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Written by Lawr Michaels
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Monday, 25 June 2012 00:00 |
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It has been pretty illuminating, pointing out slumping players of whom we expected more, but got less this year, at least so far. So, as with a few names over the past weeks, like first sackers Eric Hosmer and Brandon Belt--both of whom we recommended, and both of whom have heated up--this time we have a litany of veterans to review.
But, let's start with those ever-lovable prospects, beginning in my own back yard with Oakland's new back-up catcher, Derek Norris. Happily, Oakland has dispensed with the likes of Josh Donaldson and Andrew Reddick--both of whom were never more than Quad-A players despites the Athletics best hopes or dreams. But Norris, acquired niftily along with Tommy Milone and Brad Peacock from the Nationals for Gio Gonzalez, is the real backstop deal.
Blessed with both solid power (77 minor league homers over 486 games) and a solid OBP 0f .395 (364 walks to 460 whiffs), Norris can not only handle the load in supporting present catching incumbent Kurt Suzuki, but he could make the popular Oakland start expendable. Catching the final two games of the Bay Bridge series, Norris got his first hit Saturday giving "Zuk" a day off, and Sunday because he had caught rookie starter A.J. Griffin in Sacramento. Norris responded with a game winning three-run walk off jack with two out in the bottom of the ninth. Expect more, and while he might only be a back up for now, he should be a good one. As in Landon Powell, realized. Grab him in your ultra format.
Salvador Perez, signed by the Royals as a free agent out of Venezuela, the 22-year old catcher was on the road last year with K.C. hitting .331-3-21 over 148 at-bats, when a torn meniscus got in the way. Now back in the majors, with his knee intact, coming off .340-0-7, Perez is possibly even a more interesting prospect than Norris, for all that stands in his way is veteran Humberto Quintero. Add him in AL only leagues, and keep an eye in mixed formats.
Tampa, struggling now with injuries to Jeff Niemann and now Jeremy Hellickson, brought up Chris Archer, a fifth-round selection of the Tribe in 2006, Archer went to the Cubs in 2008 as part of the deal for Mark DeRosa, and then was packaged last year along with Sam Fuld and a bevy of prospects for Matt Garza. The owner of a 39-40, 3.89 mark as a minor league starter, Archer can post the whiffs with 669 over 668.1 innings, but is vulnerable to the walk (338). Archer had a nice first major league start (six innings, seven whiffs, three hits, but a loss) against the Nationals for his debut last Wednesday, and though he is a rookie pitcher, Archer has some chops and is on a good team. Worth a risk in an AL only format.
Ok, let's move along to some (un)seasoned vets, starting with a couple of guys I drafted myself. I took Francisco Liriano for my Scoresheet team thinking largely of his good 2010 (14-10, 3.62) anticipating a nice bounceback from last year (9-10, 5.09) especially following Liriano's hot spring (2-1, 2.33 over 27 innings, with 33 whiffs and five walks). Bad initial choice, as Liriano was 0-3, 11.02 in April, though he improved to 1-2, 4.56 over 23 May innings. In June, though, the "old" Liriano seems to have come back in June with an 0-2 mark, but the 3.33 ERA over 24.1 innings with 27 strikeouts and a terrific 0.95 WHIP. Though Liriano is not on a team that will win a lot of games, he may give some good totals, especially with the pressure off. At least I have put him back in my Scoresheet rotation, but a lot of that has to do with injuries to Roy Halladay and Shaun Marcum.
I also own Justin Masterson in the XFL, and had owned him in Tout Wars till a couple of weeks ago when I swapped the Indians starter to my bud Andy Behrens for Carlos Pena. Masterson struggled a lot in April, going 0-2, 5.40 (1.467 WHIP), then 2-2, 4.93 (1.51 WHIP) and as a result, as much as I like Masterson, he became expendable for a hitting gamble. Well, though I have a pair of homers so far from Pena, Masterson has rewarded Andy's trust in June, going 2-2, 1.24 over four starts and 29 innings, with 27 whiffs, just one homer, and a 0.862 WHIP. He's back!
I have always had a sort of up-and-down relationship with the Brave Jair Jurrjens: probably not too different from the rest of you. After the 14-10, 2.60 2009, Jurrjens struggled at 7-6, 4.64 and injuries contributed to disappointment in 2010, but Jurrjens bounced back well with 13-6, 2.96 2011 numbers. However, completely out the window was everything this year with 1-2, 6.75 numbers. We know Jurrjens is a control guy, with 492 strikeouts over his 792.1 innings, meaning he has to be be fine to be successful. Jurrjens can do that, as witnessed by his 2009 and 2011 totals. Looking again at those 1-2, 6.75 totals, remember that Jurrjens picked up his win earlier in the week, with 7.2 good innings, reducing his ERA from 9.37. Forget his ever confusing 3-4, 5.18 minor league numbers at Gwinnett this year, and figure that for now, Jurrjens has his mojo back. Just remember that unlike Masterson and Liriano, dominance is not part of his game, so be prepared to let go, and quickly, as necessary.
Last year Adam Lind hit .251-26-87, though with a crappy .296 OBP. The year before he was .237-23-72, with an even worse .285 OBP, but inexplicably, in 2009 Lind was .305-35-114 with a terrific .385 OBP (58 walks to 110 whiffs). Of course, this year he was as bad as bad could be with Toronto hitting .186-3-11, so off to Las Vegas it was, and there Lind could more than hold his own, hitting .395-8-29 over 124 at-bats, with a .451 OBP (15 walks to 26 strikeouts). Lind should hit well at AAA, though, but those bad on-base numbers at the Show of the last two seasons cause concern. Lind was recalled, but I am thinking a change of scene might be what he needs. In other words, if you are in an AL only or other deep format, you have to give him a shot. Otherwise, pass for now, leaving Lind on your bench till he gives you a reason to do otherwise.
Kevin Youkilis has literally changed Sox--from Blue to White--and this is a great chance for him. Injured largely with Boston this year, Youk not only never got on-track, but with Jacoby Ellsbury and Carl Crawford down, the table was not set as expected. With the Pale Hose and Paul Konerko and Adam Dunn helping out, playing a position that has been a deep dark hole for the White Sox, expect Youkilis to bounce back.
Meanwhile, if Boston had to swap Youk, Brent Lillibridge--who can play all over the place, offer some speed, and some pop--is a perfect antidote. Lillibridge is not a full-timer, meaning his only value is in an AL only or deep mixed format, but despite the .175-0-2 numbers this year, he does have seven swipes, and last year, the outfielder/first baseman/second sacker hit .258-13-29 over 186 at-bats. Like Youk, expect Lillibridge to enjoy the new scene, but again, he won't be a starter, especially with Crawford and Ellsbury on the way back.
Finally, I have Erick Aybar in a couple of leagues: that same Scoresheet League, and also Tout Wars. As he was an expensive ($25 in Tout, and one of eight freezes in the Murphy Scoresheet format) so I was wed to the Angels shortstop. Aybar hit .222-0-5 in April, and not much better at .223-0-6 in May, however, this June, the shortstop has settled back in with .329-1-8 totals, raising his season numbers to an almost respectable .254-1-19. If Aybar keeps it up, and I think he will, expect the average back up around the .280 range, and even figure he can hit double digits in homers, and 15-20 swipes.
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Last Updated on Monday, 25 June 2012 10:40 |
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Written by Lawr Michaels
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Monday, 18 June 2012 14:35 |
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Back in 1996, I remember my league on draft day, speculating the return of Kevin Mitchell. Mitchell, the former Giants MVP, had just signed a deal with the Red Sox a few weeks before our auction, after spending a year in Japan.
At the time there were rules in the league around who could be drafted, and there was a question about Mitchell, who was not yet on a major league roster.
I remember being sort of phlegmatic about it at the time, for I was—and always will be—against changing rules on draft day. On the other hand, I simply did not think that much of Mitchell by that time.
