Mastersball

It’s official. The 2011 regular season has come to an end and with it so have many a fantasy league. Some owners are basking in the glow of a championship while others are left to wonder what went wrong.

The same could certainly be said of the National League playoff race. While the race was certainly very exciting and kept baseball fans on the edge of their seats, it also was the cause of much agita. As late as August 25, the Atlanta Braves had a comfortable nine and one half game lead on the San Francisco Giants for the wild card race. The St. Louis Cardinals weren’t even in the discussion at that point as they were a game behind the Giants. Entering September Atlanta was still eight and a half games behind the Braves even though they had leapfrogged San Francisco. And so the race was on.

When the end came, it was a historic moment as far as collapses go not only for the Braves in the National League but also for the Boston Red Sox in the American League. What we witnessed on the final day in both leagues was unparalleled in baseball history and kudos go to both the Cardinals and Tampa Bay Rays for not giving up and finally making it into the playoffs at the last possible moment.

Which now brings us to the second season of 2011 – the playoffs. The heroics of the Cardinals have earned them the uncoveted distinction of having to face the Philadelphia Phillies - who have won the NL East five years in a row – in the first round of the playoffs. To make matters just that much worse, St. Louis will be facing a Phillies starting rotation that has been set up nicely for the postseason.

Philadelphia leads off with Roy Halladay followed by Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. Certainly a tough mountain for any opposing team to scale. St. Louis counters with Kyle Lohse, Chris Carpenter, and Jaime Garcia. On the surface it would seem St. Louis is behind the eight ball. However, the Cards have a three win against one loss record this season against the Philadelphia troika. On the Cardinals side, Lohse, Carpenter, and Garcia are a combined three wins and one loss against the Phils with a 1.00 ERA.

On the offensive side, St. Louis handily outscored Philadelphia on the season 762-713. In head to head play the Cardinals outscored the Phillies 34-32 and outhit them .275-.233. St. Louis hit seven balls out of the park against Philadelphia’s five. And the best player on either team – Albert Pujols – didn’t have a typical Pujols season.

In spite of this, the smart play seems to be to put your money on the Phillies to vanquish the Cardinals. However, I am not going with the smart play. In my mind, St. Louis played the Phils too tough this year and with what they did just to get into the playoffs fate certainly seems to be on their side. I am going with the Cardinals to pull the upset and for the magic of this special season to continue.

In the other NL playoff series, the Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Milwaukee Brewers. Both the Brewers and D’Backs won their divisions easily by six and eight games respectively. The Brew Crew won 96 games while Arizona won 94. In the regular season Arizona edged Milwaukee four games to three in head to head play.

The Brewers and Diamondbacks were very close in a number of offensive categories throughout the year. Arizona had the edge in runs scored at 731-721 while Milwaukee had the edge in HR (185-172), BA (.261-.250), OBP (.325-.322) and SLG (.425-.413). Milwaukee also holds a similar slim advantage in most pitching categories. Even the bullpens are close with Milwaukee closer John Axford saving 46 games compared to Arizona’s J.J. Putz successfully closing out 45. While the two teams are close overall, it will be imperative for the Brewers to do well at home because they are the only playoff team with a losing road record.

The Brewers have set their rotation for the first three playoff games with Yovani Gallardo starting off followed by Zach Greinke and Shawn Marcum. Ian Kennedy will take the mound first for Arizona with Daniel Hudson likely to follow although Kirk Gibson hasn’t announced his rotation yet.

The 2011 Major League Baseball season has but a week’s worth of games remaining. The Philadelphia Phillies have clinched their fifth consecutive East Division title – the last four of which they compiled over 90 wins. In fact, the Phils have the best record in all of baseball and are the only team with a realistic shot at hitting the century mark in victories. The Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks are the odds on favorites to win the Central and Western Divisions respectively as they are both up by five and one half games. The only race still in question in the NL is the Wild Card where the Atlanta Braves are clinging to a two and one half game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals. Atlanta has lost six of their last ten while the Cards have won eight of ten.

So the regular season drama is winding down and that leaves us with the National League playoffs and, eventually the World Series. But with football season entering its third week I’m going to bypass that, go against the grain and fast forward to one of the individual awards that MLB doesn’t announce until after the World Series winner has been determined.

Let’s look at the Cy Young Award. The Phillies have a trio of starting pitchers in Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay, and Cole Hamels who will all get votes. And all of them are worthy of the votes they will garner.

Cliff Lee has gone 16-8 with a 1.03 WHIP and 2.38 ERA in 226 2/3 innings. He has better than a strikeout per inning with 232 on the year. Roy Halladay has had a typical Doc year with a 1.05 WHIP and 2.41 ERA in 227 2/3 innings with 217 strikeouts. He bested Lee in the win/loss department with 18 victories against six losses. Cole Hamels has an impressive 0.98 WHIP with a 2.80 ERA and 186 strikeouts in 206 innings although his record is only 14-9.

Over on the west coast, the San Francisco Giants have two worthy candidates as well in Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. In 212 innings The Freak has put up numbers of 1.19/2.59/217. Likewise, Cain has good numbers with 1.08/2.86/173. However, both have been victimized by the Giants’ poor offense and have only managed 13-13 and 12-10 records respectively.

Moving down the coast a bit is the Los Angeles Dodgers and Clayton Kershaw – who many consider the favorite to win the NL version of the Cy Young. And Kershaw has had a Cy Young-esque year with a 0.99 WHIP, 2.27 ERA and 242 strikeouts in 226 innings to go along with his 20-5 record. Certainly a very impressive season by anyone’s standards.

As big and successful a season that all of these hurlers have had, none of them would get my vote. That is, if I had one to give. My vote would go to Ian Kennedy of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Kennedy has amassed 216 innings pitched this season – comparable to anyone else who would be considered for the award. In those innings he had a 1.08 WHIP and 2.88 ERA. The 26 year old has a very impressive 20-4 record and, in fact, was the first NL pitcher to 20 victories this year. He was no slouch in the strikeout department either with 194.

Arizona started out the season very roughly. They won their first game of the season April 1 but were not over the .500 mark again until May 25. Ironically, the first two times eclipsing the breakeven point were both against the Colorado Rockies in Colorado. After the May 25 game the Diamondbacks would not fall below .500 for the rest of the year. Both of those games were started by Ian Kennedy. He pitched well enough to win the first one allowing three runs in six innings. In the second game he went eight innings allowing one run for the victory.

After that May 25^th game, Arizona didn’t look back. They had climbed from a low of 15-22 (a .405 winning percentage), fourth place in the division, five and one half games back on May 13 – just a dozen days prior – to second place, two and one half games back and a .510 winning percentage at 25-24.

Kirk Gibson had his team taste first place for the first time in 2011 on May 29. The Giants and D’Backs see-sawed back and forth for a while before Arizona slipped into second place on June 25. They were as much as four and one half games out of first as late as July 20 before climbing back even with San Francisco on August 2. On August 10 Arizona took over sole possession of first place and has retained that spot since then. This from a team that some Las Vegas books had as 1200:1 underdogs to win their division!

A big part of the success of the Diamondbacks is directly attributable to Ian Kennedy. Nine of his twenty wins came after losses. After July 20 when Arizona was four and a half games out, Kennedy started 12 games and won 11 of them. In that stretch, Kennedy pitched to a 0.98 WHIP and 2.02 ERA with 81 strikeouts in 80 2/3 innings. Against division foe San Francisco, he is 2-0 in four starts with a 0.84 WHIP and 0.87 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 31 innings. On the year opponents are hitting .227 against him and with a BABIP of .281 he isn’t considered as just being lucky.

