Salient is an excellent design with a fresh approach for the ever-changing Web. Integrated with Gantry 5, it is infinitely customizable, incredibly powerful, and remarkably simple.
DownloadI mentioned in an earlier column that drafting minor league prospects in the NFBC draft and hold leagues was in my opinion largely a waste of a draft pick. Drafters are seduced by the contributions made in previous years by a Mike Trout or Yasiel Puig once they arrived in the major leagues in May or June.
But those are unique players both from a talent perspective but also because there were enough signs – a late-season call-up in 2011 for Trout and blazing spring training for Puig last year.
But for all the other prospects currently being drafted by participants in the leagues, what is the cost to their team?
Let’s take a look at a draft that is almost finished and see whether the prospect pick is worth the draft pick used.
George Springer, OF, HOU - While not regarded as the top minor league prospect (currently #21 on the MLB Top 100 list), Springer is getting drafted well ahead of players higher on prospect lists largely because of a huge year in 2013 when he slugged 37 home runs and had 45 stolen bases at Double-A and Triple-A. But Houston won’t start Springer’s clock until late-May or early-June – the MLB “Super Two” date each season. Springer currently has an NFBC ADP of 185, meaning you would have to take him in the 16th round, in this draft ahead of guys like Brett Lawrie, Jimmy Rollins or Francisco Liriano, all of whom will start contributing to your team on Opening Day.
Oscar Taveras, OF, STL - Taveras is again one of the top-five minor league prospects (currently #3 on MLB Top 100) but has nowhere to play in St. Louis, which currently projects an outfield of Matt Holliday, Peter Bourjos and Allen Craig – Craig moving from first base so Matt Adams can play every day. Taveras currently has an ADP of 262, but in the 17th round you could draft Marlon Byrd, D.J. LeMahieu or Corey Kluber, again all contributing stats from day one, while you wait for the Cardinals to need Taveras.
Javier Baez, SS, CHC - Currently #7 on the MLB Top 100 list, Baez has tremendous bat speed and power, with 37 home runs and 111 RBI along with 20 stolen bases at Class-A and Double-A in 2013. In addition to the monetary consideration, Baez is not a great fielder, clearly behind Starlin Castro at shortstop for the Cubs. True, he is a better hitter than what the Cubs will open the season with at third base, but with an ADP of 349 you are passing on Trevor Plouffe, a starting major league player who will hit 20+ home runs.
Byron Buxton, OF, MIN and Miguel Sano, 3B, MIN - Even though Buxton is currently the #1 prospect on the MLB Top 100 list (and virtually every other list) while Sano is at #4, Sano actually has an earlier ADP of 457 to Buxton’s 470, and that is correct in terms of likely playing time in the Majors this year. There is speculation that Sano might even compete for a spot in the Twins’ starting lineup to open the season or at least make a June debut, while no on projects Buxton to be up before September, at the earliest, because Buxton was only in A-ball last season while Sano reached Double-A. Drafting Buxton in the 32nd round would cost you another everyday player at that position, like a Gerardo Parra, for a player we may not see all year. At least by drafting Sano in the 31st round, you are just pushing a reserve pick. But, not only does he have to be called up to justify the player you didn’t draft, he has to be clear of the elbow problems he had last year or face a year recovering from Tommy John surgery.
I didn’t address the few pitchers who are drafted as early as the hitters because there is far more turnover in MLB pitching staffs during a season and the top pitching prospect on the MLB list at #5, Archie Bradley, who will be given a chance to crack the Diamondbacks rotation in March. Still, instead of Bradley, you could get a sure starter or closer at #298 in Bartolo Colon or Nate Jones.
Taijuan Walker, just one spot below Bradley on the Top 100, is virtually guaranteed a spot in the Seattle Mariners rotation. Thus his ADP of 224 makes a lot more sense for early drafters.
This is not to say I would not draft a prospect hitter – especially the ones you might think will be up in June, as in the case of Sano and maybe Springer. But remember we have no idea if/when those MLB clubs will decide to promote the players, and it might not be until September. I simply cannot take them when it costs me an everyday player and before I have my starting lineup drafted.
