Mastersball

Captain's Log


Another LABR of Love PDF Print E-mail
Captain's Log
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Monday, 04 March 2013 10:15

Saturday night was the auction for the AL LABR (League of Alternative Baseball Reality, the longest running fantasy industry league which started in 1994.

I approached the draft with this plan –

  • Don’t spend over $30 on any player – while this means you don’t get the Miggys or Trouts, you should be able to budget the rest of your monies to get a starter or at worst platoon player for all of your hitters. You win more points IF you have more at bats as the Stars and Scrubs drafters will actually have hitters with negative value in their lineup in one or more spots.
  • Get two good catchers – they don’t have to be the most expensive, in fact I was trying for two at $15 each – as long as they play most of the time and have batting average that won’t drag your team down. Again teams who have near zeroes at their second catcher much less their primary backstop will be draining the extra production of their stars to just break even. Yes you can find home run hitters late but their averages will drag you down (unless you have a gigantic buffer).
  • Get really solid players at 1B, 3B, 2B, and SS, likely going into the low 20's and then hope you can get starting players in the $5-10 range for you MI and CI.
  • I allocated $190 for hitters and $70 for pitchers
  • So on the pitching side I would try and get one ace starting pitcher and one of the better closers or the best two starting pitchers I could afford for $40 or less and then bottom feed for closers. There are always new closers that emerge during the year and this year especially in the AL there are very few dependable save producers – even the venerable Mariano Rivera has question marks.
  • So how did things play out? Well at least for those who didn’t listen live on Sirius/XM radio I will give you a brief recap with my reasoning. I was asked when interviewed for the radio broadcast if I had any players on my must get list. Frankly I never go into a draft or auction with that mindset. What if you don’t get that player? Why would you waste extra dollars on just one player when you need a balanced productive roster?

    I did have a couple of guys at each position that I thought might fit well into my budget but you must take the value the auction gives you rather than reaching too much. On the other hand you must fill a need when you have control (dollar wise) later in the draft. So off we go ……

    I did some mild bidding as the draft started up knowing that the prices for Mike Trout ($42), Miguel Cabrera ($40), Robinson Cano ($35), Justin Verlander ($31), and David Price ($27) among the early nominations were going for more than I wanted to spend. In fact it wasn’t until late in the second round of nominations that I landed my first player – Texas closer Joe Nathan for $18.

    The next player I landed was Chris Sale for exactly $20. So I had the backbone of my pitching staff but through the first three rounds still did not have a hitter. That changed abruptly when I landed Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus for what seemed like a slightly soft $21. His runs scored and stolen bases are nice contributions in a shallow MI pool but as I said I wanted to get a good player at both SS and 2B. Jason Kipnis who I liked last year was out of range at $26 and frankly while the room was not egregious in their early overspending, the auction through five rounds was overspent.

    Early in the sixth round I landed one player I do like for an improvement on a nice first season in 2012 when Yoenis Cespedes in just 480 at bats had 23 home runs, 16 stolen bases, and 82 RBI with a .292 BA. I think he adds 5-10 in each counting category with likely a slight reduction in batting average. So I added Cespedes as my most expensive player and key outfielder at $29

    Unfortunately I can give you every twist and turn in the draft – useful only if you are battling insomnia, but I will give a few interesting developments and list my full team and my six reserve picks. Remember that in LABR you can’t just move players in and out of your lineup – if a pitcher is killing you, your only recourse is to drop him. But the reserve players are valuable in that they can be activated and then reserved as long as you have the active roster opening to use.

    I didn’t quite get the prime cut of the good but not expensive catchers – Joe Mauer, Matt Wieters, and Victor Martinez all going for just under $20 – but I did get Ryan Doumit for $16 and A.J. Pierzynski for $14 to give me to solid catchers who should hit 15+ home runs and have decent batting averages.

    It was a long time before I got my third pitcher but eventually landed Tampa’s Alex Cobb for $9. All the rest of my pitchers were added in the end game when I had some control.

