Mastersball

The 2013 season is looming, less than three weeks away, and with draft season starting to hit high gear it’s time we moved towards finishing up our look at potential impact prospect hitters for 2013 with a scan of the outfielders of the National League.

Arizona Diamondbacks
Adam Eaton is one of the most targeted prospects this spring. Through as recently as last season, the short lefty was viewed as a fourth outfielder type with good plate discipline and speed skills. Since then, Eaton has translated those skills well to the Majors and is now a .280s 30+ steal threat with middle to high single digits home run power.

To contrast Eaton, A.J. Pollock was thought of as the superior prospect, and the Diamondbacks' centerfielder of the future as recently as last season. A former first round pick, the lefty still has superior plate discipline skills, high single digits to low-teens homer potential, and 20 to 30 steal ability. Eaton, however, has moved ahead of him on the depth charts and Pollock may end up sitting in Triple-A or on the bench. With Cody Ross possibly missing the start of the season, Pollock could get some early season at-bats in the Majors.
Alfredo Marte will move up to Triple-A and has a chance of reaching the Majors in 2013, but has obstacles in front of him. Being a right-hander might help given that Ross is the only other right-handed outfielder. Marte has the most power of this trio (high-teens to low-twenties HR potential) and is a somewhat aggressive contact hitter with solid defensive skills. He profiles best as a right-handed platoon option.

Atlanta Braves
The Braves have a very young outfield that is going to be quite tough to crack, barring injury, for years to come. So the only rookies we are likely to see are of the backup variety. Todd Cunningham will advance to Triple-A this year and profiles well as a backup, possessing above average speed, playing good defense, having some gap power and a solid, contact-oriented approach at the plate.

Chicago Cubs
24-year-old Brett Jackson reached the Majors last season and only just retained his rookie status with 120 at-bats. The lefty has solid tools and 20-20 potential, and while he has shown good patience at the plate, he has a swing wrought with holes and a tendency to strike out more than a quarter, if not a third of the time. The Cubs will go with David DeJesus to start the season. If Jackson can improve his contact-making skills, the opportunity to push his way into a starting role is there, but that’s a big if.

Cincinnati Reds
The Reds enter 2013 with an outfield of Ryan Ludwick, Shin-Soo Choo and Jay Bruce with Chris Heisey waiting in the wings. Meanwhile, every NL-only or mixed leaguer is anxiously awaiting the arrival of Billy Hamilton, speedster extraordinaire. Hamiton stole over 150 bags in the minor leagues last year and is at least a 50-stolen base threat in the Majors. Hamilton, however, has amassed fewer than 200 Double-A plate appearances and could very well begin there to start the season, pushing his big league arrival towards the latter half of the season. The switch-hitter, however, has the talent to speed up that time frame. Hamilton has true leadoff potential as a patient hitter who knows how to bunt and keep the ball on the ground and use his legs. The only concern here are strikeout rates. As a player with minimal power, Hamilton needs to focus on making more contact and putting the ball in play. That will be the difference between being a .260 or .300 hitter.

Ryan LaMarre may actually get a crack at the Majors before Hamilton. A 24-yaer-old former second round pick, the lefty has a fairly good plate approach, good speed and plays good defense, but he only has gap power. LaMarre has no true standout skill or talent and is best suited to a bench role.

Colorado Rockies
2012 was a major disappointment for Tim Wheeler after his 33 home run/21 steal campaign of 2011. A broken hamate bone robbed him of both time and his power. The 25-year-old will head back to Triple-A, hopefully fully healed. Long-term, the lefty still has .280/20+ HR potential, and while he is now a borderline fourth outfielder/quad-A player given his age, there is still a chance he could win a starting job once Cuddyer’s contract expires after 2014.

Corey Dickerson has a chance to move ahead of Wheeler on the depth charts. The 23-year-old will advance to Triple-A after hitting 22 homers between two minor league levels. While he does not have Wheeler's defensive skills or raw bat speed, Dickerson does have legitimate 20+ HR potential and has shown an aptitude for making fairly consistent contact. The lefty is a tad over-aggressive at the plate and that may limit his OBP skills long-term.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Opportunities exist for lefties in left field with a platoon of Skip Schumaker and Jerry Hairston Jr. scheduled to man the position while Carl Crawford recovers from injury. Alex Castellanos, Blake Smith and Scott Van Slyke may all receive chances, though none really project as starters. Castellanos has high-teens to low-twenties home run potential and a tad above average speed. A former infielder, Castellanos is viewed mostly as a utility guy given his defensive versatility. If forced to play more regularly, he profiles as a wrong-side of the platoon type player. Blake Smith is a lefty with 20+ HR potential and enough speed to handle center. However, he is a 25-year-old with only Double-A experience and is in need of a significant reduction in his strikeout rate. Finally, Scott Van Slyke, son of Andy Van Slyke, won’t remind anyone of his dad defensively. Like the other two, Van Slyke is an older prospect and is right-handed, but makes good contact and has a disciplined approach to go along with high teens to low-twenties home run potential. He’s coming off a .327/.404/.579 campaign in Triple-A and deserves another look. If Crawford returns healthy and effective, the odds of any of this trio getting significant playing time are minimal.

To Review:

Possible MLB Phase/Auction Selections:
Adam Eaton

Possible Minor League Draft Phase Selections:
A.J. Pollock, Brett Jackson, Billy Hamilton

Possible In-Season Pick-Ups:
Alfredo Marte, Todd Cunningham, Ryan LaMarre, Tim Wheeler, Corey Dickerson, Scott Van Slyke, Alex Castellanos, Blake Smith

Next week, the remainder of the NL Outfielders.

There are 90 starting outfield jobs in the Majors, not to mention the potential to DH. Given the sheer number of variables, this week we change things up a bit by focusing just on the American League and breaking things down team by team to better understand the potential opportunities for rookies to obtain playing time. This week we finish up the AL outfielders.

