Mastersball

Last week, we looked at some pretty good players who seem to be undervalued in mock drafts this year. This week, we can look a bit deeper, and look for some nuggets that are reserve squad fodder in a lot of leagues who I think will get some playing time and even be able to contribute in deeper formats and might even latch onto--or sometimes hang onto--full time jobs.

Tyler Flowers (C, White Sox): As it stands, Flowers is the Opening Day backstop for the Pale Hose. He is also coming off a career high 136 at-bats, playing behind A.J. Pierzynski and his career year. The .213-7-13 line there is a lot of what seems to be scaring owners off, but I look at Flowers a lot like I look at George Kottaras: if these guys can manage 450 at-bats, they can each hit close to 20 dingers at a marginal price. Baseball is loaded with catchers like this who seemingly come out of nowhere to clobber the ball. Kelly Shoppach. Mike Stanley. Rod Barajas. I have only seen Flowers go to a mock 23-man roster once so far and that likely should not be the case. He is more than worth a late gamble, especially as a #2 backstop.

Brandon Crawford (SS, Giants): I was bullish on Crawford last season and the dude came through with a decent enough .248-4-45 season over 435 at-bats in his first full season. OK, so in most leagues that will not help a lot but Crawford does hit line drives and does have his hot streaks. And, well, I have not seen his name come up once in any draft yet. Crawford will play, barring anything unforseen, as he is among the best defensive shortstops in the Show (I am happy to have him on my Strat-O-Matic team, where defense makes a huge difference) and I just have this Frank White/Ozzie Smith feeling about Crawford: that once he settles in, he can learn to be a solid hitter. If you are scratching your head, go look at the lines those guys put up in their first couple of seasons.

Scott Sizemore (2B, Athletics): Anyone even remember Sizemore was slated as the Opening Day third sacker last year when he wrecked his knee and missed the entire season, a season where his mates came out of nowhere to win 94 games without him? Well, as much as I like Jemile Weeks, I think a very solid--and typically underrated--Oakland infield of Brandon Moss, Sizemore, Jed Lowrie, and Josh Donaldson will emerge as the mainstays as Oakland challenges to defend their division title in what now might be the toughest in baseball despite the presence of the Astros. Sizemore has never played a full season, but his 162 game mean extrapolated is .239-14-71 with 30 doubles. I actually think he can add 20 or so points to the average, meaning in a deep league Sizemore becomes a solid MI option.

Michael Saunders (OF, Seattle): I got Saunders as a reserve pick in Tout Wars last year and all he did was hit .247-19-57 with 21 swipes. That is pretty good production from a reserve pick who cost me nothing at the auction. Saunders is slated to start in right field at Safeco this year, but I have not seen him picked before the 20th round in anything so far. I actually think Saunders can deliver similar power/speed numbers and boost his RBI and average totals now that a full season of starting is under his belt (word is that Saunders has been working with a private hitting coach during the off-season). As a fifth outfielder, those power/speed numbers could be a boon. In a deep AL-only format, or NFBC draft-and-follow format, he could be equally huge.

Luke Gregerson (RP, Padres): Over four years, Gergerson is 11-14, 2.92 with 288 whiffs over 280.2 innings. Add in 89 walks and 223 hits and you have a 1.112 WHIP, so the question is what does this guy have to do in order to get a closing gig? Well, Gregerson is tossing behind Huston Street, a modicum of health. You want to have Gregerson when Street has to take a hike.

Brett Wallace (1B, Astros): True respect has to be earned, but you have to wonder about Wallace, drafted in the 42nd round by Toronto in 2005 (he went to ASU instead), then in the first round by the Cardinals in 2008. The Cards traded Wallace to the Athletics as part of the Matt Holliday swap and Oakland turned him right over to those same Jays (for Michael Taylor) who finally traded him to the Astros. At just 25, I am not sure if attitude gets in the way of Wallace's improving, but he is only 26, and on a team that has more position openings than the Kama Sutra. He also has a minor league line of .307-63-241 over 401 games, and I think if he just knows he is starting every day--be it at first or third, or even DH--Wallace will settle in and show he can hit in the Majors as well.

Mark Buehrle (SP, Blue Jays): Everyone thinks the Jays are the team to beat in the AL going into 2013 and that alone suggests the dependable Mr. Buehrle should grab his usual 12-14 wins. Over 13 years, Buehrle has averaged a 14-11, 3.82 mark pitching 223 innings with a 1.27 WHIP. True, his mean whiffs are only 127, but in context that is not so bad for a fifth or sixth starter, and the one thing we need from our teams is dependability. No way Buehrle does not deliver that. Yet I seem to be grabbing him in the 23rd round or so all over.

Trevor Rosenthal (RP, Cards): Rosenthal made a splash at the end of 2012 with St. Louis, whiffing 25 over 22.2 late-season innings. Rosenthal came through the Minors as a starter however, and somehow among Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, and Joe Kelly, the 22-year-old will emerge as the go-to guy by mid-season. Over 48 minor league starts, Rosenthal was 22-14, 3.53, with 298 whiffs over 285.1 innings (237 hits, 98 walks and a 1.17 ratio). Just a feeling about this guy, but a good one. I think he is poised beyond the rest of the Cards pitching pack.

As I have noted, this time of the year is rife with mock drafts, which do whet the appetite for the real thing. They are also a valuable indicator to me, not so much of ADP, but precieved value.

Since all my mocks have been among "industry" folks, whatever that means, I thought I would share some observations regarding players whose market value within the mocks is less at least than what I think the player's actual value/probable return will be (of course, just by publishing this stuff, a lot of times the players suddenly creep up a few rounds, so I might be slitting my own wrists here).

Anyway, since the objective is to gain a return on our player investments, I think these are all guys who will indeed provide just that, at least based upon where they have gone in those same mocks thus far.

