Mastersball, fantasy baseball, scouting, analysis, projections

It has been an odd season in National League Tout Wars. Despite my being the defending champion, the honeymoon didn’t last long. Out of the gate, one well-known media fantasy watcher pegged my 2010 draft as the absolute worst in the 13-team league.

Early results seemed to confirm that prognostication before I acquired Hunter Pence via trade in May. Soon, everything clicked with my roster to the extent that I had accumulated a 20-point league lead and held it as recently as early July.

Then, the tables turned. Boy, did they ever. My club may have peaked too soon as ESPN’s Nate Ravitz, always a formidable competitor, stormed from 20 down to 20 over in the span of just a few weeks. I am now in third place, scratching to improve.

Having a solid pitching staff at a time when seemingly everyone is trying to trade arms for hitting caused me to head to the waiver wire to acquire badly-needed infield at-bats. Having eight players on the DL means despite having only four reserve slots, there was roster room to make moves.

Somehow, despite having only the sixth or seventh-most free agent (FAAB) money remaining, I managed to snare Miguel Tejada in the flurry of July 31 deadline deals. Considering everything, I was pleased with that outcome, despite the fact it cost me $51 and I have just $3 remaining for the rest of the season.

The first base situation in Philadelphia attracted my attention once Ryan Howard sprained his ankle. Even before the slugger went onto the disabled list, I scanned the options seemingly most readily available to general manager Ruben Amaro Jr.

Organizational soldier, 36-year-old Andy Tracy, toiling at first for the third consecutive season with the Lehigh Iron Pigs of the International League, seemed a viable target. The left-handed hitter has 14 home runs, 56 RBI and an .856 OPS in 329 at-bats along with a resume that includes two short stints with the Phillies last season and 149 career MLB games.

As a result, I placed a $1 proactive bid, the minimum amount for minor leaguers in Tout, and acquired Mr. Tracy. It didn’t proceed from there as I had hoped.

Instead of Tracy getting the call, the Phils added outfielder John Mayberry Jr., ten years younger but with lesser stats than Tracy in every category with the exception of stolen bases.

It didn’t matter much. A day later, Amaro acquired veteran Mike Sweeney from Seattle to be his everyday first sacker while Howard is out. In the next FAAB period, Sweeney drew a $25 Vickrey Bid, with an ultimate cost of $10, despite having what seems to be a very short shelf life.

As Sweeney settled in, Mayberry found himself back with the Iron Pigs alongside Tracy just four days later. The loss of the $1 was less urgent to me than the potential loss of at-bats in the interim.

I tried to move on in NL Tout, but couldn’t acquire a replacement infielder this past week. Instead, I temporarily slipped Tejada into a corner infield role while also starting the man he replaced in San Diego, Everth Cabrera. I continue to mark the days until Martin Prado’s broken finger heals enough for him to be activated from the DL.

I was feeling slightly better until Thursday came along. That was the day Chipper Jones was ruled out for the season and K-Rod woke up in jail. Both were stalwarts of my Tout roster.

With Tracy, the thought crossed my mind about whether the Phils passing him over had anything to do with some very strong comments he made in late July criticizing the announcement of random blood testing of minor leaguers from human growth hormone (HGH).

In his remarks, Tracy hammered both the decision to test and the MLB Players Association for allowing it to happen. That couldn’t have made anyone in the hierarchy happy.

I can’t help but wonder if Tracy is feeling a bit like me today, wondering about missed National League opportunities.

At any rate, don’t hesitate to keep making those speculative bids during the final two months in your leagues whether they come through or not.

Brian Walton is the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 12-year history. He is a 2009 NFBC league winner and finished in the top 25 nationally in both the NFBC and NFFC last season. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com.

Well, that did not work out as planned.  Truth be told, that is the theme of my entire 2010 NL Tout Wars season, but for now, I am solely referencing my FAAB management.

