Mastersball, fantasy baseball, scouting, analysis, projections

So you are thinking, "Last Minute Moves, Part 1, does that mean there will be a "Last Minute Moves, Part 2?" or this like the first album of the Traveling Wilburys, The Traveling Wilburys, Volume 2 and the joke is there never was a part one.

Last time I wrote about the Strat-O-Matic Online Experts (SOMBOE) League, it was a third of the way into the season and my San Francisco ATT-titude were rocking, having won nine games of ten, leading everything with the best record, best pitching, and best hitting.

It is Week 20, and at this point, well, all bets are off in your league.  

"Why?" you might ask?  

Because, if there are points available, especially depending upon how your roster is distributed, you have a couple of more weeks to adjust and try to position yourself. That is because once September 1 rolls around, roster expansion will kill at-bats and innings pitched if your players are not on contenders.  

Now, I am not saying dump Billy Butler, but, though the KC first baseman is having a good year, depending upon what your team needs, it makes him expendable.

So, if a redraft league, if you have Butler and are fairly stable in average, runs, RBI, and homers, that means a team needing some offensive push might be willing to swap their surplus for him.

For, though Butler is indeed having a fine year, the Royals are going nowhere, and will shut him down if necessary, not to mention give some of their other youngsters a chance to show what they might be able to achieve at the major league level. Again, this does not suggest Butler will be benched, but, he might be rested, and even if that only means one at-bat a game, at this point he would lose 30 plate appearances from September 1 through the end of the season, and that could indeed make a huge difference.

On the flip, acquiring a pitcher like Kevin Slowey, who has been red-hot of late might help pick up the whiffs or innings, or even a couple of extra wins that would make a difference, for the Twins are in the hunt, and all of their everyday players, from Danny Valencia to Delmon Young will play every day until the Twins clinch, or are knocked out. And, if you remember correctly, that did not happen last year till game 163, and this season looks to be just as tight.

Similarly, if you own guys like Butler or Slowey in keeper leagues, now is the time to take advantage of those leading teams, giving them the players they need--and of course that means offering around to all the leading teams, for surely you don't want to drop a title on anyone--for players that will help you next season.

It means an Arod, in an AL format at $40 is expendable for he likely won't be worth freezing next season, while Slowey, coming off an injury at likely a low price, and players like him will help build a cheap core of keepers for you next year.

And, if you have that, then buying Arod back to complement Slowey and even a cheap Daric Barton for $40 gives the backbone you would need to compete seriously.

For me, it is tough when my teams don't compete at the end of the season, to be sure, but, especially in keeper leagues, I have almost as much fun rebuilding and trying to set myself up for the coming season, as I do trying to figure out how to put away my opponents during the stretch run.

Knowing there is next year out there helps me anticipate and plan, while being in the here-now reminds that this is the time to be decisive and pull the trigger.

Don't be caught short.

It seems pretty clear to me in both Tout Wars and LABR, that my team is not going to win this year.

As my partner Diane noted, "well, you cannot win every year," and she is right. But, that does not mean I don't want to do the best I can, and in Tout, particularly, where the rules now suggest two consecutive bad years with a cumulative point total under specific thresholds mean being bumped.

Last year I managed 93.5, so I am surely in the clear for next year, but at 47 points in the league at writing, I want to push my team, and the area I can pick some points is saves, where ten conversions would be worth a handful anyway.

So, I swapped Chone Figgins to Matthew Berry for Chris Perez, giving me a pair of closers, and then to hedge my speed bets, as I am fourth in swipes, I traded Mike Napoli to Rick Wolf and Glenn Colton for Corey Patterson and  Scott Downs.

As it is, I managed to cop Lance Berkman from the FAAB pile and plugged him into Napoli's spot at the corner, and hopefully this will bag me ten points, allowing me to finish in the mid-50's, not necessarily where I want to be, but, well, at this point it is all about just that: the points. Still, despite doubling my points since May, realistically, the best I can hope for is maybe a 10th place finish.

In LABR I was derelict in pop a couple of months ago, so I traded the same Colton-Wolf connection CC Sabathia and Ian Kinsler for Miguel Cabrera and Alfredo Simon. In LABR I had--and still have pretty good pitching, thanks largely to grabbing Trevor Cahill--and though my hitting has improved, I am still tied for last in dingers and it is unlikely I will finish in that category with more than two points.

So, Rick and Glenn and I did two unprecedented things in the leagues.

First, we swapped in both leagues in the same week, and then, in LABR, we traded the principles back, with me getting Sabathia back (along with Jonathan Papelbon) for Cabrera (along with the same Alfred Simon).

Because I can pick up some more pitching points in the league, and as it stands, Colton-Wolf and I are duking it out for seventh place, but either of us--with a burst--could move up among the top three, though again winning will be tough.