But, I do remember the outfielder being referred to as an “impact player,” who was allowed to be rostered, and in the AL only format, went for $16. For, much to the disagreement of the rest of the league, I said Mitchell was a has-been (I never offered a bid for Mitchell).
.316-8-39 over 237 at-bats was the impact, though the Red Sox swapped Mitchell for Brad Tweedlie to the Reds at the trade deadline, and the Reds released him at the end of the year. He hit .153 the following year for the Indians, and .228 the next for the Athletics over 186 total at-bats in 1998, and that was the end of Mitchell’s career.
So, therein lie the lessons of Vladimir Guerrero and Manny Ramirez, both of whom are now free agents, and both of whom are also likely done with their careers. For, even if they get some major league at-bats between now and oblivion, chances are the word impact no longer fits.
Which means chances are the rebuilt Mariners rotation—which is really just a stopgap one that now features Oliver Perez—should merit some thought before making a roster commitment (even Kevin Millwood scares me). Perez has not pitched in the majors since 2010, and then was 0-5, 6.80 (2.07 WHIP) with the Mets, and though he is still just 30 years of age, well, pass. Perez was 2-2, 4.65 with a 1.61 WHIP at Tacoma before the call-up, so stopgap should scream out to you on the gamble scale.
On the other hand, there are some other young arms that look a bit friendlier, starting with the Rangers Justin Grimm. A fifth-round pick of the Rangers out of University of Georgia in 2010, Grimm has shot through the Texas organization, with 15-6, 2.85 totals over 38 minor league starts. This year at Frisco, Grimm was 8-3, 1.87 over 77 innings, with 67 whiffs to an excellent 14 walks (65 hits for a 1.02 WHIP). Grimm won his first start in the majors Saturday allowing six hits and three runs, striking out seven, but walking none. True, the win was against the punchless Astros, but I like Grimm as a buy.
On Sunday, the Astros responded in kind, giving rookie Dallas Keuchel a start against Texas. A seventh round pick of the Astros in 2009, Keuchel was 24-29, 3.85 over 77 minor league starts and 475 innings. Keuchel is not really dominating (314 strikeouts to 499 hits) as opposed to crafty, and on Houston, avoiding the lefty despite his pretty good debut (five innings, four hits, four walks, and a run) versus the Rangers, there are still likely better options.
One would be the Tigers Justin Turner, who is slated for his 2012 Tigers debut later this week for Jim Leyland’s squad. A first rounder out of high school in 2009, Turner made his major league debut last year (0-1, 8.53 over three starts) and missed out on the Tigers 2012 Opening Day roster due to a sore arm. So, some rest and then time at Lakeland (1-2, 1.66) and the Toledo (2-1, 3.43) was logged, and Thursday Turner will be back in Detroit. He is just 21, but Turner also has a solid WHIP (1.15) over 310 minor league innings, with 256 strikeouts, 274 hits, and 84 walks. Turner is young, and may take some lumps as a youngster, but he is on a pretty good team, with a pretty good resume - which suggests a pretty good gamble.
One last pitcher to troll before we move to some potential power spots is the Cards Joe Kelly, a third rounder of the team, also in 2009. With a profile more akin to that of Keuchel, the University of California, Riverside alum has 21-22, 3.89 minor league totals over 54 starts and 338 innings (25 relief appearances are in there). 337 hits, with 136 walks (1.36 WHIP) suggest an arm that needs to be fine, as do just 280 strikeouts. 14 hits and a pair of walks to just seven strikeouts over 9.1 major league innings confirms this cautionary pitcher, despite his 2.89 ERA. That will likely not last.
Last week I noted that Eric Hosmer was on the verge of some bigger numbers, and he has upped his average to a much more respectable .228 (remember Hosmer was near the Mendoza line just a few weeks ago. Well, I have had a hard time convincing my band mates in the Biletones (Bill Alberti, Tom Nelson, and Paul McArdle) that Brandon Belt will be ok, but we all have to be patient until he feels confident.
Well, it looks like he now is indeed that. Over the past ten days Belt is .308-3-9, and those homers were not just Belt’s first of the season, but hit in consecutive games. The NL counterpart to Hosmer, Belt is now at .248-3-24 with a good .360 OBP. As with Hosmer, those who are disgruntled with Belt are likely willing to let him go. Now is the time to pounce.
Boston brought back Ryan Kalish—the 13th outfielder to hit their roster this year—after over a year off due to shoulder surgery. Kalish has shown he can hit at Triple-A, hitting .378-4-10 at Pawtucket since returning to play after the torn labrum surgery. In 2010, prior to the injury, Kalish was .252-4-24 over 163 at-bats. Kalish also scored 26, and swiped ten bags, meaning there is some talent there, and in an AL only format, he is worth the gamble for sure.
Speaking of Ryans, the Tigers recalled Ryan Raburn, who was sent to the minors after hitting a pathetic .146-1-8. In Toledo, the second baseman/outfielder was hardly better at .196-1-3. But, don’t dismiss Raburn entirely, as he is a horrible first halfer with .216-21-90 totals before the break as a major leaguer, but .300-33-122 numbers after. Plus, that position flexibility is a nice thing. Raburn is a nice fetch now before he gets heated up with the dog days.
I have long been a fan of the Rangers Leonys Martin, who seems to have a life like another prospect I like in Lorenzo Cain. It seems like these guys get untracked, get some attention, and even a job, and then get injured. The 24-year old was hitting .344-5-22 with a terrific .414 OBP (15 walks to 22 whiffs) and seven swipes. The biggest problem for Martin, however, will be playing time. The Rangers are so good and deep, well, what can I say? Still, I do love the guy and his future prospects.
Finally, if you want a hot bat, take a look at Casey McGehee, who over the past week has hit .429-2-6 over 21 at-bats. Now hitting .243-3-18, McGehee and his hot bat—and don’t forget, he qualifies at first and third—are surely worth a gamble in NL only formats. Remember, ride the hot hand while you can!
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Last Updated on Monday, 18 June 2012 14:59 |
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Written by Lawr Michaels
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Monday, 11 June 2012 00:00 |
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Welcome back to the Hotpage as we stride into the middle of June, just a month from the All Star Break and the dividing line between those all important first and second half splits. So, while we have that in mind, let's start this week by looking at one of last year's Super Two promotions, Eric Hosmer.
Just 21 a little over a year ago, Hosmer exploded with a terrific .293-19-78 rookie campaign over just 128 games, logging a solid .799 OPS, very good for a first year player thrust into the limelight. So, there were high expectations this season for Hosmer to follow up, and even improve the totals. Unfortunately, Hosmer has seemingly disappointed.
Well, last week, as the Royals and Athletics hooked up for a series, I heard an interview with KC manager Ned Yost, who said that the main problem with Hosmer and his low production was balls were simply not dropping for him. He was hitting the ball on the nose, all right, and having good at-bats, but simply not hitting them "where they ain't."
So, take note that as of May 25, Hosmer was seven points below Mendoza at .193, but since has gone .320 (17-for-53)-2-8, bringing his season totals up to .226-7-29, and suggesting Yost was right. If you have him still, good for you: if you can take advantage of a disillusioned owner, get him. Hotter is yet to come, I suspect.
I am not certain if there is a deader spot on any diamond than first base in Oakland, where the team has been reduced to playing Adam Rosales, after giving up on Daric Barton and now Kila Ka'aihue. Crazy that even Casey Kotchman has a job, but in what should be the easiest spot to fill--left handed hitter and fielder who can hit with some power--Oakland continues to struggle. I mean, we all saw Moneyball by now, and how easily Scott Hatteberg adjusted, right? Well, the latest in line is Brandon Moss, who actually homered during his first game with the Oaklanders. Moss does have 763 at-bats in the majors under his belt (.235-16-79) and that breaks down to .235-10-51 with 24 doubles over 162 games. And that, believe it or not, is way better than anything they have gotten out of the slot since, Scott Hatteberg, perhaps? Not that I am recommending Moss, but if you need a stick in an AL only format, well, he won't hurt you any more than he will the Athletics.