In AL and NL only formats, I approach FAAB in one of two ways: spend early and often or hoard the budget to pick up a big fish at the MLB trading deadline.  My team’s plight usually dictates the course of action.  If I have multiple injuries or under-producing players, I do not hesitate to dip into the FAAB waters early in the season.  I employ the mindset that so long as I am taking myself out of the running for the top crossover players later in the season, I am not reticent about “overbidding” early, especially since Tout Wars utilizes the Vickery system, assigning the winning bid to be $1 more than the runner-up bid.  If my team is relatively injury free, it could be a case of the rich getting richer as an injury free team usually fares better, then will get reinforcement at the trading deadline.  I have enjoyed recent success with both styles, winning the National Fantasy Baseball Championship NL only Las Vegas auction in 2008 largely due to some judicious free agent pickups throughout the season, then defending my title by riding the back of Matt Holliday, acquired by the St. Louis Cardinals from the Oakland Athletics last season.

Earlier in the week, I received an e-mail from a very astute owner offering me enough FAAB to vault me back into the remaining FAAB lead, which would enable me to pick up whatever crossover player I deemed most valuable.  But a funny thing happened on the way to the trading deadline.  I was completely unaware I had not spent a single FAAB dollar all season, and if it were not for another owner getting a rebate due to a player placed on the 60-day DL and being ruled out for the season, I would have had the most available dollars to spend.   The chief reason I was oblivious to this was it was not my intent to miserly hold my FAAB.   I made a few non-zero bids along the way, but others bid more.  I picked up a couple of $0 players as backups those weeks.  I lost Jimmy Rollins early, but addressed that loss via trade. More recently, I lost Chase Utley, but still had Rollins’ replacement on reserve so I did not need to make a claim.  And though my team is not performing as expected, it has more to do with a scuffling pitching staff that I never felt comfortable addressing via FAAB.  I decided the guys I had in place had a better chance of turning things around than the pitchers that popped up on the wire as the season progressed.

Normally if I was in this position, I would be counting the days to the trading deadline, knowing I was about to add a piece to either thrust my team into contention or to fortify an already solid squad.  But quite humbly, while I will do all I can to improve my stead, I am going to need a lot more than the best starting pitcher added to my squad to capture my first ever Tout Wars title.  Even a third place finish is remote.

Now let us get to the real reason for this essay, as the gang at Mastersball has a saying, “no one cares about your team but you.”  I am not sure if it is a great compliment or a biting insult, but someone once said of yours truly, “it is a waste of time arguing with Zola, he always ends up trying to teach you something he thinks you don’t know.”

In deep leagues, there is no reason at all to fret if you do not land the big score at the trading deadline.   As most are aware, there are basically two trading deadlines.   In recent seasons, there seem to be more waiver deals of consequence.  It is nearly as advantageous to lead in FAAB total after the first deadline as it is to lead going in.  You may very well end up with a better player than several who indulged after the July 31 deadline.

In addition, and this is the point that many may not realize, there will be a myriad of players called up from the Minors that can help a team down the stretch.  Having the most FAAB during these weeks can result in tasting the sweet Yoohoo.  Trust me, I know.  This is the equivalent of having the most money during the end game of the regular auction.  You get your pick of the litter while simultaneously depriving your competition of the same.  This can be the difference between winning and losing.

So the take-home lesson, sorry gang, I apparently was born to teach, is to not spend frivolously at the trade deadline “just because”.  There will be a couple more opportunities to strengthen your team for the home stretch.   The first is via having top dibs on those involved in waiver deals.  The second is leaving a little something in the kitty to pick up those promoted to The Show when rosters expand in September.

A few short weeks ago this probably would have a very different piece. On the 20^th of June I was in third place, 14.5 points off the pace and I was still in third 5 days later. By no means was that an insurmountable task.  I probably would have grumbled about the loss of Kendry Morales. Ok, I can still grumble about his lack of movement to the 60 day DL so I could reclaim his FAAB, but I would have written about how that was going to be the tool that would have let me have my pick of anyone who might come over at the July 31^st trade deadline and discussed some FAAB strategy to block my opponents moves. Well, less than a month later, I am 26.5 points off the pace and in eighth. Times are a wee bit more desperate and my odds of having a potential first place team are slipping from my grasp, so instead I have had to spend my FAAB advantage a bit and have taken a few risks to climb back up.

There is a lesson here – and an important one. Just because we are half way through the season, it does not mean the standings are not volatile. This is far from true. Sure, it helps drive a downward descent if Kevin Millwood and Andy Oliver give up 10 ER in 2.2 IP combined, but you get my point. As you may recall, our current first place leader, Jason Grey, was more than 10 points off the lead in LABR a few years back with a week to go in the season and climbed over several teams in that period of time to take the title. So, yes there is volatility even that late in the year.

