This past week, I participated in three of Howard Bender's (@rotobuzzguy) #MockDraftArmy, and this week my experiment was to test a draft spot against league depth. So, I signed up for three--10, 12, and 15-team drafts of 25 rounds. Since I drew the middle of the first draft, I chose to draft in the middle of all three, though I must confess, that is among my least favorite drafting slots.
And of course, before you review the list, some observations:
1) I do tend to grab the same players because, well, I think they will perform well.
2) It seemed logical to load up on more pitching earlier in the 10-team format, figuring there were less good and dominant starters out there than hitters.
3) Even in the 12 and 15-team formats, I did grab a starter early, but in the 12-teamer, I then went for hitting for a long run.
4) I waited until just about the end of the 12-team, and to the end of the 10-team draft to grab saves. Since there are indeed 30 teams, if each league member grabs two, in those leagues there should be some saves to play with now, and some out there when the season begins that no one anticipated.
5) Though I do indeed draft players I like, i was also more willing to take some chances in the shallower formats, figuring with a phat reserve pool, it would be much easier to fix a production problem.
|Round||Player (overall) 15-Team||Player (overall) 12-Team||Player (overall) 10-Team|
|1||Arenado, Nolan (7)||Kershaw, Clayton (7)||Arenado, Nolan (6)|
|2||Cespedes, Yoenis (24)||Freeman, Freddie (18)||Syndergaard, Noah (15)|
|3||Springer, George (37)||Cespedes, Yoenis (31)||Kluber, Corey (26)|
|4||Kipnis, Jason (54)||Davis, Khris (42)||Cespedes, Yoenis (35)|
|5||Carrasco, Carlos (67)||Carpenter, Matt (55)||Carpenter, Matt (46)|
|6||Melancon, Mark (84)||Miller, Brad (66)||Archer, Chris (55)|
|7||Herrera, Kelvin (97)||Piscotty, Stephen (79)||Davis, Khris (66)|
|8||Duffy, Danny (114)||Duffy, Danny (99)||Miller, Brad (75)|
|9||Miller, Brad (127)||Hendricks, Kyle (103)||Kipnis, Jason (86)|
|10||Ray, Robbie (144)||Herrera, Odubel (114)||Santana, Carlos (99)|
|11||Belt, Brandon (157)||Travis, Devon (127)||Piscotty, Stephen (106)|
|12||Vogt, Stephen (174)||Gausman, Kevin (138)||Ray, Robbie (115)|
|13||Margot, Manuel (187)||Andrus, Elvis (151)||Kiermaier, Kevin (126)|
|14||Gray, Jon (204)||Ray, Robbie (162)||Gattis, Evan (135)|
|15||Travis, Devon (217)||Neris, Hector (175)||Ozuna, Marcell (146)|
|16||Estrada, Marco (234)||Crawford, Brandon (186)||Jankowski, Travis (155)|
|17||Devenski, Chris (247)||Vogt, Stephen (199)||Crawford, Brandon (166)|
|18||Gyorko, Jedd (264)||Ottavino, Adam (210)||Vogt, Stephen (175)|
|19||Bandy, Jett (277)||Cervelli, Francisco (223)||Manaea, Sean (186)|
|20||Pillar, Kevin (294)||Jankowski, Travis (234)||Ottavino, Adam (195)|
|21||Souza Jr., Steven (307)||Devenski, Chris (247)||Maurer, Brandon 206)|
|22||Cobb, Alex (324)||Finnegan, Brandon (258)||Bedrosian, Cam (215)|
|23||Rosario, Eddie (337)||Santana, Domingo (271)||Devenski, Chris (226)|
|24||Finnegan, Brandon (354)||Cabrera, Asdrubal (282)||Madson, Ryan (235)|
|25||Altherr, Aaron (367)||Santana, Ervin (295)||Inciarte, Ender (246)|
You can follow me @lawrmichaels. And, you can check with @rotobuzzguy about future mocks.
As seems to be well-known, Lord Z and I drafted at the 2017 Fantasy Sports Trade Association Draft as the organization held its annual winter conference in Music City, Nashville, Tennessee.
Todd already has made some comments that are a pretty good assessment, accessible via our Platinum Package and you can view the results here. I suspect most of the motivation behind our selections has largely been covered, as in this post-draft discussion with Joe Pisapia and Dan Strafford on their FNTSY radio show.
But, instead of looking at my team, or shock/surprise picks, I want to simply look at my favorite selections: You know, the players when their name comes up you think to yourself, "that was a nice pick."
1.3 Nolan Arenado (Mastersball): I don't really mean this as #Humblebrag because this was our first pick, but it seems such a no-brainer, for as noted, take away steals--on which we can fade a bit--and Nolan is indeed the best hitter over the past two years. No disrespect to Mike Trout or Mookie Betts, or even Paul Goldschmidt. All we need is a repeat performance.
1.13/1.14 Josh Donaldson/Corey Seager (BBHQ): Ray Murphy and Brent Hershey picked at the fun and sometimes lean wheel, and got the perfect pairing of Donaldson and Seager, commanding some great potential numbers on the left side of their infield. With a first rounder, you are ostensibly hoping for roughly $35 of value, and this duo collectively should indeed return the $70 and maybe a little more.
