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Be Careful with Spring Injury and Recovery News PDF Print E-mail
Articles of Configuration
Written by Brian Walton   
Saturday, 01 March 2014 00:00

One has to be very careful not to read too much into injury-related news coming out of spring training camps. Let’s take the St. Louis Cardinals as an example.

Just a few days ago, Jaime Garcia was telling anyone and everyone how good his surgically-repaired left shoulder was feeling. Next thing we heard, he was on his way to get a second opinion from Dr. James Andrews - before the first official Grapefruit League game was played.

Then we have former closer Jason Motte, coming back from Tommy John surgery. The messages may have appeared to be mixed, but not if you have been paying close attention.

On February 8, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reported that Motte would begin spring training behind the team's other relievers, but the team believed that it was possible he would be ready for the start of the regular season since he would not need as much time to build up stamina.

On Tuesday, February 18, Rick Hummel of the Post-Dispatch said Motte’s throwing plan was “on the fast track.” He spoke with an excited Cardinals pitching coach Derek Lilliquist about Motte.

"He's ahead of schedule, based on the indications I got before spring," said Lilliquist. "You would conceivably say he's a week behind (the other pitchers). Did you see him throw today? The ball's coming out great."

With a bandwidth of possible return dates following any surgery, including this one, some may have become too optimistic.

A number of sites that integrate news from first-reporters - some but not all of which are packaged for the fantasy baseball player – focused more on the first part of Lilliquist’s comment. They interpreted that Motte being ahead of schedule reinforced the earlier reports that he would be ready to be activated to start the regular season.

Motte threw a bullpen on Sunday, February 23. Though it was considered a good sign, the reliever was cautionary. "It's a baby step," Motte told MLB.com. "Ramping it up too fast right now wouldn't do anyone any good.”

On Monday, February 24, the Post-Dispatch’s Bernie Miklasz furthered the optimism when he said, “there's a good chance Motte will be part of the staff on opening day.”

On Tuesday afternoon, February 25, Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch provided some new news, reporting that “Motte had a brief setback in his throwing before camp. That has caused a lag in his schedule that he could make up, but as of right now he would not be ready for opening day.”

Motte himself admitted that it would be "a push" for him to be ready to start the season.

Interestingly, back on February 16, even before he was said to be ahead of schedule, Motte did not acknowledge having a pre-camp setback, brief or not. In fact, he talked about taking precautions to avoid that very thing.

"I've been throwing for three weeks; this is the 10th time that I've thrown," Motte told Goold in mid-February. "You take anyone throwing 10 times you're not going to hop on the mound and air it out to see how it feels. That's an easy way to have a setback. Really, if you want a setback really hop on the mound and fire 15 real quick. It's one of those things where we're still taking it slow. Still taking our time."

For what it is worth, I agree with those who see no reason to take unnecessary risk with Motte to make a certain date. From a fantasy perspective, Motte has to be considered a setup man with good ratios, but would need an injury or a period of ineffectiveness from Trevor Rosenthal to regain his job and mixed league relevance in 2014. A free agent following the season, Motte could end up closing elsewhere in 2015.

In reality, the bottom line of Motte’s current injury status is no different from what the pitcher has been saying all along. He never said he would be ready to start the season. Others said it for him. My caution is to listen to what the players are saying directly as much as possible this spring. 

 

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 16-year history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.

Last Updated on Saturday, 01 March 2014 09:01
 
Critiquing Our Own Picks and Pans PDF Print E-mail
Articles of Configuration
Written by Brian Walton   
Saturday, 22 February 2014 00:00

Long-time editor of The Fantasy Baseball Guide Professional Edition, my National League Tout Wars competitor and friend Peter Kreutzer, was recently asked an interesting question by one of the magazine’s annual buyers. Peter shared the exchange on his blog.

The reader wondered which of the 30 of us who pen Picks and Pans that accompany The Fantasy Baseball Guide’s player profiles each year do the best job. Peter replied with the kind of tact and professionalism for which he has long been known, noting a strength of the process is that each writer can express himself as he best chooses.

