Mastersball

Captain's Log


Catching UP PDF Print E-mail
Captain's Log
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Sunday, 18 March 2012 15:21

While many of you detest drafting catchers, they are a fact of fantasy life and are not going away. So you should learn to like drafting catchers – they can give you a big advantage over your competitors in two catcher leagues.

That doesn’t necessarily mean drafting them early. Actually I am against that unless it is a hitter who will give you solid production at the position. Mike Napoli was a fine example of that last year – headed to Texas and a superb home park hitting atmosphere and lineup. This year Napoli is I fear being drafted a little too early if you factor in a likely regression in batting average and are even remotely concerned about his ankle problems not yet being resolved. Still the power will be there.

But if you do draft Napoli and want to totally blow off drafting another catcher for most of the draft at least get yourself Yorvit Torrealba late in the game.

I also think that while the Cleveland Indians say Carlos Santana will catch all the time that Lou Marson makes a great end game or even reserve pick whether you own Santana or not. Marson can hit a little himself and if Santana has to play first base or DH for either health or lineup reasons you have a nice option.

Sadly for those who rostered Salvador Perez in early drafts, after knee surgery Perez will be out a minimum of two months, more likely a full three months. Temporarily that makes Brayan Pena a starting catcher in AL only leagues and even (as I suggested before) makes Max Ramirez assuming he makes the Royals opening day roster at least a consideration in deep leagues – especially if you own Perez and will have him coming back.

In auction leagues this makes a nice draft day play – even more so in keeper leagues. Your opponents will not be thinking about Perez so you should be able to get him for a buck or two and then replace him with Pena if not drafted or Ramirez if there is not a better option.

Here is another play for you to catch in AL only leagues (or very deep mixed leagues).  You should be able to get Jarrod Saltalamacchia for much less than his scrabble value. Salty has power and this should be the year he steps up his game to solidify his position with the Red Sox. If not Ryan Lavarnway will be just a short ride away at AAA Pawtucket. BUT don’t draft the slugging Lavarnway as Saltalamacchia’s backup. That catcher would be Kelly Shoppach who is a decent run producing catcher albeit one with a poor batting average. But you can get Shoppach for a buck and then get Lavarnway in the reserves or minor league portion of your draft and have the Fenway Park home runs by catchers sewn up for a very reasonable single digit price.

Last Updated on Monday, 19 March 2012 09:11
 
H2H Points League Draft PDF Print E-mail
Captain's Log
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Monday, 12 March 2012 18:29

Fantasy baseball leagues come in all shapes and sizes   - and from lots of different sources. For me there are my two “home” keeper leagues, one dual league keeper league, the industry leagues – for me LABR AL, and then whatever high stakes leagues (now only NFBC) that the bank and my schedule will allow.

This one came out of left field – both literally and figuratively as it is a twelve team, mixed, redraft, H2H points league that my friend John Duckworth had formed last year with several other fantasy football players. They were all veterans of the FFPC and decided to have some fun with baseball with each team putting in $150 so the winner would have a totally paid entry for the FFPC main event in September.

So the lure worked and I signed on to help John (aka The Yellow Line is Unofficial) win an FFPC entry we would split next fall in Las Vegas.

Now H2H is not my usual league – complicated even more by it being a weekly points matchup and not based on winning the standard roto categories. BUT who can resist a challenge with my FF buddies?

So I discussed the format with Todd – heavily weighted to pitching, especially starting pitching as we will start six SP and only two RP. A few immediate candidates for later roster spots came to mind – Daniel Bard, Neftali Feliz, and Chris Sale, all of whom would be listed as RP from last year but would be starting. Except for the very best closers, most starters would score as many points Especially in two start weeks when you would want to deploy them.

I wasn’t sure how savvy the league mates were but figured after the tremendous season Justin Verlander had last year (where on this system he outscored the best hitters by two hundred points) he was sure to go high and there might be several starters drafted in the first round.

John and I ended up with the second pick in the first round, so my plan was pretty clear – take Roy Halladay if he was available or start the hitters with Albert Pujols if Chef Paul took Doc.

Well Paul took Pujols so we started with Halladay. My plan down that path was to take the best hitter and the best pitcher on the 2/3 turn unless the pitcher run had been more vigorous and they had left me two first round hitters. However they only took three more starters – Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, and Cliff Lee – so we took Mark Teixeira, the last of the top first baseman at the end of the second round and when Paul went hitter/hitter on the turn were delighted to roster Dan Haren, giving us two of the top five starters for this league’s scoring.

At the end of the fourth round it was time to get the best hitters available and we selected Brandon Phillips. In the fifth round I was interested in Michael Cuddyer but Duck wisely suggested that he thought this group would leave him for a while and was more likely to take Shane Victorino in coming picks. So we took the Flying Hawaiian at the top of the fifth.

