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Impact Prospects for 2013: The Second Basemen |
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The Prospector
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Written by Rob Leibowitz
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Thursday, 31 January 2013 22:54 |
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Jedd Gyorko is really a third basemen. But if he wants to play in the Majors for the Padres, a shift to second base will be necessary and thus his inclusion in our list of potential impact prospects at second base for 2013!
Heading into last season I had concerns regarding his power potential given that the righty stands just 5’10 . Well, Gyorko has now produced consecutive 25 and 30 home run outputs. The former second round pick is pretty well disciplined, makes consistent hard contact, but is not the fastest of runners, so there’s potential here as a .280 to .300 20 to 25 HR guy in the Majors and a possibility he could push for the starting job in the spring.
Jonathan Schoop’s 2012 outwardly was not all that impressive with a .245 14 HR performance in Double-A. Now keep in mind that he did not turn 21 until after the season. Schoop’s best tool is his power, projecting possibly as a 20+ HR per season type and with some experience, perhaps making him a .270s hitter. Schoop’s long-term position is part of the question as he not strongly suited for shortstop and is not particularly fast, so it remains to be seen whether he’ll be a second or third basemen long term. For now, his bat profiles well at second. Schoop could repeat Double-A or advance to Triple-A which would put him in line for a mid to late season call-up depending on Brian Roberts’ health.
Cord Phelps, 26, barely retains his rookie status. However, the righty has had three consecutively solid seasons for the Indians at Triple-A, yet has barely received an extended look in the Majors. The switch hitter is highly disciplined, can play multiple infield positions, and has mid-teens power potential. Second base is probably Phelps’ best position, but the best opportunity may lie at third should Lonnie Chisenhall continue to be unimpressive.
Jemile Weeks failed to take the A’s second base job and run away with it. So now, Rickie’s younger brother will have to fend off Grant Green this spring. Green may not have Weeks’ plate discipline skills, but does have a bat that is a good fit for second base. A righty, Green has mid-teens home run power and did make some strong improvements to his contact in 2012. His upside is a.280 to .290 with 12 to 17 HR's a year. In other words Green is a possible starter, but unlikely a star player.
Robinson Cano is well entrenched as the Yankees’ second basemen. However, Corban Joseph has nothing left to prove in the minors and could see a promotion to a utility role. The 24-year old is an exceptionally well disciplined hitter with high single digits to low-teens power skills. The lefty falls well into the Cord Phelps class of player who needs an extended chance, but may need a new organization in order to even receive that opportunity.
The Mariners are still fairly committed to keeping Dustin Ackley as their starting second basemen. However, given the middle infield depth in this organization, this is a make or break year for Ackley. Nick Franklin will soon push Brendan Ryan aside at shortstop while Stefen Romero and Brad Miller will pushing their way to the upper minors. All three players are probably not at their ideal positions with Romero perhaps being better suited to third and both Franklin and Miller best suited to second. While for now, Romero is the only one of the bunch actually being used at this position; the second basemen of the bunch. The 6’3” righty hit 23 homers between two levels while showing an ability to make consistent contact and reminds me a bit of former Mariner, Jose Lopez as an aggressive hitter with power, but with question marks surrounding the rest of his game. Still, this is a player who could end up hitting .280 20+ HR at the MLB level and must be watched.
Henry Rodriguez should see some action with the Reds in 2013, but probably in a utility role with sleeper potential. The switch-hitter is a very aggressive contact hitter with doubles power and double-digits steals potential.
Former first round pick Kolten Wong is inching his way to the Majors and in 2013 the lefty will advance to Triple-A while focused on a mid-season call-up. Wong is a fundamentally strong player who plays solid defense at second and good base stealing technique despite average speed. At the plate he is aggressive, but actually controls the strike zone quite well, making contact well over 80% of the time and possessing gap power and high single digits home run potential. Wong is not going to be a star, but could be a .270's to .280's hitter who may in some years manage double digit results in HR's and steals.
Scooter Gennett, like Kolten Wong, will advance to Triple-A with an eye on a call-up. Unfortunately, Rickie Weeks is a more significant obstacle than Kolten Wong’s Daniel Descalso. Still, Weeks is a weak defensive player who could be moved to the outfield. Like Wong, Gennett makes very consistent contact and is a smart baserunner with gap power. However, Gennett is not quite as disciplined a hitter as Wong. It will be interesting to see which of the two actually ends up a starter in the long run and if both, which ends up superior. I have a sneaking suspicion Gennett actually ends up a utility player given his OBP skill shortcomings.