Still, it caused me to wonder, as I am big on accountability. How did I do last year?

As a general rule, I try to go more for quality than sheer quantity of picks. I don’t consider myself much of a comedian, instead simply hoping to dispense solid advice. Man, I wonder how I did.

First, I had to re-familiarize myself with the specific Picks and Pans I had submitted for the 2013 Guide. Once I found them, I was a bit embarrassed. It appears that I had only gotten halfway through by the publishing deadline and sent in only my pitching write-ups. My best intention of completing the hitters must have been covered by an avalanche of other work – or maybe just a faulty memory.

I had gotten as far as 12 names – an equal number of pitching picks and pans alike. Re-reading my one-paragraph summaries for each, it is clear that at the time, I had been dabbling in the question of how best to apply newer analytics such as FIP and BABIP to fantasy projections.

Though I will not repeat every word of those year-old magazine predictions now, what I will do as part of revisiting them is to compare the pre-season values of the pitchers to their end-of-season values in a 15-team mixed league format. The source of the respective dollar amounts is our Mastersball Platinum package, of course.

After all, the numbers will speak far more loudly than my words!

2013 Picks

Max Scherzer. Pre-season value = $13, End-of-season value = $29.

I readily admitted right up front that it may have seemed to be nothing more than bandwagon-hopping to pick a 16-game winner from 2012, but I had justification for expecting even more in 2013. Among all qualifying starting pitchers, Scherzer’s 2012 BABIP of .333 was second-highest in all of MLB. I felt a tighter defense in Detroit would help, as well.

Adam Wainwright. Pre-season value = $23, End-of-season value = $26.

Not a lot of magic here, yet a slight uptick in return was achieved compared to the early-camp view. The big right-hander was in his second year following Tommy John surgery. His 2012 record was mixed, but he was also somewhat unlucky as his .315 BABIP was fifth-highest among MLB qualifiers. His FIP was almost a run lower than his 2012 ERA.

Tim Lincecum. Pre-season value = $6, End-of-season value = $-3.

I guess I should have taken more seriously his in-season fall from grace in 2012 and not accepted his partial recovery when it seemed to matter most that October. What caught my eye is that his 2012 FIP was a run lower than his ERA and his BABIP of .309 ranked in the top-20 highest in MLB. It turns out that diminished velocity trumped it all.

Cliff Lee. Pre-season value = $26, End-of-season value = $26.

In a bit of a twist of the infamous Dennis Green rant of several years back, “He was what we thought he was.”

Again, in looking back, perhaps this was low-hanging fruit. After all, there was no way Lee’s 2012 hex would be of more than one year duration, right? I saw absolutely nothing wrong with Lee’s peripherals and he delivered as expected.

Greg Holland. Pre-season value = $11, End-of-season value = $23.

I certainly did not get in dutch over this choice. (See why I generally avoid comedy?) Though the 2013 Royals made some bold moves to try to improve their rotation, that wasn’t what was behind this pick. I was excited about Holland’s 12.2 K/9 rate and a very unlucky BABIP of .346 in 2012.

Jaime Garcia. Pre-season value = $5, End-of-season value = $-6.

I purposely closed out my picks with a high-risk, high-reward name. Garcia had shoulder problems to close 2012 but did not go under the knife. He had a great spring in 2013 and made it through nine solid regular-season starts before requiring that appointment with the surgeon. By the way, his 2012 FIP had been a full run better than his 3.92 ERA and his BABIP was an unlucky .339.

Pick scoreboard: 3-2-1. Obtaining only slightly better than a .500 mark is nothing about which to brag. Let’s move on to my…

2013 Pans

Fernando Rodney. Pre-season value = $15, End-of-season value = $8.

The then-closer of the Rays was inarguably coming off a strong 2012, but despite Rodney having more lives than a cat, I did not see more of the same coming in 2013. I felt I was backed up by his unbelievably-low .220 BABIP the year before. As you know, Rodney has since moved on to Seattle, where it often rains.

Joel Hanrahan. Pre-season value = $6, End-of-season value = $-11.