    So here is the Mastersball team in the AL:

    C – Doumit ($16) & Pierzynski ($14)

    CI – Billy Butler ($27), Kyle Seager ($20), and Mitch Moreland ($10)

    MI – Jose Altuve ($19), Andrus ($21), and Hiroyuki Nakajima ($5)

    OF – Cespedes ($29), Justin Maxwell ($10), Leonys Martin ($13), Juan Rivera ($3), Casper Wells ($2)

    UT – Mike Olt ($3)

    SP – Sale ($20), Cobb ($9), Jason Hammel ($7), Mark Buehrle ($4), Drew Smyly ($4), & Jose Quintana ($3)

    RP – Nathan ($18), Sean Doolittle ($3), & Phil Coke ($2)

    Reserves – I picked in the late middle of the snake at 1.08

    1.08 Robbie Ross, P, Texas – huge bonus if he wins the 5th spot in the rotation

    2.05 Carlos Peguero, OF, SEA – good power and hedge for Wells

    3.08 Conor Gillaspie, 3B, CWS – some chance he could make club out of spring training

    4.05 Hector Santiago, LHP, CWS - likely starts in bullpen BUT would be 5th starter if John Danks falters

    5.05 Daniel Nava, OF, BOS – likely in a platoon but could replace Rivera when Granderson comes back

    6.08 Scott Downs, LHP, LAA – did well last year and we know Scioscia trusts him in the 9th.

    Always glad to discuss the auction or my team in the forums and will have a few updates about the competition in this great league. Look for the “Leviathan” – the Sports Weekly edition out in two weeks with full AL prices and rosters as well as those of the NL which took place on Sunday night.

    Last Updated on Monday, 04 March 2013 10:24
     
    Misconceptions from A Through U PDF Print E-mail
    Captain's Log
    Written by Perry Van Hook   
    Saturday, 12 January 2013 07:30

    As in Arizona and Justin Upton and their trade with Seattle as you have seen on many channels today. I see many opinions about the deal between the Diamondbacks and Mariners, but many of those are flawed in my view.

    Yes, both the Diamondbacks and Mariners knew that J-Up had Seattle as one of the four teams on his no-trade clause. But not only are there ways around that, Seattle adding a sweetener that would convince Upton to drop his block, perhaps a transfer bonus, buying him a house in Seattle or more likely giving him an option for the third remaining year (2015) on his current contract.

    But both Arizona and Seattle announced the trade (purportedly without asking Upton) for additional reasons. For Arizona, they get other teams to take notice that they are in fact serious about trading Upton, not just “listening to trade offers.” The failed trade may re-open dialogue with Texas or initiate discussions with Atlanta, where Justin could be united in the Braves outfield with his older brother.

    Atlanta would know they could then move Martin Prado to third base, thus making Juan Francisco a potential part of the Upton trade along with one of Randall Delgado/Julio Teheran and a younger pitching prospect.

    Texas no longer has to offer either Elvis Andrus or Jurickson Profar, as Arizona received Didi Gregorius in their deal with Cleveland. So third baseman Mike Olt is the first piece along with a few of the Rangers' many good pitching prospects.

    Seattle, if they could swing the deal (and unlike many articles penned today I don’t think they would be giving up too much), would then have Upton adding to their weak offense AND playing with Felix Hernandez along with many other pieces they either have in place or are just a phone call away. They would only be parting with Taijuan Walker and still have top pitching prospects Danny Hultzen and James Paxton ready late this year or more likely in 2014.

    But even if they couldn’t convince Justin Upton to move north, they let other teams know that the presumably untouchable Walker would be available if they could meet the Mariners' price. So if they can’t make the Upton trade, they may get many new offers this week.

    Bottom line in my opinion is even if they can’t complete the Upton trade, both the Diamondbacks and Mariners made other strides in trying to better their respective teams.

    Last Updated on Saturday, 12 January 2013 10:30
     
    MLB Doldrums? PDF Print E-mail
    Captain's Log
    Written by Perry Van Hook   
    Monday, 24 December 2012 14:05

    If you are frantically searching for news from MLB teams, relax and enjoy a few days of either presents or silence and maybe work on your lists (you can never have too many lists or update them often enough). Part of the delay in new signing or trades is because the MLB offices in New York are closed until Wednesday.