If you are wondering what happened with the pitchers, here is the recap

Four were drafted in the first as noted earlier

Only three (Felix Hernandez, CC Sabathia, and Zack Greinke) were taken in the second

After we took Haren in the third, Jered Weaver, David Price, and Tim Lincecum went in the third

In the fourth more attention was paid to them as James Shields, Yovanni Gallardo, Jon Lester, Ian Kennedy, and Matt Cain all came off the board.

The fifth round saw eight drafted and the sixth before our pick saw seven more go.

The only unusual part of this was that the team behind us (#3) had taken five straight pitchers (Verlander, Greinke, Weaver, Kennedy, and Wainwright).  The “Sportsbetting Slappers” would go on to take pitchers with their first nine picks which definitely skewed the picks for those who thought they could wait on their first pitchers. Their offense is predictably below average but it will be interesting to see how many weeks they can win with the former “backwards” draft approach.

In round 6 we took Michael Young as the third base pool had captured many targets - most of who are projected to score twenty to thirty fewer points less than Young. And John was right; Cuddyer was there for us in the seventh, by now the top hitter left on the boards.

In the 8th round I drafted Cory Luebke, a pitcher unfamiliar to John, but a strong play because along with the favorable Home Park and good K/9, Luebke has dual eligibility as RP/SP. We got our catcher on the turn – not that in a twelve team league playing one catcher there was a need to rush, but by that time Miguel Montero was a strong play.

Here is the lineup for the team as drafted (round #) along with our ten reserves – as you would suspect in this kind of a points league skewed towards pitching candidates.

C – Miguel Montero (9)

1B – Mark Teixeira (2)

2B – Brandon Phillips (4)

3B – Michael Young (6)

SS – Marco Scutaro (12)

OF – Victorino (5), Cuddyer (7), and Carlos Beltran (10)

UT – Carlos Lee (14) and Corey Hart (17)

Reserves – Brennan Boesch (18), Derek Jeter (22), Angel Pagan (23), and Brent Morel (27)

SP – Halladay (1), Haren (3), Luebke (8), Jaime Garcia (11), Brandon McCarthy (15) and Matt Harrison (19)

RP – Mariano Rivera (13) and Daniel Bard (16)

Reserves – Henderson Alvarez (20), Juan Nicasio (21), Jarrod Parker (24), Trevor Bauer (25), Luis Mendoza (26…also RP), and Danny Hultzen (28).

Obviously Bauer and Hultzen were pure shots since we don’t know at this point (draft time) whether they will break with the big clubs, but they both had a lot more upside than the starters available at that point who will still be available if we need to FAAB them.

How many of you play in H2H points leagues? Let’s compare notes or questions, here or on the message boards and win lots of leagues.

Last Updated on Tuesday, 13 March 2012 09:57
 
The Captain's AL LABR Squad PDF Print E-mail
Captain's Log
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Sunday, 04 March 2012 12:02

Trying to get the best auction team is tough in any venue – trying to do it against eleven of the best fantasy baseball analysts and writers is work.

So as much fun as it was to see a room full of friends from the industry, once auctioneer Don Drooker opened the bidding in Saturday’s AL LABR auction it was time to buckle up and see if my plan could be put into play.

And of course you know that’s not easy when your competitors have the same goal so my idea was to avoid the top level of spending – high $30s into the low $40s for the very best hitters; high $20s and low $30s for the best starting pitchers – and try for a team of players who would for the most part contribute double digit numbers in home runs and stolen bases, hoping to arrive with 200+ home runs and 150+ stolen bases which would have been near the top in those categories in 2011.

So while I put in bids on Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Justin Verlander et al, I was trying to seem competitive with those bids but not landing them at what I perceived to be the winning bid range. And for the most part the prices did approach what I thought – maybe slightly less some of the top players, but balanced off by higher prices for many of the tier two hitters and pitchers.

But let’s look at the prices I paid and see how I came out. My other goal is to get as many at bats as possible from the hitters because the teams that spend several thirty dollar bills on some players would find it hard to fill out their lineup with regular starting players.

The first player I landed was Toronto third baseman Brett Lawrie at $28 – maybe slightly more than the twenty five I had hoped but you have to make some quick decisions – and if I didn’t land Lawrie there (who I think has a floor at 20/20 with considerable upside), would I for sure be able to get Eric Hosmer the best first baseman left? Anyway Lawrie put me off to a good start on the double//double club.

The first pitcher I bought – and second player – was Angels closer Jordan Walden at $16. I thought, correctly as it turned out that some of the closers in the tier 1B (below Mariano Rivera) might go for slightly more, so get what you can. Rivera went in the twenties and several of the others went for around eighteen, so I was right there. I would try later to get one for a little less.