Detroit
The Tigers current corner outfield configuration is transient with Andy Dirks and Torii Hunter. Top prospect Nick Castellanos was moved to right field last year and speaks to why the Tigers were interested in Hunter on the free agent market. The nearly 21-year-old held his own but did not dominate Double-A pitching, but he is now showing power potential after hitting 10 homers and 42 doubles between two levels. Long-term he might be a 20+ per year HR hitter, but I’m skeptical given a rather aggressive approach and the fact that he's right-handed. I want to see more of what Castellanos did in A+ ball (9% walk rate, 83% contact rate) first before getting excited. Castellanos could start the year in Double-A, but could move quickly depending on Detroit’s mediocre outfield and his progress.

Avisail Garcia made it to the Majors at 21 years of age but will likely start 2013 in Triple-A. The righty is a very aggressive hitter who has made some strides in reducing his strikeout rate. He’s a big guy who projects to have 20+ per season home run power and perhaps teens stolen base potential. Both Garcia and Castellanos are high risk/high reward types with abundant tools. There is at least MLB regular potential in both players, but I would like to see what they can accomplish at Triple-A first, let alone the Majors.

Houston
The Astros have a wildcard of a starting outfield with Chris Carter, Justin Maxwell and Fernando Martinez all slated for starting slots. All three are high risk options that are more likely to fizzle than succeed. That means opportunities abound. While both Rick Ankiel and J.D. Martinez are likely to get shots too, it does also leave room for others. The Astros picked up Marc Krauss last year from the Diamondbacks. The lefty has definite platoon possibilities with his main two assests being above average patience and plate discipline and high-teens to low-twenties homer potential.

Robbie Grossman was another in-season acquisition as the Astros unloaded their veterans. Grossman continues a theme of highly disciplined hitters with limited upside. Grossman does not ooze tools and is more of a doubles hitter that profiles best as a fourth outfielder but who won’t embarrass himself if forced to start.

Given these lack of options, it is worth focusing on George Springer even though he has barely any Double-A experience. Springer is a possible impact player who can play centerfield and who possesses 25-25 potential. The righty has shown some selectivity at the plate but, like many players of his age and tools, needs to cut down on the strikeouts. Right now he reminds me a lot of former Diamondback Chris Young.

Kansas City
The Royals head into 2013 giving Lorenzo Cain a chance to stay healthy and clam the CF job and Jeff Francouer will be a free agent at the end of the season. So again, this is a team with potential openings. However, the most likely minor league candidate to benefit from those openings is David Lough and Brian Fletcher. Lough is a journeyman centerfielder with good speed, gap power, and an aggressive but contact-making approach. The lefty profiles better as an extra but he offers enough, especially 20+ stolen base potential, to keep him on your radar.

Los Angeles
A combination of Mike Trout, Josh Hamilton and Peter Bourjos with Vernon Wells on the bench is not a situation that is likely to generate many opportunities for rookies. That said, the Angels do have a few candidates, though none exciting. Kole Calhoun is the best of the bunch. The 25-year-old has a low ceiling but modest teens power potential. He plays solid defense and has a good approach at the plate. The lefty will almost always be used as a back-up but has some platoon player potential. Travis Witherspoon is more athletic than Calhoun, possessing above average speed and outfield range. The righty has gap power and is somewhat selective but strikes out far too often for someone of limited power potential. Witherspoon will probably end up an organizational player. 

Minnesota
Only Josh Willingham has a strong hold on his position in the Twins’ outfield. Chris Parmalee is being given another shot to prove he can be a regular while Darin Mastroianni is competing against prospects Aaron Hicks and Joe Benson for the starting centerfield job. Hicks, a former first round pick, is the Twins preferred option. A switch hitter, Hicks has a good combination of developing power, 30+ steal potential and the ability to draw a walk. The caveats are a complete lack of experience above Double-A and a tendency towards high strikeout rates that suppress his ability to hit for average.

Joe Benson, nearly 25, was once the Twins' centerfielder of the future, but he has had some performance and injury issues lately that have held him back. When healthy, the righty has 20-20 potential and, like Hicks, draws walks at a fairly high rate. However, Benson strikes out around a quarter or more of the time, which is a major caveat for right-handed hitters. He projects best as a right-hand side of a platoon or bench player.

Meanwhile, Oswaldo Arcia may not be competing for an opening day roster spot but could obtain one in the mid to late season. The righty will report back to Double-A or could move to Triple-A, especially if there is a need for more outfield depth should Hicks and/or Benson make the MLB squad. Arcia has the most power of this group, a quick bat, and a rather solid approach whereby he maintains a healthy OBP while holding down the strikeouts enough to hit for average and power. Last year, he hit over .300 with an OBP approaching .400 and a slugging percentage of over .500 at just 21 years of age.

New York
The Yankees have already lost Curtis Granderson for at least the first month of the 2013 season and will likely have to utilize the likes of Juan Rivera, Matt Diaz and others to man left field while Brett Gardner holds down center with Ichiro Suzuki in right. The Yankees are not blessed with many upper level outfield prospects either. Zoilo Almonte is the closest thing. The switch-hitter performed well in Double-A, hitting 21 homers with 15 steals but is an aggressive hitter with mediocre OBP skills. Unless his lower minor league level skills reemerge, Almonte will be best suited for back-up work.

Oakland
The A’s are going with an outfield of Yoenis Cespedes, Coco Crisp and Josh Reddick with Chris Young waiting in the wings as a fourth outfielder. However, Crisp does have a substantial injury history and Reddick has only one year as a starter under his belt which includes a .305 OBP, so there are potential chinks in the armor here.

