Mastersball, fantasy baseball, scouting, analysis, projections

If you haven’t, I’ll fill you in. They’re awful.

Since the All-Star break, they are by far the worst hitting team in baseball. Their record since then, 12-20, doesn’t indicate how bad they’ve actually been.

As a team, the Mets are hitting .214 since the break. That’s 17 points below the 29^th hitting team, the Seattle Mariners. They’ve scored just 90 runs in those 32 games (less than three runs per game), good for dead last in the majors. David Wright just collected his first RBI in the month of August.

But it seems to me that Omar Minaya and the Mets’ front office is using this KRod situation to deflect the media attention. And now with word that they won’t pay him for the remainder of the year, the indication is that they’ll release him in Spring Training next season to try to void the rest of his ridiculously bad contract.

Well Minaya, if you weren’t one of the worst GMs in baseball, maybe KRod wouldn’t be on the hook for $17.5 million in 2012. What in God’s name were you thinking?

First of all, $11.5 million per year (what he's due to make next year) to pay a closer is ridiculous enough, but if you’re going to do it, at least let it be one of the best closers in baseball. And KRod has been that.

But Minaya and the front office are simply making Rodriguez take the fall for what has been a truly awful past few years of management.

I guess we shouldn’t have expected much from the same guy who traded Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore, and Brandon Phillips to the Indians for a half-season rental of Bartolo Colon while he was still the GM of the Expos. But man, he’s been truly awful.

Aside from the no-brain deal for Johan Santana, Minaya has done nothing positive for the New York Mets.

In 2006, he sent Heath Bell to the Padres for a pair no-name busts. He paid $53 million for four years of an aging Pedro Martinez. Another $15 million for Moises Alou. Then $25 million for the slap-hitting Luis Castillo, who everyone in Queens seems to absolutely hate. And my personal favorite: when he waited way too long in the 2008 off-season and had to over-pay for Oliver Perez, giving him a cool $36 million.

We still have yet to see how the Jason Bay (348 AB, 6 HR, .259 BA) signing works out, though so far it’s been particularly awful.

And then there’s the draft, where Minaya has failed to come up with any big-time, or even mediocre, players.

And after the Mets post-break slide and the continued losing of faith by the team’s fans, chief operating officer Fred Wilpon was asked if Minaya would return to ruin the Mets’ hopes again next season.

"Is the sun going to come up tomorrow?" Wilpon told the Miami Herald.

Lovely.

But I can’t help but get bothered by this entire Francisco Rodriguez situation.

First of all, KRod is clearly in the wrong. He lost his temper at Citi Field, sent his children’s grandfather to the hospital, and now he needs thumb surgery on his throwing hand and will miss the remainder of the 2010 season.

The Mets are trying to avoid paying him the rest of this season, which will cost him just over $3 million, in addition to the $125,000 he already lost when he was suspended two days without pay following the incident.

So far, the moves are completely understandable.

But now that it looks like the front office is going to try to void his contract for the next two seasons, they are going too far.

The Mets converted his contract to non-guaranteed, which means KRod can be cut at times during Spring Training next season, paid just under $2 million for 2011 rather than the $11.5 million he’s owed, and get off scot-free from the $17.5 million owed for 2012.

In two seasons with the Mets, Rodriguez has collected seven wins, saved 60 games, had an ERA around 3.00, and blown just 12 games in 123 appearances. He’s been as solid as they come. He’s been healthy too, as this is the first injury-shortened year he’s had as a nine-year professional.

But for all he’s done, after one mistake, Minaya is going to try to screw him. Screw him out of a horrendous contract that Minaya himself agreed to. And screw him out of most of the money he’s due to make from now until the end of 2012.

With all of the horrific acts we’ve seen out of professional athletes (and this is not to endorse KRod’s actions), rarely have you seen a team act this way afterward. Miguel Cabrera beat his wife and played the next day. How many times have players broke their hand by punching the dugout and came back the following season?

This is simply Minaya trying to save himself from one of many terrible contracts he’s agreed to over the years. He’s using this situation to try to get some of the money back that he’s so callously blown over his tenure as the Mets’ GM. And so he can do what with it? Sign another player with a declining skill-set to a terrible contract?

Should the Mets go through with a complete front-office makeover this off-season?

Is the sun going to come up tomorrow?

I was fortunate enough to visit Cooperstown last weekend and caught my first look at the Baseball Hall of Fame. And I have to say, I was a bit disappointed.

If you’re a big baseball fan and haven’t been there yet, I certainly recommend going. But I may have built it up too much in my head before I got there, and the presentation of the most important artifacts in baseball history seemed a bit bland to me.

But that’s not even what made me the most upset.

Traveling through the hall, I was awestruck by hand-written letters from George Herman (Babe) Ruth, captivated by Lou Gehrig’s locker, uniform, and glove, and mesmerized by Honus Wagner memorabilia, including his three-million-dollar baseball card.

And as I walked past all of this amazing history, I eventually found myself in the room they title, “Today’s Game.” In that room was memorabilia from important recent events of every major league team. And right in the middle of the room was something from every history-setting moment that has occurred during the 2010 season.