Diamondbacks pitchers have won the Cy Young award twice before – Randy Johnson in 2001 and Brandon Webb in 2006. How does Kennedy compare against them? In 2001 Randy Johnson was 21-6, a .778 winning percentage against Ian’s present .833 at 20-4. It can certainly be argued that Randy had the benefit of a much better offense than the 2011 version. Second to the Big Unit that year in the voting was teammate Curt Schilling with a 22-6 record and .786 winning percentage. Johnson had a better ERA than Kennedy’s while Schilling’s was a little higher. Randy had a WHIP just over 1.00 while Curt’s 1.07 was closer to the 1.08 of Ian. Where it was no contest was in strikeout totals with Johnson at 372 and Schilling at 293 to Kennedy’s 194.

Brandon Webb finished 2006 with a 16-8 record for a .667 winning percentage. His 1.13 WHIP was inferior to Kennedy’s as was his 3.10 ERA. Ian Kennedy also has a much better strikeout rate than Webb did – 8.08/9 vs. 6.81/9. The runner up for Cy Young that year was Trevor Hoffman with Chris Carpenter third.

Kennedy’s 2011 could even be considered with the likes of other winners of the past decade – Roy Halladay in 2010, Tim Lincecum in 2008 and 2009 and Jake Peavy in 2007. The most remarkable comparison would be Chris Carpenter in 2005 who was 21-5 for a .808 winning percentage, 1.05 WHIP, 2.83 ERA and 7.94 K/9.

Even taking the past comparisons into consideration, the thing that puts Ian Kennedy over the top for me is the team he is on. Again, this is a team with 1200:1 odds against it winning their own division and is now challenging for the second best record in the National League. You might argue they are in the weakest of the 3 NL divisions but they have still won 90 games – no small feat for any team. Clayton Kershaw might have better numbers but without him the Los Angeles Dodgers are still a bad team – just more bad. Without Ian Kennedy the Arizona Diamondbacks are nowhere near accomplishing what they are poised to accomplish and could very well be a bad team themselves. When Arizona fell back to four and a half games out on July 20 they could have cashed it in and no one would have blamed them. Everyone would have said they over achieved to that point. The Pittsburgh Pirates were still contenders at that time and they faded away. But Arizona didn’t fade away. Ian Kennedy put them on his shoulders and pitched them past the defending World Champion San Francisco Giants and on the verge of entering the history books as the Western Division champions.

It doesn’t seem like so long ago there was a bite in the air and teams were starting the marathon known as baseball’s regular season/2011 Version. At that time, many a fantasy owner was drunk with the prospects of how their team would dominate the competition and bring home a fantasy championship. It wasn’t long after drafts were finished that the smack started about who won their draft and how all the also rans should just surrender the title then and there.

Truth be told, however, rarely does the winner of the draft actually go on to hoist the trophy and bathe in the Yoo-Hoo as baseball reality plays havoc with fantasy baseball. Injuries have to be overcome and breakout players as well as underperformers need to be identified and added or subtracted from a roster soon enough to positively affect league standings. This is as true with Major League teams as it is with your fantasy team.

For both sides, the hopes and dreams of spring turned into the reality of the 162 game schedule. Some teams got off to a hot start while others faltered. The same applied to individual players. We moved into the start of summer and eventually into the dog days. Hot players and teams turned cold while those on the lower temperature settings heated up. The weather generally turned from cool to unbearably hot and is now moving back to comfortable days and brisk nights. All the while the fluidity of the early-season standings started to gel to the point we are at now.

The Philadelphia Phillies have the best record in the Majors with 92 victories against 48 losses and are well on the way to their fifth consecutive Eastern Division title. The remaining schedule has them playing three more games at the Milwaukee Brewers and three at the Houston Astros. They then head home for two against the Florida Marlins and four each against the St. Louis Cardinals and Washington Nationals before finishing the regular season with three game series at the New York Mets and Atlanta Braves. With 22 games to go and a ten game lead in the division over the Braves, the Phils should be a shoe in to best their 2010 record of 97-65 and are odds on favorites to eclipse the 100 win plateau.

Over in the Central Division, the Milwaukee Brewers have moved out to an eight game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Brew Crew have three more games at home against the Phillies and two games against the Colorado Rockies. They then hit the road for three games each at the Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs before finishing back home for three with the Florida Marlins and three with the Pittsburgh Pirates. With only 17 games left, Milwaukee has to hope for as many victories as possible to retain their very slight lead in the battle for the second place seed in the playoffs. Falling into the third or fourth best spot would not bode well for the Brewers as they are the only team in either the National or American League seemingly playoff bound to have a losing record on the road.

The National League West has the surprising Arizona Diamondbacks with a healthy seven and a half game lead over the defending world champion San Francisco Giants. Arizona finishes out the remainder of the schedule with three games at home against the San Diego Padres, three each at the Los Angeles Dodgers and Padres, then home again for three against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Giants, and Los Angeles Dodgers. With 18 games left, Arizona has a good shot to surpass their 90-win 2007 season.

The NL Wild Card race has the Atlanta Braves with a comfortable seven and a half game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals. The Braves have an important three-game series at the Cardinals which could decide the Wild Card winner. After that they are home to face the Florida Marlins and New York Mets for three games each then head to Florida for three more and the Washington Nationals for three. Atlanta then finishes up at home as they host the Phillies for three games.

The beginning of the 2011 draft season saw Philadelphia Phillies second baseman Chase Utley on the sidelines with a knee injury. Many fantasy owners were unwilling to take the chance on Chase with a top pick and so set their sights on either Brandon Phillips or Rickie Weeks as the top two rated second baggers. If neither of these could be had the next down the list for many was Dan Uggla.

Coming off a contract with the Florida Marlins for a year in which he hit .287 with a career high 33 HR, Uggla was due for a raise in pay in arbitration. The .287 BA couldn’t have come at a better time as it was seemingly an aberration compared to the .257 mark over his first four years with Florida. Certainly, many were pointing to 2010 as the proverbial contract year in trying to get a big raise and long-term contract from Florida. On the other hand, others were quick to say that he had hit .282 in his freshman year as a Marlin so he was certainly capable of hitting for average. The naysayers were quick to point out the 760 strikeouts in five seasons while the pro-Uggla camp responded with four consecutive seasons of 30+ HR. And so the point/counter-point went.

The Atlanta Braves obviously were believers as they made a trade for the homer-hitting second baseman. It didn’t hurt Uggla’s prospects that the Braves were near the bottom of the league in HR for the 2010 season or that they would be chasing the offensive powerhouse Philadelphia Phillies for the division title.

Right from the start there were those who thought Atlanta made a mistake. Armed with the knowledge that Uggla turned down a four year $48 million offer from his former team, they didn’t think the Braves would or should eclipse the Marlins’ offer. However, Atlanta took stock of their position and put their eggs in one basket by going all in for the ex-Marlin for a total of five years and $62 million.

Winter gave way to spring and players reported to camp. The Braves were eager to get going to show their fans what they would get from their marquee off-season acquisition. However, as things sometimes go, they didn’t go well for Atlanta and their new second baseman. Uggla played in 23 spring games that saw him get 66 at bats. He made the least of those chances with only 14 hits for a meager .212 average. Even worse, only one of those hits made it over the fence. Pro-rate that over a full season and Dan winds up with less than ten HR – a stat he was supposed to supply for his new team in a big way.

But that was only spring training and everyone knows that doesn’t mean anything. At least everyone not an Atlanta Braves fan. Management was telling everyone not to worry and that things would be different in the regular season as Dan became acclimated to his new team and surroundings. Spring training ended and teams headed north for the real games. Uggla was hopeful he would come around, Braves management was confident, and the fans were nervous.

