Mastersball

This season marks the beginning of my second decade in Tout Wars. It’s definitely one of the events I look most forward to each year, and this year was quite the fun time as always, albeit shortened due to serving as a groomsman in a good friend’s wedding party on Saturday night.

So this year, I opted to try a more conservative approach, moving slightly away from my more aggressive offense-first approach where I dedicate $200 to $210 of my budget to hitting. This year though I really liked the cluster of starters around the $20 range and decided I might try to get two and work with a double-staff anchor approach while purchasing a single high-end closer, filling in with single digits starters the rest of the way, and focusing on mostly a $30 or under per player offense.

I did things slightly differently than in the past in terms of budgeting too. Rather than assign my dollar amounts to specific roster slots, I just went No. 1 to No. 14 for hitters and No. 1 to No. 9 for pitchers and assigned dollars, shifting and reassigning as I bought.

So how did it go? Here are my moves in order of how they occurred

Brian Wilson - $20 – I like the strikeouts and a minor oblique strain was not going to deter me. It did seem to deter others as he went just slightly below projected price.

Jimmy Rollins - $25 – I’ve had Mr. Rollins on many a team and having had ups and downs with him in the past, I still felt this was quite the reasonable price, especially given that his injury issues last near were non-career threatening. Yes he may be slightly post prime, but there is still mid-teens or better home run potential and 30-steal potential here. The fact that he is an upcoming free agent doesn't hurt either.

Matt Cain - $20 – One of my primary targets to anchor my staff. I expected to pay around full price, can’t complain. I really like the control trend over the past three seasons while maintaining the strikeout skills.

Aubrey Huff - $19 – I knew going into the draft there would be some aggressive pushes on the Fielder’s and similar players valued in the higher twenty's, $30 pitchers, so wanted to focus on where I could get value. Huff was $2 under projected value. He still makes good contact, has good plate discipline, and the power returned. The only question – will I be the victim of the odd-year, even-year power outages Huff is prone too? Worst case scenario in my mind he still hits 15 homers and hits .280 to .300. His 2009 batting average was a fluke when compared to the rest of his career.

Matt Holliday - $32 – At this point in the draft, quite a few players had been going over what I valued them at and money was coming off the board. So with a slot budgeted for $30, I decided that if Holliday went right around value, I’d hop on board.

John Axford - $16 – I didn’t intend to buy two solid closers. This slot was really for my second $16 to $20 starter, but at under value, I felt this was a solid move and I’d have the ability later to trade either Wilson or Axford to acquire some other need.

Raul Ibanez - $15 – There was a lot of uninspired bidding going on here even though his skills continue to be consistent. Yes he is 38, but he is still quite durable and I believe he has another .280 20 HR season in him. I think I’ll make a profit here.

Gaby Sanchez - $21 – Like Huff, I targeted my first basemen/corner men in this price range. Sanchez was my primary target with Ike Davis as a back-up, albeit I had Ike at a $5 or less price point due to his platoon splits. They both ended up going for the same price, so I was happy with this selection here.

Angel Pagan $22 – By this point I was becoming rather aware that my only speed source was Jimmy Rollins and the stolen bases Holliday contributes every year. I had foolishly passed on an inexpensive Andres Torres (great pick-up Brian), and then decided to focus on Pagan, who is certain to once again get plenty of at-bats for the Mets. I had him at around $26, so still a bargain, I think.

Javier Vazquez - $13 – Having veered off my original plan slightly, I needed to still get one more arm beyond Cain.  Vazquez seems to thrive in low-pressure environments, so while he may not get as many wins as I would like in Florida, I am crossing my fingers and hoping last year was just New York and not a signal of the beginning of the end – given the decline in BB/9 and K/9. Tim Hudson went shortly after him for the same price, so hoping I don’t regret this selection.

Chipper Jones - $12 – I was originally targeting Placido Polanco here (went for $11), but was noting a need more in the power department than the batting average department, and Chipper came out first (and I still needed a third basemen). I suspect if I had let him go at $11, than Polanco would have ended up going for more than Chipper as I would have ended up in a bidding war for him. The price is below value and is for slightly fewer than 400 at-bats, so he’ll return the price. I know I’ll be shopping for a third basemen at some point, but crossing my fingers Jones gives it his all for his last hurrah as the Braves have a decent team that is capable of making the playoffs.

Tyler Colvin - $11 – Still targeting power and knew I could withstand a batting average hit. I was looking between Colvin and Jonny Gomes. Brian nominated him at $10 and I said $11 and there were no other bids to my surprise.

Skip Schumaker $5 – I had been in on the bidding on several second basemen throughout the draft and in retrospect, I could have said $27 on a Brandon Phillips or $14 on Ryan Theriot, but I don’t mind spending $5 here when I had Schumaker at around $10. If his BABIP rebounds to the level of his two previous starting seasons, he could still put together another .300 season.

J.A. Happ - $4 – Starting to fill out the cheap portion of my pitching staff. Injury issues were much to blame for last season’s performance. If healthy, there is much to like. If not, he is easily benched or cut at this price.

Mike Minor - $3 – Neck and neck with Brandon Beachy with the fifth starter’s race. In retrospect, I’d have rather used the $4 I spent on Happ to get Beachy instead. Whoever wins of the two Braves will return more than the $7, given their high-end skills and quality stuff.

Pat Burrell - $3 – The likely opening day left fielder. He showed his vintage gravy day skills once he returned to the National League last season. Even if he ends up phased out as a stop-gap, he should earn a profit.

Blake DeWitt - $7 – Like with Schumaker, had him valued around $10. He is not going to be anything flashy, but nor should he sink the team either.

Jonathan Lucroy - $4 – Targeted him as my No. 1 catcher when the bidding for Geovany Soto went much higher than expected. I was pleased when he went under value with owners shying away from him due to the broken finger – which may not even cost him a 15-day DL stint. He has good plate discipline skills and the ability to hit for a higher average than he has shown thus far.

Andrew Cashner - $2 – Opened at $2 to crickets. Knew someone else would say $2 on the former first round pick. His control needs some further refinement, but can’t argue with the power fastball/slider, decent changeup, and ground ball skills at $2 as an upside play.

Russell Branyan - $3 – Like Burrell, he may yet win the opening day first base job. His power would play well in Arizona.

Dioner Navarro – $1 – Mistake. My head was in the clouds. I should have waited and taken a pitcher and said Devin Mesoraco with my last pick, though someone might have said "$2" too.

Jordan Lyles - $1 – He isn’t going to break camp with the big league club, but it may not be long at all. I’ll have to pick up someone immediately in FAAB to replace him.

Kyle Lohse - $1 – The injury to Wainwright makes him the fourth starter and he’s having an excellent spring. He’s known for good starts to his season and is playing behind a good offense.

Lance Lynn – R – If Lohse and McCllean do not work out, Lynn could easily be the next option for the Cardinals as their most advanced pitching prospect. He profiles as a middle of the rotation starter.

Wilin Rosario – R – He will be the Rockies’ Triple-A catcher to start the year and has legitimate 20+ home run potential. The Rockies have endured the ups and downs of Chris Iannetta for a long time and Rosario’s time could be coming soon.

Trayvon Robinson – R – The Dodgers are going with a platoon in left field to start the season. This is a stop gap for Robinson, a power/speed threat. So I’m crossing my fingers and hoping Robinson gets off to a great start.

Yonder Alonso – R – His bat is MLB ready now. The Reds may be forced to find a place for him in their lineup (one reason I prefer Colvin above to Gomes) or trade him to a team where he will get playing time. I do get to keep him if he gets traded to an AL club.

One thing that continues to confuse me about Tout is the tendency of most teams to focus on utility type players in the reserve rounds. There simply is no upside to doing this. These are players who are easy to pick off the waiver wire. So instead, I focused on prospects likely to make an impact in 2011. When I had named my last player there were still more I wanted and who continue to remain on the free agent market even now. The only issue with taking minor leaguers is that it is somewhat harder to drop them when you need to make non-injury related moves. My sense here is, I at least blocked another team from taking a player with upside on auction/draft day and that if I have to drop one of my youngsters, at the very least the team that acquires them will have to pay.

This team is some ways a typical team of mine, but other ways not. I do indeed target a lot of boring veterans for my offensive core on a regular basis, but I may have a gone a bit too far overboard with the geriatric community and did not take enough of my risks on the youth side of things.

On the pitching side, while I don’t have the two $20 anchors, I still feel a bit more comfortable with Cain and two good relievers along with the upside of Mike Minor and Andrew Cashner, not to mention the possibilities that Jordan Lyles and Lance Lynn could help my squad later this season much the same way Brett Cecil and Daniel Hudson helped out last season in AL Tout.

From a purchasing standpoint, I did not let myself succumb to any pressure to go over value and let others dictate my spending. I knew where the values were before the draft and stuck to my guns. Every single player was bought at no higher than full projected price or was in my mind a bargain. So the question will come down more to player choice, given that other players were available to me as well that I would not have had to stretch for either!

The move to just assigning dollar amounts without accounting for position worked perfectly fine. I would buy players and reassign unspent dollars as I went, but towards the end game, put the seven last offensive slots back into my budget table just to keep me focused on exactly what positions I needed to fill.

