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On Jaime Garcia, Marco Gonzales and the Cardinals Rotation PDF Print E-mail
Articles of Configuration
Written by Brian Walton   
Saturday, 30 May 2015 00:00

Given my day job of covering the St. Louis Cardinals system, I often receive fantasy-related questions about the team from friends. They are frequently industry writers and analysts with whom I may work and even play in leagues against – something I call coopetition (not to be confused with collusion!)

In an earlier article, I discussed how I gave my honest and complete assessment of Marco Gonzales’ injury situation to a friend/competitor. Though my initial offer to acquire the lefty to back up my optimism was turned down, I ended up getting him in a trade a few weeks later.

Since, Gonzales suffered a setback at Triple-A Memphis, leaving me much less optimistic. The problem area has shifted from pectoral muscle soreness to the shoulder. Even though the injury is said to be non-structural, any time a pitcher has a shoulder problem, red flags should go up. In this case, Gonzales will be parked for three weeks, when another assessment will be made.

That leaves the Cardinals rotation spot vacated by Adam Wainwright firmly in the hands of another lefty – oft-injured Jaime Garcia. No stranger to shoulder problems himself, Garcia was activated last week. I was at Citi Field to see his debut in person.

Perhaps my interest level was piqued a bit as my pitching-starved National League Tout Wars squad is at or near the bottom of the league in most pitching categories. As a result, I activated Garcia in Tout ahead of his actual removal from the Cardinals’ disabled list.

Other than control issues at the start of innings, it was a very strong outing for a season debut. Garcia still has his late movement on pitches. He then went from five walks in his first start to none in his second and picked up his first win in almost two seasons.

Even before Gonzales’ setback, the rotation berth was Garcia’s to lose. He has both the contract ($9+ million this season) and the past success to secure that level of commitment from the club.

I believe that Garcia will remain in the rotation unless/until he gets hurt again or for some unknown reason, his performance falls off a cliff. My sense is that there is little middle ground with Garcia. He is either healthy and pitching well or is hurt. As a result, whatever starts he gives should be good.

I cannot affirm how many starts that will be, however, given the ongoing injury risk.

If Gonzales can come back this season and perform well at Triple-A, he will definitely be back with St. Louis in 2015. The only question is the role as there are a number of still-moving parts to consider.

When healthy, Gonzales is clearly next in line for a rotation spot with St. Louis. While Lance Lynn and John Lackey are innings-eaters, the other three in the current starting five have had durability questions – Garcia, Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha.

In his first extended duty in the rotation, Martinez has been up and down. While that is not surprising coming from most 23-year-olds, St. Louis is in the midst of a pennant race and cannot afford to carry a struggling starter down the stretch.

With setup man Jordan Walden injured, the club does not have a clear answer for Martinez’ old eighth-inning gig to date in 2015. Though an acquisition via trade of an Edward Mujica or John Axford-like arm is more likely - a mid-season move the Cards have done in the past - there could be temptation to push Martinez back into the pen if no suitable answer for the eighth can be found.

Speaking of late-inning relief, has anyone else noticed how Trevor Rosenthal has evolved from a shaky closer in 2014 to one of the most reliable and consistent in 2015? One reason why is his delivery. Once a successful starter in the Minors and likely still harboring a desire to play that role, Rosenthal worked from both the windup and the stretch.

After film analysis, it appeared that the rushing and imbalance that plagued him last season was more prevalent when he was winding up. We have seen the 100 percent stretch-pitching Rosenthal apparently turn the corner in 2015.

Bringing this discussion full circle, the worst case for owners of a healthy Gonzales is that the Cardinals would call Marco up to rejoin the bullpen - as he did late last season. It doesn’t hurt that regular lefties Randy Choate and Kevin Siegrist have been inconsistent.

No matter the role, I would be very surprised if Gonzales remains in the Minors until September - unless he has another physical setback. He still has a long way to go to earn the reputation of Garcia, however.

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 17-year history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.

 

Last Updated on Saturday, 30 May 2015 08:47
 
Striking While the Iron is Hottest PDF Print E-mail
Articles of Configuration
Written by Brian Walton   
Saturday, 23 May 2015 00:00

In December 2003, the Atlanta Braves sent then-minor league pitcher Adam Wainwright to the St. Louis Cardinals in a deal that centered on outfielder J.D. Drew. (Another player going to St. Louis in that trade is still active - by a thread – Cincinnati’s Jason Marquis.)

As the history books remind us, Drew spent just one year in Atlanta before joining the Los Angeles Dodgers and later, the Boston Red Sox before retiring a career underperformer – at least compared to expectations - at the age of 35.