Roy Halladay’s hat and ball from the perfect game. And the same from Ubaldo Jimenez’s no-hitter. And then there, in the case next to Ubaldo’s, was something that truly angered me.

On the upper left-hand corner of the case rested a Washington Nationals cap, a used baseball, and a picture of Stephen Strasburg. It was from his first game as a major leaguer, a 7-inning, 14-strikeout performance against the Pirates.

It’s funny too, because Strasburg didn’t set any records during that game. Well, if you really want to dig you can find a record for almost anything. So to be fair, he became the “first pitcher in history to strikeout at least 11 batters without issuing any walks in his pro debut.”

But he didn’t even set the record for most strikeouts in a major league debut. That belongs to Karl Spooner (1954) and J.R. Richard (1971), who each fanned 15 guys in their first start. And I didn’t see a single piece of history from either of those games.

Don’t get me wrong, Strasburg’s first start for the Nats was a special moment. It was fun to watch. He threw 34 of his 94 pitches at 98 miles per hour or higher. You can’t argue with the entertainment factor.

But was it Hall of Fame-caliber? Did he deserve to be immediately part of the Hall of Fame? The same Hall that includes artifacts from legends, the best players to ever suit up a pair of cleats, and the same Hall that wouldn’t even elect Roberto Alomar in during his first year of eligibility?

Strasburg, though, he’s in there. He threw seven innings. He played a meaningless mid-June game between two teams who won’t even end the season at .500. And his cap and a ball from the game are sitting front and center in the Hall of Fame.

I really don’t know what to make of it. It has become increasingly clearer to me over the recent years that the fans are starting to control the game. Which I understand, I mean, the fans make baseball a very profitable business. But maybe the fans are just becoming more ignorant. More lazy. More enthralled by simple, high-key events that appear to overshadow historic moments or long, dazzling careers.

We as fans live for right now. We want to see something exciting right now. It seems as though we don’t appreciate some other parts of the game, like the 15-year veterans who have been at the top level of competition for their entire career. No, once they start to lose their flash, we don’t care.

We don’t want to watch Omar Vizquel play shortstop, or Ken Griffey Jr. swing the bat, or Trevor Hoffman try to close a game, or Jim Thome make a pitch-hitting appearance. Because those aren’t exciting to us any more.

We want to see the young guy do something thrilling. Mowing down mediocre hitters with electric stuff. And that’s completely understandable. But with that, do we start to lose appreciation for some of the other parts of the game?

To me, it seems that we have. We thrive off the new, young hot-shots. And Strasburg is no doubt a hot-shot. But how long will it be before he becomes just another pitcher? And we’re hyping up some 17-year-old power-hitting catcher from Nevada who has never played higher than the junior college level. But if he comes up to the majors and hits a home run in his first game, will his bat be in the Hall of Fame?

I sure hope not. But it probably will be.

Bobby Jenks is doing his best to keep is second half ERA in double digits. After blowing yet another lead on Thursday night, his ERA after the break now stands at 10.56.

It’s weird too, because if he isn’t giving up three runs at a time, he’s been flat out dominant. Rarely does he give up a hit or even a walk just one at a time, it’s just been feast or famine.

Well, I think it’s time that a team that’s been a major league best 38-13 since June 9, and fighting for a playoff spot, started handing the ball over to someone with a little bit more consistency with the game on the line. Like, say, J.J. Putz, who has allowed just two runs since May 7. Or Matt Thornton, who has gone 18 straight appearances without giving up a run.

And after Jenks blew the game on Thursday, the typically out-spoken Ozzie Guillen was speechless.

Via Yahoo!:

“"You know what?" Guillen said before a long pause. "Ask Bobby what he wants to do. I don't know.

"I don't say we've lost confidence, but the last three times he blew the game, he gave up three or four runs.

"Right now, I don't know yet. Like I keep saying, when Bobby's the closer, our bullpen is better. But right now, I've got to wait and see what I'm going to do the next couple of days."

Over the next couple of days, it would be wise for Guillen to make a change. He has two of the most reliable bullpen arms in baseball over the past few months, and he’s doing the White Sox a disservice by throwing out Jenks, a ticking time bomb, with the game on the line.

While Thornton is a reliable and useful lefty, I think it’s going to be Putz who starts getting the save chances in Chicago. And once he gets a shot, he won’t lose it.

J.J. Putz will collect 15 saves throughout the rest of the season? FACT.

With Juan Gutierrez on the DL and Chad Qualls on a new team, it looks like Aaron Heilman is going to get another shot to close games in Arizona. And it may not be that bad of a bad gig to have.

With all the new faces, I have a sneaky feeling the DBacks are going to play decent ball down the stretch, some where close to .500. Joe Saunders, Dan Hudson, and Barry Enright have provided solid starts on the mound, and Adam LaRoche is only just starting to get his second half hot streak going.

Gutierrez was nothing great when he was healthy anyways, so with little competition in the bullpen Heilman could provide a steady source of saves.

