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June 4, 2012 (Week 9) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 04 June 2012 00:00

What better way to enter the third month of the season than with Johan Santana and his wonderful--and amazing--feat of not just tossing the Mets first no-no in history, but one during his fine comeback season. Stories like this make baseball and its lore, well, storied.

On the other hand it does look as if Jamie Moyer has completed his interesting and prolonged run, along with another name who is the new Willy Loman of journeymen players, it seems, in Bill Hall. Hall was back up with the Orioles for a day, then went back down as the team picked up Steve Pearce from the Yankees. Hard to believe the one time almost Red Sox (drafted, but never signed in 2004), Pirate, Twin, Yank, and now Bird is still just 29. And, after his .333-31-113 Brandon Wood-type season, Pearce was a hot item, but he never lived up to much of that promise any more than Wood has. Basically he fits in well as a complement to Mark Reynolds. Pearce is proof that every player drafted does indeed have a big year in them somewhere. He is also proof that the game is as hard on its players as it is on our expectations.

Before we look at a this week's retinue of major leaguers to consider, if you are playing ultra rules and can grab a minor leaguer (and while we are discussing the Orioles), take a look at Baltimore's #1 pick of last year, Dylan Bundy. Bundy did not sign in time to get any playing time in last year, so his debut was this season at Delmarva, where over his first 30 innings he whiffed 40, allowed five hits, a pair of walks and just a couple of unearned runs. Those are ridiculous totals--tantamount to Matt Moore's overwhemling totals of last year--and if you can grab Bundy and stash him for a couple of years, you will be justly rewarded.

Back to the Mets and their pitching for a paragraph, 24-year old Elvin Ramirez has been hurling in the minors since he was 18. The Dominican product was toiling along under the radar as a ho-hum minor league reliever, although last year the Nationals grabbed Ramirez as a Rule 5 pick. However, Ramirez required arm surgery, and at the end of 2011, was returned to the Mets. Well, something must have happened to Ramirez while recouperating, for he started this year at Binghamton going 0-1, 1.38 with a save over 13 innings, with a 1.07 WHIP (16 strikeous, seven each of walks and hits) and was then promoted to Buffalo where he did even better over 14.2 innings, going 3-0, 0.00, having allowed just five hits and a walk while striking out 19. He could be interesting in an NL only format, especially if the Mets continue to be competitive.

The Dodgers are bringing young hitters up and down at an alarming rate and their newest toy is outfielder Alex Castellanos. Castellanos was originally drafted by the Cards in 2008, but swapped to the Bums last year in exchange for Rafael Furcal. Having split time between teams last year, the 25-year old hit .320-23-85, with 35 doubles, eight triples, and 14 swipes at Double-A. Promoted to Albuquerque, Castellanos was hitting .375-5-14 this month, ten doubles and four triples when summoned. With Juan Rivera still in rehab, and Matt Kemp likely down another month, Castellanos could indeed see some playing time. He was off to a hot start hitting .500-0-2 with a triple over his first three games. Of all the players, however, the Dodgers have promoted, I like Castellanos and Scott Van Slyke, whom I see taking over full time at first base before the season is over, best. Worth some FAAB in an NL only format right now.

The Braves have stopped the Tyler Pastornicky experiment at short, and will now begin the Andrelton Simmons experiment at short. A 22-year old from Curacao, Simmons hit a solid .311-1-52 last year at Lynchburg last year, with 69 runs and 26 steals to go with 35 doubles. Simmons does wield a good contact bat, having 43 walks to 29 strikeouts last year, although he was caught 18 times trying to steal last year: something that he will need to work on. This year at Gwinnett, Simmons was hitting .292-3-21, and even an imporved ten steals to a pair of caught, and a very good .372 OBP with 20 each of walks and strikeouts. Truth is, I like his potential better than I did Pastornicky's. If Simmons can hold his own on defense, he could be all right.

This seems to be a week for relief arms, so another worth scouring is the Phils Michael Schwimer, also from the Draft of 2008 out of the University of Virginia. As a minor leaguer, Schwimer was a fine 22-11, 2.60 over 252.2 innings, with 55 saves. Schwimer allowed just 202 hits, and managed 332 strikeouts to just 84 walks (1.13 WHIP), all fine numbers. Middle relievers are actually very helpful in most formats, especially as the season progresses and we seek to keep good numbers stable, while earning strikeouts, an occasional win, and best of all, these guys are usually available and interchangable. Meaning Schwimer is as safe a gamble as you can get.

So might be Sam Freeman, a left-hander the Cards promoted a few days ago. Like Schimer (and Ramirez), Freeman has especially been lights out this year, also climbing two levels, starting with Springfield, where he was 1-3, 1.56, over 17.1 innings, allowing 12 hits, and four walks while striking out 12. Freeman saved a game, and then made six appearances at Memphis (0-2, 4.50) before being called up to new Busch, but among the arms discussed this time, he is most likely back to the minors.

Looking at a couple of veterans guys who are likely hanging out on your reserve list--and note really these guys are really only of value in a very deep mixed format, or an NL or AL only format--Vicente Padilla, now on the Red Sox has been hot, having finished April at 1-0, 8.00 over six appearances and nine innings, but improving to 0-0, 2.92 with a save in May. Over 12.1 May innings, Padilla whiffed ten, allowed 12 hits, and walked three (1.29 WHIP). On a team that is still waiting to really get hot, the veteran Padilla is not a bad gamble at all.

Oakland lefty Jerry Blevins had also been dominant, having gone six straight appearances without allowing a run, and posted a 1.98 ERA in March, and a 1.93 equivalent in May, giving him 0-0, 1.85 numbers (he has appeared in June) over 24.1 innings, with 23 strikeouts, allowing ten walks and 16 hits (1.06 WHIP). This is the guy of all the relief arms I would target first.

 

Last Updated on Monday, 04 June 2012 09:30
 
May 28, 2012 (Week 8) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 28 May 2012 00:00

Welcome back to another Memorial Day: that landmark we generally regard as the first milepost of the Fantasy Season. As usual, I hope that you enjoy the holiday and time with family and loved ones. For, that is as good as it gets for us, I believe.

Of course the ballpark is not a bad place, either, and this week begins kind of funny, especially compared to last week when we started out noting that veterans Adam Lind and Orlando Hudson were sent down. Hudson has since resurfaced on the White Sox so that along with Omar Vizquel they can play together in maybe the oldest DP combination with the most Gold Gloves. Exepct as my mate Perry Van Hook noted, Hudson is on the Blue Jays this year, but we deal in trifles, right?

But, as we finish up May, two faces from the past loom with the return of Manny Ramirez (who is poised to join his new Oakland team this week) and Vladimir Guerrero who is further off, but hopefully the Toronto antidote to the ineffective Lind.

Well, certainly in a deeper format either of these vets is worth a minimal gamble, although while Andy Pettitte has done okay since his return, Johnny Damon has not fared so well and I would not expect either Vladdy or Manny to do that much better. Although ultimately I imagine they can all hit .240 or above, and with a handful of home runs, don't go overboard spending on them as FAAB picks. For a few bucks, they are a fine investment, but beyond that, force someone else to spend the bucks and take the risk.

Still, there were some interesting players worth tracking this past sequence, starting at Detroit, where 27-year old Quintin Berry--no spring chicken himself--made his debut as a major leaguer this week. Signed as a free agent over the off season, Berry was drafted first by the Braves in 2003, but went to San Diego State instead, and was then drafted by the Phillies in 2006, selected off waivers by the Padres in 2010, but then nabbed by the Mets as a Rule 5 pick later that year. A month later Berry was released and signed by the Reds, who let go last fall, leading to Comerica.

As a minor leaguer, Berry has hit .267-20-213, with 261 swipes over 692 games. Berry does not have a lot of pop with a .338 minor league slugging percentage, but, he does have a pretty good .358 on-base number, and replacing Austin Jackson will be his task. And, while I worry about the likes of Ramirez and Guerrero disappointing with their return, Berry is the kind of guy to be a pleasant surprise, like the Giants Brett Pill last year, or Mike Aviles when he joined the Royals as a late bloomer several years back.