To Review:
Possible MLB Phase/Auction Selections:
Jedd, Gyorko, Grant Green
Possible Minor League Draft Phase Selections:
Jonathan Schoop, Stefen Romero, Kolten Wong, Scooter Gennett
Possible In-Season Pick-Ups:
Cord Phelps, Joseph Corban, Henry Rodriguez
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Last Updated on Saturday, 02 February 2013 10:49 |
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Impact Prospects for 2013: The First Basemen |
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The Prospector
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Written by Rob Leibowitz
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Friday, 25 January 2013 00:00 |
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This week we continue our look at the Impact Prospects for 2013 with an examination of the first base candidates.
While Jonathan Singleton’s suspension for marijuana use is disappointing and will delay his ascension to the Majors, I would not let it deter you at all from selecting the Astros' future first-sacker. The lefty really tapped into his power potential in 2012 with 21 dingers while continuing to show an advanced approach at the plate. And it was all done as a 20-year-old in Double-A. When the suspension is served, he’ll begin at Triple-A and could be up mid to late season depending on his progress and the production from Houston’s first base stop gaps.
The Pirates are entering 2013 with a possible platoon of on-base challenged Garrett Jones and 2012 disappointment Gaby Sanchez. While this platoon could end up being quite productive for the Buccos, journeyman Clint Robinson should not be ignored. The soon-to-be 28-year-old has mid-teens to twenty HR per season power and an advanced plate approach that should allow him to get on base and hit in the .270 to .280 range. The issue is opportunity. The most likely scenario has Robinson spending most of 2013 in Triple-A as roster filler.
Todd Helton is still the Rockies’ first baseman. However, the 39-year-old managed just 283 plate appearances in 2012 and is clearly in the twilight of his career. While Tyler Colvin might get the first opportunity to replace and/or platoon with Helton, Ryan Wheeler may be the name to watch. A third baseman, Wheeler’s path to the Majors will be through 1B given Nolan Arenado is also a Rockie. Wheeler is not a future star but could be a regular given modest plate discipline, a left-handed bat with consistent contact-making skills, and high-teens to low-twenties homer potential.
The Marlins may be without Logan Morrison to begin the season. Enter journeyman Joe Mahoney. The former Oriole is no great offensive force but may be a passable fill-in for NL-only leaguers. The lefty makes consistent contact but is not a huge threat in the power game, possessing only low to mid-teens home run potential.
Corey Hart could miss the first 3 to 4 months of the season. This provides an opportunity not only for Mat Gamel, who will get first crack at playing first base for the Brewers, but potentially for Hunter Morris too. Should Gamel be unable to rise to the challenge, the job could fall to the 24-year-old. A left-handed hitter, Morris is coming off of a 28-HR performance in Double-A where he batted .303/.356/.563. However, Morris is a rather aggressive hitter who may be overmatched against MLB pitching, lefties in particular. Still, he has some interesting potential as a platoon player or average regular.
Matt Adams has a MLB ready bat but no place to play. The 24-year-old has mid to upper twenties home run power and a good track record for making contact that could help him develop into at least a .260s hitter, if not better, in the Majors. Defensively, Adams is best suited for first base, where he is currently blocked by Allen Craig. An injury may have to happen for opportunity to occur.
Darin Ruf enjoyed a breakout season that included 41 homers between Double-A and the Majors in 2012. The 26-year-old has legitimate 20+ home run potential and a disciplined, hard-contact approach. The problem is positional. Ruf is a below average defender everywhere he plays, but has at least seen some time in left field and could push for playing time there should Domonic Brown fail to lay down a strong claim.
Chris McGuiness was selected by the Indians from the Rangers’ organization in the Rule-5 draft and must be kept on the MLB roster for the 2013 season or be offered back to the Rangers. The Indians do indeed have an opening at DH and McGuiness will receive an opportunity to lay claim to it. The 24-year-old has legitimate 20+ HR power and a well-disciplined approach that let him hit 23 homers in Double-A in 2012. He profiles as a .260s hitter at the MLB level.