Despite a projection of 32 saves for the Red Sox, I did not like what I saw in Hanrahan’s 2012 results with Pittsburgh - a walk rate over 5.4 per nine innings, an unsustainably-low .225 BABIP and a FIP of 4.45 versus his actual ERA of 2.72. Granted, I had no premonition that his season would end in early-May due to Tommy John surgery, but I also did not own him in any leagues.

Sergio Romo. Pre-season value = $19, End-of-season value = $12.

I felt the Giants were bound to take a fall after their 2012 championship and their closer would share. After all, in 2012, Romo had stranded an unworldly 90.7% of his baserunners with a very low .239 BABIP. He is still a solid closer, but was overpriced last season.

Jered Weaver. Pre-season value = $25, End-of-season value = $7.

20 wins represents a tall tower from which to fall, but what really bothered me was a 2012 strikeout rate below seven per nine innings and a very low .241 BABIP. In all fairness, Weaver might have had a shot at returning his value had he not lost a couple of months with a broken non-pitching elbow. Still, a pan is a pan.

Jeremy Hellickson. Pre-season value = $8, End-of-season value = $-11.

There was more to Hellickson’s 2012 performance than a shiny 3.10 ERA. For example, just 6.3 strikeouts and 3.0 walks per nine innings and a FIP that was 1.5 runs higher than his actual ERA. Even I had no idea the pendulum would swing as wildly in the other direction last season, however.

Kyle Lohse. Pre-season value = $7, End-of-season value = $9.

Perhaps I did the same thing most everyone has done for much of Lohse’s career – sell him short. I thought the Milwaukee version would be less effective than the St. Louis contract year Lohse the year before. Knowing his 2012 BABIP was low at .262 gave me support for what became my missed pan.

Pan scoreboard: 5-1-0. Overall score: 8-3-1 (.727).

Well, that wasn’t so bad, after all. Of course, we are all only as good as our most recent Picks (and Pans), so get your copy of The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2014 Professional Edition. There, you can check out my current predictions, along with those of 29 of my esteemed peers, including our own Rob Leibowitz, Lawr Michaels and Todd Zola.

Tip: You can buy the online ($7.99) or .pdf ($9.99) versions of The Guide at thefantasysportsguide.com. Use the PROMOCODE “mastersball2014” to receive a dollar off. If you prefer the print version, check your local newsstand, but hurry before they are all gone.

 

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 16-year history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.

Last Updated on Saturday, 22 February 2014 10:15
 
An Early Look at How Others See Rookies PDF Print E-mail
Articles of Configuration
Written by Brian Walton   
Thursday, 13 February 2014 00:00

In terms of preparation for the fantasy draft season, this is about the time of year when I become fatigued from looking at my view of rankings and projections. While we always have mock drafts in which to follow and participate, to me nothing is as valuable as real, live drafts when the world is watching and the ultimate results really count.

One of the first and most respected industry drafts occurred on Tuesday, February 11. Our own Lord Zola had the first pick in the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR) Mixed Draft. He can and most certainly will discuss his selection of Mike Trout first as well as the remainder of his roster.

I looked at the draft results for hints of how my industry peers are viewing rookies.

As we all know, a number of highly-respected prospect watchers also rank the best in the minor leagues each winter. Raters include Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, ESPN, MLB.com and many others.

The challenge in using those lists, especially for redraft leagues, is trying to figure out which prospects may have true big league opportunity in the upcoming season. For illustration purposes, I have married one such prospect list, Keith Law’s from ESPN, with the LABR mixed draft results.

In addition, on Twitter on Wednesday, former BA staffer and current MLB.com minor league expert Jim Callis weighed in on his three pre-season Rookie of the Year candidates by league. I offer that input as well.

At least 23 rookie-eligible players, including a dozen from the American League, were named among the 435 players chosen in the draft’s 29 rounds. Three of the 11 from the Senior Circuit were selected by Lord Z.

Only seven were taken before round 20. Another six were selected in rounds 20-23, while the final ten were not called out until the reserve rounds.