    There is another reason that Michael Bourn and others haven’t been signed yet – the new rules on draft pick compensation require that to be eligible for an extra draft pick teams must have made a $13.3 Million qualifying offer. While this part of the changes is good in eliminating compensatory picks for good middle relievers, there is a downside – in order to sign of the players who was made a qualifying offer that team would forfeit its first round pick (unless they have a top ten pick in which case they forfeit their second round pick.

    In addition to the huge amount of money to sign Bourn a team also had to give up a first round pick AND the associated money to sign that draft pick. That is quite a heavy investment. Teams who have a top ten pick – yes like the Cleveland Indians won’t lose their top ten pick but will forfeit their second round pick and slot monies. This not only makes it advantageous for those teams but now enables them to make some very creative trades.

    We haven’t seen this yet but I will guess we see at least one of these “sign and trade” deals made soon and Cleveland is in the primary position because now they would only lose their third round pick. So they could sign Bourn, forfeit the third rounder and then trade Bourn to a team that doesn’t want to lose its first round pick for a very good minor leaguer – a better player than they would have been able to draft.

    Now we just have to wait until Wednesday to see if teams are smart enough to make one of those trades.

    Another team that looks to be on the verge of a trade is the Arizona Diamondbacks who recently signed OF Cody Ross to a three year deal. The problem is that Ross is now the fifth outfielder on that team along with Justin Upton, Jason Kubel, Gerardo Parra, and Adam Eaton. Ross would be a fine platoon partner with Parra so the most likely player to be traded would appear to be Kubel who has one year left at a reasonable $7.5 million. Tampa Bay is a team looking for more power so that might be a good match but any other AL team that has the DH slot might also be interested in Kubel. Of course there is always the chance the Diamondbacks finally find a team that wants to overpay for Upton but the matches there seem hard to find. Having “invested” a lot in SS Didi Gregorius the only thing the DBacks could really want to upgrade their lineup would be a STUD third baseman. Hard to see that trade or one for a number one SP.

    We will just have to wait and see
    Last Updated on Thursday, 27 December 2012 08:38
     
    2012 AL LABR Review PDF Print E-mail
    Captain's Log
    Written by Perry Van Hook   
    Sunday, 07 October 2012 00:00

    The American League in LABR had a fantastic finish this year, with the team that held the league lead since June sitting in first by only a half-of-a-point heading into the final three-day week, with three teams separated by only a point-and-a-half. For a detailed look, click here

    Just watching that fabulous finish while my team was in 5th place motivated me to take a look back at the auction last March and see what worked, and what prevented me from being amongst those teams fighting for the title.

    While the complete draft review is archived if you want to read it, I would summarize by saying my offense was good with Adam Jones ($21), Alex Avila ($17), Alcides Escobar ($13), and Andy Dirks ($4) being the best buys. Brett Lawrie ($28) didn’t live up to my expectations, but he and Matthew Joyce ($21) and others were not the reason I lost the league. Even the few disappointments--Jeff Francoeur ($17) and Casey Kotchman ($6)--did not lose the league.

    One roster move and the saves I thought I drafted really jumped this team off the tracks. My starting pitching selections – Jeremy Hellickson ($14), Matt Harrison ($6), Jarrod Parker ($4), and (at the time) Alfredo Aceves ($2) were the first of the two strengths of the team. But, those relievers I counted on for my saves--Daniel Bard ($13), Jordan Walden ($16), and even Kyle Farnsworth (only $4)--really disappointed. If not for Aceves being moved to the bullpen in Boston and a nice free agent pickup of Jared Burton, I would not have finished with 31 saves and five points in the category.

    The other strength of the draft was my six reserve selections – especially with the 11th pick in that snake draft. The reserves in LABR are far more than just some players who might help during the year because a reserve player can be moved from active back to reserve then back to active in any given week. Other players cannot be reserved unless they are sent to the minors (players who are injured can be put on the DL).