The Astros snagged Nate Freiman from the Padres in the Rule-5 draft and are an organization in need of offense, especially with the suspension of Jonathan Singleton. A former 8th round pick, Freiman brings good contact making skills and 20+ HR potential. He could be a .270s or better hitter at the MLB level. He’ll compete against Brett Wallace and Carlos Pena for playing time but could end up the odd man out.
To Review:
Possible MLB Phase/Auction Selections:
Joe Mahoney, Chris McGuiness, Nate Freiman
Possible Minor League Draft Phase Selections:
Jonathan Singleton, Darin Ruf, Ryan Wheeler, Matt Adams, Hunter Morris
Possible In-Season Pick-Ups:
Clint Robinson
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Last Updated on Friday, 25 January 2013 08:23 |
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Impact Prospects for 2013: The Catchers |
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The Prospector
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Written by Rob Leibowitz
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Friday, 18 January 2013 00:00 |
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That time of year has come again. It is mid-January and now that all of (or most of anyway) the holiday goodies have been digested, it’s time to start ingesting draft preparation content!
For those new to this series, my definition of “impact” may be different than others. By impact I mean primarily, “what are the odds they will play in the Majors and how much.” How good are they? Well that’s what the rest of the article is about.
Why this focus? This is elementary of course for re-draft leaguers whose prospect context is only that of a single season. For keeper leaguers (particularly auction-style), I believe focusing on players who are likely to get the call in 2013 is an important mindset for your taxi-squad or minor league draft. If you are in it for 2013, a similar mindset to a re-draft leaguer is necessary. This is beneficial for two reasons. Either (A) you draft a player with the intention that he will contribute this season and vault into your lineup at a low price (particularly if your league utilizes a cap) and provide needed stats or (B) you use that player for leveraging veterans from other players.
The “Impact Prospects” are the most attractive targets for dumping teams as they look towards contending the following season. “Impact Prospects” provide a statistical need at a low price, allowing for auction leaguers to redistribute their budget with great flexibility, opening up a number of strategic options whether they throw all their eggs into offense, or pitching, a stars and scrubs strategy, or whatever else they choose.
There is an exception, of course, to selecting just players who will impact 2013. And that is the uber-prospects that not only have the tools but have high-level skills that suggest they will be potential All-Stars. Of course, these types of players should be drafted regardless of whether they will actually play in the upcoming season.
And now, the Catchers for 2013!
The Marlins picked up Rob Brantly in the Anibal Sanchez deal and now have him penciled in as their #1 catcher. The 23-year-old is perhaps most comparable to fellow lefty, Josh Thole. The lefty has a fairly disciplined bat and makes consistent contact but is a single-digits HR type without a high ceiling. I recommend him as an end-game, #2 catcher option who could out-earn his projection depending on how well his batting average skills hold up over the course of an entire season.
Travis D'Arnaud gives the Mets the best young catcher they’ve had in their minors since Todd Hundley. D’Arnaud combines a quick, short stroke and legitimate 20+ HR power. Given an aggressive approach and “catcher speed”, there could be quite a variance in the batting average department on a year to year basis. For now, the safest best is to expect a .260 mark and treat anything better as gravy. The righty could start 2013 as the Mets’ starter or spend the first half of the season in Triple-A.
Jason Hagerty makes this article thanks to the suspension of Yasmani Grandal, who will miss the first 50 games of the MLB season. The former fifth round pick combines a fairly good understanding of the strike zone with double-digit home run potential. The switch-hitter's shortcomings, however, are on the defensive side of the ball and this could regulate him to being an organizational player.
Chris Herrmann earned a cup of coffee with the Twins last season and could challenge Drew Butera for the backup catching gig this spring. Butera may have a leg up in the defensive department, but Herrmann is at least average defensively and is strong armed. Being a lefty with gap power and a very solid plate approach could put Herrmann over the top. An interesting sleeper should anything happen to Joe Mauer.
