-old, he went .274-12-64 with ten steals, split between Double-A and Triple-A Omaha. A little bit of a free-swinger (174 walks to 347 whiffs), too much talent being realized so quickly must be tracked.

Lucas Giolito (#14, P, Nationals): Giolito, who will turn 21 come the next break, is young, but his numbers are close to scary in that he is 12-3, 2.17, with 150 strikeouts over 136.6 innings. Just 42 walks and 100 hits over that span mean a 1.03 WHIP, but more interesting is Giolito is a 6'6", 255 pounder. Imagine what he could be when he fills out and gains a little experience.

Robert Whalen (#53, P, Mets): 9-2, 1.94 over 69.6 innings mostly at Savannah last year. He struck out 63, walked 21, and surrendered 48 hits (0.990 WHIP), just two of them homers. Whalen gets his feet wet at High-A to start next year.

Aaron Blair (#60, P, D-Backs): A first round pick in 2013, Blair, 22, shot through three levels, finishing at Double-A Mobile, where he went 4-1, 1.94 over eight starts and 46.3 innings. Blair has whiffed 212 over 203 minor league innings, allowing 68 walks (1.167 WHIP). He is another big guy, at 6'5", 230 pounds.

Jose De Leon (#82, P, Dodgers): 7-0, 2.22 mark over 77 innings, mostly at Rookie ball. De Leon whiffed 119 hitters, walked just 21, and allowed just three homers of the 58 hits collected off the 22-year-old right-hander. High-A looms to start 2015.

Last Updated on Monday, 15 December 2014 09:24
 
Mastersball Top 250 Prospect Preview PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 01 December 2014 00:00

It is the holiday season, and what better gift can a fantasy owner get than a shot at the potential next big thing?

Well, now for the 17th year, we are happy to present the Mastersball Top 250 Prospects, although in fairness, when I did my first list in 1998, it was just a Top 100.

Still, over the years, we have done pretty well at projecting successful prospects, for though there are names who are familiar, but sometimes we identify players a little ahead of the curve, like Joc Pederson (#8 in 2014), Yordano Ventura (#51 in 2013) and Wilmer Flores (#16 in 2013) which can be a good thing in keeper leagues.

For the archives, while all players are rated based upon age and relative level of success, pitchers are valued for displaying a combination of dominance and control, while hitters are graded on power and an ability to control the strike zone.

The entire Top 250 will be available mid-December as part of our Platinum Package but today, we are happy to announce the Top 10 names for 2015.

So, here goes:

1. Dilson Herrera (2B, Mets): The keystone player who won't turn 21 until next August, Herrera hit .323-13-71 with 33 doubles and 23 swipes split between St. Lucie and Binghamton last year, before getting a September call-up. At Citi he hit a respectable .220-3-11 over 18 games. Bear in mind he was just 20, and weighs just 150 pounds (Herrera is 5'10"), so when he fills out, more pop should ensue.

2. Victor Sanchez (P, Mariners): Sanchez does not turn 20 until January, but at 6'0", he outweighs Herrera by 55 pounds. He spent all of 2014 at Jackson, and went 7-6, 4.19 over 124.6 frames, with 97 whiffs to 36 walks, good for a 1.291 WHIP. Sanchez did get hurt by the long ball last year (17 allowed) but again, he is very young and that is pretty good success adjusting to the toughest jump in the Minors.

3. Carlos Correa (SS, Astros): Sought after in 2014, Correa hit a fine .325-6-57 over 62 games, with 16 doubles, 20 steals and a good .379 OBP (36 walks to 45 strikeouts). A broken fibula is the reason Correa's season was cut short, but expect him to appear at Minute Maid soon, helping lead the charge to the Astros resurgence.

4. Joc Pederson (OF, Dodgers): Pederson was, as noted, #8 last year, and #18 on our list in 2013, and now his presence likely spells the end of time for one among Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier. He hit .303-33-71 at Albuquerque last year before the Bums advanced the outfielder, where he only hit .143-0-0, but walked nine times to 11 strikeouts. Time to show what he can do at the Show.

5. Jose Berrios (P, Twins): Minnesota has some nice young hitting, but, what the team needs are arms, and perhaps Berrios will help that search. Berrios, who turns 21 in May, shot through three levels within the Twins system last year, putting together a 12-8, 2.76 record over 140 innings, with 140 strikeouts to 38 walks (1.114 WHIP). The right-hander's time at Triple-A was brief (one game, three innings), so expect Berrios to start the season back at Rochester, but keep an eye open for him.

