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DownloadLord Zola’s questions for his Knights this week were about Ron Shandler’s new monthly rotisserie contest (see details at RonShandler.com). Had they entered a team and what did they think about the contest and their strategy to win a one-month competition?
For those of you who didn’t enter the contest or haven’t read about it (see MastersBlog), the contest is a 4x4, 30 man roster for one month’s play with 23 starters and seven reserves who must fit the salary cap with prices based on performance to date.
Most of the answers were the obvious two camps – those who had entered and those who weren’t aware of the contest or didn’t have time to enter before the June 30 deadline. And several shared their teams.
While I hadn’t entered the contest, I did look at the replies as they entered my inbox. And when Lawr Michaels shared his squad that had only one reserve pitcher, I made my first reply to the group – “looks very short on pitching.” This quickly turned into a discussion of strategy where I was somewhat surprised by the opposition to my suggestion that with twice a week lineup changes – Monday and Friday – most of the reserves should be pitchers.
This is not something I suggested without quite a bit of experience with the twice a week format. You see, the FBPC main event which debuted this year with a $50,000 grand prize as well as the now defunct WCOFB both used the Mon/Fri lineups, as has Mastersballer Greg Morgan. In fact, Greg has two teams both in the top ten in the FBPC this year, one with his father and one named Captain Morgan (thus you can easily guess his partner). Our Captain Morgan collaboration twice won our league and finished in the top ten overall in the WCOFB.
So I feel pretty strongly that the strategy for Shandler’s contest would be to have five of my seven reserves be pitchers so I could maximize my number of starts each week. When I had a good SP with a two-start week, I would keep him in my lineup both periods. When one of the starts is risky for a non-stud starter, I could sit him that period. And, if I didn’t have enough good to great starts, I could play an additional reliever since the category is not saves but saves + holds. In fact, since there is no WHIP category (W, K, Sv+HLD, ERA), both the high strikeout setup relievers as well as high strikeout starters who walk too many but have decent ERAs are more playable.
Pitchers are a less stable group than hitters, and in a one-month contest you should be able to choose hitters with a higher reliability of loss of playing time than in a season-long event. Of course, that means that you should maximize roster versatility with very good players with multi-position eligibility, so Matt Carpenter would be high on my list regardless of his salary. I would also carry a player with catcher eligibility that plays another position just in case. With Evan Gattis now on the DL, my first choice there would be Cleveland’s Yan Gomes.
It will be interesting to see the composition of the winning rosters in August (the contest extended a few games to compensate for the All-Star break). I suspect they will have a minimum of 13 pitchers on their rosters.
Now I will disclose the reason I did not enter the contest, as I told Ron and then sent to Todd and the Knights. I play in 13 leagues and currently lead seven of those with only two teams out of contention, and have even made the decision to not be in Las Vegas for the high stakes FF drafts in September to fully concentrate on my baseball efforts.
Flags fly forever – and most of those have $ instead of stars on them. {jcomments on}
The MLB season, and games for at least rotisserie leagues hit the halfway point over the coming weekend, and that begs my question: Do you really know where your team stands?
I don’t mean first place--or fourth place specifically--although it’s always nice to be competing for the title or a spot “in the money.” I mean where are your players in each category? Are they accumulating the counting stats at an average rate for your league, or have some early adjustments put your squad firmly on track to gain points in any/some of the categories?
It not good enough to say a team is 12 home runs behind the team above in the standings. That team be pulling away/gaining at a good pace over the last few weeks. So, knowing the breakdowns in the counting categories is very helpful in not only setting your lineup on a weekly basis but also in evaluating if/when you should make a trade to shore up a particular deficiency.
Some weeks ago I noted that I only had a handful or points in the stolen base column in the Tout Mixed Draft League that I am in this year. I wasn’t concerned at that time about the slow start because my team had Jose Altuve at 2B, Jean Segura at SS, and both Austin Jackson and Bryce Harper in the outfield. Together with at least a large handful each from Paul Goldschmidt, Todd Frazier, and Kyle Seager I thought I would be fine in that column and rejected a trade offer for speed.
