Mastersball

I spent the weekend in Las Vegas trying to put together a team that could win the World Championship of Fantasy Baseball. One I drafted last Friday night where I had the first pick and took Albert Pujols. The second team will be drafted tomorrow, Saturday morning and I will have the eighth pick, so as I write this intro on Friday, after the first draft, I have no idea who I will get. So let’s see how these two rosters took shape.

Friday night – “Captain Morgan” the team name for myself and partner Greg Morgan will start the draft of thirty two players with Cardinals 1B Albert Pujols. That part is easy:  waiting two full rounds to see who this league leaves us at 2.14 and 3.01 is torture.

BTW: The format for WCOFB teams is twenty four active players (14 hitters and ten pitchers) with eight reserves. The ten pitchers each period (two lineup periods each week, M-TH and F-SU) must have six starting pitchers, two relievers, and two "free pitchers" FP which means starters or relievers. This change gives more importance to your pitching staff in total as you will be trying to maximize your starts and in addition maximizing strikeouts with your non-starter and non-closer pitchers.

So what did they leave us after the first twenty seven picks?

A set of choices I had not seen before or even thought of, largely because the first pitcher taken off the boards was Roy Halladay at 2.12. When the pick at 2.13 was Andrew McCutchen what was left was second baseman Ian Kinsler and pitchers Felix Hernandez AND Tim Lincecum. We briefly flirted with taking both pitchers but decided on Kinsler and King Felix. On the 4/5 turn we got pitcher Dan Haren and took a slight gamble, but one with a lot of upside in outfielder Drew Stubbs.

Here is the final team with rounds in parentheses:

C – Mike Napoli (7) & Jake Fox* (24)

CI –Albert Pujols (1), Ty Wigginton (17), & Aubrey Huff (8)

MI –Ian  Kinsler (2), Rafael Furcal (10), and Danny Espinosa (11)

OF –Drew Stubbs (5), Manny  Ramirez (9), Austin Jackson (13), Peter Bourjos (14), & Juan Rivera (22)

UT –Kila Ka'aihue (15)

Reserves –Mike Moustakas, Dustin Ackley, John Jaso, and Kevin Kouzmanoff

*Last year Fox played nineteen games at catcher and thirteen in the outfield and ten at first base. So in leagues where position qualifications are twenty games or most games played, Fox may qualify at catcher if they don’t count games at DH (and many mixed leagues don’t). Now I don’t think Fox is moving Wieters aside, but I do think Buck Showalter is a smart enough manager to not sit down the spring training leader in home runs while Fox is that red-hot. Maybe it is a game at catcher and a game at DH and a game at first base and a game in the outfield. With that kind of power I would be happy if he were in the lineup four days a week. And perhaps Derrek Lee is not ready to play at first base on opening day. But I added a third catcher that would be playable just in case the Fox cools off.

SP – Felix Hernandez (3), Dan Haren (4), Jeremy Hellickson (12), Ricj Porcello (20), Brian Duensing (21), & R.A. Dickey (23)

RP –Neftali  Feliz (6), Jonny Venters (16), Hong-Chih Kuo (18), & Jose Contreras (??)

Reserves – J.A. Happ, Clay Hensley, Jon Garland, & Dennis Reyes

It looks like the team has plenty of power and speed but batting average could be an issue. I like the starters and we will have to supplement them depending on how Happ looks, how long Garland is out, and whether former Atlanta Braves prospect JoJo Reyes can continue to pitch as well in the Toronto rotation as he has in spring training. His first two starts are home vs Minnesota and Oakland, so that looks favorable and then we see how he does and when Brandon Morrow comes back.

Saturday morning – This draft would be from the eighth spot and perhaps a slightly tougher field. Again the first two pitchers (Halladay and Lincecum) were taken at 2.13 and 2.14. But from there more were taken earlier than the previous day.

We started with Miguel Cabrera and were happy to select Nelson Cruz in the second round. I was slightly startled but very happy to have Felix Hernandez slip all the way to 3.08 and join us again. In the fourth we got Hunter Pence and in the fifth shortstop Alexei Ramirez. In the sixth round I was very happy to have Dan Haren fall into my lap…..are you sensing something here? Those picks were followed by Pedro Alvarez, Mike Napoli (more than a round later), Gordon Beckham, and then as fate or my man crush would have it – Jeremy Hellickson.

Maybe we should change the team name to the “Three H Club”?

