Mastersball

The line drive to Brandon McCarthy’s head was truly frightening to behold. Fortunately, the A’s right hander is already on the road to recovery, out of the ICU, and even walking again following surgery to relieve pressure on his brain.  I wish him nothing but the best of luck as he makes his way back to baseball for the 2013 season.

Quietly in the meanwhile, 23-year old right-hander Dan Straily has been filling in for him admirably with two of his three starts being high-quality. Straily was a fairly late (24^th round) pick by the A’s out of Marshall University in West Virginia. He’s long been thought of as more of an organizational player or fringe prospect, but forced the A’s hand over time, translating his ability to miss bats and throw strikes to each level of the minors. While none of his pitches are considered special, Straily has four offerings, featuring a low to mid-nineties fastball while mixing in his slider and change effectively. As a fly-ball pitcher, Straily benefits from his home field, but will have to have his command spot-on to succeed. Long term he now profiles as a fourth or fifth starter if he can keep the ball the in the park. Amongst the currently available talent in most AL only leagues, he is probably amongst the better options.

On the hitting side of things, the Phillies recently recalled first basemen Darin Ruf from Double-A reading. Like Straily, Ruf has a similar 20^th-plus round pedigree out Creighton. The righty has never been noted for his defensive skills or been considered a significant power threat until this season. What he has done is show a disciplined, contact-driven approach that has allowed him to post solid batting average and OBP numbers over his minor league career. At Reading he has busted out of nowhere, slugging .608 with 38 homers without much change to his approach at the plate.

Ruf was not drafted for his tools and is old for his league at 26 years of age and could well be overmatched at the Major League level, especially given the two level gap. That said, he has nothing really left to prove in the minors. The question is where he will play and whether the Phiillies will even bother giving him a chance considering Ryan Howard man’s first base and that Ruf is defensively inadequate elsewhere. My advice here: don’t let the numbers draw you in for much of a bid. Ruf probably will not receive much playing time and is a fair bet to return to the minors in 2013 as organizational filler.

The Orioles meanwhile added to their roster depth with the recall of L.J. Hoes.  Hoes is former second basemen whose defensive shortcomings have pushed him to an outfield position. The 22-year old has played well at two levels in 2012, continuing to show an ability to make contact and get on base as well as above average speed with 20 steals. The righty lacks power for a corner outfielder and his bat has always profiled best at his original position or centerfield. An expectation beyond low-single digits per season HR power is unwarranted. While Hoes has some skills and talents that could be useful for fantasy and real baseball purposes alike, the sum total of those talents and skills suggest he is more of a utility player long term regardless of the fact that he is a former 3^rd round pick. Like Xavier Avery, expect Hoes to see minimal playing time while the Orioles attempt to make the post season.

Changing gears to players still in the minors, Mikie Mahtook was a fairly prominent signing of the Rays as the 31^st overall selection in the 2011 draft out of Louisiana State. When he was drafted, he was considered a fairly solid all-around player without necessarily any one outstanding tool, but  someone who had produced quite well at the college level. In his first full season of professional ball, the righty has played at two minor levels (A+ and AA) showing similar skils at both levels. Mahtook has made a moderate amount of contact, but also shown a tendency to be a bit overly aggressive and his on base numbers have suffered as a result. His game really only fits as a centerfielder (mid-teens per season pop and 20+ stolen base potential), but unless he proves to be superior defensively there, I am not seeing him as a starter at the moment given a lack of overwhelming tools and very mediocre on base skills.

Sticking with the 2011 first round we come to Levi Michael who was taken 30^th overall by the Twins out of UNC. He was a favorite of mine and a bit of sleeper heading into the season given the advertised combination of advanced plate discipline, solid shortstop defense, and speed skills. Alas it does not look like it was meant to be. The 21-year old has played the entire season at A+ ball and has looked overmatch despite showing on-base and contact- making skills. The pitchers have held him to an extremely unimpressive .246 batting average, 0.65 isolated power, and overall .650 OPS. Unless he makes a dramatic turnaround in 2013, Michael will quickly become a non-prospect.

In the same vein, we have the Cardinals Kolten Wong. A second basemen out of Hawaii and the 22^nd pick overall, Wong was projected with similar OBP skills, but better bat speed and power potential than Michael. The lefty has responded quite well, making contact 87% of the time while posting a .287 .348 .405 line along with 21 steals and 9 roundtrippers. While not earth shattering, Wong at least offers the potential of a major league starter who could hit in the .280s and perhaps provide double digit homers and steals for the Cardinals down the road.

Jurickson Profar’s call-up pretty much blows away the field of September call-ups. Despite being only 19 years of age, the Ranger’s aggressively promoted him and are giving him a sample of what it is like to be a Major Leaguer. Given that his arbitration clock has now started, one would think they intend to play him full time. However, Ian Kinsler, Adrian Beltre, and Elvis Andrus will all still be under contract , so unless Profar or someone else is making a move to the OF (will Josh Hamilton depart?), there is no opportunity. Unless, the Rangers make a trade.

Getting to Profar’s skills, the young righty has held his own at the Double-A level. First off, we are talking about a teenager with advanced plate discipline that walks nearly 12% of the time while making contact over 85% of the time.

Not only does he have plate discipline and the ability to make contact, but he has the speed and punch behind it to accomplish something with 14 round-trippers and 47 overall extra-base hits to go along with 16 steals and 7 triples that indicate his speed.

Long-term this is a 20-20+ .300+ hitting tools and skills threat that could, given his discipline and ability to make contact, translate quickly to the Majors.

Short-term, this is a cup of coffee. The Rangers are in the pennant chase and Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler should see most of the action in the middle infield with Profar getting starts here and there.

