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Saturday 21st Oct 2017

Week 6 marks the first week of the 2017 NFL season where we have a whole bunch of games that are lopsided on paper. Just remember, they do not play the games on paper. The Texans, Patriots, Falcons, Ravens, Redskins, and Broncos are all favored by a touchdown or more. Past history tells us that at least one of them will suffer an upset. But from a DFS perspective, these high point spread, mostly high projected totals offer several stacks to consider.

Brady-White-Hogan, Watson-Hopkins-Fuller, Ryan-Freeman-Jones, Cousins-Pryor-Reed are all viable stacks on the favorite side. But do not overlook McCown-McGuire-Kearse and Hoyer-Garcon from the underdog side.

But the stack I like the best comes from the highest Vegas total game on the board this week: Brees-Kamara-Thomas. With AP out of the picture, Kamara figures to be on the field for all the passing situations and should get enough carries to easily earn his cheap price. Michael Thomas has been very good but has yet to have that real signature game. Brees has at least 27 completions in three of four games. The Saints defense is bad enough (in spite of shutting down the Dolphins) that the Lions are almost certain to keep this game close, forcing the Saints to continue to try and score. 

With so many favorable options, there is no need to try and outthink the game as the ownership already figures to be spread out.

QB Tom Brady NE 8300 Among highest projected team total
QB Aaron Rodgers GB 7300 Always a good chance for three TDs - cheaper than Brady
QB Drew Brees NO 7200 This is still a pass-first team
QB Kirk Cousins WAS 6800 SF secondary getting abused
QB Deshaun Watson HOU 6700 Hottest QB on the planet right now
QB Matthew Stafford DET 6500 Shootout with NO
QB Josh McCown NYJ 5200 Patriots having trouble on defense. Very cheap.
         
RB Kareem Hunt KC 8200 I am finally in this week. Fournette abused Pitt
RB Melvin Gordon LAC 7800 Virtual guaranteed volume
RB Javorius Allen BAL 5400 Looks good if West sits
RB James White NE 5200 Primary pass catching back
RB Duke Johnson Jr. CLE 5100 Break-out PPR season
RB Elijah McGuire NYJ 4600 Better without Forte
RB Alvin Kamara NO 4500 Price set before AP trade
RB Jerick McKinnon MIN 4100 Inconsistent but saw some volume without Cook
         
WR DeAndre Hopkins HOU 8100 Great chemistry with Watson
WR Keenan Allen LAC 7900 Always gets the targets
WR Michael Thomas NO 7300 Looking for big Brees game
WR Chris Hogan NE 7000 Emerged as the number one receiver
WR Mike Evans TB 6900 Price is enticing
WR Jarvis Landry MIA 6600 If Parker is out, where else do they go?
WR Michael Crabtree OAK 5800 With Cooper invisible, the targets go his direction
WR Davante Adams GB 5700 Severely underpriced
WR Terrelle Pryor Sr. WAS 5700 Everyone is burning SF
WR Will Fuller V HOU 5200 Another one with instant chemistry with Watson
WR Jermaine Kearse NYJ 4800 McCown-Kearse stack?
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 3600 The best cheap option
         
TE Jordan Reed WAS 5000 Could post big numbers if healthy
TE Hunter Henry LAC 4100 Big TD target
TE Cameron Brate TB 3900 Great rapport with Jameis
TE George Kittle SF 3400 Coming off a big game
TE David Njoku CLE 3000 Strong red zone target
TE Demetrius Harris KC 2800 Cheap option if Kelce still concussed
         
DST Texans HOU 3900 Tough without Watt, but this is Cleveland
DST Ravens BAL 3700 Trubisky figured to throw some picks
DST Jaguars JAX 3600 Been monsters on defense
DST Falcons ATL 3500 Chance to blow out Dolphins at home
DST Buccaneers TB 2600 Palmer is not what he used to be
         
QB Drew Brees NO 7200  
RB Kareem Hunt KC 8200  
RB Elijah McGuire NYJ 4600  
RB Alvin Kamara NO 4500  
WR Michael Thomas NO 7300  
WR Davante Adams GB 5700  
WR Terrelle Pryor Sr. WAS 5700  
TE Cameron Brate TB 3900  
DST Buccaneers TB 2600  
      49700  

When my wife woke me up early Monday morning to tell me about the horrific shooting in Las Vegas, my immediate thought was “I could easily have been there.” As our hearts go out to the families and friends of the victims and prayers for all the survivors, playing fantasy football feels so insignificant this week. 