Aaron Heilman will collect 12 saves from here on out? FACT.

In Baltimore, Mike Gonzalez has been back in action for a few weeks now, but he still hasn’t been given a save opportunity. He’s thrown eight innings and allowed two earned rungs, striking out four since coming back from the DL on July 22. New manager Buck Showalter used him for one batter in the eighth inning of a close game against the Angels on Thursday before removing him and allowing Jason Berken to finish the last two innings.

Alfredo Simon has been just dreadful since the All-Star break, posting a 7.27 ERA in eight games. I fully expected Gonzalez to take over the role once he proved he could get hitters out again, but with the managerial change it doesn’t appear that he’ll be the ninth-inning guy any time soon. No one has been good enough to deserve it, and Baltimore is a bad team anyways, so chasing saves here will leave you with nothing but a huge ERA and a headache.

Someone in the Orioles bullpen will save 8 games the rest of the season? FICTION.

Closer Quick Hits:

It appears that Joel Hanrahan is going to be the closer in Pittsburgh since Octavio Dotel departed in the trade that sent him to the Dodgers. Pirates GM Neal Huntington said that Hanrahan and Evan Meek would both have the opportunity, and that he wouldn’t lock in on one guy, but Hanrahan got the save on Tuesday and appears to have the edge. Meek is also more valuable in another role, as he can throw multiple innings.

“It’s a process of trying to choose a closer, giving both an opportunity going forward,” Huntington said of Hanrahan and Meek. “If both guys are fresh, Hanrahan closes because of experience.”

Michael Wuertz has stepped up as the new closer in Oakland, saving his fourth game of the year in a 4-3 win over the Royals on Thursday. But with Andrew Bailey due back sometime within the next week, it doesn’t look like Wuertz will get many more chances. Wuertz has been solid out of the pen, fanning about a guy per inning, and while his value will surely plummet when Bailey returns, he’s worth holding onto in deeper leagues, as Bailey has been fighting all sorts of injuries (back spasms and a rib cage strain most recently) this year.

Matt Capps just swooped in and stole Jon Rauch’s job. And the sad part is, Rauch did nothing to lose it. He’s 21 for 25 in save opportunities and has been a solid replacement for the Twins after Joe Nathan went down in the preseason. Poor Rauch, and more importantly, poor Rauch owners. You can still hang on to him in deeper leagues in case Capps falters, but his value has pretty much vanished.

Capps has been stellar with Washington this year, but the move to the AL could hurt his strikeout numbers and perhaps his performance. But as long as he continues to close games, he’ll still be a solid closer on a team that provides plenty of chances.

Drew Storen will most likely take over the ninth inning duties in Washington, beginning an era of Strasburg-to-Storen that could last for years. The two best friends might become the studs in the capital city, and I’m optimistic that Storen is going to settle in just fine. He’s been great since his call-up, fanning almost a batter per inning, and if he can lower his walk rate he should fair well as the Nats’ new closer.

Moral of the story: Storen up, Rauch down, and Capps remains the same.

Matt Capps will collect the most saves among the three? FACT.

Roy Oswalt had been on the decline for three straight years heading into this season, but a strong first half made him one of the most prized possessions at the trade deadline. He’ll now be starting every fifth day for the Philadelphia Phillies rather than the Houston Astros. The huge increase in strikeout-rate this year has been a great sign, and the 33-year-old pitcher, whose velocity is back to that of his prime years, should be in line for even more fantasy value this season..

The Phillies now have a talented staff of aces, but the two remaining years on Oswalt’s contract aren’t very promising. They did opt to drop the last year of the contract, in which Oswalt would be paid $16 million in 2012, but I still don’t like this deal for Philadelphia.

They had to part ways with J.A. Happ, though I’m not very fond of him, and a few very promising prospects. Happ has 12 walks to 9 strikeouts in his three starts, showing the command problems that scouts were worried about last season. His chance to collect wins also decreases, and I’d be seriously concerned if you were banking anything on Happ offering much help to your staff this season.

The bottom line though is that Oswalt has been fantastic this year, and there isn’t much to indicate that he won’t continue to be (unless of course his age gets to him and/or he loses his health).

Roy Oswalt will be a top-10 fantasy starter in the NL for the rest of the year, winning seven more games? FACT.

While it wasn’t the headline of the trading day, the Astros picked up Brett Wallace from Toronto in exchange for 19-year-old outfielder Anthony Gose. Gose was acquired from the Phillies earlier in the day in the Oswalt deal, and was immediately swapped for Wallace afterward.

Wallace has been roped around over the past year or so, originally growing up with the A’s farm system, getting sent to Toronto for super-prospect Michael Taylor, and now landing with the Astros. Wallace was originally a third baseman, but switched over to first base with the Blue Jays. With Lance Berkman manning first (though there is speculation that he could get dealt this year), I would guess Wallace could go back to third. And while the Astros are far from becoming a contender this year, it will be interesting how they decide to use him this season. He was hitting .301 with 24 doubles and 18 home runs in Triple-A before the deal, and was assigned to the Triple-A Round Rock following the deal.