13.8 Elvis Andrus (Sirius-XM): OK, so we are into a new golden age of shortstops, but Ray Flowers grabbing a guy who hit .302-8-69 with 24 steals, 75 runs, and a .362 OBP in the 13th round when the player is just into his prime years. Eeek.
15.1 Nomar Mazara (Fantistics): Mazara is a big (6'4") left-handed hitter that Anthony Perri wisely picked, for the rookie, not yet 22, dropped down 20 big flies in his first season, and though he only walked 39 times to 112 strikeouts, this is not a bad contrast for a player so young. He could be a 30-homer guy as soon as this year, and even if Mazara repeats last year, those are some nice numbers to get at this stage of the draft.
16.7 Stephen Vogt (RotoWire): We all know catcher sucks, so why does a guy who averages .255-17-68 fall so far down? Nice grab Jeff Erickson.
18.1 Devon Travis (BBHQ): Once again Brent and Ray make a fine pick with Travis, who has a career line of .301-19-85 with 46 doubles and 92 runs over 163 games. That is like a season, so theoretically Travis stays healthy and gives us something like those totals? Such a deal.
20.2 Didi Gregorius (Fantasy Scout): Mark Bloom, AKA Dr. Roto, made a nice grab with Didi, who is learning to become a good hitter, and in that sense reminds me a lot of the Ozzie Smith/Omar Vizquel smart slick fielding shortstop who becomes a fine hitter. But I doubt any of us expected the .276-20-70 mark with 32 doubles, as the shortstop delivered last year.
23.8 Kyle Barraclough (FNTSY): Andrew Miller went as the last selection of the 8th round, while team Cardano/Meaney grabbed the Marlins reliever 202 picks later. No doubt how good Miller is, but Barraclough did whiff 113 over 72.6 innings, or 14 per nine (14.9 for Miller), and while I am not sure how long Miller can continue, I suspect Barraclough can get better. Relative to their draft spot, that makes Barraclough a steal.
24.6 Greg Bird (NFBC): I thought Bird was the word in New York last year, but now the first baseman, who was injured last year, could come out of those ashes to be the new Mark Teixeira, and Greg Ambrosius knew it.
29.2 Jordan Zimmermann (Colton and the Wolfman): A great last crapshoot by Stacie, Glenn, and Rick on a guy forgotten and/or written off by the rest of us. At this point, nothing to lose in a shallow league by making such a sharp pick of a good arm.
Follow me @lawrmichaels.
A new baseball season is indeed upon us, and that means it is Mock City for me, for though I have already participated in a good half-dozen baseball mock drafts, the two-time a week drill of Howard Bender's (@rotobuzzguy) #MockDraftArmy is what really puts me through the paces to make me feel prepared for any type of draft or auction of any format.
So, this past week Howard and his beleaguered minions kicked off the first drafts of the week, and there I was. If you follow along to this virtual space, you will note that last week I provided some thoughts about the value of the mock process and though I will go through some of my thoughts and rosters throughout this pre-season, it will be mostly to reveal what team I wound up with drafting under some obscure parms, like picking at the wheel and grabbing a pitcher with each turn, or some such investigative silliness.
For my first tour of duty, I did get the 12th selection in a 12-team 5x5 mixed format. Since this format affords a fatter free agent pool, I did try to grab homers and strikeouts early, and waited till nearly the end to take closers (remember, if each team takes two closers, that is 24, and there are 30 Big League teams, so you can stall there). But, what did surprise me is just how late some players went, which i will discuss below. Here are the results of #MockDraftArmy #1.
Mock #2 was tougher, with 15 teams, and me drafting in the 11th hole. Again, i tried to focuse on getting one or two dominant starters early but still make sure I had some power and also take care of closers as early as permitted. Here are the results of #MockDraftArmy #2 and a thought about where the same pick identified for the first draft fell when three more teams were gutting the player pool.
Note that both drafts went 25 rounds.
Khris Davis (6.1/5.11): I actually took the Athletics slugger in both leagues, hoping he can at least hit the 30-home run mark. I do like Davis, but I listed him here to contrast with another slugger whose game surprised us last year. Davis was a lot more selective in the second half, for even though his average during the first and second halves were pretty much the same, Davis jumped his OBP from .284 to .332, improving his whiff-to-walk numbers from 87/11 to 79/31.
Adam Duvall (18.1/10.2): Wow, what a drop from Davis to Duvall, huh? I will admit I am dubious of a repeat of 2016, but though the Reds outfielder's pop dropped from 23 homers in the first half to 10 in the second half, his OBP (.306) jumped nearly 20 points and his strikeout-to-walk rate improved from 94/16 to 70/25. Apparently no believers.
Carlos Gomez (19.7/10.9): This guy was first round material between 2012-15, but considered twice as valuable when three more teams were thrown into the mix? The shallow league does not trust the Texas numbers, and the deeper league has to? Hmmmmmmmm.
Dansby Swanson (17.7/12.1): OK, three shortstops here. You figure this out? Swanson is .302-3-17 over 129 total big league at-bats.
Brandon Crawford (22.1/15.13): .259-52-346 over 2681 at-bats coming off a second straight strong season with 84 RBI in each.
