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DownloadWhile the Tout Wars drafts in NYC are auction leagues, a 15-team mixed draft league was added last year, and I was glad to be back for my second year in the league.
My team faded to fourth place last year and I hope to do better in this year’s contest. To start, I drew the second slot in this year’s draft (the priority for slot selection given in order of last year's finish) which was held Tuesday evening (if you didn’t watch the draft live, HERE is a link to the completed rosters and the draft by rounds).
A few important notes before I give you my team or you inspect rosters – Tout leagues now use on-base percentage instead of batting average. In addition, there is only a four-man reserve squad. The other key difference is that when you FAAB a player, they must be in your active lineup for the upcoming week. Another unusual aspect to this league is that the first FAAB run will be run on March 23. Okay, onto my picks.
The good news was that I would get a stud contributor in four or five categories with my first selection – the bad news was waiting almost two rounds to see who they left me in the second round. After NFBC’s Tom Kessenich selected Mike Trout with the first pick, I took Miguel Cabrera and his massive OBP.
That made me much happier in the second round when strangely Carlos Gomez was available, and I readily clicked DRAFT. What I don’t understand is 13 other teams passing on Gomez and his counting stats just because his OBP might be lower than last year’s median .330. But pairing CarGo2 with Miggy would put me well above average.
Two picks later, I took my first pitcher, Marlins’ ace Jose Fernandez (fourth off the board after Kershaw 1.09, Darvish 2.06 and Scherzer 2.15).
On the 4/5 turn, I was looking for the best bats I could find and selected 1B/OF Mark Trumbo at 4.14 followed by C Carlos Santana and his projected .377 OBP balancing Trumbo nicely and giving me solid counting stats at C1.
I was planning on taking Everth Cabrera on the next turn but he went at 6.08, so I took Jose Altuve for my 2B slot and then took Detroit starter Anibal Sanchez at 7.02.
Readers of my earlier draft articles know I think Khris Davis of the Brewers is set to break out in a big way this year and I was happy to draft him in the eighth round and add my pick at 9.02, Dodger starter Hyun-Jin Ryu. A few interesting notes on trends in this draft and then I will list my full roster with draft slots at the end.
One thing you can count on if you are thinking about the next position to attack or player you want is that someone is likely to pull them off the board while you watch. That happened with several infielders and on the secondary closer run (Cishek 10.04, Papelbon 10.05, Rafael Soriano 10.06 and even Fernando Rodney 10.08 all disappeared from my queue in the tenth round). Then there was the final closer run, when Joakim Soria (22.09) and Josh Fields (22.10) were taken when I was going to take either one or both in that round/turn.
There was definitely a heavy discount applied to the starting pitchers who have injury issues this spring in this draft. Here are the four prominent examples with their Tout draft slot and NFBC ADP
Cole Hamels went at 12.02 (NFBC avg 6.12, latest 13.15)
Hisashi Iwakuma went at 11.12 (NFBC avg 8.10, latest 12.03)
Doug Fister went at 12.09 (NFBC avg 11.04, latest 13.10)
Kris Medlen went at 23.02 (NFBC avg 9.04, latest 23.10)
I was the one who took Medlen as my seventh starting pitcher with the outlook that if he has surgery, he will be my first drop (again an early FAAB run) or if he is on the disabled list I can DL him (unlimited DL slots in Tout leagues) and add a replacement.
That was also the reason I took Andy Dirks with my last reserve pick at 27.02. I will DL him and pick up either another hitter or perhaps a pitcher if I have a greater need there.
I did draft Javier Baez, the talented, young Cubs power hitter with my pick in the 22nd round. That was after other drafters had speculated on George Springer (16.09), Yordano Ventura (18.09), Taijuan Walker (19.08) and Noah Syndergaard (22.07) but ahead of Kevin Gausman (23.03), Jameson Taillon (24.09), Gregory Polanco (24.11), Tommy La Stella (25.03), Oscar Taveras (25.04), Byron Buxton (26.03) and Eddie Butler (27.09).
So here is my final roster with draft slots in parenthesis. I am glad to answer any questions here or in the Forums.