The Phillies have two catching prospects in their upper Minors in Sebastian Valle and Tommy Joseph. The former, Valle, was the reason the Phillies traded D’Arnaud as part of the package for Roy Halladay. Right now, it looks like the wrong decision. Valle has good raw power and defensive chops but is ultra-aggressive at the plate. This became increasingly apparent at both Double-A and Triple-A and it's likely he will be made mincemeat of in the Majors absent a complete plate approach turnaround. 21-year-old Tommy Joseph could end up spending a second season in Double-A or could earn a promotion to Triple-A, though that depends a lot on whether or not the former second-round pick stays behind the plate. Joseph is not in Valle’s class defensively but could be adequate in the long run. At the plate, the righty has greater raw power than Valle, a slightly less aggressive approach and has shown better signs of making contact. While both players could certainly make the Majors as soon as this season, I suspect neither may end up starters for the Phillies.
The White Sox’s Josh Phegley has no proven starter in front of him at the MLB level which gives him a chance to make it. The former supplemental first- round pick was a slugger in college who earned mixed reviews for his defense and bat speed. Health concerns have slowed him down and the righty has yet to reach double digits in any minor league season. He's probably an organizational player, but there may be opportunities given the Sox lack of catching depth.
Austin Romine is likely to start 2013 in Triple-A with Chris Stewart and Francisco Cervelli at the MLB level. Romine is not a high-ceiling player but is a solid defensive player with fair plate discipline skills, an ability to make contact and gap power. There may be enough here to make the former second-round pick a low-end starter, though he probably profiles better as a backup.
The Mariners are blessed with catching depth. Jesus Montero will open 2013 as the starting catcher and for a 22-year old, actually held his own quite well, already translating some power and contact skills, though his plate discipline lagged behind. Defensively, Montero is adequate at best though and it is only a matter of time before he is forced to shift positions, particularly with 2012 third overall pick Mike Zunino hot on his heels.
Zunino is a superior defensive catcher to Montero and that skill is greatest factor that will get him to the Majors. The righty and so far in the lower minors has shown fairly advanced plate discipline and contact-making skills. The righty also showed above-average power and projects long-term to be a 20+ HR hitter as compared to Montero who could still be an upper twenties or better HR hitter at his peak. Keep in mind that Zunino is a fairly slow runner, so even with his power and contact-making skills, hitting for average is not a given. Just ask Matt Wieters. It will be interesting to see how his skills translate to the upper minors.
It is possible that Zunino could begin 2013 in Triple-A, but they can afford to take it slow with him given Montero’s presence and the fact that Zunino has just 57 plate appearances at the Double-A level and will turn 22 just before the start of the season. Barring injury to Montero, a post All-Star break call-up at earliest seems most likely.
To Review:
Possible MLB Phase Draft/Auction Selections:
Rob Brantly, Travis D’Arnaud, Erik Kratz
Possible Minor League Draft Phase Selections:
Mike Zunino, Sebastian Valle, Tommy Joseph, Austin Romine
Possible In-season Pick-Ups:
Jason Hagerty, Chris Herrmann, Josh Phegley
If you have any questions on players who you felt were omitted from this article, please feel free to ask.
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Last Updated on Sunday, 20 January 2013 15:19 |
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The Prospector
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Written by Rob Leibowitz
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Friday, 07 December 2012 00:00 |
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With the Rule-5 draft now in the books, here are some first impressions!
Josh Fields was the first pick of the draft. The Astros selected the former Mariner first-round pick from the Red Sox organization. Fields was drafted as a closer prospect expected to make it to the Majors quickly. Now 27 years old, Fields has started to become a pitcher, throwing strikes while still posting well above a strikeout per inning. Fields is a solid pick that could stick with the Astros all season long and play a prominent role in their pen.
Nearly 25 years old, Hector Rondon spent most of 2012 recovering from Tommy John surgery. If not for the injury, he’d already be a part of the Indians' rotation. When healthy, Rondon is a strike-thrower with a good fastball/changeup combo. The Cubs could end up using him in middle relief with an eye on moving him towards starting if the righty is effective.
The Rockies selected lefty Daniel Rosenbaum from the Nationals. He’s a former 22nd round pick and something of your typical crafty lefty that throws strikes, gets groundballs, does not throw hard, but knows how to change speeds and throw strikes. Rosenbaum spent 2012 in Double-A as a starting pitcher.
The Red Sox lost pitcher Ryan Pressly to the Twins. A right-hander, Pressly spent time in A+ and Double-A in 2012. The former 11th round pick profiles best in middle relief where having a cut fastball and changeup may help him be effective against righties and lefties alike.
