Mastersball

It is no great secret that Wil Myers has been on fire. The Royals’ outfielder may soon force the MLB club’s hand. The 21-year-old started the season in Double-A, hitting .351 while masing 13 homers in just 152 plate appearaces. I was somewhat skeptical given a rather dauntingly high, though out of career context, strikeout rate and .425 batting average on balls in play. Well, the Royals could not keep him in Double-A and he has rewarded them with a return to norm in the contact department at a sub 20% strikeout rate, but has also maintained good plate discipline and power, where in just another 132 plate appearances, he crushed 11 more homers for 24 overall. Myers may never be noted for his defensive attributes, but the righty looks like a legit masher and potential .300 30+ HR threat at the MLB level. Jeff Francouer owners need to be on notice as he is a rather high probability target to be dealt around the trade deadline to make way for Myers.

In Toronto, Travis D’Arnaud got off to a slow, but solid start, but it was rather unimpressive considering he was playing in the hitter’s haven of Las Vegas. In recent weeks, he has been nothing but hot, adjusting to the Triple-A game and now up to a .335 overall batting average. He's well on pace to set a single-season personal high in homers with 15 in just 275 plate appearances after posting 21 in 466 last year. D’Arnaud has shown he can be a fairly solid contact hitter at multiple levels of play, but unlike Myers, he is a more aggressive hitter and being a catcher, I remain skeptical of his ability to be a .300 hitter in the big leagues, regardless of what he has done the last two years in the minors. The righty is going to have to prove that the contact he makes is consistently hard contact to hit for average because a catcher’s legs are not going to give him many infield hits to boost it. That said, these are still at least a .270s hitter's skills, if not better, and J.P. Arencibia continues to show power, but is on pace to repeat a consecutive sub .220 batting average and well sub .300 OBP. This is not sustainable for a major league starter, so a second half call-up of D’Arnaud looks quite likely.

Over in Toledo, Jacob Turner owners may be thinking their man may be getting close to the show with his 3.43 ERA, especially given the recent, albeit short-term, injury to Drew Smyly. In fact, Turner will be making a spot start later this week in Smyly’s place. Well, I would urge caution here. Though he showed some signs of life in his most recent start with six strikeouts in six innings with only two walks, Turner has had a very up and down season to the point that his K/9 is below 6.0 and his normally characteristic above average command and control have not been there for him. Instead, he has walked batters at a rate of over 4.0 per nine innings. The issues, especially earlier this season, can be linked to shoulder problems (“dead arm”) and only in recent weeks has he been showing signs of regaining his full velocity. So Turner has some red flags here with respect to his health. It is also tough to recommend him as a spot starter for now as we are indeed discussing a 21-year-old with just 10 total starts above the Double-A level.

Over in the National League, Anthony Rizzo is doing in the Minors what caused the Padres to promote him early last year. Of course, he fizzled upon his promotion, but it is hard to ignore someone who has hit 23 homers and has a .364/.426/.745 line (yes, .745!). Yes, he is playing above his head, but his trial with the Padres now looks fluky in the context of his professional career (30% strikeout rate) compared to a low-twenties or high-teens rate that he normally produces. Bryan LaHair, of course, has established himself as a legitimate slugger, so the Cubs will have an interesting conundrum to unravel in the next few weeks considering neither player really should step anywhere near the outfield or any other defensive position for that matter.

Short-Season Leagues
In other news, the NY-Penn League and other short-season baseball leagues opened this week. The rapid signing of draft picks has already well stocked these rosters. If you live near one of these short-season clubs, I highly recommend checking them out. I hope to be checking out some Hudson Valley Renegade Action myself! This and other teams in these rookie leagues could be some of the most intriguing minor league baseball to see. And keep in mind that because of the quick signing process, we could see some expedited promotions through organizations, or even cuts, as some picks will fizzle.

Getting back to players with at least some amount of professional track record, Drew Smyly has exhausted his rookie status after 12 starts and 63 2/3 innings of work. The birthday boy has had impressive results, producing an 8.2 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 and has translated his minor league skills to the Majors quite well. The now 23-year-old does have a chink in  his armor, however, as he is a fly-ball pitcher who has allowed home runs at a rate of 1.4 per nine innings pitched or on 13% of fly balls allowed. Owners, however, need not be too alarmed as his overall skills suggest that his ERA hovering around 4.00 is right about where it should be and in time may see improvement given a slightly elevated HR/FB rate. Looking deeper to the splits department, Smyly has been death on lefties, walking just three in 20.1 innings and striking out 25 and while his work against righties has not been as menacingly dominant, the young lefty has produced very respectable results with a 6+ K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. Interestingly, Smyly has allowed four of his ten home runs against lefties, so given experience and his general success against them, it should assure further improvement long-term. As with all rookie pitchers, however, the enemy is total innings, pitch counts, and “second time around the league.” While Smyly looks like a solid addition to Detroit in the long term, ups and downs for the rest of 2012 need to be expected.