Tim Lincecum (SF, P): Timmy could well be the grand bargain overall as far as gamble crapshoots go in 2013 drafts and auctions. Of course that also means he could sink a team, depending upon how much the investment is, but I have noticed Lincecum going around Round 9 the bulk of the time. In fact, I have been the one who has tried to bag him around that time, and when I have, at least one draft mate has been rankled (always a positive sign). I think Lincecum will bounce back, maybe not with the Cy Young numbers he has posted, but still with some very solid ones, like around 15 wins, a 3.60 ERA, a 1.28  WHIP and a strikeout per inning. Removed from the burden of being the stopper every time, he will settle into the #2 or even #3 slot in the rotation, happy as a clam. Delivering accordingly.

Dayan Viciedo (OF, CHW): .255-25-78 last year during his first full-time season in the Majors--which are essentially Bryce Harper numbers--seem to garner very little respect. His splits were remarkably similar over the course of 2012, and since he turns 24 this coming March, Viciedo could really give a nice payoff considering he is being picked around Rounds 14-15. If he just does what he did last year at that spot, payoff city.

Josh Reddick (OF, OAK): Reddick seems to fall along with Viciedo, largely because he did indeed slump second half, hitting .215-12-42 compared to the .268-20-43 the right fielder collected before the break. A lot of that could be attributed though to his .164-4-12 September, for during the rest of the season, Reddick was pretty steady in the .255-5-14 range each month. Meaning a first long season could have zapped him some. Still, as one of the best defenders in the league, coming off a 30-plus homer season, the right fielder will have plenty of rope before playing himself out of the starting lineup. Again, in the mocks, he is a lot like Viciedo, getting taken around the 14th round, several times by me. If he gives numbers like Viciedo again, that is a bargain (50 homers out of the bottom third of the draft is pretty good), in fact I have been able to nab both as back-to-back picks in a couple of drafts.

Howie Kendrick (2B, LAA):  It is odd to me that we do talk about the elite second sackers, and then the huge drop-off. Well, Kendrick is among those guys who are considered part of that drop, which is sort of a puzzle. His 162-game mean is .292-12-75 with 39 doubles, and 15 swipes. Kendrick does like to swing the lumber, hence a .328 OBP and .756 OPS over that span. As a means of comparison, Dustin Pedroia's mean is .303-17-77 with 38 doubles and 19 swipes, yet , D-Ped is considered a top selection while Kendrick is being pegged around the 16th-18th rounds. I am guessing the second sacker, who is on a team that should score a lot of runs, still has a monster season in his future.

Erick Aybar (SS, LAA): While we are at it, looking up the middle of the Angels, Aybar is similarly dismissed. Though he has been going a few rounds before his Kendrick counterpart, it is still puzzling, as he has a .278-7-53 mean, with 21 steals over his seven seasons as a major leaguer. In 2012, Aybar did struggle in April and May, hitting .223-0-11, but from then on out it was .324-8-34 with 16 steals. Like Kendrick, I think the 29-year-old, on this team, is still going to take his game up a notch or two. 

Matt Wieters (C, BAL): Remember when Wieters was the next big thing? I remember during a mock after his AFL stint, the catcher was drafted in the third round of a standard Scoresheet League (which assumes 13 keepers) and the move was hailed as "brilliant." Well, hard to tell if Wieters was worth freezing these five years since, and though his numbers have steadily increased each of his full seasons the last three years, the .261-21-79 162-game average he has produced has been a disappointment to most (does anyone really know how hard the game, or hitting 20 dingers is?). Wieters has gone below Buster Posey, which I can understand, but also Victor Martinez and Joe Mauer, and I am not so sure about that. Plus, at 26, the backstop is entering his prime on an improving team with a decent manager. I think he will return a lot better than the sixth round he has generally been selected.

Matt Harrison (P, TEX): Over the past two seasons, Harrison is 32-20, 3.33 over 399 innings with 259 whiffs and a 1.269 WHIP. Yet, no one seems to want to take him before Round 14 or so. He is just 26 and on that Rangers team that not only scores runs, but is pretty good at getting the right stuff out of their pitchers. Go figure. I think he is worth a lot more. I am happy to grab him in the tenth round or so.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia (C, BOS): OK, he is the slowest guy in baseball. Even Billy Butler could cream Salty in a foot race, but Salty can hit with some pop as his .222-25-59 season over 405 at-bats last year suggests. True, he is not a great on-base guy, but if the backstop gets a chance to really play regularly, he should settle down at the plate and increase his on-base totals along with all of his other offensive stats. He is among the last catchers nabbed in most of my mocks, barely rating as a #1 catcher, and he is a lot better than your average #2. I mean, who is better at this point, Saltalamacchia or Derek Norris? 

Carlos Quentin (OF, SD): Quentin is almost an afterthought, probably because of injuries the past couple of years, but in the couple of leagues where I got him around Round 18, there were numerous "damns" echoed via chats and emails. Well, though his playing time has been limited the past three years, half of his hits have gone for extra bases. Last year, over 284 at-bats, Quentin assembled a .260-16-46 line, or just 13 fewer RBI over 121 fewer at-bats. He is clearly worth the gamble, as every guy logs a full season every once in a while despite himself. Even Rich Harden. Just make sure to handcuff him to a reserve guy who either plays or has a chance to play as much as possible.

From the Mastersball family to yours, we wish you all the best this holiday season.

Our present to you is a six-pack of yoo-hoo to be opened next October.

Feliciations, and I hope you and your family had a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday and respite.

I spent the bulk of the long holiday completing our annual Top 250 Prospects List, which is now available to all of our Platinum Subscribers.

So, today we will look at the Top 10 Prospects for 2013.

There are a few caveats. First, the list is generally geared more for Dynasty and Ultra Leagues. So, while names like Jurickson Profar are in the Top 10, and even expected there, perhaps Clayton Blackburn was not anticipated among the elite.

When analyzing players, I look at primarily at power and strike zone command. For hitters, that means strikeout-to-walks, and extra-base hits, while for pitchers it again means strikeouts-to-walks, and strikeouts-to-innings pitched.