About five years ago, my kids (both now in college) got this 80’s classic rock guy into new country music and I have been hooked ever since. My car radio is constantly tuned to XM 56 The Highway to hear all the new country music. I drag my wife (who is not a country music fan) or my daughter (who is at an age where it is not cool to be out with her dad) to country music concerts whenever they will go.

I also go to Las Vegas every year with my college roommate from 35 years ago to draft fantasy football teams in the NFFC and watch opening week of the NFL season in the best place in the world for football. I even dragged him to see Justin Moore two years ago during our Vegas trip.

So if the Route 91 Harvest Festival was three weeks earlier, I can just about guarantee that I would have been there. And the thought of that makes me reflect on how grateful I am for everything I have, including the opportunity to drift away once a week to write this column about fantasy football. 

So as you are watching the games this weekend and rooting for the players on your fantasy teams, think about how fortunate you are to be able to drift away into a fantasy world. I know that I will.

QB Aaron Rodgers GB 8100 Should be back and forth with Dallas
QB Russell Wilson SEA 7100 Rounding into the form we expected
QB Dak Prescott DAL 6800 See Rodgers
QB Ben Roethlisberger PIT 6400 Big Ben is gold at home
QB Philip Rivers LAC 5800 Rivers always seems to have big game at low price
QB Jay Cutler MIA 5200 The Dolphins can't be this bad
         
RB Le'Veon Bell PIT 9500 This is a good week to spend up at RB with value at WR
RB Ezekiel Elliott DAL 8800 I like the $700 discount from Bell
RB Leonard Fournette JAX 7000 Might keep Jax in the game
RB Bilal Powell NYJ 6200 Finally, the Powell we expected with Forte out
RB Christian McCaffrey CAR 5700 Still waiting for the "big" play
RB Duke Johnson Jr. CLE 4900 Getting it done through the air for Cleveland
RB Alex Collins BAL 4000 Best back in Baltimore if he can hold on to the ball
RB Wayne Gallman NYG 3900 May be a week or two early, but watch out
         
WR Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 8500 Not only is he great, he is also tough
WR Antonio Brown PIT 8400 Squeaky wheel gets the grease
WR A.J. Green CIN 8200 Better with no OC
WR Jordy Nelson GB 8100 More targets if Adams does not go
WR Keenan Allen LAC 7200 Very consistent targets when healthy
WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 6800 Getting massive targets with David Johnson out
WR DeVante Parker MIA 6600 I am going all in on Dolphins stack this week
WR T.Y. Hilton IND 6000 Nice spot even with marginal QB
WR Jarvis Landry MIA 5800 Did I say I was going all in on Dolphins this week?
WR Tyrell Williams LAC 5300 Deep threat scores touchdowns
WR Cooper Kupp LAR 4500 Not quite consistent targets yet, but catches everything
WR JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 3500 Earning significant playing time
         
TE Zach Ertz PHI 6200 The best tight end on the regular Sunday slate by far
TE Jason Witten DAL 4200 Could see major usage in the back and forth affair
TE Martellus Bennett GB 4100 See Witten
TE Evan Engram NYG 4000 Good rapport with Eli
TE Hunter Henry LAC 3800 Tight ends kill the Giants
TE Tyler Kroft CIN 3200 Nice cheap fill-in
         
DST Steelers PIT 3900 Gold if they stop Fournette
DST Seahawks SEA 3500 Tough matchup but playing well
DST Bengals CIN 3300 Bills offense has been scaring very few
DST Eagles PHI 3100 Palmer takes sacks
DST Browns CLE 3000 Kizer turns it over
         
QB Jay Cutler MIA 5200  
RB Ezekiel Elliott DAL 8800  
RB Christian McCaffrey CAR 5700  
WR DeVante Parker MIA 6600  
WR T.Y. Hilton IND 6000  
WR Jarvis Landry MIA 5800  
TE Evan Engram NYG 4000  
TE Hunter Henry LAC 3800  
DST Steelers PIT 3900  
      49800  