So, a few lessons here are:

1)      Definitely preset your budget. I like using excel as I can easily shift the numbers, rather than have to erase or cross out, but the bottom line for me is you need the ability to be flexible and to micromanage your budget easily on the fly throughout the auction. While not necessary, I do recommend setting it to individual roster slots after you have considered the tiers and where the pockets of value lie. I find that assigning the dollars to the actual roster slots helps me focus and grounds me a bit better on filling the roster while just assigning the dollars to the 14 slots can be a bit more nebulous.

2)      Don’t waste the reserve draft on utility-player veteran types. Keep your focus on upside, especially if you are someone like me who might focus on boring, dependable types in the main phase of the auction. You’ll need the shot in the arm later in the season.

In summation, I believe my team has the potential to be quite competitive, but also has more than its share of risk. I can see this team possibly getting out to a fairly quick start and then getting some injuries or some players set aside as stop gaps. So the key is going to have to be extreme vigilance on the FAABB market and to be proactive on players likely to get injured or to be replaced. I also have to keep a very close eye on the minor leagues and use that $1 FAAB ability in Tout to pick-up minor leaguers on occasions and sit MLB for a week while they sit on my active roster before I can send them down with the hopes they get called up to help my squad.

Rob Leibowitz has been playing fantasy baseball for over two decades and has been a member of Tout Wars for one of them, finishing in the top 5 in eight of those ten years. You can follow him on Twitter @rob_leibowitz

It’s now time to examine those who don the tools of ignorance to earn their living. Yes, this week I’ll take a look at the catchers in the National League. If you play in a two catcher NL only league, I pity you as there isn’t much at the top of the ranks and it thins very rapidly as you get deeper into them. Those in single catcher leagues are much better off, but many teams won’t have a catcher worth bragging about. If you don’t get one near the top, it very well could come down to which one will hurt you the least in the category you can least afford to be hurt. That’s where knowing the makeup of your team and its strengths and weaknesses come in to make a wise selection in a draft or purchase in an auction.

Tier 1:

Brian McCann eclipsed the 20 HR plateau for the fourth time in the last five years. He’s also now had in excess of 475 plate appearances four years running – golden for the position for a fantasy player as it enables him to compile very good counting stats. He had problems with his vision in 2009 but recovered nicely except for a drop in his BA to .269. Look for more of the same in 2011 with a rebound in average closer to his career .289. On an anecdotal note, he is 27 years old this year.

Buster Posey acquitted himself quite well in his inaugural big league season last year. In just over 400 AB he finished with an 18/67/58/.305 line with a .862 OPS. He has the added benefit entering 2011 of multi-position eligibility with 1B as well as catcher. This might be the last year, however, as Bruce Bochy has said he might not see any time at first base at all. This means that when he plays he’ll have the rigors of playing behind the plate all the time and any break he gets will be a full day off. But I’d still expect 450+ at bats.

Tier 2:

Geovany Soto bounced back in a big way in 2010 after he stiffed his owners with a horrible 2009 when they paid for a repeat of his rookie year. He had more six more HR, six more RBI, and 20 more runs scored in nine fewer at bats. Soto also increased his BA from a dismal .218 to .280 last year. He had arthroscopic shoulder surgery and should be good to go this year. Soto should approach 450 AB in 2011.

Miguel Montero is a bounce-back candidate entering 2011 after so many expected so much in 2010. He spent much of the first part of the year recovering from a torn meniscus and didn’t reach those expectations as he played in only 85 games. If he can get 400-450 AB, there is still a chance he can manage 20 HR since he plays in a very hitter friendly home park.

The Colorado Rockies signed Chris Iannetta to a three-year contract with an option last January and don’t have Miguel Olivo anymore so Iannetta is the guy going into 2011. He started 2010 very slowly and was sent back to the minors. He performed well there (as usual for him) and was recalled. In all, he only had 188 AB with the big club with 9 HR and a .197 BA which was fueled by a .214 BABIP – low even by Chris Iannetta standards. Look for the BA to bounce back and, if he gets enough plate appearances, 20 HR.

Yadier Molina had three straight years of at least a .275 BA going into the 2010 season. He then finished last year at .262. Yadier also had three straight years of at least 440 AB but has yet to hit double digit HR in any season in his career. Don’t start looking for it now. He’s shown us basically what he is – a catcher that will accumulate counting stats and give you a BA that won’t kill you.

John Buck came to the Florida Marlins this past off-season after signing a new three-year contract. He had a career year in 2010 for the Toronto Blue Jays with 20 HR and a .281 BA. Buck also struck out a career high 111 times last year. The power is legit but will be tempered a bit in Florida and the BA will be more in line with his career .243 rather than last season’s lofty mark.

Tier 3:

Jonathan Lucroy was pressed into major league service from the minors in 2010 after Gregg Zaun’s season ended with an injury. He finished with 4/26/24/.253 in 277 AB. Lucroy had double digit HR power in the low minors but didn’t replicate that as he moved up the ranks. Look for under ten HR with a batting average that won’t sink your team. Lucroy is nursing a broken pinkie but might still be ready to go at the start of the season.

Carlos Ruiz played in a career high 121 games with the big club in 2010 and finished with 8 HR and a .302 BA. Ruiz demonstrated double digit HR power earlier in the minors but that has failed to materialize with the Phillies although he came close with nine in 2009 and eight in 2010. If he can manage to appear in 130 games he might do it. He probably won’t hit .300 again but anything north of .275 is a bonus for a catcher.

Nick Hundley will get the lion’s share of the catching duty for the San Diego Padres in 2011 after splitting time with Yorvit Torrealba last year. Hundley has the potential for mid-teens HR power even in Petco Park. His BA, while not a picture to behold won’t be an anchor either.

Rod Barajas started 2010 with the New York Mets and was claimed off waivers by the Los Angeles Dodgers last August. He went on to hit .297 and hit five HR in 64 AB for the Dodgers. Don’t expect anything close to that BA going forward. He most likely won’t even hit .250 but could approach 20 HR in Chavez Ravine.

Josh Thole took over the primary catching duties for the New York Mets in 2010 after Rod Barajas’ departure to the West Coast. At 24 years of age, he’s still a youngster and should be the Mets full-time catcher in 2011. Most catchers are an either or proposition when it comes to HR and BA and Thole is no exception. The exception comes in the fact that you’ll get BA from him instead of HR power.

Gone is 2006 and its 23 HR and .275 BA that Ramon Hernandez gave the Baltimore Orioles. Instead we are left with mid to upper single digit HR with a middling batting average. Hernandez will be the primary catcher for the Cincinnati Reds but will be splitting the duties.

Tier 4:

Ryan Hanigan is the other bookend for Ramon Hernandez and is the antithesis of him in that he won’t provide more than a few HR and a better BA. Hanigan has the good habit of drawing more walks than strikeouts so that bodes well for him going forward.

Chris Snyder came from the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2010. He took a mulligan after a very disappointing 5/16/12/.169 in 124 AB over 40 games. He’ll get the lions’ share of the time behind the dish for the Pirates and is capable of 15 HR to go along with a pretty putrid BA.

The years with the Texas Rangers just a distant memory, Ivan Rodriguez enters 2011 as the starting catcher for the Washington Nationals. Pudge hasn’t hit double digit home runs since 2007 and isn’t about to start doing so again this year. Gone with the HR is the batting eye as Rodriguez will top out at the .265 range.

Humberto Quintero is only listed here because the Houston Astros are still a major league team and Jason Castro is out for the majority of 2011 after undergoing knee surgery. You don’t want to be stuck with him on your roster.

If you play in a National League only format instead of American League only you are lucky when it comes to the shortstop position. NL only fantasy players actually have a top of the rankings for shortstops whereas their AL only counterparts start with tier three comparatively speaking. And you’ll pay for the privilege of owning one (or more) of these top players.

In the recently completed NL LABR draft, it was a shortstop which cost the most money. Yes, even more than Albert Pujols. In draft leagues, there are two NL shortstops going in the top four or five picks in mixed leagues according to ADP. So if you’re not in the very top of the draft, you won’t get a chance to roster either of the two best shortstops in baseball.

Tier 1:

Hanley Ramirez missed 20 games last season due to small injuries and had a down year compared to his previous monster campaigns. Most mortal shortstops would welcome a 21/76/92/32/.300 line but Ramirez isn’t just any mortal shortstop. His average, the lowest since his rookie Florida year when he hit .292, was caused at least in part by a low BABIP by Ramirez standards. Hanley is quoted as having said he wants to steal more bases this season but don’t expect his previous highs of 50+. Expect 30, hope for 40 and be happy for 35.

Troy Tulowitzki wound up missing twice as many games as Hanley Ramirez due to a broken wrist. The injury kept him out of the lineup for half of June and most of August but he still managed to swat 27 HR, including 15 in the month of September. Troy had more HR, RBI and a higher BA than Ramirez and some are taking him before Hanley in drafts. Given the opportunity, I would be one of them. Either way, though, you will have an excellent start to your team if you can manage to snag one of them. Tulowitzki was rewarded with a seven-year contract extension worth $134 million that will keep him in Colorado until the 2021 season.