    You will see that only half of my six reserves among Kelly Shoppach, Mike Montgomery, Alex Liddi, Luis Mendoza, Vinnie Catricala, and Drew Smyly even played in the majors this year, but that trio were key additions. Shoppach, because he backed up my cheap second catcher play of Josh Donaldson ($3), would play for the rest of the year for me; Mendoza because not only did he start a number of games for the Kansas City Royals but because I could reserve him for a tough start or when he was sent to the bullpen; and, Smyly because while he did not make the Opening Day roster for the Detroit Tigers, he did make the rotation and was called up by Jim Leyland (andme) in short order, and at least for the beginning of the year he was quite valuable for a reserve.

    There were many good free agent additions and roster moves. But, one truly terrible move cost me a lot of home runs and runs batted in and countless hours of rest. You see, I had filled my middle infield slot in the auction with one Minnesota Twin named Trevor Plouffe. Quite a pick in early March, but early in the year Plouffe was benched and that empty spot (and the devil) made me cut him (if only he had been sent down right away) in the first week of May to add Wil Rhymes. UGH: Had I held onto Plouffe I might have finished 4th, and together with those missing saves, who knows? But, such is rotisserie life.

     

    Last Updated on Sunday, 07 October 2012 11:23
     
    Drafting for an Edge PDF Print E-mail
    Captain's Log
    Written by Perry Van Hook   
    Friday, 07 September 2012 13:17

    You have heard the mantra “Go big or go home”, but how does it translate at your fantasy football draft?

    In large part the construction of your team in a draft is determined by your draft position. If you have a top three pick you are taking a running back (let’s base the discussion on 4 pts for passing touchdowns and six points for rushing touchdowns). The draft board starts to break with pick 1.04 because this year there isn’t a consensus pick for RB4 – some will take Chris Johnson who says he has everything back; some will hope that this is the first year that Darren McFadden plays more than twelve games in a season; many would have taken Maurice Jones-Drew if he had been in training camp and was starting Week 1.

    Thursday night I drafted in an FFPC  event – the 96 team Super Satellite where the top four teams from each of the eight twelve teams leagues after eleven weeks of play will cash at the league level and advance to the 32 team bracketed elimination tournament for the big payday. FFPC scoring in addition to 4/6 touchdowns is PPR for RB and WR but gives 1.5 PPR for TE. In addition the starting lineup requirements are QB/RB/RB/WR/WR/TE with two Flex spots, so you could actually play three TE if they were good enough or more often two especially for bye week and matchup plays.

    Greg Morgan (Masters of the NFFC/NFBC column here) and I have a strong partnership for teams we call “Captain Morgan” for obvious reasons in addition to sharing the quest for Life, Love & especially for high stakes fantasy teams LOOT.

    We drew the less than ideal twelfth spot in our league. You can never really tell who drafters will take when they actually sit down at the table even if it’s only a $500 league but we knew the draft would start with some combination of Foster/Rice/McCoy. Calvin Johnson would be gone as would Aaron Rodgers and in a TE friendly league, Jimmy Graham would also be among the first eleven picks. We thought correctly that DMac and Chris Johnson would be gone so that makes eight players off the board when we picked, but who would the other three players be? We wanted to take the Cowboys Demarco Murray if he was available, and we had also saved a spot for Rob Gronkowski if he was available. We weren’t crazy about jumping another wide receiver into the first round but we had thought if all the other possibles were gone we might take Tom Brady or Drew Brees. The rationale is that you can’t chase running backs with what will be available with several teams ahead of you there so GO BIG and create an edge at other positions. So what did our leaguemates leave us?

     

    1.01 Adrian Foster
    1.02 Ray Rice
    1.03 LeSean McCoy
    1.04 Jimmy Graham (rose to 4 or 5 in many drafts in this event)
    1.05 Darren McFadden
    1.06 Calvin Johnson
    1.07 Demarco Murray (so much for that plan)
    1.08 Chris Johnson (no real surprises yet ….BUT)
    1.09 Julio Jones (the hype train jumped the tracks)
    1.10 Aaron Rodgers
    1.11 Matt Forte (last RB I would have considered in 2nd round)

    So what is strangely missing? Yes the other elite quarterbacks and that should be the case in leagues with four point passing touchdowns so our opponents were on point. But we wanted the advantage at two positions so we ended the first round with