LABR Law Callis

LABR Law Callis
AL rookies round top 100 ROY
NL rookies round top 100 ROY
Xander Bogaerts 11 2 x
Billy Hamilton 6 52
Taijuan Walker 16 16 x
Travis d'Arnaud 17 36 x
George Springer 18 19

Oscar Taveras 19 5 x
Nick Castellanos 20 32 x
Kolten Wong 19 91
Yordano Ventura 20 50

Gregory Polanco 22 13
Kevin Gausman 21 23

Archie Bradley 23 9 x
Matt Davidson 23 88

Chris Owings 25 * 72
Jackie Bradley 25 51

Javier Baez 28 7
Marcus Stroman 25 58

Jameson Taillon 28 27
Miguel Sano 28 8

Tommy La Stella 28 * NR
Addison Russell 29 3

Maikel Franco 29 * 63
Jonathan Singleton 29 78

* Lord Zola pick


Starting with the American League, the respective placements of the top three of Xander Bogaerts, Taijuan Walker and George Springer are not particularly surprising. Detroit’s Nick Castellanos in round 20 catches attention. The 21-year-old is among Callis’ top picks, likely because of the apparent clear playing time opportunity at third base.

Assuming Kevin Gausman can latch onto the back end of the Orioles’ rotation, his selection in the 21st round could pay off. While third baseman Miguel Sano and shortstop Addison Russell will have the opportunity to impress in Minnesota’s and Oakland’s big league camps as non-roster invitees, the top-10 prospects were taken in the reserve rounds due to a likely low number of MLB at-bats in 2014.

Switching over to the National League, Billy Hamilton’s projected value as a stolen base leader skyrocketed his placement into the sixth round – the first rookie taken. The potential benefits of Mets catcher Travis d’Arnaud and Cardinals outfielder Oscar Taveras are well-known, though the latter may not get much playing time early on.

Taveras’ teammate, Kolten Wong, looked to have been taken ahead of his ranking, though Law is less aggressive on the second baseman than many other prospect raters. It should also be noted that Wong is coming to camp with a job in hand, of clear value to the LABR drafters.

Arizona hurler Archie Bradley looks like a nice pick in the 23rd round, but of course there are questions. Though the Arizona brass is saying that the signing of Bronson Arroyo does not diminish Bradley’s immediate opportunity, anyone who can count to five (as in five starters without Bradley) might beg to differ.

Who could blame Cubs shortstop Javier Baez if he pays a bit of extra attention in spring camp as to how Starlin Castro is playing? Baez’s projected late-season arrival could accelerate if Theo and Jed decide to send the disappointing Castro into early exile.

Lord Z nabbed an off-the-radar selection in Braves’ second sacker Tommy La Stella in the 28th round, before picking up an intriguing choice in 21-year-old Phillies third base contender Maikel Franco to lead off the final round of the 2014 LABR Mixed Draft.

In closing, I want to be clear that I am neither endorsing one prospect list over the others nor one draft over others. They happened to be the ones available to me today. As we get closer to March, much more tangible information will be out there, so let’s keep using it to our advantage.

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 16-year history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.

Last Updated on Thursday, 13 February 2014 09:07
 
Tout Wars leaders explain why OBP is in and BA is out PDF Print E-mail
Articles of Configuration
Written by Brian Walton   
Saturday, 04 January 2014 00:00

Ten years ago, when I was first asked to join a group of leading industry aged 40-plus players in the Xperts Fantasy League, the XFL, I was honored. After all, it is just the opposite of the common industry league one-and-done format, with a 40-man roster and 15 annual keepers that includes prospects of all ages.

Yet for me, the thing that perhaps stood out most was the XFL’s use of on-base percentage instead of batting average in the otherwise standard 5x5 format. A decade later, it hardly feels revolutionary, let alone unusual. But it is. Most leagues – and most industry projection and stats providers - still lead with BA.

One year ago, Tout Wars decided it was time to make the move, but did it carefully. First, the experiment began with the Tout mixed leagues. After a full season of play, a decision was made. OBP would not only continue but it would also replace BA in the heritage American and National League-only competitions for 2014.