Over in Boston, Will Middlebrooks’ production has pushed Kevin Youkilis to the rumor mill/trade block. Hitting .302/.341/.517 can do that, especially while Youkilis has spent much of the year out of the lineup and batting only a bit above the Mendoza line. Yes, Youkilis is a free agent at the end of the season and Middlebrooks is a low-cost option with upside, but I still remain skeptical that the young righty is truly the long-term solution for the Bosox. Keep in mind that Middlebrooks has had to hit .302 to post that .341 OBP and Youkilis, while he is hitting just .225, has a .305 OBP. This is the same skepticism I expressed in the pre-season regarding Middlebrooks. The kid has good raw power, can play third base well enough to stick, but is just a darn aggressive hitter (did I mention he was right-handed yet?) who strikes out over 20% of the time and thus far more than a quarter of the time over his short MLB sample. Boston fans and Middlebrooks owners are going to have to get used to extreme highs and lows given this skill set and overall should probably be expecting a sub .280 or worse hitter, not a .300 hitter in the long run.

Giving the National League some love, Yonder Alonso has been something of a disappointment in his first full season of MLB ball. From a plate discipline skills perspective at least, there is a lot to like as the former Red has shown both selectivity and contact-making ability. What is not apparent is any sign of punch with a sub .100 ISO. This is not what you want to see from your starting first baseman. So far we have seen a low 30% fly-ball rate and a 40%+ ground ball rate. The only thing salvaging his season thus far has been his ability to hit line drives. It is far too early to write Alonso off, especially given such solid fundamentals, but he is going to have to turn it around soon to keep his job.

On the mound, Wade Miley has been surprisingly dominant for the Diamondbacks with his 2.53 ERA. I’ve had a soft spot for the lefty for several years now given the depth of his repertoire and very good command, but this is not a pitcher with a great arsenal of swing and miss pitches. Instead, he has honed his game as a fairly dominant ground-ball pitcher (49%), combined it with a 2.1 BB/9, and mid 5’s K/9. A .257 batting average on balls in play and pitching in a ballpark more conducive to hitting, however, suggests Miley is pitching over his head. The long-term scouting report on Miley remains as more of a back-end of the rotation type/innings eater. Enjoy the success for now, but do not be surprised if his ERA and WHIP climb more than a point upwards as the season progresses.

In Seattle, Jesus Montero is pretty much performing exactly as expected. The 22-year-old is showing a fair amount of power, but like Middlebrooks, we are talking about a fairly aggressive swinging righty with so-so contact and OBP skills. The end result of a .250 batting average and .298 OBP therefore is not surprising. Now, Montero has shown greater selectivity than Middlebrooks at the minor league level, so I expect some more adjustments, but I would not expect a future .300 hitter at the moment, especially when you include how dreadfully slow a runner Montero has proven to be. A speed score of 1.6 is pretty abysmal and the fact that it was similar at the minor league level shows it not to be a fluke. Expect more of the same for the rest of the season and perhaps the next few seasons before Montero can become more of an impact bat as he both physically matures and learns the MLB game.

This week, my thoughts on the in-progress amateur drafts results of several organizations.

The Mariners

Mike Zunino was expected to go in the first five picks. The Mariners have an interesting history with first round catching picks. Most recently they selected Jeff Clement with this very pick in 2005 and also Ryan Christianson with the 11^th overall pick in 1999. Some guy named Jason Varitek 14^th overall in 1994, and Terry Bell 17^th overall in 1983. Zunino is in theory a more well rounded player than either Clement or Christianson, but has neither player’s “potential” with the bat and Zunino does not strike me as an impact player, but more of a solid citizen type. After the rather safe Zunino, Seattle followed with some raw tools selections in Joe DeCarlo (a future 3B), Edwin Diaz, a projectable righty who throws serious heat already, and Tyler Pike, a left-handed high school pitcher who already has some depth to his repertoire. A lot of risk in these three before you get to Rutgers’ Patrick Kivlehan, a solid hitter with 20+ HR Potential and Taylor Ard, a DH type, with even more raw power potential. Both have some OBP skills as well. Shortstop Chris Taylor looks like a utility guy with a good glove, Grady Wood a fifth starter type who could start at A+ ball and move quickly up the ladder, and Mike Faulker has to be tracked because of his tremendous speed, but may be overpowered by even minor league pitching.

The Mets

Of course I have to include my hometown New York Mets. The Mets draft thus far lacks the potential upside of last year’s effort, but does feature quite a few players who should see time in the Majors. Gavin Cecchini was no surprise as his name came up for the Mets in multiple mocks. Cecchini is a good defender with moderate hitting/speed tools. He looks like a potential starter, but not a star and my initial sense says far better in real baseball than fantasy. The Mets then explored a low-ceiling, fairly quick ascent path with several college picks including Kevin Plawecki, a contact hitting catcher who is constantly compared to A.J. Pierzynksi. Interestingly the Mets rated him higher than 3^rd overall pick Zunino. Matt Reynolds has a chance to be Daniel Murphy type with better defensive skills. Matt Koch and Brandon Welch have setup men potential. Then they went with several projectable starters in Teddy Stankiewicz (middle of the rotation potential), Corey Oswalt, and Chris Flexen. High school catcher Tomas Nido has interesting power potential.  The Jayce Boyd selection is a puzzle as a non-power hitting right-handed first basemen - the 6^th round feels like an overdraft.