After the first hour I was one of three teams that had not spent over $100 and while I wished I was alone there I should be able to land several players who fit the plan. First was Adam Jones and at $23 I might have overpaid but not by more than a dollar or two and 24/11 would be fine.

I added both Matt Joyce and Dustin Ackley at $19 – I am a little higher on Ackley than most but as a 15/15 or close middle infielder I was happy to have him. I had wanted to get both Ackley and Jason Kipnis but that turned out to be a pipe dream. In fact it was tough to land one of the second tier shortstops early so I waited until later when I could get Alcides Escobar and his twenty plus bags for a reasonable $13.

If you want to see all the LABR results and decide for yourself who has the best team, I will leave a link for the Google spreadsheet that the Sirius/XM crew put up in real time. Sunday’s NL auction will be up by the time you read this on Monday.

Even the second and third tiers of starting pitching were running high, so I was happy later in the auction to start my staff with a $14 Jeremy Hellickson. I added a $13 Daniel Bard soon after that and think they will make a fine pair of starters to anchor what I presume will be a seven starter/two closer staff.

Here is my team with prices

C – Alex Avila (17) & Josh Donaldson (3)

CI – Mike Carp (12), Lawrie (28), & Casey Kotchman (6)

MI – Ackley (19), A. Escobar (13), & Trevor Plouffe (5)

OF – Jones (23), Joyce (19), Francoeur (17), Alejandro De Aza (15), & Andy Dirks (4)

UT – Ryan Sweeney (4)

Obviously Donaldson is a tricky cheap second catcher play but if he can hold the job at third base for Oakland that will be a bargain. If not I will grab a backup in the reserve rounds or a minor leaguer I think will come up (there are two). Plouffe is the only playing time question but reports are the Twins are going to get him plenty of at bats in the outfield and he was the best I could roster late in the auction. We don’t know how long Carl Crawford is out giving Sweeney full time at bats before he reverts to a share with Cody Ross but at least it is at the UT slot. Even with minimal playing time for those three, I came in with a projected 198 home runs and 170 stolen bases, so I am fine with that.

On the pitching side I am very happy with this group:

SP – Hellickson (14), Bard (13), Matt Harrison (6), Jarrod Parker (6), Dustin McGowan (1), hopefully Alfredo Aceves (2) and I took a shot with my last SP slot rostering Seattle’s Danny Hultzen for $4 and hoping the arrival is sooner than later

Closers – Walden (16) and Kyle Farnsworth (13)

I was about the third team to complete my roster but it doesn’t give you much time to relax before the reserve draft because you must mark off all the players drafted, so a quick trip for a soda and trip to the bathroom and I returned to watch so many hoped for targets get taken as the last players for the rest of the room’s rosters.

There is a draw for an Ace and then the reserve serpentine draft goes clockwise – I was eleventh with Nate Ravitz the only team to pick after me in the first round. Amazing that with all the crappy catchers drafted and someone drafting minor leaguer Ryan Lavarnway during the auction that the first ten picks would still leave me Kelly Shoppach, but I was very happy to add him and give myself Donaldson insurance.

After Nate’s picks I was happy to get the Royals’ Mike Montgomery in the second round.  In the third/fourth turn I rostered Seattle 3B Alex Liddi and Royals potential SP Luis Mendoza. And I was very happy (Brad Evans from Yahoo wasn’t) to pair Liddi with my fifth round selection of another young Mariner third baseman, Vinny Catricala. If Chone Figgins can’t improve on last year’s BA/OBA one of these power hitters may get an early opportunity (or if the Mariners used Figgins in center field for the first month while Franklin Gutierrez is out). My last pick being a fellow crafty lefty was Detroit rookie Drew Smyly who is still in the competition for the Tigers’ fifth starter. I think those picks supported my roster very well. I would have liked to find an outfielder for Sweeney insurance but those were well picked over.

So we go to battle soon and I will report on this LABR team all year with trade discussions and decisions and FAAB additions and of course the standings as I try and capture another flag for the Mastersball staff. You can start here

Last Updated on Monday, 05 March 2012 10:34
 
Updates to Average Draft Positions PDF Print E-mail
Captain's Log
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Monday, 27 February 2012 00:11

Well with Ryan Braun’s suspension set aside the top of any draft has just shifted some.