While we are in Oakland, I realize Brian Fuentes has five saves, but ask, "was it worth it?" And, clearly, Grant Balfour is better suited to setup, which means Ryan Cook is a fine acquisition right now. With a 1-1, 0.69 mark over 26 innings, that includes an 0.846 WHIP (seven hits, 15 walks--three intentional--and 25 strikeouts) for a guy who converted 19 with the Dbacks organization last year (1-5, 2.21 over 61 innings) this seems to be a no-brainer. Of course, as noted above, some things just come tough for the Athletics and first basemen and saves seem to be on the list of late.
Looking to a couple of recently promoted arms, the Braves brought forth Julio Teheran again. Again, to remind us, means last year the then 20-year old Colombian struggled a might over five games and three starts with 1-1, 5.03 totals over 19.2 innings. Teheran was a revelation at Triple-A Gwinnett with 15-3, 2.55 over 144.2 innings and 24 starts, and this year at an aged 21, he has been ok with 5-2, 3.15 totals over 11 starts and 54.1 innings. Certainly Teheran appears to have a bright future, and clearly it is time to cut his major league chops. Still, it could be lumpy, and while this visit was a one-day stint to cover for the injured Tim Hudson, only in the deepest of leagues with necessary gambles as the option should you have Teheran active when he inevitably returns.
In the same vein, the Padres promoted Brad Boxberger to help bolster their ailing corps (Tim Stauffer just went on the 60-day DL, while Cory Luebke is lost for the season). The first round pick of the Reds in 2009 (Boxberger was actually picked in the 20th round by the Royals in 2006, but chose USC over) the right hander was part of the Padres spoils when the team parted with Mat Latos (and a deal that is looking very good for San Diego), Boxberger was 1-2, 4.70 at Tucson this year and though he walked 15 and allowed 22 hits over his 23 Triple-A innings, so did he strike out 35. Petco should help him some, and were I to need to make the gamble suggested above with Julio Teheran, I would first go with Boxberger simply because his park is friendlier to pitchers and he has an outisde shit at some saves if Huston Street is traded now that he is back and pitching well.
Continuing with pitchers this time, this week's closer of the week is Seattle's Tom Wilhelmsen, who was born in the same Tucson where Boxberger played the first part of this season (it is always important to tie all of this together). The 28-year old was originally selected by the Brewers in 2002 (seventh round) Wilhelmsen was signed as a free agent by Seattle, and has been 16-12, 3.47 in the minors, basically as a starter, over 238.1 innings. Wilhelmsen has a pretty good minor league WHIP of 1.23 (215 hits, 80 walks, with 193 strikeouts) and well, like Brian Fuentes above, grab the saves where you can at this point. Right?
B.J. Rosenberg was the Phillies 13th rounder out of the University of Louisville in 2008, and the 6'3" right-hander has a solid minor league resume of 19-11, 2.91, over 143 games and 262.2 innings, with 14 starts and 80 games finished (38 saves). Rosenberg has 297 strikeouts to just 84 walks, with 215 hits allowed (1.22 WHIP). Rosenberg is probably just good for relief--at least for now--but the 26-year old could be a nice stabling force in NL only leagues, adding some whiffs and the occasional win.
Finishing with a couple of starters, Boston gave Daisuke Matsuzaka his first start this season as part of interleague play against the Nationals, who knocked the righty around for four runs and five hits (plus a walk) over five innings and 80 pitches. DiceK did strike out eight, however, which is pretty good, but his 1.396 ratio is worrisome to me. As are the general troubles the Red Sox seem to attract over the past couple of seasons. He is probably an okay risk in an AL format, but I would be cautious anywhere else (and even at that).
Finally, the Brewers Michael Fiers was a 22nd round selection of the Brew Crew in 2009 out of Southeastern University. Fiers conquered AA (5-3, 2.64 at Huntsville) and then AAA (8-0, 1.11 at Nashville) last year for a cumulative 13-3, 1.86 record over 126 innings. The righty whiffed 132 whille walking just 36 and allowing 86 hits (a killer 0.94 WHIP) although he struggled more at Nashville this season with a 1-3, 4.42 mark (1.21 WHIP). At 26, Fiers is 1-2, 4.50 over three starts and 18 innings. And, though he has allowed 23 hits, Fiers has struck out 17 while walking only two hitters. That last number tells me Fiers could indeed be a nice play in a deep NL format.
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Last Updated on Monday, 11 June 2012 08:57 |
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Written by Lawr Michaels
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Monday, 04 June 2012 00:00 |
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What better way to enter the third month of the season than with Johan Santana and his wonderful--and amazing--feat of not just tossing the Mets first no-no in history, but one during his fine comeback season. Stories like this make baseball and its lore, well, storied.
On the other hand it does look as if Jamie Moyer has completed his interesting and prolonged run, along with another name who is the new Willy Loman of journeymen players, it seems, in Bill Hall. Hall was back up with the Orioles for a day, then went back down as the team picked up Steve Pearce from the Yankees. Hard to believe the one time almost Red Sox (drafted, but never signed in 2004), Pirate, Twin, Yank, and now Bird is still just 29. And, after his .333-31-113 Brandon Wood-type season, Pearce was a hot item, but he never lived up to much of that promise any more than Wood has. Basically he fits in well as a complement to Mark Reynolds. Pearce is proof that every player drafted does indeed have a big year in them somewhere. He is also proof that the game is as hard on its players as it is on our expectations.
Before we look at a this week's retinue of major leaguers to consider, if you are playing ultra rules and can grab a minor leaguer (and while we are discussing the Orioles), take a look at Baltimore's #1 pick of last year, Dylan Bundy. Bundy did not sign in time to get any playing time in last year, so his debut was this season at Delmarva, where over his first 30 innings he whiffed 40, allowed five hits, a pair of walks and just a couple of unearned runs. Those are ridiculous totals--tantamount to Matt Moore's overwhemling totals of last year--and if you can grab Bundy and stash him for a couple of years, you will be justly rewarded.
Back to the Mets and their pitching for a paragraph, 24-year old Elvin Ramirez has been hurling in the minors since he was 18. The Dominican product was toiling along under the radar as a ho-hum minor league reliever, although last year the Nationals grabbed Ramirez as a Rule 5 pick. However, Ramirez required arm surgery, and at the end of 2011, was returned to the Mets. Well, something must have happened to Ramirez while recouperating, for he started this year at Binghamton going 0-1, 1.38 with a save over 13 innings, with a 1.07 WHIP (16 strikeous, seven each of walks and hits) and was then promoted to Buffalo where he did even better over 14.2 innings, going 3-0, 0.00, having allowed just five hits and a walk while striking out 19. He could be interesting in an NL only format, especially if the Mets continue to be competitive.
The Dodgers are bringing young hitters up and down at an alarming rate and their newest toy is outfielder Alex Castellanos. Castellanos was originally drafted by the Cards in 2008, but swapped to the Bums last year in exchange for Rafael Furcal. Having split time between teams last year, the 25-year old hit .320-23-85, with 35 doubles, eight triples, and 14 swipes at Double-A. Promoted to Albuquerque, Castellanos was hitting .375-5-14 this month, ten doubles and four triples when summoned. With Juan Rivera still in rehab, and Matt Kemp likely down another month, Castellanos could indeed see some playing time. He was off to a hot start hitting .500-0-2 with a triple over his first three games. Of all the players, however, the Dodgers have promoted, I like Castellanos and Scott Van Slyke, whom I see taking over full time at first base before the season is over, best. Worth some FAAB in an NL only format right now.
The Braves have stopped the Tyler Pastornicky experiment at short, and will now begin the Andrelton Simmons experiment at short. A 22-year old from Curacao, Simmons hit a solid .311-1-52 last year at Lynchburg last year, with 69 runs and 26 steals to go with 35 doubles. Simmons does wield a good contact bat, having 43 walks to 29 strikeouts last year, although he was caught 18 times trying to steal last year: something that he will need to work on. This year at Gwinnett, Simmons was hitting .292-3-21, and even an imporved ten steals to a pair of caught, and a very good .372 OBP with 20 each of walks and strikeouts. Truth is, I like his potential better than I did Pastornicky's. If Simmons can hold his own on defense, he could be all right.