Over in the NL, the Diamondbacks recalled Adam Eaton on Tuesday. Not to be confused with the pitcher, Eaton is a 23-year old outfielder with interesting plate discipline and speeds skills. The lefty is not a complete waste in the power department and has smacked 58 extra base hits this year, but only 7 of them went out of the park.  I’m not sure he will ever get a shot at being an everyday player given the presence of A.J. Pollock who has similar to slightly better talent and tools ahead of him, but this is someone to simply note and watch as a potential platoon or surprise starter who would not hurt you in the average and stolen base department at all.

The Braves brought back both Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado, but have no rotation spots with which to give them. Teheran was expected to possibly be an integral part of the Braves rotation this year, but instead was up for a single spot start. In Triple-A the results have been less than ideal. The righty sported a 5+ ERA and has been trending downwards for four seasons in the strikeout rate department. The 21-year old’s issues appear to be command related as he continues to throw strikes, but gets hit hard and is not hitting his spots as well. Hopefully no injury is being hidden here. Randall Delgado was up for 17 starts with the Braves this year and got a decent share of swings and misses, but like at the minor league level, Delgado has not shown ability to consistently throw strikes (4+ BB/9 at all levels in 2012) and the results have been mediocre at best. Suddenly two pitchers who looked like they could be locks for the rotation by mid-season and beyond are starting to look suspect. For the Braves’ sake, Kris Medlen picked the right time to fully recover from Tommy John surgery.

Sticking with the NL East, the Mets called up two of their more highly noted right-handers in Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia.  Familia, 22, has been in the Buffalo rotation all season long where he has shown a power arm and ability to miss bats. He has, however, been unable to find the plate like he did at two minor league stops in 2011. The Mets will use him in relief the rest of the season and given his power fastball/slider combination, keeping him there might not be a bad idea. Mejia has been used as both a reliever and as a starter this year. Like Familia, his long-term role, has yet to be determined. At least, when healthy, Mejia has shown some appitude for changing speeds which could get him more opportunities to remain a starter. The most encouraging sign has been the righty’s ability to throw strikes at two minor leagues while coming back from Tommy John surgery. The huge drop off in K/9 at Triple-A, however, is not. Mejia may get an opportunity to make a start or two this September, but if I need help in the ERA/WHIP department, I wouldn’t recommend adding him.

On a happier note Tyler Thornburg has cruised through the Brewer’s system, pitching at three levels including a brief MLB stint, in 2012. The 23-year old was solid in 13 Double-A starts and ended up in being even more dominant at Triple-A, raising his K/9 from 8.5 to 10.0 all while keeping his walk rates around the 3.0 mark. The short right-hander has three pitch arsenal including a good changeup and profiles well as a middle of the rotation starter.  The Majors have not been kind to him over a small 5-game sample, so buy at your own risk.

Finally, the Brewers also brought up Wily Peralta. Heading into the season Peralta was perhaps the most notable pitcher in their system. The 23-year old has continued to strikeout almost a batter per inning in his first full year at Triple-A, but was far less able to command the strikezone with any consistency and posted a 4.79 BB/9 and 4.66 ERA. His stuff is that of a #3 to #2 starter or late inning reliever and he has a decent enough changeup to stay a starter, but will need to get back to what he showed in his previous seasons to do so.

September is a fascinating month in baseball and not just because the pennant chase is in the final stretch. I’m of course talking about September call-ups. It is the time of year when teams can get some glimpses of their team’s young talent at the MLB level and what the future may hold for their team’s lineup or rotation next season and beyond.

For redraft leagues and contending teams in keeper leagues, the September call-up period can be a source of some frustration as these players can steal playing time. They’re also simply not realiable to do much of significance over a month’s time. You’re talking about 100 or so at-bats tops and perhaps five starts. Given the transition to a new level, the likelihood is a lot more is going to go wrong over a small sample size than good. So if you are in contention, you should not be hanging your hat on the impact of a few September call-ups to get you that extra point or two.

For keeper leaguers, particularly those playing for next year, September is like being a kid in a  candy store. You want to stash a little extra FAAB or acquire it if your league allows, while on the other hand you don’t want to overpay as you want these youngsters at keepable prices. So FAAB becomes a chess match.

My advice: nickel and dime it. In other words, don’t bid under a nickel. You likely won’t get them unless they’re a more under the radar prospect. If you’re bidding over a dime, then you’re probably bidding too close or over full value for the following season. Better to let someone else overpay. Exception to that rule, however, might be a speedster with some good contact-hitting/on-base skills.

All that said, here are some call-ups to watch.

Dylan Bundy might just crack the Orioles' rotation in a week. Yes, he is only 19, but the righty is already on the 40-man roster and the Orioles, though they are in contention, do not have a strong staff and could use a power arm. It might be a bit much to expect greatness out of him given a two-level jump at his age, but Bundy is quite arguably the best pitching prospect currently in the Minors with an already deep repertoire and good feel for pitching. He’s most likely already drafted in most keeper leagues, but just in case he’s not, Bundy’s a must-have.

Continuing with pitching prospects, the Cardinals are likely to promote Shelby Miller next week. It is a bit uncertain where he will plug into the rotation or whether the Cardinals may move to a 6-man rotation. But then again, we’re really just focused on 2013 here. In 26 starts at Memphis, Miller has posted a 10.5 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9. The 21-year-old potential future ace throws regularly in the mid-nineties, hits the upper nineties and overall has a 3-plus pitch arsenal.

For those impressed with Collin McHugh’s debut last week and disappointed by his demotion, fear not. OK, he’s really just a back end of the rotation starter long-term who works mostly in the eighties. But one hast to respect his ability to change speeds, throw strikes, and generate swings and misses despite a lack of overpowering stuff. He’s not  a bad play as a $1 potential keeper.

Moving on to hitters, the Royals will finally bring Wil Myers to the Majors. He should push Frenchie to the bench, and while the Royals' defense may suffer as a result of that move, Myers has a very intriguing power and patience combination. As a right-handed hitter who strikes out more than a fifth of the time, however, I will be very curious to see how his ability to hit for average translates to the Majors short and long term. The 30+ HR power, however, is for real.