Wainwright, who reached the Majors in the 2005 season, continues a decade later as one of the game’s best pitchers. Though he is out for the remainder of the 2015 season due to an Achilles injury, the scale of this trade is forever clearly tipped in St. Louis’ direction.

This past winter, the tables were turned as the Cardinals needed an outfielder this time, after the death of Oscar Taveras. They sent a young, promising pitcher to the Braves in Shelby Miller in a package in which Jason Heyward moved to St. Louis. As was Drew, the latter is a potential lame duck - eligible to become a free agent following the 2015 season.

In the early going, the Miller side of the trade looks very strong. The third-year Major Leaguer carried a no-hitter into the ninth inning last Sunday and sports National League-bests in ERA (1.33) and WHIP (0.83) with 43 strikeouts against 16 walks in 54 innings.

On the other hand, Heyward is batting just .245 with career lows in both OBP (.300) and slugging (.388), and therefore, OPS. Trying to get the 25-year-old started, Cardinals manager Mike Matheny has tried Heyward in just about every spot in the batting order – including the leadoff spot, a move which seemed to cause a fair amount of controversy in Atlanta last season.

Of course, while every trade can be and probably is re-evaluated every single day – at least on Twitter - the final score on most deals will take at least several years to tabulate fairly.

The mention of Miller leads to my message for this week.

One of the most active trade probers in National League Tout Wars is BaseballHQ’s Phil Hertz. Last week in this space, I outlined a swap we made in which I received Marco Gonzales in return for Pedro Strop.

This time around, Hertz e-mailed the entire league with his offer. Seizing on Miller’s two-hitter, he placed the right-hander on the trade table the very next day. The stated price was a closer and a hitting upgrade.

Having made the highest bid for formerly-dependable, now manager-killing and deposed closer Steve Cishek on draft day meant I was excluded from consideration for this deal.

Despite that and the fact he apparently was unable to close a trade, I admired what Hertz was trying to do. Whether or not he believes Miller’s value has peaked, Hertz decided to gauge interest on a red-hot player. He did it with a clearly-stated set of needs.

That way, others could make a quick evaluation. First of all, do I believe that Miller will continue to pitch well? Second, do I have what may be needed to close the deal? Finally, would I be willing to move into negotiations?

When making unsolicited trade offers, follow Hertz’ lead, but make sure you don’t stop there. If you are the seller, be ready to immediately follow up on each and every response, no matter how bad you think the counter offer may be.

From the other end, there is nothing worse than replying positively to these kinds of inquiries, only to not receive an acknowledgement of any kind. Next time, you might be branded as a difficult trader and may be left out of consideration for future offers.

Why limit your own options?

Just do these simple things and your odds of closing a deal – this time and down the road as well – are bound to increase.

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 17-year history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.

Last Updated on Saturday, 23 May 2015 08:50
 
Will a Minor Trade Have a Major Impact? PDF Print E-mail
Articles of Configuration
Written by Brian Walton   
Saturday, 16 May 2015 00:00

It will not go down as the biggest trade of all time – Pedro Strop for Marco Gonzales. In fact, far from it. Yet, I am hoping the move will help jump-start my floundering Tout Wars squad.

We are still two weeks away from Memorial Day, that time when traditionally, we should take serious stock of our fantasy baseball rosters.

I am not waiting that long in this league. The realities of a weak pitching staff, accentuated by the struggles of (former) Miami closer Steve Cishek, have come home to roost. My club is currently last in ERA and second to last in WHIP, so improvement is mandatory.

Here is how one approach came about.

Roughly three weeks ago, St. Louis Cardinals prospect left-hander Marco Gonzales, arguably the club’s best pitcher during spring training, strained a lat muscle and went on the disabled list of Triple-A Memphis.

Because I cover the Cardinals system for a living, I often receive questions about players in the organization from fantasy-playing friends. In this case, the friend is also a competitor in NL Tout, BaseballHQ’s Phil Hertz.

Phil asked me if there was any reason he should not cut bait on Gonzales, a player he mistakenly rostered on draft day for $5, while thinking the player on the table was Gio Gonzalez, instead. (As an aside, I bought Gio later for $16, and he has become one of my leading underperformers.)

With just four reserve spots in Tout, roster management is crucial. In this case, holding onto a minor leaguer while waiting for a call-up, and then hoping they will be effective upon their arrival, was a valid consideration on Hertz’ part.

In all honesty, I told him that I thought it was too early to discard Gonzales. I did, however, offer to acquire the pitcher for a few dollars of free agent budget (which can be traded).

Phil countered with what I felt was an unrealistic offer, pairing Derek Norris with Pedro Strop in return for Gonzales and Jarrod Saltalamacchia, the latter who had already been designated for assignment. After I declined his offer, he said he would hold Gonzales. Yet, a few days later, Hertz sent a broadcast e-mail to the league, offering the lefty in trade.