The Angerls have been nailed by almost as many outfield issues as the Red Sox, with an injury to Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter needing to be away for family issues, and the release of Bobby Abreu (since he is presently flourishing across town with the Dodgers, think that is being rethought?). Of course the Angels had some better--and healthier--minor league options like Mike Trout, and maybe even with newly promoted Kole Calhoun.

An eighth round selection of the Halos in 2010, out of Arizona State University, Calhoun has shot forth through the Angels systems conquering Rookie ball in 2010 (.292-7-42), High-A in 2011 (.324-22-99), climbing to Triple-A this year (.296-5-31). Calhoun has some of those numbers I love, like 128 walks to 176 strikeouts, and a .928 minor league OPS over 232 games. Calhoun is hitting .273 with a swipe over his first week, with a pair of walks to three whiffs, and those are pretty good numbers for a youngster, and sadly pose a lot more promise than Wells, or even Peter Bourjos. If Calhoun can continue to hit and get on base while the other Angels are away, he might just stick. Better, his resume does point to success. The big problem for him will be the amount of money the Angels have committed to their overpriced stars, and the obligation to play those same guys.

Speaking of Boston, and their outfield woes, the team has now promoted Taiwanese import Che-Hsuan Lin, a 23-year old with a half dozen minor league systems under his belt. Over that span Lin has a modest line of .257-22-202, though Lin has scored 348 runs. Like Calhoun, Lin boasts good on-base totals of .352, with 281 walks to 334 strikeouts, though his OPS is just .703 in contrast to Calhoun. Since Boston does have that Jacoby Ellsbury guy, along with Cody Ross and Carl Crawford all rehabbing, Lin's best bet is as a #4 outfielder somewhere. With Ryan Kalish also on that injured list Lin's future is probably with another team or back to Pawtucket.

We were at a Memorial Day BBQ last night with a bunch of friends and I felt bad talking about the Pittsburgh with my pal Richard Kweller, a Pittsburgh native, and now long suffering disillusioned Buccos follower. I suspect Richard would be more of a fan still, had the shown glimpses of a future. Well, catcher Michael McKenry sadly kind of modifies the Pittsburgh "plan," whatever that is. A 27-year old drafted out of Middle Tennessee State University, the backstop was selected by the Rockies in 2006, then traded to the Reds in March of 2011, and then to the Pirates two months later. McKenry has a .265-69-299 minor league record with again a pretty good .357 OBP (243 walks to 404 whiffs). However, over 83 major league games over three seasons, McKenry has hit only .209-5-15. However, this year, over just 58 at-bats this year, McKenry has banged three homers, good for a .412 slugging average which is not bad considering his .196 batting average. McKenry also has seven walks to 16 strikeouts and all of that suggests, believe it or not, that his batting average should take a little bit of a spike (maybe up around .240) if he gets regular play. In an NL format, McKenry might not be a bad gamble as a #2 catcher.

Back to the Angels, I was in attendance when Ernesto Frieri earned his first major league save last Wednesday in Oakland. I have been a big Frieri fan since I drafted him for my Strat-O-Matic team over a year ago. With lights out strikeout (160 over 119.2 innings) totals, Frieri is 3-3, 2.11 over those frames as a reliever, with a 1.19 ratio (78 hits, 64 walks) and to me was a natural for the closing gig somewhere. In fact, I drafted him as a reserve on my LABR team, and also for my NFBC draft-and-keep squad. If you can nab him, do so. He will wind up the closer over Scott Downs over the long haul.

Chicago brought back pitcher Jose Quintana, who like Frieri is a native of Colombia. Quintana had a brief visit to the Show a few weeks back when he was called up to help out following a rainout and then day/night doubleheader. Quintana put in 5.2 shutout relief innings, but was then quickly demoted back to Double-A Birmingham. Quintana has actually had very good minor league totals at 19-11, 2.76 over 50 starts and 300.1 innings. He has 334 strikeouts over that span with 221 hits and 129 walks allowed (1.17 WHIP). Quintana pitched pretty well over his first major league start, going six innings and allowing a couple of runs for his first major league victory. The 23-year old could be a pretty good play in an AL only format.

I am not sure why I have been a fan of Australian-born hurler Travis Blackley, who was originally signed by the Mariners back in 2000 as an amateur free agent. Blakely had pretty good success in the minors as mostly a starter (69-58, 3.98) with 944 whiffs over 1100 innings. I saw Blackley toss for the Giants earlier this year, and when they waived the 29-year old southpaw, the cross-bay Rays snatched him up. Blackley gets a spot start today, and against a left-hand heavy Twins team, he is not a bad play today. In a week, ideally Brandon McCarthy returns to claim his rotation spot, so Blackley's time as a starter might be limited, but for today I like him. And, should he pitch well, well, the future is in his hands.

 

Last Updated on Monday, 28 May 2012 13:04
 
May 21, 2012 (Week 7) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 21 May 2012 00:00

What kind of a twisted mixed up universe is it when both Kevin Millwood and the apparently resurrected Andy Pettitte toss shutouts (ok, not complete game for Pettitte, but pretty good none-the-less) and where Orlando Hudson and Adam Lind are designated for assignment?

Well, the answer might be out there among this week's potential free agent gems, starting with the St. Louis first baseman of the future, Matt Adams. The 23-year old was also a 23rd round pick of the Cards during the 2009 June Draft. An unlikely looking sparkplug of a hitter, the stats suggest Adams is 6'3", 230 pounds, but when I saw him at the fall league last November, he looked both shorter and heavier. However, the dude can seriously rake.

Over 336 minor league games, Adams is hitting .318-73-268, with 91 doubles, and a solid enough .366 OBP (102 walks to 236 whiffs) and this year at Triple-A Memphis, was raking to the tune of .340-9-27 with ten doubles and a .978 OPS. Adams was summoned to play the Show to spell the ailing cards with Lance Berkman, Jon Jay, and Allen Craig all down, and he should get a chance to expound upon the pair of hits he had already collected at press time. You want to pick him up in a lean NL format, and consider him in mixed and ultra setups as well.

I was high on former Angel Alexi Amarista last year when his former team brought the now 23-year old Venezuelian up, but Amarista struggled with a .154-0-5 over 23 games. I liked Amarista based upon the .312-21-245 numbers, with 117 doubles, 35 tripes, and 120 swipes, although based upon the infielder's struggles last year, I did not pay that much attention when Alexi was swapped for fine reliever Ernesto Frieri. With the release of Hudson, Amarista is getting a shot and again, in a deep NL format, he is worth some attention for his reasonable on-base (163 walks to 234 strikeouts) and speed skills.

Minnesota is having a pretty dismal time of it this year, but maybe there are a few silver linings for the future out there, starting with shortstop Brian Dozier. A 25-year old, plucked in the 8th round of the 2009 draft, Dozier also have a pretty nice minor league resume, with .305-15-141 totals over 345 games. Dozier does not have a lot of pop (.416 SLG) but does have moderate speed with 45 swipes, and very good on-base numbers with a .379 OBP (151 walks to 168 strikeouts). Dozier has come out of the blocks hitting .286-2-7 over his first 13 games and as long as he is making contact like that, he will play and that makes him a nice gamble if you are thin up the middle.

San Francisco, hurting as much as anyone else in the infield with both Freddy Sanchez and Pablo Sandoval wounded, and their recent attempt at plugging that void with Conor Gillaspie failed (.150-0-2) so the Giants sent Gillaspie back to Fresno and called up former first rounder from 2007, Charlie Culberson. At 23, Culberson does not boast as solid a resume as his newbie mates above, having hit .263-37-130 in the minors, and though he was hitting .284-5-24 at Triple-A Fresno this year, that was in the Pacific Coast League: a hitter's haven. Neither has Culberson played much third since 2009, when he was the starter at the hot corner in Augusta. But, my biggest concern is the 461 strikeouts to 132 walks which suggest Culberson is not ready for big league pitching.

