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DownloadAssorted Rants, Rumblings and Ruminations from the Mind of a “So-Called” Expert
I’ll start this off by saying I still love this part-time hobby, full-time obsession we call fantasy baseball. I have often pondered what it is going to take for me to quit playing and rigor mortis has usually been my conclusion. That said, lately I have been scratching my head, trying to figure out if the game has passed me by and I need to rethink a few things in terms of my approach.
In a nutshell, I believe fantasy baseball should be a game of skill, first coming up with an idea of how each player will perform, be it formally with a spreadsheet or in a more Zen-like manner, based on experience, common sense and intuition. Then this performance should be ranked, again be it formally or informally in a relative manner, this guy is better than that guy who in turn is better than the guy over there. Next, you assemble your roster, procuring as much potential as possible, combining your player ranking with game theory. Finally, you manage your roster during the season, making moves along the way to improve your team via the means available to you. I don’t like to put a percentage on what is most important, but I do feel if you consider the process to be three parts, what you do before the draft/auction should be most important, followed by the draft/auction with the in-season management coming in third. This is not a reflection of the time spent on each, just the relative importance I not so humbly believe each portion should contribute to the success of your team. I am cognizant of the fact that rules have evolved to sway the scales to in-season management, but that’s OK.
Back in the day, all one needed to succeed in all this was having better access to player information. Forget projections and valuation. It didn’t matter what hot prospects were on the way. If you knew who was playing before the other guys, you won simply because you had more at-bats and innings pitched. Stars and scrubs was the way to go, because you knew the scrubs better than everyone else. In season, you knew the injury replacement and role changes first, which is all that was necessary to win. Their BABIP didn’t matter. The difference in velocity between their four-seamer and circle change was moot. Playing time was the key. Back then there was no MLB Extra Innings or SiriusXM, let alone the Internet. The daily notes section of USA Today was the fantasy lifeblood! The Sunday notes column that Peter Gammons wrote in the Boston Globe was a fantasy player’s dream. Baseball Weekly, the Sporting News, these were the equivalent of Rotoworld and Fangraphs.
But then Al Gore invented the Internet and things began to change. Who remembers Mosaic? How about Nando net? If it were not for Usenet and recreation.sports.baseball.fantasy, I would not be writing this and you would not be reading this now. Mosaic was the first Internet browser. For those not familiar get this, you could only look at ONE PAGE AT A TIME! There were no tabs, no jump links, let alone bookmarks or favorites. But man, was it GREAT! I suspect those of us in school with access to computers had a bit of an advantage over those less fortunate. Nando.net was the news portal and featured s huge sports portion, replete with everything a fantasy enthusiast needed in terms of stats, box scores, lineups, etc. Usenet was the home of newsgroups, which were the precursor to message forums. The unfortunate downfall of Usenet was the proliferation of pornography SPAM.
The primary influence the Internet had on our hobby was bringing information to the masses. Simply knowing who was playing was no longer the key to success as everybody was soon privy to that. Be it via Compuserve, Prodigy or AOL, if you played fantasy baseball, you subscribed to one of those services. I have fond memories of traveling with the first thing I did after checking into my room was unplugging the phone and plugging in my laptop, then crossing my fingers there was a local AOL access number. Anyway, this all sparked a revolution of sorts and changed, for the better, the way the game was played.
Since everyone now knew who was playing and their stats, the new completive advantage emanated from superior player evaluation, in part pioneered by our colleague Ron Shandler in concert with player valuation, with luminaries such as Alex Patton and John Benson at the forefront. Success was now borne from refined player projection and valuation theory. And I’d like to think that this is still important to this day, as suggested earlier.
Of course, with the Internet explosion, what used to be niche analysis is now in the mainstream. The advantage you used to have because you knew to look past ERA is now minimized. Most everyone knows a hitter with a BABIP higher or lower than their career norm will regress. That said, just because something is commonplace, that doesn’t mean everyone is equally adept at the analysis, evaluation and application. This is where the wheat is separated from the chaff.
The problem I have with today’s game is all this is now seemingly moot due to the incredible increase in player injuries, especially in the single league, AL and NL only formats. I know, there’s no crying in baseball, injuries can happen to everyone and it is up to the owner to rise above their ill fate and overcome – I get that. But it is frustrating as all get out that months….not days….not weeks….but months of preparation can be for naught due to things completely out of one’s control. Again, this is just a game. I am not less of a person because I did not win my fantasy league. It’s just frustrating. The balance of what I personally deem as most important has shifted to in-season management deciding leagues out of necessity, due to injuries.