This seems to be a week for relief arms, so another worth scouring is the Phils Michael Schwimer, also from the Draft of 2008 out of the University of Virginia. As a minor leaguer, Schwimer was a fine 22-11, 2.60 over 252.2 innings, with 55 saves. Schwimer allowed just 202 hits, and managed 332 strikeouts to just 84 walks (1.13 WHIP), all fine numbers. Middle relievers are actually very helpful in most formats, especially as the season progresses and we seek to keep good numbers stable, while earning strikeouts, an occasional win, and best of all, these guys are usually available and interchangable. Meaning Schwimer is as safe a gamble as you can get.
So might be Sam Freeman, a left-hander the Cards promoted a few days ago. Like Schimer (and Ramirez), Freeman has especially been lights out this year, also climbing two levels, starting with Springfield, where he was 1-3, 1.56, over 17.1 innings, allowing 12 hits, and four walks while striking out 12. Freeman saved a game, and then made six appearances at Memphis (0-2, 4.50) before being called up to new Busch, but among the arms discussed this time, he is most likely back to the minors.
Looking at a couple of veterans guys who are likely hanging out on your reserve list--and note really these guys are really only of value in a very deep mixed format, or an NL or AL only format--Vicente Padilla, now on the Red Sox has been hot, having finished April at 1-0, 8.00 over six appearances and nine innings, but improving to 0-0, 2.92 with a save in May. Over 12.1 May innings, Padilla whiffed ten, allowed 12 hits, and walked three (1.29 WHIP). On a team that is still waiting to really get hot, the veteran Padilla is not a bad gamble at all.
Oakland lefty Jerry Blevins had also been dominant, having gone six straight appearances without allowing a run, and posted a 1.98 ERA in March, and a 1.93 equivalent in May, giving him 0-0, 1.85 numbers (he has appeared in June) over 24.1 innings, with 23 strikeouts, allowing ten walks and 16 hits (1.06 WHIP). This is the guy of all the relief arms I would target first.
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Last Updated on Monday, 04 June 2012 09:30 |
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Written by Lawr Michaels
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Monday, 28 May 2012 00:00 |
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Welcome back to another Memorial Day: that landmark we generally regard as the first milepost of the Fantasy Season. As usual, I hope that you enjoy the holiday and time with family and loved ones. For, that is as good as it gets for us, I believe.
Of course the ballpark is not a bad place, either, and this week begins kind of funny, especially compared to last week when we started out noting that veterans Adam Lind and Orlando Hudson were sent down. Hudson has since resurfaced on the White Sox so that along with Omar Vizquel they can play together in maybe the oldest DP combination with the most Gold Gloves. Exepct as my mate Perry Van Hook noted, Hudson is on the Blue Jays this year, but we deal in trifles, right?
But, as we finish up May, two faces from the past loom with the return of Manny Ramirez (who is poised to join his new Oakland team this week) and Vladimir Guerrero who is further off, but hopefully the Toronto antidote to the ineffective Lind.
Well, certainly in a deeper format either of these vets is worth a minimal gamble, although while Andy Pettitte has done okay since his return, Johnny Damon has not fared so well and I would not expect either Vladdy or Manny to do that much better. Although ultimately I imagine they can all hit .240 or above, and with a handful of home runs, don't go overboard spending on them as FAAB picks. For a few bucks, they are a fine investment, but beyond that, force someone else to spend the bucks and take the risk.
Still, there were some interesting players worth tracking this past sequence, starting at Detroit, where 27-year old Quintin Berry--no spring chicken himself--made his debut as a major leaguer this week. Signed as a free agent over the off season, Berry was drafted first by the Braves in 2003, but went to San Diego State instead, and was then drafted by the Phillies in 2006, selected off waivers by the Padres in 2010, but then nabbed by the Mets as a Rule 5 pick later that year. A month later Berry was released and signed by the Reds, who let go last fall, leading to Comerica.
As a minor leaguer, Berry has hit .267-20-213, with 261 swipes over 692 games. Berry does not have a lot of pop with a .338 minor league slugging percentage, but, he does have a pretty good .358 on-base number, and replacing Austin Jackson will be his task. And, while I worry about the likes of Ramirez and Guerrero disappointing with their return, Berry is the kind of guy to be a pleasant surprise, like the Giants Brett Pill last year, or Mike Aviles when he joined the Royals as a late bloomer several years back.
The Angerls have been nailed by almost as many outfield issues as the Red Sox, with an injury to Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter needing to be away for family issues, and the release of Bobby Abreu (since he is presently flourishing across town with the Dodgers, think that is being rethought?). Of course the Angels had some better--and healthier--minor league options like Mike Trout, and maybe even with newly promoted Kole Calhoun.
An eighth round selection of the Halos in 2010, out of Arizona State University, Calhoun has shot forth through the Angels systems conquering Rookie ball in 2010 (.292-7-42), High-A in 2011 (.324-22-99), climbing to Triple-A this year (.296-5-31). Calhoun has some of those numbers I love, like 128 walks to 176 strikeouts, and a .928 minor league OPS over 232 games. Calhoun is hitting .273 with a swipe over his first week, with a pair of walks to three whiffs, and those are pretty good numbers for a youngster, and sadly pose a lot more promise than Wells, or even Peter Bourjos. If Calhoun can continue to hit and get on base while the other Angels are away, he might just stick. Better, his resume does point to success. The big problem for him will be the amount of money the Angels have committed to their overpriced stars, and the obligation to play those same guys.
Speaking of Boston, and their outfield woes, the team has now promoted Taiwanese import Che-Hsuan Lin, a 23-year old with a half dozen minor league systems under his belt. Over that span Lin has a modest line of .257-22-202, though Lin has scored 348 runs. Like Calhoun, Lin boasts good on-base totals of .352, with 281 walks to 334 strikeouts, though his OPS is just .703 in contrast to Calhoun. Since Boston does have that Jacoby Ellsbury guy, along with Cody Ross and Carl Crawford all rehabbing, Lin's best bet is as a #4 outfielder somewhere. With Ryan Kalish also on that injured list Lin's future is probably with another team or back to Pawtucket.
We were at a Memorial Day BBQ last night with a bunch of friends and I felt bad talking about the Pittsburgh with my pal Richard Kweller, a Pittsburgh native, and now long suffering disillusioned Buccos follower. I suspect Richard would be more of a fan still, had the shown glimpses of a future. Well, catcher Michael McKenry sadly kind of modifies the Pittsburgh "plan," whatever that is. A 27-year old drafted out of Middle Tennessee State University, the backstop was selected by the Rockies in 2006, then traded to the Reds in March of 2011, and then to the Pirates two months later. McKenry has a .265-69-299 minor league record with again a pretty good .357 OBP (243 walks to 404 whiffs). However, over 83 major league games over three seasons, McKenry has hit only .209-5-15. However, this year, over just 58 at-bats this year, McKenry has banged three homers, good for a .412 slugging average which is not bad considering his .196 batting average. McKenry also has seven walks to 16 strikeouts and all of that suggests, believe it or not, that his batting average should take a little bit of a spike (maybe up around .240) if he gets regular play. In an NL format, McKenry might not be a bad gamble as a #2 catcher.
Back to the Angels, I was in attendance when Ernesto Frieri earned his first major league save last Wednesday in Oakland. I have been a big Frieri fan since I drafted him for my Strat-O-Matic team over a year ago. With lights out strikeout (160 over 119.2 innings) totals, Frieri is 3-3, 2.11 over those frames as a reliever, with a 1.19 ratio (78 hits, 64 walks) and to me was a natural for the closing gig somewhere. In fact, I drafted him as a reserve on my LABR team, and also for my NFBC draft-and-keep squad. If you can nab him, do so. He will wind up the closer over Scott Downs over the long haul.
