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DownloadI am fairly sure that in your leagues as in mine there were very high prices paid for Joe Smith, who would be assuming the closer’s role for Mike Scioscia’s Angels. Those prices were too high, in my opinion.
The main reason Scioscia made the change was the April struggles of opening day closer Ernesto Frieri, who saved two games and blew two saves with an ERA of 7.27 and a 1.59 WHIP.
But let’s look at Frieri over the last two years and his closing success. In 2012, Frieri converted 23 of 26 save opportunities. Last year, he converted 37 of 41 save opportunities but I will bet your recollection of last year’s stats is that he didn’t pitch that well. But that would only be partially true. Yes, he had a 3.80 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP and blew four saves, and yes, he was replaced as the closer for awhile. But again, he blew only four save opportunities and struck out 12.8 batters per 9 IP.
So let’s take a closer look at Frieri in 2013. He had a good April (2.53 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 3 SV, 1 L) followed by a poorer May (4.15 ERA, 1.38 WHIP but still saved nine games). He then had a good June (2.77 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and another nine saves) followed by a terrible July (8.64 ERA, 1.92 WHIP, 4 SV, 2 L). After being replaced as the closer, he returned to the role in August (3.27 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 4 SV, 1 L) and then enjoyed a great September (2.84 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, 8 SV).
And his strikeout rate was actually its highest in July at 15.1, so maybe he was just trying too hard to throw the ball by hitters when he was struggling.
All of that plus Scioscia’s fondness for his regular players suggests that Frieri, who has had two good appearances since being removed this year, will get a chance to close again for the Angels.
Remember that Joe Smith, who has been a good setup reliever, has been striking out batters at only 7+ batters per nine innings pitched over the last two seasons, and his 9.0 this year is higher than any season since he was a rookie in 2007.
So yes, I think Frieri will be closing again and relatively soon, so don’t give up on him. In fact, watch to see if someone panics and drops him or is willing to throw him into a trade. {jcomments on}
I make notes each week of the season about players who might be worth an add in various leagues and of course for my injured players. But, we should also look back a little to see if there are any nuggets in free agent drops and player usage.
I find it amusing that with all the teams looking for saves and dealing with closers who are having more injury days off this year than in previous years, that at the same time there are so many “yesterday closers” or “closers in waiting” that get dropped.
In the Tout mixed draft league (whose FAAB results you can see in all leagues like all LABR leagues each Monday) drops this week were Jose Valverde, Edward Mujica and Josh Fields.
And, while some add/drops in that league are a function of the league rules, those drops were duplicated in my 12-team Rotowire Online Championship league, as both Valverde and Mujica as well as Alexi Ogando were dropped on Sunday.
In several of those leagues, there are good pickups made, but in reality they are a week behind AL or NL keeper leagues. Certainly, the depth in mono leagues is a good reason for that, but there are some players whose role should have suggested the earlier pickup. My favorite pickup on Sunday, April 13 was Kevin Kouzmanoff, who was activated by the Texas Rangers when they placed Adrian Beltre on the DL. Kouzmanoff, who hadn’t been fantasy or major league relevant since 2011, did have a great spring for Texas but there really wasn’t a spot for him on the opening day roster. But, given he would play almost every day last week and most of this week at third base for the Rangers, he was a great, relatively cheap pickup last week.
Many mixed leaguers with a soft CI or UTIL spot made the addition this week, so at least they will get four-plus days of Kouzmanoff in the Rangers' lineup (assuming Beltre is activated when eligible on Friday). But I think those who needed the bat and eschewed the pickup this week with Beltre coming back were shortsighted for the second week in a row. Kouz hit so well last week and on Monday that it seems to me highly likely the Rangers will keep him up so they can spell Beltre a few days and let him DH or when Beltre is at third base, Kouzmanoff would be a great platoon partner for Mitch Moreland at DH.
One drop that I saw in several mixed leagues confused me. Alberto Callaspo entered the season with both 2B and 3B eligibility. True, he was not a “starter” for Oakland at either position, but the A's do have a propensity to get at-bats for their bench players, and Callaspo’s value on a platoon-oriented team is enhanced by his ability to hit from both sides of the plate. If you think those points are exaggerated, then look at the fact that as of Monday he has had 60 at-bats and played in 14 of Oakland’s 18 games, hitting .300 with two home runs and ten RBI. That would rank him 18th as a mixed league second baseman and 15th as a mixed league third baseman (to say nothing of filling MI and CI spots). Sexy? No. But very effective and very undervalued. {jcomments off}
While George Springer is owned as a minor leaguer in most AL keeper leagues, some AL redraft leagues and lots of mixed leagues will have a chance to bid this week on a potential 30-30 hitter.