The Twins

One cannot fault the Twins for going upside with Byron Buxton who has minimum 20-20 potential. Pitch recognition and plate discipline are what it will determine if Buxton realizes that or falls into prospect purgatory.  The Twins then continued with a talent/high ceiling approach selecting J.O. Berrios who is armed with multiple plus pitch potential and projectability. After that they settled in for six straight college picks, five pitchers, though none project best as starters. But all are rather hard throwers and should be on a quick path to the majors. The group includes Daniel Bard’s kid brother Luke Bard, Mason Melotakis, J.T. Chargois, and Zach Jones. Melotakis is the lone lefty of the group. It almost has a “throwing darts” feel to it where the Twins may end up with one or two keys to the bullpen. Adam Brett Walker, the hitter of the group, could be the Twins long-term first basemen with his above average power. I am, however, very concerned with his high strikeout rates at even the college level.

The Pirates

Some thought Mark Appel was destined to be #1 overall, but he slipped to #8 and the Pirates jumped at the opportunity to add to their crop of power arms that includes last year’s #1 overall pick Gerrit Cole, making this two straight years they snagged the top pitcher on their board. The Pirates also took another pre-draft favorite of mine in Barrett Barnes, a disciplined hitter with excellent speed and gap power. The knock on him is that he has a centerfielder’s bat, but profiles better in a corner outfield spot. The Bucs then selected arguably the best all around catcher in the draft, Wyatt Mathisen, who has some defensive tools and a bat with power projection. Interestingly the Pirates took a second player like Barnes in Brandon Thomas, another college speedster profiling better as a left fielder. He looks more like a back-up or organizational type, however. The Pirates made some bids on projectable pitchers in the later rounds with Dalton Friend and Walker Buehler, both of whom could be first five round picks after college. It will be interesting to see if they can sign them.

The Royals

The Royals may have selected the best rounded starting pitching choice in Kyle Zimmer with the fifth pick overall. His combination of stuff, depth of repertoire, mechanics, and command make him a potential fast mover.  Sticking with college pitchers, the Royals next selected Sam Selman. Teams seem to love his potential as a power lefty, but he has quite a few question marks in stark contrast to Zimmer. Kenny Diekroeger is another bit of a head-scratcher as true second basemen who grades out average at best in the power/speed department and strikes me as a utility or average/unspectacular starter at best.

Last week I covered some interesting names that are sure to be selected in the first round of the draft and will be amongst the more targeted in your minor league/dynasty leagues next year. This week, let’s take a bit deeper look beyond the early picks to find some additional targets.

Relief Help

The crop of college talent can usually be relied upon several strong armed pitchers with setup or possible closer potential. It helps, that given their college experience and concentrating on 2 to 3 pitches tops in the minors tends to help them cruise through the minors, to the Majors, if they are effective.

Matt Koch is a right-handed reliever out of Louisville with a multiple plus-potential pitch arsenal including the requisite heat. Like with many hard throwers, command is the key for Koch. I would not be surprised to see him handled somewhat like Chris Sale, moved between relief and starting, since he does have enough pitches to potentially be a starter.

Nolan Sanburn throws harder than Koch and has a rather nasty curve to boot. While his pure stuff may rate a bit higher than Koch’s, he is still working on a pitch to combat lefties and like Koch, also has issues with commanding his pitches.

Another potential late inning reliever available in the 2012 draft is Jake Barrett. He’s a big righty with power stuff and three quality pitches. He will likely fall in the draft due to injury and/or potential future injury concerns, but should still go in the first rounds on the basis of his stuff alone.

Dan Langfield may not be as tall as some power closers at just 6’0” and is probably more effective when he doesn’t try to throw too hard where he can rely on more movement. Langfield has some weapons including a cutter against lefties and has made some strides this year as far as throwing strikes, but needs to prove this is a for real change at the professional level and especially over a larger sample of innings.

Hitters of Note

Moving away from pitching we are brought to the backstop and Kevin Plawecki.  There are other catchers more highly rated in the draft, but Plawecki may move through the minors more speedily than most.  The righty first and foremost is noted for his contact making abilities and drawing walks more often than he strikes out. The Boilermaker also has gap power and could be capable of high single digits to low-teens power output in the long run. His defense is such that it is solid enough to certainly stay behind the plate too. So overall he is not a high ceiling player, but rather one who should hit his ceiling quickly and be quite fantasy relevant.

Stephen Piscotty is another contact-hitting type, with not too high a ceiling, but who like Plawecki might be able to reach his ceiling in the Majors quickly. His frame is more built for power than Plawecki’s, but his bat, while quick, has a swing designed more for line drives than homeruns. The soon to be Stanford alum could hit for average in the Majors and is a reasonable fantasy target as long as he can stay at third base. If Piscotty has to move off third to first or a corner outfield spot, his bat will not play as well and could cost his career.

At shortstop, Nolan Fontana has all the skills and tools to be a regular major leaguer. He has the glove to stay at shortstop, makes contact, has some gap power, and well above average plate discipline that will allow him to get on base and perhaps hit for average as well. I see a .280 5 to 10 HR, 10 to 20 steal per season capability of output from him.