Baseball in earnest started for Atlanta on March 31 and Dan proceeded to go hitless in four at bats with two strikeouts against the World Series favorite Washington Nationals. April came and he had one hit in four at bats in the first game of the month with that hit being a homerun – exactly what he was supposed to do. By the end of April he was batting an anemic .194 with five homeruns. Those five HR only yielded a total of nine RBI, however. There were also 21 strikeouts to go along with the bad BA.

By the end of May Uggla had gone in the wrong direction. His batting average was down to .178 and he only added two more HR and seven RBI in the month. Worse than that, Atlanta had now played division rival Philadelphia Phillies in six games and Uggla had two hits in 23 AB with no HR and only one RBI. What he did have were eight strikeouts. The pressure was getting to Dan and he admitted it: "When you're struggling when you come to the field, I don't care who you are, you're going to feel a little bit of pressure," Uggla said.

But, surely, June would be better – or would it. He went one for 16 at the plate his first five games with no RBI as his batting average sunk to .170. It was not a good start to the new month for the badly slumping infielder. The month wound up being an up and down affair as it saw him end with the same BA he started the month with. He also added five HR and 12 RBI to his totals. After three months, Uggla now had 12 HR and 28 RBI to go along with the .178 average.

Enter July and a new chance for redemption. It started off in the usual manner with only one hit in 15 at bats over four games as he saw his BA sink further to .173 for the season. Then came a July 5 game – the second of a four game series – at home against the Colorado Rockies. In the game Dan went two for two with a homerun and RBI. The next day he went two for three with another HR and two RBI. The back-to-back games with a HR seemed to be the catalyst Uggla needed to get the monkey off his back as he proceeded to play in 20 more games in the month and hit safely in all of them. The month ended with Dan accumulating eight HR and 19 RBI as he saw his average jump to .206 as he now was sporting a 22 game hitting streak.

August started and Uggla continued his hot hitting as he got at least one hit in another 11 games with his average rising to a lofty .232 with the 33 game hit streak. He finally saw the streak end on August 14 but has only gone hitless in four August games. The power continued as ten HR were added to his totals for the year and it is apparent that Dan is well on his way to salvaging the season. Over the first three months, Uggla hit .178 with 12 HR and 28 RBI. Over the last two he has hit .317 with 18 HR and 39 RBI.

"This is obviously the place that I want to spend the rest of my career," Uggla told the media. "This is a great organization and a great team. It's just a matter of time before I make the adjustment. There's no doubt in my mind that I'll make it."

The turnaround has been very fortuitous for the Atlanta Braves. They are still a good distance from the first place Philadelphia Phillies but are in total control of the 2011 NL Wild Card Race - a year they have seen the good the bad and the ugly from their high priced addition.

Having recently completed a three-part series on each National League team’s first half, I thought it would be interesting to go back and read over some of my own predictions for how certain players would fare for the year.

PICKS

Hunter Pence – I was pretty high on Pence finishing with .285/90/25/90/20 but he’ll have some work to do from here on out to attain all those numbers. We’re 100 games into the season and the outfielder has less than half those totals in homers and steals. He’s also on pace to come up short in runs scored and RBIs. On the positive side, Hunter is hitting .308 on the season, so he could surpass the .285 BA I envisioned. The trade to the Philadelphia Phillies may serve to accelerate things but it’s certainly not a lock.

Drew Stubbs – The projection on the Cincinnati centerfielder was for .256/98/25/78/33 and things look mixed as he’s on pace for .250/104/20/55/40. Drew’s BB% has decreased a tad with his strikeout rate increasing a bit. BABIP is up 12 points to .342 although SLG is below .400 at .390 for the first time in his two-plus years up in Cincinnati (.439 and .444).

Seth Smith – My original projection for Smith was 450 at-bats with a .275 BA, 20-plus homers and 80 RBIs. While he is on pace to get over 500 at-bats with a .289 BA, the rest doesn’t seem likely as he projects out to 12 homers and 65 RBIs.

Will Venable – This pick has pretty much been a bust as I was hoping for a possible 15/30 season. The 28-year old started off slowly and, at the time he was demoted to the Minors on May 23, was hitting only .224 with 11 steals but no home runs. Will was brought back up and is currently hitting near .250 and has added three homers and eight stolen bases to his totals. At this point he has a chance to steal close to 30 bags but anywhere near 15 homers is out of the question.

Chris Heisey – I liked Chris as a reserve round pick this year, sure that Dusty Baker would eventually tire of Jonny Gomes’ subpar defense. After all, it’s not like Gomes has enough offensive ability for the bad defense to be overlooked. Heisey got some playing time earlier in the year but has seen much more since the trade of Gomes to the Washington Nationals. Heisey has contributed a dozen home runs, five steals and an average near .250 for the Reds so far and will likely meet or surpass my expectations in every category with the exception of a lighter BA.

PANS

Jayson Werth – In real baseball, Werth has certainly been less than expected, especially when you take into consideration the outrageous contract the Nats gave him. He hasn’t been any less disappointing as a fantasy player with only 13 homers and a .226 BA. Yes, he does have 14 steals and could surpass his single-season high of 20 but that pales in comparison to how poorly his final line could be - .226/71/19/63. All of these would be significantly lower than most people were counting on.

Carlos Lee – On the positive side, Lee’s BA has rebounded about 20 points this year. On the other hand, his home run production, which has been in a slide, has actually fallen off the cliff this year. Carlos finished 2010 with 24 homers in 605 at-bats but at his current pace will finish 2011 with 14 home runs in 599 at-bats. His saving grace will be a comparable amount of RBIs and runs thanks in large part to a 40 point increase in BABIP.

Carlos Beltran – The New York Mets (now San Francisco Giants) outfielder has actually been fairly productive and mostly healthy this year. Carlos is hitting just under .290 and his 15 homers puts him on track for 22, which would be his highest season total since 2008. The steals still aren’t there and probably won’t be anymore but Beltran is still on a pace for 94 runs scored and 100 RBIs, which would again be his highest season totals since 2008.

Jonny Gomes – Well, it happened. Dusty and the Cincinnati Reds front office grew tired of Gomes for whichever reason and shipped him off to the Washington Nationals where he will probably see even less playing time. The 30-year-old outfielder has hit 11 bombs so far and will be fairly close to last year’s total of 18, but a .212 BA certainly won’t cut it. Gomes will see significantly decreased totals in runs scored and RBIs when the season finally ends.

Pat Burrell – Pat the Bat will most likely end 2011 with about 125 fewer at-bats than he had in 2010. His seven homers to date will leave him far short of 2010’s 20 dingers. Combine that with a pitifully lousy pace for 25 runs scored and 30 RBIs along with an average hovering in the .230 range, and you have yourself proof of one of the worst signings of the past offseason. While Brandon Belt has had his struggles with Major League pitching, how much worse could the Giants have been if they gave him the full-time reins?

This is always an interesting little exercise for me although this is the first time it was meant for more than just my eyes only. It’s fairly evident I did better picking my pans than picking my picks – at least in the NL outfield. For me, the fun part is not really how many I nailed but, rather, the whole process of mulling individual players over in my head and coming up with my own analysis of what their actual skill level, production, and value will be. As we head into the final turn towards the 2011 stretch run, I’m already looking forward to next year’s iteration.

This is the final part grading each National League team on their first half performance.

Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates are the feel good story of the 2011 season and are in the thick of the Central Division race only one game out of first. The Bucs are four games over .500 and are playing winning ball both at home and on the road. Pittsburgh’s strength hasn’t been its offense as they are on the wrong side of the league average in just about every category except SB. Andrew McCutchen leads the team in HR, BA, R, and SB and is becoming a fantasy stud. Other than him, no one is standing out on this Pirates team. Jose Tabata is second with 14 SB; Neil Walker leads with 59 RBI; Chris Snyder and Ryan Doumit has been a good backstop tandem but both are now on the disabled list. Lyle Overbay is well below average at first base. Pedro Alvarez has been a major disappointment at the hot corner with only two HR and a .208 average and was sent back to AAA after coming off the DL to try to work out his problems.

The strength of this team has been its pitching. There aren’t any aces on this team. In fact, the starting staff is a collection of unspectacular hurlers, many of whom are having career years. Kevin Correia leads the team with 11 wins and needs only one more to tie his career high. Jeff Karstens has the best WHIP (1.07) and ERA (2.55) of his career. Likewise with Paul Maholm and his 1.18 WHIP and 2.96 ERA. Charlie Morton has tied his career high for wins in a season with seven. Nobody on this staff strikes out many hitters and James McDonald leads them with a 7.19 K/9. Joel Hanrahan has been perfect in save chances with 26 out of 26.

GRADES: Pitching – (B); Hitting – (D)

San Diego Padres – San Diego is at the bottom of the West Division 12 games under .500 and 12 games out of first place. They are playing to a losing record both at home and on the road. This is an abysmal offensive team with the lowest BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS in the league. They have managed to hit a grand total of 48 HR and have struck out the most times in the NL. On a positive, they are tied for the league lead with 89 stolen bases. Chase Headley has been their best average hitter with a .299 mark. Ryan Ludwick is the team leader with 11 HR and 55 RBI. No one else on the team has more than five HR or 31 RBI. Jason Bartlett’s 18 SB are the most and Will Venable, Orlando Hudson, and Cameron Maybin are all in double digits. Top prospect Anthony Rizzo was brought up but is struggling with a .165 BA thus far.

The Padres are another team that has one of the best ERA’s (3.23) in the league but who don’t strike out many hitters (6.82/9). San Diego’s BAA is the fourth best in the NL at .248 and their 57 HR allowed is second best. Even though he has missed a month to a foot injury, Aaron Harang is leading the team with seven wins and is having a very good comeback year. Tim Stauffer has the best WHIP and ERA among the regular starters with 1.21 and 2.97 respectively. Mat Latos has had an up and down year and is the only starter with a good strikeout rate (8.34/9). Dustin Moseley and Clayton Richard are a combined 7-17 although they both have a sub 3.90 ERA. Heath Bell has seen a major dip in his strikeout rate but is still 26 of 27 in save chances. He and Mike Adams comprise one of the best one-two bullpen punches in the league.

GRADES: Pitching – (B+); Hitting – (F)

San Francisco Giants – San Francisco leads the pack in the West, 12 games over .500 and three games ahead of the Arizona Diamondbacks. This is another team that hasn’t gotten to where they are on the strength of their bats with a .243 average that is fourth from the bottom in the NL. The Giants are the second worst in the league scoring runs with a grand total of 332. The offense which wasn’t good to begin with, got worse with the loss of Buster Posey. A sign of how bad things are, Miguel Tejada leads the team with a .241 BA among those players with enough at bats to qualify for the title. Pablo Sandoval was having a good comeback season before being put on the sidelines with a wrist injury. Even with the time off and 140 fewer at bats he is still tied with the most homeruns on the team at eight with Aubrey Huff. Sandoval has gotten his average up over .300 after a disappointing 2010 season. Andres Torres is the big SB threat on this team but has a hard time getting on base.

The Giants are one of the better pitching teams in the league and have struck out more hitters and have a lower BAA than any other team. Matt Cain leads the team with an 8-5 record and is one of two pitchers with over 100 strikeouts. Obviously, the other is Tim Lincecum who has 132 punch outs in 123 innings but an unspectacular 7-7 record. Madison Bumgarner has pitched pretty well and has a good number of strikeouts but has only managed a 4-9 record. Ryan Vogelsong has been the big surprise winning six of seven decisions with a 2.17 ERA. Brian Wilson and his beard have made good on 26 of 30 save chances. He has struck out a batter per inning along the way but allows way too many base runners as indicated by his 1.42 WHIP.

GRADE: Pitching – (A); Hitting – (F)

St. Louis Cardinals – The Redbirds are tied with the Milwaukee Brewers for first place in the Central Division. St. Louis leads the National League in BA, OBP, SLG, and OPS. All with Albert Pujols having a subpar season with 18 HR and a .280 BA, which is his high water mark for the year. Lance Berkman has been a pleasant surprise leading the team with 24 HR and 63 RBI. Matt Holliday spent some time on the DL but is back raking again to the tune of 14 HR and a .324 BA. This isn’t a running team with only 35 SB against 22 caught stealing for a lousy 61% success rate. Ryan Theriot and Yadier Molina have provided good batting averages and some counting stats while Colby Rasmus, who was a popular pre-season pick, has been a disappointment.

St. Louis has not been a good pitching team this year and are, in fact, near the bottom in strikeouts and BAA. Obviously, the loss of Adam Wainwright has had its effect. Jaime Garcia is the team ace with a 9-3 record in 18 starts. Jaime is the only pitcher on the Cardinals staff with at least 100 strikeouts. Chris Carpenter has had a down year with a 4-7 record and his worst ERA since his days with the Toronto Blue Jays. Kyle Lohse has had a productive season winning eight of 14 decisions. Dave Duncan hasn’t worked his magic on Jake Westbrook. Even though he has a 7-4 record it comes with a 1.61 WHIP and 5.34 ERA. Fernando Salas is closing out games with 16 of 18 chances converted and a strikeout per inning.

GRADES: Pitching – (B+); Hitting – (D+)

Washington Nationals – The Washington Nationals are playing .500 ball this late in the season but are still 11 ½ games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East. The Nats are a cool ten games over .500 at home but give it all away on the road. Washington is offensively challenged and doesn’t score many runs or hit for a good average. The bright spots have been Michael Morse and his 15 HR and .306 BA, and Danny Espinosa’s 16 HR and 12 SB. The not so bright spots include Jayson Werth and Ian Desmond. While Werth has ten HR and 11 SB he’s also hitting .215 with a .319 OBP. Desmond has 20 SB but it comes with a draining .223 BA and .264 OBP.

Washington doesn’t have much of a pitching staff either. With Stephen Strasburg out for the year, there isn’t much to talk about in a starting rotation consisting of Livan Hernandez, John Lannan, and Jason Marquis. The best pitcher has been Jordan Zimmermann who, despite a losing 6-7 record, is pitching well with a 1.07 WHIP and 2.66 ERA. He leads the team with 82 strikeouts but with 115 innings pitched that only equates to a 6.42/9 rate. Tyler Clippard has pitched well coming out of the bullpen striking out 63 hitters in just over 51 innings with a 0.86 WHIP and 1.75 ERA. Drew Storen finishes off games and has saved 23 of 26 on the season with a 0.97 WHIP and 2.53 ERA.

GRADES: Pitching – (D); Hitting – (D)

This is the second of three parts grading each National League team on their first half performance.

Florida Marlins – The Marlins have passed the Washington Nationals for futility in the National League East. They are mired in last place, five games under .500 and 14 games out of first. And that was after they had won seven of their last ten games. Florida is the third worst in the league in run differential with a -44. Their team batting average of .245 puts them in the bottom third in the NL and The Fish are below league average in OPS, SLG, OBP, HR, Hits, and K's. The obvious culprit has been Hanley Ramirez, whose line of .242/37/8/46/15 is well below what his draft price expected. Things were much worse at the beginning of July as Hanley was languishing with a .222 BA. The third base troika of Emilio Bonifacio, Greg Dobbs, and Wes Helms hasn’t provided much except some batting average boost and 16 stolen bases from Bonifacio. The youngsters Gaby Sanchez, Logan Morrison, and Mike Stanton have played well and have 43 homers between them but they can’t be expected to carry the whole load by themselves. They should provide the Marlins with a solid core for years to come. John Buck provides some pop behind the plate with ten home runs but is a batting average drain.