So here is that team:

C –Mike Napoli (8), and Jake Fox (18)

CI –Miguel Cabrera (1), Pedro Alvarez (7), and Adam LaRoche (14)

MI –Gordon Beckham (9), Alexi Ramirez (5), and Danny Espinosa (15)

OF –Nelson Cruz (2), Hunter Pence (4), Andres Torres (12), Peter Bourjos (16), and Jason Kubel (22)

UT – Juan Rivera (24)

Reserves – Julio Borbon, Reid Brignac, and Jonathan Lucroy

SP – Felix Hernandez (3), Dan Haren (6), Jeremy Hellickson (10), Tim Stauffer (17), Derek Lowe (18), Aaron Harang (23), Kyle McClellan (20)

RP –Huston Street (11), Drew Storen (13),  and Clay Hensley (21)

Reserves –Evan Meek, Kyle Lohse, Jordan Lyles, Nick Blackburn, & Jordan Walden

Again it looks like a solid team. Several shots at additional saves and we will have to be vigorous in the pursuit of pitchers who become closers or starting pitcher who were undrafted who could improve the team – but that is the case no matter what league you play in.

Hernandez, Haren, and Hellickson. I wouldn’t have planned on it – but I like it. It does give us a solid core for the starting pitchers and a common ground so that if they are as good as I think they are the other differences in the roster will decide which team might make a solid push in the overall standings.

But when the sports auditors at Examiner.com wanted to have their own league, I could hardly turn down the invitation. No I don’t need another league, but I am their national fantasy baseball writer and, especially after having won the examiners fantasy football league much to the chagrin of the football writers, I had to draft a team.

Sunday morning preplan thoughts

Now I just have to make a plan to beat them. Here are my predraft observations for a league I don’t normally play in - a very shallow 12-team mixed league. And with short rosters – the standard Yahoo configuration of one infielder at each position with three outfielders and two utility players along with two SP, two RP and two pitchers.

The good news is I don’t have to have a second catcher. The better news is I got them to ditch the innings pitched maximum. So how should I draft this team?

Many might wait on a catcher since with only 12 being drafted the last few will be decent. But in my opinion there is such a big potential drop off after the first five that if you can get one of them without a hit to the rest of your team you will have a big edge.

Secondly, the top infielders will be at a huge premium, although you are obviously restricted by your draft position – which I won’t know until I check into the draft room tonight.

It does seem that waiting on pitching should work, and there are so many guys who won’t be in the top 12 that I like that I can wait until the top two tiers (three and then six) go off the board before I dive in and hopefully can find some of Max Scherzer, Cole Hamels, Tommy Hanson, and Mat Latos to put into my SP slots. Neftali Feliz will be a huge wildcard, but as he is the centerpiece of my AL keeper league I am happy to let someone try and beat me with him.

Sunday night draft results

Well part of my plan above was scrapped in round one as I had the tenth pick in the draft and they took all the usual suspects leaving me Carl Crawford – and I couldn’t pass him up there. That’s the good news. The bad news is that it started me thinking and that little bubble led me to pick Kevin Youkilis in the top of the second round. Not that I don’t like Youk – and he should be an RBI machine in the Red Sox lineup, and I was looking at moving him to third base in week three. That would mean I would draft a second first baseman starting them at UT for the two weeks and take a flyer on a third baseman I knew I could draft late (Edwin Encarnacion was stuck in the back of my mind).

By the time I was up in round three I was perhaps over confident in my plan –especially thinking that I could grab Aubrey Huff later and so with both Ian Kinsler and Dustin Pedroia gone, and Brian McCann already off the board, I decided to get Victor Martinez and be well ahead there. I should have taken Adam Dunn who was the next player off the board.

Round four choices were not what I wanted on the hitting side, so I decided with a starter. And with Cliff Lee, Clayton Kershaw, and Jon Lester already gone, I went with Dan Haren. At least Todd would like the pick. Round five’s decimation of my list concluded with Hunter Pence taken right in front of me, so I continued to build the staff with Jered Weaver there and Carlos Marmol on the turn.

The play by play might be interesting to some but my game is getting ready to start in the mud. Suffice it to say that if they take it away from you someplace they have to give it back somewhere else – who could imagine getting Kung Fu Panda in the ninth round (after someone had taken Aubrey Huff in the eighth!). Of course I got some back in the 12^th (wink).

So here is the whole team, with round drafted in parentheses (remember this is a 12-team, 24-round draft and teams start ten hitters and six pitchers).

C – Victor Martinez (3)

1B – Kevin Youkilis (2)

2B – Ben Zobrist (7)

3B – Pablo Sandoval (9)

SS – Starlin Castro (11)

OF – Carl Crawford (1)

OF – Curtis Granderson (8)

OF – Andres Torres (14)

UT – Mike Napoli (12)

UT – Adam LaRoche (16)

SP – Dan Haren (4)

SP – Jered Weaver (5)

RP – Carlos Marmol (6)

RP – Huston Street (13)

P - -  Max Scherzer (10)

P - -  Jeremy Hellickson (15)

Hitting Reserves – Danny Espinosa (17), Manny Ramirez (18), & Austin Jackson (20)

Pitching Reserves – Brandon League (19), Koji Uehara (21), Jair Jurrjens (22), Clay Hensley (23), & Travis Wood (24).