Another National League injury has felled the Reds Scott Rolen, and for now it appears that Todd Frazier will get first shot at that slot. Drafted in the 37th round by the Rockies in 2004, Frazier opted for playing at Rutgers first, and was then selected as a first rounder by the Reds in 2007. Over six seasons in the Reds system, Frazier was .280-75-300, including 136 doubles, with 205 walks to 437 strikeouts, good for a .353 OBP. Last year, over 41 games Frazier showed even better pop, going .232-6-15, and this year he has upped the ante, with .275-3-6 totals over 20 games, and an improved OBP in the majors to .327 over the .289 last year. I like Frazier on a team that can indeed score runs.

With Nolan Reimold hurting, Baltimore brought forth their second round selection from 2008, Xavier Avery. At just 22, Avery has five minor league seasons under his belt with .266-18-151 totals, although the 260 runs and 125 swipes he accumulated suggests more in the way of table setting than pop. Unfortunately Avery also has just a .328 OBP as a minor leaguer, with 155 walks to 477 strikeouts. However, prior to his call-up this year, Avery did improve that number significantly, with 20 walks to 29 whiffs, good for a .378 on-base total to go along with .273-5-16 totals. This is a dramatic improvement, and makes Avery worth watching as well, though his shot at garnering too many at-bats this year in the majors is somewhat slim at this point. Still, watch and see if the improved minor league numbers hold, for if they do, the outfielder might have made a major jump.

Looking at some arms, the Phillies brought forth their first round pick in 2007 Joe Savery. Actually, Savery was first picked by the Dodgers in the 15th round of the 2004 draft, but chose to spend some collegiate time at Rice instead. Savery actually has a so-so minor league line, with 33-31, 4.06 totals over 497 innings. With 536 hits allowed along with 208 walks to just 354 strikeouts, suggest the lefty is hittable. Of interest though, Savery can keep the ball down as his 37 dingers allowed suggests. Still, for now the southpaw will be working out of the pen, and thus far has been ok (0-0, 3.60 over 10 innings) but, Savery could earn a spot start, and with success at that, obviously things change.

Tampa plugged Alex Cobb into the slot opened when Jeff Niemann was injured, and the fourth rounder from 2006 responded well with his first start, earning a win over Atlanta Saturday, hurling seven fine innings with six whiffs. Last year Cobb was 3-2, 3.42 over nine starts and 52.2 innings (1.329 WHIP). In the minors, Cobb was 35-28, 3.07 over 107 starts, with a solid 1.21 ratio (582.2 innings, 541 hits, 169 walks, and 516 hits). On a strong team, Cobb is as safe a bet as you might find for a young pitcher, although Matt Moore owners must note that there is a difference between that killer minor league success, and translating the numbers to the show. In fact, all the guys this week need to remember that.

By the way, in finishing, the Giants signed Brad Penny to a deal over the weekend, after a fleeting and failed stint in Japan (0-1. 10.80 over one start and 3.1 innings). Though the 34-year olds 2011 numbers with the Tigers were less than stellar (11-11, 5.30 over 181.2 innings), Penny did have good success with the Giants to finish off 2009 (4-1, 2.95 over six starts and 41.2 innings). Keep an eye out: at least he is not a rookie!

Last Updated on Thursday, 24 May 2012 08:56
 
May 14, 2012 (Week 6) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 14 May 2012 00:00

Now we are six weeks into the season, and it is certainly zooming past, just as certainly as it seems a hot summer looms, at least here in the East San Francisco Bay Area.

And, there were so many interesting names that popped by over the last cycle I could not hit them all (maybe next week) and stay sane. Since last week we focused a lot on injured third sackers, this week a quartet of arms have made their presence know, so let's start with them.

The biggest name on this week's review has to be Andy Pettitte, back with the Yankees. Andy has indeed had a great career, but "un-retirements" such as this don't work out (name one that has?). Pettitte started for the Pinstripes on Sunday, tossing 6.1 innings, allowing seven hits, four walks, and four runs. Since Andy was not exactly overpowering before his retirement, I feel pretty strong that this kind of line is what can be expected from the lefty. The Yanks might be able to throw him out there and score five runs enough of the time to squeeze a win (I think they are better off with David Phelps stretched out in the rotation) but these numbers will not help your roto team.

San Diego is one of a handful of teams (also Kansas City, Seattle, Houston, among others) that are really fun to watch rebuild, and one of the things the Padres have going is pitching. With Joe Wieland in the rotation, and Robbie Erlin in waiting, along with Tim Stauffer, Edinson Volquez, and Cory Luebke (who unfortunately is broken) and another fine looking young arm in Anthony Bass. An eighth round pick in 2005, from Wayne State University, Bass put together 29-17, 3.01 minor league numbers over 68 starts and 370.2 innings. He has followed up on two terrific late season starts (2-0, 1.68) and picked it right up this year, and though he is 1-4, Bass has an ERA of 3.23, a WHIP of 1.20, and is among the league leaders with 38 strikeouts. If Bass has not been snatched up already in your league, you better grab him this weekend. And, think about him as a serious potential keeper.

Colorado advanced top prospect Alex White after demoting the once promising, now struggling Jhoulys Chacin. A first round pick of the Tribe in 2009, White was swapped to the Rockies last year as part of the Ubaldo Jimenez deal. Before the swap White made three pretty good starts at the Jake (1-0, 3.60), then seven at Chase with less than stellar results (2-4, 8.42). At Colorado Springs he was 1-3, 2.92 over five starts and 24.2 innings. White's first assignment with Colorado was good for 6.1 innings, and a pair of runs, along with a loss, but White is worthy of a gamble in an NL only format. In a mixed league, if White is not on a reserve list similarly, he is worth a grab and a stash at worst.

Scott Diamond, of the Twins, is one of those rare diamonds who was never drafted, and signed as an amateur by the Braves in 2005. He as a pretty good 36-35, 3.70 over 600 innings, though Diamond is not overpowering (470 whiffs) and carries a 1.40 minor league WHIP (653 hits, 189 walks). Last year in the Twinkies rotation, Diamond was an uninspired 1-5, 5.07. And, although Diamond was 4-1, 2.60 over six starts, and then turned in a fine seven innings earlier in the week for a win (seven innings, four hits, six whiffs, no runs) I am not completely sold that Diamond is the answer to the Minnesota woes, although in fairness, he turned in a solid second start on Sunday, tossing seven more shutout innings. Only in a deep AL format should you take a shot at this however, those first two starts are hard to argue with.

Note also the former St. Louis selection (#11 in 2006) P.J. Walters was brought forth to try and spell the Twinkies. Walters also had a pretty good first start earlier in the week, and Walters is coming off pretty good Triple-A numbers (3-1, 2.70 at Rochester) but as with Diamond I have a hard time seeing what corner he has turned to suddenly become a pitcher who can consistantly dominate at the major league level.

I have had this notion for as long as Dana Eveland that he would be better than his career 19-24, 5.50 record says. I cannot say why save like so many pitchers, he has great stuff, and when it is on, he cannot be hit. "When" is the key word, for control just flees guys like him, inexplicably. Still, Eveland is only 28-years old, believe it or not, and Baltimore brought him up no decision, walked six, three runs, and will get another shot. With 54-36, 3.49 minor league numbers, Eveland is too good for the minors, and, well, I can always hope, right? Of course, be warned, in fantasy, that is the kiss of death, so do as I say, not as I do.

OK, closer patrol. First, Dale Thayer, the flavor of the week in San Diego is a 31-year old feel good story. Three-of-three in conversions, well, as with just about everyone on this list, you do need to ride the hot hand. However, in Oakland, Brian Fuentes is now the closer in favor of Grant Balfour. Bad choice. Oh, he might convert a few games, but Fuentes will blow up a lot more than he will help, and by the All Star Break will have worn out that welcome if not sooner.

While we are on feel good stories, another is the irrepressibly named Irving Falu, a 28-year old Puerto Rican import who just as wonderfully attended Indian Hills Community College, and then logged 949 minor league games with .276-18-318 totals with 186 swipes. Falu probably does not have a future as a starter in the Royals future star stoked lineup, but, he fits in perfectly as a utility player in that scheme, and you have to root for the guy. However, his potential contributions right now are pretty lean, especially in a mixed format.