C – Carlos Santana (5.02)
C – Russell Martin (15.02)
1B – Mark Trumbo (4.14)
3B – Miguel Cabrera (1.02)
CI – Adam Lind (19.02)
2B – Jose Altuve (6.14)
SS – Jimmy Rollins (14.14)
MI – Martin Prado (10.14)
OF – Carlos Gomez (2.14)
OF – Khris Davis (8.14)
OF – Adam Eaton (13.02)
OF – Josh Reddick (17.02)
OF – Michael Brantley (20.14)
UT – Javier Baez (22.14) to be replaced with either Owings or Shuck or FA
SP – Jose Fernandez (3.02)
SP – Anibal Sanchez (7.02)
SP – Hyun-Jin Ryu (9.02)
SP – Jered Weaver (11.02)
SP – Wade Miley (18.14)
SP – Nathan Eovaldi (21.02)
SP – Kris Medlen (23.02)
CL – Casey Janssen (12.14)
CL – LaTroy Hawkins (16.14)
R1 – Chris Owings (24.14)
R2 – J.B. Shuck (25.02)
R3 – Tanner Scheppers (26.14)
R4 – Andy Dirks (27.02)
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Last Saturday night, the League of Alternative Baseball Reality – LABR convened for its 23rd auction draft. Hosted by USA Today and run by Steve Gardner, the conclave of writers and analysts serves as one of the first and most visible barometers of redraft auctions for AL and NL players.
I had two plans, although Plan A, buying Mike Trout for $40 or less, was not very likely. These auction tend to be very oversold early on the better players. So I quickly reverted to Plan B after Trout, the fifth player nominated, went for $45. That would be a severe spread the risk approach. I allotted $90 for my nine pitchers - $20 (always a +/- target) for the first three, two starters and one of the better closers, then $10 each for two more pitchers, either a SP and a lesser closer or two starters, and then ten dollars for the last four pitchers.
On the hitting side, I could get seven Tier 2 or 3 hitters around 20 dollars each and then fill out the other seven hitters for the remaining 30 dollars.
So how did that work out? Well, first here are the players I bought, with auction price in parenthesis, and my quick thoughts on their fantasy prospects for this season.
C – Jason Castro (14) - Finally got a full season of at-bats last year and hit 18 homers while batting .275.
C – Dioner Navarro (7) - I think he will hit 15-20 HR in Toronto’s launching pad and will have a positive batting average.
1B – Mark Teixeira (16) – Only time will tell how far he will come back, but 30+ HR is very likely.
3B – David Freese (12) – Even with mid teen HR output, he could have 80-90 RBI in Angels' lineup.
CI – James Loney (10) – Not exciting but solid double-digit homers with a good average.
2B – Jed Lowrie (15) – 2B/SS eligibility with 15+ HR.
SS – Asdrubal Cabrera (15) – Only danger to nice bounce back would be early arrival of Francisco Lindor and no trade.
MI – Ryan Goins (2) – Blue Jays starting 2B should have 6-8 HR and SB and 40-50 R/RBI.
OF – Norichika Aoki (19) – Could easily score 100+ runs leading off for Royals.
OF – Carlos Beltran (24) – I think he will hit 30+ in Yankee Stadium.
OF – Avisail Garcia (15) – Looking for breakout in first full season – 15-20 HR likely.
OF – Adam Eaton (17) – Eaton was off to a good start last year before the injury, and leading off for the White Sox every day, he should steal 20+ and score 80+ runs. Also has a little pop.
OF – David DeJesus (2) – A full season could mean 10-10 contributions with decent average.
UT – Anthony Gose (2) – Only non-starter in the lineup but could steal enough bases to make a solid contribution.
SP – Jered Weaver (18)
SP – Anibal Sanchez (21)
SP – Jose Quintana (10)
SP – Ricky Nolasco (4)
SP – Hector Santiago (7)
SP - Dylan Bundy (1)
CL – David Robertson (19)
CL – Josh Fields (8)
RP – Luke Gregerson (2)
Reserves – Yangervis Solarte (2B), Bruce Chen (SP), Eduardo Nunez (SS), Matt Lindstrom (RP), Jose Alvarez (SP), Chris Parmelee (1B/OF)
So the roster doesn’t look sexy – it is a red chip team. BUT 13 of 14 hitters are starters. Winning at-bats has long been the principal aim of the “spread the risk” auction strategy. Look at the scrubs on some of the other rosters who will not get anywhere near the at-bats thus chances for Runs or RBI that regular players - even lesser hitters will accumulate.
Only Gose is a projected part-time player for Toronto. Now that could change in two ways. Gose has an option left and Moises Sierra does not, so the Blue Jays could send him down to start the season. On the other hand, neither Melky Cabrera nor Jose Bautista is a picture of health, so there could certainly be more at-bats if Gose is the fourth outfielder on the roster, which he is right now.