Fantasy baseball, when it comes down to it, is all about using volatility and harnessing it as best as you can. The basic goal is to rise above the volatile portions of the standings, those categories with tightly packed counting totals, and gain separation to minimize sudden downward volatility when it counts – the final week of the season. Our current leader, Jason Grey, knows all about this, having ridden a 10 point or more fluctuation in the final week of the season to win a LABR title. So while analysts like me may expect things to regress to the mean over the long-term with individual players, small sample sizes can have quite turbulent impacts, unless you do your best to buffer yourself against them when you can.

The reality, in most situations, is a game of action and reaction where one team tries to climb through the tight packs of standings, most typically and easiest to accomplish by acquiring saves or stolen bases, and then another team attempts to top them, and so on. Some teams are likely to fall by the wayside as the trade options become unavailable to them and the result often is the creation of two separate clusters, but with less significant sudden volatility due to the creation of more tiers. One of my favorite tactics is to try to make that push right at the season trade deadline in late August and throw the dice, trying to be the final person to make that move. Additionally, it is always best to deal from your strength not just to a team that fits the bill of an area you are trying to gain ground in, but to a team that can pass another team that this perhaps closer to you in the overall standings.

So that brings us back to my team as we head into the first weekend of the second half. I have cushions, or low volatility in runs scored and RBI with roughly a margin of 50 over the next team in each category. I also have stability in home runs, though not as much as I used to. Once I had an over 30 home run lead, but due to injuries, it has faded to 17, so I might lose a point, but not likely another given a 35 home run lead over the next highest team in that category. A good sign I can deal Jose Bautista if I wish, especially if I gain a player who is likely to gain me more than a point in the standings.

Other than those categories, my team is in the thick of all that volatility. Steals are towards the lower end, but not a completely lost cause, but would necessitate one, if not two good base stealers to push back into the thick of things. Batting average I am right in the middle of things in the mid .260’s. There is little to do here. Hitters like Dustin Pedroia and Bobby Abreu, typically hit for average, so hoping those players regress towards their normal level of play and moving the lower-batting average types is a way to go here.

Saves is perhaps the category I should be pushing in and one many others are likely looking at. The addition of a single closer could enable just about any team to gain some very much needed separation. I’m crossing my fingers, but not holding my breath that Mike Gonzalez will be the key for me to accomplish that. Otherwise it’s the FAAB and trade market.

The big key though is pitching and ERA that is second to last, wins that are third to last, and WHIP that is third to last, and fourth place in strikeouts, but only 40 strikeouts behind first and 16 behind second while only currently starting 6 starters. Back when I was in third, Millwood was healthy and Vazquez had come around, Brett Cecil was pitching well, and I had just acquired Francisco Liriano. I now have the option of putting in Dan Hudson, Andy Oliver (meh), and Kevin Millwood (oi!) when he returns and cross my fingers hoping they are effective and/or healthy. I also bid $4 on Michael Pineda, hoping he might get the call to the Majors too.  Adding starters, of course, is an excellent way to jump up the standings in strikeouts and wins (except when you’re starting both Millwood and Guthrie at the same time), though you do of course risk WHIP and ERA. Fortunately, I have little to risk, and given the potential of some of the starters, it is possible that there could be upwards movement across the board.

So get out there and embrace your league's volatility. Take advantage of it where you can still gain up ground while keeping in mind not just what you need, but the timing and who else you can impact as a result of the deal. And lastly, keep a close eye on your cushion(s). They have a tendency to wear thin over time.

The last time we looked at my fifteen team mixed TOUT league team in May I was in fourth place with 96 points. Of course that was just two weeks before Kendry Morales’ celebration at home plate after a home run took him out of my lineup and the Angels, likely for the rest of the year.

The Angels are doing better without Morales than I am since he was one of my few solid home run hitters and now after also losing Shin-Soo Choo, I am at 80 points in eighth place. I guess the good news is that I am only nine points from getting back to fourth place.