Sticking with the Royals, I mentioned Jake Odorizzi last week in my impact prospect retrospective. He too will get the call and should earn a few September starts and could start laying the foundation for opening 2013 in the middle of their rotation.

Over in the National League, perhaps the most highly anticipated hitter is Jedd Gyorko of the Padres who will take over as their starting second baseman. I have some doubts that he will stay at second long-term, but he’ll be there as long as Chase Headley remains a Padre at the very least. As long as he does stay at second, however, he is quite exciting as a disciplined hitter who makes fairly regular contact and has 20+ HR power. He has a chance to be the next Jeff Kent.

Sticking with NL hitters, the Astros are a team certainly with openings and Marc Krauss might get a prime opportunity. He was acquired in exchange for Chris Johnson and could easily end up the better player long-term. While his upside is as a left fielder and possible platoon player, Krauss has high-teens to low-twenties per season HR power and good OBP skills. The move to the AL next year could put Krauss in a situation where he could be a top candidate for playing time at both OF and DH.

Next we’ll see who indeed got the call and take an in-depth look at some of the notables.

This week we spend more time looking back at some of my pre-season AL impact starting pitcher picks.

Detroit

Drew Smyly was one of my favorites entering the spring and managed to secure a starting job with the Tigers, beating out the likes of Jacob Turner (since traded to Miami) and Andy Oliver. Smyly turned in some very nice peripherals over 15 starts (8.5 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9) but went on the shelf and then found himself without a job given the Tigers' playoff hunt. While the lefty is still getting plenty of strikeouts at Triple-A, his usually very good control is well off and it shows in his 6+ ERA. Given that, I am not convinced Smyly is entirely healthy. Health willing, he is on target though for a rotation slot to begin 2013 and also a likely September call-up to pitch in long relief.

The aforementioned Turner was one of the centerpieces of the Anibal Sanchez/Omar Infante trade. He had some shoulder issues late last season and earlier this year too and has not been missing bats at any of his three stops. I’m very concerned that the Marlins may have bought damaged goods. I may also be simply being too hard on this 21-year-old, who is young for the level he is pitching at and may simply need to add further refinement to his secondary stuff to raise those strikeout numbers.

23-year-old Casey Crosby continues to have upper end stuff but cannot command it. I’m seeing his future in relief. Andy Oliver, who was one of the frontrunners for the fifth slot earlier this year, is in a similar boat and has in fact pitched some in relief in Triple-A this season. The lefty is striking out nearly a batter per inning, but is also walking nearly 7 batters per nine innings.

Kansas City

Continuing with the disappointment theme brings us to Mike Montgomery, who not only hasn’t been promoted to the Royals but who has in fact ended up being demoted from Triple-A to Double-A. The results have been entirely too similar at each level with mediocre control and command, mediocre (sub 7.0 K/9) strikeout rates and ERAs over 5.00 at both stops. Reports out there indicate it is not a velocity issue and it may be more of a mental/mechanical issue, though I have to wonder if it might be an elbow issue. That last part is pure speculation, but something is clearly amiss and I’m now very wary of the young righty.

Given the Royals' struggles with starting pitching, it is a bit surprising that Jake Oderozzi has yet to get the call. I suspect that will happen come September though! The righty has pitched at two levels, showing better skills at Double-A, but having better success in Triple-A. That pretty much sums up how useful ERA is as an indicator of anything at all. I still believe he has middle of the rotation potential and he’s worthy of note for keeper leaguers and AL-only redraft leaguers looking for some possible late-season starts.

Chris Dwyer is another promotion candidate who has pitched at two minor league levels in 2012 despite mediocre control and strikeout rates, and fairly awful results to go with them. I stand by my pre-season thought that he needs a transfer to the bullpen after two straight seasons of struggling as a starter.

Finally, it has been Will Smith out of all these Royals' starters who has gotten the most playing time. While his fifth starter potential at the Majors has been quite apparent, he has thrown strikes and at times shown the plus command he showed in the Minors. Smith is all about working a very fine line, and with experience could be a capable innings eater at the MLB level.

Los Angeles

Garrett Richards’ stint with the Angels was a mixed bag, as he at times showed flashes of plus talent but at other times looked very much like a rookie. It’s all about command here and Richards, while he improved his strikeout rates in the Minors to 7+, still is not quite there yet. He’ll get another chance next season once a few of the Angels' playoff drive starters for 2012 depart. Zack Greinke will be a free agent and Ervin Santana has a $13 million option with a $1 million buyout, so it is fair to say that at least one of these two won’t be back for 2013.

If Garrett Richards can no longer crack the Angels’ deep rotation, it is not surprising to see that neither Trevor Reckling nor Orangel Arenas have received MLB time this year. In the pre-season, I suspected both of these pitchers would end up in relief long-term. Reckling has barely pitched this year, working in A+ ball before being released. It may be the end of the line for him. Arenas’ game has shown little development. He is still a hittable sinker-ball pitcher with solid, but not excellent command.

Minnesota

I have oft compared Liam Hendriks to the Twins’ next Brad Radke.  Remember, Brad Radke was absolutely awful earlier in his caree and Hendriks deserves some patience too. The righty has been solid in Triple-A, throwing strikes (though not as good as in previous yeras) while getting strikeouts. Missing bats is something he still needs to do in the Majors. While he is no future ace, given experience and time to acclimate himself to the Majors, Hendriks can still be a competent middle of the rotation starter.

Next week we take a break from reminiscing and take a closer look at potential September call-ups!

This spring I covered 42 American League minor league pitchers who might make an impact on the 2012 season. It’s time we checked up on some of their progresses.