Depth is very important in this format where you will not have access to any free agents, especially the top minor league prospects. But playable depth is far more important than a player you can only hope you will be able to put into your lineup at some point during the season. {jcomments on}
Fantasy baseball players aren’t concerned with what the Angels are eventually going to pay Mike Trout for those in keeper leagues have their own Trout contract problem THIS spring.
In AL-only keeper leagues, Trout was rostered in many leagues as a minor league prospect or farm player in 2010 or 2011. Many fantasy players likely didn’t activate him for his 40 games during the second half of the 2011 season, so the outfielder's contract clock then began in 2012 as $5 or $10 per season contract in most setups.
After Trout's terrific contributions to those fantasy owners in 2012 and 2013, the time for a decision comes this spring: How long do they lock him up with a long-term contract? The standard for extending a player is adding five dollars for each year he will be contracted past 2014. So if he is currently at $5 as season (as I have him in my AL keeper league) the choices would be:
Keep him at $5 this season and he goes back into the auction pool in 2015.
Add $5 and keep him at $10 for 2014 and 2015.
Add $10 and keep him at $15 for 2014, 2015, and 2016.
Add $15 dollars and keep him at $20 for 2014 through 2017.
Add $20 dollars and keep him at $25 for 2014 through 2018.
Add even more five dollar increments and keep him for much longer.
Sure, we all want to own Trout for the foreseeable future but unlike MLB, our game places a salary cap on our teams, making us examine the efficacy of long-term contracts.
So what fits your team?
I don’t see too many examples of this, but if you had a team with only a clear window to win this year – perhaps with several key expiring contracts – you might not be able to spend too many dollars on Trout and just keep him at $5. The good thing about this approach, aside from a tremendous profit this year, would be that if for some reason you weren’t going to win your league, you could get a huge return from the teams contending for your league championship. If you had that “win now” team and could spend the $10, and then if injuries or unexpected poor performance from your expiring players were to happen, you could trade them instead and still have a nice $10 Trout next season.
So what is the value (profit if you will) of Trout at differing contract levels? What is your maximum return on a long-term contract?
First, we need to look at how much Trout has earned in his first two full seasons and what we project him to earn in 2014. In AL-only leagues, Trout earned $47 in 5x5 keeper leagues ($48 in 4x4). He then earned $45 in 2013. Mastersball projections for 2014 have him earning $38 (likely based on a lower batting average...after all he dropped from .326 to .323 last year). But we have to project for several future seasons to get contract values, so I am going to value him at a flat $40 for the next five years. Even if his batting average is lower, maybe something else is higher and he maintains value of $40 or more.
Okay, let’s go back to the contract options and see what the net profits are at a current five dollar salary with five dollars for each additional year you extend him (If you are at $10 now or add ten dollars per year you can change these scenarios with your numbers).
Keep him at $5 this year – Earn $35.
Add one year so $10 this year and next – Earn $30+30 = $60.
Add two years so $15 contract – Earn $25+25+25 = $75.
Add three years so $20 contract - Earn $20+20+20+20 = $80.
Add four years so $25 contract – Earn $15+15+15+15+15 = $75.
Add five years so $30 contract – Earn $10+10+10+10+10+10 = $60.
So while having him for the next five years is as much profit as a three-year deal, the maximum profit is to sign him to a four-year contract – three additional years, so $20 in 2014 through 2017 and make a 20 dollar profit on him each year.
My Mike Trout will be on my Great American Rotisseleague roster as $20C17, at our auction on April 1 adding three seasons to his current 5D12.
Your mileage may vary. {jcomments on}
It is the time of the year when many fantasy baseball players are drafting “draft and hold” teams in various competitions.
As the name suggests better than the “Draftmasters” or “Draft Experts” handles, these are larger (usually 50-player) rosters where there are no free agents added throughout the upcoming season.
So all you have to set your lineup each period are the players you drafted. That should mean that you have an appropriate number of backups at each position or even better players with multiple position eligibility that can be moved around when needed.