Marcus Semien (24.6/14.2): Averaging .246-20-63 with 11 steals over the past two years over 314 games. I mean, both these last guys are under 30 still, so why does a guy with no resume to speak of get picked over them?
J.A. Happ (20.4/20.6): Clearly no one is buying into the Ron Bryant/Storm Davis of 2016. But, two picks later in the deeper draft. Wow.
Chris Carter (23.3/13.5): A ten-round difference is just as weird, as had the first mock been a 23-rounder, Carter would have been a final-round gamble.
Matt Wieters (22.5/15.10): I feel vindicated. Back when Wieters was entering his rookie season, I did a Scoresheet dynasty Mock and Wieters was a second rounder. I commented on how foolish I felt it was to draft an untested player that early, and was largely corrected that I did not know how to assemble a dynasty team. So, I feel vindicated. Kinda. Still, hard to think Mock #1 thought more highly of Wieters than Carter?
You can follow me @lawrmichaels.
Since football is winding down, and we are just a month shy of pitchers and catchers reporting, the hard core mock draft season for Fantasy Baseball comes into play. I have already participated in a good half dozen, and have shared some of those results with you. In fact, last week Todd, Perry, and I did the Couch Managers Xperts of which Perry and Z are addressing within the Platinum Pages.
But, as the days towards Spring Training and the draft season fall upon us quickly, practice in Fantasy might not make perfect, but it does help a lot. I personally will be participating in as many of Howard Bender's (@rotobuzzguy) #MockDraftArmy as much as I can, and Howard makes most of these public, so you can indeed hit him up and see about joining. There is also Couch Manager, and of course if you are an NFBC fan, they drive a lot of mocks, almost daily. Of course there are more, but these are just a few suggestions of places to go to get your draft chops down.
So, this time, I want to make some suggestions not just on why mocking will up your game and edge, but even some tactics I have messed with to help with my world view of the player pool. Of course, you too might have ideas about tricks you like to employ, so feel free to share either here, or tag me @lawrmichaels.
1) Practice a lot: Participate in as many mocks as you can. I do somewhere between 10-15 and by the end I have a good sense of the player pool, the flow, and my perceived value of players as opposed to that of others.
2) Try things: Last year, I made some kind of pick at some point and one of the participants sort of blurted out in the chat "bad pick at this point you will not win like that." As casually as I could, I responded "this is a mock, and that means pretend and it doesn't count. If ever I were to experiment this is the time." "Oh yeah" the guy responded. It is true. And, any angle you can wrangle. For instance, I drafted a football team last year predicated upon taking the best pick I could first, and then drafting totally around the one bye week of that player. The results were both interesting and a lousy team. But, if you wonder how teams like this will work, the mock is the perfect environ.
3) Know the pool: This goes hand-in-hand with a lot of practicing, but the more you mock, the better you know the pool, and the better you know the pool, the easier it is to both draft and more important, adjust. Nothing in a draft ever really goes as planned anyway, so the best way to plan for this is via experience. So, experience with as many different formats as you can before it counts.
4) A pox on ADP, and...Personally, I have no use for ADP. However, knowing when your opponents will or might draft a player is excellent tactical information to know. I do try to build my teams based upon the combination of players whom I think will produce the results I seek, but knowing that if I like Kyle Hendricks, I might want to know how far I can push without getting sniped.
5) Trust your instincts: Clearly, playing any game requires the skill of knowing the components and rules in order to produce an outcome. That said, there are always a number of moments, many pivotal, within any given contest in which our inner voice is telling us the path. Listen to that voice, and trust it. Don't depend upon it, or get overly enamored if those hunches pay off, but do indeed listen.
And, above all, have fun.
You can find me @lawrmichaels.
Hall of Fames are indeed goofy things. Hell, all awards are. Were they not, the Beatles would have more Grammys than the Starland Vocal Band (and note, the one Grammy the band earned was for movie soundtrack for "Let It Be"). That should be enough to convince all of us that rewarding creativity and longevity, let alone overall artistry of the best at any discipline is a hazy affair.
I wrote about my own decidedly prejudicial thoughts last week in this space, and similarly have written about the Rock'n'Roll HOF at sister-site The Remnants of Rock, a locale dedicated to examining music--particularly roots rock--driven by my mates Peter Kreutzer, Gene McCaffrey, Steve Moyer, and me where I discussed my dismay at the enshrining of Deep Purple last year.
Though I have not yet been to the Rock'n'Roll Hall, as noted, I have been to Cooperstown a couple of times. In fact, in a few weeks, Diane and I will be in Nashville attending the FSTA Winter Conference, and I am looking more than forward to going to the Country Music Hall as part of the soujourn.
The first time I was in Cooperstown was when I discovered that the Baseball Hall, founded in 1939, was essentially the first of its ilk, sponsored by the Clark family. In the vicinity of the Cooperstown Hall are the Knitting (who knew?), and Boxing Halls, and in addition to Canton and Naismith, a bunch that might be designed to preserve the history of a given art or sport. But, they may also be run in order to make money.
But, popularity also seems to factor in. For example, I cannot imagine KISS as an all-time great band, but I guess the generation after me has a differing opinion. But still, while I can see Jorge Posada as a Hall member, it is kind of a stretch as is Jeff Kent, but not so much Larry Walker, who did have a solid career, and some killer years. But so did Deep Purple have a pair of radio hits that apparently elevated the band's stature in the world of contributing artists.