I do like trading with Rick and Glenn because they will broker a pretty fair deal, but, I also really like trading with and playing against owners who are not happy finishing at the bottom, and want to be competitive, and want to try and finish the best they can no matter what.

Because that is how I want to play. I hope you do too.

Back when my late pal Cathy Hedgecock and I were becoming close, she invited me, after a date, to come into her apartment, and asked, "do you want to play scrabble?"

A Scrabble junkie, my answer was an emphatic, "yes."

We had a close game, but Cathy beat me that first time, by a few points, and we both scored in the 300's. She asked, hopefully, "do you want to play again?" and I said, again, "yes."

Cathy was surprised, and asked "really?"

"Sure," I responded, "why?"

Cathy told me she had one boyfriend who taught her how to play racquetball, and after a few weeks she could beat him, so then he refused to play with her any more. Then, another boyfriend taught her how to play the game "Go," and again, after a while she could beat him, and again, the boyfriend would not play with her. Finally, a third boyfriend taught her how to play chess, and well, you guessed it; after a few months she was better and that was that for the playing the game.

So, she was surprised I was good with her playing a better game. My response, though, was "if I play against people who are better than I, it should elevate my game, no?"

Same with battling the likes of Rick and Glenn, guys like Jason Grey, or even the guys in my Bloomberg League (I am fourth) or the NFBC who are beating me, for winning, let alone leading either, is an accomplishment.

That is indeed, how we improve.

By the way, I beat Cathy a second Scrabble game that night, and in the third rubber match, I had a lead, but Cathy went out on me, and with the points I had in my rack, she beat me in the two out of three. 

I had a lot of fun in LABR and Tout over the last hour, setting up my bids for the treasure trove of free agents who migrated to the AL over the past week.

I had the second most bucks in each--$82 in LABR, and $77 in Tout--so that made my decison making a little easier.

And, in Tout I stood to make the most ground by trying to nab Matt Capps as since I am second to last in saves, a closer can help me pick up another five to six points in that category alone as I do have Brian Fuentes, so the double closr thing would be a huge boost.

Then, of course the decision was between Lance Berkman and Jorge Cantu, both of whom will be starting (especially since the Rangers again sent Chris Davis packing). I can pick up some hitting points in Tout for sure, but where I need the most help is in average, and well, neither of these guys will make the difference there where I need at least a seven point bump in average simply to move out of last.

But, the homers and RBI and runs could help in any format, but the way I really focused was on who I thought would help the most as opposed to who was the best player.

True, going for the best player is a good strategy because at worst you have a surplus, and that means you can try to trade for what you still need.

Still, in Tout I looked at what Rob Leibowitz, who had the most bucks, to see what he needed, and low and behold, saves would also be good for Rob's team. So, may surely cop Capps, but, that leaves me probably with Berkman, whom I think will do well during a short NYC stint with a short right field shot.

Or, it could leave me with Cantu in case something goofy happens, and should that be the path, then I would have the hitting surplus to trade from.

In LABR, where Jason Grey has the most money, the same basic tenet holds true except that I am in pretty good save shape with both Fuentes and Alfred Simon, I hope to grab either Berkman or Cantu.

Not to mention I put a final bid in for both leagues to try and sneak Christian Guzman by, but I seriously doubt I will land him.

The thing is, there were two things I did to try and make this work. One was try to be disciplined with my FAAB spending over the season so that I could be in position to get a good player now. The second was to play for what I need, but also take what I can get knowing I still have options for trading and dealing.

And, the reality is that process is a good one no matter what the format. The only catch is AL or NL only.

The trade deadline is always a fun time of the year in the fantasy universe.

The deadline marks a few things. To start with, it is really the second milepost--the first being Memorial Day--of the season. If one's position Memorial Day indicates whether or not the team you drafted is a contender, and your team is still within range--and that means maybe 10-15 points off the lead by the All Star Break--then the trade deadline is when an owner has to go for the throat.

For there is no coasting in fantasy ball, or in any sport for that matter. That is because if you are in a competition, you can never give a break to your opponent if you are serious about winning. Any owner who has had a fantasy lead of 15 points in May knows this to be true, for if you are in that position, and your team starts to slump, by the time you try to pull out of a free fall, it is too late.

Now assuming you are still in the hunt, this is the time to grab a Yunel Escobar or Dan Haren and try to put away your competition, at least in AL and NL formats (naturally, the trade deadline does not impact mixed formats). But, it can also mean a chance, if you still need those fifteen or so points, to grab a marquee player and pick up what you need, or simply play spoiler and finish the best you can.

So, if you indeed have the money to grab Haren, do it, whether you need the pitching help or not. For, bagging a star on top of your starting 23, that is a tremendous boost. If you need pitching Haren will certainly help and you need not compromise any hitting to get him.