Chicago brought back pitcher Jose Quintana, who like Frieri is a native of Colombia. Quintana had a brief visit to the Show a few weeks back when he was called up to help out following a rainout and then day/night doubleheader. Quintana put in 5.2 shutout relief innings, but was then quickly demoted back to Double-A Birmingham. Quintana has actually had very good minor league totals at 19-11, 2.76 over 50 starts and 300.1 innings. He has 334 strikeouts over that span with 221 hits and 129 walks allowed (1.17 WHIP). Quintana pitched pretty well over his first major league start, going six innings and allowing a couple of runs for his first major league victory. The 23-year old could be a pretty good play in an AL only format.
I am not sure why I have been a fan of Australian-born hurler Travis Blackley, who was originally signed by the Mariners back in 2000 as an amateur free agent. Blakely had pretty good success in the minors as mostly a starter (69-58, 3.98) with 944 whiffs over 1100 innings. I saw Blackley toss for the Giants earlier this year, and when they waived the 29-year old southpaw, the cross-bay Rays snatched him up. Blackley gets a spot start today, and against a left-hand heavy Twins team, he is not a bad play today. In a week, ideally Brandon McCarthy returns to claim his rotation spot, so Blackley's time as a starter might be limited, but for today I like him. And, should he pitch well, well, the future is in his hands.
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Last Updated on Monday, 28 May 2012 13:04 |
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Written by Lawr Michaels
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Monday, 21 May 2012 00:00 |
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What kind of a twisted mixed up universe is it when both Kevin Millwood and the apparently resurrected Andy Pettitte toss shutouts (ok, not complete game for Pettitte, but pretty good none-the-less) and where Orlando Hudson and Adam Lind are designated for assignment?
Well, the answer might be out there among this week's potential free agent gems, starting with the St. Louis first baseman of the future, Matt Adams. The 23-year old was also a 23rd round pick of the Cards during the 2009 June Draft. An unlikely looking sparkplug of a hitter, the stats suggest Adams is 6'3", 230 pounds, but when I saw him at the fall league last November, he looked both shorter and heavier. However, the dude can seriously rake.
Over 336 minor league games, Adams is hitting .318-73-268, with 91 doubles, and a solid enough .366 OBP (102 walks to 236 whiffs) and this year at Triple-A Memphis, was raking to the tune of .340-9-27 with ten doubles and a .978 OPS. Adams was summoned to play the Show to spell the ailing cards with Lance Berkman, Jon Jay, and Allen Craig all down, and he should get a chance to expound upon the pair of hits he had already collected at press time. You want to pick him up in a lean NL format, and consider him in mixed and ultra setups as well.
I was high on former Angel Alexi Amarista last year when his former team brought the now 23-year old Venezuelian up, but Amarista struggled with a .154-0-5 over 23 games. I liked Amarista based upon the .312-21-245 numbers, with 117 doubles, 35 tripes, and 120 swipes, although based upon the infielder's struggles last year, I did not pay that much attention when Alexi was swapped for fine reliever Ernesto Frieri. With the release of Hudson, Amarista is getting a shot and again, in a deep NL format, he is worth some attention for his reasonable on-base (163 walks to 234 strikeouts) and speed skills.
Minnesota is having a pretty dismal time of it this year, but maybe there are a few silver linings for the future out there, starting with shortstop Brian Dozier. A 25-year old, plucked in the 8th round of the 2009 draft, Dozier also have a pretty nice minor league resume, with .305-15-141 totals over 345 games. Dozier does not have a lot of pop (.416 SLG) but does have moderate speed with 45 swipes, and very good on-base numbers with a .379 OBP (151 walks to 168 strikeouts). Dozier has come out of the blocks hitting .286-2-7 over his first 13 games and as long as he is making contact like that, he will play and that makes him a nice gamble if you are thin up the middle.
San Francisco, hurting as much as anyone else in the infield with both Freddy Sanchez and Pablo Sandoval wounded, and their recent attempt at plugging that void with Conor Gillaspie failed (.150-0-2) so the Giants sent Gillaspie back to Fresno and called up former first rounder from 2007, Charlie Culberson. At 23, Culberson does not boast as solid a resume as his newbie mates above, having hit .263-37-130 in the minors, and though he was hitting .284-5-24 at Triple-A Fresno this year, that was in the Pacific Coast League: a hitter's haven. Neither has Culberson played much third since 2009, when he was the starter at the hot corner in Augusta. But, my biggest concern is the 461 strikeouts to 132 walks which suggest Culberson is not ready for big league pitching.
Another National League injury has felled the Reds Scott Rolen, and for now it appears that Todd Frazier will get first shot at that slot. Drafted in the 37th round by the Rockies in 2004, Frazier opted for playing at Rutgers first, and was then selected as a first rounder by the Reds in 2007. Over six seasons in the Reds system, Frazier was .280-75-300, including 136 doubles, with 205 walks to 437 strikeouts, good for a .353 OBP. Last year, over 41 games Frazier showed even better pop, going .232-6-15, and this year he has upped the ante, with .275-3-6 totals over 20 games, and an improved OBP in the majors to .327 over the .289 last year. I like Frazier on a team that can indeed score runs.
With Nolan Reimold hurting, Baltimore brought forth their second round selection from 2008, Xavier Avery. At just 22, Avery has five minor league seasons under his belt with .266-18-151 totals, although the 260 runs and 125 swipes he accumulated suggests more in the way of table setting than pop. Unfortunately Avery also has just a .328 OBP as a minor leaguer, with 155 walks to 477 strikeouts. However, prior to his call-up this year, Avery did improve that number significantly, with 20 walks to 29 whiffs, good for a .378 on-base total to go along with .273-5-16 totals. This is a dramatic improvement, and makes Avery worth watching as well, though his shot at garnering too many at-bats this year in the majors is somewhat slim at this point. Still, watch and see if the improved minor league numbers hold, for if they do, the outfielder might have made a major jump.
Looking at some arms, the Phillies brought forth their first round pick in 2007 Joe Savery. Actually, Savery was first picked by the Dodgers in the 15th round of the 2004 draft, but chose to spend some collegiate time at Rice instead. Savery actually has a so-so minor league line, with 33-31, 4.06 totals over 497 innings. With 536 hits allowed along with 208 walks to just 354 strikeouts, suggest the lefty is hittable. Of interest though, Savery can keep the ball down as his 37 dingers allowed suggests. Still, for now the southpaw will be working out of the pen, and thus far has been ok (0-0, 3.60 over 10 innings) but, Savery could earn a spot start, and with success at that, obviously things change.
Tampa plugged Alex Cobb into the slot opened when Jeff Niemann was injured, and the fourth rounder from 2006 responded well with his first start, earning a win over Atlanta Saturday, hurling seven fine innings with six whiffs. Last year Cobb was 3-2, 3.42 over nine starts and 52.2 innings (1.329 WHIP). In the minors, Cobb was 35-28, 3.07 over 107 starts, with a solid 1.21 ratio (582.2 innings, 541 hits, 169 walks, and 516 hits). On a strong team, Cobb is as safe a bet as you might find for a young pitcher, although Matt Moore owners must note that there is a difference between that killer minor league success, and translating the numbers to the show. In fact, all the guys this week need to remember that.
By the way, in finishing, the Giants signed Brad Penny to a deal over the weekend, after a fleeting and failed stint in Japan (0-1. 10.80 over one start and 3.1 innings). Though the 34-year olds 2011 numbers with the Tigers were less than stellar (11-11, 5.30 over 181.2 innings), Penny did have good success with the Giants to finish off 2009 (4-1, 2.95 over six starts and 41.2 innings). Keep an eye out: at least he is not a rookie!
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Last Updated on Thursday, 24 May 2012 08:56 |
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Written by Lawr Michaels
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Monday, 14 May 2012 00:00 |
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Now we are six weeks into the season, and it is certainly zooming past, just as certainly as it seems a hot summer looms, at least here in the East San Francisco Bay Area.