Why did that happen? Opportunity had been created. Adam Wainwright’s injury caused an immediate roster opening for the remainder of the season. Further, two other Cardinals lefties already tried and had not impressed – Tim Cooney and Tyler Lyons.

The Cardinals’ wild card is oft-injured lefty Jaime Garcia. The veteran is trying to work his way back to St. Louis in parallel with Gonzales, who was with the big league club as a reliever through the 2014 postseason.

I also own Garcia in this league, so having him and Gonzales both would seemingly give me a very good chance of eventually ending up with a starter with a consistent job for a very good St. Louis team.

There were no takers in NL Tout to Hertz’ offer, but after Gonzales was tagged in his first rehab outing and just before Garcia took the mound for his first turn, Phil came back around. He offered me Gonzales for Strop plus $3 FAAB.

With no up-and-coming prospects among my reserves, I was willing to execute a buy and hold on Gonzales. Only time will tell if it will be a good move or not, but I like Gonzales’ upside, especially in return for a setup man.

Therefore, I countered with the two players straight up and no cash involved. I was anxious to close the deal before we saw how Garcia would perform in his rehab outing that same day. Weak results could have strengthened Gonzales’ perceived value.

Hertz agreed to the one-for-one trade, while making several interesting comments. One is that he pledged to stop playing marginal starting pitchers. Another is that he is worried why I wanted Gonzales.

I too made a decision to get rid of a pair of stat-draining starters in Arizona’s Jeremy Hellickson and Colorado’s Jordan Lyles. Both were drafted, but primarily held in reserve until now. Their replacements were a group of middle relievers who may or may not become the next Strop, but at least I can plug them into openings with less fear of a terrible outing hurting my pitching stats even more.

The fact that Gonzales has now had two rough starts since being activated in Triple-A is concerning, but he has shown his ability before. Perhaps he can offer a boost later in the season, though it may be unrealistic to expect him to be the next Noah Syndergaard in 2015.

My advice to you is to consider every move, no matter how minor, in your efforts to address your roster weaknesses.

 

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 17-year history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.

Last Updated on Saturday, 16 May 2015 07:43
 
Two Gambles: One Failed and One Longshot PDF Print E-mail
Articles of Configuration
Written by Brian Walton   
Saturday, 09 May 2015 00:00

When assembling my National League Tout Wars pitching staff for 2015, I had built my plans around securing four front-line starting pitchers plus a couple bargain starters with some upside.

I thought I executed this fairly well with my top four of Francisco Liriano, Gio Gonzalez, Julio Teheran and Homer Bailey. On the bargain side, I bought two guys from whom I was hoping for a return to past glories in Jeremy Hellickson and Jaime Garcia.

In reality, Hellickson has never been the same since 2012, but the change of league at least looked intriguing at the time. In reality, he has been on my bench since week two and will likely be released.

I fooled myself again by getting Garcia, a pitcher who has great stuff when healthy, but can never seem to stay off the disabled list. The left-hander had looked very good in early spring training, so I paid $4 on draft day.

With the Tout drafts in New York City a full two weeks ahead of the regular season, I did not make my annual trip to spring training in Florida until the week after Tout. That is the reverse of my usual March plan of seeing the players before I draft them.

Literally as I was pulling into the parking lot of the Cardinals complex in Jupiter, Florida for the first time this spring, on the morning of March 24th, I saw a large crowd at the nearest minor league field.

It turned out Garcia was throwing a simulated game, as the last step toward his return to St. Louis’ rotation. I ended up catching most of his 80-pitch outing as my first official action in camp.

It was too much, too soon for Garcia, who suffered a setback as a result of that outing that continues to this day.

Just this week, I returned to Jupiter to catch the Cardinals extended spring training camp during the day and their high-A team in the evenings. Déjà vu was too much for me as when I pulled into the parking lot upon arrival, who was throwing but Garcia. The lefty was completing his final side session in preparation for his first rehab start at Triple-A Memphis this Sunday.

Tout has a rule that allows full FAAB reclaim for any player injured before the All-Star break (and half afterward), but for Garcia, I have decided to hold on. It isn’t like four more FAAB dollars will make my season. I believe that even if I get just seven or eight starts from Garcia before he gets hurt again, at least they will be good ones.

With the season-ending injury to Adam Wainwright, the Cardinals need a fifth starter. It will likely be Garcia if he can prove his health. Of course, that is a huge “if”. Otherwise, top prospect Marco Gonzales is on a similar trajectory, making his first Triple-A start on Saturday coming off the DL.