This year, Journey was nominated to the Rock'n'Roll HOF, which is totally out there to me. For at least there are statistical criteria for baseball, in which Freddy Sanchez, on the ballot this year, is more worthy of Hall induction than either Journey (name a great album the band completed) or Deep Purple (same).
But again, whether it is the crochet hook or Michael Jordan's poetry in the air or Brett Favre's rifle arm, or even Ellis Valentine's...Well, wait, maybe those other guys belong but does Valentine? Well, as I suggested last week, it is all not only subjective, but open to the frailties, likes, and dislikes of us human beings.
And, well, it is one thing to decry the inclusion of Andre Dawson or Jim Rice in lieu of Dwight Evans or Bill Buckner, but sorry, neither Deep Purple nor Journey ever made it to an equivalent of 200 homers, let alone 2000 hits, or 200 wins and whiffs. Take it whatever way you wish. But, the entrance criteria for anyone into any given HOF is, well, as wacky as the folks who follow the music or the sport in the first place.
Now, thank you for indulging me. Next week, I will get back to something that really matters. Baseball. Or, maybe football. Or, could be golf.
I submitted my Hall of Fame votes for the Internet Baseball Writers of America Association (IBWAA) last week, and though we can vote for up to ten players, I only voted for a couple.
Somehow the Baseball HOF is one of those great examples of perspective, like politics and religion, where we are all experts, and know all there is to know about said subject. But, just as we can despise or adore Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton, the same can be said about Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, and Curt Schilling, all members of this year's nominee list.
And, these arguments are as old as the Hall, which I have visited twice during induction weekend. And the arguments pro and con as to who should be enshrined is as polar as Trump/Clinton, though those diametrics have been going on for a lot longer than the recent election.
For example, I wonder if Pete Rose is verboten, why Ty Cobb is still in? Or, why Jim Kaat, who led the league in wins in 1966 with 25, who won a total of 283 games, and who won a record 16 Gold Gloves is not in the Hall? Tommy John, who won 288 and has the iconic surgery named for him belongs, while Darrell and Dwight Evans, along with Bill Buckner, Al Oliver, and even Steve Garvey deserve some consideration.
And, you might sneer at Darrell Evans, but at the time he retired he was a Top 10 all-timer in RBI and walks, and was the oldest guy to hit 40 homers and the only guy to hit 40 homers in each league. As for Dwight, his numbers are not that far off from his teammate Jim Rice and Dewey's defense was the best in the game in right. But, if Rice, or Andre Dawson get the nod, these guys all made contributions as great in my view.
Of course, that is my view, and I am indeed an expert when it comes to the world of Lawr, just as you are the unchallenged expert in your universe.
But, choosing who deserves it among Bonds, Schilling, and Clemens is weird, for I feel strongly that Bonds does indeed belong, but I would not vote for either Clemens or Schilling, mostly because aside from being as intransigent as Pete Rose, I don't like either. But, I am willing to forgive Bonds' HGH use because I figure even if Barry hit an extra 200 homers thanks to juicing, he still hit more dingers than anyone else.
I do indeed understand that my rationale is completely flawed and hypocritical, for I like Bonds because he is a Northern California guy, but I understand fans outside the Bay Area having the same disgust for Bonds as do I for Schilling and Maddux.
The thing is I like it that we are all experts and are right, at least with respect to baseball, which is a game, and is a source of pleasure and much more of an outlet as a rule than religion or politics, and any of you calling me an idiot for supporting Kaat and not Jack Morris are probably correct.
It is, however, this subjective insanity that exists for each of us baseball fans that sends the what ifs of a baseball game into further stratospheres of wonder and imagination than does any other game or sport.
And, that is why I similarly don't endorse Instant Replay, or challenges to calls, for the ruling of the arbiter of the base, in the moment, is good enough for me. I understand sometimes those jurists of the diamond make mistakes, but as often, even with replay, it can be tough to determine exactly what the true disposition of any given play is.
But, I also think most of the time the umps get it right, and that over the long haul the good and bad breaks even out for all players and teams. And, just like I am ok with the Writers selecting the Hall's inhabitants, without question, similarly I can accept the ruling on the field.
That is because we human beings who play the game and judge the game and are fascinated by the game and argue about the game are full of the flaws that direct our lives in other strange, yet wonderfully human ways.
For we are indeed all human beings, and being one is generally a lot of fun.
As for voting, Bonds and Moose were the only human beings I felt good about (note Edgar Martinez, Jeff Bagwell and Tim Raines are already in the IBWAA HOF).
But, since I am too a human being, you can try to change my mind.
Follow me @lawrmichaels.
As we reach yet another Christmas holiday, we are similarly headed for a New Year, and that usually means it is time for my annual Top 250 Prospect List.
I have been a little slower in finishing the list up this year mostly as some post-Thanksgiving surgery has slowed me a bit, but I am in the throes of the final data scrub, editing and reviewing, which is likely to last till the middle of January when the release of the full list is projected.