In my experience (having won several of these leagues), one of the key positions that is usually under drafted is the Catcher position. We know that this position is shorter on rotisserie contributors to start with, especially when most of these leagues start two backstops. But in addition, injuries, even minor ones, could see you collecting zeroes in the counting stats unless you roster is built with this in mind.
On a typical 50-man roster, I want to draft four catchers to try and ensure that doesn’t happen to my team. This year, players are lucky that there are a couple of playable catchers who qualify at another position, so Evan Gattis (C/OF) and Yan Gomes (C/1B) and even backups like Ryan Doumit (C/OF) or reaching further, Chris Hermann (C/OF) should be rostered perhaps a round or two before you think they fit.
In a current D&H competition where we drafted the first 23 players in early November and are completing the 50-man rosters online, I waited until the 12/13 turn to take my first catcher but took both Wilson Ramos and Gattis. In Round 16, I drafted Gomes. We are now in Round 27 where I selected Josmil Pinto with the first pick of the round. You may think I didn’t need him but I think the teams with Matt Wieters and J.P. Arencibia or Carlos Santana and Hank Conger, to say nothing of the teams with only Joe Mauer or Stephen Vogt at this point, are going to lose whatever chances they might have had with their shortcomings at the catcher position. {jcomments on}
Unless you were really out of reach for the Christmas holiday, you know by now that Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka has in fact been posted by the Rakuten Eagles so that he can get out of his contract with them and sign with a MLB team to pitch in the US in 2014.
Now the great debate on where Tanaka and his agent Casey Close will choose to sign.
And really there are 31 choices because the new posting agreement between MLB and the Japanese league limits the posting fee – the money given to the Eagles as compensation – to $20 million when it used to be an auction where the right would go to the highest bidding team. If you remember just a few years ago when Yu Darvish was posted, the Texas Rangers won that right with a bid of $51.7 million (and there were reportedly other clubs near the $50 million mark).
So how many teams are interested in signing Tanaka? Really for just the $20 M every single MLB club should call Close and ask to negotiate. All 30 clubs should be willing to pay $20 million, but let’s take a quick look at:
You could argue that every team needs a starting pitcher who is potentially as good as Darvish. Remember that he is not an older pitcher. Tanaka is just 25 years old like Darvish, so offering him a six or seven year contract has a very reasonable expectation of full value throughout the life of the contract.
Here is my short list of teams that need to sign Tanaka:
Kansas City Royals – definitely took a step up last year but their starting rotation is still not championship caliber and they have to replace Ervin Santana. Signing Tanaka would enable the Royals to go toe to toe with the Detroit Tigers.
Cleveland Indians – they need to replace Ubaldo Jimenez to compete against the Tigers but the Indians spent a lot of money last year and didn’t get the years they hoped for from Bourn and Swisher. Will they do it again?
The Pittsburgh Pirates finally had a good season and their fans responded and while they have some excellent prospects on the way they should sign Tanaka and make sure they get back to the playoffs in 2014.
The Baltimore Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays both have poor rotations that will not compete for the AL East crown but Tanaka would go a long way towards putting them in shouting distance.
And again, while all 30 teams want Tanaka, we don’t know who REALLY wants him – here are a few teams I think might step up to battle you know who:
Seattle Mariners – just signing Robinson Cano isn’t enough to really compete with the Rangers, Angels and Athletics. Reuniting Tanaka with former Eagles teammate Hisashi Iwakuma might be. With Felix Hernandez, Iwakuma and Tanaka, they certainly would have the best 1-2-3 SP in the division.
Chicago Cubs – no their offense is not quite ready, but Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler and Albert Amora will make their MLB debuts in 2014 or 2015 and more importantly, Theo Epstein and the club owners need to ignite their fan base with a better view of what is to come and signing Tanaka would certainly do that.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim – will Arte Moreno spend another 100 million plus dollars on a contract this year? Doubtful from a financial standpoint, but the Angels' rotation is hurting and what could be better for Moreno and the Halos than seeing Tanaka fans drive down from Los Angeles to Anaheim? One additional thought that really makes this idea sing – can you imagine any television set in Japan off on the new national holiday when Tanaka is starting for the Angels against Darvish for the Rangers? I can’t either.