And, there were so many interesting names that popped by over the last cycle I could not hit them all (maybe next week) and stay sane. Since last week we focused a lot on injured third sackers, this week a quartet of arms have made their presence know, so let's start with them.
The biggest name on this week's review has to be Andy Pettitte, back with the Yankees. Andy has indeed had a great career, but "un-retirements" such as this don't work out (name one that has?). Pettitte started for the Pinstripes on Sunday, tossing 6.1 innings, allowing seven hits, four walks, and four runs. Since Andy was not exactly overpowering before his retirement, I feel pretty strong that this kind of line is what can be expected from the lefty. The Yanks might be able to throw him out there and score five runs enough of the time to squeeze a win (I think they are better off with David Phelps stretched out in the rotation) but these numbers will not help your roto team.
San Diego is one of a handful of teams (also Kansas City, Seattle, Houston, among others) that are really fun to watch rebuild, and one of the things the Padres have going is pitching. With Joe Wieland in the rotation, and Robbie Erlin in waiting, along with Tim Stauffer, Edinson Volquez, and Cory Luebke (who unfortunately is broken) and another fine looking young arm in Anthony Bass. An eighth round pick in 2005, from Wayne State University, Bass put together 29-17, 3.01 minor league numbers over 68 starts and 370.2 innings. He has followed up on two terrific late season starts (2-0, 1.68) and picked it right up this year, and though he is 1-4, Bass has an ERA of 3.23, a WHIP of 1.20, and is among the league leaders with 38 strikeouts. If Bass has not been snatched up already in your league, you better grab him this weekend. And, think about him as a serious potential keeper.
Colorado advanced top prospect Alex White after demoting the once promising, now struggling Jhoulys Chacin. A first round pick of the Tribe in 2009, White was swapped to the Rockies last year as part of the Ubaldo Jimenez deal. Before the swap White made three pretty good starts at the Jake (1-0, 3.60), then seven at Chase with less than stellar results (2-4, 8.42). At Colorado Springs he was 1-3, 2.92 over five starts and 24.2 innings. White's first assignment with Colorado was good for 6.1 innings, and a pair of runs, along with a loss, but White is worthy of a gamble in an NL only format. In a mixed league, if White is not on a reserve list similarly, he is worth a grab and a stash at worst.
Scott Diamond, of the Twins, is one of those rare diamonds who was never drafted, and signed as an amateur by the Braves in 2005. He as a pretty good 36-35, 3.70 over 600 innings, though Diamond is not overpowering (470 whiffs) and carries a 1.40 minor league WHIP (653 hits, 189 walks). Last year in the Twinkies rotation, Diamond was an uninspired 1-5, 5.07. And, although Diamond was 4-1, 2.60 over six starts, and then turned in a fine seven innings earlier in the week for a win (seven innings, four hits, six whiffs, no runs) I am not completely sold that Diamond is the answer to the Minnesota woes, although in fairness, he turned in a solid second start on Sunday, tossing seven more shutout innings. Only in a deep AL format should you take a shot at this however, those first two starts are hard to argue with.
Note also the former St. Louis selection (#11 in 2006) P.J. Walters was brought forth to try and spell the Twinkies. Walters also had a pretty good first start earlier in the week, and Walters is coming off pretty good Triple-A numbers (3-1, 2.70 at Rochester) but as with Diamond I have a hard time seeing what corner he has turned to suddenly become a pitcher who can consistantly dominate at the major league level.
I have had this notion for as long as Dana Eveland that he would be better than his career 19-24, 5.50 record says. I cannot say why save like so many pitchers, he has great stuff, and when it is on, he cannot be hit. "When" is the key word, for control just flees guys like him, inexplicably. Still, Eveland is only 28-years old, believe it or not, and Baltimore brought him up no decision, walked six, three runs, and will get another shot. With 54-36, 3.49 minor league numbers, Eveland is too good for the minors, and, well, I can always hope, right? Of course, be warned, in fantasy, that is the kiss of death, so do as I say, not as I do.
OK, closer patrol. First, Dale Thayer, the flavor of the week in San Diego is a 31-year old feel good story. Three-of-three in conversions, well, as with just about everyone on this list, you do need to ride the hot hand. However, in Oakland, Brian Fuentes is now the closer in favor of Grant Balfour. Bad choice. Oh, he might convert a few games, but Fuentes will blow up a lot more than he will help, and by the All Star Break will have worn out that welcome if not sooner.
While we are on feel good stories, another is the irrepressibly named Irving Falu, a 28-year old Puerto Rican import who just as wonderfully attended Indian Hills Community College, and then logged 949 minor league games with .276-18-318 totals with 186 swipes. Falu probably does not have a future as a starter in the Royals future star stoked lineup, but, he fits in perfectly as a utility player in that scheme, and you have to root for the guy. However, his potential contributions right now are pretty lean, especially in a mixed format.
The Mets Jordany Valdespin burst onto the New York scene with a bang, clubbing a pinch-hit three-run bomb for his first major league hit and, not much else since. Still the 24-year old Dominican product has a decent minor league resume of .283-33-174 with 86 steals, but his 91 walks to 256 strikeouts is worrisome. Great story, but Valdespin is probably no more than a utility player, if he sticks. Probably not worth much interest, if that, however, in the fantasy world.
On the other hand the Dodgers Scott Van Slyke--son of former star Andy--is a fine prospect, a 14th round pick of the Bums in 2005. A big--as in 6'5", 250 pounds--outfielder/first baseman, Van Slyke had a terrific 2011 at AA Chattanooga .248-20-92, last year, with a pretty good 65 walks to 100 whiffs, a marked improvement in strike zone judgement for him. He was hitting .336-1-8 at Albuquerque when called up this week, although with just one walk to 16 strikeouts, again showing the young slugger needs some time to adjust. I like Van Slyke a lot, and think he could be a first base answer to James Loney with some actual pop.
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Last Updated on Wednesday, 16 May 2012 08:49 |
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Written by Lawr Michaels
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Monday, 07 May 2012 00:00 |
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Welcome back for another hot week of the Hotpage, and let's jump out of the box with Patrick Corbin, a southpaw drafted by the Angels in 2009, then traded with Joe Saunders to the Diamondbacks in 2010. We start with Corbin, because this has to be a time of the year where you guys might be scrounging for starting pitching, and the logical turn might be to Corbin.
Over the minors, the now 22-year old was 28-14, 3.83 over 70 starts, with 349 whiffs to 96 walks (1.25 WHIP), though I am a tad wary of picking him up at this point. Of Corbin's pair of big league starts one went pretty well (a win over 5.2 innings) and one not so (a loss over 3.1) but there is nothing that suggests any potential dominance as a starter (compare, say, to Drew Hutchison who is more of a strikeout pitcher) and I am guessing if Corbin sticks as a starter, he will get knocked around some as he adjusts to the majors.
Before we migrate to everyone's probably sore spot--third base--let's look at a couple of potential closers in waiting, starting with Oakland's Jordan Norberto. Of course we know that Grant Balfour is still the man in Oakland, but clearly Brian Fuentes is not, and Joey Devine is not either for sure. And, well, Fautino De Los Santos has been relegated to the bowels of Sacramento (I grew up there: it is no picnic) while Norbeto picked up the save for Jarrod Parker's first win. And, Balfour has struggled his last appearances (that is how Norbeto got his conversion) allowing six runs while picking up three saves. Anyway, in this year of goofy closing situations anything seems to go.
And, well, if you doubt the previous sentence, think of Norberto's fellow countryman, Rafael Dolis. The 23-year old, who was 8-5 with 17 saves last year at Iowa, now has a pair of saves and a win over the past week. Dolis might have also displaced yet another Dominican, Carlos Marmol who was never known for his control with 313 walks allowed over his 469 major league innings, although he has only allowed 297 hits, while striking out an incredible 608. Those numbers scream the phrase "effectively wild." Well, despite 97 saves the last couple of years, with just two saves, a 5.81 ERA, and two blown conversions, the door has opened for Dolis.