Baltimore
Oliver Drake started the season at Double-A and made a total of three starts and has not pitched since May 28^th. He’s been on the DL since. When healthy he profiles best as a back-end-of-the-rotation starter or as a middle reliever.

Boston
Alex Wilson has not made the Majors and I suspected in my original writeup his best role probably in relief. The righty’s made 3 starts, but appeared in 32 games as a reliever for Pawtucket where he has struck out more than a batter per inning. A September call-up is quite possible.

Chicago
Nestor Molina has spent all but one starter in Double-A where the righty continues to be an excellent strike-thrower (2.1 BB/9). However, his K/9 has dropped to a sub 7.0 per nine level and overall he’s been hit fairly hard with a 4.70 ERA. I questioned this ability to change speeds and it is possible that this part of his development (or lack thereof) is showing up a little at Double-A. Long term Molina is starting to look like a sinker-baller who pitches to a fair amount of contact.

Simon Castro has had a more successful year and has been with the Triple-A club for 5 starts. Castro is very similar to Molina as a good strike-throwing  fastball/slider guy who lacks a change. The walk rates have translated well to Triple-A, but he is missing fewer bats over the small sample and will need to work to improve that. Castro’s another guy I would not be surprised to see end up in relief.

Charlie Leesman, the veteran lefty of this group, is on the one-level-at-a-time plan and has made 23 Triple-A starters. It is somewhat surprising he has not gotten the call as his strikeout rates have translated very well from Double-A to Triple-A and his command is much improved over his 2011 campaign. The view that he is more of an organizational pitcher/5^th starter at best type probably explains it, but I’d still be surprised if he does not get a September call-up considering hie is on the 40-man roster.

Dylan Axelrod has been up and down with the big club appearing in 10 total games and making 6 starts and despite not having the highest ceiling, has the deepest repertoire and understanding of pitching. To that effect, Axelrod has translated his control skills swimmingly from Double-A to Triple-A to the Majors. More interestingly, he has been able to fool even major league hitters with a 7+ K/9. I still don’t think he’s much more than a back end of the rotation type, but he could easily end up being the most effective long-term of this foursome.

Cleveland

Austin Adams was certainly a favorite of mine heading into the season with the expectation he would begin in Triple-A. The 5’11 right-hander but has not thrown a pitch this year. Instead he underwent arthroscopic surgery on his pitching shoulder in late May and has been recovering since then.

Zach McAllister has made a larger impact this season than expected. The righty has already exhausted his rookie eligibility and has 17 MLB starts under his belt between late last season and this year.  His ability to locate all 4 of his pitches and show a good curve have allowed him to fully replicate his skills at the MLB level. While he certainly is showing the skills of a middle-of-the-rotation starter, it remains to be seen how his high fly-ball rates will hold up over time. Still, the Indians have at the very least what looks to be a competent innings eater in McAllister.

Like McAllister, Scott Barnes has spent time on the Indians roster. However, the left-hander has spent his time in 2012 almost entirely in relief at both the Triple-A and MLB level. I didn’t see the conversion coming considering a 4-pitch arsenal, but nevertheless, Barnes has seen his strikeout rates jump upwards with the move, but also has seen a decline in his strikeout rates. For now, his future seems to be in middle relief.

I didn’t think very highly of either Matt Packer or T.J. McFarland heading into the season, figuring both would end up in swing roles or middle relief. Packer has instead missed much of the season due to a rotator cuff strain. Since coming back in late June he has advanced from rookie ball to A+, to AA, and finally to Triple-A where he has been hammered in his first two appearances. McFarland, on the other hand, has been healthy and made a combined 23 starts between Double-A and Triple-A, showing above average command. His strikeout rates, however, have dropped dramatically at the Triple-A level to sub 5.0. The lefty is a pitch to contact, ground-ball, so it is not that surprising. To have success, however, he’ll have to replicate his Double-A 1.8 to the higher levels.

More pitching next week!

It is hard to believe that already two months have passed since the 2012 draft. Given the quick signing deadline of the new collective bargaining agreement, we have some initial samplings of many of the highly ranked prospects. These may not be significant samples, but at least we are starting to get some sort of track record.

The Twins Byron Buxton, a true 5-tools player, is showing power and speed with 4 HRs and 4 steals in just over 100 plate appearances. He’s taking a good amount of free passes, but is also striking out a quarter of the time and batting just .216.  I am not concerned at the moment given his youth and a suppressed BABIP, but as with all righties who strike out at high rates, I keep in mind the possibility that he could end up a right-handed platoon player.

Kyle Zimmer, one of my favorites on draft day has already been promoted from short season A-ball to full season A-ball. Overall he’s made 6 starts and in 4 of them he has not walked a batter. In only one start has he walked 3 or more batters while at the same time fanning well more than a batter per inning. Clearly, Zimmer needs to face better competition, but that will probably occur next year with a promotion to A+ ball.

Mike Zunino was perhaps the most highly coveted college hitter in the amateur draft. So far the Mariners have not pushed him, placing him in rookie ball in the Northwest league. As the Mariners expected and one would have hoped, the righty is dominating the competition, batting over .300 while showing quality plate discipline and quite a bit more power with 7 homers and an ungodly .326 isolated power. Long term I still think he’s around the high-teens to low-twenties home run range and it will be interesting to see how his power translates as he proceeds up the minors. Like Zimmer, I suspect he’ll start 2012 in at least A+ ball, if not Double-A.

Taking a slight step back in time to the 2011 baseball amateur draft, Bubba Starling has gotten his first taste of professional ball, playing rookie-ball and so far I must say I’m impressed. Like Buxton, Starling has five-tool potential. However, I was not expecting it to be so apparent so quickly. The right has dominated the competition with 7 homers, 5 stolen bases while walking over 12% of the time. Yes, his .380 BABIP is elevating his batting average and as with Buxton, I share the same righty-power hitter skepticism. Still, one just has to like how someone who is only barely twenty years of age is already dominating the level of competition. Most likely he will be in full season low-A ball next year.