Outfield Items

The 2012 draft does consist of a few college outfielders that could move through their respective systems at a fair rate. Travis Jankowski has true centerfielder skills including the glove and plus speed to handle the position. The lefty out of Suny Stonybrook  has little power to speak of, but at least makes contact. This of course, however, is not enough, as many a low-powered speedster has not been able to make the kind of quality contact it takes to be a Major Leaguer, so Jankowski will have to pass that test.

Barrett Barnes is more of a left fielder in the long run, but has a better rounded set of tools and skills than Jankowksi. The Red Raider is a right-handed hitter, but has good bat speed and at least average power potential. Barnes is also blessed with plus speed and may have a shot at 20-20 in the long run. I remain a  bit skeptical at this time regarding his ability to hit for average in the long run given a power-conscious approach and his right-handedness.

The Caly Poly slugger Mitch Hanigan has 20+ HR potential. Normally I would be skeptical of a right-handed power hitter’s ability to make it in the Majors, but Hanigan has made strides in the plate discipline department, walking as much, if not more than he has struck out. Time will tell whether he can translate this skill development to the pros.

James Ramsey will probably be a quick signing as a senior for the Florida Seminoles. He gets excellent reviews for his makeup and is a disciplined hitter w ho makes good contact. The lefty, however, only has teens per season homerun potential. His best tool may be his speed where he has 20+ potential. As an outfielder, Ramsey is something of a tweener as he is more of a fringy centerfielder and does not have the bat for a corner spot. Its possible he may be tried in the infield by some organization where his bat would better fit.

Next week we will take a look to see how the draftees look to fit into their new organizations long-term plans.

We are under two weeks away from this year’s Rule-4 draft and I already have a my eye on more than a few players for my keeper and dynasty leagues.

Mike Zunnio, a catcher out of the University of Florida, has a solid all-around game that will allow him to stay behind the plate and be a productive offensive force. I don’t think he has the ceiling to be a star. Despite plenty of bat speed, opinions are divided long term whether Zunnio will be a teens per season home run hitter or more a 20-plus guy. For now, as a right handed hitter, I just want to be sure he translates his contact making skills to professional ball before rendering a full opinion, but he does look like an everyday starter.

Michael Wacha out of Texas A&M is probably considered the “safest” of picks as far as starting pitchers goes. That is a fairly loaded term given the amount of innings college hurlers rack up, but we are talking about a polished right hander with above average command and a good fastball/changeup combo. So that is a very nice foundation. There are some questions out there regarding Wacha’s ability to spin the ball (curve and change), so I also wonder if this is a potential Mike Pelfrey situation. Though to be fair, Pelfrey was drafted with the idea that he could spin the ball and it simply wasn’t ever true.

Mark Appel is the higher end pick with a power fastball/slider combo and workable change. This Stanford righty could easily be a top five pick. However, he is riskier than Wacha as his command has been questioned and his 4-seamer has been called “too straight” by multiple sources while his two-seamer receives better reviews. It will be interesting to see how quickly Appel will make it to the Majors, but it is fairly clear that he has some work to do.

Kyle Zimmer may be the best overall package as far as college pitchers go heading into the amateur draft. He combines Wacha’s strike-throwing ability with stuff that more closely approaches Appel’s level and the overall combination could make him a potential #2 or better MLB starter.

Byron Buxton is probably the highest ceiling player in this year’s draft. The right-handed hitting outfielder is already blessed with abundant speed and has a 6’2” frame that he can grow into and gain power, and already excellent bat speed. Essentially Buxton is in the same situation as Bubba Starling - tons of talent, but how will that talent translate to professional ball and especially as a right-hander hitter, will he have the plate discipline to truly harness that talent? Time will tell. High risk, high reward can be found here, but it will far from surprising to see him go first overall.

Marcus Stroman is an interesting potential first round selection. He pitches for Duke and stands well under the ideal height for a pitcher at a generous 5’9”. That aside, the righty has all the qualities you look for in a first round college pitcher. Plus command and a deep repertoire with multiple pitch potential that includes weapons to combat lefties and righties alike. The question will be how deceptive he is and how well/how quickly pro hitters see and recognize his pitches given his stature. Right now I am optimistic and think he can make it as least a back end of the rotation pitcher. I also believe he could be one of the faster movers through the minors.

We need to talk about a middle infielder and Deven Marrero is worth talking about. Despite possible work ethic issues, Herrera is a true shortstop and will stay at the position long term. He strikes me as something of a Mark Grudzielanek type perhaps with the ability to hit for average, perhaps get double digits in steals and homeruns, but also is an aggressive hitter who will not impress in the OBP department.

Finally, moving over to the hot corner, fantasy players should watch the progress of Richie Shaffer. While his long term position is up in that air, most likely 1B, we are talking about a player who already has plus power and is a legitimate 20+, if not closer to 30 homerun per season threat. Why I like Shaffer, however, is his advanced plate discipline. The righty regularly draws more walks than strikeouts. If he can translate that ability to pro ball along with his power, he could be a legitimate .280+ 25+ threat. The fact that he is slow afoot, however, reduces the likelihood that he is a consistent .300-hitting threat.

I’ll have more to report on the amateur draft as we approach and review it in the coming weeks.