6. Henry Owens (P, Red Sox): A big (6'6", 205 lbs.) Southpaw, out of Huntington Beach, Owens was 17-5, 2.94 over 159 innings split between Double-A and Triple-A last season. Owens notched 170 strikeouts and a WHIP of 1.132, and should see time at Fenway in 2015. Owens, who will be 22 on Opening Day, logged in at #25 on our list in 2014.

7. Wendell Rijo (2B, Red Sox): As an 18-year-old, Rijo put up a solid .254-9-46 with 27 doubles and 16 swipes at Class-A level Greenville in the Sally League last year, with 56 walks to 103 strikeouts (.348 OBP). Boston has some nice stuff happening in their infield, and it is reasonable to expect Rijo to finish 2015 at Double-A Portland. He is just the kind of guy to stash on the back end of your Ultra reserve list at least for one season. 

8. Eduardo Rodriguez (P, Red Sox): Got that? Three BoSox in a row? On a team that already has Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Jackie Bradley, Jr., Garin Cecchini, and now Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. Rodriguez, who was a 2014 trade deadline acquisition from the Orioles (in exchange for Andrew Miller), was 3-1, 0.96 after the swap at Portland, and had a total 3-7, 4.79 mark over 120 innings last year, including time at Bowie before the swap. The lefty was #2 on our list last year after a 10-7, 3.41 record in the Baltimore chain as a 20-year-old.

9. German Marquez (P, Rays): The 19-year-old was 5-7, 3.21 last year over 98 innings for Bowling Green. Marquez struck out 95 while walking just 29, and notched a 1.143 WHIP. As with Rijo, look for a jump to Double-A by the end of 2015 and that should tell a lot as to whether Marquez has "it" or not, but for now it looks like he does.

10. Kris Bryant (3B, Cubs): A monster .325-43-110 2014 split between Tennessee and Iowa, Bryant also swiped 15 bags and walked 86 times to 162 whiffs with a 1.098 OPS over 138 games. I saw him at the Fall League, and while I am not sure if Bryant is a third sacker at Wrigley, he is going to be playing somewhere on the north side next year, and will be part of a cluster of Cubs that will be good by the end of 2015, and contenders in 2016.

Last Updated on Monday, 01 December 2014 13:19
 
Arizona Fall League Review PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 10 November 2014 00:00

I will admit that during the season, I do look at the numbers of minor leaguers. In fact, I write about them, but I try not to get fixated on the stats or the players so that when I go to the Fall League, I judge players as objectively, based upon what I see, as permits. Meaning I don't read or listen to scouting reports, and analysis of swings or wind-ups.

Still, I saw five games last week, including the Rising Stars contest, so here are my thoughts.

Aaron Judge (Yankees, OF): Judge is a big guy, with big power (he clobbered a pair of homers in Mesa last Thursday) and also a great arm in right field (he threw a runner out, and kept another from advancing from second on a deep fly, simply out of respect). Judge is hitting .297-4-14 for Scottsdale and the Bombers #1 pick in 2013 moved up to High-A this year (.283-8-33 over 66 games) to finish 2014. He starts next year at Double-A, and has a nice chance of making the Majors next year.

Dalton Pompey (Jays, OF): Drafted out of high school in 2010, Pompey has some major speed (he hit three triples, including one in the Rising Stars game, and I saw them all) along with swiping three of his 13 bases the week I was in the Valley of the Sun. Pompey climbed four levels in 2014, logging .317-9-51 totals at three minor league levels with 43 steals and an excellent 52 walks to 84 whiffs. Pompey finished his season in the Majors (.231-1-4 over 17 games) and could well challenge for a job in 2015.

Gregory Bird (Yankees, 1B): Hitting .318-6-20 at the Fall League, Bird launched a tremendous home run at the Rising Stars game and was on base eight of the 13 at-bats I saw. A fifth round high school selection in 2011, Bird finished 2014 at Double-A Trenton (.253-7-11 over 27 games) and will likely return to Double-A to start 2015. But, he is the heir apparent to Mark Teixeira.