Additionally the ability to compete in these categories at the highest possible level, and the youngest possible age, suggests the player will develop those skills not only faster, but also with increasing skill as a result of age and experience.

So, the list is weighted to youth. As an example, Texas outfielder Leonys Martin scored #243. Along with Jed Gyorko (#213), they are the only players on the list to be 25-year olds on Opening Day 2013. However, had the Cuban transplant been signed and worked through the system such that he produced the same numbers at age 23, that would have made Martin a Top 15 player. So, there is a fine line which means Wil Myers at #32 is not such an overt travesty.

It does mean that the difference between Myers and #7 Dylan Bundy is .83 of a point. Which is nothing.

I can say that this year's final 250 is a lot cooler than before, as I added a comment line of basic stats for each player in addition to the basic small set of numbers we provide. Second, there are 19 Zen Picks highlighted on the list. These are players that for some reason jumped out at me when I took a closer look at their skill set after the algorithms had been run.

Doing this proved to be interesting, for I noticed there are large chunks of players with very similar profiles. Maybe that should have been expected, but it made it such that suddenly certain players with dominanting strikeout-to-walk totals, or fantastic extra-base hit totals, took on new depth and I highlighted accordingly.

Again, you can have the complete 250, with comments and special picks by becoming a Platinum Subscriber. However, you can download a free Top 50 Prospects (note this list just contains player, rank, age, bat/throws, and franchise information).

So, without further ado, here is this year's Top 10 (age list is age on Opening Day 2013).

1. Cody Buckel (P, Texas, 20): Buckel was the #3 pick  last year after dominating Hickory with 8-3, 2.61 numbers that included 120 strikeouts over 96.2 innings (27 walks, 83 hits). Starting 2012 at High-A Myrtle Beach (5-3, 1.31), Buckel then moved on to AA Frisco going 5-5, 3.78. He struck out 68 in the hitters owned Texas League over 69 innings, which shows great poise for first timer at that level. Pitching is iffy, as Deolis Guerra (#183 this year, but #1 in 2009) and Carlos Zambrano (#1 in 2001 and 02) show. Still, the Rangers #2 pick in 2010 has control relative to his age that is too good to ignore. At least statistically.
2. Oscar Taveras (OF, St. Louis, 21): Tavares scored #6 in 2012 on the heels of his .386-8-62 totals over just 303 at-bats at Quad Cities in the Midwest League. Tavares made the jump to AA Springfield in 2012 and handled the advance with the statistical applomb of .321-23-94 with 37 doubles and 42 walks to 56 strikeouts. 
3. Jurickson Profar (SS, Texas, 20): #1 last year on the Top 250, Profar made his presence known with a home run his first at-bat in the major leagues. .281-14-62 2012 numbers were in line with his 2011 at Hickory (.286-12-65) totals. The 37 2011 doubles and 26 at AA (last year) suggest 20-homer power, as the 23 2011 steals to 16 in 2012 say the same about swipes. Profar will force the Rangers to have to move Ian Kinsler somewhere else on the diamond, probably in 2013.
4. Tyler Skaggs (P, Arizona, 21): Drafted in the first round of the 2009 draft by the Angels, then swapped to Arizona as part of the Dan Haren deal, Skaggs was #16 on the last year 250. That was following his 9-6, 2.96 totals earned between High-A and AA. This year found Skaggs starting again at Mobile (5-4, 2.84), then advancing to AAA Reno (4-2, 2.91), and finishing the season Chase Field going 1-3, 5.83 over six starts and 29.1 major league innings. If Skaggs does not make the Opening Day roster in 2013, it won't be long before he is a member of the Diamondback rotation.
5. Taijuan Walker (P, Seattle, 20): Walker was #4 last year based upon his very strong 6-4, 2.89 totals at Clinton, and this year Walker moved to AA Jackson. On the surface Walker took a hit with 7-10, 4.69 totals, but the 118 strikeouts he nailed over 126.2 innings, to 50 walks and 124 hits are pretty good for a then 19-year old. Walker will likely start 2013 back at Jackson, but I suspect a year older and wiser he will master that level and be on the road to Safeco by year's end.
6. Joe Ortiz (P, Texas, 22): The Rangers are clearly rich with three guys in the Top 10, and reliever Ortiz could be the next closer depending upon the long term prospects and role for Nelftali Feliz (#1 on the Top 250 in 2010) and Joe Nathan (no spring chicken). Ortiz has 278 minor league strikeouts to 62 walks over 276.2 innings, with 232 hits allowed and 28 saves. In 2012 Ortiz began the year at Frisco (1-2, 2.35 with four conversions) and then moved up to AAA Round Rock (1-1, 1.97 with two more saves). For the year that made 2-3, 2.15 totals over 60.2 innings, with 52 strikeouts to nine walks, and 57 hits allowed. That is a pair of hitters leagues and a 52/9 whiff to walk ratio. Killer numbers they are.
7. Dylan Bundy (P, Baltimore, 20): An auspicious premiere season for the Orioles first round selection in 2011, with Bundly climbing three levels starting with Delmarva (1-0, 0.00 over eight starts and 30 innings), then 6-3, 2.84 innings over 57 more innings at Fredercik before climbing to AA Bowie where the righty was 2-0, 3.24 over three more starts. Those are totals of 9-3, 2.08 over 23 starts and 103.2 innings, with 119 strikeouts to 28 walks with 67 hits allowed (0.916 WHIP). Expect him at Camden sometime in 2013.
8. Clayton Blackburn (P, San Francisco, 20): San Francisco's 16th round selection in 2011, Blackburn was 3-1, 1.08 over 33.1 Rookie Ball innings after being drafted, then 8-4, 2.54 at that Sally League in 2012 over 131.1 innings at Augusta. Blackburn punched out 143 over the season while walking 18 and allowing 116 hits (just three homers). Obviously watching the jump to AA is the thing for 2013, but if he continues Blackburn is the kind of sleeper our list reveals.
9. Jonathan Singleton (1B, Houston, 22): Singleton scored #48 on the list last year after combining to go .298-13-63 split between Clearwater (Phi.) and Lancaster (Hou.) at High-A. Singleton's change of venue was a result of the Hunter Pence swap, Singleton spent 2012 at AA Corpus Cristi with .284-24-79 and 27 doubles, along with a pretty solid 88 walks (131 whiffs, .386 OBP). Singleton could easily wind up the Astros first sacker by the end of 2013.
10. Miguel Sano (SS, Minnesota, 20): A Profaresque-like player, Sano hit .258-28-100 with 28 doubles as a 19-year old in the Midwest League in 2012. Add 80 walks to 144 strikeouts (.376 OBP) and the potential is obvious. If Sano keeps it up, expect a major league arrival as soon as second half of 2013, just like Profar. Worst case is 2014.