I can’t wait for him to get the call, as he could become a solid fantasy contributor for a long time, but that likely won’t happen this year.

Brett Wallace will hit at least 6 homers for the Astros in 2010? FICTION.

Jorge Cantu will become the new first baseman for the Texas Rangers, and things couldn’t be much better for the 29-year-old. The Rangers are one of the best offensive teams at home, while the Marlins are among the worst. And Cantu has still knocked in 54 runs this season with the fish. Joining Texas should be a solid fit for him, and he’ll replace Chris Davis as the every day first baseman.

Davis obviously loses a ton of value here, as his playing time becomes limited. But I can’t help but think Cantu could start hitting home runs at a more frequent pace. He did crank 29 homers two years ago before slipping to 16 last season, and Arlington might be the perfect place for him to rediscover his swing.
Jorge Cantu will hit at least 10 homers and drive in at least 30 runs for the Rangers this year? FACT.

It’s nice to finally see the Padres making acquisitions at the deadline, rather than dishing their players. They received Miguel Tejada from the Orioles, and he’ll likely become the every day third baseman as Chase Headley moves back to left field.

Tejada hasn’t been great this season, and a move to Petco Park certainly won’t help his power numbers. His doubles are down substantially from last season, and his .269 batting average isn’t a whole lot to be excited about.

Miguel Tejada will hit at least 5 homers and bat at least .275 for the Padres this year? FICTION.

Alex Rodriguez hit his 599^th career home run on Thursday night, putting him just one away from being the sixth player ever to hit 600 in a career (joining Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, Babe Ruth, Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr. and Sammy Sosa).

It would be a milestone for any player, something us as fans should really appreciate. But to me this is just a big reminder that we don’t have a true home run king in baseball. And the person who most likely will catch him (A-Rod would have to hit about 35 a year for the next five years, at age 40) is carrying the same stamp Bonds brought to the table with his 762 record mark:

VOID: STEROIDS.

Once Rodriguez admitted his usage of performance enhancing drugs, I lost all faith in any of our top home run hitters of the past decade. Who was using? There are still 100-plus names on a list of failed drug tests, and you can surely bet that some of baseball’s top players are on it. The biggest problem for us is that we don’t know who those people are. And it just makes us question every player.

Albert Pujols? No, he couldn’t have used them. But could he have?

You can say the same thing for everyone who has been in the league since drug testing began in 2004.

And it’s all a shame.

Joining a list of legends (well, maybe Sammy Sosa isn’t a legend, but he was still good), Alex Rodriguez will enter a world that only some of the game’s best have been. And while his numbers on paper may prove that he deserves to be there, all I can ever think of attached to his name is a cheater.

And the worse part is, he wants it so bad. He claims he doesn’t care about his own stats any longer, even though he’s openly admitted to keeping a close eye on them in the past, but you know he does.

"There's really no comparison of a team accomplishment to a personal accomplishment,” Rodriguez told The Star Ledger. “Those are great and nice but I have a much better perspective now. ... Early in my career, I loved to win but it was about accumulating numbers and hoping you got to the postseason. Now, it's about one goal (winning the World Series) and along the way you hope to get big homers and drive in runs to help us win.”

It’s a typical ARod answer. It sounds so scripted. It’s all about team effort; I just go out there and try to give 100 percent every day. Blah, blah, blah…

The man has been running away from the media skeptics since he was 18 years old. I want to feel bad for him, but how can you feel bad for a guy who has been given it all? He’s gotten the fame, the money, the women, and the glory. He’ll only continue to get more as he starts breaking records, and it’s truly painful to watch.

Bonds did steroids, and now we have a big asterisk next to his name in the MLB Hall of Fame. ARod will likely over-take the record, and it hurts to think about. His 600^th home run couldn’t come soon enough. Let’s get it over with and try to move on, try to find our new, young favorite player. A player who has grown up in a system where strong drug testing has always been in place. A player who couldn’t be using steroids.

Or could he?

The trade news came through: Cliff Lee had been shipped to the Texas Rangers, and Justin Smoak was the center piece the Mariners got in return.

And all I could do was shed a few tears, being owners of both players in a few leagues I’m in.

Smoak leaves the third highest scoring team in the major leagues (445 runs) with the best home ball park in terms of batting average and home runs. He’ll arrive in Seattle, the lowest scoring team in the American League (291 runs), with the lowest batting average (.238), and a team that has hit just 55 home runs in 85 games.

It doesn’t look pretty folks. And it doesn’t get much better on the other end.

Lee has dominated in Seattle. He’s thrown 103.2 innings there already, including five complete games, with a ridiculous 89:6 strikeout-to-walk ratio and just five homers allowed. I was praying for a move to the NL, where his strikeout-per-nine jumped when he arrived there last year.

And now he’ll be pitching in Arlington, where he owns a lifetime ERA of 7.62, the highest ERA of any park he’s pitched in more than once.

There’s no doubt he’ll still be a great pitcher. And now he’ll get to face the Mariners a few more times in place of the Rangers. But it will be tough to expect similar numbers that he’s put up in the first half, and the constant moving he’s done over the past 12 months may finally take its toll.