Roman Quinn (Phillies, OF): I saw Quinn hit a triple, a single, and walk three times, scoring four runs over two games in Arizona. A second round high school pick in 2011, the outfielder hit .257-7-36 with 32 swipes for Clearwater over 88 games, and had 14 Fall League steals. He definitely has wheels, but I'm not sure if Quinn is more than a bench player over the long haul.

Tyler Austin (Yankees, OF): The Yankees might have been struggling with age over the past few years, but add Austin, a 13th round pick in 2011, in with Bird and Judge, and there is plenty to be optimistic about. Austin has hit .304-2-13 at the AFL, and went 6-for-8 over the pair of games I saw him, adding a great left field assist, throwing out Cal Towey who was trying to score from second on a single. Austin hit .275-9-47 over 105 games at Double-A Trenton, and does have some defense as noted. He does need to step it up in 2015 at Double-A as a 23-year-old, however, to show he is indeed part of the Bronx future.

Tony Renda (Nationals, 2B): Gotta love the guys who went to U.C. Berkeley, which is where the Nats drafted Renda out of, in the second round in 2012. Renda went 4-for-9 over a pair of games, and then grabbed a Rising Stars single as well, showing a good swing and eye. Renda hit .307-0-47 and stole 19 at Potomac with 43 walks to 59 strikeouts before heading to Arizona. He is hitting .217-0-7 there, meaning I might have seen most of his offense so far. Still, keep an eye on Renda, who could grab the keystone slot and move Anthony Rendon to third permanently.

Shifting to pitching, I will honestly admit that I saw no one at the Fall League who really caught my eye. Mark Appel, for example, looked completely pedestrian. 

The three arms I did think were at least interesting are:

Tyler Glasnow (Pirates, RHP): A fifth round pick (almost all these guys were high school selections), Glasnow had the only fastball I saw that actually popped in the catcher's mitt, and he also had a slider (or was it a curve? Not a lot of break, and looked like a slider to me) that had a sharp tail and was delivered just like his fastball. Glasnow went 12-5, 1.74 at High-A Bradenton with 157 whiffs over 124 innings during the season, and logged a 1-1, 3.12 mark over six AFL starts for Scottsdale.

Archie Bradley (Diamondbacks, RHP): Bradley started the Rising Stars game, and allowed just a hit and a walk. He was not dominant, but looked ok. Still, he went just 3-7, 4.45 over three levels in the D-Backs system this year, not that good for a #1 pick and #7 overall. On the other hand, Archie did sign a foul ball I caught, so I give him props for that.

Tyler Rogers (Giants, RHP): A tenth round pick in 2013, Rogers is a flier if ever there was one. He did have a great underhand Dan Quisenberry delivery, which is what caught my attention. But, Rogers threw 72 frames at High-A San Jose, going 4-0, 2.00, with 72 whiffs to just 22 walks and a homer allowed. So, maybe my eyes know what they are doing after all. A sleeper, but one I like.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 11 November 2014 01:12
 
Hotpage September 29, 2014 (Finale) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 29 September 2014 00:00

Well, another season has passed, and once again a very exciting final day, with Jordan Zimmermann throwing a no-no over the Fish to lead into the postseason, and Sonny Gray tossing a six-hit shutout to cement Oakland's third straight postseason appearance.

I am closing out this time with five pitchers who make me nervous going into 2015. As usual, in selecting these pitchers, they could be a nice gamble, but I would be careful not to overspend.

Justin Verlander (Tigers): Verlander's slip really began last year, but the bottom has kind of fallen out this season. I cannot help but think of the righty in 2013, in a jam, and all he did was try to throw harder and lose his command. Verlander is far along in his career that he should indeed be a polished pitcher, and not a thrower, but his 223 hits over 208 frames and 1.398 WHIP tells me he will be hard headed using a change effectively.

C.J. Wilson (Angels): So odd, in that Wilson escaped a serious hitter's park, seeking much more cavernous Anaheim, and all he has done is slump. Actually, the 85 walks he allowed this year is the same total as last season, but Wilson has tossed 30 fewer innings, and a WHIP of 1.446. I want no part of him.

Justin Masterson (Cardinals): I really thought Masterson would flourish with the swap to stead St. Louis, but I could not have been more wrong. The righty was 2-3, 7.53 over eight starts after the swap, much worse incredibly than the 4-6, 5.51 he notched for the Tribe before the trade. However, Masterson is one of those Saberhagenmetric guys who has a good year, a bad year, a good year, a bad year, and since the odd years seem to be the good ones, I would have no problem nabbing him as a reserve player or as a late starter for a buck who I can stream as appropriate.