Top prospect Michael Choice is probably more of a mid to late season potential addition. A righty with a fairly patient approach and quick bat, Choice has legitimate 25+ home run per season potential. While Choice is not slow, he is not a double digits steal threat either. He strikes me as a .270s or better hitter long-term and it will be interesting to see how he comes back from a broken hand last season and whether or not his power rebounds to 2011 levels.

Michael Taylor is a journeyman outfielder with 15-15 talent and a solid approach at the plate, but he has been passed over several times for a promotion and an extended look at the MLB level. At 27 y ears of age, time is running out.

Tampa Bay
The Wil Myers countdown has already begun and it may not be long before the 22-year-old claims a full-time job. For now though, the Rays are utilizing an outfield of Joyce, Jennings and Zobrist with Luke Scott at DH. So when Myers does ascend, position changes and repercussions may be felt throughout the lineup. Myers has 30-plus home run power potential and a patient approach. The righty has hit for average at every minor league stop but has also posted some rather outstanding BABIPs (.350 or much higher) to do so. As a former catcher, however, Myers possesses below average speed. This combined with a sub-80% contact rate makes me a bit of a non-believer. A better comparison long-term may be Josh Willingham, who is a former right-handed hitting catcher with a similar approach and power skills. So do not be surprised if Myers ends up a .260s or .270s hitter long term.

Texas
Leonys Martin has an edge on the starting centerfield job for Texas. The Cuban defector has an interesting array of talents and skills, combining 15 HR and 20+ stolen base potential along with a generally contact-oriented approach. Things only come apart when the 25-year-old becomes too power conscious. Staying healthy and getting more plate appearances should help on both counts, though given his limited Triple-A experience over two years, a slow start would be far from surprising.

To Review:

Possible MLB Phase/Auction Selections:
Aaron Hicks, Joe Benson, David Lough, Leonys Martin

Possible Minor League Draft Phase Selections:
Wil Myers, Oswaldo Arcia, George Springer, Avisail Garcia, Nick Castellanos L.J. Hoes, Jackie Bradley, Bryce Bentz, Trayce Thompson, Jared Mitchell, Marc Krauss 

Possible In-Season Pick-Ups:
Xavier Avery, Alex Hassan, Juan Carlos Linares, Jordan Danks, Blake Tekotte, Tim Fedroff, Travis Witherspoon, Kole Calhoun, Zoilo Almonte, Michael Taylor

There are 90 starting outfield jobs in the Majors, not to mention possible designated hitters. Given the sheer number of variables, this week we change things up a bit by focusing just on the American League and breaking things down team by team to better understand the potential opportunities for rookies to obtain playing time.

Baltimore
Two-thirds of the Orioles' outfield is pretty ironclad with Nick Markakis and Adam Jones both locked into long-term contracts. There are, however, opportunities for youngsters with the platoon of Nate McLouth/Nolan Reimold in left and Wilson Betemit/Danny Valencia at DH. Xavier Avery and L.J. Hoes are the two most likely beneficiaries. Both players were up with the big club in 2012, but neither lost their rookie status. Avery has decent power/speed skills (mid-teens, 20+ steal potential), and knows how to get on base. However, he strikes out far too often for someone with limited power and figures to be a fourth outfielder or platoon player at best. Hoes has marginal pop but excellent plate discipline and 20+ stolen base potential. Almost 23, Hoes probably has a leg up on Avery and might show some ability to hit for average and get on base in the Majors, but he looks more like a bench player long-term.

Boston
The Red Sox may actually have some openings as the season progresses, particularly if they are not in the pennant chase. Jacoby Ellsbury is a pending free agent and Jonny Gomes is best suited to platoon/DH work. Alex Hassan has a stress fracture in his foot and may not start the season on time but is still worthy of note. The righty is a doubles hitter with low to mid-teens HR power. The nearly 25-year-old is best noted for his well above average plate discipline, showing an ability to draw walks and make consistent contact. He's a possible back-up or platoon player.

Juan Carlos Linares split 2012 almost evenly between Double and Triple-A ball, hitting eight homers at each stop. A 29-year-old Cuban defector, Linares is an aggressive, at peak hitter who lacks any standout offensive skills but could make the Majors due to his defense.

Bryce Brentz is a more intriguing option for the Red Sox. The 24-year-old has legitimate 20+ HR potential and may be just a half season away from the Majors. While the Sox may give him a chance to start, I feel similarly to him as I do Will Middlebrooks – a good athlete with good power, but an overly aggressive right-handed hitter. I would not expect him to hit for average or be much of an OBP threat at the MLB level.

Jackie Bradley is the one player of this group who is a likely long-term starter. The lefty does almost everything well and is the reason the Sox may let Ellsbury walk after the season. Bradley is an adept centerfielder with plenty of speed, a quick bat, low to middle-teens HR power potential and true leadoff hitter worthy plate discipline. It remains to be seen whether he’ll start 2013 in Double-A or Triple-A.

Chicago
The White Sox have a potentially volatile outfield given the skills of Dayan Viciedo, Alejandro de Aza and Alex Rios, and the club has a number of upper system outfield options. Jared Mitchell may have already been in the Sox’s starting outfield if not for an ankle injury he suffered in 2010. The former first-round pick still has above average speed but is no longer a plus-plus runner and he was never going to be a significant power threat. He's more of a high single-digit to mid-teens home run hitter. The lefty has struck out over 30% of the time almost every year of his career, more due to being too passive than anything else, and now looks more like a back-up outfielder than a potential regular.

Trayce Thompson is perhaps the most likely player in this organization to crack the starting outfield, but it may not happen until September. The 21-year-old has barely any experience above A+ ball but has shown 20+ home run potential and some on-base skills. Particularly s a right-handed hitter, however, he’ll need to cut down on his high strikeout rate to be a threat in the batting average department. Right now he looks like a .250/20-20 guy.