Adam Lind has been a source of frustration to his fantasy owners this season and the Blue Jays, after 132 plate appearances, utilized the fact that he has options remaining to send him to Triple-A to get his swing back. Lind after a fantastic 2009 breakout campaign became a bit more power happy and saw his strikeout rates shoot up and for the past two season has transformed into a low-average, more moderate slugger, and middle of the road fantasy option than the star the lefty looked like he’d become. There is still hope here though as Lind has actually shown more patience and actually made more contact this season, but it has not been quality contact as a well-out-of-career-context .209 batting average on balls in play would suggest. Vastly increased ground-ball rates and reduce fly-ball rates are key factors behind his struggles too. Lind, 28, can rebound and Las Vegas is a good environment to do it in. Resist low-ball efforts to acquire him in AL formats if possible given your roster rules.

To replace Lind on the roster the Jays they have selected the contract of Yan Gomes from Las Vegas where the righty was batting .359/.391/.565. Please note that the Las Vegas hitter’s haven rules apply to Gomes as well as Lind and should be doubly noted when you consider that this 24-year old is not considered to be much of a prospect. A catcher for most of his minor league career with the Blue Jays, Gomes was shifted to 1B/3B this season. His M.O.? Overly aggressive right-handed hitter with gap power and little speed as you’d expect of a former backstop. A .420 BABIP in the minors is telling too. Pass. The move means Edwin Encarnacion will see regular time at 1B while Gomes and a cast of others will attempt to fill the DH slot for the time being. Recalling a 1B like David Cooper, who actually has a legitimate, though under-powered for a 1B (think Dave Magadan), MLB ready bat would have been a better option for the Jays and fantasy players alike.

The Cubs meanwhile with their bullpen woes are bringing up Blake Parker. The journeyman, however, is not the panacea they need. The 26-year old has spent parts of each of the last five seasons bouncing between Double-A and Triple-A. The former 16^th round pick is a sinker-ball guy with an ok slider/changeup combo who has a history of inconsistent command and control of his pitches and sizeable fluctuations in his strikeout rates. At times in the righty’s career he has managed to strikeout well more than a batter per inning and does have 5 saves thus far this season. I would not expect much, but you never know.

Back in the goings department, Chris Parmelee lost his spot on the Twins’ roster, but I would not lose faith in his abilities just yet. The real Parmelee did not show up this season. Last year the lefty fully translated his excellent plate discipline skills to the Majors, drawing walks, making contact, and hitting for average (even though .355 was well over his head).  A tune up at Triple-A could easily turn things around for the former 1^st-rounder and have him back in the majors in a jiff. The Twins are certainly looking for offense, so Parmelee looks as if he is capable of providing it once again.

In less optimistic news, veteran Orlando Hudson was released by the Padres on Thursday. The 34-year old has been scuffling this season and not at all showing his normally steady plate discipline skill sets – walking less and striking out more while providing little punch, and diminishing defensive capabilities. He may catch on elsewhere for one last hurrah, but Hudson is looking rather post-prime at the moment. In his place, Alexi Amarista will be the main beneficiary. The small Venezuelan was recently acquired in the Ernesto Frieri trade with the Angels and does not strike me as a long-term starter. The lefty is an extremely aggressive hitter, rarely drawing walks, has mild power, and slightly above average speed and perhaps 20+ steal potential, but I doubt he will hit enough or get on base enough to utilize it to great extent.

The rate of attrition of closers has always been rather high, but 2012, as has been well noted already, has been like nothing we’ve ever seen before. No closer is safe from injury or removal from his role. It has gotten to the point where teams and fantasy owners alike are digging through the depths of their farm system looking for bullpen help and have already placed some prominent rookies into significant roles.

At the MLB level, AL leaguers in particular are starting to really take notice of rookies Ryan Cook and Tom Wilhelmsen. Cook, currently a setup man for the A’s, has produced an 8.6 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9. The righty is a groundball pitcher with a mid-nineties fastball and hard slider, though, I'm not sure his changeup or control his good enough to make him more than a right-hand specialist reliever. Wilhelmsen is a journeyman rookie. The 28-year old has struck out more than a batter per inning, has a fairly good history for throwing strikes despite a 4+ BB/9 over a small sample this year, and works with a mid-nineties fastball and curve. The righty is a fly-ball pitcher, but he pitches in a good environment for it.

AL only leaguers should also be paying close attention to Indians’ rookie Nick Hagadone. As early as a year ago, Hagadone looked like a lost cause, but a shift to relief appears to have saved his career. Since moving to that role, his command and control have been much improved. He relies a great deal on his low to mid-nineties fastball, throwing it around 85% of the time and that may account for the not quite translated minor league strikeout rate of 6.5. In the minors, he was regularly around or above a strikeout an inning. Still, he picked up his first MLB save earlier this week.

Kelvin Herrera made the Royals bullpen, but has not been getting the attention he necessarily deserves. The 22-year old has excellent command (1.8 BB/9), a fastball that hits the upper nineties with consistency (he can hit triple digits) and is armed with a very nice change and curveball. His 8.0 K/9 is respectable, but Aaron Crow, Greg Holland, Jonathan Broxton and even Tim Collins have been getting all of the attention. 2012 may be a year for Herrera to get his feet wet in the Majors, but his upside exceeds his fellow Royals.