Assuming drafters aren’t holding unreasonable hate for Braun, he should easily enter the conversation for where to draft him anywhere from the first pick down to the fourth pick. Let’s look at those questions:

1st Pick – has now become even more spread out – some will say Albert Pujols but while he does offer a few more runs and RBI and maybe 12-15 more home runs, he will be short that same number of stolen bases, while both Braun and Pujols are projected to have about the same batting average. Others will say that Matt Kemp is a lock to go 30/30 and the upside that he might reach his lofty goal of 50/50 makes him a clear choice. I like the excitement there but think we need to temper the expectations for Kemp because his batting average is sure to regress to the .290 range at best and could go lower. Also remember that unless Andre Ethier makes a huge comeback there isn’t much in the Dodgers’ lineup this year to protect Kemp so he could see a lot of intentional passes.

2nd Pick – Obviously many drafters will take one of the two left while several other drafters claim that Miguel Cabrera should be in the conversation because of his impending qualification at third base. I think that is flawed thinking. First of all on draft day you can only put him at first base and you still have to draft a third baseman. Secondly while Jim Leyland can say all he wants that Miggy is his guy for the hot corner, he will have to watch twenty plus spring training games with Cabrera over at third and then even if the plan holds to opening day will have to hold that though through the first two weeks of the season. Should the Tiger pitchers not be successful in talking some sense into Leyland, there is also the real possibility that he pressure to perform adequately in the field might affect Cabrera’s offense. Especially when there is no real need to have everyone live through this as Cabrera and Prince Fielder could easily trade off at first base and designated hitter.

3rd pick – Is then a choice between the two left and 4th pick is the last of Pujols, Braun, Cabrera, and Kemp.

In Todd’s draft on Friday night the picks went

  1. Pujols
  2. Cabrera
  3. Braun
  4. Kemp

In three other NFBC drafts that started on Thursday/Friday, Braun went at 1.04, 1.09, and 1.09.

In my draft on Sunday night the order was

  1. Pujols
  2. Cabrera
  3. Tulowitzki
  4. Votto
  5. Sandoval
  6. Braun

But this draft was the twenty team Rotoman’s Regular draft with Yahoo lineups.

Cleveland Indians closer Chris Perez strained an oblique muscle while throwing Saturday and will be out 4-6 weeks. There haven’t been any announcements by Manny Acta yet, but the favorite to slide into the closers role would be Vinnie Pestano, a 27 year old RHP who was excellent in his rookie season last year, striking out 84 batters in 62 innings.

In another spring practice in Arizona, Oakland Athletics’ third baseman Scott Sizemore suffered a bad ankle sprain and is questionable to play in Oakland’s first game which will be against the Seattle Mariners as the two AL West teams play the first two games of the 2012 season in Japan on Wednesday, March 28 and Thursday, March 29. The Athletics will likely use one of their utility infielders there until Sizemore is able to play again but barring a breakout game in Japan whoever plays in those two games won’t have an impact even in AL only leagues.

Two Atlanta Braves' starting pitchers have created more changes in recent drafts. With the news that he likely won’t make his first start in 2012 until early May, Tim Hudson has gone from an average spot of 183rd to 274th on Friday night.

His mate Tommy Hanson with concerns about the change in his throwing motion and missing the first few days of spring training throwing after a car accident moved him from an average of 122nd down to 150th on Friday night.

Last Updated on Monday, 27 February 2012 09:38
 
Questionable or Probable...or Who Knows? PDF Print E-mail
Captain's Log
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Sunday, 19 February 2012 14:09

I see a lot of players being drafted in early leagues without much regard for their injury status. We know several players won’t be ready for Opening Day – Phillies 1B Ryan Howard for example who is expected to all of April and perhaps part of May as he recovers from Achilles surgery. So I thought I would update the status of many who would be fantasy starters.

There are a couple of players who will not play at all in 2012

  • John Lackey, Boston – Tommy John surgery
  • Victor Martinez, Detroit – micro fracture surgery on his left knee and still facing ACL surgery

And few more who have undergone surgery that won’t play until later this year, if then

  • Brett Anderson, Oakland – scheduled to throw off a mound for the first time on Monday, Anderson might appear in August of this year at the earliest
  • Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston – threw his first bullpen last week coming back from TJS and currently viewed as possible for July this year
  • Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland – another pitcher who underwent TJS and is likely out for most if not all of 2012
  • Rubby De La Rosa, LA Dodgers – had TJS last August and while already doing long toss is not expected until late 2012 at the earliest
  • Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado – while considered “ahead of schedule” in recovering from  elbow surgery is still not expected until June of this season
  • Ryan Kalish, Boston – recovering from Labrum surgery in November might be ready in May or June
  • Allen Craig, St. Louis – had surgery on his knee in November and is likely to miss at least the first month of the season

Then there are still several players who are questionable for Opening Day, so make sure you have contingency plans if you are counting on any of them to be in your lineup:

Reports on the last group are all over the map, so watch news from spring training if they are on your keeper league teams or you intend to draft them before the season starts.

Last Updated on Monday, 20 February 2012 10:57
 
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