So what has happened to all those guys that were pimping the return of the running back all off-season? “Need to draft high running backs” is all I heard in the months leading up to fantasy draft season. Where is all that talk now? I know that things can change and only two weeks have gone by, but David Johnson is already hurt, LeVeon Bell is not among the top-25 scoring running backs and Ezekiel Elliott did not exactly light up the scoreboard in Week 2. The top 25 is littered with household names like Ty Montgomery, Chris Thompson, Tarik Cohen, Javorius Allen, James White, Terrance West, Jalen Richard and Shane Vereen. The moral of the story – it made no sense to pay up for running backs in season-long drafts and it does not really make sense to pay up for running backs in daily right now either. There are plenty of viable running backs on DraftKings this week that are under $6k.  Choose wisely.

QB Aaron Rodgers GB 7300 Should start piling up Rodgers-like numbers
QB Matt Ryan ATL 7100 Very high floor. Running game limits ceiling
QB Derek Carr OAK 6800 Highest total - off to a solid start
QB Jay Cutler MIA 6100 Like Carr last week, Cutler should post good numbers vs. Jets
QB Kirk Cousins WAS 6100 Will have to pass to keep up with Oakland
QB Andy Dalton CIN 5100 High-risk flier is much better than first two games suggest
         
RB LeVeon Bell PIT 8800 Bears may be just what the doctor ordered
RB Kareem Hunt KC 8000 No denying he has been the best so far
RB Jay Ajayi MIA 7700 Everyone is running wild on Jets
RB Ty Montgomery GB 6900 High volume so far
RB Devonta Freeman ATL 6700 Falcons offense has been balanced so far
RB Christian McCaffrey CAR 6100 Underperformed but Saints get everyone well
RB Tarik Cohen CHI 5600 When in doubt, roster backs that have a good pass-catching floor
RB James White NE 5400 Been the primary pass-catching back in a high-powered offense
RB Chris Thompson WAS 4500 The best Redskins back so far
RB Darren Sproles PHI 3900 Higher than expected workload
         
TE Travis Kelce KC 6000 Tight ends hit hard by injury last week
TE Zach Ertz PHI 5000 Finally off to a strong start
TE Delanie Walker TEN 4400 Still the best receiver in Tennessee
TE Hunter Henry LAC 3900 Fighting for his share with Gates
TE Jack Doyle IND 3600 Only usable Colts player so far
TE Zach Miller CHI 3000 Good punt option at tight end
         
WR Julio Jones ATL 9300 Still hasn’t scored - due for the explosion soon
WR A.J. Green CIN 8100 Call this a gut feel with the change in coordinators
WR Mike Evans TB 7500 Tough matchup but still the top dog in Tampa
WR Michael Crabtree OAK 7400 Proving more reliable than Cooper
WR Michael Thomas NO 7000 Saints will be playing from behind again
WR Golden Tate DET 6900 Lions possession receiver
WR Jarvis Landry MIA 6800 Talks of his downfall were overblown
WR Chris Hogan NE 6100 Proving to be a better option than Cooks
WR Terrelle Pryor Sr. WAS 5900 Cousins will need to pass to keep up with Raiders
WR Martavis Bryant PIT 5700 Strong comeback so far
WR Davante Adams GB 5600 Why is Adams so cheap?
WR Nelson Agholor PHI 4200 Almost posted a goose egg last week but ended up scoring
WR Geronimo Allison GB 3000 Low-end option if Nelson or Cobb are out
         
DST Patriots NE 3800 Big favorite against rookie QB
DST Dolphins MIA 3700 It's the Jets
DST Broncos DEN 3600 Buffalo has not scared anyone
DST Steelers PIT 3400 Defense playing week not facing lowly Bears
DST Browns CLE 3000 Browns are favored on the road
         
  MY LINEUP SO FAR      
QB Kirk Cousins WAS 6100  
RB Ty Montgomery GB 6900  
RB Tarik Cohen CHI 5600  
WR A.J. Green CIN 8100  
WR Terrelle Pryor Sr. WAS 5900  
WR Davante Adams GB 5600  
TE Jack Doyle IND 3600  
FLX Chris Thompson WAS 4500  
DST Dolphins MIA 3700  