Here we are, back for the November eiditon of the Hotpage, where tradition dictates I write some words about what I saw at the Arizona Fall League (AFL) last week.

As usual, there are players we seek to see--this Billy Hamilton in particular--but I try to go and watch as much in a vaccuum, reporting on what I see.

For the second straight year, there was really very little pitching that was worth mentioning, but one guy I did like--one of three Giants who impressed me--was Jacob Dunnington, a 6'2", 160 pounder who hails from Redmond, Washington, giving him a pair of commonalities with Tim Lincecum (beanpole and home). I only saw Dunnington go one inning, but he easily whiffed a pair of Salt River hitters, then coaxed a ground out from Anthony Rendon. Drafted out of high school, the 21-year old Dunnington played as high as Double-A Richmond this year (0-0. 1.76 over 18 innings) and has career totals of  9-4, 2.64 over 119.1 minor league relief innings. The right-hander has 161 strikeouts to 70 walks and 72 hits and looked as dominant as those numbers.

Speaking of Rendon, the Nationals first round pick last year, who signed too late to play in 2011, played at four levels this season going .233-6-12 over 133 at-bats, reaching as high as Double-A Harrisburg (.161-3-3 over 21 games) before being dispatched to the AFL. The third sacker had a nice two-for-three day with a walk against Phoenix early in the week, then roped a triple as part of a two-for-four game against Scottsdale, adding to his .395-0-11 AFL line. The big problem for Rendon is Ryan Zimmerman, still just 28, plays ahead of him.

Rich with prospects, Washington also has outfielder Kent Matthes, a fourth round pick from University of Alabama in 2009. After handling Class-A Modesto last year (.334-23-95), Matthes struggled with the jump to Double-A Tulsa this year (.217-17-40), although strikeouts haunted him both seasons with 22 walks to 80 whiffs both years. Matthes hit .260-4-14 for Salt River this year, and I saw him twice where he struck out five times--one by Dunnington--while walking twice, however, he also showed a deadly arm in right field and that was enough to make me want to track.

I only saw the Brewers Josh Prince for one game, but it was indeed a convincing viewing, as the shortstop went two-for-three, with a pair of walks, scoring twice, and knocking in another with a double. Prince, among the leaders of the AFL in offense (.385/.495/.543 with eight swipes) was a third round selection of Milwaukee out of Tulane in 2009, went .251-7-55 with 28 doubles and 41 swipes. Most impressive for Pince this year however, is the seriously improved plate discipline that resulted in 74 walks to 107 strikeouts at Double-A Huntsville in 2012 his best numbers since rising from rookie ball in 2010.

For the third straight season I saw Grant Green, Oakland's first round selection out of USC in 2009, and this time unfortunately Green looked like a lost man. Three years ago, as a 22-year old shortstop, Green was impressive enough coming off a .318-20-87 season at Stockton, and last year he looked better in Phoenix, learning the outfield after logging .291-9-62 totals at Double-A Midland. And, though Green moved up to Triple-A Sacramento and hit .296-15-75 there in 2012, this time he was playing second base and looked weary as a result. Whether this was the result of the long seasons, or his position shuffled, I am not sure, but I saw him go 0-for-eight, with only one ball hit into the outfield. I think maybe a trade and a new start for Green,who will be 25 on Opening Day 2013, without a set position in Oakland, might be the best course unfortunately.

I was not familiar at all with San Francisco third sacker Chris Dominguez, drafted now no fewer than three times (17th round in 2005 by Texas, by the Rockies in the fifth round of 2008, and finally by the Giants in the third round of the 2009 draft out of University of Louisville), but I am now. Dominguez went three-for-four with a homer, and a pair of singles and runs the first game I saw him, then went one-for-four two days later with a single, but also walked, got on via an error, stole a base and scored a run against Surprise. With 83 walks to 447 strikeouts, plate discipline has to be a concern for SF, but Dominguez does have .261-55-270 totals over 426 minor league games with 39 swipes. He went .247-3-25 over 43 games at Triple-A Fresno in 2012, but struck out an alarming 47 times to just a pair of walks, but I really liked what I saw at the dish, on the bases, and in the field of Dominguez.

Another fellow who was new to me was Scottsdale (via the Angels) Randal Grichuk, a first round pick of Los Angeles in 2009 out of Rosenberg, Texas. Just 21 last August, the right fielder hit a pretty solid .298-18-71 at the California League this year, with 30 doubles and 16 steals, although again 52 minor league walks to 261 strikeouts is of concern. He did walk twice, and singled once scoring a pair of runs the day I saw Grichuk, but what was really great was the fantastic throw he uncorked to nail Corey Dickerson--who is not exactly slow--going from first-to-third on a Jose Gonzalez single (that actually scored Rendon). 

Closing with the second arm I liked, it actually belongs to Dellin Betances, the 6'8", 260 pound right-hander who has been so balleyhooed, but who also struggled this season with 6-9, 6.44 totals over 131.2 innings split between Double-A Trenton and Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. In fact Betances earned a sip of coffee (6.75 over 2.2 innings) at Yankees Stadium this year. However, I saw the big guy toss two innings--one frame each appearance--Betances looked great, striking out a pair and retiring all six hitters he faced.