Marlins pitchers were led by Josh Johnson, who was outstanding up until he was sidelined with a shoulder injury and Florida is hoping he can get back sometime after the break. Ricky Nolasco is having what is easily his best year since 2008 and is tied for the team lead in victories among starting pitchers with six. Anibal Sanchez – also with six wins to his credit – has increased his strikeout rate by better than two per nine innings and is fanning better than a batter per inning. Both have performed well over the first half. At the other end of the spectrum are Javier Vazquez and Chris Volstad – both of whom have five wins versus eight losses and don’t get many strikeouts, hovering near the 6.00 K/9 mark. Vazquez has not had a resurgence back in the NL as many expected he would and is languishing with a 1.51 WHIP and 5.23 ERA. Leo Nunez is having another very good year finishing off games, converting 25 of 28 save chances, and stands to shatter his season record 30 saves from 2010. Edward Mujica and Mike Dunn are both having good years vulturing six and five wins respectively.

GRADES: Pitching – (B-); Hitting – (C+)

Houston Astros – Meet the new doormats of the National League. The Astros are a very bad team and it’s reflected in their pitiful 32 games below .500 record at the midway point. Houston has the fewest home victories by a good margin compared to any other team in the league and their run differential of -106 is the worst in baseball. The Astros have one of the better team batting averages in the NL but are below league average in runs scored. Although they play in a good hitter's park, Houston doesn’t have many home run hitters and have only managed 50 on the year – second from the bottom in the NL. Second from the bottom is also their position in drawing bases on balls. When they are on base, Astros baserunners steal a good number and are second in the league in stolen base percentage – they just have to figure out how to get across home plate. Hunter Pence is their undisputed offensive leader with a team best in BA, HR, RBI, OPS, and OBP among those with a qualifying number of at-bats. Pence, with 11 homers, is the only player on the team with double-digit long balls. Carlos Lee has pitched in seven while Chris Johnson has six. Pence is hitting a torrid .323 and Brett Wallace and Michael Bourn are each batting at least .285. No other regular is hitting above .268. Bourn leads the team with 35 steals in 39 attempts – a 90% success rate.

On the mound Wandy Rodriguez leads the team with six wins but the best starting pitcher has been Bud Norris with a 1.25 WHIP, 3.46 ERA and 113 strikeouts in 112 innings. But Rodriguez and Norris are both on their way to career highs in home runs allowed, having given up 13 and 11 respectively. Both, however, pale in comparison to the 23 Brett Myers has surrendered which accounts for much of his 4.88 ERA. J.A. Happ has started 18 games but hasn’t had much success either with a 1.57 WHIP and 5.76 ERA to go along with 13 home runs allowed. In eight starts, prospect Jordan Lyles has shown flashes of what he can do but has a long way to go. Mark Melancon has taken over the closer duties from the injured Brandon Lyon but there just aren’t many save chances on a team as bad as the Astros and he has only converted six of nine – not a good percentage.

GRADES: Pitching – (F); Hitting – (F)

Los Angeles Dodgers – There is a lot of turmoil surrounding the Dodgers with the McCourt divorce, et al and it is showing in the standings with Los Angeles mired in fourth place, ten games under .500 and 11 games out of  first. The Dodgers are one of a handful of teams with losing records both on their home field and on the road. They do an average job of getting on base but are near the bottom of the league in scoring runs and driving runners in. Dodger hitters also have a good eye at the plate, striking out one of the fewest times in the NL. When they get on base, they are apt to try to steal an additional base, with the fourth highest total in steals, and are very successful – 81% of the time. However, power is not a big part of their game with only 63 homers on the year. Matt Kemp is the biggest offensive threat and is having an outstanding bounce-back campaign with 22 homers and 27 steals in 30 attempts to go along with a .313 BA and team high 67 RBIs. In fact, Kemp is the only Dodger with double-digit homers. Andre Ethier is hitting for average but is light on power with only nine home runs to this point. James Loney has been and still is a well below average offensive first baseman with only four dingers on the year with a .268 BA. Tony Gwynn Jr. has the second highest total stolen bases on the team but will stand to lose playing time to the recently acquired Juan Rivera. Juan Uribe has been a major disappointment with only four homers and a .207 BA after hitting 24 homers and batting .248 for the San Francisco Giants in 2010.

Dodger pitching has been middle of the pack for the NL – they are not really good or really bad at most any statistical category. Except, that is, for save opportunities where they have the fewest in the league and second fewest number of saves. Jonathan Broxton leads the team with seven but is on the DL. He hasn’t pitched since May 3 and is questionable for the rest of the year, leaving the back end of the bullpen in a state of flux. In the starting rotation, Clayton Kershaw and Hiroki Kuroda have been very effective, with the lack of a reliable offense betraying them on occasion. Chad Billingsley has given up more line drives than usual and, as a result, his hits allowed is up as is his bases on balls, resulting in a 1.40 WHIP. Ted Lilly has regressed some, allowing better than a hit per inning while striking out 2.5 fewer hitters per nine. Rubby De La Rosa has pitched nicely filling in for Jon Garland, who is done for the season.

GRADE: Pitching – (C-); Hitting – (D)

Milwaukee Brewers – Milwaukee finds themselves tied for first place in the Central Division on the strength of being 19 games over .500 at home – quite the opposite of their road record of 13 games under. The 405 runs the Brew Crew have scored are the fourth highest in the league but they have given up 406 to their opponents. They hit for a pretty good average and have the most home runs in the NL. Ryan Braun has been a five-category stud, hitting .320 with 16 homers and 19 steals while Prince Fielder leads the team with 22 homers and 72 RBIs. Rickie Weeks is on pace for 30-plus homers; however, his seasons of 20-plus steals could be over, as he had only 11 last year and has seven to date in 2011. Jonathan Lucroy is hitting for average and providing some pop behind the plate. The left side of the infield – Casey McGehee and Yuniesky Betancourt – has been a black hole with a combined .230 BA and ten home runs.

Milwaukee has a team ERA of 4.06 which is high – even for an American League team where the average is 3.88, and their BAA of .253 is right at league average. They are the third best in the NL in allowing bases on balls and striking out opposing hitters. Yovani Gallardo leads the team with ten wins in 19 starts and has struck out a team high 104 hitters. It was widely thought Zack Greinke’s arrival in Milwaukee would put them over the top. He has shown flashes of brilliance but has been very inconsistent as his 5.45 ERA indicates, even though his strikeout rate of 11.99 K/9 is a team high. Shaun Marcum has had the best peripherals with a 1.13 WHIP and 3.39 ERA in support of seven victories. Randy Wolf has pitched satisfactorily on the way to a 6-6 record, but Chris Narveson, even though he has a positive 6-5 record, allows too many baserunners and hence, a 4.75 ERA. John Axford is doing well finishing off games with 23 saves in 25 chances. The rest of the bullpen hasn’t been as effective, especially with setup man Takashi Saito spending so much time on the DL and only appearing in five games.