Tier 2:

It wasn’t too long ago that Jose Reyes was considered by many to be the top shortstop in baseball. Then the injuries came and continued to come – sprained ankle, strained hamstring, back problems, torn calf, torn hamstring, and hyperactive thyroid. The perception is Jose is always getting hurt but the reality is it’s only been the last two years. His first four seasons he played in 161, 153, 160, and 159 games; approaching 700 AB in three of those years. But I know, it’s what have you done for me lately. Reyes did have a productive 2010 with 11 HR and 30 SB along with a .286 BA. He’s healthy at this point and has been the subject of trade whispers since this is his contract year combined with the monetary problems of the Wilpons.

Jimmy Rollins is the oldest of the top shortstops – and it showed last year. To be fair, he was injured a great amount of the season and managed just 350 AB. But don’t injuries normally come with age? Rollins had a productive 2009 with 21 HR and 31 SB but hidden beneath that was a .250 BA. He managed just 8 HR and 17 SB last year but just a .243 BA. What you have to decide is if it’s just a byproduct of injuries and bad luck or, alternatively, the sign of a decline having started.

Tier 3:

Rafael Furcal was able to play in only 97 games last year due to injuries. In fact, he hasn’t hit 100 games played in two of the last three years. You can argue, though, that playing in fewer games last year kept him fresher and made him more productive as he hit 8 HR, had 43 RBI and 22 SB along with a .300 BA. By comparison, he had 9 HR, 47 RBI, 12 SB and a .269 BA in 150 games in 2009 – 53 more games than last year. This is the last year of his contract and he’s healthy so that might be a bad thing if you think he needs more time off during the year.

Stephen Drew is perennially thought to be a breakout candidate yet that hasn’t happened in five years. But you’ve had to pay that breakout price each and every year. Will this be the year people get tired of waiting for it to happen and you can get him at a bargain and then he hits his potential with a 20/20 season under a new manager for a full season? It’s a good theory but unlikely to actually happen due to the lack of depth at the shortstop position this year. But he does have that 20/20 potential. He hit 21 HR in 2008 and Kirk Gibson believes he could steal 30 bases if given the opportunity. But I expect Gibson to loosen the reins a bit; not take them off entirely so 30 is a big stretch.

Ian Desmond had a decent season in 2010 in his first full year but he tired down the stretch. The bigger problem was his butcher-like play in the field with 34 errors. He needs to turn that around if he wants to stay on the field full-time. If he does, he has the potential for a 15/20 season. Just recognize that’s a ceiling and don’t pay for it.

Tier 4:

Starlin Castro acquitted himself fairly well in his rookie season. On the plus side he had a .300 BA in 463 AB. But every yang has its yin and Castro’s was the second worst fielding percentage at his position and a 56% SB success rate. Both numbers need to increase for him to remain a viable fantasy player. Castro will provide very little in the power department.

That thump you heard was Jason Bartlett falling off the cliff in 2010 after his career year in 2009. He followed up 14/66/90/30/.320 with 4/47/71/11/.254 after many a fantasy player paid for the former. Excuse me but I just threw up in my mouth after reminding myself I was one of those who overpaid in at last one league. While his 2009 power certainly was a mirage, everyone should now realize that’s not what you should be paying for. The reality is he’s one of those throw-back shortstops with some speed and a middling BA rather than a new-age shortstop who can hit 15-20 HR along with good steals and BA.

Tier 5:

Miguel Tejada signed a one-year contract with the San Francisco Giants last November. I suspect the signing at the time was as much the possibility of a replacement for the disappointing Pablo Sandoval as it was to play shortstop. Gone are the years of 25 HR with a .300+ BA. Look for mid-teens HR with a .275 BA and you won’t be disappointed. In fact, that’s not all that bad this deep into the pool.

The St. Louis Cardinals may regret signing Ryan Theriot to a new contract as he hasn’t been good so far this spring. He performed poorly for the Los Angeles Dodgers last year after being traded from the Chicago Cubs and you have to wonder if he continues that this year will the Cardinals keep him around or at the very least keep him on the field. He won’t hit many HR but his value lies in BA and SB. The BA was bad with the Dodgers and in camp so far this year. His SB success rate has been 66% since 2008 and you have to wonder if his attempts won’t be curtailed if that pace continues.

The Rest:

Yuniesky Betancourt being traded to the Milwaukee Brewers is a good thing for potential owners in that if they want to replace him they’ll have to go outside the organization for a viable option since Alcides Escobar went the other way in the same trade. What he does provide is some HR pop and counting stats as long as he stays on the field but nothing in the way of BA or SB.

Alex Gonzalez had his option picked up by the Atlanta Braves in November. He did hit 23 HR last year but it came in almost 600 AB. That’s not too bad but it’s the first time since 2004 he’s had over 500 in a season. He does have some power but it comes with a useless BA and the counting stats will be dependent on how many AB he actually gets. I wouldn’t want to be the one to take that gamble but if you have to dig this low, what the heck.

Edgar Renteria is battling Paul Janish for the shortstop spot in Cincinnati but has taken a lot of time at 2B this spring. He’s certainly not going to supplant Brandon Phillips so this might mean he is being groomed for a utility role. Either way, he won’t provide much help in any area although playing in Cincinnati should give him a little bit of a bump.

Paul Janish may win the starting SS spot for the Reds but that won’t help you much on your fantasy team. The fact he is a very good defender doesn’t do anything for anyone except the pitchers he’s playing behind.

Clint Barmes was traded after the season from the Colorado Rockies to the Houston Astros. Normally, a trade away from Coors Field has a bad effect on hitter’s stats but Minute Maid Park is a good place to wind up. Barmes has some pop but will have the low BA that often comes with non-elite players that can hit some out of the park.

The top of the second base rankings in the National league are in a lot of flux due to injuries and injury concerns. There has been more flip-flopping of the best players at this position than probably any other infield spot in the mocks I have seen. There doesn’t seem to be a clear cut number one choice among the candidates and the one anybody might take is dependent, to a great degree, upon the amount of risk they might want to take.

I have seen many fantasy players pass on the top few players and wait to grab someone in the next grouping. But, if you choose to do that, you better make sure you get one from the second tier because the drop off after that is pretty steep.

Tier 1:

Chase Utley was easily the top 2B in the NL for the past few years. He missed a bunch of time last year with a sprained thumb and is now suffering from patella tendinitis of the right knee and isn’t scheduled to play in a spring training game yet. We have probably seen his last 30/20 season and don’t know if we’ll get full season numbers. Utley has come back to the pack and isn’t the slam dunk #1 that he was – that’s why it’s close at the top.

In the past four seasons, Brandon Phillips has had two 20/20 seasons and one 30/30 season and is again a legitimate 20/20 threat for 2011 with a usable BA. He was the Reds’ leadoff hitter but isn’t the prototypical player for that spot. Hitting leadoff limited his RBI opportunities but he did score 100 runs. Cincinnati will be trying Drew Stubbs in the leadoff spot but if that doesn’t work out Phillips will again be at the top of the order.

Rickie Weeks is the last and youngest player in this tier. He had his first full healthy season in 2010 and hit 29 HR with 83 RBI and 112 runs scored. The only complaint was just 11 stolen bases which was more the byproduct of Ken Macha limiting the running game. Ron Roenicke will take some of the reins off this year and a 30/20 season is possible if he manages to stay on the field again.

Tier 2:

Dan Uggla put up his fourth straight year of 30+ HR in 2010 this time with a .287 BA that was fueled by a .334 BABIP. The move to Turner Field should at the very least enable him to maintain his 30 HR production albeit with an average more in line with his career .263 rather than last year’s anomaly. He’s still in his peak power years so the HR total should be a given.

Kelly Johnson bounced back and had a good campaign with Arizona after a disappointing 2009 in Atlanta. It was even better than good as he had a breakout season with 26 HR and 13 SB. He even managed a .284 BA to go along with it. Johnson's definitely a 20/15 possibility with a batting average in the .275-.280 range.

Martin Prado has added value as a multi-position player. He won’t have 1B eligibility going into this year like he had going into 2010 but he’ll still qualify at 2B and 3B to start with in standard leagues and should add OF in the first month of the season. His other assets are double digit HR power as well as a .300 BA.

Danny Espinosa provided a power burst for the Washington Nationals with six HR in only 103 AB last year. However, it came with a BA just a bit over the Mendoza Line. He had hand surgery in the off season but has been fine to go this year. With a full season of work, he is a definite 20/20 candidate although that will come with a BA just over .250.

Neil Walker was a nice surprise for the Pittsburgh Pirates when he was called up in May 2010. He went on to play in 110 games with 12 HR and a .296 BA. In a full season he very well could hit 15 HR with double digit steals and a respectable BA in the .270 range. Just don’t expect a repeat of the near .300 average as he didn’t show he could do that in the minor leagues.

Tier 3:

Freddy Sanchez had off season shoulder surgery but it isn’t expected to hinder him going into this season. The shoulder limited him to seven HR in 111 games last year. His ceiling will be low double digit HR with a good batting average.

Juan Uribe still qualifies at 2B, 3B and SS in standard leagues and this is his biggest asset along with the possibility of hitting 20 HR. Just expect a .250-.260 BA and you won’t be disappointed.