The Mets Jordany Valdespin burst onto the New York scene with a bang, clubbing a pinch-hit three-run bomb for his first major league hit and, not much else since. Still the 24-year old Dominican product has a decent minor league resume of .283-33-174 with 86 steals, but his 91 walks to 256 strikeouts is worrisome. Great story, but Valdespin is probably no more than a utility player, if he sticks. Probably not worth much interest, if that, however, in the fantasy world.

On the other hand the Dodgers Scott Van Slyke--son of former star Andy--is a fine prospect, a 14th round pick of the Bums in 2005. A big--as in 6'5", 250 pounds--outfielder/first baseman, Van Slyke had a terrific 2011 at AA Chattanooga .248-20-92, last year, with a pretty good 65 walks to 100 whiffs, a marked improvement in strike zone judgement for him. He was hitting .336-1-8 at Albuquerque when called up this week, although with just one walk to 16 strikeouts, again showing the young slugger needs some time to adjust. I like Van Slyke a lot, and think he could be a first base answer to James Loney with some actual pop.

Last Updated on Wednesday, 16 May 2012 08:49
 
May 7, 2012 (Week 5) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 07 May 2012 00:00

Welcome back for another hot week of the Hotpage, and let's jump out of the box with Patrick Corbin, a southpaw drafted by the Angels in 2009, then traded with Joe Saunders to the Diamondbacks in 2010. We start with Corbin, because this has to be a time of the year where you guys might be scrounging for starting pitching, and the logical turn might be to Corbin.

Over the minors, the now 22-year old was 28-14, 3.83 over 70 starts, with 349 whiffs to 96 walks (1.25 WHIP), though I am a tad wary of picking him up at this point. Of Corbin's pair of big league starts one went pretty well (a win over 5.2 innings) and one not so (a loss over 3.1) but there is nothing that suggests any potential dominance as a starter (compare, say, to Drew Hutchison who is more of a strikeout pitcher) and I am guessing if Corbin sticks as a starter, he will get knocked around some as he adjusts to the majors.

Before we migrate to everyone's probably sore spot--third base--let's look at a couple of potential closers in waiting, starting with Oakland's Jordan Norberto. Of course we know that Grant Balfour is still the man in Oakland, but clearly Brian Fuentes is not, and Joey Devine is not either for sure. And, well, Fautino De Los Santos has been relegated to the bowels of Sacramento (I grew up there: it is no picnic) while Norbeto picked up the save for Jarrod Parker's first win. And, Balfour has struggled his last appearances (that is how Norbeto got his conversion) allowing six runs while picking up three saves. Anyway, in this year of goofy closing situations anything seems to go.

And, well, if you doubt the previous sentence, think of Norberto's fellow countryman, Rafael Dolis. The 23-year old, who was 8-5 with 17 saves last year at Iowa, now has a pair of saves and a win over the past week. Dolis might have also displaced yet another Dominican, Carlos Marmol who was never known for his control with 313 walks allowed over his 469 major league innings, although he has only allowed 297 hits, while striking out an incredible 608. Those numbers scream the phrase "effectively wild." Well, despite 97 saves the last couple of years, with just two saves, a 5.81 ERA, and two blown conversions, the door has opened for Dolis.

So, be open to picking up extra conversions via arms like these. I do think you should expect the incumbent closers--in this case Balfour and Marmol--to earn the lion's share of saves between now and the end of the year, but, also expect managers to go with the hot hand (think Yankees and White Sox and Angels, too). It's a crazy year, after all.

Continuing on the North Side, but before get to Tony Campana and the Chicago outfield, I must admit I was wrong about Bryan LaHair. I dismissed the 29-year old as a Quad-A player, when really he has a resume a lot like Kevin Millar, whom I recognized had real potential I do see LaHair potentially in the outfield as Anthony Rizzo advances, along with maybe Brett Jackson, and Campana.

I like the 13th round pick of the 2008 draft, who has broken out with his Cub mates hitting .306 with seven each of runs and steals over 36 at-bats, after a .259-1-6 stint with 24 swipes last year. Kind of like the Phils are playing Juan Pierre, and the Twins should play Ben Revere, guys like Campana are there to score runs. That he can do, and in an NL situation, I would certainly grab him as a fifth outfielder. In fact I would consider this even in a mixed format.

If you are looking for a little help behind the dish in the National League, take a peek at 28-year old Brett Hayes. Injuries have pretty much forced the hand of the Marlins and Hayes--and though it does not matter for fantasy purposes, is pretty good defensively--is hitting .300 over his 30 at-bats which is nearly double starter John Buck. Hayes is 28, which is just around the age most big league catchers come into their own, and I am thinking he could see increased playing time as he continues to hit. Hayes is not bad as a #2 catcher in an NL format. He might even graduate to #1 if he keeps it up.

OK, bad week at the hot corner. And, if you are a Kevin Youkilis owner, then Will Middlebrooks, Boston's fifth round pick in 2007 might be your next big thing. With .276-52-269 minor league numbers, including .333-9-27 this year before being called to Fenway, Middlebrooks is drawing some attention. I would watch the 128 walks to 449 whiffs, however, and keep an eye on how well Middlebrooks gets on base.

I do love the Brewers Taylor Green, whom I thought was going to make the club out of spring with his respectable September of 2011 (.270-0-1 over 37 at-bats) and especially following his solid .336-22-88 season at Nashville, with 36 doubles and an .828 OPS. Green had played second and third last year for the Brewers, and debuted for Milwaukee at first base Sunday, hitting a double his first at-bat of the season off Matt Cain. I like him better as a gamble than Middlebrooks. 

San Francisco is giving the third base gig of injured Pablo Sandoval to Conor Gillaspie. The team's first round pick in 2008, Gillaspie has had a few stabs at the majors (.229-1-3 over 29 September coffee sips), but he also brings .296-23-223 numbers over 429 games, including 91 doubles, and 178 walks to 243 strikeouts, good for a solid .364 OBP. I think Gillaspie will hang with the club till at least the Panda returns, and that his numbers will improve as he gets more comfortable. But, as with his mates so far above at the hot corner, none of these players is worth a mixed gamble yet.

Finally, looking at the Rays, it is true that Joe Maddon likes to get all his guys in the game as much as possible, but I would be surprised if Jeff Keppinger does not get the lion's share of playing time while Evan Longoria rehabs. Keppinger does have 103 appearances at third in the majors, and is hitting a solid enough .310-2-6 over 58 at-bats. Plus, though Keppinger does not walk a lot (157 times as a big leaguer) he is even harder to strike out (143 times). I would got with Keppinger over all the above were he available. On such a good team, he can relax and do his thing giving Maddon a tough problem of where to play him when Longo returns.

 

Last Updated on Monday, 07 May 2012 09:39
 
April 30, 2012 (Week 4) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 30 April 2012 00:00

How much more exciting could finishing up the first month of play be that with the appearance of two of the most followed prospects over the last two years, with the return of Mike Trout, and debut of Bryce Harper?

For Trout, who still holds his rookie status thanks to 135 at-bats last year (five shy of the limit) good for .220-5-16 numbers, meaning Trout spent 91 games (.36-11-38) at Double-A Arkansas, and just missed making the team out of spring this year. All Trout did at Salt Lake City was .406-1-13 with a 1.091 OPS (.467 OBP; .623 SLG) and since the Angels released Bobby Abreu to the tune of $9 million this year, you can expect Trout to play pretty much every day. He has, as you can see, nothing left to prove in the minors.

As for Harper, there is simply nothing left to beyond his double and RBI Saturday during his first game, and his web gem catch Sunday simply show just how special this kid can be. .290-18-61 totals with 27 swipes over just 129 games and all we can do is consider ourselves lucky to have witnessed a rookie crop with Trout, Harper, and the Athletics' Yoenis Cespedes. Should any of this troika be available for any odd reason in your free agent pool, run, do not walk to your transactions page and pick them up.