In case you aren’t familiar, the Houston outfielder played last year at Double-A Corpus Christi and Triple-A Oklahoma City and totaled 37 home runs and 45 stolen bases. Okay, he won’t hit that many in the American League and his .303 batting average last year is likely going to take a severe hit against major league pitching, where he will miss a lot of balls. But he is being called up in April, not missing all of April and most of May as do many top minor league prospects who are held back for financial reasons. I still think if he adjusts well (no one can predict the mental adjustments no matter how good the tools), a 30-30 season would be in reach. The 24-year-old right-handed batter does play his home games in a favorable park and gets to visit both Arlington and Anaheim, which treat right-handed hitters well.
So how much will it take to roster Springer this weekend?
Obviously, league factors differ, but what was the winning bid in your league on Mike Trout a few years ago? Really, the numbers aside from the BA are comparable at least in HR/RBI/SB – Springer doesn’t figure to score as many runs as the Angel phenom.
I suspect that in the NFBC format in leagues where he wasn’t rostered on draft day (and in some of those he has already been dropped with all the injuries forcing owners to make tough decisions), it will take a minimum of 500 FAAB units to have a good chance to land Springer.
I won’t be able to bid on him there – in the 15-team main event, one of my opponents drafted Springer in the 17th round (where Greg Morgan and I drafted Dan Straily – but we did draft Javier Baez in the next round) while in the 12-team Rotowire Online Championship, my partner and I drafted him in the 27th round.
But he will be in my lineup on Friday – I hope you have him on a team already or get a chance to add him this weekend – he will be fun to watch. {jcomments on}
As always, the early season reminder for your fantasy teams is PATIENCE.
Your star outfielder is not going to hit .200 all year and your ace starter will get some wins and your second SP will come off the DL. Too often we see people panic and make drops, or even worse, trades that will haunt them the rest of the season.
The trades are worse because not only are you trading low but you are potentially strengthening your opponent at the same time. That is not relevant in NFBC leagues but the poor drops are. In my AL keeper league of almost 30 years, I put in a rule several years ago after one impatient owner thought his draft had been terrible and traded most of his expensive players for cheap contracts, prospects and first-round draft picks for the following season. The problem, aside from virtually being out of play for the rest of the season, is that as drafted his team would have finished in the money. Give peace and your players a chance.
At least the ones you can’t replace easily. For the first few weeks in almost any league, there are lots of good choices and there is no particular reason if you drafted a player who was or is a mistake to not get a better player from the free agent pile ASAP.
Personally, I would not drop any of the short-term DL players in any format – Aroldis Chapman, Doug Fister, Hisashi Iwakuma, David Robertson, Wilson Ramos and likely Mark Teixeira will come back and contribute to your team later. But unless you have DL slots in your league, Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, Patrick Corbin, Miguel Sano, Jarrod Parker and Jameson Taillon should all be dropped – they won’t be back this year. In keeper leagues, hopefully you have the DL slot or enough roster space to keep them for the future, but if not and you can contend this year, remember that is always Job 1.
Depending on when you drafted or how deep your league is, here are a few slightly under the radar players I would look to add this weekend:
Jason Kubel, OF, MIN – With Chris Colabello (likely already picked up but if not put at the top of the list) for now entrenched in the DH slot, Kubel will have to fight for at-bats in left field, but they can’t keep his bat on the bench.
Conor Gillaspie, 3B, CWS – Gillaspie, not Matt Davidson, won the third base job for Robin Ventura’s club and is an underrated hitter.
Jesus Guzman, 1B/OF, HOU – Guzman doesn’t have a clear position but they have to find at-bats for a good hitter with some pop in his bat (two home runs in the first week).
Ichiro Suzuki, OF, NYY – Yes I know he was poor last year – flip the calendar already, he is hitting over .400 and will get some steals, and in case you didn’t remember, the rest of the Yankees' outfielders are on the all-brittle team.