On the other hand, I did take my $12 back for the loss of Bailey, not that it will get me $12 value now on the free agent market.

As in the case of Garcia, I ignored the warning signs and drafted Bailey anyway.

In my defense, the Reds starter already had surgery. Last September, he went under the knife to repair a torn flexor tendon in his forearm. How did I know a healthy prognosis would turn into Tommy John surgery this spring?

In any case, one pitching gamble in Bailey clearly failed and one in Garcia still has a chance to beat some pretty long odds. Given that I don’t have a Noah Syndergaard or similar starting pitcher stashed on my bench, my 2015 season could end up being Jaime or bust!

I don’t really have much of a lesson for you in this story, other than the obvious - be diligent in your potential interactions with injury risks and don’t load your rosters with them unless you intend to play the longshots.

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 17-year history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.

Last Updated on Saturday, 09 May 2015 08:55
 
Out of Roster Balance – With No One to Blame PDF Print E-mail
Articles of Configuration
Written by Brian Walton   
Saturday, 02 May 2015 00:00

It seems that a common theme in my writing recently has been to call attention to my own specific mistakes while trying to make the example generic enough that it could be of value to readers in your own leagues.

And, here I am again.

xflOne of my two leagues that are the most important to me is the XFL, Xperts Fantasy League. No money is on the line, but my 14 competitors are industry leaders and some of the best players around, providing more than enough incentive.

The format is most interesting, with 40-man rosters including 23 active each week. We begin with a $260 budget used in November’s 23-player draft, which includes a maximum of 15 keepers including farm players. As I covered recently right here, there is also a supplemental snake draft in early April for 17 additional players. Drafted players’ salaries increase $5 each year, while salaries of farm players increase just $3 each year - once they are activated.

Other than trades, the only way to improve one’s roster within the season is via monthly in-season free agent acquisitions. The snake process begins with the last-place team.

Believe it or not, that is my problem.

A year after blowing up my team and finishing last for the first time ever, my 2015 roster got out of the gates surprisingly quickly. As I write this, I am in third place, which means I would pick 12th in our first monthly free agent draft.

I have accomplished this with mirrors, as my roster is embarrassingly out of balance in favor of hitting. Despite the aforementioned 17 reserve spots, I have no pitchers on my bench who are currently active in the Major Leagues. In fact, I am already one short.

New York Mets reliever Jenrry Mejia, in line to be the closer to start the season, was slapped with an 80-game PED suspension before contributing any stats in 2015. He is not assured of a defined role upon his eventual return.

While I did snag Cuban Raisel Iglesias in the supplemental draft, by the time I could activate him, he had already made his lone Major League spot start and was sent to Triple-A Louisville for seasoning.

My only other Major League pitcher on reserve was Tigers closer Joe Nathan. Despite the fact that Nathan went onto Detroit’s disabled list almost immediately after picking up an opening day save – which I did not get – I have had to keep Nathan active ever since. The sad reality is that I have no one else to replace him, with no one to blame but myself.

The remainder of my pitching roster includes three minor league prospects and Matt Moore, whose return is targeted for the second half.

Here is where my balance problem is so severe.

On the hitting side of the roster, I needed two immediate fill-ins from the supplemental draft – replacements for injured outfielders Denard Span and Josh Hamilton. Of course, the latter comes with a considerable amount of pre-packed baggage.

To replace them, I went to town, snaring Kennys Vargas, Anthony Gose and Michael Saunders, two of whom I already cannot play for a lack of openings. Other MLB players on my bench are Joe Panik and Chris Johnson.

On the pitching side, my only viable addition was Mike Leake, immediately plugged in for Mejia.

To make matters worse, my bench includes emerging players Addison Russell, Blake Swihart and Alex Guerrero. All these XFL farm players have made (or in the case of Swihart will soon make) their MLB debuts this season, but are blocked by others in my XFL lineup.

For those not keeping score, that leaves me with seven viable bench hitters and no reserve pitchers. In fact, I have a total of “negative one” pitchers, with an injured Nathan still in my lineup.

Having been on the road the last 2 ½ weeks, I did not have time to craft personalized e-mails to selected league peers to solicit a trade of one or more of my outfielders for pitching help. In a major disappointment, I did not receive even one reply to my mass communication.

Now that our monthly free agent window is just ahead this weekend, I will come to the table with a list of desired free agent pitchers – fully well knowing that all of the plums will be gone by the time I pick 12th.

The lesson to you is one that may seem so obvious it need not be stated. Yet, during the supplemental draft, I fell into the trap of chasing the best talent available instead of stepping back and ensuring I had the basics – enough reserves to even get me through the first month.

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 17-year history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.

Last Updated on Saturday, 02 May 2015 09:11
 
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