Here we are again, at the end of another baseball season.

Actually, this would be my 17th, writing in this space about the game and fantasy and as I like to say, trying to make some sense of the game on the field, and in our heads, and, well, some kind of cross section of the two.

Before we get into the nuts and bolts of this week's topic, the Hotpage will be taking the next month off, returning in early November with a look at the AFL and my XFL draft. In December and January we will have winners and losers of the winter meetings and Rule 5 picks, as well as the Top 250 prospects.

But, I will continue with Bed Goes Up and Extra Points, and of course you can continue to track our terrific football coverage supplied by Ryan Carey, Greg Morgan, Marc Meltzer, Perry Van Hook, and of course Lord Zola as we all try to make some sense of the gridiron as well.

OK, so housekeeping aside, the last couple of weeks I looked at some guys I like going into next year, so let's finish the season with five guys whom I think will be overpriced and will experience a correction of their statistics.

Since it has been such a gratifying season for baseball locally, let's start with the Athletics, who have done so well drawing off their rookie pitchers like A.J. Griffin, Jarrod Parker, Dan Straily, and Tommy Milone. And, I have to think that among these guys, Milone is more than expendable. The 25-year old, copped as part of the Gio Gonzalez swap during the off-season last year, did have pretty good minor league totals of 37-22, 3.05 with 505 hits allowed over 516.2 minor league innings. And, even in a pitching environ, like the O.co Coliseum, Milone has fared well with 7-4, 2.68 totals over 14 home starts to 6-6, 5.17 on the road and 15 starts.

However, Milone's second half dropped to 5-4, 4.31 with 89 hits allowed over 71 innings, while the lefty's first half totals were 8-6, 3.57 with 103 hits allowed over 108 innings. More important, in July Milone was 2-1, 4.95 over his past month of play. Now, he is a rookie, with 179.1 innings, but Milone does not throw over around 89 MPH and I think the league largely caught up to him by the end of 2012. One thing about Billy Beane's young arms is they indeed can pitch, but similarly they have to be very fine to succeed. So far Milone has gotten by nicely with 13-10, 3.86 totals but I am seeing an up-and-down Joe Saunders future for Milone. Which is ok, but rarely worth more than $4 in a deep AL format, and maybe good enough for a sixth starter slot in an NFBC format.

Moving across the bay to the Giants and their surprise of 2011, I have the same fears for Ryan Vogelsong, who was untouchable going into August, when though he did go 4-2, his ERA ballooned to 6.32 for the month, and in September things have falled worse, with 1-2, 8.66 numbers. Vogelsong did start the season on the DL, and has twirled 179.2 innings this year, just about what he did last year, though the difference is betweem 17-7, 2.71 in 2011, while this year is 13-9, 3.58. The question is again whether wear and tear is what is getting at Vogelsong, although there have been rumors in SF that the Vogelsong emergence--with three extra miles on his fastball--might be of the same ilk they sent Guillermo Mota, Melky Cabrera, and Bartolo Colon off to never-never land this season. Vogelsong did look ok on Friday, bringing his fastball to 93 MPH while earning his first win of the month, but still he was not overpowering and I do indeed sense the league has caught up to Vogs.

I am not sure if it is a no-brainer here, but just where did A.J. Pierzynski's 2012 come from? Signed before the start of 2012, returning to the Pale Hose, AJ has had the best offensive year of his career, with 26 homers, tying at present his best in RBI at 74, along with a best OPS of .828 at age 35. On the other hand, Pierzynski tied his career high in strikeouts at 72 at press time meaning he is swinging pretty free right now. I am guessing, irrespective of anything else, AJ hits no more than 15 dingers next year, in fact I am betting Tyler Flowers will creep past the vet as the starter. But, there will be those who see those 26 taters and very little else and as a result will be disappointed.

Curtis Granderson has indeed flourished with the Yankees since signing with the club in 2010, and though he does have 39 big flies this year, his RBI total is down 24 from last year, his doubles are down nine from last year, triples down seven, and stolen bases down 16. Granderson has 14 fewer walks than in 2011, but has 14 more strikeouts as I write, and I suppose one question is whether the Yanks pick up the $13 million option for next season. In reality, that is a pretty good buy in the majors, and though Granderson is still just 31, those numbers make me nervous. I do think Granderson will hit 25 dingers, and maybe drive in 70 or so, but his 32 drop in batting average, and 44 point drop in OBP make me want to let someone else manage this risk.

Finally, the Bucs--like the Orioles, Athletics, and Nationals--are just a great story this year. And, the Pirates have some interesting young players, but I would be beyond cautious with 30-year old closer Joel Hanrahan. Hanrahan does have 36 conversions, in line with the 40 he nailed last year, but Hanrahan's ratio has expanded to 1.253 from 1.049 of 2011. And, while Hanrahan has done well keeping the hits down to just 37 over 56.2 innings, his walk total shot up to 34 (with zero intentional), meaning his strikeout-to-walk ratio is less than two-to-one. In contrast he was almost four-to-one in both 2010 and 2011. So, those indicators just make me nervous.

What it boils down to is any of the above guys could be a good acquisition for 2013, but just err on the side of caution with all, allowing other owners to take the risk, or better, trading now while their value is high.

That will be it for now. Thanks so much for hanging for another season of the Hotpage, and may your teams all be winners.

See you in a month!

Here we are again for Part II of guys I like going into 2013. Next week we will finish off the the regular season with five guys who make me nervous going into 2013, and then the Baseball Hotpage goes into winter mode.