Okay, let’s go to the last group.
Right now, there is only one sure team at the table. Not only do the New York Yankees need help with their starting pitching, but they have the purse to beat any other bids for Tanaka. Under the tax threshold be damned. They are the YANKEES.
Some of you wondered why I said 31 choices.
There is only one person who gets to choose from all the suitors – Tanaka (and wife, Japanese idol and pop recording star Mai Satoda) can actually choose where they want to live/pitch for the next six or seven years. That has never been the case before for a star pitcher in Japan coming to play Major League Baseball in the United States. {jcomments on}
We still have a few weeks left in the 2013 MLB regular season and hopefully your team is still in the hunt for glory and prizes. But just a week after the regular season ends, my favorite league of the year (and I see action in five seasonal leagues each year) will begin play.
The Arizona Fall League, AFL for short, is THE developmental league for major league baseball. Consider just a few of these numbers for the league’s 21-year history:
So let’s take a look at who we will see make their AFL debuts in 2013. First, for those not familiar with the league setup, there are six AFL teams whose rosters are populated by players from five major league teams. Here is the player eligibility as defined by MLB, who runs this league:
Roster size is established at 35 players per team.
Each major league organization is required to provide seven players subject to the following eligibility requirements:
• All Triple-A and Double-A players are eligible provided they are on Double-A rosters no later than August 15.
• Each organization is permitted to send two Class A Advanced-level players in addition to the current allowance of two “A-exempt” players (who are under contract as of August 15). Foreign players are allowed as long as the player is not on his native country’s primary protected player list.
• No players with more than one year active or two years total of credited major league service as of August 31 (including major league disabled list time) are eligible but a team may select one player picked in the most recently concluded Major League Rule 5 Draft.
• Each team is allotted 20 pitchers but only 15 are designated “eligible” each game day.
Here are the six AFL teams for 2013 with their home ballpark and the five MLB teams sending them players:
EAST Division
Mesa Solar Sox, playing at Hohokam Park in Mesa (Angels, Athletics, Cubs, Nationals, Tigers)
Salt River Rafters, playing at Salt River Fields in Scottsdale (Blue Jays, Cardinals, Diamondbacks, Rays, Rockies)
Scottsdale Scorpions, playing at Scottsdale Stadium (Braves, Giants, Mets, Pirates, Yankees)
WEST Division
Glendale Desert Dogs, playing at Camelback Ranch (Dodgers, Marlins, Reds, Twins, White Sox)
Peoria Javelinas, playing at Surprise Stadium (Astros, Mariners, Padres, Phillies, Royals)
Surprise Saguaros, playing at Surprise Stadium (Brewers, Indians, Orioles, Rangers, Red Sox)
Because Peoria Stadium and the Mariners and Padres clubhouses are undergoing renovation, there won’t be a team playing in Peoria, so there will be two teams sharing the facilities at Surprise Stadium and complex.
Play will begin on Tuesday, October 8 and continue through Thursday, November 14 with the one-game league championship between the division winners on Saturday, November 17 at Scottsdale Stadium. That game and the Rising Stars All-Star game, which will be played on Saturday, November 2 at Surprise Stadium, will likely be televised on the MLB Network as they were last year and are must see TV for serious roto players and baseball enthusiasts – unless of course you can join us down here and see the game in person (as will all the attendees of the Arizona First Pitch Forum).
25 of MLB.com's current Top 100 Prospects will be on AFL rosters this fall, including at least two first-round players from the June draft – Chicago Cubs 3B Kris Bryant (out of San Diego State University) and Miami Marlins 3B Colin Moran (out of North Carolina University). The current number one ranked prospect, Minnesota Twins OF Byron Buxton, will be playing for the Glendale Desert Dogs.
I will post a short preview of each team in following columns in the AFL BLOG, but if you needed one additional nugget to get down here and scout your future players – two-thirds of the Cubs outfield of the future, Albert Amora and Jorge Soler, will be playing for the Mesa Solar Sox. {jcomments on}