But, to tantalize a little, I will present a cluster of players who achieved my sleeper status this year. Last year, when fine tuning the list, I noted the cells of the guys I thought were really worth watching in blue, and this year I have repeated the process.
Whereas in the past, it seemed the Top 250 was much better suited to players in a Dynasty format, with minor leaguers being advanced so much more rapidly than in the past, there are indeed players to mine on the big list. For example, among the players highlighted as sleepers last season were Nomar Mazara (#18), Mallex Smith (#185), Willson Contreras (#212) and Trevor Story (#241), all of whom likely made some roster contributions on fantasy squads last year.
So, as I reveal some of the sleepers for this year, please do have the best and safest of holidays with family and friends!
Luis Urias (19, 2B, Padres): .333-6-55 last season mostly at High-A Lake Elsinore, with a fantastic 45 walks to 37 strikeouts, good for a .404 OBP. Urias could indeed spend time at Petco before the end of the 2017 season. He did make a three-game show in El Paso to finish 2016, so Urias could be fast-tracked on this rebuilding squad, especially since he can play second and third as well.
Yohander Mendez (22, P, Rangers): Went 12-3, 2.19 over 111 minor league innings last year with 113 strikeouts before a brief appearance in Arlington. Mendez could indeed make the roster out of camp. He sports a 1.093 WHIP over 292.6 minor league frames, and he is a 6'5" lefty, meaning a nice downhill angle for a hard thrower.
Brent Honeywell (21, P, Rays): Arguably the best pitcher I saw at the Fall League, I wrote as such just a few weeks back, so it is not much of a surprise Honeywell did well on the list. Went 7-3, 2.34 over 115.3 innings last season with 117 strikeouts and a 1.032 WHIP.
Phil Bickford (21, P, Brewers): 7-7, 2.92 at two levels, over 120 innings with 135 strikeouts and a 1.150 WHIP. The Brewers thought enough of Bickford to get him in exchange for Will Smith.
Eloy Jimenez (22 OF, Cubs): .329-14-81 with 40 doubles at the Midwest League at age 19. Could learn some patience with just 25 walks, but only struck out 99 times and should improve with experience. And, the Cubs indeed can have some patience with their prospect.
Ramon Laureano (22, OF, Astros): .319-15-73 with 43 steals at two levels with a solid 79 walks to 119 strikeouts, good for a .428 OBP. This included a solid performance at Double-A Corpus Christi (.323-5-13 over 36 games).
Chance Adams (22, P, Yankees): Went 13-1, 2.33 at two levels over 123.3 frames with 144 strikeouts and a spectacular 0.903 WHIP. Adams finished at Double-A Trenton, going 8-1, 2.07 with a whiff an inning, so he could be ready real quick.
Victor Robles (20, OF, Nationals): Played at three levels, finishing at High-A with an aggregate line of .280-9-42 with 37 steals and a solid 32 walks to 77 strikeouts. Really quite good for a 19-year- old.
Follow me @lawrmichaels.
I have done little to hide my love for the Oakland Raiders, especially the last couple of years as the team has risen from the ashes in a Phoenix-like fashion that probably makes the Cardinals blush.
The Raiders hit me in 1962, when Cotton Davidson was their quarterback and the team played at Frank Youell Field, which was the gridiron associated then with Laney Junior College. Since I was born in Oakland and was, as also acknowledged, contrary, despite living in 49er-land, the Raiders became my team. Over the years since, I moved from the Dodgers to the Royals to the Blue Jays to pretty much the Athletics and Giants in baseball, and I have had my attractions with the Seahawks and Ravens and other teams doing a great job of rebuilding.
But my love for the Raiders has been steadfast, and for many years--like 1965-1990--Oakland rewarded me with the winningest franchise in sports. However, since losing in the Super Bowl 14 years ago, the Raiders have been among the most pathetic and rudderless of sports organizations.
This was sad to me, for I saw Al Davis grow from brilliant head coach to part owner to managing partner of the Raiders, to head of the AFL, to becoming the driving force behind the league merger over 50 years ago. And, that was indeed one of the more significant mergers in sports history, paving the way for the NFL we all enjoy today.
Davis was a smart judge of talent to be sure, but he also knew how to get the most out of the Island of Misfit players, as guys like Lyle Alzado, Ted Hendricks and John Matuszak all flourished beneath the Silver and Black and their motto of "Just Win Baby."
However, as Davis aged, and the league changed and grew and adjusted to itself--something that beautifully continues with innovations like the Patriots defensive schemes--the Oakland owner was stuck, trying to assemble a team as he had in the past, and well, wrecking the whole mess. With disasters like Jeff Hostetler and JaMarcus Russell, Oakland floundered until a few years ago, when Davis passed.
The good side of that is new thinking came vaulting into Oakland, and suddenly we have a once again exciting team with Amari Cooper and Derek Carr and Khalil Mack, to name the marquee guys.
Truth is I did expect Oakland to make the playoffs this year. In fact, I made a few bets supporting just that, but certainly I did not expect a 10-3 mark at this point, hoping the guys would do 9-7 as they improved this year, becoming a serious Super Bowl threat next year.
I still think this is true, but believe it or not, the Oakland loss to the Chiefs last week has given me some optimism that maybe more is in store for Oakland than I imagined this time.