We cover that winter schedule next week because to start I want to discuss Tyler Flowers.  It does, as a rule, seem to take catchers longer to get the hang then other position players. And, the reason is that they must pay attention to managing pitching first, then focus at the stick. Flowers, now 26, was a 33rd round pick of the Braves in 2005 who was then swapped to the White Sox as part of the Javier Lopez deal in 2009. He has basically strong minor league totals of .275-80-315 over 535 minor league games, with an equally strong .391 OBP. True Flowers played 2012 as the back-up to the excellent A.J. Pierzynski, but a free agent, Pierzynski, might have priced himself out of a number of markets, opening a space (and, I would doubt A.J. can repeat his 2012 anyway) for Flowers, who was .234-7-13 over a career high 124 at-bats. I can just smell a Kelly Shoppach 20-homer season popping out of Flowers, though whether 2013 or 2014, I am unsure. And, Flowers value for now is still limited to pretty deep formats, but I just think Flowers is just beginning to bloom.

Boy, if I could draft one rookie pitcher in my Strat-O-Matic league this coming February, it would be Matt Harvey. The Mets first-round pick in 2010, the 23-year old out of University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, has just two seasons into his pro career (22-10, 3.48 with 268 whiffs over over 248.1 innings). With the Metropolitans Harvey has stepped up to it, with success as good as any of his hot contemporaries (think Stephen Strasburg and Matt Moore, anyway) going 3-5, 2.92 over nine starts and 52.2 innings (63 strikeouts with a 1.223 WHIP) and I think he is just going to get better, and quietly give us a wonderful career.

To give an idea of how long it can take a shiny new draft pick in the June draft to realize his skill, I selected Jeff Samardzija in the XFL after the Cubs drafted him in 2007. Samardzija actually made the team in 2008 and did pretty well going 1-0, 2.28 over 27.2 innings that year, and I activated the right hander on my XFL team as a $1 keeper the following year. Since Samardzija pitched over ten innings I would have had to make a decision whether to freeze or lose for that is the minor league keeper threshold in that league. Needless to say, I did not freeze him after his 1-3, 753 2009, and the following year (2-2, 8.38) he languished in the free agent pool all year. Then, in 2011 buoyed by an 8-4, 2.97 season, Samardzija  put it nicely together this year, with 9-13, 3.81 totals over 174.2 innings (180 whiffs) and those are numbers just good enough to point to a nice future and still be a bit under the radar of most owners. I wish I could have sat on him all those XFL years, though.

OK, Harvey should be on the radar of most fantasy players, and actually Samardzija likewise should have some followers. But, as with Flowers, Norichika Aoki is not the kind of guy to generate huge interest. Maybe a $2 pick in NL only formats this year, and even a later reserve pick--if that--in NFBC-style set-ups, Aoki barely seemed to have registered a bleep. But, the 30-year old import is presently hitting .286-8-42 over 451 at-bats, with 30 doubles, 24 swipes, and 68 runs scored. Those are actually very nice numbers and I would think he can repeat, if not improve upon them a little, in 2013. Look down your nose if you want, but what difference would 24 steals make in your standings somewhere as a reserve pick this season?

Somehow Billy Beane and Bob Melvin have pulled just about every string right this season, and I think the team's acquisition of shortstop Stephen Drew will prove to be a move the team benefits from next year as he goes into his contract season. Injured for much of 2011 and into 2012, when Drew was last healthy he generated .278-15-61 with an .808 OPS, and what looked to be a career that would be moving up. I think that Drew will come back for next season and help drive Oakland, their great pitching, and almost great outfield back as a competitive force.

Now again, the pitchers noted are not really cheap players, but among Drew, Aoki, and Flowers, all three could be reserve picks--again if selected at all--in an NFBC format, and would still be cheap gambles in Al or NL only formats. And, taking advantage of players who cost nothing, and just return $5-$7 in profit is how you win. Hence, I like these guys.

As the season winds down, there are likely very few free agent players who can be grabbled by your team for a last minute push, and chances are even making a trade would be tough to do, even if allowed at this juncture.

So, I will spend the last couple of weeks looking at some players I think might still be out there in shallower leagues, but who also might make interesting picks for the 2013 season. Which of course means if you can swap for them now, or pick up during the off-season in a keeper format.

Let's start with a trio of local players, going first with catcher George Kottaras, just recently an Athletic.  Still just 29, Kottaras has never really had an opportunity to start, and with Derek Norris on the bench the backstop might still be in largely a platoon role. Still, since being in Oakland--not necessarily a hitter's paradise--Kottaras is .222-5-16 over 50 at-bats, posting a killer .578 slugging average and .878 OPS. Kottaras has a solid enough 88 walks to 134 strikeouts (.324 OBP) and .221-23-81 numbers over 552 career at-bats. That is just abourt a season full, and they point to nice production with a regular full time gig.

Looking to the other side of the bay, let's take in the Brandons, starting with Brandon Belt, the Giants first baseman. In his first full year in the majors, Belt started pretty slow, hitting .278-0-5 over just 36 April at-bats, then .203-0-9 over 64 in May. In June Belt's power finally kicked in with .296-4-15 numbers but in July the 24-year old relapsed with .186-0-4, but since has kicked it into gear with .349-0-7 and then .368-1-4 totals over August and September, respectively. Belt has .272-5-47 totals with 23 doubles and 48 walks to 93 whiffs (.360 OBP). I have said this before--and it will likely come up again in this column--but the third year is when guys like Belt really get the hang. Look out for him to kick it up a level next year.

Next there is shortstop Brandon Crawford who is already among the best defensive shortstops in the game. Too bad that only matters in venues like Scoresheet and Strat-O-Matic, but Crawford has surpassed expectations by hitting .248-4-41, with 23 doubles over 386 at-bats. Crawford has bumped his OBP to .306 although his walk to strikeout numbers dipped from last year (23/31) to 29 walks and 81 strikeouts. Still he has patience, and is a line drive hitter and I would expect, again going into a full third season, Crawford will establish himself with numbers around .260-8-65 with potentially ten swipes. In an NL only format you should be able to score him for a couple of bucks, meaning the $7-$10 he earns will be handy. Better, I think he will get even better--and consistant--as he moves into his fourth and fifth seasons.