Omar Infante was traded from the Atlanta Braves to the Florida Marlins and his limited power will suffer even more. He has never hit double digit HR in his career and that is certainly highly unlikely with the Marlins. He doesn’t offer much in the way of speed either. What he does do is offer 2B, 3B and OF eligibility along with a BA near the .300 mark.

Skip Schumaker didn’t do many things well last year. He didn’t crack 70 runs scored; only hit 5 HR and stole 5 bases; and had a useless .265 BA. He’ll only have a handful of HR and SB this year also but should see the average rebound to something closer to his career .291. The main reason he’s here is he has a full-time job - at least for the start of the year.

Blake DeWitt will start at 2B for the Chicago Cubs but will have to do enough to hold off Jeff Baker. He is capable of low double digit HR power but won’t help you much in the other categories.

Ty Wigginton will qualify for 1B, 2B, and 3B going into the season and Colorado will use him as a super utility man at nearly every position on the field. He may end up as a replacement for Todd Helton at some point if the latter suffers an injury. Wigginton likely won’t see 20 HR again, but something in the mid teens is certainly possible.

Orlando Hudson signed a two-year contract with the San Diego Padres this past December. He doesn’t provide much with single digit HR and SB totals. The BA isn’t as attractive as it once was as he hit .268 last year and will likely be his ceiling now.

Bill Hall was signed by the Houston Astros to a one-year deal and will be their second baseman but will also qualify in the OF. Hall is still capable of 20 HR power if he gets the at-bats but it will come with a serious batting average drain.

Eric Young, Jr. suffered a stress fracture of his right leg last year and it seriously curtailed his playing time. He’s still slowly coming back from the injury and could start the season in AAA. Young has 50 SB potential, he just needs the playing time to prove it.

The Rest:

Jeff Keppinger had foot surgery and will likely miss the start of the regular season. He was the full-time 2B for the Houston Astros after the release of Kaz Matsui but won’t be a starter this year which is fine because he doesn’t offer much of anything.

Jeff Baker will qualify at 2B and 3B to start the season but won’t be the regular at any position. He’ll be limited to fill-in duty and won’t provide much help for fantasy players.

Luis Castillo is entering the last year of his four-year contract with the New York Mets and they can’t wait for him to be gone. If they can find anyone to take him off their hands, they’ll do it. He lost a bunch of time in 2010 to various injuries and just about the only thing he has to offer this year is double digit SB if he gets enough playing time.

Every year the catcher position is very shallow. This year many are talking about how scarce third base talent is. When you look at it more closely, it becomes quite evident that third base in the National League is especially bereft of players at the top of the rankings.

The person at the top of the hot corner in the National League is David Wright of the New York Mets. Much was written and said about Wright’s power outage after moving into CitiField as he managed only 10 dingers and 72 RBI in 144 games in 2009.

As a result, his stock fell dramatically in 2010 drafts and auctions as many fantasy players shied away from the CitiField effect. For instance, in a 16 team auction I’ve played in for many years he cost $46 in 2009 and $35 in 2010. That’s a 24% discount from one year to the next based on a park factor alone!

When 2010 was over and done with, Wright was back to a more productive 29/103/87/19 with a slight dip in his batting average to .283. The power came back albeit not quite to his 2008 level of 33 HR. The odd thing is, according to MLB park factors at the world-wide leader, it was much harder to go yard in CitiField in 2010 than 2009. Wright hit 5 HR at home in 2009 and 12 at home in 2010. As a result, David Wright will again be the most valuable NL 3B going into the season as it’s perceived that 2009 was an anomaly.

There are another couple of guys that are above the main body of third baseman but not quite in Wright’s class (Tier 1A) so I’ll rank them accordingly:

Tier 1B:

Ryan Zimmerman was off his 2009 production due in main part to injuries. He missed the last 10 games of the year with a strained rib muscle. As a result, he appeared in 15 fewer games and had 85 fewer at bats than the previous season. Even missing the plate appearances he still managed 25 HR and a .307 BA. He’s good to go for 2011.

Tier 1C:

Pablo Sandoval was one of the biggest (literally as well as figuratively) busts in 2010 as his homeruns were cut in half and he lost 60 points from his batting average. Much of the loss was attributed to Kung Fu Panda’s girth. Coming into this spring, Sandoval has dropped nearly 40 pounds from 2010’s season ending 280 pound mark. While still not to be confused with being svelte, the weight loss is significant and a bounce back is looming for 2011.

Tier 2:

Aramis Ramirez missed a large part number of games again in 2010 due to injury but did have 159 more at bats than the previous season. He started off slowly last year once he came back but finished strong the last half of the year to the tune of 25 HR in 124 games. Fantasy owners are hoping he can stay healthy and give them 500+ AB in 2011.

Pedro Alvarez has hit everywhere along the line and didn’t disappoint too much with 16 HR in 347 AB for the Pirates in 2010 although the BA was a bit lower than he showed in the minor leagues. If he gets 500 AB he could be a lock for 25 HR.

Jose Lopez had a great year in 2009 and 2010’s expectations went flying off the radar like a Boeing jet as he underperformed across the board. A trade from Seattle to Coors Field and the Rockies should be all that he needs for a major bounce-back but don’t expect a repeat of 2009.

Casey McGehee burst onto the scene in 2009 with 16 HR and a .301 BA in 355 AB. He followed that up with 23 HR in 610 AB last year although the pace slowed a bit. He has the starting gig to open the season and should be good for another 20 HR.

Tier 3:

Placido Polanco managed another steady if unspectacular season in 2010 even though he missed time to an elbow injury that required off season surgery to remove bone spurs. The elbow feels good and he’s ready to go for another year in a tough Philadelphia lineup.

Chris Johnson was called up last year and got a chance to start at 3B and made the most of it with 11 HR and a .308 BA in 94 games. He has the starting job going into the season and double digit HR with a good BA should be in the cards again. But before that happens he will have to adjust to the way opposing pitchers approach him this year.

Ian Stewart avoided arbitration by signing a one-year contract with Colorado. He missed most of September with an oblique strain which kept him from hitting 20+ HR again. The BA leaves much to be desired but don’t expect more than .260 and you won’t be disappointed.

Chipper Jones suffered through injuries again in 2010 and limped to his worst season in the majors. He had a good career (Mets fans will be hard pressed to admit this) but the power is gone and he’ll struggle to hit .275 this year. Then there’s always the chance he’ll opt to retire if he gets off to a bad start.

Scott Rolen battled injuries again in 2010 but did play in 133 games with a surprising 20 HR. Rolen still has another two years on his current contract but is still an injury risk. Realize this and temper your HR expectations and you’ll be fine.

Casey Blake will again be at 3B for the Los Angeles Dodgers because they don’t have any other options. His ceiling will be mid teens HR with a BA in the .250’s – nothing exciting.

Chase Headley isn’t a real power hitter and hitting in Petco makes it even worse. His best year saw him hit 20 HR in AA ball. If he hits a dozen for you count yourself lucky.

Tier 4:

David Freese won’t have the power numbers you would hope for from this position but will have a decent BA. Another thing against him is he doesn’t seem to have manager Tony LaRussa’s favor. In fact, LaRussa said he hopes to have Freese available four out of six games in a week this year.

Melvin Mora was signed to a two-year deal with the Arizona Diamondbacks. At this point in his career, all he provides is single digit HR with a decent BA. He will struggle for 400 AB.

The Rest:

Mat Gamel will get time at 3B, 1B, LF and RF this spring to get him some plate appearances. Has double digit power potential but has to find the playing time. An emergency option at best for fantasy purposes at this point.

Juan Francisco is in the same boat as Gamel – will struggle for playing time. He has the power to hit the ball out – especially in Cincinnati – but also strikes out a bunch.

Wes Helms is in a battle for the 3B spot for the Marlins. Not much power; not much of an average.

Jorge Cantu was expected to do well in Texas after being traded there last year since he was only two years removed from a 29 HR season. But it turned out he was a bust as he only hit one HR in 98 AB with the Rangers. The San Diego Padres signed him to a one-year contract and he is expected to get minimal plate appearances barring an injury.

The Albert Pujols saga is over…for now. After the deadline imposed by Phat Albert and his agent for a new contract came and passed at noon Wednesday, all negotiation are off until after the season, at least on the surface. Who knows what will continue to go on behind the scenes. If Cardinals management calls Dan Lozano and says look, ‘you were asking for this and we’re prepared to offer something in the ballpark’ would Albert and his agent not listen? I wouldn’t bet on it. So something may eventually get done before the end of the season or even the beginning of the season for that matter.

But in the meantime, Albert is preparing for his eleventh year in the big leagues – all of them, obviously, with the St. Louis Cardinals. Over that time he has averaged an incredible 41-118-123-.331-7. He has easily been the premier baseball player of the past decade.

And nothing is in imminent danger of changing any time soon, let alone this coming season.

As far as ranking the first basemen is concerned, Albert Pujols is in a league all to himself. He is head and shoulders above every other offensive player in MLB. When laying out the tiers, it’s not even like Pujols is in a tier just slightly ahead of the next. There is a big step down from Albert to the next level of players.