Additionally, and this is the part that I am re-thinking, another repercussion of the injury madness is salient analysis is becoming secondary to whimsical gut feels. I have a saying I like to use when it comes to fantasy baseball: I’d rather be wrong for the right reasons than right for the wrong reasons. The idea is the process is more important than the result. Sometimes, the result is not reflective of the process. But, for the longest time, being right 51% of the time led to overall success. Lately, at least it seems anyway, I have been victim of what poker players term bad beats. The odds were in my favor, the cards just didn’t fall my way.
At the end of the day, I know my little saying is still the right way of looking at things. The process is still paramount. but perhaps the means I calculate the odds could be refined.
Methinks it is time to start re-thinking the reasons.{jcomments on}
As you likely know by now, DraftStreet.com is promoting a bi-monthly FreeRoll contest for Mastersball.com readers, the second of which is scheduled for tonight, Friday April 27. If you want to participate and try to win your share of the $350 up for grabs, CLICK HERE, but hurry as lineups lock at 7:05 PM ET/4:05 PM PT.
The format is a salary cap game where you fit fourteen players under a cap and accumulate points based on their Friday night performance. A couple of weeks ago, in a FreeRoll set up exclusively for Mastersball.com, our own Ryan Carey took home the big prize of $100 while I finished a respectable third, adding $50 to my account. Look out Ryan; I’m out to get you this week!
As I discussed when I shared my strategy for the initial FreeRoll, I plan on sticking to some basic principles when selecting my players. They are as follows:
Thinking about the contest in the two weeks between promotions, I have three more rules of thumb I am going to heed:
In the inaugural contest, I went with two starters and their associated closers. It did not take me long to learn that it is starting pitching that will rack up the points most nights and it is not guaranteed your closer gets into the game. Having three starting pitchers assures you of getting points in a roster spot that could be occupied by a closer that does not even warm up. The downside is starting pitchers are the highest priced entities in the game so you really need to hit on your pitching as well as find the bargain bats so you can stay under the cap.
An idea that I want to investigate for future promotions is finding a starting pitcher edge using umpire tendencies. In depth data is kept with respect to how an umpire calls a game. Now, before you think this is the holy grail of this sort of competition, please realize each umpire is behind the plate for only 30-40 games a season and for every pitcher friendly arbiter, there will be one not so kind. Then consider that there are some pitchers you are not going to start regardless of the man in blue calling balls and strikes. The point is, the opportunities to deploy this tactic will be limited, but when they in fact exist, you can save some significant salary cap space. For those playing more than just the promotional FreeRolls, you may want to do a Internet search on umpire data to find a day you can gain this competitive advantage. My intention is to elaborate on this topic in my column accompanying the next promotional FreeRoll.
Here is the squad I selected for tonight’s contest. If I make any last minute changes, I will post them in the comments below. The name of my entry is ToddZ. I will discuss it in terms of how I put the team together then at the end, the players by position and salary will be listed.
My first step was deciding on three starters and the closer. At first blush, three arms piqued my interest, all with home tilts: Ricky Romero (TOR) versus Blake Beavan (SEA), Clayton Kershaw (LAD) versus Ross Detwiler (WAS) and Tommy Hanson (ATL) versus A.J. Burnett (PIT). All the home teams should be favored, playing rather suspect offenses. As I proceeded to fill out my hitters, I didn’t think there would be ample salary to fill each spot with a player I was comfortable using, so I looked for another hurler. I opted to go against one of my rules of thumb and am using Drew Pomeranz (COL) versus Chris Schwinden (NYM). The obvious hope is the potent Rockie attack is able to get to the Mets’ rookie, making his 2012 debut, giving Pomeranz the win. For the closer, I am counting on Francisco Cordero to save the victory for Romero.
The next step was going through each position, starting at the bottom of the salaries in an effort to find a lower priced gem fitting the above criteria (L-R/R-L , at home in a hitter’s park). My goal was to find batter’s under $5000 or so. If I was unable to find someone at a position, I left it empty until the next pass, when I had a better idea of how much salary I had to play with. I added John Buck (MIA), Gaby Sanchez (MIA) and Eric Thames (TOR). The Marlins’ Buck and Sanchez are both righties scheduled to face southpaw Joe Saunders. Lefty Thames has a date with righty Beavan.