Lorenzo Cain was pegged as the Royals center fielder of the future when he was acquired by Kansas City as part of the Zack Greinke swap, but spent 2011 largely in the minors, and then spent a lot of this year on the DL. After hitting .269-2-7 over 52 minor league at-bats Cain came to the KC and has hit .260-7-28, although his .239-2-8 August was a struggle, he has .270-7-27 second half numbers with nine swipes (no CS). Cain will get a full 2013 as the center fielder on a team that is seriously on the rise.

I am not too sure if Mark Reynolds really belongs on this list with the rest of the younger guys, although Reynolds is still just 29, but the dude is red hot of late, with .318-9-17 totals over the last two weeks with a convincing 10 walks to 13 strikeouts, and an incredible OPS of 1.399. For the season Reynolds is suddenly .234-21-59 with 23 doubles (now that seems to be a trend) and though he has 63 walks--not to far from last year's 75--the third baseman has dramatically reduced his strikeouts to 131, 60 less than last year, and also good for a .352 career high OBP.

Here we go into the final month of the season, the traditional end of summer with Labor Day, and of course, roster expansion. So, first off, I have to wish you all the best of holidays, be you tending to food on the bbq, hanging with friends or family away, or just sitting at home watching baseball or movies or whatever makes you happy.

With both the Giants and the Athletics in town the first of this week, I will get some time at the yard as the Angels and Diamondbacks start the week in the bay area, but I have to start this week with the promotion--and debut--of the Rangers Jurickson Profar. What can we say about the kid who debuted yesterday, cracking a homer his first major league swing, then notching a double his second at-bat. Profar, just 19 (and almost one-half) scored #1 in this year's Top 250 Prospect List and though the word was the young middle infielder's advancement was to augment the bench, if he hits like he did in his first game, the Rangers will simply have to find regular playing time for him. If nothing else, you want him on your reserve list for the future.

Before we jump to a cluster of call-ups, one arm you might want to review is that of the Rockies Jhoulys Chacin. Chacin, coming off two pretty good seasons as a key cog in the Colorado rotation, was beyond terrible over five starts (0-3, 7.30) and 24.2 innings this year, but after a demotion, and more important time on the DL with a bad arm, Chacin has come back strong, going 2-1, 1.50 over three starts and 18 innings. If you need a stretch starter Chacin could be on the waiver wire, or might even be available from another team on the cheap based upon his awful first half numbers and disposition.

Back to the prospect, the Astros called up Jimmy Paredes, a 23-year old who looked like first the next third sacker (Paredes played 44 games there at Minute Maid last year). Going into 2012 it was suggested Paredes could become the shortstop, and then the second sacker, but instead the Stros sent him down to play the outfield. The Dominican did log 102 games at second, but another 21 in the outfield, and for now has been installed in right field for Houston. As a minor leaguer Paredes logged .289-36-239 numbers, with 115 doubles and 150 swipes. The down side is Paredes can be a free swinger (86 walks to 386 whiffs) but he will get a chance and does have the contact/speed game on his side. And, well, Houston has nothing to lose by giving Paredes a shot.

The Phils brought forth pitcher Tyler Cloyd, a 18th round selection of the team in 2008, who slowly moved up the ranks of the minors culminating with a year started at AA Reading (3-0, 1.80) and then finished up at Lehigh Valley (12-1, 2.35) putting together a fine year of 15-1, 2.26, with career totals of 46-22, 3.27 over 632.2 innings (92 starts, 135 total appearances). Cloyd did pretty well striking out 509, and allowed 603 hits, but also had two interesting totals of just 144 walks, and just 51 homers. It is hard to tell if Cloyd has what it takes to keep it going in the Phillies starting rotation, but he certainly can pitch. And, as with all the names on today's list if you need an end of season boost and gamble, well, there you go.

The Cards promoted their 21st round pick of 2009--plucked from obscure Cowley Community College in Arkansas City--Trevor Rosenthal. With two years of minor league service, primarily as a starter, Rosenthal is 22-14, 3.57 over 285.1 innings, with just 237 hits allowed. Further, Rosenthal has 293 strikeouts to 98 walks (1.174 WHIP) and just 15 big flies allowed. Pushing for the post season, Rosenthal is probably not going to get a start (his five appearances so far are all in relief), and more to the point with names like Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller as the hot young arms, Rosenthal is sort of overshadowed. That makes him the best kind of quiet acquisition. Further, I really like his potential as a set up guy of the best order.

Another middle relief arm worth a look belongs to the Cardinals chief NL rivals, the Cubs, in Jeff Beliveau. Picked in the 18th round in 2008 by the North Siders, Beliveau has 165 minor league appearances in relief (14 as a starter) over which he has posted 21-14, 2.86 numbers, with 407 strikeouts over 314.2 innings. The lefty allowed 244 hits and 140 walks (1.220 WHIP) over that span, all solid numbers, and posted ten saves over 49 finished games. The 25-year old is probably not a closer in waiting, but he has pretty good control and like Rosenthal could be a good under-the-radar pick who can eat some innings and get some whiffs and even bag a win or two.

The Twins Chris Parmelee was the team's first round pick in 2006, having since produced .273-91-419 with a solid .365 OBP and .820 SLG over 715 games. Last year, while Justin Morneau was down, Parmelee hit a solid .335-4-14 over 21 games, but struggled this season during his big league time (.218-3-9 over 44 games). Still, at New Britain this season, Parmelee hit .338-17-49 over 64 games with a terrific 51 walks to 52 strikeouts. Morneau is signed through next season, but the Twins, as with so many other squads, need to figure out a healthy path to the future. Parmelee, 24, has to figure in those plans, and could get some regular at-bats the last month of the season and give some pop.