And, though my reasoning here is Oakland specific, the example holds true for most any competitive team in almost any competitive sport. For Oakland did win six straight games--many in the final quarter, let alone minutes--which is pretty tough to do. I mean successfully doing anything six straight times is tough, let alone winning an NFL game.
So, for one, the loss pulled the streak equation out of the bag for Oakland, just as it did for the Cowboys, who also saw their 10-game winning streak halted last weekend.
Since both these teams--Oakland and Dallas--are young, I did expect that as the season wore on, the team play would tighten along with experience, making the youngsters seasoned vets by this time of year, well used to the weekly patterns of game preparation.
Furthermore, the Raiders may have been confident going into the Thursday night game last week, but the team similarly had chances they could not convert, and I am guessing this loss was both sobering, and more important, a learning experience for both the players as individuals and the team as a whole.
And that should make Oakland a better, stronger, and tougher club.
I think of my time in the IT world, especially when things were new, that we would try to solve problems in certain ways and hit a roadblock. Almost always, out of this frustration grew both a solution as well as potentially providing a solution for the future with the failed idea of today. But, mostly, I learned from this process that we learn a lot more from our failures, if we pay attention, than from our successes, and I would be sure that same opportunity affords itself to both Oakland and Dallas.
As it is, Kansas City does look tough for the Raiders to hurdle, although they now are the team trying to protect the streak. Similarly, I think the Patriots, as the best coached team, possibly ever, will be beyond tough for the Oaklanders to get by looking ahead to post-season play.
But, I also think Oakland could well surprise me beyond belief with their learnings, and come back the final weeks with confidence that makes them a hot team. For, it is the hot team that usually cashes in when the post-season arrives, irrespective of discipline.
If you remember "Bull Durham," you must remember Crash Davis' great speech about respecting the streak, and to a large degree, everything he says is correct. But, I think in this instance, the pressure is off, and maybe those Raiders can indeed come through as a Cinderella team this year, and maybe even face those equally surprising Cowboys. Wouldn't that be fun?
You can follow me @lawrmichaels.
Among all the Winter League activities, I find the Rule 5 Draft to be the most fun and interesting, and the exercise with the most possiblities, especially for fantasy speculation.
Rule 5 players are those who have been signed by a Major League team, have been under contract for five seasons, have never appeared in the Majors and are not protected on the 40-man roster. It is interesting that this year's picks are all from lower levels of play, suggesting that as prospects are advanced more quickly than in previous years, teams are going younger and the pool of places to look goes lower. The question then becomes one of experience and maturity as much as skill.
Teams who participate can take a shot, and sometimes the likes of Geronimo Berroa or Kevin Millar result. But most of the time, the lack of advancement and protection prove to be justified.
But, the trick is a team drafting a Rule 5 player must keep him on the active Major League roster--or hide him on the DL, which does indeed happen--or return the player to his original team.
This means if nothing else, there is as close to a guarantee of Major League roster time for Rule 5 guys as there ever will be for a marginal gamble. I do indeed like grabbing Rule 5 Catchers, for example, for a buck, thinking if the player pans out he will help in a deep league, and if he is marginal, the playing time stats will not hurt my numbers. And if the guy goes on the DL, well that just gives me an extra reserve guy to consider as part of my overall strategy.
So, who are the Rule 5 players this year that are of interest? Here are my thoughts on the first eight drafted, and you can check out a complete list. Also note that there are both Major League and Triple-A Rule 5 rounds, and I will be covering just the Major League portion.
Miguel Diaz (22, RHP, to Twins from Brewers): First pick of the draft, Diaz is 8-18 over 236 minor league frames, but he has 222 strikeouts to go with a 1.263 WHIP and just 11 homers alowed. The Twins can indeed use some arms, and Diaz might indeed have some talent, but he has never pitched above A-ball, so a jump to the Majors is enough of a challenge at this point.
Luis Torrens (20, C, to Reds from Yankees): Torrens is exactly the kind of guy I would grab as a #2 catching gamble in an NL-only format. With literally a full season of games (161) under his belt in the Minors, Torrens produced a line of .250-6-51, with 31 doubles and a reasonable .342 OBP (73 walks to 123 strikeouts). His .686 OPS is a bit anemic, and again, Torrens has not played above A-ball, but he will likely be a third stringer, and likely a buck, so purchasing Torrens gives you $259 to spend on your remaining 22 players.
Allen Cordoba (20, SS, to Padres from Cardinals): An intriguing selection for a team looking to youth and rebuilding, Cordoba has 206 games under his belt, with a solid .309-4-63 line that also includes 150 runs and 52 steals. 70 walks to 109 strikeouts mean a great .375 OBP, and since Cordoba can play second, third, and short, breaking him in on the bench as a pinch runner/utility player is perfect, it seems. I do indeed have a serious interest in Cordoba in my Dynasty leagues at this point.
Kevin Gadea (21, P, to Rays from Mariners): More intriguing numbers, as Gadea registered a 17-6, 2.64 mark over 225.3 innings with 228 strikeouts and a 1.167 WHIP. Like his predecessors, Gadea has spent his time at the lower levels, although again, successfully. Gadea did at least pitch at Clinton last year, going 3-0, 2.15 over 50.3 innings.