Hello 911. I would like to report a missing person. Amari Cooper, currently of the Oakland Raiders. The 6’1’’ 210 lb. wide receiver from Alabama was last seen dropping another pass in the first half against the Redskins last Sunday night. He has not been seen or heard from since. Cooper’s fantasy owners demand an explanation for the hands of stone – was he spending too much time counting his money after being the 4th overall pick in the 2015 draft? Does he not get along with quarterback Derek Carr? What exactly is the problem? Cooper averaged over five catches per game in 2016 and was a logical selection to take the next step towards being an elite NFL wide receiver. But something happened. There is no way that any top NFL wide receiver can play virtually every snap of a game where his team is passing almost every play yet end the game with ONE catch for SIX yards. Please send out a search party for Mr. Cooper. Hope you can find him uninjured in time to show up for Sunday afternoon’s contest with the Broncos.

QB Tom Brady NE 8000 Highest priced QB and rightfully so
QB Matt Ryan ATL 7400 Consistently very good
QB Carson Wentz PHI 6600 Lots of weapons getting the job done
QB Marcus Mariota TEN 6400 Dangerous throwing or running
QB Philip Rivers LAC 6300 Eagles defense has been far from stellar
QB Jameis Winston TB 5900 I see a shootout with the Giants
         
RB Le'Veon Bell PIT 8700 Has not been Le'Veon-like so far - expect low ownership
RB LeSean McCoy BUF 8400 Falcons not great against RBs
RB Todd Gurley II LAR 7800 Great so far
RB Devonta Freeman ATL 7300 Guaranteed touches
RB Christian McCaffrey CAR 6800 Expect high reception volume again
RB Leonard Fournette JAX 6700 Could get 30 carries for 150 here
RB Dalvin Cook MIN 6500 Heavy workload
RB Bilal Powell NYJ 4600 Forte expected to be out
RB LeGarrette Blount PHI 3900 TD flier
         
WR Antonio Brown PIT 9300 Tough to fit in - but consistently excellent
WR Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 8900 Finally appears fully healthy
WR Julio Jones ATL 8800 Don't want to miss the 8-210-2 game
WR A.J. Green CIN 8600 New OC got Green more involved
WR Mike Evans TB 7400 Did I say shootout?
WR Keenan Allen LAC 7200 Another very consistently very good player
WR Demaryius Thomas DEN 6300 Can post numbers equal to the top guys
WR Larry Fitzgerald ARI 6100 Palmer always looks his way
WR Emmanuel Sanders DEN 6100 Second fiddle to Thomas is not a terrible spot
WR Chris Hogan NE 6000 Heavily involved and always open
WR Pierre Garcon SF 5500 Not a good matchup, but will be forced targets
WR Martavis Bryant PIT 5400 Strictly a flier for a big game
WR Eric Decker TEN 4200 Cheap red zone target
WR Taylor Gabriel ATL 4100 Another low end receiver with knack for end zone
         
TE Rob Gronkowski NE 6600 Healthy through three games
TE Zach Ertz PHI 6300 21 catches already
TE Delanie Walker TEN 4900 A little banged up but very cheap
TE Cameron Brate TB 3800 Involved and tops over Howard
TE Charles Clay BUF 3700 Inconsistently good
TE Ryan Griffin HOU 3500 The only TE in town
TE Jared Cook OAK 3400 Been the good Cook so far
         
DST Jaguars JAX 3600 Jags defense has been great so far
DST Steelers PIT 3500 Gets the lowly Ravens
DST Bengals CIN 3500 vs. Browns rookie QB
DST Jets NYJ 2600 Bortles always good for a couple of picks
DST Browns CLE 2400 Dalton has been beatable
         
QB Marcus Mariota TEN 6400  
RB Christian McCaffrey CAR 6800  
RB Leonard Fournette JAX 6700  
RB Dalvin Cook MIN 6500  
WR Pierre Garcon SF 5500  
WR Martavis Bryant PIT 5400  
WR Eric Decker TEN 4200  
TE Delanie Walker TEN 4900  
DST Jaguars JAX 3600  
      50000  

My apologies for missing Week 1. With hurricane Irma bearing down on Florida and a pending trip to Las Vegas to draft our NFFC teams, the Hotpage was overcome by events. Having lived in south Florida for nearly 30 years, putting up hurricane shutters has become a routine event. Fortunately, my family and home made it through the hurricane with only some down tree branches. 