Aaron Harang, SP, ATL – For now at least, behind a good Braves team, Harang is a decent spot play (not as good as his first game this year but not as bad as you remember). Next week he has a start at the Mets on Tuesday.
Edinson Volquez, SP, PIT – On my personal scary list but had a very good first start and is home Monday against Milwaukee and it could be a two-start week.
If you are truly desperate for saves, Shawn Kelley may get a few more (but not a lot) before David Robertson comes back in two weeks. And while Jonathan Broxton is due back in Cincinnati this week, Manny Parra might still get a few matchup or two-inning saves for the Reds.
Again, while you need to be diligent on free agents, be patient with some of your players who will come around – Please. {jcomments on}
Last Friday, I did my last DC (Draft Challenge) in the NFBC. This Mastersball entry, as my non playing co-pilot is Lord Zola, was an express draft – all 50 rounds done in one sitting.
Sadly, this one lasted five and a half hours as we had some drafters apparently new to the system and perhaps the concept. But, the field did include former NFBC Champion Terry Haney, who managed on several occasions to nab the player who was at the top of my short list for that round's pick. But that is the nature of a snake draft and you must push past the irritation and get a good team. So here is the beginning of my draft by rounds with thoughts still stuck in my head and then the roster by position for your analysis.
I was drafting out of the 10 hole – not what you want but as they say, "When they give you lemons, make great lemonade."
1.10 - Adam Jones – A very safe 100/30/100 hitter with some steals and a good BA
2.06 - Yasiel Puig – With all of my clear targets gone, I felt it was Go Big or Go Home time
3.10 - Mark Trumbo – I had a list of the Tier 2/3 SP (Kershaw being Tier 1 and promoting Jose Fernandez from Todd’s fourth tier) and with only Kershaw, Darvish, Scherzer and Strasburg drafted in the first two rounds, I felt I would bet that one of the remaining eight pitchers in my queue would fall to me in the 4th round and preferred that bet to the fact that one drafter behind me might take Trumbo’s power (most left in draft) with one of their two picks. Didn’t happen, so…
4.06 – Craig Kimbrel – So I switched gears to take the best closer off the board and get the strikeout boost which would promote one of my pitchers up a tier.
5.10 – Anibal Sanchez – Happy to get one of the Tier 4 pitchers there
6.06 – Jose Altuve – I was actually looking for Everth Cabrera here but he went at 5.15, so taking the best MI option available
7.10 – Kyle Seager – In this round, I was nipped on Prado and Cain, so I took the best 3B available
8.06 – Doug Fister – Not sure why he fell but glad to have him as my second starter (also Tier 4)
9.10 – Jason Castro – I was looking for Frieri or Jennings but they went right before my pick, so I took the best catcher with the top-11 already gone
10.06 – Alexei Ramirez – After my Castro pick, I thought about getting my second closer or Danny Salazar, but he and Frieri and Grilli disappeared so I addressed two key needs at SS and speed
11.10 – Jered Weaver – Happy to take quite a discount on a very good pitcher (another Tier 4) and again, add Kimbrel’s extra strikeouts and see how much more attractive Weaver would be
12.06 – Jim Henderson – The closer pool was thinning far too fast but Henderson should be fine and I can add K-Rod cheaply
13.10 – Russell Martin – Before things got really ugly at the position, I chose Martin over Miguel Montero
14.06 – Jose Veras – I took Veras over Nate Jones for my third closer and it’s really hard to find saves at this point in the draft (only Hawkins/Brothers and Feliz/Soria were left)
15.10 – Avisail Garcia – Three players I had queued went in this round (Reddick, Estrada and Ventura the pick in front of me) but glad to add my third outfielder, who I think will have a big year
16.06 – Drew Smyly – This one not only for Todd but to solidify my core starting pitchers (on picks 5-8-11-16) Not sure anyone has four better here (but will check later)
17.10 – A.J. Pollock – Having lost some of my favorite double-digit HR/SB contributors, I reached for Pollock here but check the results in September
18.06 – Adam LaRoche – My third CI and some needed home runs