Jordan Danks and Blake Tekotte are more MLB/2013 ready options. Danks, now 26, is a journeyman with moderate power/speed skills and reasonable on-base abilities. I like him as a back-up or platoon type. Tekotte, 25, had a miserable year in Triple-A and needs to reassert his plus-speed/defense skills. The lefty is normally a very patient hitter with low-teens pop and given that the White Sox gave a journeyman in De Aza a try in centerfield, they might not be afraid to try Tekotte should he rebound or in the event De Aza falters. Tekotte is worth keeping an eye on as a potential source for cheap speed.

Cleveland
The Indians are not blessed with a lot of upper level outfield depth, but then again they do not really need it with an outfield that has pushed Nick Swisher to first base (Michael Brantley, Michael Bourn and Drew Stubbs) and made Rule-5 pick Chris McGuiness go from possible starter to possible Rule-5 returnee. The Triple-A squad is loaded with veterans like Matt Carson, Ben Francisco, Jeremy Hermida and Cedric Hunter, so the opportunities for rookies to play may be minimal. Tim Fedroff is perhaps the most likely rookie to see action. The former 7^th round pick is an organizational or back-up player at best. On the good side, he’s a lefty with solid defensive skills and very solid plate discipline skills that allow him to hit for average and get on base. However, Fedroff is a low single-digits home run hitter at best and a single digits stolen base type, so the odds of a starting gig are rather low.

To Review:

Possible MLB Phase/Auction Selections:

Possible Minor League Draft Phase Selections:
L.J. Hoes, Jackie Bradley, Bryce Bentz, Trayce Thompson, Jared Mitchell

Possible In-Season Pick-Ups:
Xavier Avery, Alex Hassan, Juan Carlos Linares, Jordan Danks, Blake Tekotte, Tim Fedroff

Once again we continue our look at the Impact Prospects for 2013! This week; a detailed look at the field of shortstops.

Jurickson Profar is widely considered one of, if not the best hitting prospect in all of baseball as of this moment. As a 19-year-old (and he does not turn 20 for another 4 days), Profar hit 15 home runs and stole 16 bases while displaying the plate discipline of a skilled veteran with a 12% walk rate and 14% strikeout rate. I failed to mention that defensively, Profar should be able to stick at shortstop long-term too. The Rangers are well-stocked in the middle infield with Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler, so even though Profar may actually be given a shot at earning a slot on the opening day roster, the Rangers have zero reason to rush him and the most likely outcome has Profar beginning 2013 in Triple-A and possibly spending substantial time there barring injuries at the MLB level. Profar looks like a .300 hitter in waiting given good power and speed skills and may have a few 20-20 seasons in him too.

The Marlins acquired the defensively skillful Adeiny Hechavarria in the Jose Reyes mega-blockbuster deal and plan to install him as their starting shortstop immediately. His glove should keep him there for the time being, but it remains to be seen whether his bat is capable of keeping him a starter. The righty is not without tools and has enough speed, if his technique improves, to reach double digits in steals, and has doubles power with high single-digits home run potential. The righty is pretty aggressive at the plate and makes only fair contact. I sense he ends up a .260s to .270s hitter and like many shortstops, more valuable for real baseball purposes than fantasy ones.

Hak-Ju Lee was at the top of most AL-only leaguers prospect lists in 2012. Instead, the former Cub never made it past Double-A while showing little skill development. On the good side, Lee is an above average runner with 30+ SB potential and is a well above average defender. On the downside, Lee’s once lauded plate discipline has not held up at Double-A, with Lee making contact less often and failing to hit for average or get on base with the frequency expected of him. The Rays have Yunel Escobar in as a stop gap, so Lee will have plenty of time to work on his game at Triple-A and may not join the Rays until late in the season.

The Red Sox have gone the stop gap route as well by signing Stephen Drew to a one-year contract with Jose Iglesias and Xander Bogaerts waiting in the wings. Jose Iglesias is Rey Ordonez. The righty is tremendous in the field, but is otherwise a groundball hitting, weak contact hitter with average wheels and will probably struggle to hit .250 in the Majors.

Enter Xander Bogaerts. As a 19-year-old, Bogaerts has already made it to Double-A and tapped into his power with 20 home runs between two levels. At this point, the youngster gets favorable reviews for his defense at shortstop, despite his size (6’3”) and he will stay there for now. Bogaerts combines power and a fairly advanced approached for someone his age, but strikes out a bit too often for a righty. I currently see Bogaerts as a .280 to .290s hitter with 25+ HR potential. If he can stay at shortstop long-term, he’ll be something truly special. How soon he is in the Majors will depend on Stephen Drew and whether Bogaerts continues to tear apart minor league pitching at his current pace. Right now, I see him as more of a September call-up, though that could easily be accelerated given what is blocking his path.

The Mariners are another team stocked with shortstops and the only stop gap in this situation is Brendan Ryan. Nick Franklin is likely an average at best defensive shortstop and may end up at second base long-term. While the nearly 22-year-old needs a few more months in Triple-A, the switch hitter has shown double-digits power and stolen base potential as well as a rather disciplined approach that should allow him to hit .280 or better in the Majors. Not a star, but could be a starter for a long time. Brad Miller, 23, has no Triple-A experience but is the better defensive shortstop range and glove-wise of the two, but he is prone to more throwing errors. The lefty is a rather refined hitter with good on-base skills and double-digits HR and stolen base potential. I have a hard time deciding which of the two will have the better career, which one the Mariners will keep at short and who will be moved to second base. My money is on Miller at short and I suspect that should Dustin Ackley fail to produce again, this could be the double-play combination by late this season and heading into 2014.