Don’t get caught up in the noise that his play will drop off because of the contract thing hanging over his head. Pujols has been nothing but the consummate professional the past ten years and will continue to be in 2011. Don’t be afraid to bid for 40+ HR, 110+ R, 120+ RBI, .320 BA because that is what you’ll get. Take it to the bank. And you can count on double digits SB from the 1B position as a bonus.

Now let’s take a look at the rest of the 1B tiers in the National League:

Tier 2:

Joey Votto is a nice consolation prize if you lose out on Albert Pujols. He’s certainly not in Pujols league but he is a bit above the next level of 1B. He has improved each year in the league and, while he might not hit 40 HR, he will still have mid to upper 30’s power with 100+ R, 100+ RBI and a .320 BA.

Tier 3:

Ryan Howard’s HR power fell off in 2010 and most people (including manager Charlie Manuel) are attributing it to an ankle injury he suffered in August. Howard says it is not quite 100% but a lot better than it was at the end of last year. Look for a bounce back in his power numbers across the board, particularly HR. But remember, it comes with a bunch of strikeouts and a batting average almost 50 points lower than Pujols and Votto.

Prince Fielder just signed a new one-year deal to avoid arbitration and could potentially be a free agent at the end of the year. Given that, he might even be trade bait if the Brewers fall on their face before the trade deadline. In five full seasons, Fielder has never player less than 157 games in any year. He has played the up and down game with the number of homeruns he has hit each season with odd numbered years on the up side of the pendulum. So that bodes well for 2011 if you believe in those kinds of things.

Tier 4:

Carlos Pena is coming over to the National League after signing a one-year contract with the Chicago Cubs. He had a disappointing 2010 for the Tampa Bay Rays as he failed to crack the 30 HR barrier for the first time in four years. He also was below the Mendoza line for BA. Look for the HR power to come back a bit in Wrigley and for the BA to be bad instead of putrid.

Gaby Sanchez finally got to show what he could do on the big stage last year and he acquitted himself well. He’s got 20 HR power with a BA that won’t kill you. Just realize there isn’t a whole lot of upside since he is 27 years old already.

Adam LaRoche is one of those guys that every year seems to sneak up on you with mid 20’s HR and a .270 BA. He should be good for close to another year of ho-hum production after signing a contract to play the next two years for the Washington Nationals.

James Loney isn’t the quintessential 1B as he doesn’t hit many homeruns. His career high was 15 and that was in his first year. He has steadily declined to the point where he hit just ten last year and even saw his BA drop to .267. Look for a little bit of a bounce back but you’re not going to get anywhere near the kind of production you look for in a corner man with him.

Tier 5:

Ike Davis played well enough for the New York Mets in 2010 that he will again get the nod at 1B. He will most likely top out at 20 to 25 HR power with a .270 BA. Decent but not exciting.

Aubrey Huff had resurged in 2010 with the San Francisco Giants. He hit better for the Giants than he did playing for the Baltimore Orioles in Camden Yards if you can believe that. Don’t expect a repeat of 2010.

Freddie Freeman is another rookie the Atlanta Braves will work into their lineup after the successful debut season of Jason Heyward last year. Freeman should develop into mid 20’s HR power but the mid teens will probably be the ceiling for 2011.

Brett Wallace was traded a few times before becoming a Houston Astro and took over for Lance Berkman at 1B after he was traded to the New York Yankees. Wallace’s HR power is still developing but could hit for a decent average as he demonstrated he could hit .300 in the minors.

Lyle Overbay rebounded to 20 HR power with the Toronto Blue Jays last year but don’t be fooled. Expect mid to upper teens with a .260ish BA and you won’t be disappointed.

The Rest:

Todd Helton should still hit for a decent BA but probably not reach double digit HR. Long gone are the seasons of over 30 HR and .320 BA.

Brad Hawpe was a major disappointment last year hitting just nine HR between the Colorado Rockies and Tampa Bay Rays. And now he moves to pitcher friendly Petco Park where he will attempt to fill the very big shoes of Adrian Gonzalez.

Juan Miranda will be given every opportunity to win the starting 1B job in Arizona after being acquired from the New York Yankees but Brandon Allen or even Xavier Nady will be lurking if he fails.

Lance Berkman will not be playing 1B much anymore with some guy named Albert Pujols in front of him. But he still has 1B eligibility although he is just a shell of what he used to be. Still capable of mid teens HR and a .270 BA.

Colorado Rockies – Colorado was an excellent 23 games over .500 at home but the road wasn’t nearly as good to the Rockies as they were 19 games under.500 away from Coors Field. This left the Rockies in third place – nine games out of first.

Colorado’s pitching staff was pretty much middle of the pack in the major leagues. Going into 2011 the starting rotation will be led by Ubaldo Jimenez again. Ubaldo had a breakout year and was in the running for the Cy Young Award. He threw over 200 innings for the second year in a row and had the lowest ERA (2.88) and highest K/9 of his major league career. Jorge De La Rosa only started 20 games in 2010 as he was unable to pitch with a finger injury. His K/9 dropped by 1.03 from 2009 to 2010 although it was still a healthy 8.36. De La Rosa just signed a new two-year contract. Jhoulys Chacin had a coming out party of sorts. He did well with a 1.27 WHIP, 3.28 ERA and 9.04 K/9 but needs to lower his 4.0 BB/9. Aaron Cook walked almost as many (3.67/9) as he struck out (4.37/9) in 2010. Jason Hammel signed a new two-year contract this January and saw his strikeout rate take a jump up for the second year running. However, he’s had only one year in the majors with a BABIP under .334. Felipe Paulino came over to Colorado in a trade with the Houston Astros. He has strikeout potential but also walks way too many.

In the bullpen Huston Street will be back as the closer. He was limited to 20 saves in 2010 due to various injuries. He should be healthy entering this year. Rafael Betancourt (12.85 K/9), Matt Belisle (8.9 K/9, 2.93 ERA), Matt Lindstrom (lost closer’s spot in Houston, now insurance for Huston Street), Franklin Morales (6.28 ERA, 7.53 BB/9 – UGLY), Edgmer Escalona (young with some strikeout potential), Matt Daley (K/9 dropped from 9.71 in 2009 to 6.94 in 2010), and Esmil Rogers (pitched better out of the bullpen than as a starter) make up the rest of the relief corps.

On the infield, Todd Helton and Ty Wigginton likely will split time at 1B with neither an elite option at a position that normally provides HR in bunches - especially at Coors Field. Jose Lopez came to Colorado in a trade with the Seattle Mariners and may be the main option at 2B at the expense of Eric Young Jr. Ian Stewart signed a one-year contract avoiding arbitration and takes his improved .256 BA into 2011 as the third baseman again. Troy Tulowitzki will be the mainstay at SS for the next ten years with his new contract. He managed 27 HR in only 122 games in 2010. Chris Iannetta will be the main backstop with Jose Morales providing the backup.

The outfield will have Seth Smith (needs to get his BA back up) in left, Dexter Fowler (can steal bases but gets caught too many times) in center and Carlos Gonzalez (hits for average, power and steals bases) in right.

Los Angeles Dodgers – The Dodgers dropped 15 games in their win/loss record in 2010 and finished a disappointing fourth, two games under .500 and 12 games out of first place. Out is Joe Torre and in is Don Mattingly as manager.

The Dodgers have a strong starting rotation with Clayton Kershaw, a bona fide ace, at the top. Kershaw exceeded 200 innings and strikeouts in 2010 with a 2.91 ERA. Chad Billingsley has thrown over 190 innings three years running. His strikeout rate has dipped to just over 8.0/9 and he has to watch the number of free passes he issues. Ted Lilly never seems to garner the respect he deserves. He’s not an elite pitcher but very serviceable as a number three. His strikeout rate rebounded to better than a strikeout per inning after he was traded to the Dodgers. He also had a sick 0.991 WHIP with Los Angeles. Hiroki Kuroda has a new one-year contract and will look to build on the success of last year – his overall best in the major leagues. The only complaint has been his strikeout rate but even that was up (7.29/9) in 2010. Jon Garland takes his rubber arm to the Dodgers. He leaves the friendliest confines of Petco Park for the friendly confines of Chavez Ravine. Vicente Padilla was signed to a one-year deal after an injury riddled 2010 season. He’ll serve as insurance at the back end of the rotation.

Jonathan Broxton started 2010 as the closer but was supplanted by Hong-Chih Kuo after he imploded in the second half. He finished the year with a very un-closer-like 1.48 WHIP and 4.04 ERA. Broxton is entering the last year of his contract and needs to be at the top of his game with Kuo still lurking. Kuo was a monster last year finishing with a 0.78 WHIP, 1.20 ERA, and 10.95 K/9. As if that wasn’t good enough, he only surrendered one HR in 60 innings. Kenley Jansen is another reliever who could potentially close out games. In 25 2010 appearances, Jansen had a 1.00 WHIP, 0.67 ERA and 13.67 K/9. On the down side, he also walked 15 in 27 innings. Matt Guerrier comes to the Dodgers from the Minnesota Twins after signing a three-year contract – along with his paltry 5.32/9 strikeout rate. Blake Hawksworth, Jon Link, Travis Schlichting, John Ely, and Ronald Belisario will compete for the remaining bullpen spots.