19.10 – Dee Gordon – IF in fact he platoons at 2B for the Dodgers, he will add a LOT of needed stolen bases and for now is my third MI
20.06 – Chris Owings – Okay, not for long as it looks like Owings has won the job in Arizona and will be a very productive hitter (and I can pick the one that does the best Down Under)
21.10 – Chris Iannetta – Wanting a third starting catcher (and hoping to pair with Conger later)
22.06 – Nathan Eovaldi – A nice NL pitcher who I think will break out for my fifth SP
23.10 – Drew Stubbs – Reports are that Stubbs has won the centerfield job for the Rockies and will lead off at least part of the time
24.06 – Garrett Jones – A two position player for roster flexibility and some added power
25.10 – D.J. Lemahieu – My second 2B and more speed
26.06 – Josh Fields – If named the closer, I will have four (at least to start the year) and some won’t have two – may not be needed to win this particular league but I want to win the overall money too
27.10 – Conor Gillaspie – Has won the third base job and gives me my second 3B plus more lineup options
28.06 – Tanner Scheppers – This may be a great two way pick as Scheppers (who has great stuff) is now in the Rangers rotation when he was thought to be in the mix with Feliz and Soria – maybe he will return there
29.10 – J.B. Shuck – A very good fourth OF for the Angels and very playable when Hamilton is on vacation
30.06 – Zach Lee – May have won the fifth spot in the rotation but if not just a call away when Maholm doesn’t work or Beckett is re-injured
31.10 – Robbie Ross – In case he wins the fifth spot for Texas
32.06 – Alex Colome – Ditto for Tampa
33.10 – Josh Collmenter – Spot starts or relief roles a valuable arm
34.06 – Eric Stults – The Padres fifth starter in a good park
35.10 – Bruce Chen – Very good spot starter, especially if the Royals are really good
36.06 – Aaron Sanchez – Tremendous prospect who has just won a Toronto rotation spot
37.10 – Chris Capuano – Would be very valuable if he gets into the Red Sox rotation
38.06 – Jordan Pacheco – Do you know who the backup catcher is in Colorado? Also behind Morneau at first base
39.10 – David DeJesus – Very good for extra outfielder/UT
40.05 – Nick Punto – Valuable like Swiss army knife – 2B/3B/SS eligibility
41.10 – Carlos Corporan – I got sniped earlier on Conger so will back up Castro instead
42.06 – Antonio Bastardo – For the name but what if the Phillies can trade Pap?
43.10 – Paul Maholm – Zach Lee insurance
44.06 – Sean Marshall – Not fully healthy or he would be in the committee while Chapman is out, but could get back there and be useful later in the season as well
45.10 – Andy Dirks – Like a second half pickup when there aren’t any
46.06 – Vidal Nuno – Yankees rotation far from stable
47.10 – Brandon Cumpton – In competition for Pirates' fifth starter or could get called up later
48.06 – Brian Flynn – One of Marlins' top pitching prospects
49.10 – Miguel A. Gonzalez – Sent down by Phillies but will be in rotation later in the year
50.06 – Juan Perez – 4th outfielder for the Giants who has played very well this spring and last year and how healthy are Pagan and Morse?
I hope you read (or skimmed) all of those, but let’s look at the roster:
C – J. Castro, R. Martin, Iannetta, Corporan
1B – Trumbo (OF), LaRoche, Pacheco
3B – Seager and Gillaspie + Punto (2B/SS as well)
2B – Altuve, LeMahieu + Gordon will qualify
SS – Ramirez, Gordon, Owings
OF – A. Jones, Puig, A. Garcia, Pollock, Stubbs
OF – G. Jones (1B), Shuck, Dirks, Perez
SP – A. Sanchez, Fister, Weaver, Smyly, Eovaldi, Scheppers
SP – Z. Lee/Maholm, Colome Stults, B. Chen, Aa. Sanchez, Nuno, Cumpton, Flynn, Gonzalez
CL – Kimbrel, Henderson, Veras
RP – Fields, Ross, Collmenter, Bastardo, Marshall
Lots of position flexibility to maximize HR and SB (hitters can be switched on Mondays and Fridays).
19 of the 25 hitters are starters or platoon.
Very good in Saves (only one other team has three).
Only three other teams have three starting catchers.
But there are six months to go with just these players so we will see who survives in addition to who produces. I want to not only win this league but have enough points to be in the overall leaders for all DC leagues – there is $20,000 to the overall winner.
Your questions/comments are always welcome here or in the Forums or on Facebook{jcomments on}