Cliff Lee will have an ERA under 3.00 in Texas? FICTION.

Justin Smoak will hit 10 second half home runs? FICTION.

When baseball starts up again for the Nationals on Friday, July 17, Steven Strasburg will be taking his turn on the mound. It will be his eighth start for Washington this year, and he’ll be pitching his 99^th inning of the season (42.2 in the majors, 55.1 in the minors).

And with a firm 160-inning limit for the youngster, he’ll have just 60 innings to throw for the rest of the year. Nationals’ management ensures that they are doing everything they can to stay in the playoff race, but in all likelihood the Nats will be on the outside looking in by mid-August, and any idea of saving Strasburg for the playoffs will be put to rest.

The likely scenario for him then is a schedule that allows him extra days rest through the beginning of September. Averaging about 6 innings per start, he’ll have about 10 starts to make before his limit is reached. And since the Nats will want to keep selling tickets, they’ll keep those starts as spread out as possible.

But the question still remains in head-to-head leagues: Will Strasburg be around for fantasy playoffs? Probably not.

Unless Washington somehow lands in contention, Strasburg will most likely be shut down by the beginning or middle of September, cutting his fantasy season short on most accounts.

If you’ll have a solid spot in the playoffs locked up and feel comfortable trading him away, I’d certainly do it. Unless you know you absolutely need him to simply make the playoffs, his value his high enough where you should be able to pull in a solid player or two in return. And the earlier you trade him of course, the more value you’ll get. I’m going to let him throw two or three more times, and after his next gem, the trade offers will start to fly.

Strasburg will still be pitching in mid-September? FICTION.

No team has hit for a better average or more home runs in their home ballpark than the Texas Rangers. And they’ve done it all while playing arguably the worst cadre of catchers in the majors. Taylor Teagarden (.037 AVG), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (.200), Max Ramirez (.217), and Matt Treanor (.237) have combined to form a hole in the bottom of their lineup, but that’s all about to change with the recent acquisition of Bengie Molina.

Molina has been no stud himself this season, hitting just .257 with 3 home runs, but his 14:19 walk to strikeout ratio is far better than any previous year. And a consistent 15-20 homers with a knack of driving in runs makes him an ideal fit in Arlington. A change of scenery could be just what he needs, and the American League may play a nice home as Molina makes his way back to the league he first started in.

Molina will hit 14 home runs and drive in 45 for the Rangers? FACT.

Madison Bumgarner made his 2010 debut for the Giants last Saturday and there were a few things to take out of that game. He gave up four runs in the first two innings, allowing two Red Sox home runs that did all the damage. But after that, he was settled in, retiring the next 16 of 17 batters over seven innings, striking out five.

Bumgarner was struggling with velocity in the beginning of the season, barely touching the high 80s with his fastball. But he sat around 90 on Saturday and looked sharp once he settled.

He’s never been much of a strikeout pitcher, but he gets the job done (7-1, 3.16 ERA, 59 K, 82.2 IP in Triple-A). He may be ready to be a serviceable starter for the Giants, but I don’t think he’s ready to be a starter for fantasy purposes just yet. He’s worth owning in standard leagues, maybe using as a spot-starter here and there, but the Bumgarner mania may have to wait another year or two.

An ERA below 4.00 and 75 strikeouts? FICTION.

Pedro Alvarez completed his first road trip as a major leaguer, striking out 15 times in 30 at bats. It wasn’t pretty, but to be expected with these young power hitters. There always seems to be a bit of a learning curve with this type, and while many rushed to the waiver wire upon Alvarez’s call-up, they may want to wait until next year to start plugging him into an every-day lineup.

He struckout just over once per game in Triple-A this year as well, and while he struggled to hit for power early in the year, he still managed to hit 13 home runs in 66 games. He’s worth stashing in keeper formats, and even in deeper mixed leagues right now, but a little bit of power and a whole lot of frustration may be in store.

Alvarez will hit 12 HR with a .250 AVG in 2010? FICTION.

Jair Jurrjens was activated from the DL Wednesday after a hamstring injury kept him out of action since late April. He looked good in his return, throwing 86 pitches, 56 of them for strikes, as he shut down the Nationals over five innings (5 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 6 K).

Control has always been the issue with Jurrjens, and while we watched him put it all together in a solid season for the Braves last year (14-10, 2.60 ERA, 152 K, 75 BB), his walk rate was still a red flag. He struggled in a few starts at Triple-A before coming back, but he’s been forgotten about after his slow start to the year and an ERA over six. Look for him to return to his regular self, that of 2008, not 2009 where his xFIP was 4.34 and a BABIP of .273 kept his ratios lower than they should have been.

An ERA under 3.50 and a WHIP under 1.30 the rest of the way? FICTION.

While Erik Bedard is due back to the Seattle Mariners’ rotation sometime next week, betting on what his production will be is a crapshoot.