    1.12 Tom Brady (get that record back Tom Terrific)

    And started with his BIG target

    2.01 Rob Gronkowski (very hard to cover a 6’6” TE who plays like a WR)

    2.02 Drew Brees
    2.03 Maurice Jones-Drew
    2.04 Doug Martin (a little high but hey if it's your guy …)
    2.05 Trent Richardson
    2.06 Darren Sproles (nice pairing with Murray)
    2.07 Brandon Marshall (with Calvin)
    2.08 Jamaal Charles
    2.09 Ryan Mathews (say reach)
    2.10 Adrian Peterson (that's three RBs getting near zeroes in Week 1)
    2.11 Larry Fitzgerald
    2.12 Aaron Hernandez
    Now third round with team through three
    3.01 Roddy White (Foster/Hernandez/White)
    3.02 Andre Johnson (Rice/Peterson/Johnson)
    3.03 A.J. Green (McCoy/Fitzgerald/Green)
    3.04 Fred Jackson (Graham/Mathews/Jackson)
    3.05 Steven Jackson (McFadden/Charles/Jackson)
    3.06 Marshawn Lynch (Calvin/Marshall/Lynch)
    3.07 Antonio Gates (Murray/Sproles/Gates)
    3.08 Ahmad Bradshaw (CJ/Richardson/Bradshaw)
    3.09 Wes Welker (Julio/Martin/Welker)
    3.10 Greg Jennings (Rodgers/MJD/Jennings)
    3.11 Victor Cruz (Forte/Brees/Cruz)
    3.12 Percy Harvin (Brady/Gronkowski/Harvin)

    We thought we might be able to gain a slighter edge at WR with this turn and I think we did with Harvin and Jordy Nelson, our pick at 4.01), and our fifth round selection of Brandon Lloyd.

    But of course this comes at a price and for this team it would be starting well behind at RB1 and RB2. But we were prepared to take the Schussman route (Chris Schussman was the first winner of WCOFF in 2002 and after his early rounds he pounded secondary running backs – those who might be “handcuffs” (there were more before the league went so pass heavy) or rookies. So three of our next four and five of our next seven picks were running backs.

     

    6.01 Peyton Hillis (splitting touches with Charles - think Thomas Jones)
    7.12 Justin Blackmon (WR4 but Flex2 for us)
    8.01 Jonathan Dwyer
    9.12 Robert Turbin
    10.01 Chris "Beanie" Wells (starting RB in round ten)
    11.12 Joe Flacco (with Brady its bye plus weather protection)
    12.01 Taiwan Jones (for DMac vacations)
    13.12 Vick Ballard plus
    16.01 Lamar Miller
    18.01 Keiland Williams (starting RBs for Lions have great value)

    Okay you hate our running backs right now – but look what could happen. And really Hillis is now a RB2 so we just need ONE of those RBullets to gain starter status (or more likely early one to be a good play in different weeks) – IF/when Marshawn Lynch is out with back issues Turbin is in; if Arizona can fix the O line issues and Wells can stay healthy he is a powerful runner; Dwyer has rapidly emerged as the best current Steeler RB and who knows when/if Mendenhall will be ready; Taiwan Jones has climbed over Mike Goodson behind McFadden; and both Ballard and Miller are behind less than stellar starters in Indianapolis and Miami.

    Not for the faint of heart but it can work and we think gives us a greater chance to get to a Week 16 title game. Here is the entire roster to start the season:

     

    QB - Brady (9) & Flacco (8)
    RB - Hillis (7), Dwyer (4), Turbin (11), Wells (10), Jones (5), Ballard (4), Miller (7), & Williams (5)
    WR - Harvin (11), Nelson (10), Lloyd (9), Blackmon (6), James Jones (10), & Bess (7)
    TE - Gronkowski (9) & Jordan Cameron (10)
    K - Greg Zuerlein (9)
    DST - Buffalo Bills (8)
    As always, comments and discussion are welcome here on in the FF Forum.
    GOOD LUCK to YOU in your draft(s) this weekend.

     

     

     

     

    Last Updated on Saturday, 08 September 2012 07:05
     
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