I might be a little short in BA but everything else looks fine – but of course I am staring through raindrops at the field.

As always, questions and discussion is welcome on the message board.

Experienced auction players are very familiar with the concept of inflation in keeper leagues where bargains on some of the very best players mean there are more dollars chasing the available players than there should be. But in actual practice, how do some of the very best players deal with an auction with very high inflation?

The league I am referencing held its NL only auction yesterday – still almost three weeks before opening day. We can do that because the definition for those eligible for both the auction and reserve draft allows for players on the forty man roster and not strictly major league versus minor league. Both Todd and I, with our partners, play in this 12-team league composed of some of the best high-stakes players in the country. So it is not an easy thing to fight through the jungle to get your team. Witness the fact that with only $58 spent on my eight keepers (the max – some would have to keep less) I though that my $202 of auction money would put me in very good shape.

I wasn’t even the team with the most dollars to spend – there was someone with $215 and another with $216, and five teams with more than $200. The poorest team had $132 to spend. Minor leaguers (each team gets only three) have $5-salaries, and that means players like Jason Heyward, Cameron Maybin, Tommy Hanson, Andrew McCutchen and Colby Rasmus contribute to the heavy inflation. But so do players bought for $1, $2, or $3 in the previous year’s draft. Teams can only keep an active player for three years, so some rotation of the player pool is automatically enforced.

But heading into this year’s auction, only Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez would be among the top-10 available hitters. However, most of the top pitchers would be in the pool – nine of the top 11 starting pitchers.

My team kept three hitters – Kelly Johnson, at $20, Colby Rasmus at $5, and Chris Snyder at $4. I also had Buster Posey on my minor league roster and would activate him for $5 but obviously chose to do that post auction so I could buy any $1-catcher and then put Posey in that spot.

On the pitching keepers, I had Ian Kennedy at $10, Jorge de la Rosa at $2, Craig Kimbrel at $10, Drew Storen at $5, and Hong-Chih Kuo at $2.

Now I would need to buy four more pitchers and eleven hitters.

But what kind of budget should I consider?

I thought both Pujols and Hanley would go for close to if not over $50, even if neither were projected to earn over $42. But very high inflation does not necessarily mean you can go spend $50+ on the best players without cutting yourself thin at other positions. Sure you could plan to buy several $1- or $2-players, but in a sharp crowd that would likely mean you had several unproductive slots amongst your 14 hitters. And with 12 teams each having seven reserves and three minor leaguers, you would be hard pressed to cure your ills with the available free agent pool. One other note – there is NO trading in this league.

I prepared two basic budgets – one that would pay up to $50 for Pujols or Ramirez and one that would have my highest hitter in the high $30’s and adding a good, not Tier-1 starting pitcher for $20+.

Twenty-two percent inflation would suggest that Pujols would go in the low $50s and Ramirez in the low $40s. Not even close my friends. When the smoke cleared in the first round, Pujols went for $60 and Hanley for $58. So they weren’t on my team – now what?

I needed a lot of everything on the hitting side and would just have to try and zig and zag – and like you will in a few weeks, I would have to make some bets on certain players. Unfortunately we sometimes don’t really get to choose which number we want our money to ride on. Below Pujols at first base the next best available players would be Carlos Pena or Adam LaRoche. Miss there and after James Loney you would be in the Lance Berkman, Ty Wigginton, and Lyle Overbay tier. It was worse at shortstop where below Ramirez there was Jimmy Rollins and then a severe drop to Jason Bartlett and then an even more severe drop to Alex Gonzalez or Yuniesky Betancourt.

While not a big believer in Rollins putting up anything close to 2007 numbers, I was relatively happy to roster him for $26, where I might have paid for actual value or have a dollar or two of upside. I was even happier to roster Carlos Pena for $19 – well my power side was, my BA gremlin was in for a long day. LaRoche actually went for $20 which would have been fine – who knew in advance, but Loney was clear up to $17.

And then I did a lot of waiting, hoping to catch players at/near value – Raul Ibanez ($13), Alfonso Soriano ($16), Bartlett ($14), Placido Polanco ($9), and Overbay ($6) helped give me the flexibility to reach later for players I had to get – Andres Torres ($25) and Mike Morse ($16) and to move $5 to the pitching budget where I added Tim Hudson ($18), Derek Lowe ($8), Johnny Venters ($8) to handcuff Kimbrel and then have some extra to reach for Tim Stauffer at $12.