I’ve read plenty of encouraging reports on his recovery from shoulder inflammation, but you never know with Bedard. He had a setback recently, and was scheduled to pitch for Triple-A Tacoma on Thursday night.

The Mariners say he’s close, and they’re trying to stretch him out so he can throw 100 pitches in his return. He’s proven to be a dominant starter when he’s healthy, but there are a lot of big IFs with his body. Anyone’s guess is as good as mine, but I think his first start or two will be a big indication of what’s to come.

Bedard will fan 100 guys this season? FICTION.

Jason Mastrodonato is a student at Northeastern University and a sports reporter for The Boston Globe. He earned a second place finish in the FantasyPros911.com Expert League last season. He can be heard weekly on the Fantasy Roundtable Radio Show or you can follow him on Twitter, @JMastrodonato.

How many people have taken notice that Julio Borbon is hitting .298? Borbon has lit it up in June, hitting 29-for-68 for a .426 clip, with four doubles, two triples, and two homers. Sadly, he’s 1-for-4 in base-stealing attempts during the month, which is the main reason he was drafted so highly this year.

And he's been caught six times to his eight steals on the year, which is a concern. But the speed is still there, so when Ron Washington thinks he needs second base, Borbon will run. I just don’t think we’ll see him hit those big totals that were expected him before the season.

The good news of course, is that he’s hitting again. And it’s not a fluke; the fluke was that he wasn’t hitting in the beginning of the year. A career .310 hitter in the minors, Borbon doesn’t strike out much, and his tremendous speed allows him to carry a higher batting average on balls in play (BABIP) than most.

He’s still hitting at the bottom of the order, but if he keeps hitting like this, a change is possible. Either way, Texas is putting up runs, and Borbon will surely be in the middle of that.

Julio Borbon will finish the year with a .300 batting average and 30 steals: FACT

How good is Cliff Lee? I mean really, this is getting ridiculous. But even more ridiculous is that he’s still not considered a top-flight pitcher by some. According to Yahoo’s rankings, he’s the fifth best starting pitcher in fantasy baseball, and he’s thrown 20-30 innings less than anyone in the top-10.

His insane 76:4 strikeout:walk ratio makes him a man amongst boys. After two complete-game efforts in a row, it’s tough not to take notice. The interesting thing to watch is where he ends up at the trade deadline. He’s been linked to a handful of teams, but if he goes back to the National League, does he carry even more value? Probably, as he exhibited last year, when his K/9 jumped once he got to Philadelphia.

I just dished Carlos Pena, Rickie Weeks, and Kevin Gregg for him in a 5x5 roto league, a highway robbery. But it just goes to show you, some aren’t buying his great season so far. So make some offers while you can, while some owners may feel that they’re selling high, but I think the sky is even higher.

Cliff Lee will finish the year a top-5 fantasy starter: FACT

It’s been a pretty dreadful year for Jake Peavy by most people’s standards. His ERA stands at 5.07 and he’s already allowed 12 home runs in 14 starts. But if you look a bit deeper, he really hasn’t been that bad. He’s fanned 77 in 92.1 innings, walked 29, and has a 1.26 WHIP. It’s not as good as we expect from Peavy, but it’s not too bad either.

He’s turned in three consecutive quality starts, and while his shoulder has been bothering him, he didn’t show it in his complete game shutout of the Nationals last week. He’ll stop doing bullpen sessions in between starts now to get maximum rest, and while his nagging injury is a bit concerning, he’s got some upside that many owners have already bailed on.

Remember, he’s still Jake Peavy. He’s shown before that he’s a top-notch starting pitcher, and while he’s struggled in his bout with AL opponents initially, if he can stay healthy, he can return to at least close to his old form.

Jake Peavy will finish with an ERA below 4.00 and 160 strikeouts: FACT

Jason Mastrodonato is a student at Northeastern University and a sports reporter for The Boston Globe. He earned a second place finish in the FantasyPros911.com Expert League last season. He can be heard weekly on the Fantasy Roundtable Radio Show or you can follow him on Twitter, @JMastrodonato.

In his Friday column, Democrat and Chronicle writer Bob Matthews suggested that Steven Strasburg should be an MLB All-Star.

Matthews's argument centered around how Strasburg is the hottest thing in baseball right now. He also said that Strasburg has some of the best stuff, in terms of pitch quality, in the National League.

The column goes on to suggest that Strasburg would boost TV ratings for the All-Star game, and that he would help the NL in its quest to win the game for the first time since 1996, earning home field advantage in the World Series.

And if the MLB doesn’t think Strasburg should be an all-star this year, Matthews writes, we should let the fans decide.

I simply couldn’t disagree more.

The fans have no right deciding who starts the All-Star game. Maybe we could let them vote on a few players to get in, fan favorites of sorts, but it’s been clear in the past that this has become a popularity contest. Sure it makes for better TV, more people will watch it if they voted who gets to play in it, and I suppose that means the MLB makes more money. But there are other ways to let the fans be involved.