GRADES: Pitching – (C); Hitting – (B+)

New York Mets – The Metropolitans have been a bit of a surprise as they have managed a winning record despite being three games under .500 at Citi Field. They are in third place in the division but are well behind the division leading Philadelphia Phillies and runner-up Atlanta Braves. New York has done a good job hitting for average and getting on base and scoring runs but is sorely lacking in power as their 58 homers are third from the bottom in the NL. A resurgent Carlos Beltran leads the team with 13 and is hitting .285 but stolen bases are no longer a significant part of his game as he has only three. Jose Reyes has maximized his trade value, if management decides to go that route, with a .354/32/3/65/30 line. Ike Davis (seven home runs, .302 BA) and David Wright (six homers, nine steals, .226 BA) have spent significant time on the DL. Jason Bay has contributed six home runs and eight stolen bases but is only hitting .237 on the year. Angel Pagan is second on the team with 18 steals but only gets on base at a .326 clip.

Mets pitching has done better than expected considering they have gone without ace Johan Santana for the entire season and Chris Young (who had been pitching very well) for all but four games. They are middle of the pack in ERA, strikeouts, and BAA but team OBP is at the high end of the scale. Dillon Gee, Jonathon Niese, and Chris Capuano each have eight wins to lead the team. Niese also leads the team with 92 strikeouts. R.A. Dickey and Mike Pelfrey round out the rotation and have losing records. Gee is the only starter with a below 1.32 WHIP. Francisco Rodriguez has saved 23 of 26 opportunities but is a prime trade chip with a huge $17.5 million option if he finishes 55 games this year. The rest of the bullpen – particularly Taylor Buchholz, Jason Isringhausen, and Pedro Beato – have pitched well.

GRADES: Pitching – (C+); Hitting – (C)

Philadelphia Phillies – The Phillies rule the roost in the National League with the best record at 57-34. Philadelphia is the only team in the NL with a win percentage over .600 and has a league best run differential. They are, in fact, the only NL team to allow fewer than 300 runs. Surprisingly, however, the Phils are only about a league average offensive team. To their credit, they put the ball in play, having struck out the fewest times. Ryan Howard leads the team with 18 homers and 72 RBIs. Jimmy Rollins has hit more homers and stolen more bases than he did last year. Chase Utley is back from a knee injury and is stealing bases again. Placido Polanco has been adequate if not spectacular at third base, chipping in four home runs and 39 RBIs. Shane Victorino has contributed nine homers and 13 steals with his .303 BA. In the first month of the season, it looked like Raul Ibanez was done, but he has rallied some and now has 12 home runs. Domonic Brown is a rookie and has performed like one with ups and downs.

The strength of this Phillies team is their pitching with the big three of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. The trio has led Philadelphia to the best ERA, most wins, and fewest bases on balls in the league. Halladay and Hamels each have 11 wins to lead the team and they, along with Cliff Lee, have at least 121 strikeouts each. Lee has added another nine wins. Their WHIP and ERA are equally impressive with Hamels posting a 0.93 and 2.32 respectively, Halladay at 1.02 and 2.45 and Lee at 1.06 and 2.82. Roy Oswalt has been on the DL with a back issue. Kyle Kendrick and Vance Worley have pitched well as fill-ins. The Phils have used three different pitchers in the closer spot – Jose Contreras, Ryan Madson, and Antonio Bastardo – with Brad Lidge sidelined since the start of the season. The three have combined for 25 saves and only three blown saves for the best percentage in the National League.

GRADES: - Pitching (A+); Hitting (B)

The last series for each team before the mid-season break has been completed. Teams will be looking to regroup or continue the momentum they have going into the second half. Players not going to the All-Star game will be getting a few days off to recharge their batteries while those participating will be enjoying their time in the spotlight. Now is as good a time as any to look back and assess where each team is and how they have done in the first half.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Believe it or not, the Diamondbacks are in the thick of the West Division race only three games back in second place. Their team ERA of 4.08 and BAA of .259 rank in the bottom half of the NL but the top three-fifths of their rotation – Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, and Joe Saunders - all have an ERA under 3.90 which is no small task in Chase Field. Rookie Josh Collmenter has pitched very well despite a losing record. On the other hand, Armando Galarraga, Barry Enright, and Zach Duke all have ERAs of at least 5.47. J.J. Putz has converted 21 of 25 save opportunities but is currently on the disabled list. David Hernandez has been closing out games in his stead and is seven of nine in save chances on the year. But both relievers have allowed their share of runs with both sporting an ERA higher than 3.00.

On the hitting side, Arizona is middle of the pack in BA and near the top in strikeouts. They are also second in the league in HR with 101. They swing and miss a lot but when they make contact the ball flies out of the park. Justin Upton leads the regulars with a .293 BA and is on his way to a 25/25 season with 15 HR and 14 SB. Chris Young is tied for the team lead in HR with 16 and has chipped in 12 SB as well. Besides Upton and Young, there are three other players with double digit HR – Miguel Montero, Ryan Roberts, and Kelly Johnson. Roberts has been a pleasant surprise adding 13 stolen bases of his own. Johnson is only hitting slightly over the Mendoza line and already has 102 strikeouts while Upton, Young, Stephen Drew, and Roberts are also on their way to the century mark for whiffs.

GRADES: Pitching – (C); Hitting – (B)

Atlanta Braves – It’s been a good and somewhat surprising season for the Braves. They have managed to stay close to the Philadelphia Phillies thanks in large part to their pitching. The Phillies got all the press with their three big starting pitchers but Atlanta leads the National League in WHIP, ERA, and OPS. Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson have been outstanding while Tim Hudson has been pretty good himself.  On the back end, Jonny Venters and Craig Kimbrel have been as good as any duo finishing off games.

At the plate, it’s been a different story for the Braves. They are near the bottom of the league with a .239 BA and .307 OBP and are near the top in strikeouts. They have no team speed as evidenced by a league worst number of stolen bases and a success rate of just over 50%. Brian McCann leads the team in virtually every hitting category. He, along with Freddie Freeman, account for most of Atlanta’s damage to opposing pitchers. Chipper Jones is in the twilight of his career and has managed only eight homeruns and a .259 BA. Dan Uggla (who was supposed to supply much needed power) has clubbed 14 HR but is only hitting a miniscule .185.

GRADES: Pitching – (A+); Hitting – (F)

Chicago Cubs – Another disappointing year for the Cubbies and their fans. Chicago is sitting in fifth place in the Central Division, 12 games out of first and 18 games under .500. They are one of only four National League teams to be playing sub .500 ball both on the road and at home. They have the second worst run differential in the league. The Cubs are near the top of the league in BA but only middle of the road in OBP and HR. They strike out more times than the league average and are dead last in drawing bases on balls. Stolen bases are not part of their game as they have attempted the second fewest steals in the league although they do succeed about three quarters of the time. Carlos Pena leads the team in HR after going the month of April without hitting any. Aramis Ramirez has added 15 and Alfonso Soriano has added 14 round trippers. Starlin Castro and Darwin Barney have been consistent in getting  on base and Castro is tied for the team lead with ten SB. Barney has been a pleasant surprise at 2B and he, Castro, and Marlon Byrd are all hitting above .290 on the year as regular players.

Pitching has been the Achilles heel for the Cubs as they are firmly entrenched with the second worst ERA in the league. Matt Garza, leader among the starters with a 4.26 ERA, has been a disappointment with only four victories and seven losses in 16 starts. Carlos Zambrano leads the team with six wins, has a 4.34 ERA and has only struck out six batters/nine innings. Ryan Dempster had finally gotten his ERA under 5.00 for the first time this season before again allowing it to climb over that mark in his last start and has allowed better than a hit/inning to go along with 14 homeruns. Doug Davis, Randy Wells, and Casey Coleman haven’t worked out as starters either with ERA’s of 6.50, 6.80 and 7.23 respectively. In the bullpen, Carlos Marmol has converted 19 of 25 save chances and has allowed 12 earned runs on the year, six of them coming in one outing against the Houston Astros. Without that game, Marmol’s ERA would be 1.29 instead of the 2.57 he has now. Sean Marshall and Kerry Wood have also been very good out of the pen with ERAs under 2.80 while striking out at least 8.38 hitters per nine.