Joe Nathan (Tigers): Nathan did save 35, though he blew seven, and posted awful closer numbers of a 4.81 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP. Maybe there is just something inherent in being in the Tigers pen, and thus imploding accordingly, but Detroit paid him $20 million through 2015, so I would expect him to get the ball. Second closer at best, though, and no more than $9 for that in an AL-only format.

Fernando Rodney (Mariners): Much like Nathan, Rodney is signed through next year, and his 48 saves were great, but he does have trouble with his control, and a closer with a 1.342 WHIP isn't all that good. I see the eventual transition to Brandon Maurer, but expect Rodney to get the ball in the spring. Still, last legs at a position that has become more than volatile this year, and will likely continue to be so.

That will do it for this season as I go into Winter mode.

Please come back the second Monday in November for my Arizona Fall League review, and the second week of December for my 2015 top 250 prospect list.

As always, thanks so much for your readership and support. And, do look for some big changes in 2015!

Last Updated on Monday, 29 September 2014 08:35
 
Hotpage September 22, 2014 (Week 26) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 22 September 2014 00:00

As we wind down a season that is still rather uncertain with respect to a Bay Area post-season, we can finish up the last couple of Hotpages with some folks I would be shy of in the coming season, starting with perhaps the most interesting rookie of 2014, Billy Hamilton (OF, Reds).

No one ever questioned Hamilton's speed, an important aspect of the game, and just his presence on the bases might be at the Major League level. But, back in March, I made an argument that Ben Revere was a much better gamble than Hamilton, so let's just see:

Player ADP Tout $ LABR $ AB R SB CS AVG OBP OPS
Hamilton 60 22 28 554 72 56 23 .255 .296 .657
Revere 195 19 19 572 68 47 8 .308 .325 .690

So, not a huge difference in Tout, but $9 in LABR, and an amazing 135 NFBC ADP differential, and that is enough to win or lose a title.

As I have noted a few weeks back, when looking at the young hitters I like, and why, the focus went to walks and strikeouts. I really look to those numbers in both pitchers and hitters, as a matter of fact, for the more walks a hitter gets, generally the better a judge of the zone he is. Similarly, the more often he will get on base, the more often the chance for something to happen on his behalf.

The corollary is that a pitcher who does not allow walks has a better command of the zone, and, thus the less guys will get on base, and similarly there will be fewer chances for a run to score.

So, back to Hamilton, I simply don't see him getting better at the zone, or at reading pitchers (the 23 caught stealings are a tad alarming). True, his 56 steals probably put you near, if not atop the swipes category in your league, but among the big stealers--Hamilton, Gordon, Altuve and Revere--Billy was the worst investment by a long shot.

I think 2015 will show his true colors--that is, whether he can learn or simply be exploited--as a hitter, and for a few bucks (less than $10, depending upon the format) I can see the steals gamble. Chances are, though, I would rather let someone else crapshoot and try to scrounge my steals from a bunch of Lorenzo Cain-type guys. 

Brandon Moss (1B/OF, Athletics): I suspect no one misses the presence of Yoenis Cespedes like Moss, who has hit 55 dingers for Oakland over the past two years, but just two of them since the trade of the former Oakland left fielder. I think he can still bang 20 big flies with 400-plus at-bats, but I see all his other numbers taking a tumble.

Charlie Blackmon (OF, Rockies): Raise your hand if this surprises you. Take away Charlie's red-hot April (.374-5-18 with seven swipes) and you have a fairly pedestrian .268-13-53-21 line over 470 at-bats. Serviceable as a fourth outfielder, sure, but nothing to build around or gamble on. In fact, as a freeze over $5, that is a gamble.

Danny Santana  (OF/SS, Twins): I have to tell you that I have Santana as a $1 FAAB purchase, having gotten him hoping for ten swipes right when Minnesota advanced him. So, the fact that I have his .318-7-39 line with 19 steals for the measly dollar is terrific (it is also the kind of payoff that wins pennants), not to mention his playing both in the outfield and middle infield. But, 18 walks to 87 strikeouts tells me the league of pitchers will adjust and exploit him next year. Truth is I want him to do well, but I am not willing to go too far in support of it.