Here is the whole roster:

C – Snyder (4) & Kottaras (3) with Posey waiting

CI – Pena (19), Polanco (9), & Overbay (6)

MI – K. Johnson (20), Rollins (26), & Bartlett (14)

OF – Rasmus (5), Ibanez (13), Soriano (16), Torres (25), & Morse (16)

UT – Juan Miranda (9) [who can be moved to CI if a reserve is productive enough]

Reserves – Brandon Boggs, Jason Bourgeois, Chris Denorfia

SP – T. Hudson (18), D. Lowe (8), Stauffer (12), Kennedy (10) & De La Rosa (2)

RP – Kimbrel (10), Storen (5), Kuo (2), & Venters (8)

Reserves – K. Wood, J. Arredondo, Lannan, & K. Kendrick

Glad to answer questions on price points for any player on the message boards.

If you read my Mastersblog post about my American League LABR auction over the weekend, you may have sensed that all did not go according to plan. 

And that is true but only to a point. After leaving my 20-20 strategy to get Kevin Youkilis to anchor my hitting and corner infield, I did a pretty good job of acquiring a lot of talent for twenty and teen investments. The most important thing was that all of them had room for growth (in their projected stats/values) and thus could add profit. 

Two thirds of the way through the draft, I had the following players rostered:

Hitters                                  

• Kevin Youkilis ($33)
• Alexei Ramirez ($22)
• Ben Zobrist ($20)
• Mike Napoli ($20)
• Austin Jackson ($18)
• Curtis Granderson ($20)
• Daric Barton ($13)
• Juan Rivera ($10)

Pitchers

• Neftali Feliz ($21)
• Jose Valverde ($15)
• Jeremy Hellickson ($13)
• Brian Duensing ($8)

Putting Zobrist at second would give me two-thirds each of my middle and corner spots handled, one of my good catchers, and three very nice outfielders. I have more power than it appears at first blush and good run and stolen base product. On the pitching side, Feliz is really a wild card at this point:  Will he be a top AL starting pitcher, or one of the best closers? Irrespective, I have two good starters to two closers,or three good starters and just one closer. 

Then the tough part came. I had a solid target list for the corner/middle infielde spots and decided my third base target would be Kansas City’s Mike Moustakas. Unfortunately I waited a little too long to grab a middle infielder early enough to clarify that picture, and when J.J. Hardy went for $18 (not that everyone agrees that he will be a great rebound target, just that he was far and away the best shortstop at that point in the auction) I was forced to do battle with the dark grey side and go to $14 for the Twins Alexi Casilla. But, at least Casilla has both second  and shortstop eligibility, and finally the chance to be a full time player in Minnesota this year. And that could lead to plenty of stolen bases. 

When Moustakas came up he was unbeknownst to me the primary target for Lawr. While he was outbid when the NFBC team of Greg Ambrosius and Shawn Childs decided to go to a dollar per player for the rest of the draft by bidding $13, I had a quandary. Do I go to $14 and win the player? If so, I will be crippled on adding better players for the remainder of the auction. Ultimately for me this decision was based on the fact that I don’t think "MooseTacos" will be the starting third baseman on Opening Day (if he was an everyday player Moustakas probably wouldn’t have still been available, but then I would have gone the extra dollar or two. 

Unfortunately all this meant there was no good third baseman left to draft.

Enter Plan B – and while not centered on third base specifically it did include a hopeful there. What I decided to do was upgrade my reserve roster during the auction. Now I know this may not be legal in your league but under LABR rules I could buy minor league players in the auction. True, I could hope to get some in the six round reserve draft but everyone would be looking for those same players. I had enough dollars to adequately fill out my pitching staff and still get two or three very good minor league players that I believe will contribute this season. And contributing will be the key. As an aside for this type of team or plan, while Mike Trout the young Angels phenom may be a far more valuable fantasy player to own over the next three to five to ten years, I doubt he will get anywhere near the at bats in 2011 that Moustakas or Dustin Ackley or others will. And 2011 production is all you are interested in for redraft leagues. 

So I got Ackley for $7 – I can move Zobrist to the OF when the young Mariner arrives.

I bought Lonnie Chisenhall who has been absolutely scorching the ball so far in spring training as a third baseman. Sadly the Indians are so confused about whether to fish or cut bait that they spent millions on Orlando Cabrera and are playing him out of position instead of letting one of their good young prospects get the at bats. So, I don’t think Chisenhall will be in Cleveland on opening day – I just hope he is up by June. And really that is my view with all three of the minor leaguers in my lineup – I don’t need all of them to play this year. I don’t need any one of them to play all year. I need two of them to be up by June and play well (or some combination that exceeds that stat wise).