Armando Rivero (28, P, to Braves from Cubs): A Cuban import, Rivero makes a nice gamble because of his age and experience playing Cuban ball. He did throw at Triple-A Iowa last year and went 5-3, 2.13 over 43 relief appearances and 67.6 innings, earning a save amidst 12 starts. Rivero has a fantastic 303 strikeouts over 220 innings, over which he had a 1.209 WHIP. Clearly, Rivero will throw out of the pen, at least to start, and he too makes a fun gamble on a team doing good things with their rebuild.
Tyler Jones (26, P, to Diamondbacks from Yankees): Originally drafted by the Twins in 2011, Jones then went to the Braves and then Pinstripes, going 19-7, 3.55 over 296.3 innings with a solid 361 strikeouts. Jones went 6-3, 2.61 over 89.6 Double-A innings, with 116 whiffs, and could work his way into the rotation. Note that at 26, he was older than his Double-A brethren, so the numbers might be deceiving.
Caleb Smith (25, P, to Brewers from Yankees): Apparently the Yankees were younger and deeper than we thought, with this third selection from the Pinstripe repository. Last season at Double-A Trenton, Smith went 3-5, 3.96 over 63.6 innings with 70 punchouts. He had a fine 2015 at Trenton, going 10-7, 3.38 over 130.6 innings, but was torched (three runs over 4.1 innings, so small sample) at Triple-A that year, so maybe the Yanks know something that is not obvious?
Justin Haley (25, P, to Angels from Red Sox): A sixth-round pick of Boston in 2012, out of Cal State Fresno, Haley went 8-6, 3.59 over 86.6 innings at Pawtucket last year, with 67 strikeouts and a 1.123 WHIP. Those numbers are actually decent enough, but again, if Haley was that good, why didn't the Sox give him a shot in the Majors when an injury occurred, let alone protect him? That said, teams do make mistakes.
Follow me @lawrmichaels
I am having a pretty good year with my Fantasy Football teams. One squad is a solid 8-4, with two logging in at 7-5, two at 6-6, one at 5-7, and a final going 4-7-1, meaning playoffs loom for sure in three, and there could potentially be a post-season all around.
I do attribute much of this season's success to a lot of mock drafting, for among the various mocks I did--and especially Howard Bender's fantastic #MockDraftArmy--I did a good 20 mocks to precede the eight actual season long leagues in which I made selections.
So, while seven of my teams are indeed basking in the glow of potential post-seasons, my eighth team is completely finished, living in tenth place, some 39 games out of first place.
"What?" you ask yourself. "The fantasy season is usually 13 weeks, plus playoffs, and the NFL season 17 weeks, plus, so how could anyone be 39 games out of first?"
What you are asking would be correct for a standard league, but in the Kathy League Gifford, we enforce "play all", which means I have 11 matchups facing each of the other teams in the league every week. So, no squeaking by with a 125.85 to 125.65 (this one came up this season) wins or losses in this format.
Adding to the fun, in Kathy League Gifford we have the option of using two Quarterbacks each week, and also play individual defensive players, meaning each week we start 12 guys out of the 19 we draft. League Gifford is also a keeper league, and each player moves up three slots from the previous season, meaning the top three rounds of selections automatically fall back into the free agent pool the following draft season.
In the Gifford League, I have a lot of the same guys I play on my winning teams this year: Willie Snead, Theo Riddick, Michael Crabtree, Julian Edelman, Doug Martin and Sebastian Janikowski, in particular, save in Gifford, my signal callers are Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan, with Jared Goff--who will be a keeper next season--salivating on the bench waiting for an opportunity.
On my other teams, the Quarterbacks are either Cam Newton, Derek Carr or Russell Wilson, who are not bad guys, but Rodgers and Ryan are each having big years, averaging 26.5, and then 25 points respectively, so why is the rest of my squad tanking it so badly?
Well, maybe the answer is not so much in those guys tanking, as it is my average score per week in Gifford is commensurate with my H2H leagues, meaning the luck of the draw and matchup really are a lot more significant than we would like to imagine.
|League||W/L||AVG PF||AVG PA||TOT PF||TOT PA|
|Kathy League Gifford*||53-76||109.6||114.6||1315||1260.1|
|FSTA (co-managed w/Lord Z||7-5||114||109.6||1368||1315|
|Knights of the Passover Table**||6-6||80.4||90.37||965.22||1084.44|
|Sirius/XM Fantasy League||6-6||113.2||114.8||1359.4||1377.8|
|Sirius/XM Dynasty League||7-5||132.9||129.8||1595.1||1558.4|
* Total Points Against 15122 over course of play all season divided by 12 to give average.
** Not PPR
What does prove interesting is not just how close the margin of error between win and loss is in each setup, but that the smallest margin is in a league that does seem to have the most generous scoring system (note that all the leagues are similar in scoring save KLG, but there are minor differences).
Compounding the confusion is that in KLG my aggregate Points For is the second-highest positive point differential among my teams, yet that team is the worst in the standings. And, that suggests I had a couple of monster weeks accompanied by a lot more mediocre ones.
There is no question--at least to me--how much fun playing Fantasy Football is. But, as we all seem to know, there is frustration in football, as trying to assemble a winning squad, be it DFS or season-long format, can be tougher than other sports simply because the stat-base is smaller, less player positions are generally part of our teams, and less games are played.