Sticking with high school outfielders, the Mets Brandon Nimmo is getting his first extended experience in professional ball with the Brooklyn Cyclones. While Nimmo is not putting up gaudy numbers, he is showing solid plate discipline and developing power. The lefty has yet to steal a base and the jury is out as to whether he will ever be a threat there given knee surgery as a high schooler.

One player expected to move through the Padres system quickly was 10th overall pick Cory Spangenberg. He has indeed already played at three levels over a  short professional career, but has spent the entire season at A+ ball where the results have been rather underwhelming producing a .278 .325 .368 line with 22 steals. The expectations of a  disciplined hitter with 10 to 15 HR potential have not been met and it does not help that the second basemen’s defense has earned sub-par reviews.  Right now Spangenberg is on a utility player at best career path  unless things starting turning around this season and next.

Sticking with the class of 2011, I remember being intrigued by the Brewers selection of two college hurlers in the first round in the former of Taylor Jungmann and Jed Bradley. Jungmann, 22, has spent the entire year in A+ ball and has thrown strikes and kept the ball in the park, and kept a modest 3.79 ERA, but  has failed to show much ability to miss bats (5.4 K/9). The overall results suggest Jungmanni is on a one-level at a time career path, but his secondary pitches still need a good deal more refinement if he wants to be more than a back end of the rotation starter. Former Yellow jacket Jed Bradley has been in almost the same situation, but with mediocre to sub-par command, a strikeout rate of 5.0 and ERA over 5.00. One has to wonder if there is some malady affecting him. As it stands right now, the Brewers could easily come up empty on what could have become the core of their future rotation.

Moving back to hitters, C.J. Cron has inherited his dad’s power for sure with 20 homeruns compiled in 476 plate appearances. Over two seasons of professional ball, he has put 33 of them out of the yard in under 600 at-bats. Cron’s shortcoming, however is his aggressiveness. While he is making contact 88% of the time in A+ ball, he’s walking just 3-percent. At some point, as he moves up the ladder, he is going to start getting fewer things near the strikezone and it will be interesting then to see just how well his strikeout rates hold up. Right now, if he can make the majors as a starter, he fits the mold of better fantasy player than real life player. I could see a .280 .320 .500 performance or two in his future.

This week we continue to look at the prospects acquired by teams prior to the July 31^st non-waiver trade deadline.

Kansas City

The non-contending Royals moved their closer, Jonathan Broxton, to the Reds in exchange for Donnie Joseph and J.C. Sulbaran. Greg Holland will get first crack at the closer’s job, but long-term the best bet may be Kelvin Herrera.

Joseph is a 24-year old left-handed reliever who is close to MLB ready. He has consistently struck out at least a batter per inning and is a power fastball/slider guy who has potential as a left-handed specialist reliever.  Sulbaran, 23, is a righty has 2 to 3 potential plus pitches, he has command and mechanical issues that have generally pushed his walk rates over the 4.0 mark.  I’d like to see him moved to relief.

Arizona

Tyler Bortnick was the spoils of the Ryan Roberts deal. The former 16^th rounder has solid plate discipline and above average base-running skills. Despite these attributes, he has struggled to hit for average in the upper minors and it looks like is being overpowered by the higher level of competition. Utility player.

Colorado

Charlie Culberson was acquired for Marco Scutaro. A right-handed hitting second basemen, Culberson is aggressive with mid-teens HR potential.  In his last two minor league seasons, he has failed to eclipse the .300 OBP mark, so while he has talent, the skill is not there to make him a starter. If we could Frankenstein Bortnick and Culberson together, we would have a player to get quite excited about.

Philadelphia

The Phillies continued their rebuilding process by moving two-thirds of their starting outfield to the NLW. Shane Victorino garnered them Josh Lindblom and Ethan Martin from the Dodgers while Hunter Pence landed Tommy Joseph, Nate Schierholtz, and Seth Rosin. Schierholtz and Domonic Brown should now start.

I’ve discussed Lindblom quite a bit.  He’s a fly-ball pitcher who works in the low to mid-nineties and is known for a good slider and workable changeup. He’ll pitch in a setup role for the Phillies behind Jonathan Papelbon. Martin, 23, moved back to a starting role in 2012. His command has been better this year and he is missing bats, but he still has trouble commanding his secondary pitches. I still see him as a reliever despite the fact that he has four pitches.

Tommy Joseph has improved his play enough to stay behind the plate and this is exciting considering he is no longer behind Buster Posey and the fact that he has 20+ HR pop. I’d like to see him improve his plate discipline as a .313 OBP will not cut it at the big league level.  Seth Rosin is a potential middle reliever with a plus sinkerball that he commands extremely well along with a mediocre change and curve.

Chicago NL

The Cubs were one of the most active teams picking up 5 players for Paul Maholm, Reed Johnson, Geovany Soto, and Ryan Dempster. From the Braves, they are taking a gamble on Arodys Vizcaino who is working his way back from Tommy John surgery. When healthy he is a power pitching fastball/slider reliever with closer potential. Jaye Chapman, 25, is another reliever, but is the opposite of Vizcaino, He works mostly in the 80s, relying on his ability to change speeds to miss bats, but control does remain an issue with Chapman as well.

Jacob Brigham came over from Texas where he was pitching for the second straight year in Double-A. The 24-year old profiles as a back end of the rotation starter or Triple-A roster filler. But considering Soto’s decline, it’s far from surprising the Cubs didn’t get a tremendous prospect in return.

In a separate deal with Texas for Dempster, the Cubs added Christian Villanueva and Kyle Hendricks. Villanueva, 21, is an aggressive hitter with 20 HR potential. He has regressed plate discipline-wise and has not brought as much thunder, but is young for his level. The righty has starter potential, but looks a bit like a borderline major leaguer at the moment. Hendricks, 22, is a strike-throwing machine posting a 1.0 BB/9 in 130.2 innings at A+ ball. It will be interesting to see how his  7.7 K/9 translates to the upper levels of the minors as he is not a hard thrower. The move to the NL could be a good fit.