Giving the senior circuit some love, the Cubs recently moved Rafael Dolis into the closer’s role. The odds of backfire, given this rookie’s skill set, is extremely high.  Yes the righty is extremely hard-thrower, but he has rarely been known for his ability to miss bats even in the minors, his career high being 7.3 at Double-A.   Dolis is a fairly extreme ground-ball pitcher at 50% of the time, but given shaky control and throwing his fastball nearly 90% of the time, one has to figure MLB batters will catch up and soon. He supposedly has a good slider in his repertoire and will need to start utilizing and commanding if he is going to succeed.

Over in Arizona, J.J. Putz has an 11+ K/9 and walked none, so his closer role is not in too much jeopardy, yet second-year rookie Bryan Shaw has acquired two saves.  The 24-year old is no strikeout machine, but strikes out over 7 per nine innings, throws strikes, and has several plus offerings that allow him to combat lefties and righties alike.

Josh Lindblom may be just biding his time in the Dodgers bullpen. The former second round pick had a nice late-season debut in 2011 and has maintained his rookie status thus far. In 17.1 innings this season he has a respectable 6.8 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9. The righty is a  former college closer, but has also been utilized as a starter and has a pitch selection to mirror it. Lindblom is not the hardest thrower, but he can touch 95, has multiple breaking pitches, and can change speeds. There’s enough here for him to get back to the 8.5 K/9 level he was at with the Dodgers in 2011 and is worth watching.

Down in the minors, there are of course other promising names as well. The Padres, for example, acquired Brad Boxberger as part of the Mat Latos with the idea that he might make the opening day roster and be a prominent part of their bullpen in 2012. So far he has yet to make the squad and while he is currently serving as a the Triple-A closer and has a K/9 of 10.5, Boxberger has been unable to throw strikes and has a walk rate of near 1 batter per inning. Again, we are seeing a rather small sample size and he could turn things around. There are not many options on  the Padres roster to close beyond Huston Street, so there is opportunity in that organization.

Colorado recently promoted Zach Putnam for a day as an extra arm in a pen for a doubleheader. The former Indian was acquired over the winter in exchange for Kevin Slowey. The righty does not profile as a closer in the long run, but far worse pitchers have been chosen in for that role in the past. He throws a solid fastball/split-fastball combination and is serving as the closer for Colorado Springs, producing an 11.9 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9.

The Marlins’ Chris Hatcher is following in the footsteps of fellow former catcher turned reliever Troy Percival. A strong-armed good defensive/no hit catcher, Hatcher was made a fulltime reliever in 2010 and hasn’t looked back. In 15 innings this year he has K’d 16 and walked 3. If Hatcher can improve the consistency of his slider/changeup, there is some late inning potential, though middle relief may be a more likely result.

This article just scratched the surface of some young potential closer candidates. I’ll be back with more as the season continues.

Time flies. We’re over a month into the season, so it’s a perfect time to get a update on the progress of some minor leaguers of note.

Over in Toronto, or I should say Double-A New Hampshire, Deck McGuire is not having much fun. The righty from Georgia Tech has posted some decent peripherals in the control department over his 5 starts, but he has not been missing enough bats considering the level of competition (6.2 K/9) and most notably has had difficulty with the long ball – 6 or 2.1 per nine innings. McGuire does have some history now as a fly-ball pitcher and while he is throwing strikes, command within the strikezone is still a bit of an issue. I still think he is fully capable of being a middle to lower end of the rotation starter, but armed with a 7.18 ERA in Double-A, he is not going to get the call anytime soon and should be downgraded a bit as far as making an impact this season.

Switching to Triple-A Las Vegas, Travis Snider is enjoying the hitter haven, batting .400 with 4 HRs as is David Cooper and his .319 batting average. However, Anthony Gose is struggling mightily with zero longballs and a 33% strikeout rate. Gose struckout over 30% of the time in Double-A too, but showed power, stole 70 bags and managed to hit .253. He should come around given the hitting environment, when you think about MLB expectations, consider B.J. Upton’s recent seasons and then consider Gose strikes out at least 5% more. Right now he’s a .220 hitter in the Majors at best. As for the perhaps the most intriguing hitter at Vegas, Travis d'Arnaud, he is neither struggling nor lighting the world on fire batting .282 with 2 homers.

Over in the National lLeague, the Houston Astros Triple-A Oklahoma roster has some hot hitters. Former Met Fernando Martinez is enjoying himself and putting on a power display with 4 homeruns, making contact 83% of the time, and batting .315. It will be interesting to see if he can keep it up and start to fulfill the potential once thought of him. Also in the outfield is J.B. Shuck who is pushing for MLB time by batting .343 with a .397 OBP. The speedster also has 3 stolen bases thus far. While the Astros have been getting production from J.D. Martinez and Jordan Schafer, Brian Bogusevic and company have not been providing much offense in right field. Keep an eye on these two characters as either of them is capable of getting a shot a starting position, though of course Martinez is a better fit for right field. Shuck fits best in LF or CF. Meanwhile, in the rotation, although Jordan Lyles had a mediocre season debut this past Sunday and was subsequently optioned to the minors (given a lack of need for a fifth starter), his 24 strikeouts and 4 walks in 26 innings at Triple-A suggest it will be tough keeping him down. The 21-year old is not overpowering, but is very advanced for his age in the pitchability department and works with a solid fastball, cutter, curve, and changeup.