Jonathan Villar has excellent tools with double-digits power potential, 30+ stolen base potential, and the range and arm to stick at shortstop. However, Villar is rather error prone in the field and despite walking 9% of the time in 2012, the switch-hitter is actually a rather aggressive hitter who strikes out too often given his modest power potential. The Astros will start with Tyler Greene as their everyday shortstop, so there may be an opportunity for Villar to emerge before Carlos Correa charges through their system. Villar may have difficulty hitting .240 in the Majors but should provide some speed and pop and perhaps more if he can tone his aggressiveness down a bit.

To Review:

Possible MLB Phase/Auction Selections:
Adeiny Hechavarria, Jurickson Profar

Possible Minor League Draft Phase Selections:
Xander Bogaerts, Nick Franklin, Hak-Ju Lee, Brad Miller, Jonathan Villar

Possible In-Season Pick-Ups:
Tim Beckham, Christian Colon, Greg Garcia, Didi Gregorius, Jose Iglesias, Ryan Jackson, Carlos Triunfel, Zach Walters

For more information about some of the players listed above who I didn’t explain in detail, feel free to comment below.

Once again we continue our look at the Impact Prospects for 2013! This week; a detailed look at the third base crop.

The Rockies opted for a patient approach with top prospect Nolan Arenado in 2012 and it turned out being a wise decision. The 21-year- old did not dominate at Double-A Tulsa as expected but held his own, hitting .285 with 12 homers. Arenado has a fairly aggressive, contact-oriented approach that may be more suited to line-drives and hitting for average than for power in the long run. He’ll advance to Triple-A and could unseat Chris Nelson at third base by mid-season, but keep your expectations modest, particularly in the power department.

Last season, I was fairly high on Seattle’s Vinnie Catricala. The 24-year-old displayed a nice combination of 20+ home run potential and plate discipline, but suffered through an unexpectedly poor season that saw him post a .229/.292/.348 line. The power and approach appeared to be still intact, but a .262 BABIP, as opposed to his overly inflated well over .300 BABIP of the year before, suppressed his skills. One has to wonder if he was playing through an injury. A complete rebound season, given no significant change of skill or tools occurred in 2012, is quite possible. Finding a spot to play in the Seattle lineup may be the greater obstacle.

Wilmer Flores has been amongst the Mets’ top prospects since 2008. In Flores’ 5^th season of professional play, the righty was still young, at 20 years of age, to be playing at Double-A. Flores turned 21 back in August and had his best campaign to date with 18 homers while making contact nearly 90% of the time at two levels.  Right now, he profiles fairly well as an high-teens to low-twenties home run hitter who may be able to hit .290 or better. However, he won’t be playing third with David Wright around and is ill-suited to second, though given that the Mets are playing Daniel Murphy there already, it is not that much of a stretch to give Flores a try there too.

Mike Olt performed so well in Double-A Frisco that the Rangers needed to find a way to get him into the lineup in 2012. The 24-year-old is a good defensive third baseman with legitimate 25+ home run per season power. A righty, Olt has a "swing hard in case you hit it" approach that results in plenty of strikeouts and as a result will hamper his ability to hit for average in the long run, though if he manages to hit .260, his OBP will more than make up for it. Olt won’t unseat Adrian Beltre at third base but could compete against or platoon with Mitch Moreland by mid-season.

Zach Lutz is somewhere between organizational player and possible platoon player. The righty has had trouble staying healthy over the course of his minor league career and is perhaps best suited to first base. When healthy, he shows legitimate 20+ home run potential combined with a patient approach. While third base is his standard position, the Mets will audition him in left field this spring and it’s possible at some point in the year he could end up in a platoon with Lucas Duda.

The Phillies brought Michael Young in as a stop-gap measure for Cody Asche. Asche, 22, will begin 2013 in Triple-A. The lefty is an adequate defensive third sacker mainly noted for his bat speed and mid-teens to 20-home run per season power. The former fourth round pick’s plate discipline gets mixed reviews, as he’s an intelligent hitter but tends to be quite aggressive and his contact-making skills were not as strong upon moving up to Double-A. Asche won’t be a star but has some potential to be a regular. Asche’s ascension depends on the Phillies competitiveness and of course the performances of both Young and Asche.

Luis Jimenez is wasted behind Alberto Callaspo. The just turned 25-year-old has translated his skills to each level of new competition, showing mid to high teens homer potential and solid contact making skills, a combination that allows him to hit for a high average. Jimenez, however, is too aggressive. Even if he hits .290 to .300 at the MLB level, his sub 5% walk rates will result in mediocre OBPs, though still possibly more effective than Callaspo. Jimenez could easily end up an organizational player but if the stars align right, he could end up an effective regular too.

Former first round pick Josh Vitters finally started to produce in the Minors and actually received an 109 at-bat stint with the Cubs in 2012. The righty flashed more power (19 total homers on the season), but his very aggressive approach backfired in the Majors, creating a major uptick in strikeouts and had him hitting just .121. Ian Stewart will man third base to start the season but there is an opportunity, provided Vitters rebounds in Triple-A, for a possible platoon situation.

Conor Gillaspie is another former first round pick but has a better chance of making his club. I have long compared Gillaspie to former Giant, Bill Mueller. Like Mueller, Gillaspie is a highly disciplined hitter who makes good contact, can hit for average, and has gap power and low to mid-teens home run potential. Brandon Belt and Pablo Sandoval, however, block him positionally, so a utility role will be his lot.

As a note, I did consider several other players for this article. Nick Castellanos was moved to the outfield in the middle of last year and will be found in those pieces when they are posted. Jed Gyorko was covered in the second base impact prospects for 2013.

To Review:

Possible MLB Phase/Auction Selections:
Mike Olt, Conor Gillaspie

Possible Minor League Draft Phase Selections:
Nolan Arenado, Wilmer Flores, Cody Asche

Possible In-Season Pick-Ups:
Zach Lutz, Vinnie Catricala, Luis Jimenez, Josh Vitters

Jedd Gyorko is really a third basemen. But if he wants to play in the Majors for the Padres, a shift to second base will be necessary and thus his inclusion in our list of potential impact prospects at second base for 2013!