GRADE: Pitching – (D); Hitting – (C-)

Cincinnati Reds – This team has been a personal disappointment for me since I picked them to win the Central Division. Although the Reds are two games under .500, they are still in the race only four games out. Cincinnati is just about as good as anyone in the NL with a .260 BA, .330 OBP, and .405 SLG. Hitting homeruns is definitely part of their game with 100 – third best in the league. They are the leaders in runs scored and tied for the lead in RBI. Joey Votto leads the team with a .324 BA and .438 OBP while Jay Bruce has broken out with 21 HR and 57 RBI to lead Cincinnati. Brandon Phillips has improved his batting eye and is hitting for a higher average but is off the pace in HR and SB. Drew Stubbs has 11 HR and 23 SB but has struggled to a .250 BA and has whiffed 122 times. Between Scott Rolen, Miguel Cairo, Paul Janish, and Edgar Renteria the Reds have a combined nine HR out of the SS and 3B positions. Chris Heisey and Jonny Gomes have a total of 21 HR from LF but only a .233 BA.

The Reds are near the bottom of the league with an ERA of 4.17 and .739 OPS and have allowed a whopping 103 HR. Only two NL teams have a lower K/BB than Cincinnati does. Of the seven pitchers they have used for multiple starts, only Johnny Cueto and Sam LeCure have an ERA under 4.00. Travis Wood, Bronson Arroyo, and Edinson Volquez have a plus 5.00 ERA and 1.40 WHIP. With the exception of LeCure and Volquez, none of the starting pitchers have a strikeout rate greater than 6.56/9. Things have been so bad Volquez has even been demoted for Dontrelle Willis. In the bullpen, Francisco Cordero has been successful in 17 out of 22 save chances but is no longer a strikeout pitcher with his K rate plummeting from 12.22 in 2007 to 6.23 this year. The rest of the relievers have been pretty successful with the exception of Aroldis Chapman who has struggled with his control in surrendering better than a walk per inning.

GRADES: Pitching – (D); Hitting – (C+)

Colorado Rockies – Colorado finished the first half of the season in third place in the National League West, 8.5 games from the leaders and five games under .500. They are just at the break even mark at home and five games below away from Coors Field. The Rockies are middle of the pack in BA but in the top third in most other offensive categories in the NL. The overall hitting leader has been Carlos Gonzalez with a .292/51/13/55/14 line. Troy Tulowitzki is on a pace to outperform last year in HR, RBI, and SB although it is coming at the expense of a 44 point drop in batting average. Todd Helton has been a surprise with ten HR and a .321 BA. Chris Iannetta has chipped in ten HR behind the plate and Ty Wigginton has been valuable with 13 HR at playing at multiple positions. Jason Giambi has chipped in with nine dingers in limited at bats but three of them have come in one game. Dexter Fowler has been a disappointment without any HR at this point and a .238 BA and is in AAA on a rehab assignment where he is not doing very well.

Colorado’s pitching has been near the bottom of the league and a big reason has been the performance of Ubaldo Jimenez who has regressed after a breakout 2010 season. With an ERA over 40% higher and one-half strikeout per nine lower than last year, this is not what the Rockies envisioned for Ubaldo coming into 2010. However, Joulys Chacin has stepped up and provided some improvements of his own over last year. Jorge de la Rosa had been doing well until his season was ended with Tommy John surgery and Huston Street has converted 26 of 28 saves but is still considered an injury risk going forward.

GRADES: Pitching – (C); Hitting – (C)

The calendar has turned to July and the dog days of summer are upon us. So what does that mean in the baseball world? For one, the All-Star game – the traditional (if unofficial) halfway point of the season - along with the spectacle called the Home Run Derby is only a couple of weeks away.

Also, the non-waiver trade deadline is the last day of the month and it’s time for Major League clubs to take a good hard look at themselves. While the season on the whole is a marathon, this next month turns into somewhat of a mad sprint as GMs look to outdo each other and be the first to land the big prize that will, hopefully, push them over the top to a pennant. It could very well be the upcoming month that makes or breaks a team’s season.

Teams need to start to decide if they are either serious contenders and want to add a piece or two for the second half run, on the bubble and could add a game changer or two to push them over the top or clearly out of the running and want to deal for future considerations. There are three such teams in the National League East – the Philadelphia Phillies, Atlanta Braves and New York Mets. Whichever category they fall into, their general manager (as will all other GMs)  will be putting their brain cells at risk of being fried by cell phones talking with their counterparts from other teams as well as their team’s own brain trust and scouts in an effort to make the deal or deals that will define their immediate future.

The Phillies are 20 games over .500 and atop the division. You would think that a team with that record near the break and with starting pitching the likes of Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels wouldn’t have much to worry about. But there are some concerns in the City of Brotherly Love. First, there are issues at the back of the bullpen. Brad Lidge has yet to throw a pitch in a real game this season. Jose Contreras, who started the season as the closer, is on his second DL stint. Ryan Madson, who took over as closer when Contreras landed on the DL for the first time, is now sidelined. So that leaves the Phils with Antonio Bastardo, fourth on the closer depth chart, as the de facto game finisher.

While it has worked out for Philadelphia up to this point, they don’t want to tempt fate for the rest of the year and would like proven insurance for the position. Players that could interest Ruben Amaro are Kevin Gregg, Brian Fuentes, Francisco Rodriguez (if the Mets would even want to help their division rival), Leo Nunez, Kerry Wood, Heath Bell and Hong-Chih Kuo – all of whom have had experience closing out games.

The Phillies also could use a right-handed bat to complement their obvious left-handed power. Carlos Lee (who has 2011 and 2012 left on his contract at $18.5 million each year) and Hunter Pence (last year of contract at $6.9 million) could be available. The Rays might be able to be enticed to let B.J. Upton go to make way for Desmond Jennings after the Super-2 deadline passes. The Mets have Carlos Beltran but see Francisco Rodriguez above.

The next team would be the Atlanta Braves. The Braves are one of the leaders in the National League on the pitching side. They lead the NL in batting average against and are second in strikeouts. The Braves have always been able to field good pitching teams. The problem is at the plate where they are near the bottom of the league in batting average and in the lower third in strikeouts and OPS. Other than Brian McCann, there isn’t anyone else who is a serious offensive threat. After the catcher’s .314 average, the closest is the .277 of Martin Prado. There are serious drop-offs after that culminating in Dan Uggla’s .178 average and 70 strikeouts in just over 300 at-bats. The Braves are in pretty dire need of some offense and could make a bold move by trading Jair Jurrjens, who is at his peak value right now and who I wrote last week probably isn’t going to maintain this level of performance.

With a real paucity of power in their outfield, the Braves would welcome any of the aforementioned Carlos Lee, Hunter Pence, B.J. Upton or Carlos Beltran. Even though it’s within the division, the Mets might not mind helping the Braves if it lands them someone like Jurrjens. Alfonso Soriano is a real long shot since he still has through 2014 with $18 million per year on his contract.