Not that that is likely but I am going to give it my best shot and hope the pitchers (31 points) can catch up to the offense (49 points).  I had some offers for a starting pitcher last month and with Coco Crisp finally coming off the disabled list, had an extra outfielder, so I was able to package Ian Kennedy and Juan Rivera to get the Dodger’s James Loney from Baseball HQ’s Paul Petera. This also enabled me to move Alberto Callaspo back to MI, replacing Yuniesky Betancourt. The net change there might be a very small loss in power but an increase in both stolen bases and average.

I was carrying a couple of extra pitchers on reserve, having acquired Carlos Silva and Clint Narveson as free agents, and I supplemented that last week with a timely addition of Ross Ohlendorf who has pitched much better in the last few weeks. In fact if he hadn’t been tossing batting practice for Lance Berkman this week it would have been even better.

Here is the current lineup:

C – McCann & B. Molina

CI – Loney, C. Jones, & Cantu

MI – Ellis, Andrus, & Callaspo

OF – Byrd, J. Upton, C. Young, Adam Jones, & Crisp

UT – R. Sweeney

SP – Greinke, Garland, W. Rodriguez, LeBlanc, Ohlendorf, Kendrick, & Latos

RP – Capps & Aardsma

Reserves – W. Aybar, Silva, Wolf, & A. Chapman

DL – Asdrubal Cabrera, Morales, & Choo

Right now after a strong pitching week, I can easily pick up one point in Wins, one in Saves, one or two in ERA, two points in WHIP and one or two in strikeouts. Things will be a little tougher on offense because while there are one or two points in Runs, one point in RBI, SB and BA that I could pick up, I will be fighting not to lose any more points in Home Runs with Loney, Crisp, and Sweeney replacing Morales, Rivera, and Choo.

But there is almost half a season left and I still have some starters I could trade for upgrades and who knows, maybe Aroldis Chapman eventually helps both me and the Reds.

Welcome to the second of our weekly series looking at the Tout Wars leagues - American, National and mixed. It is a great pleasure to compete at this level and it is only natural for those of us here at Mastersball to share our thoughts and experiences with you in hopes they can be applied to your local leagues, as well.

This time around, I am going to discuss the potential benefits of pre-emptive moves in two areas, the disabled list and minor leaguers.

Starting with the former, you might think it is the simplest of binary decisions. Disable the player on when hurt and take him off when well.

Of course, that is true, but there can be more. In the single-league population Tout Wars, the DL can be an important extension to the roster if used creatively.

Take National League Tout, for example. It is a 13-team league with 23-man active rosters and a four-man reserve. In that environment, most every breathing hitter is already taken. Here’s how dry the well is. Last week, the free agent with the most at-bats the previous week had just four all week long.

Several years back, Tout dropped from six reserve players to four to try to increase the size of the available player pool. However, there is a way to counterbalance the smaller roster. All along, the league has allowed unlimited DL moves. As such, it can serve as a valuable place to stash players who may come back later to contribute – and ensure your competition can’t get them.

For example, during draft day’s reserve rounds, I selected former Yankees starter Chien-Ming Wang, now property of the Washington Nationals. Though then (and still) on the disabled list, Wang could be immediately be placed on Tout’s injured list and I could then fill his spot with another free agent. If Wang is able to come back and contribute in the second half, I will basically gain a free pitcher. If not, I will drop him with no loss.

About a month ago, I noticed that San Diego’s Chris Young, a former all-star and a very talented hurler who seems chronically injured, was available as a free agent. Tout rules state I would have to bid at least $1 for Young and would be required to keep him active one week. The next week, I could move him to the DL and grab another player. That is exactly what I did. If Young comes back, I will receive a bonus and if not, the gamble was very small.

Sadly, this is just two of the 12 players on my NL Tout disabled list at the start of the week. Yet partially assisted by creative use of the DL, I can still field a competitive team.

Another type of pre-emptive move of interest in this league format is to grab minor leaguers expected to be called up to the majors soon. Again, a minimum bid of $1 is required and the player must remain active that first week, generating zero stats. The difference is that when inactivated, he will have to use one of the four precious reserve spots until he reaches the bigs and can be used.