Heading into last season I had concerns regarding his power potential given that the righty stands just 5’10 . Well, Gyorko has now produced consecutive 25 and 30 home run outputs. The former second round pick is pretty well disciplined, makes consistent hard contact, but is not the fastest of runners, so there’s potential here as a .280 to .300 20 to 25 HR guy in the Majors and a possibility he could push for the starting job in the spring.

Jonathan Schoop’s 2012 outwardly was not all that impressive with a .245 14 HR performance in Double-A. Now keep in mind that he did not turn 21 until after the season. Schoop’s best tool is his power, projecting possibly as a 20+ HR per season type and with some experience, perhaps making him a .270s hitter. Schoop’s long-term position is part of the question as he not strongly suited for shortstop and is not particularly fast, so it remains to be seen whether he’ll be a second or third basemen long term. For now, his bat profiles well at second. Schoop could repeat Double-A or advance to Triple-A which would put him in line for a mid to late season call-up depending on Brian Roberts’ health.

Cord Phelps, 26, barely retains his rookie status. However, the righty has had three consecutively solid seasons for the Indians at Triple-A, yet has barely received an extended look in the Majors. The switch hitter is highly disciplined, can play multiple infield positions, and has mid-teens power potential. Second base is probably Phelps’ best position, but the best opportunity may lie at third should Lonnie Chisenhall continue to be unimpressive.

Jemile Weeks failed to take the A’s second base job and run away with it. So now, Rickie’s younger brother will have to fend off Grant Green this spring. Green  may not have Weeks’ plate discipline skills, but does have a bat that is a good fit for second base. A righty, Green has mid-teens home run power and did make some strong improvements to his contact in 2012. His upside is a.280 to .290 with 12 to 17 HR's a year. In other words Green is a possible starter, but unlikely a star player.

Robinson Cano is well entrenched as the Yankees’ second basemen. However, Corban Joseph has nothing left to prove in the minors and could see a promotion to a utility role. The 24-year old is an exceptionally well disciplined hitter with high single digits to low-teens power skills. The lefty falls well into the Cord Phelps class of player who needs an extended chance, but may need a new organization in order to even receive that opportunity.

The Mariners are still fairly committed to keeping Dustin Ackley as their starting second basemen. However, given the middle infield depth in this organization, this is a make or break year for Ackley. Nick Franklin will soon push Brendan Ryan aside at shortstop while Stefen Romero and Brad Miller will pushing their way to the upper minors. All three players are probably not at their ideal positions with Romero perhaps being better suited to third and both Franklin and Miller best suited to second. While for now, Romero is the only one of the bunch actually being used at this position; the second basemen of the bunch. The 6’3” righty hit 23 homers between two levels while showing an ability to make consistent contact and reminds me a bit of former Mariner, Jose Lopez as an aggressive hitter with power, but with question marks surrounding the rest of his game. Still, this is a player who could end up hitting .280 20+ HR at the MLB level and must be watched.

Henry Rodriguez should see some action with the Reds in 2013, but probably in a utility role with sleeper potential. The switch-hitter is a very aggressive contact hitter with doubles power and double-digits steals potential.

Former first round pick Kolten Wong is inching his way to the Majors and in 2013 the lefty will advance to Triple-A while focused on a mid-season call-up. Wong is a fundamentally strong player who plays solid defense at second and good base stealing technique despite average speed. At the plate he is aggressive, but actually controls the strike zone quite well, making contact well over 80% of the time and possessing gap power and high single digits home run potential. Wong is not going to be a star, but could be a .270's to .280's hitter who may in some years manage double digit results in HR's and steals.

Scooter Gennett, like Kolten Wong, will advance to Triple-A with an eye on a call-up. Unfortunately, Rickie Weeks is a more significant obstacle than Kolten Wong’s Daniel Descalso. Still, Weeks is a weak defensive player who could be moved to the outfield. Like Wong, Gennett makes very consistent contact and is a smart baserunner with gap power. However, Gennett is not quite as disciplined a hitter as Wong. It will be interesting to see which of the two actually ends up a starter in the long run and if both, which ends up superior. I have a sneaking suspicion Gennett actually ends up a utility player given his OBP skill shortcomings.

To Review:

Possible MLB Phase/Auction Selections:
Jedd, Gyorko, Grant Green

Possible Minor League Draft Phase Selections:
Jonathan Schoop, Stefen Romero, Kolten Wong, Scooter Gennett

Possible In-Season Pick-Ups:
Cord Phelps, Joseph Corban, Henry Rodriguez

This week we continue our look at the Impact Prospects for 2013 with an examination of the first base candidates.

While Jonathan Singleton’s suspension for marijuana use is disappointing and will delay his ascension to the Majors, I would not let it deter you at all from selecting the Astros' future first-sacker. The lefty really tapped into his power potential in 2012 with 21 dingers while continuing to show an advanced approach at the plate. And it was all done as a 20-year-old in Double-A. When the suspension is served, he’ll begin at Triple-A and could be up mid to late season depending on his progress and the production from Houston’s first base stop gaps.

The Pirates are entering 2013 with a possible platoon of on-base challenged Garrett Jones and 2012 disappointment Gaby Sanchez. While this platoon could end up being quite productive for the Buccos, journeyman Clint Robinson should not be ignored. The soon-to-be 28-year-old has mid-teens to twenty HR per season power and an advanced plate approach that should allow him to get on base and hit in the .270 to .280 range. The issue is opportunity. The most likely scenario has Robinson spending most of 2013 in Triple-A as roster filler.

