Mastersball

I could call my recent articles “the second guessing series.”  After all, as the season nears its end and my team is not in contention, it is only natural to consider the many potential reasons why.

Timing is everything. That is what I am going to discuss.

Haven’t we all been right about an emerging player, but either didn’t act or perhaps did, but gave up too soon?

I can share examples of all of the above.

In the final week of spring training, Andrelton Simmons was injured and lost out on the Atlanta Braves’ shortstop competition to Tyler Pastornicky. Since neither player was a proven major leaguer, I grabbed Simmons as one of my four reserve spots in National League Tout Wars.

When I called out Simmons’ name, I recall defending league champion Steve Gardner of USA Today commenting about his admiration of the choice. That was a nice endorsement as well as a warning. If I dropped the youngster, Gardner seemed ready to pounce. He also happened to own Pastornicky.

It was a bit surprising to see Simmons assigned to Double-A to start the season, given how close he was to not only making the major league roster, but starting for a playoff-quality club.

In the back of my mind, I was expecting the youngster to tear up the Southern League and be back in Atlanta inside of 30 days. After all, the 22-year-old was the 2011 A-Advanced Carolina League batting champion.

The reality is that I barely gave Simmons three weeks before dropping him on a speculative play on Washington’s Tyler Moore. That didn’t work out, to say the least.

On May 30, Simmons was back in the majors. In the June 4 bidding period, the man who holds the lead in the league, ESPN’s Tristan H. Cockcroft was the winner of the spirited bidding for Simmons. Cockcroft bid $26, reduced to $21 by the Vickrey rules which drop the price of all high bids over $10 to the value of the second-highest bid plus $1.

Already loaded with middle infielders at the time, I stayed on the sidelines for the Simmons bidding. Instead, I was intrigued by a call up by the Padres.

Catcher Yasmani Grandal moved to San Diego in the Mat Latos trade during the off-season. There was one problem. The Padres bestowed a three-year, $9 million deal on Nick Hundley, so Grandal was returned to Triple-A.

With Hundley batting just .169 after two months, the Padres broke down and added Grandal. I assumed it would be for good and bid accordingly, $10. In fact, I thought it would be too low.

What I missed is that Grandal, who was called up on Friday, was retuned to Triple-A on Sunday. I had paid $10 on a minor leaguer who I had to carry one week with no stats and no idea when he would be back.

At this point, keeping Grandal was both a matter of pride and an acknowledgment that most NL prospects with a chance to contribute this season were already rostered by other owners.

I felt better soon, as Grandal made major league history on June 30. He became the first player ever to hit home runs from each side of the plate for his first two major league hits.

I didn’t feel that good, since June 30 was a Saturday. Grandal had been called up unexpectedly and hit those homers before the Monday league transaction date occurred – meaning no stats for me.

In this case, my timing wasn’t terrible and I continue to receive the benefit of Grandal’s stats to this day.

As I wrote about earlier, I left the draft without a proven closer. I went heavy on closers-in-waiting instead. One of them was Francisco Rodriguez, formerly known as K-Rod.

After a 5.56 ERA first month, during which he fanned nine and walked eight, I tossed Rodriguez over the side. Mike Gianella grabbed him the next week. After giving Mike two decent months, K-Rod tanked again in July and August.

Only because of the roller-coaster ride known as John Axford did K-Rod manage to get three saves this season. I was happy to be rid of him. This move was actually ok for me.

Or was it? With K-Rod’s roster spot, I added Derrek Lee based solely on one news report that Milwaukee might be looking at him.

I will stop there, though I could continue at this indefinitely. At this point, the pain is still manageable, but it may not remain that way.

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 14-year history. Though he is the only one to remember or care, he also finished second in each of the two subsequent seasons. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com and in-season at FOXSportsMidwest.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.

For all the years I have played Fantasy Baseball, I’ve never been known as a wild and crazy trader. Yet in recent years in National League Tout Wars, I have pushed harder than in the past.