Seattle

In exchange for Brandon League, the Mariners acquired Leon Landry and Logan Bowcam. Landry is a toolsy outfielder with mid-teens homer and 20+ steal potential. That said, the lefty makes consistent contact, but is ultra aggressive and is not a long-term threat in the OBP department. His most likely route to the Majors is through his speed and defense. Bawcom is a right-handed reliever who has been closing in Double-A, but has pretty average overall stuff and moderate command. His upside is middle relief.

Houston

The Astros made deals with the Diamondbacks and Pirates, trading Chris Johnson for Bobby Borchering and Marc Krauss . Krauss is an interesting 24-year old outfielder with high-teens to low-twenties power potential and excellent plate discipline. Krauss is certainly old to be playing in Double-A and needs a challenge ASAP. He could be anything from an organizational player to an everyday left fielder. Borchering is a 21-year old switch-hitter with 25+ HR potential, but is limited defensively (best position is DH) and  is known for striking out more than a quarter of the time. Borchering is young enough to improve, but appears to be on an organizational player career path.

Wandy Rodriguez was dealt for the trio of Rudy Owens, Colton Cain, and Robbie Grossman. Owens is a control-artist whose stock has declined since 2010. None of the lefty’s pitches are a plus pitch and he’s looking more like a back end of the rotation starter. Cain is also a left-handed starter, but throws harder and has multiple plus-pitch potential. Overall Cain is a work in progress and his upside too is probably back end of the rotation. Grossman is a former sixth round pick noted for his advanced plate discipline. He has decent speed as well and can play all three outfield positions, but has limited power potential (low-teens per season). If the cards fall his way, he could get a chance to start, but long-term he probably profiles best as a fourth outfielder.

Minnesota

In exchange for Francisco Liriano the Twins added shortstop Eduardo Escobar and left-handed starter Pedro Hernandez. Escobar has well above average defensive skills. His offensive ceiling is more limited, but he does make fairly consistent contact, has some gap power, and a little speed. I still like him best as a utility guy long-term. Hernandez has excellent command and control, but does not miss bats even at the minor league level. Not much to see here.

Milwaukee

Zack Greinke moves to the Angels where he has pushed Garrett Richards from the rotation. Jean Segura was the key of the deal and is quite possibly the best prospect acquired at the deadline. The righty is an aggressive hitter, making frequent contact with 10 to 15 HR along with 30+ stolen base potential. Presently in Double-A for now, Segura could be the Brewers starter by mid-2013. Ariel Pena and  Johnny Hellweg will be joining Segura in Double-A. Pena is a 23-year old right-handed starter with excellent raw power stuff. He has improved his control, but is still mostly a fastball/slider guy who profiles best in the bullpen. Hellweg is the better prospect, armed with a mid-nineties fastball, good curve, and solid change, but lacks overall control. His 4.51 BB/9 is by far the best of his young career.

Miami

The Marlins continued their fire sale moving Hanley Ramirez, Randy Choate, Gaby Sanchez, and Edward Mujica.  Nathan Eovaldi and Scott McGough were acquired from LA. Eovaldi is an extremely hard thrower who lacks a good secondary pitch and thus strikeouts despite being a flame thrower. McGough was a 2011 firth round draft pick who has struck out more than a batter per inning in A+ ball. Despite a quality fastball/slider combo he has not dominated A+ ball quite as much as one would like. Still, he should get a shot to pitch in middle relief in the long run.

Sanchez went from consistent regular to completely falling apart. He showed some signs of life in the minors and could potentially unseat Jones at first base, but will most likely serve as a reserve for the remainder of 2012. Gorkys Hernandez has excellent speed, but has little power and profiles best as a fourth outfielder.

Finally, the Marlins dealt reliever Mujica to the Cardinals for Zack Cox.Cox was considered one of the best college hitters in the 2011 amateur draft and this deal spells out quite clearly how well he fit in the Cardinals organization defensively and how his bat has failed to develop. Cox is more of a contact-making, line drive hitter than a power hitter and if he can somehow improve his defense at second, his bat might fit there. Right now, his chances of being a starter in Miami long-term are in considerable doubt.

We are a less than a week from the non-waiver trade deadline and there have been a few deals worty of note. While it’s fairly easy to get a read on the implications of the MLB players involved, what of the minor leaguers and their long-term potential?

Detroit/Florida

Detroit potentially answered their long-term #2 starter and second basemen needs, while the Marlins acquired Jacob Turner , Brian Flynn and Rob Brantly. Turner was the Tiger’s best young pitcher in their system at the start of the season and was considered for the opening day rotation. This season, however, has been marred by a few red flags including shoulder troubles and significant decline in strikeout rates at the minor league level and an overall decline in command of his pitches, despite throwing strikes, at both the minor league and MLB level. While Turner still has upper end of the rotation potential, it has me wondering if this will be the Andrew Miller deal for the Marlins all over again.

Flynn, a 2011 7^th round pick is a tall hard-throwing lefty who has stared at three levels for the Tigers and only just recently made his Double-A debut. The 6’8” pitcher exceeded expectations in terms of his ability to throw strikes and has made progress developing his pitches beyond his fastball to the point where he could be a successful middle reliever. The question, like with many young pitchers, is the quality of his off-speed stuff. For now, Flynn has certainly done well enough to stay a starter, though the nit-picker in me would have liked to have seen higher strikeout rates in the lower minors and questions his ability to translate his 7+ K/9 to even Double-A.