Moving to some corner spots, earlier in the week the Athletics picked up Luke Hughes to try and pick up some pop at third (I was actually at his first Oakland game, where Hughes comitted a pair of errors and drove the ball twice to the deepest part of the park only to fly out, making for a tough evening), and now have picked up Brandon Inge, just let go by the Tigers. I would actually expect Inge to log the bulk of time at the hot corner, though and though Hughes does have a few minor league games at first, it is probably a stretch that he would play there. Inge has .234-140-589 major league totals, while Hughes has .220-8-34 numbers. Despite essentially weak numbers, both are upgrades to what Oakland already has, at least at third.

Also in Oakland, don't look now, but first sacker Kila Ka'aihue is quietly hitting .310-0-2 over 14 games, and that might only be good for a .763 OPS, but it is a start, and maybe a sign that the big (6'4", 235 pounds) Hawaiian--who boasts a solid .390 minor league OBP--has finally gotten the hang of big league pitching. Keep an eye on him, for if Ka'aihue gets into a groove, the power will indeed follow.

Across the bay, since Aubrey Huff has forgotten that he performs well in even years, and has since fled to the DL as he tries to reorder his life. And, that measn for the most part Brandon Belt will be the everyday first baseman, and that is a good thing. It is one thing Belt needs to know to instill his confidence and sense of belonging. Just over the weekend, Belt supplied the go-ahead run on Saturday, and while Brett Pill might get some looks at first, and Buster Posey as well, this should afford Belt a chance to settle in without the pressure of competition. Keep an eye on his play for the next couple of weeks. (In fact, knowing Huff is in his contract year, with some left-handed pop, he becomes potential trade bait to a contender looking for said comodity. That is provided the Giants are not contending.)

And, though we have one more position player to check out, let's stay in San Francisco long enough to report out on Erick Hacker, who made his first start for the Giants on Friday. Hacker is a 29-year old throw back looking guy, stading in at 6'1", 230 pounds, with a big--and traditional looking--wind up replete with a big leg kick. But, he does not throw very hard, topping out around 89 MPH with his fastball. I was surprised that over almost six innings Friday, that the righty whiffed seven Padres, but at the big league level he does not look like much to gamble on. I am still much higher on another Eric:  that being Eric Surkamp.

San Diegoe advanced 24-year Blake Tekotte, their third round selection of the 2008 draft. The outfielder has a pretty good resume of .274-58-222 over 433 games, and after a solid .285-19-67 at Double-A San Antonio, Tekotte was brought up for a month (.176-0-1 over 19 games). He began this season at AAA Tucson, going .278-2-6 before the call-up, and though it is not a certainty the flychaser will stay with the team, for the rest of the year, he is one of many interesting young pieces to a rebuilding movement.

Staying in the west, Los Angeles recalled pitcher Nathan Eovaldi, a good looking 22-year old who made a splash last season with a 1-2, 3.63 mark over six starts and 34.2 innings. Eovaldi did cull 23 strikeouts, but also 20 walks (1.40 WHIP) so despite a good spring (1.72 ERA over 15.2 innings) the youngster went back to Chatanooga to start the season. There he has posted fine 0-0, 2.08 numbers over four starts and 14 innings (14 whiffs and three walks) before his call-up. Expect Eovaldi to start out fleshing the pen, but if he holds his own, expect the 11th round pick in 2008 to be in the rotation by next season, and maybe even sooner.

Speaking of recalls, Houston did just that with lefty Jordan Lyles, the Astros first round pick, once again from the 2008 June draft. At 20, last year Lyles was pushed to Minute Maid, probably prematurely, as his 2-8, 5.36 totals over 15 starts and 94 innings (1.41 WHIP with 67 whiffs) indicates. The lefty was 3-3, 3.61 over 10 starts while not in the majors at Triple-A Oklahoma City, and this season has been 4-0, 3.41 over four starts, allowing just 24 hits, four walks, and 24 strikeouts over 24 innings, with just one dinger allowed. He pitched pretty well against the Reds Sunday, going six innings, allowing three runs on four hits, three walks and five strikeouts. The Astros might scratch for wins this year, and it could even be a loss leader for Lyles, but this too is an arm worth watching.

Finally, don't look now but Baltimore's Pedro Strop has earned two saves and a win since last Tuesday. Since Jim Johnson is down, Strop is a pretty good sleeper--at least for this week--to add to your team and maybe pick up a save or two. The righty is a 26-year old, who notched 2-1, 2.05 totals last year over 22 Baltimore innings, but before that was less successful out of the Texas pen (0-1, 7.24 over 33 games). Ride the hot hand, as they say.

Last Updated on Monday, 30 April 2012 08:29
 
April 23, 2012 (Week 3) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 23 April 2012 00:00

Into a third full week of play we go, with some teams making moves to replace the injured and underperforming, while other teams have under-the-radar players we should give a hard look at now.

Like Houston outfielder J.D. Martinez, a 20th-round selection of the Astros in 2009 out Nova Southwestern University in Florida, of all places (think he was the star of the league  that school?). Over three minor league seasons Martinez assembled excellent .342-43-217 totals over 298 games, with 89 doubles and an excellent 110 walks to 196 strikeouts. Last year Martinez was promoted to the bigs and responded as the new left fielder with .274-6-35 totals over 208 at-bats. In the majors Martinez logged 13 walks to 48 strikes, good for a .319 OBP. This year Martinez is hot out of the blocks, hitting .330-3-14 over the first two weeks, but the real stat of note is the 11 walks to 13 strikeouts the outfielder has culled over 50 2012 at-bats. Martinez should be active on all rosters, and looks like a real future bright spot on the Astros path.

An American League counterpart to Martinez might be Oakland's right fielder Josh Reddick. A 17th round pick of the Red Sox in 2006, Reddick had .278-86-295 totals in the Boston system over 466 games and five years, debuting as an extra outfielder less than modest totals in 2009 (.169-2-4) and 2010 (.194-1-5), hitting a stride last year with .280-7-28 totals over 254 at-bats. In the 2011 off-season, Oakland then swapped for Reddick as part of the Andrew Bailey deal, and the Athletics installed him as their everyday right fielder. Reddick has responded with .283-2-3 numbers so far, playing a terrific right field (Strat-O-Matic players should note that Reddick has a terrific arm). Again, Reddick should be on your radar.

Continuing with the outfield, Arizona advanced their first round pick (and #17 overall) in 2009, A.J. Pollock. Pollock went .277-3-22 over 63 rookie games after being drafted, but in 2010 injured the growing plate on his throwing arm and missed the entire year. In 2011 returned to play at AA Mobile, hitting .307-8-73, with a terrific 41 doubles and 36 swipes, and the outfielder had a hot start to this season .340-0-5--following Chris Young's injury, the Dbacks promoted the 24-year old. Pollock's stay in the bigs will be probably be short-lived, with Young, Justin Upton, and Jason Kubel as the regulars, but Pollock will likely be a starter for the team in a couple of years.

One more outfielder who might raise an eyebrow, especially in an American League format, is now former Cub  Marlon Byrd. A tenth round pick in 1999 by the Phillies, Byrd played in Philly (.271-13-79), then Washington (.245-7-44), followed by Texas (.295-40-212), and then the Cubs (.271-21-103) putting together .278-81-438 totals over 1069 games. Byrd was really a solid mid-range starter until a beaning last year reduce his playing time and numbers to .276-9-35 over 119 games. Boston needs outfield help with Carl Crawford, Jacoby Ellsbury and Ryan Kalish all presently injured, but Byrd is really one of many at this juncture. Still, in a deep AL format he could indeed be of some help, at least until the Boston regulars all return.