As it stands in the polls right now, Miguel Cabrera and his major league-leading 19 homers and 59 RBI won’t start for the AL. He’s not even second on the list of first basemen (Justin Morneau and Mark Teixeira appear ahead of him). Alex Rios isn’t in the top-15 outfielders. The incredible first half performances of Vernon Wells and Magglio Ordonez will go unnoticed. And Placido Polanco will be the starting third baseman for the NL.

But regardless of whether or not the fans would vote Strasburg an All-Star, which they probably would, the real question is whether or not he deserves to be one.

Through Friday, he had started three games for the Nationals. He’s done great in them, no doubt about it, though he’s hardly been challenged. If the Nats’ schedule is any indicator, Strasburg will start four more times before the All-Star game. There’s a chance he pitches 50 innings, and he’s well on his way to 70 or more strikeouts in those innings (32 through three games).

But his stats and what he’s done for his team don’t even match up against the top-10 pitchers in the NL. Compared to the most dominant pitchers in the league with similar innings totals, mostly relievers, he’s right on par. How about Carlos Marmol, who has racked up 56 Ks in just over 30 innings? Francisco Rodriguez has been great.

And even starting pitchers who haven’t pitched the whole year, like Ted Lilly, deserve it over Strasburg.

When you look at the top of the list in the NL, Strasburg’s numbers simply won’t match up with the rest of the group. Sure his K/9, ERA, and WHIP may look great, but he hasn’t thrown enough innings, and he hasn’t done enough to really help his team in the standings quite yet.

In order of ERA:

Ubaldo Jimenez (13-1, 88 Ks, 1.15 ERA, 1.00 WHIP)

Jaime Garcia (6-3, 66 Ks, 1.59 ERA, 1.24 WHIP)

Josh Johnson (7-2, 89 Ks, 1.86 ERA, 1.00 WHIP)

Steven Strasburg (2-0, 32 Ks, 1.86 ERA, 0.78 WHIP)

Matt Cain (6-4, 65 Ks, 2.05 ERA, 1.02 WHIP)

Roy Halladay (8-5, 90 Ks, 2.36 ERA, 1.06 WHIP)

Mike Pelfrey (9-1, 59 Ks, 2.39 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)

Adam Wainwright (9-4, 97 Ks, 2.41 ERA, 1.02 WHIP)

Chris Carpenter (7-1, 83 Ks, 2.66 ERA, 1.12 WHIP)

Yovani Gallardo (6-3, 94 Ks, 2.66 ERA, 1.31 WHIP)

Tim Lincecum (7-2, 106 Ks, 3.11 ERA, 1.22 WHIP)

The list goes on of guys who deserve it ahead of Strasburg, including top relievers.

I’m not trying to take away anything from what he’s done in his first three starts, which have been unbelievably good. But to say he deserves to be an All-Star at this juncture is just silly. The short list above is a group of guys who have gone out every fifth day for their team from the beginning of the year (besides missing a start or two), and they’ve pitched wonderfully.

Strasburg hasn’t even tossed 20 innings yet, and while they’ve been great innings, it’s not enough to be on the hill with the likes of Ubaldo, Halladay, and Josh Johnson.

If things go as planned – and figuring he doesn’t take a Mark Prior turn for the worst – Strasburg will be pitching in the mid-July classic for years to come. There’s no reason to rush him into it now and take the place of these well-deserving candidates.

Final Verdict: FICTION

On a side note…

In terms of what Strasburg has done for fantasy owners so far this year, he’s simply been remarkable. And here’s the thing that strikes me most:

In his three starts, he’s thrown 7 innings, 94 pitches; 5.1 innings, 95 pitches; and 7 innings, 85 pitches. He’s fanned 32 guys.

Aside from the second game, he’s managed to pitch deep into ball games without riding up his pitch count. With a lot of young guys, you always see the 5, maybe 6-inning performances where they toss over 100 pitches, striking out plenty on the way, but usually walking a handful as well. In two of three games, Strasburg hasn’t.

We saw it with David Price last year, we saw it with Clayton Kershaw, we still see it with Rich Harden. The high-strikeout guys often don’t pitch deep into games, cranking their pitch counts up early. But Strasburg has exhibited excellent control of his pitches, even his breaking pitches, which if he can continue, should keep his numbers this good for the majority of the season.

And even more importantly, he may be able to pitch more innings than initially expected. The Nats have been diligent in tracking his innings all year, and there are rumors that he’s on a 100-inning limit in the majors this season per his contract. But if he continues pitching this well, keeping his pitch count low – and who knows, the Nationals could even be in contention in August – they may have no choice but to keep throwing him out there.

So for those of us who own him in fantasy, we could still have him around deep into our postseason in head-to-head leagues, or for the home stretch in roto leagues.

And if you haven’t watched him pitch yet, you’re surely missing out.

Jason Mastrodonato is a student at Northeastern University and a sports reporter for The Boston Globe. He earned a second place finish in the FantasyPros911.com Expert League last season. He can be heard weekly on the Fantasy Roundtable Radio Show or you can follow him on Twitter, @JMastrodonato.