Brantly gets decent reviews for his catch and throw skills. At the plate, the lefty makes rather consistent, line-drive contact and gap power. Like most catchers, he is far from fast, so it is unlikely that his .311 batting average at Double-A will translate even if he does make contact more than 90% of the time. I think Brantly has starter potential, but more of “average regular” with the ability to hit .270 to .280 and 8 to 15 HRs per season.

New York/Seattle

With Brett Gardner likely done for the season, the Yankees sent over D.J. Mitchell and RHP Danny Farquhar for Ichiro Suzuki. Mitchell, 25, is a bit long in the tooth for a prospect. The righty has spent time at Triple-A each of the last three seasons and finally made his MLB debut earlier this season.  The former 10^th round pick is a four-pitch pitcher who works in the upper eighties with a decent sinker, trying to generate ground balls. None of his pitches are exceptional, but he changes speeds and throws strikes consistently enough to be a potential 5^th starter or middle reliever, but it’s unlikely that he will ever have much value as a fantasy player.

Farquhar, also 25 and a former 10^th round pick, is a smallish right-handed reliever. The Mariners will be his fourth organization before he even makes his MLB debut which means he is well regarded enough to keep getting traded. He’s a fastball/slider guy who hides and varies his arm angle well. Farquhar profiles best in middle relief.

White Sox/Houston
The White Sox acquired Brett Myers for additional bullpen depth and dealt pitchers Matt Heidenreich and Blair Walters to the Astros. Heidenreich was a fourth round pick out of high school in 2009. The big righty has not worked out quite as well as envisioned. The righty tops out in the low nineties and is a pitch to contact pitcher with very good control, but with mediocre secondary stuff that has had him produce sub 6.0 K/9 at the A+ level and lower levels. I’m doubtful he makes it to the majors as a starter. Perhaps he might do well with a conversion to relief.

Walters, a lefty, is more likely to have a MLB career. A 2011 11^th round pick, Walters was a college reliever who has been used as a starter in the White Sox’s system and has been meeting with some heavy resistance since being promoted to A+ ball, albeit with excellent peripheral skills (8+ K/9 and sub 2.0 BB/9). His low to mid-nineties heavy sinker earns praise and should help to earn at least a left-handed specialists gig in the long run.

Toronto/Houston
In exchange for J.A. Happ, Brandon Lyon, and David Carpenter the Astros took on the salary of Francisco Cordero to acquire Joe Musgrove, Asher Wojciechowski,  David Rollins, and Carlos Perez. Musgrove, 19, has upside with a heavy sinker that hits the upper nineties and the makings of a good slider and is already showing aptitude for throwing strikes. The next step is the development of a changeup. Perez, a catcher, is a 21-year old with solid defensive skills, gap power, and well above average plate discipline. Like Brantly above, he is not a fast runner and it could hurt his ability to hit for despite solid contact making skills. Perez is probably 1.5 to 2 years away and is a potential starter. Wojciechowski, 23, has a good pedigree as a former supplemental first round pick, but got knocked around last year and is repeating A+ ball.  The 230 pounder throws plenty hard and has a plus slider that he can throw for strikes. Over 18 starts Wojciechowski posted a 7.3 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 and is due for promotion given his success and age. At the very least he’ll make it in middle relief if he can’t as a starter.  Rollins, 22, is a former 24^th round pick who was working in low A-ball as a starter at the time of the trade. He profiles as an organizational type who would do well to convert to a lefty specialist role.

Next week, more trade deadline prospect acquisition analysis!

This week we take a look at prospects who are dominating the minors to get a better idea of their prospect legitimacy.

Billy Hamilton has been giving us flashbacks like it’s the 1980s with back to back 100+ stolen base seasons. It is quite amazing to note that he’s already surpassed 2011’s total in 200+ fewer plate appearances with 104. The question, of course is, how will Hamilton translate to the Majors as an actual player? Well first off, he is a non-power threat, speed merchant and a right-handed hitter to boot. On the positive side he has become more selective, walking 13% of the time and has improved his contact, but not to a level that screams “special” with an 18% strikeout rate. In other words his .404 BABIP is a bit telling and over his head. The young shortstop, who will probably need to be converted to 2B or the OF in the long run, is in line for a promotion to Double-A and if things go as planned, could get some cups of coffee and perhaps a more promising role with the Reds in 2012. At the very least, Hamilton could be a valuable fantasy player possibly in the mold of Rajai Davis given similar plate discipline skills and power potential. If he can make more consistent, solid contact and continue to translate those selectivity skills upwards through the minors, we may have something. For now, I remain skeptical and do not quite see him as an everyday player without further improvement.

19-year old Dylan Bundy is already dominating the competition at A+ ball, striking out more than a batter per inning while throwing strikes. Bundy’s skill set and talents are for real and the Orioles seriously have him on a fast track that could even get him an (ill-advised from an arbitration clock standpoint) cup of coffee. However, it is more likely that he will finish the year at A+ ball, and move up to Double-A with a chance at Triple-A in 2013 and perhaps be in their rotation full time at the age of 21 in 2014. Bundy’s stuff is just impressive across the board and deep with high octane velocity, the ability to spin the ball, handle lefties, and change speeds like a pitcher several years older than himself. Health permitting, Bundy is a future ace in the making.

While the Detroit Tigers continue to love Miguel Cabrera’s bat they know his long term position cannot be third base. They are counting on Nick Castellanos to be that man. The 20-year old is on the fast track and has played at both Single-A+ and Double-A ball this year along with appearance with this weeks’ Futures Game. His defensive skills should allow him to play 3B at the MLB level. In Single-A he dominated, batting .405 (.486 BABIP) while making contact 83% of the time while showing improving patience and gap power along with 3 homeruns. In Double-A Castllanos has been having a good deal more trouble and looks to be pressing with a 20%+ strikeout rate while walkin less than 2% of the time over a small 119 plate appearance sample size. The righty is very young for his league and his struggles over a small sample should not be read too much into. However, Castellanos is very much an unfinished product who is a bit over aggressive for a hitter with possibly sub 20-HR power potential. I think he will get a chance to start, but I see him as a more regular everyday player than as a potential star.