After steadily gaining on the teams in front of me--capped by a twelve bag week thanks to Segura and to having Jackson back from the DL--I am now in 5th place in the category with 71, just three swipes below three teams ahead of my team. And though I will never overtake Greg Ambrosius (Stats/NFBC), who has 95 after last week, (well unless he sells off Jacoby Ellsbury or Ben Revere in a trade) I am just fine with fourteen points in the category.
To the point, for players you may have drafted, it is pretty much time to look at a more realistic projection of what they will contribute to your team this year. Keeping it simple, you could either multiply the counting stats by two, or you could add what they have at the end of this week with what Todd projects for the balance of the year. With players acquired by trade or as free agents, look at their rates of production and see whether that has been steady or like your other players whether there has been an increase/decline because of playing time increases/decreases.
This may be some extra work to be sure but you will find it will certainly pay off in the next month or two as you get your team ready for the home stretch.
Remember that as Oakland General Manager Billy Beane has said the season is really three separate periods:
April and May – to see how the players fit together and whether roster changes will help the team
June and July – to implement any roster changes – perhaps a trade or bringing up players from the minor leagues to get the team to function better;
And finally August and September to have the revised roster set and ready to play its way to the division lead (or get into the money in the case of our rotisserie leagues).
Yes plenty of time to correct many teams but not enough to waste time if there are changes you need to make to your team.{jcomments on}
Well at least if you are lucky enough to have him on your Farm or Reserve squad. But what about those of us in leagues where he was available?
As I noted in a forum thread, the only question about whether Yasiel Puig (prn -pweeg) was an “All In” player in any given free agent pool is whether he will continue to get at-bats once Matt Kemp, Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier are all available in who knows how many weeks?
But over the weekend, Dodgers manager Don Mattingly told reporters that GM Ned Colletti told him to “play the players that give you the best chance of winning a game.”
While no one expects Puig to hit .400 every week, it is hard to believe there is a game where he doesn’t improve the Dodgers' lineup. Vin Scully, who has been with the Dodgers longer than most of you have been on the planet, had an interesting observation over the weekend, saying that in one week Puig had shown off all five tools and that even really dramatic players often take a month to get a chance to show they excel in all those things.
In addition to the average, Puig hit four home runs and had ten RBI, both of which tied the major league record for a player's first five games. While he hasn’t stolen a base yet, Puig has shown his speed on the bases and in the field. He also had two memorable assists from right field, throwing back to first to double off a runner and then launching a missile to third base to get another runner.
So yeah, the guy who hit over .500 in spring training and over .300 at Double-A Jacksonville before being called up last Monday is a pretty good player. What does that mean for fantasy owners? And how much did it cost to roster him this weekend if in fact he was available?
Well, in the JBL league, which is one of our first draft prep articles of the year giving subscribers pick-by-pick selections for 30 rounds (paralleling the NFBC) and where Todd and I comment on each of our picks, Puig went for $625.
In the NFBC Main Event leagues which drafted late in March, he was rostered in every one of those leagues after his spring training performance. His owners were looking for a lottery ticket this year after Bryce Harper and Mike Trout helped so many teams last year. But in two “super” leagues ($5000 entry) where he was available, he went for $425 and $560. And in 57 NFBC Online Championship leagues (12-team leagues), he went for an average of $469. In fact, most all of those bids were between $300-700 with only four bids exceeding that – three in the 700's and one at $900; and only four bids lower than $300, the lowest at $212.
In the FBPC main event where Greg Morgan and I pilot the “Captain Morgan” team, we had rostered Puig at the March (online) draft. And inserting him last week helped us move into first place, as homers and runs were our weakest categories.