Jay Bruce (OF, Reds): I have noted for a few years that Bruce was the new Adam Dunn, and got a lot of pushback in saying so. And, the reality is, I like Dunn, who does have power and can take a walk. In fact, he is one of those guys who hits .220, but can register a .350 OBP in the process. So, I meant it as a compliment.

I will now change my assessment: Dunn is a lot better. I think the league has indeed figured Bruce out, and this is his level. Unlike Dunn, when Bruce hits .220, his OBP is .280. 

Pass.

Last Updated on Monday, 22 September 2014 09:22
 
Hotpage September 15, 2014 (Week 25) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 15 September 2014 00:00

Since we looked at some hitters I covet going into 2015 last week, this time let's look at some arms that might well still be reasonable if not a bargain next year, but could be high priced/top tier selections in the near future.

Brandon Maurer (Mariners): "Michaels has lost it", you are saying to yourself, "because he not only has a guy with a 1-4, 5.00 record this year on his list, he started with him." Well, if ever I have had one of those Zen hunches, it is about Maurer, who was 1-4, 7.42 over 32.3 frames as a starter but when the M's moved him to the pen, he was 0-0, 2.35 over 30.6 innings, with 32 whiffs and a 0.967 WHIP. Fernando Rodney is signed through next year, but any bets who gets the closing job in 2016? Get him cheap and sit on him (I'm doing just that with Maurer in my Strat-O-Matic league).

Dellin Betances (Yankees): More of the same as Maurer, but I think this monster could take over next year. 5-0, 1.37 with a 0.759 WHIP over 85.6 innings. With 128 whiffs? Only Sean Doolittle's (16.2) strikeout-to-walk rate beats Betances' 13.4, and at 6'8", 260 pounds, Betances could be big and durable enough to set records.

Jacob deGrom (Mets): A ninth round selection in 2010, he has gone 21-11, 3.62 over 58 minor league starts and 322.3 inings. de Grom struck out a modest 267 hitters, and posted a 1.284 WHIP in the Minors, and then successfully jumped to the Show, turning in a 8-6, 2.62 mark over 127.3 innings, with a strong 121 whiffs and a 1.147 WHIP. With Zack Wheeler, and the return of Matt Harvey next year, the Mets have the makings of a very nice little rotation ahead. Now, if they can get some sticks to help out, the team can cause some trouble for the rest of the league.

Marcus Stroman (Blue Jays): What is not to like about the first round Toronto selection of 2012, who has adjusted to the big leagues very quickly. Inserted into the rotation in May, the righty has responded with a 10-5, 2.87 record, and a 1.160 WHIP over 114.6 innings. Stroman struck out 97, and kept the walks down to just 26. At 5'9", Stroman reminds me a lot of Tom Gordon. Really like this kid.

Yordano Ventura (Royals): I hope I don't regret trading Ventura--whom I had as a $1+$3 bargain in the XFL for Matt Kemp in an attempt to push for a title this year. To be sure, Kemp is a keeper, but Ventura, still just 23, picked it right up going into the rotation and helping to push the Royals to the next level. His 12-10, 3.27 mark over 165 innings is really great, and though Ventura can bring it at around 100 MPH, it is clear in May he determined to pitch rather than throw, earning less whiffs (140 for the season) but improving his control and all that goes with. As he comes into his own, the strikeout numbers will increase: an ace waiting to happen.

Hector Santiago (Angels): After an awful April (0-4, 4.44) and worse May (0-2, 5.73), Santiago was sent to Charlotte, and only called back to spot start. Since then, however, Santiago has been so good that the team simply could not pull him from the rotation. He is 4-0, 2.04 over 53 second half innings, and though his K:BB rate dropped to 7.6 this year, similarly has his WHIP dropped to 1.265 (from 1.403 last year) and Santiago is poised to toss 200 innings in a year as he goes into a fourth year at 26. I think he will be solid as a cheap but steady #3 guy.

Last Updated on Monday, 15 September 2014 08:03
 
Hotpage September 8, 2014 (Week 24) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 08 September 2014 00:00

As we push through the final month of the 2014 season, let's close out looking at some hitters and pitchers I covet for 2015, and then the inverse: hitters and pitchers that I would drop for a higher value to finish up.

Joe Panik (Giants, 2B): Interestingly, the first of three keystone players I want to cover today, and Panik is a guy who really caught my eye at the AFL a couple of years back with a laser homer he hit.