Before the whole Frank McCourt thing and the Los Angeles Dodgers filing for bankruptcy, there was the New York Mets, the Wilpons, and Bernie Madoff. Even though the Mets have been playing fairly well, they are still almost double-digit games out of first place in the NL East. Due to financial constraints and being in the same division as the Phillies, the Metropolitans fall into the category of out of the running. They have a number of players who are potential candidates for a change of scenery. At the top of the list is shortstop Jose Reyes who, at this point in the season, is arguably the best fantasy player in baseball. Reyes is in the final year of a four-year contract and is going to make a total of $11 million by season’s end. He certainly would be a difference maker for any team. The possible drawback for the Mets in trading him is since he is owed so much this year the team would either have to pick up a good portion of his contract or see their return package greatly limited.

In the same boat as Reyes is Carlos Beltran, who was due a total of $18.5 million this year. But finally, the Mets will be done with his contract, which has not been a good signing for New York. The 34 year old is having a productive year after all the injuries and would be a good addition for a contending team although he doesn’t run much anymore. A sticking point to a possible deal could be the full no-trade clause in his contract.

The third player the Mets could send packing is closer Francisco Rodriguez. While K-Rod has struck out better than a batter per inning, he is also allowing better than one hit per inning. He could be targeted by a team as a closer or setup man. Besides the fact he’s due to make $11.5 million in 2011, he has a $17.5 million option for 2012 that will vest if he finishes 55 games this year and is ruled healthy after the season.

This just covers a few of the teams that could be making changes soon. Much is going to happen in the weeks ahead. Surely, there will be many more rumors than actual deals but GMs will be working the phone long and hard and looking under every rock for the final piece or pieces that could send them into the playoffs or help them in future years. Fantasy owners need to be equally astute and not take anything for granted as it usually isn’t the team in first place at the halfway point that winds up drinking the Yoo-Hoo.

Since its inception, the mantra of Mastersball has been ‘bully hitting and manage pitching’. Those who have been with MB a long time will surely remember Todd Zola and Jason Grey giving such advice to many a forum poster and practicing what they preached in their expert leagues. Spend a lot on offense and throw enough pitching against the wall and some is bound to stick.

This was – and still is – a winning strategy but took some patience and some intestinal fortitude to put into practice. The nature of the pitching that you could pick up and stream in was such that quite often you were reaching for the agita relief afterwards.

Things are a bit different this year, however. So far the 2011 baseball season is being referred to as the year of the pitcher in many fantasy circles. Up to now, hitting (particularly power) is down and pitching is up. There is a plethora of useful pitchers available even in deep leagues, so much so that the bottom of fantasy staffs isn’t nearly the black hole it was in years past.

While there is some good depth in the starting pitching ranks, it’s always nice, and many fantasy players try, to snag one of the top hurlers to anchor their staff. Hence, players like Tim Lincecum, Cliff Lee, and Clayton Kershaw are coveted and highly sought after on draft day. But have they proven to be the most valuable as the season is playing out? In short, no.

The top of the pitching mountain sees two representatives each from the Atlanta Braves and Philadelphia Phillies. Obviously, not the aforementioned Lincecum or Kershaw; nor Lee. In order, they are Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson, Cole Hamels, and Roy Halladay. How have each done and how will they fare for the rest of the year?

Jair Jurrjens has eight victories to show in 13 starts to go along with a 1.14 WHIP and 2.11 ERA. This sets up Jurrjens for an 18 win season. There are other good numbers to go along with these. Jair has lowered his HR/9 by better than 50% and his HR/FB and BB/9 by just under 50%. BABIP has alternated from .300 to about .270 each year and this year is at the low range while the strand rate has jumped 12%. Jurrjens has lowered his fly-ball rate by better than seven percent while his ground-ball rate has increased by nearly four percent.

But there are a few blemishes to go along with the good. Most glaring is the strikeout rate, which was never that good, has plummeted to 5.35 – the lowest since he joined the Braves. While ground-ball and fly-ball rates have gone in the right direction, line-drives have increased by four and one-half percent. Hitters are swinging at almost two percent less of his offerings while making contact almost four percent more. Combine that with a fastball that is 1.7 miles slower than last year and under 90 MPH for the first time in the big leagues, and I believe Jurrjens is prime for a correction upward in both WHIP and ERA – especially if his historically low BB/9 heads back to his norm which is north of 3.10.

The next pitcher on the list, Tommy Hanson, has won eight of 14 starts in 2011. He has posted a 1.03 WHIP and 2.48 ERA in garnering those victories. Helping him to that low ERA is a good homerun rate of 0.65 which is in line with his major league mark and a strand rate that has jumped about seven percent over 2010 but still within line with 2009. An increase in ground-ball rate along with a decrease in fly-ball rate has offset a two percent increase in HR/FB. Tommy has a BABIP under .300 every year as a professional so while that could be his baseline this year’s .240 is 35 points lower than 2009’s level.

 2011 has seen Hanson’s bases on balls increase to 2009’s level (3.24/9) while at the same time his strikeout rate has increased significantly and now sits at 9.61/9. The previous two years were 8.18 and 7.68 in 2009 and 2010, respectively. While his fastball velocity has dropped a tad, it is still sitting above 91 MPH. Hitters are swinging at fewer of Hanson’s offerings and contacting even fewer year over year. He will be scratched from his next start but due to the ability to get strikeouts at new levels, I envision Hanson maintaining strong production throughout the year if he can stay healthy. In fact, Hanson is now on the DL.

Cole Hamels has made 15 starts on the season and has been victorious in nine of them with only two losses and seems a lock to surpass his career high 15 wins in 2007. A WHIP of 0.93 leads the National League and a 2.51 ERA is right near the top. Cole’s strikeout rate is nearly the same as last year but has dipped just under 9.0/9 while he has improved bases on balls by just under one walk per nine innings. The 27 year old is sporting a .260 BABIP – an improvement three years in row – and when hitters do manage to get on base they are left there three quarters of the time. A reduction in Cole’s homerun rate by 58% has also gone a long way in supporting his ERA.

Hamels has reduced the number of line drives allowed four years in a row and, at the same time, increased the number of ground balls allowed. The first big change in these rates occurred in the 2010 season and that corresponds with the introduction of a cut fastball into his arsenal. With the success Cole had with this pitch last year, he has increased his use of it in 2011. Since 2009 his fastball use has decreased from 59 to 47 percent while the cutter has gone from zero to 22 percent. The velocity on his fastball has increased almost two miles since he first started using the cutter and now sits squarely at 92 MPH with his cutter coming in at 89 MPH. This pitch has been part of the resurgence of Hamels since a disappointing 2009 season and should enable Cole to stay on the path to becoming recognized as one of the game’s top aces.

The undisputed ace of the Philadelphia Phillies staff entering 2011 was Roy Halladay and he hasn’t disappointed winning nine of 15 starts with only three losses and four complete games. A solid 1.04 WHIP and 2.51 ERA rounds out the surface numbers. Underneath, we see an increase in strikeouts per nine from 7.86 to 9.07 year-over-year. Match that with just over one walk and one-half homerun per nine innings and you have the makings of another ho-hum Roy Halladay season – the kind that every pitcher wishes they could have. Even BABIP and strand rate are boringly consistent with past seasons. Line drives are down a few percentage points while ground balls and fly balls – particularly those on the infield – are up. Additionally, HR/FB has been cut by more than one-third.

The 34 year old is in his prime and showing no sign of letting up. His fastball velocity is still right at 92 miles per hour and a cut fastball, his primary pitch, is at 91 MPH like the past couple years. All his secondary pitches have been consistent in their speed as well. It all adds up to another typical Roy Halladay season and there is no reason to believe it will end differently.

The Philadelphia Phillies are the leaders in the National League East followed by the Atlanta Braves. Each team has gotten where they are largely due to the strength of their pitching. The four aces in this deck have a lot to do with who is holding the winning hand.