So, be open to picking up extra conversions via arms like these. I do think you should expect the incumbent closers--in this case Balfour and Marmol--to earn the lion's share of saves between now and the end of the year, but, also expect managers to go with the hot hand (think Yankees and White Sox and Angels, too). It's a crazy year, after all.
Continuing on the North Side, but before get to Tony Campana and the Chicago outfield, I must admit I was wrong about Bryan LaHair. I dismissed the 29-year old as a Quad-A player, when really he has a resume a lot like Kevin Millar, whom I recognized had real potential I do see LaHair potentially in the outfield as Anthony Rizzo advances, along with maybe Brett Jackson, and Campana.
I like the 13th round pick of the 2008 draft, who has broken out with his Cub mates hitting .306 with seven each of runs and steals over 36 at-bats, after a .259-1-6 stint with 24 swipes last year. Kind of like the Phils are playing Juan Pierre, and the Twins should play Ben Revere, guys like Campana are there to score runs. That he can do, and in an NL situation, I would certainly grab him as a fifth outfielder. In fact I would consider this even in a mixed format.
If you are looking for a little help behind the dish in the National League, take a peek at 28-year old Brett Hayes. Injuries have pretty much forced the hand of the Marlins and Hayes--and though it does not matter for fantasy purposes, is pretty good defensively--is hitting .300 over his 30 at-bats which is nearly double starter John Buck. Hayes is 28, which is just around the age most big league catchers come into their own, and I am thinking he could see increased playing time as he continues to hit. Hayes is not bad as a #2 catcher in an NL format. He might even graduate to #1 if he keeps it up.
OK, bad week at the hot corner. And, if you are a Kevin Youkilis owner, then Will Middlebrooks, Boston's fifth round pick in 2007 might be your next big thing. With .276-52-269 minor league numbers, including .333-9-27 this year before being called to Fenway, Middlebrooks is drawing some attention. I would watch the 128 walks to 449 whiffs, however, and keep an eye on how well Middlebrooks gets on base.
I do love the Brewers Taylor Green, whom I thought was going to make the club out of spring with his respectable September of 2011 (.270-0-1 over 37 at-bats) and especially following his solid .336-22-88 season at Nashville, with 36 doubles and an .828 OPS. Green had played second and third last year for the Brewers, and debuted for Milwaukee at first base Sunday, hitting a double his first at-bat of the season off Matt Cain. I like him better as a gamble than Middlebrooks.
San Francisco is giving the third base gig of injured Pablo Sandoval to Conor Gillaspie. The team's first round pick in 2008, Gillaspie has had a few stabs at the majors (.229-1-3 over 29 September coffee sips), but he also brings .296-23-223 numbers over 429 games, including 91 doubles, and 178 walks to 243 strikeouts, good for a solid .364 OBP. I think Gillaspie will hang with the club till at least the Panda returns, and that his numbers will improve as he gets more comfortable. But, as with his mates so far above at the hot corner, none of these players is worth a mixed gamble yet.
Finally, looking at the Rays, it is true that Joe Maddon likes to get all his guys in the game as much as possible, but I would be surprised if Jeff Keppinger does not get the lion's share of playing time while Evan Longoria rehabs. Keppinger does have 103 appearances at third in the majors, and is hitting a solid enough .310-2-6 over 58 at-bats. Plus, though Keppinger does not walk a lot (157 times as a big leaguer) he is even harder to strike out (143 times). I would got with Keppinger over all the above were he available. On such a good team, he can relax and do his thing giving Maddon a tough problem of where to play him when Longo returns.
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Last Updated on Monday, 07 May 2012 09:39 |
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Written by Lawr Michaels
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Monday, 30 April 2012 00:00 |
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How much more exciting could finishing up the first month of play be that with the appearance of two of the most followed prospects over the last two years, with the return of Mike Trout, and debut of Bryce Harper?
For Trout, who still holds his rookie status thanks to 135 at-bats last year (five shy of the limit) good for .220-5-16 numbers, meaning Trout spent 91 games (.36-11-38) at Double-A Arkansas, and just missed making the team out of spring this year. All Trout did at Salt Lake City was .406-1-13 with a 1.091 OPS (.467 OBP; .623 SLG) and since the Angels released Bobby Abreu to the tune of $9 million this year, you can expect Trout to play pretty much every day. He has, as you can see, nothing left to prove in the minors.
As for Harper, there is simply nothing left to beyond his double and RBI Saturday during his first game, and his web gem catch Sunday simply show just how special this kid can be. .290-18-61 totals with 27 swipes over just 129 games and all we can do is consider ourselves lucky to have witnessed a rookie crop with Trout, Harper, and the Athletics' Yoenis Cespedes. Should any of this troika be available for any odd reason in your free agent pool, run, do not walk to your transactions page and pick them up.
Moving to some corner spots, earlier in the week the Athletics picked up Luke Hughes to try and pick up some pop at third (I was actually at his first Oakland game, where Hughes comitted a pair of errors and drove the ball twice to the deepest part of the park only to fly out, making for a tough evening), and now have picked up Brandon Inge, just let go by the Tigers. I would actually expect Inge to log the bulk of time at the hot corner, though and though Hughes does have a few minor league games at first, it is probably a stretch that he would play there. Inge has .234-140-589 major league totals, while Hughes has .220-8-34 numbers. Despite essentially weak numbers, both are upgrades to what Oakland already has, at least at third.
Also in Oakland, don't look now, but first sacker Kila Ka'aihue is quietly hitting .310-0-2 over 14 games, and that might only be good for a .763 OPS, but it is a start, and maybe a sign that the big (6'4", 235 pounds) Hawaiian--who boasts a solid .390 minor league OBP--has finally gotten the hang of big league pitching. Keep an eye on him, for if Ka'aihue gets into a groove, the power will indeed follow.
Across the bay, since Aubrey Huff has forgotten that he performs well in even years, and has since fled to the DL as he tries to reorder his life. And, that measn for the most part Brandon Belt will be the everyday first baseman, and that is a good thing. It is one thing Belt needs to know to instill his confidence and sense of belonging. Just over the weekend, Belt supplied the go-ahead run on Saturday, and while Brett Pill might get some looks at first, and Buster Posey as well, this should afford Belt a chance to settle in without the pressure of competition. Keep an eye on his play for the next couple of weeks. (In fact, knowing Huff is in his contract year, with some left-handed pop, he becomes potential trade bait to a contender looking for said comodity. That is provided the Giants are not contending.)
And, though we have one more position player to check out, let's stay in San Francisco long enough to report out on Erick Hacker, who made his first start for the Giants on Friday. Hacker is a 29-year old throw back looking guy, stading in at 6'1", 230 pounds, with a big--and traditional looking--wind up replete with a big leg kick. But, he does not throw very hard, topping out around 89 MPH with his fastball. I was surprised that over almost six innings Friday, that the righty whiffed seven Padres, but at the big league level he does not look like much to gamble on. I am still much higher on another Eric: that being Eric Surkamp.
San Diegoe advanced 24-year Blake Tekotte, their third round selection of the 2008 draft. The outfielder has a pretty good resume of .274-58-222 over 433 games, and after a solid .285-19-67 at Double-A San Antonio, Tekotte was brought up for a month (.176-0-1 over 19 games). He began this season at AAA Tucson, going .278-2-6 before the call-up, and though it is not a certainty the flychaser will stay with the team, for the rest of the year, he is one of many interesting young pieces to a rebuilding movement.
Staying in the west, Los Angeles recalled pitcher Nathan Eovaldi, a good looking 22-year old who made a splash last season with a 1-2, 3.63 mark over six starts and 34.2 innings. Eovaldi did cull 23 strikeouts, but also 20 walks (1.40 WHIP) so despite a good spring (1.72 ERA over 15.2 innings) the youngster went back to Chatanooga to start the season. There he has posted fine 0-0, 2.08 numbers over four starts and 14 innings (14 whiffs and three walks) before his call-up. Expect Eovaldi to start out fleshing the pen, but if he holds his own, expect the 11th round pick in 2008 to be in the rotation by next season, and maybe even sooner.