So here is the team:

C – Mike Napoli and Yorvit Torrealba (better than most teams at catcher)

CI – Kevin Youkilis, Lonnie Chisenhall, & Daric Barton (with Andy LaRoche up for Chisenhall in March)

MI – Alexi Casilla, Alexi Ramirez, and Dustin Ackley (with Wil Rhymes or Luis Valbuena in for Ackley to start)

OF – Austin Jackson, Curtis Granderson, Ben Zobrist, Juan Rivera, and Nolan Reimold (or Jarrod Dyson)

DH – Eric Hosmer (with a reserve taking his place until then)

SP – Jeremy Hellickson, Brian Duensing, Brad Penny, Ivan Nova, Bartolo Colon, and  Mike Montgomery (for now)

SP/RP?  - Neftali Feliz

RP – Jose Valverde and Joaquin Benoit

Drafted reserves were – Andy LaRoche (3B/OAK), Wil Rhymes (2B/DET), Luis Valbuena (2B/CLE), Jarrod Dyson (OF/KC), Sergio Santos (RP/CWS), and Eric Hurley (SP/TEX).

On Opening Day, I have all the slots covered. If Hurley doesn’t win a spot in the Rangers rotation he will be dropped for another pitcher. Similarly if Dyson doesn’t open with the Royals he will likely be dropped for a more useful hitter or pitcher. I really only need one of Nova or BFB Colon (yes I was severely reprimanded during the auction for just saying “Colon for $1” instead of using the full handle of Big Fat Bartolo--otoh he has pitched well so far – and yes I know it’s only March, but any starter with the Yankee offense behind him is a plus in AL only leagues). And if Colon doesn’t make the team he is another easy drop.

And then I just wait for my young guns to arrive – and hopefully have the team in contention for them to help with. At least that was my plan Saturday and I still think it has a solid chance today.

It is Saturday morning and I am usually either doing the first draft of the next Captain’s Log or perhaps proofreading it by now, for publication during the week. 

But this Saturday is different. This Saturday I am trying to figure out what to do in a 20, yes I said TWENTY team league. I guess the good news is that I have the seventh pick Sunday night so I know I will get a stud right away. But, good grief Charlie Brown, look at all the excellent players who will disappear over the next twenty-six picks while I wait.

I would love to start the draft with Troy Tulowitzki, but if he is gone I am guessing I will start with one of the top first basemen and while I would like Andrew McCutchen to make it back to 2.14, it is probably more likely I will have to choose between two good second basemen. With the Rangers having announced that Ian Kinsler will lead off this year, I think I will take him over Dustin Pedroia - I will just have to carry a good backup for Kinsler’s annual trip to the DL.

Well that was the pre-plan. Let’s look at what actually happened, and my thought process assembling a team in this very deep format:

1.07 As luck would have it Tulo was mine.

2.14 A surprise here as while both Pedroia & Kinsler were gone, Nelson Cruz was there. I took Nelson.

3.07 I wanted to get a Tier 2 SP, so I took Justin Verlander.

4.14 I took Pedro Alvarez as the third base spot had dried up severely and I didn’t want to go lower there (I did think I could wait on 1B and even 2B).

5.07 If Mike Napoli had not been there for me I would have really waited on a catcher.

Aside: Did I tell you how long it seems to wait twenty six picks? If I don’t take Napoli with that fifth pick,  I not only miss out on him but perhaps the next few choices. Because the league is on Yahoo, we are only drafting one of each infielder. Still the difference between a contributor and the twentieth best catcher is severe. More so, once you get past the top few names at second base, wait, because there will be a usable player for that spot late in the draft. So it is catcher, third base and shortstop where I decided I needed to draft a solid player while waiting at first base and second base. 

6.14 With pitchers flying off the board in twenty pick rounds, I needed to get a solid corps, even if it meant delaying on closers, so Ted Lilly hopped aboard.

7.07 Daniel Hudson added as well giving me three solid starting pitchers.

8.14 Here I picked Angel Pagan – I was hoping to add three double digit homers/20+ swipes to my outfield.

9.07 Joel Hanrahan became my first closer.

10.14 Okay I had waited enough and got the solid if unspectacular Adam LaRoche.

11.07 I wanted to pair Pagan with Andres Torres but some Giant fan snagged Andres, so I got Austin Jackson who should have already been rostered.

12.14 Second base goes to Danny Espinosa: 20/20 potential with the youngster.

13.07 Fernando Rodney becomes my second closer, for anyone who can spell save is getting drafted in this league.

14.14 He may start the year in the minors but I think Michael Pineda will be solid when he arrives in Seattle.

15.07 I added Alexi Casilla for speed and the 2B/SS eligibility

16.14 Rick Porcello – I like the upside on an improved Tiger team.

That fills the basic roster and in the four reserve rounds I added Peter Bourjos, Tyler Clippard, Mike Moustakas, and J.P. Howell (who will go to a DL slot right away and let me add another pitcher – but he could have value when he returns).

Did I mention how long it is between picks in 20 team leagues?