On the infield, James Loney and his handful of homeruns will be the first baseman. His BA has dipped three years in a row to 2010’s .267. Juan Uribe was signed to a three-year deal and will be at 2B. He had 40 HR in two years with the San Francisco Giants. Lacking other options, Casey Blake will be back at 3B. Rafael Furcal is at SS but has to stay healthy after last year’s 97 game effort. Rod Barajas was signed to a one-year contract to be the catcher with A.J. Ellis providing rest.

Left field has Jay Gibbons and Marcus Thames right now. Matt Kemp is the CF and is coming off a disappointing year although he did hit 28 HR. Right field will be manned by Andre Ethier who broke a finger and lost some of his HR power.

Arizona Diamondbacks – Next to the Pittsburgh Pirates the Diamondbacks won the fewest games in the National League in 2010. The end of the 2010 season saw them 32 games under .500 and 27 games out of first place.

Arizona finished at or near the bottom of the National League in virtually every pitching category that matters and even some that don’t.  With the likes of Joe Saunders (5.44 K/9, 4.25 ERA for Arizona in 2010), Dan Hudson (pitched well for Arizona after being traded from the Chicago White Sox), Ian Kennedy (led the Diamondbacks with nine victories in 2010), Armando Galarraga (near-perfect game in 2010 for the Detroit Tigers), Zach Duke (1.65 WHIP for the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2010), Barry Enright (20 HR, 49 K in 99 innings for Arizona in 2010) for the starting rotation, there figures to be a few highs and a lot of lows in 2011.

J.J. Putz will be the closer after signing a two-year contract going into the 2011 season. He was resurrected last year with the Chicago White Sox after an injury-ridden 2009 with the New York Mets. The run up to Putz in the bullpen will include Sam Demel (acquired in the Conor Jackson trade with the Oakland A’s), David Hernandez (acquired from the Baltimore Orioles in the Mark Reynolds trade), Juan Gutierrez (next in line if Putz falters), Kameron Mickolio (another piece the Orioles gave Arizona), Joe Paterson (a rule 5 pick from the San Francisco Giants), Esmerling Vasquez (9.22 K/9, 6.37 BB/9 in 2010), Jordan Norberto (disappointed in a short big league stint in 2010), Aaron Heilman (avoided arbitration with a one-year deal. Hasn’t started a game since 2005), Zach Kroenke (not overly impressive in the minor leagues).

Juan Miranda came to Arizona from the New York Yankees and stands to get a good amount of time at 1B. Brandon Allen could push him in spring training for time. Kelly Johnson and his 26 2010 HR will again be at 2B. Melvin Mora has a new two-year contract and will help to man 3B. Stephen Drew will be looking to regain the magic of 2008 at SS. The catching duties will be handled by Miguel Montero with Henry Blanco spelling him.

The outfield will feature Xavier Nady, who came back from Tommy John surgery last year, in left. Chris Young and his low BA will be the centerfielder. Justin Upton, hoping to be 100 percent, will be the right fielder.

The National League West was an interesting division last year and, arguably, the most exciting. The San Diego Padres – the biggest surprise in MLB in 2010 – led the division virtually the entire year before they were finally overtaken by the San Francisco Giants in late September. We all know what the Giants went on to do.

San Francisco Giants – The Giants had their best year in 2010 since they ran away with the division title in 2003. While winning the World Series might have come as a surprise to some, the fact that they pitched their way to the championship shouldn’t be a surprise. Pitching was certainly the strong point of the Giants in 2010 as they finished first in the National League in ERA, strikeouts, BAA, and K/9.

The San Francisco starting staff was second in the National League only to the Philadelphia Phillies in innings pitched. So not only did they do very well in many pitching categories, but they also went deep into games. The five starters that finished the 2010 season will be back again this year and, hopefully for Giants fans, many more since four of the five are 28 years old or younger. Barry Zito is the elder statesman at the ripe old age of 32. Tim Lincecum was actually one of my pre-season pans in 2010. Not because I didn’t think he’d be good - just that I didn’t think he’d be as good as 2009 and wasn’t going to pay the price it would take to roster him. And – a little selfish pat on the back - I turned out to be right as his 2010 ERA was nearly a run higher than 2009. He also allowed almost double the number of HR (18) and his K/9 dropped under 10.0 for the first time in two seasons. Matt Cain led the team in innings pitched and had the lowest BB/9 and WHIP of his career. Jonathan Sanchez has lowered his ERA and WHIP four years running but still walks too many at nearly 4 ½ per nine innings. Madison Bumgarner was called up and made 18 starts for the Giants in 2010. He did well as he pitched to a 3.00 ERA even though his K/9 was a pedestrian 6.97/9.

The bullpen will again be led by Brian Wilson who finished with 48 saves and 93 strikeouts in 74 2/3 innings. The rest of the bullpen will consist of Jeremy Affeldt (regressed in 2010 thanks in large part to a .349 BABIP), Sergio Romo (10.16 K/9; .968 WHIP), Javier Lopez (pitched extremely well in limited appearances after being traded from the Pittsburgh Pirates), Santiago Casilla (a strikeout per inning and sub 2.00 ERA), Dan Runzler (only allowed 1 HR the whole season while striking out 10.19/9), and Ramon Ramirez (beneficiary of a .164 BABIP).

On the infield, Aubrey Huff will be at 1B after the Giants re-signed him to a new two year contract with a team option for 2013. He had the second best power year of his career. If Huff spends any considerable time in the OF, that will open the door for Brandon Belt to possibly get called up. Freddy Sanchez is coming off his second consecutive pre-season shoulder surgery and will again be the second baseman. Pablo Sandoval will return at 3B and will be looking to return to his 2009 form. Kun Fu Panda saw his BA drop more than 50 points and his HR power cut in half in 2010. Miguel Tejada was signed to a one-year contract to be the SS, but is a shell of his former self. Buster Posey was called up in May and had a successful rookie campaign. In 406 AB he hit 18 HR and had a .305 BA. He’ll again be behind the plate for San Francisco.

The outfield will have speedster (26 SB) Andres Torres in center. Mark DeRosa (coming off wrist surgery again) and Cody Ross (claimed off waivers from the Florida Marlins and eventual NLCS MVP) will get most of the time at the corner outfield spots. Pat Burrell, Aaron Rowand and Nate Schierholtz figure to get time in the outfield as well.

San Diego Padres – San Diego snuck up on most people as they finished 2010 with their best record since 2007. After seasons of 63 and 75 wins, no one expected last year’s 90 wins and that they were actually in first place for most of the season before fading a bit down the stretch. The Padres did it on the strength of their pitching – Petco Park had a lot to do with it – as they were second in the league in ERA, strikeouts, K/9 and BAA. They led or were tied for the lead in WHIP, OBP and SLG.

Mat Latos pitched his first full season last year and finished with 184 innings. That was a pretty significant jump from the previous year. I would not expect a repeat of that 2.92 ERA, but pitching in PETCO does have its advantages. Tim Stauffer spent most of 2010 pitching out of the bullpen. He doesn’t strikeout a lot of batters, but does limit his bases on balls and will be in the mix for a starting spot this spring. Clayton Richard led the Padres in innings pitched last year. He wasn’t overly impressive with a 1.41 WHIP and only 6.83 K/9 but did do much better at home than on the road. Wade LeBlanc started the 2010 season off nicely but hit a wall in August. His 1.42 WHIP particularly wasn’t good considering his penchant for giving up the long ball (1.48/9). It would be even worse if his home park wasn’t PETCO. Cory Luebke got a taste of the big leagues last year (17 2/3 innings) and managed to strikeout better than a batter per inning although that is a bit higher than his minor league numbers which would put him in the 7.0 – 8.0 range. He also managed to allow three HR in that handful of innings. He will be competing for a starting spot this spring. Dustin Moseley was non-tendered by the New York Yankees and San Diego gave him a one-year contract. At 28 years old don’t look for much improvement on his career 1.52 WHIP and 5.28 ERA – especially since his career strikeout rate is just over 5.0/9. Aaron Harang was signed to a one-year deal also. The bad news is last year’s numbers don’t exactly point towards a resurrection of his career. The good news is he’ll be pitching in his hometown so he won’t have to commute to work anymore.

Heath Bell signed a one-year contract and will be back as the closer. He excelled in the role last year with 47 saves and 11.06 K/9. Setting him up in the bullpen will be Mike Adams (1.76 ERA; 9.86 K/9), Chad Qualls (absolutely atrocious with a 7.32 ERA between Arizona and Tampa in 2010), Luke Gregerson (pitched very well with a 0.83 WHIP and 10.23 K/9), Ernesto Frieri (pitched well in 31 2/3 innings with 11.65 K/9), and Joe Thatcher (outstanding 6.43 K:BB with 11.57 K/9).

Brad Hawpe and Jorge Cantu stand to split time at 1B this year. Both are coming off bad seasons and hitting in PETCO will only hurt them further. Orlando Hudson just signed a two-year contract with the Padres to play second base. He is also coming off a down year. Jason Bartlett also was just signed to a two-year contract and is coming off a down year. Chase Headley is the only returning Padre on the infield as the rest has been revamped entirely. Headley isn’t an elite corner man and may see the bench a bit with Cantu getting some AB’s there. Nick Hundley should be the catcher the majority of the time with Gregg Zaun and Rob Johnson in the system as backup. Neither of these three should be fantasy relevant.