Triple-A Omaha is providing some interesting stories for the Royals. Max Ramirez has seemingly refound his offense batting .333 with 5 HRs and 23 RBIs. The sub-par defensive catcher has oft-been a sleeper due to his combination of power and plate discipline, but is now 27 years old and is now rather removed from excellent 2008 campaign in hitter-friendly Frisco. Johnny Giavotella is doing what he does well, showing good plate discipline and hitting for average with a .288 3 HR performance while walking more often than he has struck out. Chris Getz and Yuniesky Betancourt have not struggled per se at the MLB level, but neither have they been tearing down the walls, so there should be an avenue for Giavotella to return and reclaim his starting job at some point this year. Mike Montgomery, on the other hand, is not doing much to garner a promotion with a 3.6 BB/9 and solid, but mediocre 6.9 K/9 and 4.55 ERA. This isn’t terrible at all considering the sample size, but again considering his “ace-level” pedigree, stuff, and more impressive previous strikeout rates including a 7.7 K/9 at Triple-A last year, more is expected from the southpaw. Right now,  Will Smith or Vin Mazzaro are more likely callus if there is  a need at the MLB level.

Moving to Northwest Double-A Arkansas we need an update on Wil Myers who is absolutely tearing apart the Texas League with a .349 batting average and 7 homers. The significant drop-off in plate discipline including a 30%+ strikeout rate, however, is a concern and makes it quite likely his .349 batting average is unsustainable given that aggressive an approach at the plate. Considering this is someone who has previously made contact more than 80% of the time, Myers is far from a lost cause at this point and is capable of turning things around in contact-making department.

One update from my previous article regarding the Mets Matt Harvey: Since struggling out of the gate, came alive at Triple-A including 7 innings of shutout, zero -walk ball on the date the article was posted.

On Tuesday, the Mets received some potentially bad news with Mike Pelfrey possibly having a UCL tear which could ultimately result in Tommy John surgery, ending his season. Given this potentiality, it is time to consider the Mets rotation replacement options.

For now, the Mets will call up Chris Schwinden up this weekend to replace Pelfrey. Until 2010 the 25-year old was considered an organizational player and had in fact been moved to the bullpen until an injury occurred and Schwinden moved to the Binghamton rotation and impressed. The righty is oft-compared to current Mets’ starter Dillon Gee as a four-pitch hurler without really a single plus pitch, but has good command of what is available. In Triple-A last year, Schiwnden produced a very solid 8.3 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 and was able to produce similar peripheral numbers over 4 starts at the MLB level too. The early goings of 2012 have not been as kind as his K/9 is under 6 and BB/9 at 3.7, but it is overall a tiny sample 22 inning sample size. The former 22^nd round pick looks like a back-end of the rotation starter and will serve as a place holder until more talented personnel arrives, but he does have enough skill to surprise and may be worth a look in NL only formats.

Speaking of more talented personnel, Matt Harvey is in Triple-A and was fairly impressive this spring, but has had some struggles recently. Over 4 starts, the former first round pick’s ERA was over 6 and his BB/9 at 5.2. On the plus side, he is still striking out a batter per inning and getting a fair amount of groundballs. Harvey struggled upon initially playing at Binghamton too, so this is not at the moment something to be concerned about long-term, especially once again considering the sample size, but on the other hand if you were hoping for Harvey to ascend to the Majors quickly and make a quick and positive impact, think again. First the power-righty will need to improve his command and adjust at Triple-A before any call-up is forthcoming.

Unfortunately for the Mets the same can be said of Jeurys Familia who has a 1.5 K/BB and 5.30 ERA thus far. Fortunately, the 22-year old has an 11.2 K/9 thus far. Both Harvey and Familia are very hard throwers, but control and consistency remain issues. Both also need to improve their changeups if they want to be MLB starters in the long run. I prefer Harvey’s chances as a starter given two already plus MLB pitches, an average curve, and change that is approaching average, but it is possible that both could simply end up late inning relievers.

With both Harvey and Famila struggling, who can the Mets turn to if Schwinden fails?  On the journeyman front are Jeremy Hefner and Garrett Olson. Left-hander Olson was once a top pitching prospect in the Oriole system. A former 2005 first round pick, Olson is now with his fourth organization. When drafted, the 28-year old was well regarded for his pitchability, command, and a fairly deep repertoire. Well something funny happened on the way to the Show. Olson has been unable translate minor league strikeout success to the Majors and more shockingly, his ability to throw strikes falls apart in the Majors. It doesn’t help that Olson is a fly-ball pitcher to boot. So far the former Cal Poly Mustang has an 8+ K/9 and a 4+ BB/9. The Mets will purchase his contract if in a bind, but could also pass over him, content to let him fill minor league innings.

Hefner was actually selected by the Mets back in 2005 in the 46^th round. He declined. In the end the Padres made him a fifth round pick in 2007. The righty has an average fastball, an average to plus change, and fringy breaking stuff. The Mets actually gave the 26-year old a one-day call-up on Monday as an extra arm, so it is possible that he is first in line after Schwinden for a rotation tryout though like Schwinden, Hefner profiles best as a fifth starter or organizational player.