On my Tout roster, I am carrying two such players as my other two reserves. One has been on reserve the entire season while I picked up the other two weeks ago

Heading into the draft, I targeted the ancient corner infielders of the Atlanta Braves, Troy Glaus and Chipper Jones. I dropped out of the bidding for Glaus, but landed Chipper. In the reserve round, I added Atlanta’s young first base prospect Freddie Freeman. With the injury histories of Glaus and Chipper, I figure one will hit the DL at some point and hopefully, Freeman will be ready in Triple-A, as Ike Davis was with the Mets earlier on. Davis was a reserve pick by one of my competitors, taken before my first turn came up. I wanted him as insurance for Daniel Murphy, who turned out to be a bad $8 investment as he is out for the season.

My other speculative pick is former Texas Rangers top prospect Thomas Diamond. The right-hander is now with the Iowa Cubs and was just named a Pacific Coast League All-Star.  Diamond has a 2.53 ERA and is collecting strikeouts at a rate of better than one per inning. With the Cubs one of the two biggest disappointments in the league (along with Arizona), perhaps the now-27-year-old will finally get his chance before too much longer.

Diamond wasn’t my first choice. I actually wanted Cincinnati’s Travis Wood, who posted seven innings of two-run ball in his impressive MLB debut Thursday night, but two weeks ago, another league-mate bid the same amount with a higher waiver priority. Obviously, I don’t own these moves exclusively.

The message here is to always be thinking ahead. Pick up players who can help you today – if they are available. If not, grab as many players who have a chance of contributing later in the season as your rules will allow.

Brian Walton is the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 12-year history. He is a 2009 NFBC league winner and finished in the top 25 nationally in both the NFBC and NFFC last season. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com.

This season has been one to test even my patience, and I do consider myself a very patient man. And, not just in Tout Wars.

In the NFBC, I have Jake Peavy and Javier Vazquez. In LABR Chone Figgins, whom I also have in the NFBC, and Tout. Along with Jason Kubel.

Slow starters, all, they are, which means all my teams have been at the bottom, and I mean decisively, of the standings for much of the first two months of the season.

At one point my Tout team was down to 23 points, almost 70 out of first place. Which gets extra goofy when you think that 70 points is worth fourth or fifth place.

Truth is, I was not dreaming I could win Tout at this point. I just want to finish as high as I can, and more, not set a record for the worst point total ever. But, as Diane noted, "You won last year. You can't win every year, can you?"

Well, I can try, and again, I just don't want my 93 point winning total of last year to be a palindrome of 39 points this.

It has been hard: being patient. But, if you own Vasquez or Kubel or Figgins or Peavy, you know they have begun to play well, and with them, most of my teams have crawled out of the depths. In the NFBC, we are competitive. In LABR, it is good for ninth place now and there are actually points out there that suggest I could win if the stars align, the cosmic giggle prevails, and miracles push forward.

Then, in Tout I did actually pull out of last, in fact I am now in 11th place, with 41 points. I am still 50-odd points off the leader, but, I am also both 18 points out of last. In fact my team has picked up those 18 points, but to illustrate how rough and long the road ahead is, if I can pick up another 18 points over the next month, that puts me at 59 total points, maybe good enough for ninth place. Maybe.

What is extra odd with my Tout team, though, is I am now in second place in wins, but near the bottom of the pack in ERA and WHIP. So, lots of my hope is in continuing to get good pitching from Peavy and John Lackey, another slow starter.

I am also seventh in homers in Tout, but near the bottom in runs scored and RBI, so it is more hits I need, not just taters, just like I need good innings, not just wins. Because though I am good in homers, my average is an awful .242, 20 points off the masses clustered in the .260's.

On the other hand, a month ago my team average was .217, so climbing up to the .265 mark is not unthinkable with almost half the season to go. It is just, as they say, a long row to hoe.

I am hopeful that maybe we can climb as high as 65 points, and maybe sixth place, but the trick so far has been not panicking. Because had I, I would have traded Peavy and Kubel and Figgins, and all the good numbers they are now producing they would be giving to a new owner. And, I would likely still be floundering in last.

It is indeed tough to wait. And, Diane is correct. No one wins every year. But, I can still compete. And, I can still give my opponents as much grief and play spoiler as much as I can.

For there are lots of ways to play and lots of ways to derive satisfaction during the season. Doing my best is one of them.