I have always been a fan of Nick Johnson (maybe because I spent a year in Sacramento at the same High School where Johnson graduated)  who was selected out of C.K. McClatchy High in 1996 by the Yankees. Always loaded with a great eye, serious talent, and as brittle a body as the majors have known, Johnson has had mixed success. As a full timer in Washington over 2005-06, then in his late 20's, Johnson looked to be reaching stride with .289-15-74 and then .290-23-77 numbers that featured 190 walks to 124 strikeouts. Injured for all of 2007, Johnson struggled in 2008 with limited play (.220-5-20), but he returned to form in 2009 with the Nationals hitting .295-6-44 over 98 games before being swapped to the Marlins where he finished with .279-2-18 numbers. Johnson then signed with the Yankees to DH, but was injured after 24 games (.167-2-8) and then spent 55 games in the minors in 2011 (.201-6-13) and presuably his career was over. Well, the now 34-year old is now an Oriole, and though he has 23 at-bats to his credit this year, Johnson still is searching for his first hit. I still think Johnson could be a valuable bench player in the majors with 512 walks to 552 strikeouts, and an ability to get on base, but that is it. I will let him go elsewhere if you will. 

Shifting to some arms, Drew Hutchison was a 15th round pick of the Blue Jays in 2009, and he has put together very nice totals of 18-9, 2.46 over 45 starts and 234.2 innings. Hutchison whiffed 246 over that span, with just 55 walks to 187 hits, and best of all a spectacularly few seven homers allowed. Hutchison was promoted and given his first start and though the lefty did earn his first win, he also allowed eight hits, five runs, and three walks to four whiffs over his first 5.1 innings. Still the 21-year old has numbers that could point to dominance, so Hutchison is worth a risk if you need a starter in a deep format, and at worst is worth tracking in a mixed league.

Baltimare signed Japanese import Wei-Yin Chen to a deal this off-season, and the 25-year old, who logged 36-30 numbers with Chunichi between 2008-11 struck out 500 over 631.1 innings, allowing 518 hits while walking 153 (1.08 walks) though 47 homers (compare that to Hutchison). Chen has two Orioles starts under his belt now, with a 1-0, 3.27 mark over 11 innings (13 hits, 10 whiffs, 3 walks and a homer) and the southpaw is certainly worth a gamble in most formats where owners are pitching starved. And, while Hutchison might have more talent, Chen has more experience at this juncture.

Marco Estrada was a sixth round pick of the Nationals in 2005, out of Cal-State Long Beach, although Estrada is a native of Sonora, Mexico. Plucked off waivers from Washington after marginal (0-1, 7.20) and minimal (20 innings) major league experience by the Brewers. Over seven starts last year, Estrada was 4-8, 4.08, with 88 strikeouts over 92 innings. Estrada looks pretty good so far this year as a member of the rotation, however, with 0-0, 2.45 numbers over 11 innings and now one start. With 16 strikeouts to just seven hits and three walks, the 28-year old certainly looks like he could be an NL sleeper.

Finally, I worked the Oakland game last Friday where Graham Godfrey and his mates walked nine Indians, and this week Godfrey was sent down and will be replaced with Jarrod Parker. Parker, acquired as part of the Trevor Cahill swap and the former first rounder by Arizona in 2007 looks like the real deal. At 29-19, 3.45 in the minors, Parker has 345 strikeouts over 366.1 innings, with 341 hits and 132 walks (1.29 WHIP). In the spring Parker looked great and he is 1-0, 2.18 over four starts and 20.2 innings at Triple-A Sacramento this year. Parker is more than worth a flier, especially in pitcher friendly Oakland.

 

Last Updated on Monday, 23 April 2012 11:17
 
April 16, 2012 (Week 2) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 16 April 2012 00:00

Into the second week of the season we move, and fortunately I no longer think of April 15 as tax day. I think of it as Jackie Robinson Day, which is so much better in every way (although I love our country, and have no problem paying my taxes, for, after all, I do use the roads and like to depend upon the police and fire departments, and so on).

Anyway, on the heels of Jackie Robinson Day, there are a couple of players local to the Bay Area (San Francisco, that is) who deserve a look, starting with pitcher Santiago Casilla, for the now 32-year old relief pitcher is pegged to the the Giants closer with Brian Wilson and his tired elbow likely shut down for the season. Casilla is a hard thrower who has banked really strong seasons for San Francisco since 2010 (9-4, 1.91 over 104 games and 109.2 innings) logging eight saves over that spread. As my mate Perry Van Hook noted on his special Sunday Captain's Log Casilla will be among a committee converting from the Giants pen, but I am guessing Casilla gets the bulk of conversions.

While we are at it, I have been a fan of Hector Sanchez, the San Francisco back up backstop since the beginning of last season, where the 22-year old Venezuelan began the season at High-A San Jose (.301-11-58), then skipped AA and moved to Fresno of the PCL (.261-1-26) and even spent time at ATT (.258-0-1). Sanchez presence forced the Giants to jettison two experienced catchers in Chris Stewart and Eli Whiteside, and over three games so far the youngster is .286-0-3. Sanchez not only catches for Barry Zito, but also will spell Buster Posey to ensure the Giants mainstay catcher does not burn out. This kid can hit and in an NL only format, he is a good #2 catcher.

With the outfield causing some grief for fantasy and major league owners, let's look at a few possibilities there starting with Matt Carpenter who has been getting time with Lance Berkman nursing a sore body. A 13th round pick of St. Louis in 2009, out of Texas Christian, Carpenter climbed through the minor league ranks as a third baseman. As a minor leaguer Carpenter hit a solid .300-27-161 with 205 walks to 209 strikeouts (.408 OBP). Carpenter has been playing the outfield and coming off a big Sunday (4-for-4, a homer and five RBI) Carpenter is now hitting .409-1-10 over 22 at-bats. Like Sanchez, he can hit.

The Mets promoted flychaser Kirk Nieuwenhuis, a third round pick in 2008, in the wake of the Andres Torres injury, and the 24-year old third round pick in 2008 responded with his first major league homer last week. With a solid minor league resume of .280-44-193 over 383 games, Nieuwenhius brings a solid complement of skills (a little pop with a .464 SLG, a little speed with 47 steals, an ability to get on with a .354 OBP) and is a good bet right now in NL only leagues, and is worth tracking in a mixed format.

Across the league, I had my doubts about Cleveland's Shelley Duncan with .242-31-110 career totals over 236 major league games, but the 32-year old outfielder is playing every day, and hitting the ball well (.333-2-6) as the everyday left fielder for the Tribe. With Grady Sizemore in question for the year (and ever), Duncan, the progeny of pitching coach Dave Duncan, will continue to see at-bats as long as he keeps hitting, and right now shows no signs of stopping. When he is ready, Johnny Damon is going to join Duncan manning left field, but it is not going to be a strict platoon so Duncan will still see plenty of trips to the dish. And really, what are the chances a 38-year Damon makes it through the season healthy now that he has to don a mitt regularly and not DH?

The Red Sox are having outfield injury issues with Carl CrawfordJacoby Ellsbury and Ryan Kalish on the shelf. They recently brought up journeyman Jason Repko (.226-16-67 over 355 major league games), and they also have Darnell McDonald (.250-17-69 over 277 games) but I really like Ryan Sweeney the best of the bench possibilities. Sweeney and his .284-14-174 numbers over 479 contests makes the best contact and looks like the guy who has a big year or two in him. Go that way.

Finishing with some arms, a very nice looking relief pitcher (so far) is the Yankees David Phelps. A 14th round pick of the New Yorkers in 2008 out of Notre Dame, Phelps has been a starter in the minors, with solid 38-15, 2.66 numbers over 86 starts and 496.2 innings. Phelps 410 whiffs to 112 walks and 476 hits (1.18 WHIP) and over his first 8.1 innings, has allowed just one hit (an unlikely dinger to Vernon Wells). Phelps could well find himself in the Yankees rotation if he continues to be effective and if Phil Hughes' struggles persist.

The Rockies gave Drew Pomeranz, part of the spoils of the Ubaldo Jimenenz swap of last fall his first start of 2012 and the fireballer was knocked around (five runs, nine hits, and a pair of walks over 4.1 innings Sunday). But, the right hander and former first round pick out of Tennessee in 2010 by Cleveland is much too good for the minors at this point with 4-3, 1.71 totals over 21 starts and 105 minor league innings. Pomeranz has everything that suggests success but last year over four starts he was 2-1, 5.40 over four more starts and 18.1 innings, so expect the 23-year old to struggle a little over the season as he gets the hang.