I spoke with three of the Tout decision-makers and league members about this change – Ron Shandler of ShandlerPark.com, Rotoman, aka Peter Kreutzer, and Mastersball’s own Zen Master, Lawr Michaels.

Our discussion was centered on several key questions. We began with some of the factors that went into the decision to fully implement OBP across Tout.

Why change?

Shandler pointed out his positive experiences in prior OBP leagues, the supportive feedback from the 2013 Tout mixed leaguers and the fact that Tout has always prided itself as being a laboratory to test new ideas.

After that introduction, Kreutzer and Michaels quickly went to the heart of the matter.

“We initiated the move to OBP last year in the Mixed Tout Wars Leagues because we thought OBP was the better way to play,” Kreutzer said. “It was as simple as that."

“To me it looks like a historical accident (or intellectual inconsistency) that Roto pitchers are evaluated on the Walks and Hits they allow, but hitters are only evaluated on the hits they make. Switching to OBP from BA fixes that,” he continued.

“I do understand that in fantasy games, the categories are really arbitrary, but I still like to focus on true player skills and performance, and to me, OBP represents this better,“ Michaels added.

Why not change?

Rotoman volunteered several possible objections, including a minority opinion that the year-to-year randomness of batting average is preferred by some.

The following is a common concern among Tout warriors, as it affects their customers and readers.

“The only issue in moving to the AL and NL-only leagues is Tout's role as a pricing guide for players,” Kreutzer said. “If we adopt OBP, our prices are going to be of less use to players in BA leagues. We knew we were going to leave some people behind on this issue, but for a few days we ran a survey at Toutwars.com on the issue, and we learned two things that made us decide to make the change:

1) While our followers use the Tout prices as information, many play in leagues with different rules than Tout follows. So the actual prices are already compromised.

2) A huge majority of players who have played in OBP leagues prefer it to BA. For me, that was the kicker. Doctors who smoke prefer Lucky Strike, and roto players who play in OBP leagues prefer it even more."

Shandler reminds us that, as in any well-run league, no rule change should be considered irreversible.

“There were no negative factors for me,” Ron said. “It's just a rule. If it turns out that owners find using OBP has a negative impact on the enjoyment and playability of the league, we will reassess. Of course, we want to give it a good, solid chance to succeed so there won't likely be any knee-jerk decisions.”

How can the fantasy industry make it easier for others to follow?

Shandler believes it is incumbent on writers to discuss the subject with their readers, as we are doing here today.

“AVG is a traditional category both in roto and in real baseball,” Ron notes. “Just like stadium scoreboards have begun to embrace some new metrics, we as an industry need to consistently educate our readers - by example - as to the advantages of OBP.”

Kreutzer recalls the lively debates among the Tout warriors and encourages all league members considering change to engage in the same type of open dialogue.

“I think active discussion of the issue is the most important thing," Rotoman said. “I welcome the opposition of people like Chris Liss and Derek Carty, both excellent players and analysts, not because we can easily crush their arguments (though I think we can) but because they make really great points about the choices we make when we play this way, or that way."

“And it is by talking these arguments through that all the players out there will decide to stay the same or make the move. You should play by the rules that work for you, and no argument I make here is intended to override any league's preferences,” Kreutzer said.

Change takes time. Michaels sees it as part of maintaining the vitality of the game.

“Baseball is pretty set in its statistical past, so letting go of AVG will likely never happen,” Lawr predicts. "Still, with more stat geeks looking more closely at true representations of performance, staying open, and being willing to try things and change is paramount to staying vital as I see it.”

How should individual leagues decide if the move to OBP is right for them?

Kreutzer and mates in his local league have discussed the matter, but remain divided.

“In my home league, those of us who want to make the change are outnumbered by those who don't,” Rotoman notes. “It isn't a catastrophe not to change, but I can't understand the resistance to using a stat that better values a hitter's contribution than one that doesn't. That seems a little weird to me, but I don't judge.”

To some, including Michaels, the choice of categories is not that important. He does acknowledge that many see OBP as better representing the real game.