Ryan Ludwick, Cameron Maybin and Will Venable will be in the outfield from left to right. This is a weak hitting group – not a lot of pop.

Houston Astros – Houston still managed to finish ten games under .500 last year – 15 games out of first place. Allowing more runs than your team scores is never a recipe for success and the Astros were very adept at this in 2010 as they had the third worst run differential in the National League.

The Astros’ starting rotation actually wasn’t terrible in 2010 as they were seventh in the NL in ERA; second in strikeouts; fourth in BAA; and eighth in WHIP. Not stellar, but, like I said, not terrible. Wandy Rodriguez, just signed to a new three-year deal, will be back at the top of the rotation. Wandy started off very slowly in 2010 but managed to finish with a 3.60 ERA from a high of 6.10 after his second start. Brett Myers had a big resurgence in 2010 after 2009 was lost to a hip injury. He had a solid ERA and WHIP even if the K/9 slipped a bit. It was also the first year he topped 200 innings since 2005. J.A. Happ came to the Astros in the trade that sent Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia. He finished with a serviceable WHIP and ERA and even improved his strikeout rate. Bud Norris can eat innings and has tantalizing strikeout potential (9.25 K/9 in 153 innings in 2010), but he also walked 4.5/9. Ryan Rowland-Smith signed a one year contract with Houston but I don’t see him making an impact given extreme fly-ball tendencies combined with poor strikeout skills in a non-pitchers park. Aneury Rodriguez came to Houston from Tampa in the Rule-5 draft. He may not have amounted to much in the deep Tampa system but could get amount to something with the Astros. Nelson Figueroa has a chance to make the rotation after starting ten games last year for Houston. He is, however, nearly 37 years old and his sub 4.00 ERA was fueled by a .279 BABIP. Lance Pendleton was picked from the New York Yankees in last year’s Rule-5 draft, but if he sticks it will most likely be as 25^th man on the roster/mop-up/long relief role.

Brandon Lyon should again be the closer since Matt Lindstrom was traded to the Colorado Rockies. Lyon managed 20 saves for the Astros after taking the job from Lindstrom. His results were buoyed by a 0.23 HR/9 rate as opposed to striking out many hitters (6.23/9). After Lyon there’s Wilton Lopez (1.06 WHIP, 2.96 ERA in 2010), Mark Melancon (obtained from the Yankees in the Lance Berkman deal – managed a 9.87 K/9 with Houston and kept the ball in the park), Wesley Wright (1.51 WHIP not good for future success), Fernando Abad (lefty who pitched well at Houston in 2010 but in very limited appearances), Jeff Fulchino (2009’s 1.18 WHIP was 2010’s 1.58; coming off elbow surgery), Henry Villar (only 23 years old but not much major league experience and not much of a pedigree),and  Alberto Arias (major shoulder surgery in 2010).

On the infield, Brett Wallace will start the year at 1B. He will have to hit quite a bit closer to the .300 potential he displayed in the minor leagues rather than the .222 he put up in 144 at bats last year if he wants to stick. At 2B will be Bill Hall who was signed to a one-year contract by Houston after the Boston Red Sox failed to offer him salary arbitration. Hall’s BA dropped off last year, but he still provided 18 HR in 344 AB. It is quite possible he ends up in a platoon in the long run. Chris Johnson was a pleasant surprise last year at 3B after replacing Pedro Feliz. But at 26 years old, I wouldn’t expect the ceiling to be too high. Rounding out the infield will be Clint Barmes who, at 31 years old and having two consecutive seasons of a sub-.250 BA, should be way down the list for fantasy purposes. The catching duties will be handled by Jason Castro and Humberto Quintero with Castro getting the better of the playing time.

Around the outfield will be Carlos Lee in left, Michael Bourn in center and Hunter Pence in right. The power has been slowly going down for Lee but the BA took a 50 point nosedive for Lee last year. Approaching 35 years old, his elite years are gone. Bourn should again have a decent BA will almost zero HR and over 50 SB. Pence got off to a bad start last year but bounced back to put up pretty good numbers across the board.

Chicago Cubs – The Cubs regressed to a disappointing 12 games under .500 last year and a second to last place finish in the NL Central. This after four consecutive years over the .500 mark and will be looking to get back to that level of play.

The Cubs pitching staff was near the bottom of the league in team ERA and will obviously have to give up fewer runs if they want to improve. Ryan Dempster will lead the rotation. He is coming off his third consecutive season of 200+ innings. His strikeout rate bounced back nicely last year to the point of almost a strikeout per inning. Look for much of the same this year. Newly acquired Matt Garza will be looking to get his strikeout rate back up in the National League after it dipped last year. The Cubs are banking on him stepping up a notch not having to pitch in the American League East anymore. Randy Wells will be looking to improve on a disappointing 2010 campaign after his nice 2009 season. The strikeout rate was up last year to 6.67/9 but still not anything great. Carlos Silva lost time to injury and a heart problem last year. He wound up with his best year since 2005. It’s not something he should be expected to build upon. Carlos Zambrano was demoted to the bullpen and then had a meltdown after a bad inning and was subsequently suspended. When he returned, he pitched to the tune of a 1.41 ERA down the stretch. The Cubs hope he’s matured some. Thomas Diamond was DFA’d after spending many years in the Texas Rangers system. The Cubs claimed him and hope he sheds his injury prone tag.

Carlos Marmol broke out with a 38 save season last year. The only blemish on a record that included a 0.12 HR/9 rate and 15.99 K/9 rate was his propensity for walking hitters to the tune of 6.03/9. Coming before him out of the pen will be Kerry Wood (lights out for the Yankees in a setup role), Sean Marshall (much more effective out of the bullpen than as a starter for the Cubs), Casey Coleman (didn’t strikeout many and walked too many), Marcos Mateo (nice strikeout rate mitigated by six HR in only 21 2/3 innings), Andre Cashner (minor league success didn’t translate well to Chicago last year), Jeff Samardzija (GM Jim Hendry has a serious man crush on him), Todd Wellemeyer (just signed a minor league deal), James Russell (bad case of gopheritis in 2010), Justin Berg (hasn’t demonstrated anything worthwhile  - even in the minor leagues).

The infield will consist of newly signed Carlos Pena at 1B (HR and strikeouts galore), Blake DeWitt and/or Jeff Baker at 2B, Aramis Ramirez (hoping for a healthy season) at 3B and Starlin Castro (who acquitted himself well last year as a rookie) at SS. Geovany Soto (who bounced back nicely after a disappointing 2009) will catch and Koyie Hill (blech) will back him up with Wellington Castillo waiting in the wings.

The ageing Alfonso Soriano (still has some pop) will again be the mainstay in LF with the plain vanilla Marlon Byrd in CF. Tyler Colvin (coming back from a collapsed lung after a piece from a broken bat speared him) will lose time in RF to Kosuke Fukudome unless the Cubs can trade the latter.

Pittsburgh Pirates – What can you say? Eighteen consecutive losing seasons; last sniffed the playoffs in 1992; 11 times out of the last 18 seasons finished more than 20 games out of first; last World Series appearance 1979 (yippee – they won); coming off an abysmal 105 loss season.

The Pirates pitching staff were worst in the National League with a nice, even 5.00 ERA, 1.49 WHIP and robust .282 BAA. Make that worst in the major leagues in those categories! They enter 2011 with the likes of Kevin Correia (1.49 WHIP and 5.40 ERA pitching out of Petco Park last year), Scott Olsen (free agent signing coming off a season with shoulder problems), James McDonald (pitched well for Pittsburgh after being traded from the Los Angeles Dodgers), Charlie Morton (has not justified the man crush the Pirates front office has on him), Paul Maholm (three straight years of declining ERA, WHIP and K/9), and Ross Ohlendorf (missed time in 2010 after being hit in head by batted ball; never realized potential in the Yankees system).

Joel Hanrahan (outstanding 12.92 K/9) and Evan Meek (1.05 WHIP, 2.14 ERA) will compete for the closer’s role. Chris Resop (pitched will for the Pirates after being claimed off waivers from Atlanta), Jeff Karstens (another Yankee reclamation project), Jose Veras (yes, another ex-Yankee), Daniel McCutchen (hasn’t worked out as a starter), Brad Lincoln (showed he wasn’t big league ready), and Justin Thomas (not big league ready in 2010 either) are the candidates for the middle relief.

Lyle Overbay (free agent signing) was added and figures to be the mainstay at 1B, though he may be platooned against some tough lefties by Steve Pearce or Ryan Doumit. Neil Walker will be at 2B with his surprising 2010 campaign. Super prospect Pedro Alvarez was called up in 2010 to play 3B and flashed his power potential with 16 HR in 347 AB and will again be at the hot corner. Ronny Cedeno is slated to start at SS again. Chris Snyder and Ryan Doumit figure to split time behind the plate.