Finally, San Diego promoted Joe Wieland, part of the riches San Diego received (along with Robbie Erlin, who also should be on your radar) in exchange for Mike Adams last summer. Wieland, a fourth round pick of the Rangers in 2008 was 33-19, 3.29 over 86 starts and 439 minor league innings. With 408 strikeouts to just 80 walks, Wieland has serious control (431 hits and only 28 homers) and though he was rocked his first start (six each runs and hits and a walk over five innings) he is a better bet than Pomeranz partially because of his control skills, but mostly because of his home ball park. Both are rookies, though, so guard accordingly.

 

Last Updated on Monday, 16 April 2012 08:55
 
April 9, 2012 (Week 1) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 09 April 2012 00:00

Into the first sort of week of play we go, although as I write it is indeed Sunday, and a full complement of games has presented itself. Which is good fun, much like going to a good smorgasboard where most of the food/match-ups are worth pursuing.

Of course that means some players on our rather extensive list of curiousities that make up this week's Hotpage are not worthy of much use for your roto team or you, but to start with, Kansas City's Lorenzo Cain certainly is. Acquired in 2010 as part of the swap that sent Zack Greinke to the Brewers, Cain made a splash with .306-1-13 totals, with seven swipes, that year as a Royal over 158 at-bats, but then spent 2011 largely at Triple-A Omaha (23 major league at-bats last year) but with Melky Cabrera gone, Cain is the main man in center for the Royals. With a .295 minor league average, a .368 OBP (272 walks to 575 whiffs), 156 doubles and 141 swipes, Cain should be on just about every imaginable roster and format. The only question is team depth, and whether he rides the bench awaiting an opportunity.

The Tigers do not shy away from advancing their young pitchers. Justin Verlander climbed quickly, and Rick Porcello probably before he was ready. So, enter Drew Smyly, a second round pick in 2010 of the Tiger stripes. He has had 22 starts in the minors since being drafted, going 11-7, 2.26 over 127.2 innings. Smyly whiffed 131 while walking just 38 and allowing only 106 hits (1.14 WHIP), but, he has only one start above Double-A (0-1, 16.20 over 1.2 innings). He is worth watching, but probably not worth grabbing unless you can stash the 22-year old left somewhere on a reserve list.

OK, let's start the closer patrol. And, believe me, if the names Alfredo Aceves, Mark Melancon, Jose Valverde, Kyle Farnsworth, and even Mariano Rivera are not freaking you out right now, do look at the Nationals Henry Rodriguez. As Rodriquez was drafted by Oakland, I did get to see him in 2009-10, and the dude does indeed bring it at 100 MPH. He is the perfect replacement for the ailing Drew Storen, letting Tyler Clippard stay in his effective setup role. FYI, Rodriguez does have 110 whiffs over 98 innings, with just 86 hits allowed. It is the 61 walks that are the bugaboo, but hey, as long as he converts.

So, next I need to acknowledge Fernando Rodney, the current closer for the Rays while Kyle Farnsworth is convalescing. Rodney is a tease in the Rodriguez mold: he throws hard. The righty has 431 innings under his belt with 391 strikeouts, but 396 hits, and 233 walks (1.458 WHIP). Rodney also has a pair of saves, and the guy he is spelling--Farnsworth--has just as confused a resume. Actually, my mate Scott Pianowski of Yahoo! said it best with a Tweet earlier in the day: "The only thing worse than not getting Rodney as a FAAB pickup is getting Rodney."

Add the White Sox Hector Santiago to that group, for the Pale Hose pen is just a bit shaky as well. But, the 23-year old Santiago is another potentially dominant force, with 365 minor league strikeouts over 343 minor league innings (302 hits, 157 walks, 1.33 WHIP). Santiago earned the save Saturday for Chicago's south side, and he may still be in the wings, but keep your eye on the guy. Robin Ventura's has his there.

Late last year I was told by the Giants office folks that Brett Pill did not really factor in the Giants future plans. Small wonder as Pill, a first sacker, has Brandon Belt and Aubrey Huff in front of him, not to mention the Giants want to play Buster Posey some at first, and eventually Pablo Sandoval will need a new home for his girth no matter how quick the big guy is. Still, Pill can hit (.312-25-107 at Fresno last year) as he is one of three Giants to homer his first professional at-bat. In fact he has two at-bats this year, one a pinch homer, and one a walk, so the guy can get on base. Pill, however, is no more than a right handed bench bat. A good one, but that is it, though maybe S.F. can figure a way to ship him across the bay to Oakland where the Athletics could surely use any kind of bat.

Two pitchers I would run from right now? First is the Braves Jair Jurrjens, who was clobbered his first start (0-1, 6.23 over 4.1 frames) who is a lot more like his 2010 7-6, 4.64 than his 2011 13-6, 2.96. Jurrjens is just not overpowering (483 whiffs over 706.1 innings) and the guys makes me nervous.

Same with Arizona's Josh Collmenter, whom I have on three teams right now, and who will be riding the bench on all three for a while. Collmenter, much like Jurrjens and Joe Saunders, has to be sneaky, and guys like that make me nervous. While watching the Giants tee off of Collmenter on Sunday, announcer Mike Krukow said it best: "Collmenter is simply not fooling anyone." Well, save me in drafting him, and yes it is early, but at this point I would rather gamble on a guy who can blow the ball passed everyone. Stash either Collmenter or Jurrjens or Saunders should you have them. They do have hot streaks, but the rest of the time, they will kill you. In fact, despite his nice start on Saturday, add Tommy Hunter of the Orioles in that mix as well.

San Diego has a lot of nice young players, and a lot of outfield options, but I really like Chris Denorfia a lot. Now 31, a 19th round pick out of Wheaton in 2002 by the Reds, Denorfia has had all kinds of injury issues over the years, but, he also can hit and get on base. The outfielder has played 340 games as a major leaguer, with 212 as a Padre over the past three years, he is .271-14-55 with 19 swipes. Maybe that is only good as a fifth outfielder in an NL only format, but within that environ, that is pretty good.

Adam LaRoche hit .172-3-15 over 151 at-bats last year, but even with that, his nine-year 162-game average is .268-26-92 with an .816 OPS. LaRoche is back, with a pair of homers through the weekend, meaning he is back. He should be active on any kind of roster, helping your team with those terrific numbers. By the way, LaRoche's resurgance helps the Nationals a lot, for his presence means Mike Morse can play in the outfield, making that collection noticably better.

Finally, early in the spring it looked to me like Seattle's great right fielder Ichiro Suzuki was on the down side. Ichiro has six hits his first 17 at-bats, and the 38-year old needs 566 hits to net the magic 3000 in the American Major Leagues. Over his Seattle career, Ichiro has collected an average of 225 hits a season, meaning a little over two years from now he should be there. I am now guessing he will.

Last Updated on Monday, 09 April 2012 09:53
 
April 2, 2012 (Odd Men Out) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 02 April 2012 00:00

I have been asked a lot the last week if I am worried about Ben Revere (whom I have in Tout Wars, the XFL, and NFBC) or Kyle Seager (whom I have in all the same leagues  plus Todd and I own him in the FSTA league) or was worried about Jeff Niemann before he got his starting gig?

And, the answer to all is and has been a resonant "no."

That is because every team has a player on the bubble for playing time, and more often than not, and every team will endure enough slumps and injuries to allow the fourth outfielder and utility infielder to generally log 300-plus at-bats. Of course this is only germaine to NL or AL only formats, as mixed leagues are shallow enough to really allow for starters everywhere.

But, in AL or NL only leagues, teams always suffer holes, so the most important thing an owner can do is vigilantly scrape and claw for that playing time and those innings and at-bats.

So, this time let's look at players I like to grab not just some at-bats in a part time role, but players who have a chance to even move into full time status, starting with the Twins Trevor Plouffe. Right now Plouffe is listed as an extra outfielder, but he also spent a fair chunk of time at shortstop (59 major league games) and really has better pop than either elderly incumbant Jamey Carroll or Alexi Casilla. The former 2004 #1 pick of the Twinkies just seems a better fit in that infield. 