It feels like forever, but Mets prospect Wilmer Flores was promoted to Double-A a little while back and has translated his contact-making skills (91% of the time) to the new level.  More impressively, the 20-year old hit for power in the fairly notoriously pitcher friendly Florida State League with 10 HRs. Since moving to Double-A he has followed up 3 more long balls while producing a .390 .433 .576 line over an incredibly small sample. Like Castellanos, Flores is very young and given his size and frame has long been expected to move to third base. The good signs here have been the upwards trending power over last season and this season while maintaining good contact making skills. That said, Flores is too aggressive of a hitter to be much an OBP threat (.330s at best?), but there is .280 20+ HR potential here to be found. Again, not a stud or star unless he somehow finds a way to stay at short, but more likely an average regular.

The Rangers Justin Grimm leads the Texas League in ERA. He recently received a 3-start trial in the Rangers rotation, but showed he was not quite ready for the 2-level jump and was sent back to Double-A at the All Star break. In Double-A the righty has a 1.87 ERA with 9.0 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. The righty is a three pitch pitcher who throws relatively hard and can touch the mid-nineties and has a good slider, but gets mixed reports on his changeup. For now Grimm needs more time at Double-A and deserves a promotion to Triple-A. At the moment I see him more as a reliever than as a starter despite his dominance this season.

2010 first round pick Zack Cox really is not working out the way the Cardinals had hoped. His .252 .298 .405 line includes a fairly hot June. The power expectations are not there and with the exception of 75 plate appearances during an Arizona Fall League campaign, the right has been an aggressive hitter whose contact rates have declined as he has progressed up the minor league ladder. Still, Cox is only 23 years of age and may yet turn things around, but right now the lefty is not looking like he has the bat desired for the hot corner and if he could show some competency at second base, might profile better than from an offensive standpoint.

Jedd Gyorko, on the other hand, has been seeing his stock rise. Also a 2010 draft pick, Gyorko has advanced from Double-A to Triple-A already, showing a good combination of power, contact-making, and plate discipline. I had been previously skeptical regarding his power potential and will be interested to see how it ultimately translates to PETCO. While Gyorko’s .349/.396/.597 line in Triple-A is over his head and certainly impacted by park and PCL league conditions, his right-handed bat would be a welcome addition to the Padres’ lineup. Chase Headley is arbitration eligible again after this season and could easily end up costing the Friar’s over $4M, so a positional change for one of this duo may have to occur.

When Scott Sizemore went down in spring training, the A’s had to scramble for a third baseman. The Josh Donaldson experiment was a failure while adding veterans like Brandon Inge and Brandon Hicks have been band-aide maneuvers at best. Steve Parker looked like a viable candidate to possibly enter the fray this spring too. Recently the lefty has been seeing some time at the hot corner and may yet receive a trial at the MLB level, but while  Parker’s been steady, his bat really has not come to life producing a pedestrian  .270/.349/.417 line for Sacramento. The OBP skills are there, but it is hard to imagine him as more than mid-teens per season homerun candidate. I think Parker may be more worthwhile to hold onto in redraft leagues than keeper leagues simply because he is a low-ceiling player who could provide a boost in deep formats still this year, but for keeper leaguers, there are more attractive long-term options to fill their limited minor league rosters.

Many wished Nolan Arenado won the starting third base job for the Rockies this spring. Instead the 21-year old appears properly placed in Double-A where the righty is sporting a .293/.348/.424 line along with an 88% contact- rate. These are very respectable numbers when you consider the fact that Arenado is young for his league and is holding his own well. On the other hand, Arenado is far from dominating the level and is not hitting for as much power as anticipated. Given these factors, it is hard to expect Arenado to be an impact factor in 2012. He may get a promotion to Triple-A and perhaps even a September call-up, but it would unsurprising if he was on a one-level-at-a-time program now with a more likely mid-2013 recall date. There is still plenty of potential in this skill and toolset for Arenado to be a 20+ .300+ threat in his prime.

I had high hopes for the Mariner’s Vinnie Catricala given his dominating performances at A+ and Double-A ball in 2011 where he showed a solid combination of power and plate discipline. 2012 has been a struggle for the 23-year old. The former 10^th round pick in stead is hitting under .200 against lefties and is being out of context, overly aggressive at the plate. Catricala continues to make a fair amount of contact, but is not driving the ball like he did in 2011. While the righty has been showing some signs of life lately with a few multi-hit games under his belt, it is starting to get a bit cloudy as to where he fits into the M’s long-term plans, especially given his defensive shortcomings.

The Angels have not received much offense from third base this season except when they ill-advisedly deploy a very much out of position Mark Trumbo there. Meanwhile, in Triple-A, Luis Jimenez is having a rather similar season to his Double-A campaign, hitting for average and making very consistent contact while showing mid to high teens homerun per season potential. However, he continues to be a rather aggressive hitter, walking less than 5% of the time and despite hitting .296, is actually getting on base at just a .323 clip. Should the Angels decide to give Jimenez a shot, the righty’s skills should translate rather easily to the Majors, but I suspect in the long run his aggressiveness will be exploited and could reduce him to a bench or organizational role long-term given a relatively modest offensive ceiling.

Moving to the Marlins, it appears to be unfortunately time to cross Matt Dominguez off the prospect lists. Dominguez remains an elite defender, but has yet to show an ability to hit for average, to get on-base, or much in any form of power over his minor league career. The righty has actually made contact 90% of the time, but has been held to a .231 batting average. This may be in part due to a .236 BABIP leaving open the possibility for improvement, but his overall ceiling as a low to mid-teens homerun hitter who may be overmatched at the MLB level leaves little reason to keep him on your minor league squad if better options present themselves.