Todd Helton is still the Rockies’ first baseman. However, the 39-year-old managed just 283 plate appearances in 2012 and is clearly in the twilight of his career. While Tyler Colvin might get the first opportunity to replace and/or platoon with Helton, Ryan Wheeler may be the name to watch. A third baseman, Wheeler’s path to the Majors will be through 1B given Nolan Arenado is also a Rockie. Wheeler is not a future star but could be a regular given modest plate discipline, a left-handed bat with consistent contact-making skills, and high-teens to low-twenties homer potential.

The Marlins may be without Logan Morrison to begin the season. Enter journeyman Joe Mahoney. The former Oriole is no great offensive force but may be a passable fill-in for NL-only leaguers. The lefty makes consistent contact but is not a huge threat in the power game, possessing only low to mid-teens home run potential.

Corey Hart could miss the first 3 to 4 months of the season. This provides an opportunity not only for Mat Gamel, who will get first crack at playing first base for the Brewers, but potentially for Hunter Morris too. Should Gamel be unable to rise to the challenge, the job could fall to the 24-year-old. A left-handed hitter, Morris is coming off of a 28-HR performance in Double-A where he batted .303/.356/.563. However, Morris is a rather aggressive hitter who may be overmatched against MLB pitching, lefties in particular. Still, he has some interesting potential as a platoon player or average regular.

Matt Adams has a MLB ready bat but no place to play. The 24-year-old has mid to upper twenties home run power and a good track record for making contact that could help him develop into at least a .260s hitter, if not better, in the Majors. Defensively, Adams is best suited for first base, where he is currently blocked by Allen Craig. An injury may have to happen for opportunity to occur.

Darin Ruf enjoyed a breakout season that included 41 homers between Double-A and the Majors in 2012. The 26-year-old has legitimate 20+ home run potential and a disciplined, hard-contact approach. The problem is positional. Ruf is a below average defender everywhere he plays, but has at least seen some time in left field and could push for playing time there should Domonic Brown fail to lay down a strong claim.

Chris McGuiness was selected by the Indians from the Rangers’ organization in the Rule-5 draft and must be kept on the MLB roster for the 2013 season or be offered back to the Rangers. The Indians do indeed have an opening at DH and McGuiness will receive an opportunity to lay claim to it. The 24-year-old has legitimate 20+ HR power and a well-disciplined approach that let him hit 23 homers in Double-A in 2012. He profiles as a .260s hitter at the MLB level.

The Astros snagged Nate Freiman from the Padres in the Rule-5 draft and are an organization in need of offense, especially with the suspension of Jonathan Singleton. A former 8^th round pick, Freiman brings good contact making skills and 20+ HR potential. He could be a .270s or better hitter at the MLB level. He’ll compete against Brett Wallace and Carlos Pena for playing time but could end up the odd man out.

To Review:

Possible MLB Phase/Auction Selections:
Joe Mahoney, Chris McGuiness, Nate Freiman

Possible Minor League Draft Phase Selections:
Jonathan Singleton, Darin Ruf, Ryan Wheeler, Matt Adams, Hunter Morris

Possible In-Season Pick-Ups:
Clint Robinson

That time of year has come again. It is mid-January and now that all of (or most of anyway) the holiday goodies have been digested, it’s time to start ingesting draft preparation content!

For those new to this series, my definition of “impact” may be different than others. By impact I mean primarily, “what are the odds they will play in the Majors and how much.” How good are they? Well that’s what the rest of the article is about.

Why this focus? This is elementary of course for re-draft leaguers whose prospect context is only that of a single season. For keeper leaguers (particularly auction-style), I believe focusing on players who are likely to get the call in 2013 is an important mindset for your taxi-squad or minor league draft. If you are in it for 2013, a similar mindset to a re-draft leaguer is necessary. This is beneficial for two reasons. Either (A) you draft a player with the intention that he will contribute this season and vault into your lineup at a low price (particularly if your league utilizes a cap) and provide needed stats or (B) you use that player for leveraging veterans from other players.

The “Impact Prospects” are the most attractive targets for dumping teams as they look towards contending the following season. “Impact Prospects” provide a statistical need at a low price, allowing for auction leaguers to redistribute their budget with great flexibility, opening up a number of strategic options whether they throw all their eggs into offense, or pitching, a stars and scrubs strategy, or whatever else they choose.

There is an exception, of course, to selecting just players who will impact 2013. And that is the uber-prospects that not only have the tools but have high-level skills that suggest they will be potential All-Stars.  Of course, these types of players should be drafted regardless of whether they will actually play in the upcoming season.

And now, the Catchers for 2013!

The Marlins picked up Rob Brantly in the Anibal Sanchez deal and now have him penciled in as their #1 catcher. The 23-year-old is perhaps most comparable to fellow lefty, Josh Thole. The lefty has a fairly disciplined bat and makes consistent contact but is a single-digits HR type without a high ceiling. I recommend him as an end-game, #2 catcher option who could out-earn his projection depending on how well his batting average skills hold up over the course of an entire season.

Travis D'Arnaud gives the Mets the best young catcher they’ve had in their minors since Todd Hundley. D’Arnaud combines a quick, short stroke and legitimate 20+ HR power. Given an aggressive approach and “catcher speed”, there could be quite a variance in the batting average department on a year to year basis. For now, the safest best is to expect a .260 mark and treat anything better as gravy. The righty could start 2013 as the Mets’ starter or spend the first half of the season in Triple-A.

Jason Hagerty makes this article thanks to the suspension of Yasmani Grandal, who will miss the first 50 games of the MLB season. The former fifth round pick combines a fairly good understanding of the strike zone with double-digit home run potential. The switch-hitter's shortcomings, however, are on the defensive side of the ball and this could regulate him to being an organizational player.

Chris Herrmann earned a cup of coffee with the Twins last season and could challenge Drew Butera for the backup catching gig this spring. Butera may have a leg up in the defensive department, but Herrmann is at least average defensively and is strong armed. Being a lefty with gap power and a very solid plate approach could put Herrmann over the top. An interesting sleeper should anything happen to Joe Mauer.