“Ultimately, it does not really matter who uses which stats for what,” Lawr said. “I understand that owners want to try to replicate the game on the field with fantasy, but that will never truly happen simply by definition.”

Shandler does not view OBP as much an emerging standard as it is another alternative to consider.

“Our goal is to expose other leagues to the impact of such a change, but in the end, it is an individual decision as to whether or not to adopt,” Shandler said.

“This industry is pretty well splintered as it is so I think it is foolish to think that moving from AVG to OBP will be creating a new standard. It is just an option that may help some leagues keep things fresh," he suggests.

All readily acknowledge the time may not be right for everyone.

“We are getting ahead of some people here, as we did moving to 5x5 back in the day when most people played 4x4 - but we are confident that the good reasons for most leagues to change will bring them along.” Rotoman said. “We hope so. We feel we serve the community better by being a leader on this issue than by standing still."

“So we move,” Peter concluded.

Again, thank you to Ron, Peter and Lawr for sharing their thoughts.

I will conclude with a brief, but relevant commercial message.

Mastersball is ready for OBP when you are. We are ahead of the curve with values and rankings customized to Tout Wars specifications. We were one of the first sites to provide 5x5 values when that move became popular and we were the first site to provide 15-team mixed values to support the National Fantasy Baseball Championship Main Event. Our Customized Value and Rankings Calculator (CVRC) has always had the capability of generating OBP numbers, but now we are doing it for you with every update, so consider subscribing to our 2014 Platinum Package now.

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 16-year history. He also holds the all-time NL Tout single-season records for wins and saves. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.

Last Updated on Saturday, 04 January 2014 16:28
 
Jay-Z: The Clear Early Winner in Cano Deal PDF Print E-mail
Articles of Configuration
Written by Brian Walton   
Friday, 06 December 2013 13:35

The rise of social media has caused traditional media overreaction on business-as-usual hot stove league news to reach all-time levels of ridiculousness.

The latest, but far from last example is the Robinson Cano sweepstakes, which apparently came to a close on Friday morning when the free agent second baseman agreed to terms on a 10-year, $240 million contract with the Seattle Mariners.

Cano’s agent, entertainer Jay-Z, reportedly had a Thursday night face-to-face meeting with Mariners officials, including team chairman Howard Lincoln. Expecting to close the negotiations with an offer that exceeded that of the New York Yankees in money and years, instead the club officials were supposedly stunned when Jay-Z countered.

The reports had Lincoln storming out of the meeting and his team moving on, closing off negotiations.

Some national writers, who should have the experience to know better, hopped all over the “news,” attacking the agent and assuming the worst for his client. Tweets such as these were common on Friday morning.

"Jay-Z badly overplayed his hand"
"Boras > Jay-Z"
"Livid Mariners break off talks"
“M’s were simply used to leverage Yanks”
etc...

I get that some people simply dislike Jay-Z and others marginalize him because of his background. But it seems to me that within just an hour or two, these over-reactors should have been eating heaping helpings of crow when the deal was disclosed.

Anyone with any experience in negotiations has seen this scenario play out time and time again. Still, the cattle respond as if each sliver of “news” is gospel and seem surprised when there are major twists and turns literally by the hour.

Those who predicted Jay-Z could not function effectively within MLB’s good-old-boy fraternity are going to have to seriously adjust their position. Cano was the best free agent out there and his agent secured him the richest deal. It is about as simple as that.

In terms of the contract itself, it appears clear that Seattle had to overpay to get a top free agent to play there. With lots of Nintendo money backing them, there seems little need to fear for the risk assumed by the Mariners, though.

In fact, this situation seems quite reminiscent of another wealthy West Coast owner shelling out big bucks for the services of an age 30-something star for the next 10 years. Of course, I am referring to Arte Moreno of the Angels and his signing of Albert Pujols two winters ago.

Time will tell if Cano delivers on his mega-deal better than has Pujols to-date. In the initial analysis of this transaction, however, Jay-Z is the clear winner.

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 15-year history. Though he is the only one to remember or care, he also finished second in each of the two subsequent seasons. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.
Last Updated on Friday, 06 December 2013 14:38
 
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