Speaking of recalls, Houston did just that with lefty Jordan Lyles, the Astros first round pick, once again from the 2008 June draft. At 20, last year Lyles was pushed to Minute Maid, probably prematurely, as his 2-8, 5.36 totals over 15 starts and 94 innings (1.41 WHIP with 67 whiffs) indicates. The lefty was 3-3, 3.61 over 10 starts while not in the majors at Triple-A Oklahoma City, and this season has been 4-0, 3.41 over four starts, allowing just 24 hits, four walks, and 24 strikeouts over 24 innings, with just one dinger allowed. He pitched pretty well against the Reds Sunday, going six innings, allowing three runs on four hits, three walks and five strikeouts. The Astros might scratch for wins this year, and it could even be a loss leader for Lyles, but this too is an arm worth watching.
Finally, don't look now but Baltimore's Pedro Strop has earned two saves and a win since last Tuesday. Since Jim Johnson is down, Strop is a pretty good sleeper--at least for this week--to add to your team and maybe pick up a save or two. The righty is a 26-year old, who notched 2-1, 2.05 totals last year over 22 Baltimore innings, but before that was less successful out of the Texas pen (0-1, 7.24 over 33 games). Ride the hot hand, as they say.
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Last Updated on Monday, 30 April 2012 08:29 |
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Written by Lawr Michaels
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Monday, 23 April 2012 00:00 |
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Into a third full week of play we go, with some teams making moves to replace the injured and underperforming, while other teams have under-the-radar players we should give a hard look at now.
Like Houston outfielder J.D. Martinez, a 20th-round selection of the Astros in 2009 out Nova Southwestern University in Florida, of all places (think he was the star of the league that school?). Over three minor league seasons Martinez assembled excellent .342-43-217 totals over 298 games, with 89 doubles and an excellent 110 walks to 196 strikeouts. Last year Martinez was promoted to the bigs and responded as the new left fielder with .274-6-35 totals over 208 at-bats. In the majors Martinez logged 13 walks to 48 strikes, good for a .319 OBP. This year Martinez is hot out of the blocks, hitting .330-3-14 over the first two weeks, but the real stat of note is the 11 walks to 13 strikeouts the outfielder has culled over 50 2012 at-bats. Martinez should be active on all rosters, and looks like a real future bright spot on the Astros path.
An American League counterpart to Martinez might be Oakland's right fielder Josh Reddick. A 17th round pick of the Red Sox in 2006, Reddick had .278-86-295 totals in the Boston system over 466 games and five years, debuting as an extra outfielder less than modest totals in 2009 (.169-2-4) and 2010 (.194-1-5), hitting a stride last year with .280-7-28 totals over 254 at-bats. In the 2011 off-season, Oakland then swapped for Reddick as part of the Andrew Bailey deal, and the Athletics installed him as their everyday right fielder. Reddick has responded with .283-2-3 numbers so far, playing a terrific right field (Strat-O-Matic players should note that Reddick has a terrific arm). Again, Reddick should be on your radar.
Continuing with the outfield, Arizona advanced their first round pick (and #17 overall) in 2009, A.J. Pollock. Pollock went .277-3-22 over 63 rookie games after being drafted, but in 2010 injured the growing plate on his throwing arm and missed the entire year. In 2011 returned to play at AA Mobile, hitting .307-8-73, with a terrific 41 doubles and 36 swipes, and the outfielder had a hot start to this season .340-0-5--following Chris Young's injury, the Dbacks promoted the 24-year old. Pollock's stay in the bigs will be probably be short-lived, with Young, Justin Upton, and Jason Kubel as the regulars, but Pollock will likely be a starter for the team in a couple of years.
One more outfielder who might raise an eyebrow, especially in an American League format, is now former Cub Marlon Byrd. A tenth round pick in 1999 by the Phillies, Byrd played in Philly (.271-13-79), then Washington (.245-7-44), followed by Texas (.295-40-212), and then the Cubs (.271-21-103) putting together .278-81-438 totals over 1069 games. Byrd was really a solid mid-range starter until a beaning last year reduce his playing time and numbers to .276-9-35 over 119 games. Boston needs outfield help with Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury and Ryan Kalish all presently injured, but Byrd is really one of many at this juncture. Still, in a deep AL format he could indeed be of some help, at least until the Boston regulars all return.
I have always been a fan of Nick Johnson (maybe because I spent a year in Sacramento at the same High School where Johnson graduated) who was selected out of C.K. McClatchy High in 1996 by the Yankees. Always loaded with a great eye, serious talent, and as brittle a body as the majors have known, Johnson has had mixed success. As a full timer in Washington over 2005-06, then in his late 20's, Johnson looked to be reaching stride with .289-15-74 and then .290-23-77 numbers that featured 190 walks to 124 strikeouts. Injured for all of 2007, Johnson struggled in 2008 with limited play (.220-5-20), but he returned to form in 2009 with the Nationals hitting .295-6-44 over 98 games before being swapped to the Marlins where he finished with .279-2-18 numbers. Johnson then signed with the Yankees to DH, but was injured after 24 games (.167-2-8) and then spent 55 games in the minors in 2011 (.201-6-13) and presuably his career was over. Well, the now 34-year old is now an Oriole, and though he has 23 at-bats to his credit this year, Johnson still is searching for his first hit. I still think Johnson could be a valuable bench player in the majors with 512 walks to 552 strikeouts, and an ability to get on base, but that is it. I will let him go elsewhere if you will.
Shifting to some arms, Drew Hutchison was a 15th round pick of the Blue Jays in 2009, and he has put together very nice totals of 18-9, 2.46 over 45 starts and 234.2 innings. Hutchison whiffed 246 over that span, with just 55 walks to 187 hits, and best of all a spectacularly few seven homers allowed. Hutchison was promoted and given his first start and though the lefty did earn his first win, he also allowed eight hits, five runs, and three walks to four whiffs over his first 5.1 innings. Still the 21-year old has numbers that could point to dominance, so Hutchison is worth a risk if you need a starter in a deep format, and at worst is worth tracking in a mixed league.
Baltimare signed Japanese import Wei-Yin Chen to a deal this off-season, and the 25-year old, who logged 36-30 numbers with Chunichi between 2008-11 struck out 500 over 631.1 innings, allowing 518 hits while walking 153 (1.08 walks) though 47 homers (compare that to Hutchison). Chen has two Orioles starts under his belt now, with a 1-0, 3.27 mark over 11 innings (13 hits, 10 whiffs, 3 walks and a homer) and the southpaw is certainly worth a gamble in most formats where owners are pitching starved. And, while Hutchison might have more talent, Chen has more experience at this juncture.
Marco Estrada was a sixth round pick of the Nationals in 2005, out of Cal-State Long Beach, although Estrada is a native of Sonora, Mexico. Plucked off waivers from Washington after marginal (0-1, 7.20) and minimal (20 innings) major league experience by the Brewers. Over seven starts last year, Estrada was 4-8, 4.08, with 88 strikeouts over 92 innings. Estrada looks pretty good so far this year as a member of the rotation, however, with 0-0, 2.45 numbers over 11 innings and now one start. With 16 strikeouts to just seven hits and three walks, the 28-year old certainly looks like he could be an NL sleeper.
Finally, I worked the Oakland game last Friday where Graham Godfrey and his mates walked nine Indians, and this week Godfrey was sent down and will be replaced with Jarrod Parker. Parker, acquired as part of the Trevor Cahill swap and the former first rounder by Arizona in 2007 looks like the real deal. At 29-19, 3.45 in the minors, Parker has 345 strikeouts over 366.1 innings, with 341 hits and 132 walks (1.29 WHIP). In the spring Parker looked great and he is 1-0, 2.18 over four starts and 20.2 innings at Triple-A Sacramento this year. Parker is more than worth a flier, especially in pitcher friendly Oakland.
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Last Updated on Monday, 23 April 2012 11:17 |
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