The first position player of the Rule-5 draft was Chris McGuiness from the Rangers organization. The Indians have had some difficulty getting production out of the 1B/DH slots so the move makes sense from that perspective. The lefty is a patient hitter with legitimate 20-plus per season HR power. Strikes me as a possible platoon first baseman with enough upside to be a solid, but unspectacular starter.
The Marlins are retooling their team and are in need of outfielders, so taking Alfredo Silverio from the Dodgers was a sound move. The righty is a fairly toolsy player who can play centerfield adequately, has 15-20 HR per season power potential and double-digit steal speed. Silverio makes fairly regular contact and could potentially hit for average, but has shortcomings when it comes to overall discipline and could have shortcomings when it comes to getting on base overall.
The Red Sox selected Jeff Kobernus from the Nationals and have already traded him to the Tigers for cash or a player to be named. The 24-year-old has plus speed, gap power, and makes contact 83-84% of the time but is an impatient hitter unlikely to post an OBP to make him a credible starter. The second baseman looks more like a utility player long-term to me, though one who may be an asset for fantasy players given 40+ steals in the Minors in each of the past two seasons.
Similarly it appears, the Mets have dealt a Rule-5 pick to Detroit. The selection was Kyle Lobstein from the Rays. Lobstein is a former second-round pick who made 27 starts for the Rays’ Double-A organization in 2012. The lefty does not throw hard but changes speeds and spins the ball well. 2012 was the first season in which his command was not an asset. The 23-year-old could have a future in middle relief or as a middle to back end member of a rotation.
Starlin Peralta was selected from the Cubs by the Diamondbacks. The 22-year-old’s future likely lies in the bullpen. The righty is a hard-thrower who can hit the mid to upper nineties and has mediocre command. The high octane fastball, however, has not resulted in high strikeout rates, indicating further work on his secondary stuff is necessary.
Ender Inciarte is a slightly built left-hander out of Venezuela, The 22-year-old outfielder has little to no power but stole 46 bases at two levels for the Diamondbacks while showing impressive contact-making abilities as well as a good batting eye, especially at full-season A-ball (1:1 BB/K ratio). If he somehow sticks with the Phillies, expect his role to be limited to defensive replacement and pinch-runner with an upside of replacing Juan Pierre's 2012 role. The test for all speedsters like Inciarte is whether or not MLB-caliber pitchers can simply overpower them. That combined with a multiple level jump could get Inciarte returned to Arizona.
In a surprising move, the White Sox selected journeyman shortstop Angel Sanchez from the Angels. The righty had a good season in the Texas League where he walked more often than struck out and batted .320/.390/.407. Regardless, Sanchez fits best on any MLB roster as a utility player/defensive replacement.
The Orioles selected T.J. McFarland from the Indians. A left-hander, McFarland is a pitch-to contact ground-baller who made 27 starts between Double-A and Triple-A in 2012. The red flag here is a drop off in strikeout rates to the sub-5.0 level during his stay in Triple-A. McFarland is most likely a fifth starter or middle reliever at best.
Sticking with pitchers, the Rangers selected Coty Woods from the Rockies. A nearly 25-year-old, Woods relieved in 61 games between Double-A and Triple-A in 2012, posting 27 saves along the way. It was a Jekyll and Hyde season as Woods posted an 8.6 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in Double-A before falling on his face with a 5.7 K/9 and 4.8 BB/9 following the righty’s promotion. A submariner, Woods' best role in the Majors would be as a right-handed relief specialist.
Nate Freiman was the final position player selected in the Rule-5 draft. As a 24-year-old, Frieman belted 24 homers in Double-A while making contact over 83% of the time and posting a .298/.370/.502 line. Right now, the Astros lack a true starting first baseman and are searching for stop gaps for Jonathan Singleton. The former 8th round draft pick’s power is legitimate with back-to-back 20+ HR seasons. He could fill a role as interim first baseman or designated hitter. His solid career contact hitting skills may also make Freiman more than a mere platoon player.
The final pick in the draft was Braulio Lara by the Marlins from the Rays. The 24-year-old has moved one level at a time and has pitched only as high as A+ ball where he posted a 5.71 ERA. Lara is a hard-thrower for a lefty but lacks command of his pitches and much beyond a fastball. There is lefty specialist potential here, but it is more likely that Lara gets returned to the Rays.
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Last Updated on Friday, 07 December 2012 11:44 |
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