In a “First Pitch” satellite for that competition that drafted online in mid-January, Puig was not drafted. While we were short on FAAB, our $263 was higher than most of our competitors and I suggested we block all the teams we could with a bid of $245. In that league we were low in HR and RBI and I thought this would be our best shot at improving in those areas. We were lucky that none of the owners who were back in the pack and had bigger purses were interested, and won at $245. The underbid was $180, so we spent more than we had to but I would have felt worse if we were just a little short on a lower bid. So we hope that by inserting him into the lineup this week, and hopefully keeping him there, we can gain a few needed points and get to 2nd place. We have been shifting between 2nd and 4th throughout the first few months.
It should be noted that in the two NL keeper leagues I play in, Puig was rostered as a minor leaguer in the first week in April.
I hope that many of you were able to draft or add him – he is a fun player to watch burst onto the scene, much like Mike Trout was last year. {jcomments on}
If your home leagues have a minor league draft (and really they should – so much fun to manage that part of building a franchise), you need to be prepared for Thursday evening.
Get a hall pass at home, stock the refrigerator and snack drawer, have a pizza delivered or put one in your own oven. In short, do everything to make sure you have Thursday evening set up so you are ready to watch the first two rounds of the MLB First-Year Player Draft live at 7 PM ET on the MLB Network.
If you are familiar with the names or resumes of the top draft prospects, you want to make a note about which team they are going to. If not, you will get a great introduction to several future major league stars – maybe even players on your fantasy teams. If you want some really good information before the draft, the MLB Network has a one-hour special that will introduce you to the top-50 prospects.
Of course there are several mock drafts out there, but the reality is that no one knows exactly how this draft will unfold. Will the Houston Astros try and save money again by getting their first-round pick to sign for the low end of the range allotted? This would save precious draft dollars they might use to increase their offers to other draft picks, especially when some of the high school players have college commitments that you want to buy them out of.
Will Oklahoma University’s Jonathan Gray, thought to be going first or second in this draft, have his first contract lowered by sliding down the first round due to a failed drug test for using Adderall? MLB clubs wouldn’t care much IF he has a physical condition that would give him an exemption for that medicine but will they have enough time do all the research?
Will Indiana State pitcher Sean Manaea, who was widely considered one of the top pitching prospects coming into this year, drop out of the first round due to medical concerns about a hip injury which caused him to miss almost all of this season?
This is even more interesting in my AL-only keeper league, where we get five minor league draft picks each year and many of the owners in the league are willing to risk a pick on a player who is very highly regarded. The down side of course is that such a player might be drafted by an NL team, so you have nothing to show for the pick. But the flip side is that Manny Machado was drafted several years before he was in the draft and I drafted Mike Trout after he was drafted by the Angels and played in the Arizona Rookie League, where I got to see him play in person a year before his breakout minor league season.
Among this year’s draft prospects, all of these players are already rostered in my AL league:
Mark Appel, RHP, Stanford University
Kris Bryant, 3B, University of San Diego
Jonathan Gray, RHP, Oklahoma University
Sean Manaea, LHP, Indiana State University
Colin Moran, 3B, University of North Carolina
Clint Frazier, OF, Loganville High School, Georgia
Austin Meadows, OF, Grayson High School, Georgia
Kohl Stewart, RHP, St. Pius X High School, Texas
Ryne Stanek, RHP, Arkansas University
Of course none of these are on my Farm Roster, so hopefully NL clubs will grab all of them. {jcomments on}
Perry will be posting live comments on the MLB Draft on Thursday evening in the Prospects and Minor League Discussion Forum
The calendar is just about to turn a page and with some players on your fantasy team(s), maybe you should too.
The keys to both trading and cut/add decisions in weekly transaction leagues are knowledge and patience. But with one-third of the season now already in the scorebooks, patience is no longer a virtue if you drafted a furry caterpillar unless they have or are emerging with useful wings.