While the intent was noble, the results say otherwise.

I made three major trades this season in NL Tout. Until now, I did not notice they were almost exactly one month apart to the day. They were all oriented around the same theme – trading away offense to acquire pitching.

I left the draft table with a strong group of position players spiced by a moderate gamble on then-injured Ryan Howard. The group came through, as reborn David Wright and juiced Melky Cabrera fought it out in the NL batting race in the first half.

As always seems to be the case, there was an ugly side. My starting pitching was weak and I had no proven closers. I had used typical closer draft spots on set-up men and potential closers in waiting, putting more money on hitting.

Here is how it played out.

May 31: Walton sends Melky Cabrera, Kris Medlen and $40 FAAB to Nate Ravitz for Zack Greinke and Lance Berkman.

I said all I want to say about this deal last week.

Check that. Since then, it got even worse. On Monday, the Cardinals announced that Berkman needed yet another knee surgery. However, because rosters expanded on September 1, there is no need to put him (or anyone else) on the disabled list.

That really stinks. Without Berkman on the DL, I cannot reclaim half of his $20 draft value. In fact, I can’t claim anything other than temporary insanity for having made the trade in the first place.

July 1: Walton sends David Wright and Andres Torres to Scott Pianowski for Clayton Kershaw.

Over the months of July and August, Kershaw added seven wins, an ERA right at three and slightly better than a strikeout per inning. Very good, but not great.

Wright cooled off a bit from his earlier batting race-competing performance, but remained healthy and in the lineup. That is notable in itself. Double-digit home runs and steals, over 80 RBI and a .300-plus average are welcome on any roster any time.

I guessed wrong about Torres, the player who tipped the balance on this deal. I expected him to lose most of his at-bats to some combination of Kirk Nieuwenhuis (since demoted, then injured), Mike Baxter (injured) and Jason Bay (seemingly always injured).

Torres has continued to be a decent performer with bursts of steals, especially productive considering he was a one-dollar addition on draft day. Often these kinds of players are the unheralded difference between leadership in counting stats and being in the middle of the pack.

Strike two.

July 31: Walton sends Ryan Howard and Luke Gregerson to Ravitz for Craig Kimbrel, Reed Johnson and $5 FAAB.

Since coming off the disabled list, Howard has been sort of like an expensive version of a player already on my roster – Pedro Alvarez – with bursts of power but a low batting average. Still, double digit home runs and 41 RBI in his first 58 games back has considerable value.

Similar to Medlen, I drafted Gregerson inexpensively (for $3), expecting he would become the Padres’ closer sooner, rather than later. It happened later – much later – after I gave up on him.

Kimbrel continues to be an excellent closer, but just about the time he joined my team, the Braves began to experience severe turbulence. One of the by products is that his save opportunities almost completely dried up.

During the entire month of August, Kimbrel had just two saves. He had his usual solid peripherals in all nine innings pitched, but any number of cheap middle relievers could have provided that.

After the Padres moved the closer’s role from Huston Street to Dale Thayer, it finally landed with Gregerson. Despite the right-hander’s late-month ascension, he finished with one more save during August than Kimbrel and has seven overall.

Needless to say, with the closers that close, I would have been better off with Howard compared to Johnson and $5.

What underlines my disgust with myself is a feature offered by our excellent league stats provider, On-Roto.com. Called “Drafted Rosters Standings,” it shows today’s stats had the teams we left the table with on draft day remained static.

In that view, I have lost 15 points and six places in the standings since March.

I do understand my competition was not stagnant, either, but it seems clear to me that I should have remained more patient this season.

It seems a fine line to walk - as doing something almost always feels better than doing nothing. But if that is the case, why do I feel so badly now?

Brian Walton was the 2009 National League Tout Wars champion, scoring the most points in the league’s 14-year history. Though he is the only one to remember or care, he also finished second in each of the two subsequent seasons. His work can also be found daily at TheCardinalNation.com and thecardinalnationblog.com and in-season at FOXSportsMidwest.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.