The Tigers have 21-year old Venezuelan Avisail Garcia who seems like a potential big time slugger with a 6'4", 240 pound frame. Garcia has minor league numbers of .281-37-242, with 73 doubles, and an amazing 72 swipes: a lot for a big guy. Unfortunately Garcia is also a strikeout machine, having whiffed 451 times, or one of every four at-bats, while obtaining just 79 free passes. I fear he is one of those Carlos Peguero guys, though, who simply won't show enough power at the big league level to merit a roster spot.

The Pirates have some interesting things going, and though Chase d'Arnaud does not look like any kind of shortstop of the future, Brock Holt, a 9th round pick of the Bucs in 2009 out of Rice, could well be. Holt is .317-11-150 over 371 minor league games, with 87 doubles, 49 swipes, and a good 144 walks to 206 whiffs (.381 OBP). Holt has played 107 games at short this year (98 at Altoona, and nine at Indianapolis) and at 24-years old, looks to be a good part of the Pittsburgh future.

What an odd week, with the strange housecleaning by the Red Sox front office.  Which is where we will start with a few thoughts on the crazy swap.

First, trades are clearly best viewed in hindsight: this we all know. And, at the time Milt Pappas for Frank Robinson did not seem outrageous. For Pappas, then 26, had been 110-74, 3.24 over nine seasons, only pitching less than 200 innings once between 1959-65 (177.2 in 1961).

Still, salary dump or not I just don't get it. First, I am not a fan of Bobby Valentine (see my Bed Goes Up of last Saturday) but just looking at the two main chips--Adrian Gonzalez and James Loney--it is hard to imagine what Boston was thinking. Over seven years, Loney--at a power spot--has averages .282-13-82 with a .342 OBP over a 162-game average.

Agone, who is 30 to Loney's 28, has nine years under his belt with .294-30-104 with a .371 OBP, and 38 doubles to Loney's 30 two-baggers a year. This year Gonzalez is .299-16-89 with 37 doubles, while Loney is .254-4-33 with 18 doubles.

Advantage Los Angeles.

Next, let's look at a couple of pitchers: Rubby De La Rosa, and Josh Beckett. Beckett is 32, and struggling to be sure. He is 32, 5-11, 5.23 over 127.1 innings. He was 13-7, 2.89 over 193 innings last year, and since 2004 has twice stumbled as he has this year, always to rebound. Not that Beckett will, but going to a contending team, in a pretty good pitcher's park, where he does not have to be the #1 guy has to be a boon. And, the guy has been a National League pitcher already, so, ideally he makes the transition and helps his team this year. And, maybe 2013 and even 2014, when he is 34, and his contract is done.

Now, I love Rubby De La Rosa, but if there are question marks concerning Beckett and the future, de la Rosa is coming off TJ surgery. He was 4-5, 3.71 over ten starts in 2011, though with a 1.40 WHIP.

And well, I have to give a slight edge to LA for this one, too, mostly because Beckett is established, though the 22-year old de la Rosa is tantalizing, though I would not be surprised if the young pitcher has a decent career, I am mostly thinking it will not really kick into gear for a couple of years, so again I give the edge to LA.

Oh yeah, that Carl Crawford guy got traded as well, giving the Dodgers a potential outfield of Crawford, Andre Ethier, and Matt Kemp.

On the other hand Boston got Ivan De Jesus and Allen Webster, and Jerry Sands (a serious prospect), while everyone's favorite utility player, Nick Punto, went to L.A.

Now, Boston did chop some salary for sure, and Sands and de la Rosa could be pieces of some kind of different Boston team, but for now the Dodgers have become a potential power house.

However, there is also that fantasy perspective, and if I can get my hands on any or all of the troika of Loney, Beckett, or Agone for the bulk of this season, I certainly would. As Steve Moyer of BIS points out "...any major league quality player can do anything for a month. Hell, how far-fetched would it be if Loney was the best player of all of them from here on out? Not likely, but certainly possible."

And, Steve is dead on right. If you are in an AL or NL only format, do what you can to get the new members of each respective league. Use them or trade them, but you must go after them. Especially at this time of year.

Another guy I would take a look at is the Athletics new shortstop, Stephen Drew. Coming off a solid 2010 (.278-15-61) where the most important stat was the then 27-year old logged a career high .352 OBP--19 points better than his previous full season best. And then the Drew family curse of injuries nailed him in 2011, and again this year. But, with Drew at short, moving Pennington and Rosales to try and pick up the slack for disappointing Jemile Weeks. If nothing else, like LA, Oakland is doing what they can to pull the contention strings, and I like this move. Again, in an AL format that is deep, I would not think twice about taking a shot on Drew at this point of the season.

While we are in Oakland, if Brett Anderson is available, I would similarly jump all over him to fill out my pitching staff.

 And, back to Arizona, who let go of Drew, take a hard look at Tyler Skaggs, the first round pick of the Angels in 2009, traded to the Dbacks as part of the Dan Haren deal of 2010. Skaggs big number was tossing 439 strikeouts over 389 minor league innings, with 113 walks to 338 hits (1.15 WHIP). At 9-6, 2.87 this year, split between Mobile (AA) and Reno (AAA). Skaggs had a good first start holding Miami to three hits and two runs, with four whiffs to five walks earlier in the week. In what I guess is a recurring theme, it is gamble time so Skaggs is certainly interesting. And, his role for this season is still unclear. Still, worth the gamble.

In the same vein, the Mets Collin McHugh makes an interesting end of season selection. An 18th round pick in 2008, McHugh has a 31-23, 3.32 mark over 105 starts and 521 innings, with 520 whiffs with 165 walks and 492 hits allowed (1.26 WHIP). McHugh has moved up pretty much a level a year, with a short stumble at St. Lucie last year (1-2, 6.31), the 25-year old rebounded at AA Binghamton to go 8-2, 2.89 over 16 starts and 93.1 innings. This year split between Binghamton and AAA Buffalo the righty was 7-9, 2.88 over 24 starts and 143 innings, with 132 strikeouts to 44 walks and 120 hits (1.142). Those are good numbers (and they are minor league ones).