You should know about those players by now but you might have added some in May that are on the line and those require care in handling lest you drop a player who is about to blossom. A key here will be projected playing time. As we have said in many articles over the years, the key to AL or NL-only leagues is having as many everyday players as you can. Maximize your at-bats. Let’s take a look at LABR’s AL auction league that I reported on back in March. I have the second-best pitching points in the league but am probably sixth/seventh in hitting points. So let’s view the at-bats accumulated by each team through yesterday (5/28).
AB rank |
Team |
AB |
Standings |
1 |
KFFL.com |
2234 |
3rd |
2 |
SiriusXM |
2167 |
5th |
3 |
WFBaseball* |
2156 |
1st |
4 |
Fangraphs |
2108 |
7th |
5 |
Baseball HQ |
2080 |
6th |
6 |
Colton/Wolfman |
2030 |
8th |
7 |
Mastersball |
1944 |
2nd |
8 |
USA Today |
1808 |
12th |
9 |
NFBC/Stats |
1790 |
10th |
10 |
Rotowire |
1755 |
9th |
11 |
Yahoo Sports |
1743 |
4th |
12 |
ESPN.com |
1602 |
11th |
You can see that two of the top three teams – Nick Minnix of KFFL and Larry Schechter, whose upcoming book will be titled Winning Fantasy Baseball, have a lot of at-bats in their lineup and thus 44 and 38 hitting points respectively. And, my team is suffering with just 31 hitting points – actually higher than might be presumed from having less than 2000 at-bats after a third of the games have been played.
So who are my fringe players and what can I do with them?
Well, let’s take a look at my lineup and you can spot the problems:
C – Pierzynski & Doumit
CI – Butler, Seager & Moreland
MI – Altuve, Andrus & Y. Navarro
OF – Cespedes, L. Martin, Nava, Endy Chavez & Jeff Baker
UT – Gillaspie
Pretty clear that I have a poor collection of outfielders as far as producing counting stats. Injuries to Cespedes, who is now back, and Justin Maxwell, still resting somewhere, were the major culprits. Leonys Martin, who had really developed last year and was having a terrific spring, did not seize the CF job for the Rangers and shares at-bats with Craig Gentry. The other two-thirds drafted were Juan Rivera, who looked like he was going to be starting for the Yankees, and Casper Wells, who was in the rotation in the Seattle pasture.
Fortunately, I drafted Daniel Nava and Cole Gillaspie in the reserve rounds as they have at least filled in. But what I really need to do is find a way to trade one of my starting pitchers for an outfielder who will gain more points than Chavez or Baker. I could try and package Gillaspie there for a team weak at either 3B or CI or pray that he will get at least part time at-bats when Gordon Beckham returns in the next week or two or deal one of my first basemen for an outfielder with the same hope.
Another alternative would be to trade my only closer, Joe Nathan. I currently have seven points in saves with 17 but I would lose immediate points to the two teams with 16 and eventually to Brandon Funston/Yahoo, who has 12 and Tom Wilhelmsen. In addition, Nathan might well get me two more points with an 18 and 19 just barely in front of me. It seems to me penny wise and pound foolish to deal one of my Aces – Chris Sale or Alex Cobb - as that will drastically weaken the other four pitching categories. The flip side is that it is hard to get much of an outfielder for the likes of Mark Buehrle (although he has pitched much better in his last few starts), Jason Hammel, Dylan Axelrod, Jerome Williams or Jose Quintana.
But Pierzynski has just returned from a DL stint. Baker is getting more at-bats for the Rangers (and if they are at Moreland’s expense they are still on my team). Cespedes still isn’t 100% but is improving. Nava at least until/if Victorino is back is getting more at-bats.
So unless a perfect trade arrives in my e-mail, it may well be that the best course of action is to wait and see.
See what happens with Gillaspie.
See how fast Maxwell returns to the Astros.
Because in this particular case, trading from my strength will likely cost me more pitching points than I can make up on offense. And, the emergence of Mitch Moreland this year should soon be accompanied by the return to form of Billy Butler. My best course of action may be to see if I can get more at-bats without sacrificing pitching. {jcomments on}