On a more positive note, Zack Wheeler has dominanted at Binghamton with a 12.6 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in his first 15 innings. Despite upper end of the rotation caliber stuff, one has to figure the Mets will keep him at Binghamton for at least a half season before giving him a trial in Triple-A. A late-season call-up, however, seems like a good possibility.

Wheeler is not the only one pitching well for Binghamton and in fact, Wheeler’s 2.40 ERA is the second highest amongst their five starters. This group includes  Mark Cohoon. The left-hander had 18 starts for Triple-A Buffalo last year and was lit up to a 6.11 ERA. A second chance at that level may be forthcoming, but his control and command are not what they were in the lower minors when he was producing sub 2.0 BB/9 at multiple levels. A crafty lefty, Cohoon needs to have pinpoint command to be successful given how fringy his overall stuff actually is.

Of the rest of the group, only Darin Gorski is really considered a prospect at the moment. The 6’ 4” lefty is coming off a very successful A+ ball campaign where he posted a 9.1 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9. The 24-year old has an average fastball, but commands it very well and has a plus change and solid slider. So far so good at Binghamton with a strikeout rate still above 9.0. Gorskis' success, however, depends on his command, a 3.9 BB/9 will need improvement. Given the former 7^th round pick’s age, he could easily be on a faster track to the Majors than Wheeler and might be an option for the Mets as soon as this year. Still, like with Schwinden and Hefner, think back end of the rotation at best.

The Mets have a lot of upside near the top of their system, but right now it looks like the lower-tier guys will continue to get shots until the the top prospects show some signs of life.

The Twins’ rotation carousel has already begun. Hop on board!

Scott Baker is out for the season and Francisco Liriano is still having difficulty find the strike zone. Strike-throwing, inning eater Nick Blackburn is in the middle of the rotation rather than teetering on demotion leaving Carl Pavano as the “ace” when his skills and stuff suggest third or fourth starter. Originally, rookie Liam Hendriks made the team for a cup of coffee while the team awaited Jason Marquis. Instead, the Aussie is in for the long-haul and while the righty has perhaps the most upside of anyone in the rotation (Liriano aside), he remains a pitch to contact pitcher quite who is likely to some lumps over his rookie season. Meanwhile, Anthony Swarzak has been deployed as band-aid while the team awaits the arrival of Marquis (less healthy version of Pavano) on Wednesday.

What does this all mean? It means we are going to see a lot more changes to the Twins’ rotation as the season goes along, so it is time to take a look at the in-house options.

Marquis, as noted, is schedule to make his season debut Wednesday replacing Swarzak. The 33-year old has not pitched more than 131 innings since 2009 and when healthy is the definition of mediocre with sub 5.0 strikeout rates and average, but imprecise control (career 3.5 BB/9). In other words, it is a fair bet the right-hander gets lit up in his first extended exposure to AL hitting. So while a desperate league member will FAAB him, I am already looking onto the next warm body.

Currently on the roster we have Brian Duensing and Matt Maloney. Duensing was a member of the 2011 rotation. The lefty actually produced superior peripheral numbers to many current members of the rotation, but suffered from a .330 batting average on balls in play and a low left-on-base rate and a terrible May and August were his undoing in terms of overall ERA. The 29-year old is probably the best option to insert into the rotation, but seems to be far down on the list at the moment. Maloney, 28, is more of a quadruple-A pitcher who has shown excellent control and solid strikeout skills in the minors that make him noteworthy. The lefty, however, is a fly-ball pitcher and that combined with average to fringy stuff could spell trouble.

Moving off the MLB roster, we head to Triple-A Rochester where we find Binghamton alum Scott Diamond. Our mutual Alma mater alone might be enough to dissuade, but Diamond does have some skills. The lefty gets groundballs and has a reasonable history of throwing strikes. Ability to translate strikeout skills to the Majors is the question here. Former Cardinals farmhand P.J. Walters is another option. The 27-year old is not on the 40-man roster and was part of the Colby Rasmus deal, but was let go by Toronto as a minor league free agent. The righty is starting for Rochester, but may be best suited to a relief role where at 6’4” might be able to better harness his fastball and take advantage of his best pitch, his changeup to a greater degree. The Twins are also utilizing former Rockies’ prospect Samuel Deduno as a starter. The non-drafted free agent was used mostly as a reliever last year and is probably best suited for that role as a pitcher with a good fastball/curveball combo and inconsistent control.

Finally, it brings us to Daryl Thompson. Like Maloney, he was a long-time Reds’ farmhand and signed as a minor league free agent. The 26-year old has had some shoulder problems over his career and has long-thought of as a back end of the rotation type armed with a pretty good fastball/curve combo, but fringy slider and change. What he does best is command his pitches and throws strikes. If the former 8^th round pick can stay healthy,  he might see some Major League time in 2012.

So, yes, there is not much to see here. Most of the players discussed will not require or warrant an aggressive FAAB bid should they indeed get the call, but there are least some journeyman with skills who might be worth a flier in AL only formats. If you are looking for mixed-league options, look elsewhere.