A first rounder of the Giants in 2011, Panik has moved up a level a year since signing, but his stock dropped a bit in 2013 when the now 23-year-old logged a .257-4-57 line at Double-A Richmond, with a somewhat anemic .680 OPS.

Nevertheless, San Francisco pushed Panik to Fresno, and he responded nicely with a .321-5-45 mark before getting the big league call, but the thing I really like about Joe are the 171 walks to the 180 whiffs, good for a .365 OBP, and an indicator of an ability to judge the strike zone.

Panik only played in 15 first half games after the call-up, and he struggled, hitting .212-0-4 over 52 at-bats, but the second sacker showed that ability to rise to the occasion, hitting .350-1-10 since the break, with 14 walks to 23 whiffs and a .358 OBP over the course of the year.

I think of him as Dustin Pedroia lite--not the overall power and speed, but just a notch down, and the kind of guy who will hit .295 with 10 homers, 35-plus doubles and 85 runs hitting out of the #2 slot.

Tommy La Stella (Braves, 2B): Drafted the same year as Panik, albeit in the eighth round, LaStella has excelled all the way up the chain, posting a minor league .407 OBP (136 walks to just 102 whiffs) over 258 games, and contributing an ..881 OPS with a base of .322-21-167 with 150 runs scored.

La Stella steals a little better than Panik, but again, he just looks like a long-term #2 batter who will hit around .290, steal 15 bags, and clobber 35 or so two-baggers.

Jedd Gyorko (2B, Padres): OK, not a rookie, but, if you are thinking of dumping, first half, before he sat down for his injury, Gyorko hit .162-5-24 over 56 games, and since coming back, .254-4-24 over 35 contests. Give him a break. I think you will be glad.

Robbie Grossman (OF, Astros): Another guy who impressed during the AFL, Grossman is one of those guys who has tools, just not eye-popping ones, makes good plays and uses his skills and smarts to his advantage. 

Drafted in the 6th round in 2008 by the Bucs, Grossman went to Houston as part of the Wandy Rodriguez deal in 2012.

Over six minor league seasons and 625 games, Grossman produced .278-38-231 totals, with a strong .383 OBP (396 walks to 625 strikeouts) to go along with 113 steals and 450 runs.

Grossman performed well enough over his first dip in the Bigs last year, hitting .268-4-21 over 63 games, with a .332 OBP, but this year he was beyond slow coming out of the box, earning a demotion back to Oklahoma City.

Now back, and somewhat ensconced in the outfield, Grosman is hitting just .211-6-33 over 84 games, but his OBP, at .322, is just ten points below last year despite the 57 point average differential. That is because Grossman has 47 walks to 83 strikeouts this year, as opposed to 23/70 last season.

Now, I admit to a fascination here with walks, but to be clear, a player who understands the strike zone is a player who is likely to continue both improving, and adjusting as a hitter, and in all the guys mentioned, there were improvements, with experience, noted.

Not that I want hitters to be passive, but I do like them to be selective. And, well, walks help OBP, and players can steal and score runs when they walk.

I do see Grossman improving to peaking with numbers a la Shane Victorino. I think he, and his Astro-mates, will be a lot better next year.

Marcell Ozuna (OF, Marlins): It is funny, for in my Strat-O-Matic League, Grossman was selected as a rookie pick last February, leaving me with Ozuna.

Ozuna has a .264-19-79 line as a 23-year-old doing his first full Major League season, and as much as I like Grossman, I like Ozuna even better. As in imagine what he can do as a 26-year-old with a few years of experience under his belt?

Mike Zunino (C, Mariners): Uh, I favor walks, and yet I am talking about a .198-20-49 guy with just 15 free passes to 139 punch-outs? What is this, J.P. Arencibia redux?

Well, Zunino only got 96 minor league games, and there he walks a much better 40 times to 99 strikeouts, to go with a .284-26-86 set of totals.

Pressed into the everyday role having just turned 23, with less than 100 professional games is not easy, and a young catcher's primary charge is calling the game, something Zunino has done very well.

Catchers usually mature into hitting a little later than their position-playing mates, so I am totally willing to give him some slack, and figure he will jump the average by 50 points next year, and the RBI by 20.

The 20 dingers will be just fine, as is.