Of course this is nothing new to any of us, and long have I preached about the goofiness of football where Napoleon Kaufman bags 60 yards of a drive, rushing, but Zack Crockett comes in to punch the ball into the end zone. For in baseball, Ted Williams was only pinch-hit for once, and no one would ever spell LeBron James or Steph Curry in the same fashion.
Still, games and numbers are fun, and well, puzzling, no?
Follow me @lawrmichaels.
The draft seasons grow longer and longer, which actually is not such a bad thing, especially if you like drafting. I happen to, and so, among the mocks and mag drafts I have done thus far pointing to 2017, perhaps the most fun and interesting was the 50-man Draft and Keep sponsored by Tim Wagner and our good friends at Fantrax.
The league, comprised of a bunch of good and successful NFBC players, is essentially following their format: 50-man drafted roster, playing a 23-man, with two roster move slots per week and no waivers or free agent pool from here on out.
Now, I have only done a couple of leagues like this, and once I finished third (with 12 teams) and the second time, sixth (with 15 squads). And, my opponents are as noted, skilled guys like Dan Kenyon, Mike Diedrich, Bryan Vogel, and of course our host, Monsieur Wagner.
Because the emphasis on such a league is truly preparing for the marathon, as opposed to walking out of the draft room with a competitive team, and adjust from there, despite the proclamations of the great Satchel Paige, we must all draft looking over our respective shoulders, in fear of ineffectiveness, or injury, or God forbid, both.
I do tend to draft power light, so I tried to focus on homers and extra-base hits, also looking somewhat at saves, but at steals, but also thinking of playing time, opportunity and flexibility.
There is not much need for me to identify all 50 picks for sure, but here are some of the guys and rounds I either liked a lot, or who gave me buyer's remorse. Note that I drafted in the 13th slot, just far enough along to have to think when it became my turn, but not quite deep enough to double up picks effectively in my opinion.
Irrespective, here goes:
1) Starling Marte (OF, Pirates): Ack, I really wanted Anthony Rizzo here, but scrolled around and could not find him, so I made the dumb assumption he was gone. So, I went some power and a lot of speed with Marte. Mistake to start. Not good. No margin for error.
2) Freddie Freeman (1B, Braves): Dude had a monster season (.302-34-91) and is going into his peak seasons with a team that is indeed improving around him. If I missed it on Rizzo, I had targeted Marte for Round 2, so I am hoping the combination of Freeman and Marte is just as productive as Rizzo/Marte might have been/will be.
5) Julio Teheran (P, Braves): Great numbers for another youngin' who should emerge as the ace in this rotation. Actually, I had targeted Johnny Cueto with my fourth pick, but he was grabbed two picks before my turn. So, I went another round of hitting (I took Andrew McCutchen) before pitching, and once I hit the hurlers, I took one each round for the next nine rounds.
14) Devon Travis (2B, Jays): I love Travis covering middle infield, for I feel confident that should he get in a full season, he will give some great numbers. As in, over his career, Travis has played 163 games with a line of .301-19-85, and that I will take.
16) Jacoby Ellsbury (OF, Yankees): This could be a great pick, or last year was indeed a harbinger, and Ellsbury has lost it. In the 16th round, I can gamble and hope for .290-15-70 with ten swipes. He is getting paid the big bucks, so Ellsbury will likely play, so the question is what is left in the tank?
20) Jorge Soler (OF, Cubs): Certainly new toys lose some gloss if they don't live up to expectations, but Soler is still just 25, and his overall numbers last year were not so horrible at .238-12-41 with 31 walks to 66 strikeouts (.333 OBP). But, Dexter Fowler and Ben Zobrist are free agents, and however funky Soler's 2016 was, it was better than Jason Heyward's. I am thus guessing Soler will get every chance to play every day and show what he can do, and I think he makes the leap a la Javier Baez (who is decidedly not an outfielder). So, grabbing this potential this late seems too good to be true.
26) Kyle Barraclough (P, Marlins): In the 23rd round, I nabbed Ryan Dull with eyes on potential closers for 2017, but I think Barraclough, who whiffed 111 over 72.3 frames last year, might really be the guy who emerges with some saves.
33) Clay Buchholz (P, Red Sox): A possible starter with strikeout potential this late? Well, these later rounds are the campgrounds of uncertain arms, and guys like Jeff Locke, Ubaldo Jimenez and Buchholz fell to me after round 30 as crapshoots. Buchholz is a potential Saberhagen-metrics darling, and in 2015, he logged a 1.209 WHIP and 3.26 ERA, and in 2013, a 1.025 WHIP and 1.745 ERA, so this year must be it, right?
39) Brock Holt (Mult/Red Sox): Getting a solid multi-positional guy this late seems like a good thing.
46) Sam Travis (1B, Red Sox): Someone has to play first base for the Sox next year, and I am betting that Travis will emerge. The first sacker lost most all of last year with an ACL injury, but the 23-year-old has a .202-22-151 line across 245 minor league games with a .364 OBP, and that includes 47 games at Triple-A with a .272-6-29 line. He's as ready as anyone.
Don't forget you can hit me up @lawrmichaels.