If you’re a baseball fan, you probably have some sort of allegiance to either the AL or the NL. Maybe your favorite team is in the AL, or you love the NL ball parks, or you’re a fan of good pitching, or love the DH position, or just live on the west coast. No matter what pulls you in, chances are you favor one or the other.

I’m an AL guy. I live on the east coast and typically just find AL ball more exciting.

So it’s a perfect fit. Here’s the inaugural AL Notebook:

Hank Blalock probably fell off your radar a long time ago. Maybe it was his signing with the Rays and subsequent demotion to the minor leagues. But the man has been killing the ball in Triple-A Durham. In 101 at bats, he’s leading the team with a .366 batting average. With four homers and 10 walks to 17 strikeouts, Blalock has been itching to crawl out of the minors for a while now.

He has a clause in his contract that allows him to opt out and become a free agent, and Scott Boras said that Blalock would execute it if he wasn’t promoted within the week. Even though Pat Burrell is struggling as the DH, playing time may still be slim for Blalock even if he does get pulled up.

Rumor has it that the Mariners are one likely landing spot for him, but he has proved that he can still hit and should field at least a few offers. He’s owned in most AL only leagues but if he’s out there, he’s absolutely worth grabbing. As long as he remains healthy, he should be able to find a home and get a few starts per week. Could be a cheap source of power if you’re looking.

The cries in Cleveland keep coming as Indians fans have to painfully watch Lou Marson and Mike Redmond continue to get at bats from the catcher position. Collectively they’ve scored 12 runs and have 4 RBIs, while Marson is hitting .191 and Redmond smacks a cool .250.

And where is Carlos Santana? He’s hitting .314 in Triple-A Columbus with five home runs and 25 RBIs in 102 at bats. Even better, Santana has walked 22 times to just 20 strikeouts. There’s always some concern with catchers making their way to the majors (see Matt Wieters) since they also have to spend a good amount of time developing a relationship with the pitching staff. But Santana’s walk to strikeout ratio is what has me thinking good things are coming. At the very latest, he should be up by early June and could bang out 15 homers and a respectable batting average from a slim position.

With all of this chaos at the back end of the Chicago White Sox bullpen, Sergio Santos hasn’t garnered a whole lot of attention in many leagues. The converted shortstop is in just his second year on the mound, but has found a lot of success using his powerful fastball.

Santos has struggled with command since making the transition, but he’s been able to strike people out on a consistent basis. He fanned 20 in 14 innings at the Arizona Fall League last year, but walked 10 and held a 6.00 ERA.

Santos has allowed just a single run in the majors though, with 17 Ks and 5 BBs in 13.1 innings. While his ERA will probably start to rise once major league hitters figure out how to approach this kid, a .125 batting average against can’t be ignored. He could even pawn a few saves as Ozzie Guillen reconfigures his bullpen with the struggles of Bobby Jenks.

Since Kelly Shoppach found himself on the DL with right knee surgery, John Jaso has filled in quite nicely at the catcher position for the Rays. So nicely that he’s taken the starting job from Dioner Navarro. Jaso has put together an insane 11:2 BB:K ratio as he’s hit .350 with 12 RBIs in 40 at bats.

A 26-year-old lefty, Jaso has been a solid hitter in the minor leagues, collecting a .290 batting average over his seven-year career with nearly an even walk-to-strikeout rate. He doesn’t have a whole lot of power, but Joe Madden has played him frequently since the call up, even against left-handers with the switch-hitting Navarro on the bench. As long as he’s getting playing time, he’s a decent option.

Quick Hits:

We all laughed when Ozzie Guillen said Alex Rios could steal 50 bases this year… but he’s already got 11, and a .322 batting average with six homers. Could this finally be his year? Maybe, but he won’t sustain at this rate much longer. It’s probably fair to look for 20 HRs, 35 SBs and somewhere around a .285 average, which would still be a fantastic year.

Derek Holland made his highly-anticipated 2010 debut for the Rangers, hurling six strong innings of shutout ball and striking out seven. Holland collected 37 Ks in 38.2 innings at Triple-A Oklahoma City with a 0.93 ERA. He’s always had great stuff and is definitely worth an add in all formats.

Victor Martinez is hitting .242 and Jason Varitek has six home runs with a .342 average. While this craziness is sure to end soon, Varitek is definitely worth rostering in deeper formats. And should we find out that VMart is hurting, he could provide a little bit of pop.

With Brandon Wood striking out at Chris Davis-like frequency, Kevin Frandsen is getting some playing time at third base for the Angels. Maicer Izturis is on the DL with right shoulder inflammation and could be out for a little while, paving the way for Frandsen to steal some at bats.

Corey Paterson played left field and led off for the Orioles on Wednesday night. While his continued failure in the bigs has been well-documented, it seems as though he’ll get some playing time and could spit out of his two-week periods where he actually hits for a decent average.

Jason Mastrodonato is a student at Northeastern University and a sports reporter for The Boston Globe. He earned a second place finish in the FantasyPros911.com Expert League last season. He can be heard weekly on the Fantasy Roundtable Radio Show or you can follow him on Twitter, @JMastrodonato.