I was able to make it out to Vegas last Wednesday ahead of the storm for our annual trip to participate in live NFFC drafts. As always, Greg Ambrosius and Tom Kessenich were great hosts for the event. From the Thursday Gridiron auction/draft with Buffalo Wild Wings sponsorship to the live drafts on Friday and Saturday, the events were first class. If you ever have the chance to spend a NFL Sunday in Las Vegas, the new theatre in the Westgate is the place to go, with 1,500 movie theatre style seats and the biggest TVs you can imagine. 

We were “stuck” in Las Vegas for a couple of extra days due to the storm, but thanks to Jet Blue holding a connection just so 12 of us could make a connection was a first class gesture. Now onto the hotpage:

QB Tom Brady NE 7900 Underperformed in Week 1 - Saints make QBs look good
QB Drew Brees NO 7700 Pats looked bad against Alex Smith
QB Aaron Rodgers GB 7400 GB-Atl is the highest total on the board this week
QB Derek Carr OAK 7200 How much will he throw against the Jets?
QB Jameis Winston TB 6300 Itching to play - the Bears are not good
QB Jay Cutler MIA 5400 More of a deep pass threat than Tannehill
         
RB LeVeon Bell PIT 9800 Stinker in Week 1 - was a DFS stalwart last season
RB Devonta Freeman ATL 7300 Strong run-catch-TD combo
RB Kareem Hunt KC 6800 The HOT rookie
RB Jay Ajayi MIA 6400 Very moderately priced
RB Dalvin Cook MIN 5900 The second HOT rookie
RB Ty Montgomery GB 5800 Saw plenty of touches in Week 1
RB Christian McCaffrey CAR 5600 Might go under the radar behind Hunt and Cook
RB Bilal Powell NYJ 5000 Surprisingly lost touches to Forte last week
RB Kerwynn Williams ARI 4800 The winner of the David Johnson injury lottery
RB Tarik Cohen CHI 4100 Great numbers in limited touches
RB Chris Thompson WAS 3800 Very involved in the Redskins offense
         
WR Antonio Brown PIT 9400 The only high-priced Week 1 player who produced
WR Julio Jones ATL 9200 Nice matchup with GB
WR Brandin Cooks NE 8200 Number one target with Edelman out
WR Amari Cooper OAK 8100 Great matchup for early game stats
WR Mike Evans TB 7700 Bucs big play receiver
WR Michael Thomas NO 7500 Should post big numbers against weak Pats secondary
WR Michael Crabtree OAK 7100 Caught everything in sight in Week 1
WR Tyreek Hill KC 6200 Chiefs had him very involved in Week 1
WR Davante Adams GB 5600 Packers offense moved the ball against good Seahawks D
WR DeVante Parker MIA 5400 Looks like Cutler's favorite target
WR Adam Thielen MIN 5000 Appears to be a PPR machine
WR Pierre Garcon SF 4900 Seeing a ton of looks
WR Cooper Kupp LAR 4100 Looks like the Rams best receiver
         
TE Greg Olsen CAR 5500 Cam will get him back in the game this week
TE Zach Ertz PHI 5300 Did not disappoint as Eagles best receiver
TE Delanie Walker TEN 4700 Started slow, finished strong
TE Hunter Henry LAC 3600 Invisible in Week 1 - will be under-owned in Week 2
TE O.J. Howard TB 2900 Impressive looking rookie at low price
         
DST Cardinals ARI 4100 Colts are bad without Luck
DST Ravens BAL 3700 Best Week 1 D gets Cleveland in Week 2
DST Raiders OAK 3500 Do I have to tell you that the Jets are bad?
DST Titans TEN 3300 Slow down Fournette, force Bortles to pass
DST Buccaneers TB 3200 Bears have no wide receivers
         
  MY LINEUP      
QB Drew Brees NO 7700  
RB Jay Ajayi MIA 6400  
RB Tarik Cohen CHI 4100  
WR Brandin Cooks NE 8200  
WR Davante Adams GB 5600  
WR Michael Thomas NO 7500  
TE O.J. Howard TB 2900  
RB Chris Thompson WAS 3800  
DST Raiders OAK 3500  
      49700  

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