The American League lineups, even with the additional hitter, seem more locked in and ready to go than those in the NL. Of course, that could change for both the AL Champion Texas Rangers should they actually trade Michael Young.

As of today the Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees, Oakland Athletics, Tampa Bay Rays, and Toronto Blue Jays seem to be settled on their hitters other than moving a few hitters up or down in the lineup. The other AL teams have the following question marks:

BOSTON RED SOX – Will shortstop Marco Scutaro be healthy and ready to start the season AND stay ahead of Jed Lowrie? There is a nagging question of whether catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia (Salty for short) is truly ready to be the number one catcher, but the Sawks have Jason Varitek to help and play more if necessary.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX – Third base seems to be the only true position battle depending on whether prospect Brent Morel can clearly win the job from Mark Teahen and Dayan Viciedo. As of today it seems like Morel will be the starter on opening day.

CLEVELAND INDIANS – With Orlando Cabrera signed to play either second base (or shortstop if they shift Asdrubal Cabrera to second) the unsettled position seems to also be third base. Jayson Nix and Luis Valbuena seem poised to battle for this unless the Indians give middle infielder Jason Donald a chance. Later in the season I would expect either Jason Kipnis or Lonnie Chisenhall to be playing third over the opening day starter.

DETROIT TIGERS – Assuming Miguel Cabrera is ready to go on opening day; the lineup appears to be pretty well set. If the Tigers sit catcher Alex Avila against LHP which they clearly should do, then Victor Martinez would catch those games and there would be some additional at bats at designated hitter, perhaps some days off the field for Magglio Ordonez and a chance for one of the younger outfielders to be in the lineup.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS – Will any of the talented young Royals move up from the minors on opening day? Two have a good chance. The first would be CF Lorenzo Cain obtained in the Zach Greinke trade. If Cain is not ready to play every day in Kansas City, veteran Melky Cabrera will be in center. The other, perhaps slightly less likely would be third baseman Mike Moustakas. If Moustakas starts at AAA then plans would be for Mike Aviles to start the season at third with Chris Getz at second. Moustakas on the opening day roster means a decision on those two would have to be made at second base. Veteran catcher Jason Kendall could well surprise but is likely not to be ready to play until May at the earliest which would have Brayan Pena or Lucas May catching.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS of ANAHEIM – The Angels really appear to be set everywhere except third base and even that is a choice or platoon of hitter on the club last year – likely Maicer Izturis or Brandon Wood. There are also some questions about how many at bats each of the catchers will get. Jeff Mathis is the best defensive catcher, certainly endearing him to manager Mike Scioscia a former catcher himself. But Mathis struggles at the plate and that will certainly give Bobby Wilson some at bats or finally open the door for highly touted prospect Hank Conger, a good switch hitter who while not as good defensively is not bad and rates to be the Halos catcher of the future.

MINNESOTA TWINS – No position battles for the Twins, but first baseman Justin Morneau missing any time at the beginning of the season would force some temporary reassignments in RF and DH.

SEATTLE MARINERS – Things would appear to be set with the Mariners’ lineup aw ell Unless highly touted prospect Dustin Ackley forces his way into the lineup at second base before opening day. Otherwise Brendan Ryan should be holding down the spot until Ackley is recalled from AAA.

TEXAS RANGERS – Is Michael Young still a Ranger? Is so he will DH against RHP and play some second when Ian Kinsler is out of the lineup and give both shortstop Elvis Andrus and third baseman Adrian Beltre a day off here and there, perhaps playing some first base as well. If Young is traded it may weaken the Rangers clubhouse and depth but a platoon of Mike Napoli and David Murphy at DH would be very effective.

With spring training games set to start Friday we should take a quick look at the few positional battles for each team. Today we will do National League teams and follow it up Wednesday with a look at the AL teams. 

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS – The one job not settled with the new Kirk Gibson version of the Snakes is at first base where Juan Miranda, obtained in a trade from the Yankees was set to compete with Brandon Allen. The Diamondbacks have recently thrown a third hat in to the ring signing veteran 1B/DH Russell Branyan to a minor league contract to compete for the job. The problem with this competition is that all three bat from the left side of the plate thus negating what might be an effective platoon. If Branyan hits well enough to make the club, I would expect Allen (who still has minor league options while the others don’t) to be sent to AAA Reno so he can hit every day. Miranda was the pre-Branyan favorite and I still think he wins the job – But he can’t afford a poor spring training allowing either of the others to steal the job. 

ATLANTA BRAVES – There isn’t really a position battle IF Chipper Jones is really healthy enough to return this year and thus send Martin Prado to left field. Given Jones’ injury history though either Joe Mather or Jordan Schafer could see more at bats than most fourth outfielders.