The Phillies have two catching prospects in their upper Minors in Sebastian Valle and Tommy Joseph. The former, Valle, was the reason the Phillies traded D’Arnaud as part of the package for Roy Halladay. Right now, it looks like the wrong decision. Valle has good raw power and defensive chops but is ultra-aggressive at the plate. This became increasingly apparent at both Double-A and Triple-A and it's likely he will be made mincemeat of in the Majors absent a complete plate approach turnaround. 21-year-old Tommy Joseph could end up spending a second season in Double-A or could earn a promotion to Triple-A, though that depends a lot on whether or not the former second-round pick stays behind the plate. Joseph is not in Valle’s class defensively but could be adequate in the long run. At the plate, the righty has greater raw power than Valle, a slightly less aggressive approach and has shown better signs of making contact. While both players could certainly make the Majors as soon as this season, I suspect neither may end up starters for the Phillies.

The White Sox’s Josh Phegley has no proven starter in front of him at the MLB level which gives him a chance to make it. The former supplemental first- round pick was a slugger in college who earned mixed reviews for his defense and bat speed. Health concerns have slowed him down and the righty has yet to reach double digits in any minor league season. He's probably an organizational player, but there may be opportunities given the Sox lack of catching depth.

Austin Romine is likely to start 2013 in Triple-A with Chris Stewart and Francisco Cervelli at the MLB level. Romine is not a high-ceiling player but is a solid defensive player with fair plate discipline skills, an ability to make contact and gap power. There may be enough here to make the former second-round pick a low-end starter, though he probably profiles better as a backup.

The Mariners are blessed with catching depth. Jesus Montero will open 2013 as the starting catcher and for a 22-year old, actually held his own quite well, already translating some power and contact skills, though his plate discipline lagged behind. Defensively, Montero is adequate at best though and it is only a matter of time before he is forced to shift positions, particularly with 2012 third overall pick Mike Zunino hot on his heels.

Zunino is a superior defensive catcher to Montero and that skill is greatest factor that will get him to the Majors. The righty and so far in the lower minors has shown fairly advanced plate discipline and contact-making skills. The righty also showed above-average power and projects long-term to be a 20+ HR hitter as compared to Montero who could still be an upper twenties or better HR hitter at his peak. Keep in mind that Zunino is a fairly slow runner, so even with his power and contact-making skills, hitting for average is not a given. Just ask Matt Wieters. It will be interesting to see how his skills translate to the upper minors.

It is possible that Zunino could begin 2013 in Triple-A, but they can afford to take it slow with him given Montero’s presence and the fact that Zunino has just 57 plate appearances at the Double-A level and will turn 22 just before the start of the season. Barring injury to Montero, a post All-Star break call-up at earliest seems most likely.

To Review:

Possible MLB Phase Draft/Auction Selections:
Rob Brantly, Travis D’Arnaud, Erik Kratz

Possible Minor League Draft Phase Selections:
Mike Zunino, Sebastian Valle, Tommy Joseph, Austin Romine

Possible In-season Pick-Ups:
Jason Hagerty, Chris Herrmann, Josh Phegley

If you have any questions on players who you felt were omitted from this article, please feel free to ask. 

With the Rule-5 draft now in the books, here are some first impressions!

For as long as I can remember, an “all in” approach has been my favored strategy for keeper leagues. When going for the gold, do everything needed to win. Trade every last prospect, every last potential keeper. Then typically the subsequent year, having most likely drained keeper resources, or simply when a team has too many injuries or there are other mitigating issues that will most likely preclude victory, do the opposite. Do everything in one’s power to acquire potential keepers, trading every last commodity you have to assemble options for the following season.   Generally, If one tries too hard to play with one foot in the current season and the other foot in the following, chances are that that team will end up somewhere in the middle of the standings both years. As an aside, in leagues where teams are able to still able to win and have a good stash of keepers, it is likely a sign that there is some sort of market inefficiency occurring where not all team owners are as active as they should.

Keeper leagues often have a period that starts out with a trickle, then an avalanche, as teams decide to dump. Typically the team that starts the avalanche does the best as they have targeted the keepers they want and then attempt to pull the trigger on a trade or multiple trades all on the same day to engineer the outcome they desire. From there on it is something of a scramble that can leave a league with more than half the teams having dumped.

What does this mean? It means there are a heck a lot of points available to team so inclined to grab them.

The Gotham Baseball Club

Heading into the 2012 season, one team was heavily favored to win given the work that had been done to build an amazing keeper crop (AL only, 12 teams, 8 keepers max for those scoring at home). After draft day it became even more obvious it was that team’s season to lose and for much of the season that team had a significant lead over the rest of the competition, but it slowly bled away, particularly within the final six weeks of the season.

So what went wrong? The team owner had made several trades to sew up some weaknesses, but failed to make it airtight. Injuries to Jason Hammel, Colby Lewis, and a few others certainly did not help either. Regardless, given the massive lead, the owner tried to play two seasons at once, hanging onto keepable commodities. Hammel, Jeremy Hellickson, Eric Hosmer, Desmond Jennings, and Jake Marisnick were and still all are still rostered when they could have earned enough in return to perhaps lock off first place or at the very least direct talent away from competitor’s rosters. However, the owner’s inaction forced dumping teams to seek other willing trade partners. One team who had been considering dumping, instead went all in and was willing to deal Mike Trout (while still in the minors mind you)  and Jurickson Profar amongst others while targeting specific categories that would provide the most points to be gained. The result? That team that was willing to take a chance at sacrificing its future that future came back from a 30+ point deficit to win by six.

So the lessons to be learned here:

I  hope the 2012 season has been good for all my readers. Next week while we enjoy the playoffs I’ll be turning my writing gaze completely towards 2013.