But I did address that (as well as MI insurance) with Yangervis Solarte and Eduardo Nunez in the reserve rounds. The Yankees are saying that Nunez will play some third base (more if the Kelly Johnson experiment fails or if Johnson has to play at second base). In addition, the best hitter and most versatile defender so far in spring training for the Yankees has been Yangervis Solarte, a second baseman by minor league stats but who can play third base and has already played in the outfield.
One other thing to consider is the LABR rules for lineups and reserve players. You cannot just bench one of your auction bought starters and sub in a reserve. If a “regular” is not on the DL or sent to the Minors, you would have to drop them to activate a reserve. Reserve players, however, can be moved up and down each week. So two reserve players could effectively rotate based on matchups, and that is one of the reasons I made sure to draft a starting pitcher and a playable reliever in Bruce Chen and Matt Lindstrom. I can put one in the lineup for Dylan Bundy and then flip them back and forth each week – for home starts and matchups for Chen or if Lindstrom is getting save opportunities for the White Sox.
Several other owners did this but some did not. Also having reserve players that are playable is very helpful in trades where it is a way to upgrade another team’s active lineup (or give them the lineup flexibility).
None of that information means I am perfectly happy with my draft. While I was fine with a spread the risk strategy and looking at the AL hitters in tiers thought I could field a competitive team from the less expensive players, I did make one key error. While I like the four outfielders I paid double-digit auction dollars for, I would have been better off to spend a few more dollars for a corner infielder where the pool thins dramatically.
But that would have to have been with a better third baseman because both the Tier 2 first basemen, Eric Hosmer and Albert Pujols, went for several dollars more than we project them to earn. And buying Hosmer, who I like this year at $28, or Pujols, who is questionable for anything close to a full rebound at $29, means there is not profit even if they do better than projected.
I actually bought Freese to be my CI thinking I might be able to get a decent price for Xander Bogaerts, who we project to earn $15. Bogaerts came up two rounds later and went for $19, which prompted me to roster Beltran, who was the next player nominated and in my opinion the best power hitter left, for $24. The alternative at that point would have been to pay more for Josh Donaldson, who I have nowhere near as much confidence in for power numbers in 2014.
I do think there are several hitters who are good bets to earn more than projected value, but we shall see. I also think the pitching is good, especially if either/both Josh Fields closes for more than the first month for the Astros or Dylan Bundy is good when he enters the Orioles rotation – likely mid-season.
Fortunately, the league is not based on projections. Let’s see how the team looks six months down the road. {jcomments on}
Well it’s not quite an annual rant but some of you really need to know the truth about ADP.
As in Average Draft Position – and even that is a misnomer. What it really is comes from averaging already drafted spots of players in drafts. BUT the key components are:
1) When were these drafts? How current is the information?
2) What was the league format that was being drafted?
3) Who was in the draft? How many bots? (If that answer is any number other than 0 throw it away)
Number one is I hope, self-explanatory, as is number three.
Number two is probably the most important. The LABR mixed draft that Todd wrote about here is terrific information. Not about where to draft someone in YOUR draft but about what THAT writer or analyst thought about the player pool on THAT particular day. But does your draft match the same positions or have the same number of players? Nobody drafting in the NFBC or FBPC should view that as more than entertaining information because the formats are totally different – in both the high stakes leagues you have all the draft slots to assemble a starting lineup, you don’t have to have all the specific roster slots filled at the end of 23 rounds. And LABR, like Tout, has very different reserve player rules than the high stakes leagues, and even if it was only one (and I suspect it was several more than that) drafter who purposely waited on a player to make sure they had Reserve status (i.e. can be activated/reserved any week as opposed to a drafted player who can only be reserved for DL status), it would skew the positions.
What you really need to know, rather than the number of the draft slots averaged out, is what was the earliest the player was drafted and what was the latest spot the player was drafted (information that NFBC gives its paying customers) with min and max for each player in addition to the averaged number. Yes, all the shows in addition to the weekly NFBC show on SiriusXM are using that information, although we really don’t know the last time the radio folk got the updated numbers. And even then we don’t know if some of the really odd “earliest picks” were the result of some online accident (but there are instances of that).
I am not saying that ADP is not valuable assuming everything is a perfect match for the league you will be drafting in. It does give you “market research.” But remember the most important thing is YOUR rankings and knowing where to draft players. And don’t forget you can ask questions with quick answers in our Platinum Forums.