CINCINNATI REDS – Manager Dusty Baker has said that Paul Janish is his starting shortstop this year. Assuming Janish has a good spring training that is likely but he had better perform with Edgar Renteria breathing down his neck and not really suited for a utility role. Left field is also slightly unsettled although I would expect a platoon of newly acquired Fred Lewis with the returning Jonny Gomes. Lewis will have some additional value if this comes to pass as he should lead off against RHP.

COLORADO ROCKIES – Second base is the position in question for the Rockies with Eric Young Jr. competing against former Mariner Jose Lopez. Free agent signee Ty Wigginton could also figure in this mix assuming that Ian Stewart strengthens his hold on third base and veterans Todd Helton and Jason Giambi hold down first base. There are three outfielders – Seth Smith, Dexter Fowler, and Ryan Spilborghs competing for two spots alongside CarGo, with Smith the early favorite to start in right field.

FLORIDA MARLINS – If Marlins prospect Matt Dominguez can show he is ready he could be starting at third base on Opening Day. If he starts at AAA then veteran Wes Helms would figure to hold down the hot corner, perhaps spelled occasionally by Emilio Bonifacio.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS – Speculation is that veterans Marcus Thames and Jay Gibbons will platoon in Left field, BUT there is the possibility that Tony Gwynn Jr. could play so well in the spring that the Dodgers would start him in CF, moving Matt Kemp to RF and Andre Ethier to LF. Sadly none of these scenarios give Xavier Paul any chance to play much.

NEW YORK METS – Who will start at second base? Veteran Luis Castillo is still on the roster and there are some who want Daniel Murphy to get a real shot at the job which would improve the offense. Given that the Metropolitans don’t rate to contend in the NL East, it would be more interesting if former Toronto Blue Jay prospect Brad Emaus were given the shot to start his major league career.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES – Most of the reporting on the Phillies centers on that starting rotation, but I am far more interested in who will start the season in right field.  I think most expected that with Jayson Werth leaving that uber prospect Domonic Brown would be in right, but it appears that the Phillies aren’t sold on Brown being fully ready and there is talk of him either platooning with Ben Francisco or returning to AAA in which case Francisco might platoon with Ross Gload. Hopefully Brown, likely a strong 20/20 player will get his shot.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES – The main question for the rebuilt Pirates is whether they can find a team that want to trade for Ryan Doumit. If not, he may see some at bats at catcher where Chris Snyder is the starter or right field where Garrett Jones should be platooning with Matt Diaz, or even first base although Lyle Overbay was signed to be there every day.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS – The only unsettled position battle in the Bay seems to be right field if Mark DeRosa is finally healthy and might take at bats from Nate Schierholtz. It is also possible for the Giants to get Pat Burrell some at bats there letting Cody Ross play every day in left field.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS – If David Freese is healthy enough there will be no question about third base but that does not appear to be the case making utility infielders Nick Punto or Tyler Greene candidates to start at third. There was a rumor that OF Allen Craig might be given a shot at third as well.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS – If Rick Ankiel is the everyday left fielder than Roger Bernadina will have to settle for fourth outfielder at bats or battle for them with Mike Morse who once again has no position to get his bat into the lineup.

At least the hitting spots in Chicago, Houston, Milwaukee and San Diego appear to be set for now.

In the next Captain’s Log we will take a look at AL position battles.

So here is a WCOFB (fourteen team leagues) draft listing the first round of picks and who each of those teams got in the second round.

1.01 Miguel Cabrera, 1B, DET (2.14 Joe Mauer, C, MIN)

1.02 Hanley Ramirez, SS, FLA (2.13 Ian Kinsler, 2B, TEX)

1.03 Albert Pujols, 1B, STL …. (2.12 Adam Wainwright, P, STL)

1.04 Troy Tulowitzki, SS, COL (2.11 Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS)

1.05 Carlos Gonzalez, OF, COL (2.10 Matt Kemp, OF, LAD)

1.06 Carl Crawford, OF, BOS..(2.10 Felix Hernandez, P, STL)

1.07 Roy Halladay, P, PHL …..(2.08 Josh Hamilton, OF, TEX)

1.08 Joey Votto, 1B, CIN ……. (2.07 Kevin Youkilis, 1B, BOS)

1.09 Ryan Braun, OF, MLW … (2.06 Matt Holliday, OF, STL)

1.10 Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY (2.05 Ryan Howard, 1B, PHL)

1.11 Evan Longoria, 3B, TB …. (2.04 Prince Fielder, 1B, MLW)

1.12 David Wright, 3B, NYM..(2.03 Mark Teixeira, 1B, NYY)

1.13 Chase Utley, 2B, PHL …..(2.02 Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS)

1.14 Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, BOS (2.01 Alex Rodriguez, 3B, NYY)