The extras in the Boston outfield- Darnell McDonald, Cody Ross, and Ryan Sweeney--whose surnames read like a law firm seem like they will be scrambling for time as well, and going into the season Ross looks to be a starter, while Sweeney and McDonald will platoon while Kalish and Carl Crawford see healthy bodies. Well, I really like McDonald here (sorry Ryan, burned too many times) seeing and teeing off against lefties, getting 300 at-bats, and assembling numbers like the .270-9-34 he knocked for Boston a couple of years ago.

The Yankees are revered, though aged on the left side of the infield with Alex Rodriguez and Derek Jeter, and I would expect 24-year old Eduardo Nunez to improve upon his very good 2011 (.265-5-30 with 22 swipes) spelling the future Hall of Famers. Need I say more?

Jason Donald will wind up as the starting third sacker for the Tribe--barring a resurgence from Lonnie Chisenhall--by the end of April. Oh, Jack Hanahan will get some at-bats, and he might have a glove, but he cannot hit a major league fastball and Donald has .286-35-201 totals over six minor league seasons. he also has a .373 OBP and 54 steals and only injuries held the 26-year old back last year.

The Phillies are also have their injury issues between Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, and they also now have table setter Juan Pierre in tow. But I think John Mayberry, Jr. is going to build upon his very good (.273-15-49 with 8 swipes) 2011, and probably even move into a full time role. The biggest issue facing Mayberry is his big swing which is vulnerable to the whiff. But, if Jeff Francouer can do it, so can Mayberry the younger.

Washington is kind of melange of old and new, although in the outfield, the teeth are generally longer. Mike Morse--who also plays first--is quite a hitter, but also quite injured most of the time. So, the competition is really among Rick Ankiel, Jayson Werth, and Roger Bernadina. Well, 37-year old Mark DeRosa figures to get some serious playing time here. DeRosa last played full time in 2009 (.250-23-78) and has also suffered from those injuries since, managing only 73 games over the two ensuing seasons. Surely Bryce Harper is in line for one of those outfield slots when someone falters, but DeRosa is already there and looks primed for a last hurrah.

Arizona's outfield is well set with Jason Kubel, Chris Young, and Justin Upton, but don't dismiss Gerardo Parra. Kubel has also had his down time over the past couple of seasons, and as a #4 outfielder, Parra could be productive should he simply repeat last year's .292-8-46 totals with 15 swipes over 141 games. Of course, I would not expect 141 games, but I would figure 300 at-bats with similar numbers.

 Aubrey Huff is coming off his annual sub-par odd season off year. He is also in a contract year, and just barely ahead of Brandon Belt--who is the Giants future--at first base. Huff is also the fourth outfielder (something left hitter seems to be flip flopping in left with Belt, as well) but don't be discouraged in having either. Figure the Giants will do a lot of platooning and both will capture 400-plus at-bats. Not to mention, Huff is expendable to a late season change to a team seeking left handed pop.

Last Updated on Monday, 02 April 2012 08:36
 
March 26, 2012 (Ex Post Touto, from New York) PDF Print E-mail
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Written by Lawr Michaels   
Monday, 26 March 2012 00:00

Well, if you read my Tout Wish List piece published Saturday morning, just before the American League Tout Wars auction, you can see the prelude to what I actually drafted (which follows).

I did get mostly what I wanted, not so much in terms of players--though I did nab a few on that wish list--as achieve the objective of filling my roster with as many everyday players and at-bats as I could.

So, let's simply cut to the chase and get to what I bought:

  • C: J.P. Arencibia ($14)-20-homer power, and his average will rise.
  • C: Kelly Shoppach ($3)-I was looking at Tyler Flowers for this spot, but Shoppach came up and I think will produce as well for the anticipated price (about what I thought Flowers would cost). So, I simply went for it.
  • 1B: Mitch Moreland ($14)-I had targeted Moreland and his outfield/first base eligibility at $13. This works.
  • 2B: Ben Zobrist ($24)-Again, wrote down a stat base and put Zobrist's name after it and wrote in $24. Again, position flexibility. I had wanted Howie Kendrick for this slot, but he went for $25 (I anticipated $20) so that was a little too far out of range. I already had Zobrist in the outfield, so I adjusted accordingly with my roster.
  • 3B: Danny Valencia ($14)-I was hoping to get Mark Reynolds here, but he went for $21. Though Valencia should cost around $11, but this is fine. He should begin really stepping it up with the average in his third season.
  • SS: Erick Aybar ($20)-I thought I could get Aybar for $17 so this is a little more, but I like what he can do and I like it even better hitting in front of that Albert Pujols guy.
  • MI: Ryan Raburn ($12)-Yet again multiple positions, and 14 homers last year, with 15 and 16 before that respectively, the guy could break out seriously. 
  • CI: Kyle Seager ($4)-My understanding from the Mariners brass is he will be the third baseman: that a line drive hitter such as Seager has to play every day, and that Figgins will spell third, outfield, and maybe some second. Seager can also cover short, and the $4 is exactly what I anticipated.
  • OF: Nick Swisher ($21)- Just a little more than the $19 I hoped, but Swish is ever so consistent, and for that reason I just love having him on my roster.
  • OF: Ben Revere ($13)-Right at range (anticipated $14) I think Revere will hit well and steal.
  • OF: Dayan Viciedo ($11)-Was hoping to grab Coco Crisp for an outfield slot, but he went for $20 which was enough more than the $15 I was thinking. And, Viciedo gets to start and can hit, for sure.
  • OF: Ryan Kalish ($1)-Some early injury questions, but the kid has a gig if he can get healthy fast enough. Nice price if it works: I am not out much if not.
  • UT: Brendan Ryan ($5)-Again, the Seattle front office loves him as long as he stays healthy. I hope he does and their devotion is justified.
  • SW: Jeff Niemann ($8)-The Swingman experiment for me, I decided to blow my gamble on pitching (only two others did) figuring you really can never have enough pitching. Ideally I can grab some extra at-bats from my reserve list and the free agent pool. Or, at worst make a trade because someone will need a starter.
  • SP: C.C. Sabathia ($26)-Highest priced item, but he is so consistent, and offsets a lot of bad performances elsewhere. Not to mention he seems so durable.
  • SP Derek Holland ($15)-A gamble, but one with whiffs and potentially high reward.
  • SP: Brandon McCarthy ($14)-Thought I could get him for $13, so this is just fine. He is good. Now, if he can repeat.
  • SP: Justin Masterson ($9)-Always been a fan, and after last year, I like him more. Nice price.
  • SP: Luke Hochevar ($8)-I was looking at Ogando for this slot, but Alexi went for $10 and that was too much. This is fine, though in fact I already got a trade offer for him.
  • RP: Jose Valverde ($19)-Wrote in $19 for a closer. Bingo.
  • RP: Vinnie Pestano ($4)-Kind of surprised I got the interim Cleveland closer this cheaply. But, I have no problem with it.
  • RP: Louis Coleman ($1)-Was really hoping for Tim Collins or Aaron Crow here, but I thought they might cost a little more. And, I thought someone would bid two, but again, for a buck, the guy has good stuff and I can live with it.
  • RP: Tony Sipp ($1)-My first nominee and acquisition, Sipp is just fine as a middle guy, and even better backing Pestano.
  • RES: Chris Tillman-A good spring and a lot of talent and hope. Maybe his time has finally come.
  • RES: Brandon Inge-Probably makes the team, and probably gets to start while Miguel Cabrera nurses his damaged cheekbone.
  • RES: Michael Saunders-Getting a chance to play so as a reserve pick, can't lose.
  • RES: Munenori Kawasaki--31-year old Japanese rookie who can do all the basics. And play all the infield positions.
  • Again, nothing flashy, but steady. So, I am happy to be the tortoise. He did win, you know.

     

    Last Updated on Monday, 26 March 2012 09:20
     
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