The outfield will feature 21-year old Jose Tabata (.299 BA in rookie season) in left, speedster Andrew McCutchen (33 swipes to go along with a .286 BA) in center and 2009 darling Garrett Jones in right. Jones’ 2010 HR output was identical to 2009’s 21 round trippers but in not quite double the AB. His BA also fell from .293 to .247 in 2010. Matt Diaz signed a two year deal with the Pirates and figures to get some of the OF playing time as well.

This week we move on to the National League Central where the status quo wasn’t the status quo in 2010 as the division had a winner other than the St. Louis Cardinals or Chicago Cubs for the first time since Houston finished first in 2001.

Cincinnati Reds – The Reds won the Central Division title for the first time since 1995. They also were above the .500 mark for the first time since 2000 and went from six games under .500 the year before to 20 games over .500 last year. Cincinnati succeeded in sneaking up on some people last year but they won’t be a secret this year.

The Cincinnati starters improved their ERA just about one half run from 2009. Returning this year will be Johnny Cueto (who led the team in strikeouts with 138); Bronson Arroyo (the team leader in innings pitched and wins); Edinson Volquez (made 12 big league starts in 2010 after Tommy John surgery); Homer Bailey (who lowered his BB/9 and raised his K/9 in 2010). Also in the mix will be Travis Wood and Mike Leake. Leake performed well early in the year but pitched to a 6.91 ERA in the second half while Wood made 17 starts in 2010 and pitched well. Wood and Leake stand to battle with Bailey for the last two spots in the rotation.

Closer Francisco Cordero will be back to finish games. He converted 40 of 48 save attempts in 2010 but there are some chinks in the armor. Cordero walked almost 4.5 batters per nine while his strikeout rate has shrunk each year from 12.22/9 in 2007 to 7.31/9 in 2010. Cordero will be backed up by a bullpen in which the candidates are Aroldis Chapman, Logan Ondrusek, Bill Bray, Nick Masset, Sam LeCure, Jordan Smith, Carlos Fisher, and Matt Maloney. Chapman, the much hyped Cuban defector, lived up to all the noise with his fastball that hit 105 mph at times as he struck out nearly 13 batters per nine innings. Masset led the team in appearances in 2010 and was just under a 10 K/9. Bray returned from Tommy John surgery and is another strikeout specialist with 9.53/9. Fisher fanned just under 8.5/9 but also walked more than 5.0/9 in limited appearances.

Cincinnati’s offense was a machine in 2010. They led the National League in R, H, HR, TB, RBI, BA, SLG and OPS. The Reds were led by 1B and NL MVP Joey Votto who was rewarded by the team with a new three-year contract worth $38 million. He will be joined on the infield by 25/25 threat Brandon Phillips at 2B (who was slowed by a wrist injury in 2010), Scott Rolen at 3B (hampered by a few ailments last year and likely to continue that trend). Newly signed World Series MVP Edgar Renteria will battle for time at SS with Paul Janish. Ryan Hanigan and Ramon Hernandez will again split time behind home plate.

The major players in the outfield will be Jonny Gomes in left, Drew Stubbs in center and Jay Bruce in right. Gomes is a good bet to platoon with Fred Lewis who was signed as a free agent. Others looking for playing time will be Chris Heisey and Jeremy Hermida.

St. Louis Cardinals – Many people chose the Cardinals to again win the National League Central division last year but were disappointed when the Reds bested them by five games in the standings. St. Louis has their work cut out for them if they are to finish ahead of Cincinnati this year and a big key for them will be their pitching staff.

St. Louis led the NL in starting pitching ERA in 2010. Chris Carpenter (2010 team leader with 235 innings pitched) and Adam Wainwright (led Cardinal starters with 8.32 K/9, 1.05 WHIP and 2.42 ERA) will again man the top of the rotation. They will be followed by Jaime Garcia (2010 ROY candidate coming back from 2008 Tommy John surgery who had a stellar season), Jake Westbrook (6.60 K/9 in his first NL season was easily the best of his career), and Kyle Lohse (limited to 18 starts in 2010 due to a forearm injury).

Ryan Franklin will again be at the back end of the bullpen closing out games for the Cards. He has 65 saves in the past two years but has been doing it with a K/9 just a tad over 6.0 and a BABIP lower than .270 those seasons. The rest of the relievers consist of Jason Motte, Mitchell Boggs, Kyle McClellan, Fernando Salas, Brian Tallet and Trever Miller. Motte and Salas led the team with a K/9 of 9.29 and 8.51 respectively while the others fall into the 5.50 – low 7.0 range. McClellan (68) and Boggs (61) led the team in appearances in 2010.

Some fantasy players were probably disappointed as Albert Pujols only hit .312 on for the 2010 season. But Phat Albert finished with 42/115/118/14 as the rest of his line – not too shabby. He will, once again, lead the Cardinals hitters and is entering a contract year in which he has given St. Louis a deadline of the start of spring training for a new contract. He will be joined on the infield by Skip Schumaker at 2B, Ryan Theriot at SS and David Freese at 3B. After three seasons in which he hit over .300, Schumaker dropped to .265 and didn’t contribute much anywhere else. Ryan the Riot saw his BA drop to .270 last year after seasons of .307 and .284 with the Chicago Cubs. Freese gets the 3B job by default since prospect Zach Cox likely needs time to work on his defense in the minors. Yadier Molina will again be the mainstay at catcher for the Cardinals in 2011.

Newly signed Lance Berkman will man RF after putting up easily the worst numbers in his career in a season split between the Houston Astros and New York Yankees. Colby Rasmus will again be in CF but caution is advised as he struck out 53 more times in ten fewer AB in 2010 compared to 2009. He also was the beneficiary of a .358 BABIP but is still young enough to improve overall. Matt Holliday will be in LF and saw his HR total tick up a bit in 2010 and didn’t have the gaudy BA he had with St. Louis in 2009. Likely gone are the Coors induced years of mid 30’s power.

Milwaukee Brewers – After their wild card year of 2008, the Brew Crew regressed to sub-.500 seasons in 2009 and 2010. Much of the blame can be attributed to the pitching staff which had the third worst ERA and BAA in the National League.

The Brewers addressed this issue when they traded for Zack Greinke. Greinke regressed from his 2009 Cy Young winning season last year but the move to Milwaukee and the National League should go a long way to bring him closer to his 2009 numbers again. With the addition of Greinke, Yovani Gallardo will no longer have to be the top of the rotation guy and will slot in nicely as a number two after putting up consecutive seasons of 200 strikeouts in 185 innings. At only 24 years of age, Gallardo could have some more upside in him especially in terms of WHIP and ERA. Shaun Marcum, Randy Wolf and probably Chris Narveson will follow Greinke and Gallardo in the starting rotation. The addition of Marcum in a trade with the Toronto Blue Jays will further bolster the Brewers rotation as he was pretty effective in the tough AL East after coming back from Tommy John surgery as evidenced by career bests in K/9 (7.60) and WHIP (1.15). Wolf now slots down to a number four and will best serve Milwaukee in 2010 as an innings eater who keeps them in games. Narveson projects to round out the starting rotation – the Brewers could do better but they could also do worse. Manny Parra could also get another shot at the fifth spot too.

With the official retirement of Trevor Hoffman, John Axford will again take the closers job – not that he wouldn’t have gotten it anyway the way he performed after getting the role last May. The only blemish was his 4.19 BB/9 but he had higher BB rates throughout his minor league years. If he can get this under control even at the expense of losing a little off his 11.79 K/9 rate – look out. The rest of the bullpen will need to be pared down a bit with many candidates – Takashi Saito (coming off a shoulder injury but still striking out better than 11/9 at age 40), Zach Braddock (another 11 K/9 guy but a lot younger at 23), Manny Parra (can strike them out in bunches but gives up hits and walks in bunches), Kameron Loe (groundball inducer who had a nice year with 1.18 WHIP and 2.78 ERA; second on team in appearances), Mike McClendon (youngster who has the ability to strikeout a batter/inning), Mark Rogers (yet another young pitcher capable of striking out a batter/inning), Justin James (a crap shoot out of the Independent League who pitched four innings for the Oakland A’s in 2010), Pat Egan (a Rule 5 pick from the Baltimore Orioles), LaTroy Hawkins (38 years old and coming off late season shoulder surgery – not a good combination), Brandon Kintzler (11.05 K/9 and 4.91 BB/9 in seven 2010 innings – it was the best of time; it was the worst of times), and Sean Green (limited to nine innings with the New York Mets in 2010 due to a fractured rib).

Prince Fielder – the ink still not dry on his new one-year contract – will again anchor the offense and be at 1B. He is coming off a subpar year in which he only hit 32 HR with a .261 BA. Rickie Weeks will be at 2B and is coming off the best season of his career although he only stole 11 bases. But he did manage to play 160 games which were by far the most of any year in his career. Yuniesky Betancourt gets the SS job by default because the Brewers don’t have anyone else since he came over in the Greinke deal that sent Alcides Escobar to Kansas City. Casey McGehee will man 3B once again after two seasons in which he has done enough to hold onto the job. Jonathan Lucroy will be the main man behind the plate with George Kottaras spelling him.

Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez and Corey Hart will be in the outfield from left to right. Braun and Hart are givens but the light hitting Gomez could be pushed a bit by Chris Dickerson who is really the only alternative since Lorenzo Cain was included in the Greinke trade.