Last Updated on Monday, 08 September 2014 14:06
 
Hotpage September 1, 2014 (Week 23) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 01 September 2014 00:00

Amazingly, we are again  at another Labor Day, our 19th with you, and as usual I thank you for your support, and hope you are having a great and safe weekend with family and friends.

Out here on the West Coast, I am having trouble watching the Athletics--I just had to flip to "Oh Brother Where Art Thou?" as I could not handle watching Scott Kazmir lose it.

I still think the Athletics will work through this slump, and make it to the post-season, and with a rotation of Jon Lester, Jeff Samardzija and Sonny Gray, that is formidable in a short series.

Similarly, the arrival of Adam Dunn is a good thing, for Dunn is a guy I have liked for a long time, and he is another fellow who fits well into the Oakland role playing scheme, of walks and dingers.

I do think the Athletics loss of Yoenis Cespedes had a bigger impact than the front office imagined, but I also think knowing the Athletics and the law of averages, the team was due for a flat period.

Better to have it now and work to get hot as the post-season begins.

Ok, so to the now, and since it is September 1, it is also roster expansion time. So, this time, let's take a look at some top prospects who might indeed make a first appearance at the show as the season rumbles to a finish.

Topping the list is the next in line for the Cubs--and an outfielder--to help lead the North Siders to the promised land with Jorge Soler.

Signed in 2012, the 22-year-old has blazed a path to The Show that includes just 151 games over two years, from Rookie Ball up, and the outfielder shot through four levels from Class A to the Majors, posting a minor league line of .340-15-57 with an incredible 1.132 OPS, and then picked it right up at Wrigley, going .533-3-7 over his first four games.

Yet another amazing Cuban import, I am not exactly sure just what it is that makes players from the island so much more Major League savvy that any other location on the planet, but it is certainly so. Don't be shy: grab Soler.

I admit to being a sucker for Stanford grads, just like those from UC Berkeley, and St. Louis, deep in young talent, has such an alum in Stephen Piscotty, the team's first round pick in 2012.

Now an outfielder (formerly a third sacker), Piscotty has hit a strong .287-8-66 at Memphis this year, with 31 doubles, 11 swipes and a very good 42 walks to 61 strikeouts (.353 OBP).

Quintessential Cards hitter, he is, making contact, getting on base, and so on. Piscotty should indeed get a call now, and similarly will make a bid for the big league roster next year.

Cleveland might well advance their top prospect, Francisco Lindor, this month. The 20-year-old has done well enough at Triple-A Columbus, hitting .277-5-14 over 37 games. Lindor has been exploited by Triple-A pitchers, having just nine walks to 34 strikeouts, but give him time to learn the zone along with the dazzle of stuff at the higher levels (he did get 40 walks to 61 strikeouts at Double-A Akron this year) and the young heir apparent to Asdrubal Cabrera should be fine.

Look for September time and a challenge to start at short in 2015.

The Mets could advance Noah Syndergaard, the Jays #1 pick in 2010, traded to New York as part of the R.A. Dickey deal. The 6'6", 240-pounder bagged 144 strikeouts at Las Vegas this year over 131 frames (473 over 424.6 minor league innings) though he has been vulnerable to the hits (153) this season.

Still, it is time to see what he can do at the top level, and perhaps the 21-year-old can join Zack Wheeler and Matt Harvey and make an exciting rotation core that might well lead to a Mets renaissance.

Talk about depth, the Dodgers have more outfielders than they know what to do with, hence which way does Joc Pederson go?

The Dodgers' first rounder in 2010 has really ripped it at Albuquerque this year, hitting .303-33-78 with 30 steals and 100 walks to 149 whiffs (.435 OBP).

An early L.A. clinch could indeed earn Pederson some time, but clearly, among Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier, one or more vets will be moved during the off-season to make room for Pederson.

Finally, Carlos Rodon was the #3 pick this year--and first rounder of the White Sox--who is on one of those Tony Cingrani drives to hit the Majors during his first professional year.

Rodon, who was drafted out of North Carolina State, has twirled 24.6 minor league innings since being signed, posting a 0-0, 2.92 record, with 38 strikeouts that includes three Triple-A Birmingham starts.

The 21-year-old southpaw is apparently on a mission, with talent to boot, though he still has some command aspects to tweak (13 walks over those 24.2 innings).

Still, sooner, rather than later.

Last Updated on Monday, 01 September 2014 13:23
 
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