And the best way to get that is to draft – even if it is just practice. And if you want practice and can’t afford low entry leagues or can’t find leagues that match what you need to practice for, try the Draft Wizard by fantasy pros. You can set the parameters you want and do a whole draft in less than an hour. Still at blazing speeds, slow down and look at the players actually being drafted instead of just making your next pick.
Finally, remember that if all your picks are based on Average Draft Position, you will only have an average team. {jcomments on}
Especially in fantasy baseball drafts – risers and fallers abound. But I thought we could kill two birds in one column by showing you the rosters I drafted for an NFBC style Draft & Hold league at First Pitch Arizona, which is the first weekend of November.
NOV 2012 for 2013 season – drafting from the #2 hole where I took Mike Trout
C – A.J. Ellis, Rob Brantly, Jason Castro, Ryan Hanigan
1B – Ryan Howard, Kendrys Morales, Chris McGuiness
3B – Manny Machado, Lonnie Chisenhall, Juan Francisco
2B – Jason Kipnis, Robert Andino, Eduardo Nunez
SS – Marco Scutaro, Jurickson Profar, Clint Barmes
OF – Mike Trout, Jose Bautista, Desmond Jennings, Josh Reddick, Starling Marte, Aaron Hicks, Avisail Garcia, Russ Canzler, Wil Venable
SP – Yu Darvish, David Price, Kris Medlen, Jeremy Hellickson, Hisashi Iwakuma, Rick Porcello, Danny Duffy, Patrick Corbin, Mark Rogers, Erasmo Ramirez, Bartolo Colon, Eric Stults, Robbie Erlin, Martin Perez
RP – Joe Nathan, Tom Wilhelmsen, Glen Perkins, Nate Jones, Vinnie Pestano, Santiago Casilla, Josh Fields, Franklin Morales, Nate Jones, Drew Smyly, Robbie Ross, Sean Doolittle
I started this draft with Trout, Bautista and Price but you can see that an awful lot of later picks bore fruit. I ended up with only the third/fourth best offense with 56.0 points but strangled the pitching categories with 71.5 points and won the league by four points with a total of 127.5. Only Derek Van Riper of Rotowire, who finished 2nd, was also over 100 points – in fact 3rd was 90 points.
For benchmarks, here were my totals and points in each category:
Batting Average: .2693 (11)
Runs: 987 (14, 60 behind 1st)
Home Runs: 232 (10)
Runs Batted In: 869 (8)
Stolen Bases: 177 (13)
Earned Run Average: 3.295 (15)
Wins: 101 (14, one win behind 1st)
WHIP: 1.160 (15)
Strikeouts: 1357 (15)
Saves: 96 (12.5)
Now let’s see how my team ended up this year (again drafting the first 23 players in November and the rest online in January). I drew the first spot and picked the same player.
NOV 2013 for 2014 season
C – Wilson Ramos, Evan Gattis (C/OF), Yan Gomes (C/1B), Josmil Pinto
1B – Adrian Gonzalez, Mike Napoli
3B – Chase Headley, Juan Francisco (1B/3B)
2B – Daniel Murphy, Darwin Barney, Ryan Goins
SS – Erick Aybar, Brad Miller, Mike Aviles (2B/3B/SS)
OF – Mike Trout, Carlos Gomez, Wil Myers, J.B. Shuck, Matt Joyce, A.J. Pollock, Brandon Barnes, Skip Schumaker (2B/OF), Jose Tabata, Kyle Parker
UT – Garrett Jones (1B/OF)
SP – Jose Fernandez, David Price, Alex Cobb, Travis Wood, Tyson Ross, Dan Straily, Carlos Torres, Brett Oberholtzer, Henderson Alvarez, Eric Johnson, Miguel A. Gonzalez, Jason Vargas, Ross Detwiler, Felipe Paulino, Andrew Heaney, Trevor Bauer, David Hale, Rubby De La Rosa
RP – Trevor Rosenthal, Danny Farquhar, Cody Allen, Josh Fields, Brad Ziegler, A.J. Ramos, Mike Dunn
Here is hoping for a repeat. {jcomments on}Okay, we are specifically talking about the catchers you would roster in an NFBC 50-round Draft & Hold league. Remember that the 50 players you draft are all you have for the entire 2014 season – there are no free agent pickups.
So which ones do you take and how many do you roster?
If you read “Don’t Get CAUGHT Short” you know my thoughts on the subject. But obviously, some have other opinions. Read the following and then tell me yours.
Here are the rostered catchers from a recent Draft & Hold league:
So which team do you think will get the best hitting contributions from their catchers?
Are there any teams that will not be able to compete all year with their catchers? {jcomments on}