My observations on this draft (which I participated in – extra credit for guessing my draft spot before continuing) are:

a) While pitchers are more important in this contest than the NFBC or other mixed leagues, I am still not a fan or drafting a pitcher in the first or (early) second round as you are passing on an impact bat for your offense;

b) I would take Doc Halladay anywhere late in the second round and while I would prefer to draft King Felix early in the third round, I could see taking him at 2.12 or 2.13 if you think the team(s) behind you might do the same or take him with the first or second pick in the third round;

c) I think Mauer can be an impact player at catcher but you have to realize that absent a return to double digits in home runs and more than a handful of stolen bases, you are paying a VERY high premium for the empty BA boost;

d) I dislike the start of the roster construction of the two drafters who started the draft OF/OF. There are lots of outfielders who can significantly help your offense in multiple categories available later in drafts, but failing to get one of the top eight first basemen or top four third basemen or one of the few impact middle infielders when that WAS available means you are going to have problems both correcting that AND getting the starting pitchers you need later in the draft;

e) Some of you may think that Youkilis going in the second round is early but in addition to his pretty consistent numbers in four categories, remember that his shift to third base this year would allow that drafter who missed the top third basemen to take a flyer at 3B, draft another solid first basemen later in the draft and then move Youkilis to third base in Week 3;

f) I like the positional starts of the teams that were able to start by going 1B/3B, 2B/3B, SS/2B, 1B/2B and the aforementioned 1B/1B.

I won’t be doing any twelve team mixed leagues this year, but this one presented by our friends at KFFL is interesting not only for the ADP but because of the commentary by each industry participant about their choice.

With Andy Pettitte “officially” retiring the Yankees are down to a three man starting rotation. So how do they complete their pitching staff?

Obviously spring training will bring some answers, likely along with even more questions. But I don’t know any Yankee fan who thinks that Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon are really the answers, and there wouldn’t be the need to look that far back in the pasture if the Yankee management had enough confidence in Sergio Mitre or Ivan Nova.

Pettitte will be hard to replace. Not just because he is the all-time leader in post season wins, but he was a stabilizing presence for the Yankees and their fans. And in all honesty, while Pettitte says his days of taking the mound every five days are over, one has to wonder in the back of our minds whether or not Andy picks up the hotline to Brian Cashman once the Clemens/McNamee trials are over and the season underway.

Of course by that time the Yankees could have traded Jesus Montero for a front line starter. Trading within the same division is generally avoided, but Tampa Bay with a stable full of pitching would seem a likely partner right away, while losses during the season will flush out several pretenders who would like to acquire the power-hitting young catcher.

Freddy Garcia was more effective last year with the White Sox than I would have thought and with a really good bullpen in the Bronx, anyone who can give them five or six quality innings could start for a team with that much offense. So Garcia is certainly worth the spring training look and I think Nova can pitch – at least well enough to get the ball every five days.

And if all those wouldbees were just vying for the fifth spot in the rotation, that would be fine, which brings me to my answer for the Yankees – just give Joba Chamberlain the real chance to start that he deserves. True his early career numbers say he has been much better as a relief pitcher. But he really hasn’t been given the chance to fully develop as a starter.

Well, there is no time like the present.

What is YOUR objective?

We all do a lot of drafts, some of us too many perhaps. And two recent drafts and a message board question encouraged me to try and put a question in front of you.

What is your objective?

In this draft?

With this pick?

Now the reality is that once you are actually in a draft it would be hard to sit back and ask yourself these questions every time it was your pick. So the time to think about them is now.

I see a lot of “industry drafts” – sorry I just can’t call them expert drafts when some of the drafters wouldn’t qualify in local leagues. At times I just wonder what the heck they are thinking about when they make a pick. Well some of them are trying to prove they are smarter than the rest of the league; that they picked a guy before anyone else; that their insight (as in site?) was better.

But we ALL need to look at why we make certain picks.

Yes YOU may really like that player. Does that make him the right pick for your team in that specific league? Are you really trying to win the league if you are making picks for any reason other than that was the player you thought would give your specific team the most value at that pick or was a player you had to have even if you knew you might be jumping the draft to get him?

Hey if it is a yahoo league (note lower case) or a free league (someone explain why regular roto players play in leagues with no entry fee and nothing to win? Bad enough that some of us have to do them for information and analysis) or a mock draft and you want to try a different way to draft something that is a different case.

I am talking about leagues where you pay money to win money or maybe are freerolled to have a chance at winning something of value. Once you have analyzed the rules of the league and formulated a draft plan, make the best pick you can. Put together the best roster you can. If you really love a certain player but you don’t need him why are you going to pick him there? Don’t pick with your heart when your head says there is a better pick for your roster.

Be true to your objectives in league drafts. Use your mock drafts to satisfy your whims.

Your teams and your leagues deserve your best effort…….unless of course you don’t care about winning or whining.