2010 Second and Third Round Review

Let’s continue our draft prep by looking at last year’s second and third round draft picks and how those players actually performed in terms of dollars earned.

2.01 – Justin Upton, OF, AZ – $15
2.02 – Tim Lincecum, P, SF – $15
2.03 – Jimmy Rollins, SS, PHL – $1 (injury)
2.04 – Ian Kinsler, 2B, TEX - $9 (another injury)
2.05 – Jacoby Ellsbury, OF, BOS - $0 (injury)
2.06 – Matt Holliday, OF, STL - $30
2.07 – Roy Halladay, P, PHL - $33
2.08 – Grady Sizemore, OF, CLE - $0 (injury)
2.09 – Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, WAS - $22
2.10 – Joey Votto, 1B, CIN - $40
2.11 – Victor Martinez, C, BOS - $21
2.12 – Kevin Youkilis, 1B, BOS - $14 (injury)
2.13 – Adrian Gonzalez, 1B, SD - $25
2.14 – Mark Reynolds, 3B, AZ - $10
2.15 – Brandon Phillips, 2B, CIN - $18

3.01 – Pablo Sandoval, 3B, SF - $6
3.02 – Dustin Pedroia, 2B, BOS - $5 (injury)
3.03 – Felix Hernandez, P, SEA - $31
3.04 – Brian McCann, C, ATL - $18
3.05 – Robinson Cano, 2B, NYY - $32
3.06 – Jose Reyes, SS, NYM - $18
3.07 – Jayson Werth, OF, PHL - $27
3.08 – Zack Greinke, P, KC - $7
3.09 – Derek Jeter, SS, NYY - $17
3.10 – B.J. Upton, OF, TB - $20
3.11 – C.C. Sabathia, P, NYY - $20
3.12 – Ichiro Suzuki, OF, SEA - $25
3.13 – Kendry Morales, 1B, LAA - $0 (injury)
3.14 – Justin Morneau, 1B, MIN - $11 (injury)
3.15 – Nelson Cruz, OF, TEX - $21

Okay at least we learned we don’t want to draft players who are going to get injured.
Facetious of course…..BUT it is clear you need to keep the factor in mind if a player is injured time after time. That is what made Josh Hamilton such a bargain last year but also why drafting Ellsbury or Rollins with a first or second round pick derailed many teams. This year with both Sizemore and Morneau fantasy players will need to be convinced in the spring that both are truly healthy and frankly with Morneau, he had lost power before being injured and the long range effects of concussions can’t be accounted for. But I would bet on most of those players who lost value to recover most of it in 2011 but I would not use a first round pick on any of them.

Let’s review some different groups of players we have listed earlier:
Elite hitters – were first round picks last year and should be again this year (Pujols, H. Ramirez, Braun, Longoria, M. Cabrera, Tulowitzki, Crawford, Howard)
Rising hitters – provided first round value and likely will be drafted in the first round this year (Votto, Hamilton, Cano, Carlos Gonzalez, Adrian Gonzalez)
Rebound hitters – Chase Utley is the main one from the first round…how strongly do we believe he will again deliver first round numbers? (In the second and third rounds this would include Rollins, Ellsbury, Pedroia, Youkilis, Grady Sizemore, Kinsler, and Reyes)

Remember the objective in drafting your first few hitters is to have a very strong base for your team. The players you pick in the first few rounds will affect how you approach the rest of your draft, especially in regards to categorical strengths or weaknesses.

Your targets by category are determined by the configuration of your league. League rules and the competitive balance of the league would also affect how you draft. But by far the best guide for your targets would be the league results for last year. You should aim to finish third or fourth or better in each category and a strong, balanced team like that would likely win most leagues.

I did have a few questions because in the past columns I have not addressed drafting any pitchers. While certainly pitchers can have a great year and deliver results that would make them look like equal value to some of your hitters we have to remember that pitchers are far less consistent in their value from year to year – only the few Roy Halladays in the pitching world can be counted on to be consistent. A good example would be Kansas City’s Zack Greinke who after his Cy Young season in 2009 failed to come anywhere close to those numbers in 2010, disappointing anyone who might have used a high pick on him last year. Felix Hernandez might win more games this year (the Mariners will still be last in the AL West but should improve a little) but will he have the great numbers he had last year? The odds are against it although he IS a very good, young pitcher and still in the top tier of starting pitchers.

In typical 5X5 mixed league drafts I would not draft a pitcher in at least the first three rounds and have been known to wait several more rounds before rostering my first pitcher – there are just so many out there (and of course I think I can analyze them better than most players). We will look at a rough draft plan in the next column. Sometime later this week you will see the actual results of real, money, fifteen team, 5X5 mixed league that Todd and I play in with our comments on each of our picks. The time to start your preparation for your 2011 leagues is NOW.{jcomments on}