If you don't need the pitching, but need offensive help, and extra pitcher makes the possibilities of a trade possible. And, that means a trade for either an impact bat, or for possibly a couple of everyday bats to boost your offense. For, in a deep league two everyday sticks are huge. In other words, a Haren for say Cliff Pennington and Curtis Granderson (note, you may have to toss something else in with Haren, but like a scrub) adds some pop, some speed, and the chance for runs and RBI.

Note too that if you are out of the hunt, but have the resources to grab a Haren, keeping the other teams from having him, and trading makes the end game of the season fun. For the offensive part of fantasy ball is grabbing the best possible players and lineups, and the defenisve part is keeping your opponents from getting those same players.

Even if you are out of the hunt, there are things you can do to keep the season lively--and the assumption here is that you are in a redraft league--such as offer FAAB money you have remaining to the teams jockeying to obtain a Haren, getting an everyday player, or filling a hole accordingly.

Finally, if you are in a keeper league, all of the above applies plus some. Haren could be grabbbed and held for next season. Or traded for one of the many great young prospects arriving on the scene. For example, working a deal that might include a player like Matt Wieters--a potential star on the verge of establishing himself--and set a position on your squad for many years to come.

Indeed I always think in fantasy games there are more than one way to skin a cat. For, there are stats and teams and rosters, and that means there is always an angle.

And, the trade deadline adds to the variable, and gives yet another opportunity to play the game, tweak your roster--which is always fun--and build the winner we all strive for.

I got a trade offer in LABR this week from Jason Grey that was perfect, in that I was thinking about this column, and, as it is eponymously   titled, "Tactics."

As long as we are enjoying the break, I wanted to write some about my other Strat-O-Matic league, The MWStrat League.

If you used to read my Tumbling Dice column, I wrote often about that league. And, if you really like games, especially baseball strategy games, you owe it to yourself to play the original Strat-O-Matic game.

I used to play with dice--and you still can--but we play the MWStrat with the computer game, but it is just about the same and as much fun.

My league is a perennial keeper league where we can freeze 29 players plus five uncarded (if players are out for a season, they may not have a card the following year, like Kelly Johnson following his first year) players that can be protected.

We have 30 teams in the league, and are broken down by MLB ballpark and the relative divisions. In fact we base our schedule, including inter-league play, on the major league schedule for the year.

There are usage restrictions: we can use a player 20% over his at-bats/innings pitched from the previous season, so no injuries, as they are accounted for.

Misuse of a player causes demerits, and demerits can cost you a spot in the coming year's free agent draft, and free agent picks are among the most coveted things there are.

For example, a few years ago I traded five players for the rights to the #1 overall pick, and copped Hanley Ramirez and Carlos Ruiz in exchange (I traded Chris Capuano off his 19 wins, JJ Hardy, and the rights to Ryan Doumitt, among others).

The year before I got Hardy, and traded for another first round pick, landing Ryan Zimmerman, meaning the left side of my infield for the next bunch of years is solid.

Well, winning the MWStrat League is tough. Jason Grey plays in it. So does Matt Beagle. And JP Kastner and Brendan Roberts. And Fantasylander Jed Latkin. Along with Dean Peterson and Al Koman, our commissioner. And, there are some very good players in the league too, aside from the experts you know.  

I have made the playoffs just twice, but only once with my Berkeley Liberators.

I thought I had a good enough team going into this year, but just like in baseball on the diamond, it is very hard to win Strat-O-Matic without having a strong bench. And, though my starting staff going in--Ubaldo Jimenez, Wandy Rodriguez, Kevin Correia, and Jonathan Sanchez, as the top four--along with a strong pen were great.

But, on the bench, and in the corners of my outfield--where Chris Duncan, Lance Nix, and Bill Hall are the guys--I don't think I have the horses.

In fact I have already traded Wandy and Jermaine Dye for a #1 next year along with Andruw Jones and Vicente Padilla which is part of why I am weak at the corners of my outfield.

And, today I swapped Ruiz and Tyler Clippard for a first and fourth round pick next year.

Which means now I have three first round picks, and a second next year as I write.

It also means I have those picks in a season when Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, Buster Posey, Jaime Garcia, Carlos Santana, Ike Davis, and a wad of other guys who are great rookie prospects will have first time cards, so that is, I have decided the year to rebuild.

Because if I can walk away with just a couple of players like those mentioned above, I will have a solid team for a number of years at the core.

Now ironically, my Berkeley team has been playing well of late, and though a long shot, could get a playoff slot. Which makes it all the sweeter. Not that I am banking on the slot, let alone winnings. But, this is baseball, and you do never know.

As it is, if I can get one more fourth first round pick, I will be happy. And, if my team keeps winning, that will be all the better.

(The punch line being, if you are in such a league, this is a great year to rebuild, so look carefully at your roster and deal as you must.)

Here we are mid-season, the time of the year when one has to realistically look at his/her team and assess if you can finish in the money or not.

Ok, so this column will not be the "cat's nightwear" for everyone, but, if you love to play Strat-O-Matic, or other online salary cap games, this might just be you.