I then raised the limit to around $6000 and added Brandon Phillips (CIN) and Giancarlo Stanton (MIA). Righty Phillips has lefty Wandy Rodriguez (HOU) on the docket while the right-handed Stanton hopes to get off the snide against Saunders.
At this point, I decide to go back through the lowest salaries and see if there were some starters that did not meet all of the desired criteria, but still made sense to play. Welcome to the fold, Marlon Byrd (BOS). The new Red Sox centerfielder is on the road, facing fellow right-hander John Danks, but the salary was dirt cheap and US Cellular is favorable, plus Byrd should have chances to score and knock in teammates as the Boston attack is warming up.
Now the fun begins as I get to fill in with some upper echelon sticks. When it comes to the elite, I am not as concerned about L/R and R/L. I’ll take guys in good hitting parks, facing weaker pitching or in a strong lineup. David Wright (NYM), Troy Tulowitzki (COL) and Ben Zobrist (TAM) added some star power to the squad. Wright is facing Pomeranz, who I am starting, but I still like the righty third-sackers chances of having a strong night against the raw southpaw. In an effort to counter that, Tulowitzki will hopefully do some damage against fellow righty Schwinden, but he is at home and home is Coors Field. Zobrist is a switch hitter but he is on the road with Matt Harrison (TEX) on the bump. Texas is a great hitter’s park so Zobrist should be fine.
I was left with one utility spot, so the obvious step is going to the amount left and choosing the best player left that can fit under the cap. It is important to note that the selection does not have to be the highest priced player left, just the best player. Though, if you leave a significant amount of salary unspent, you should take the time to make sure you can’t upgrade another spot. The final roster spot went to the switch hitting Jed Lowrie (HOU) as he will dig in against Mike Leake (CIN) on the road, but the Great American Ballpark is a hitter’s paradise and I am not a Leake fan.
TEAM SUMMARY: |
C: John Buck ($3768) |
1B: Gaby Sanchez ($5187) |
2B: Brandon Phillips ($5974) |
3B: David Wright ($8057) |
SS: Troy Tulowitzki ($9148) |
OF Eric Thames ($4347) |
OF: Giancarlo Stanton ($6024) |
OF Marlon Byrd ($2543) |
U: Ben Zobrist ($6561) |
U: Jed Lowrie ($6030) |
SP: Clayton Kershaw ($16,531) |
SP: Ricky Romero ($14306) |
RP: Francisco Cordero ($1956) |
P: Drew Pomeranz ($9409) |
TOTAL SALARY: $99,841 |
{jcomments on}
As you have likely seen, Mastersball and DraftStreet.com are working together on a promotion. For details about the Mastersball $300 Freeroll, click HERE . In brief, the fine folks at DraftStreet.com have arranged for a contest just for Mastersball’s fans. It costs nothing to enter and someone is going to win $100. Six others will also earn a cash prize. I promise, you will never have better odds.
As part of the promotion, I am entering a team into the contest and will detail my thought processes. The idea is to assemble the best team possible with the catch being each player is assigned a salary in proportion to their potential and you need to build a team under a cap.
Here are the roster requirements and scoring system:
Nothing really stands out with respect to taking advantage of a certain profile of player. Some points leagues award only one point for a steal but with DraftStreet awarding two, speedsters can be as useful as power hitters, though power hitters still are preferred since a homer scores a minimum of seven points unto itself.
Later in the season, I will take the time to work out a means to rank the available players in terms of bang for the buck. Today, as I get a feel for the game, I am going to keep it rather simple, identifying five criteria for hitters and three for pitchers to be used to filter my players.
HITTERS
PITCHERS
Conspicuous by its absence is a review of how batters fare against specific pitchers and vice versa. I'll save this for another time as it deserves its own space, but the sample size of hitter-pitcher matchups is too small to be useful. To be honest, this is the point where I hope to gain an edge over those that overemphasize this type of analysis.
In brief, the desire to use hitters in hitter's parks and pitchers in pitcher's parks is obvious. Studies have shown that a player's skills are up to 10% superior at home as opposed to on the road which is an edge I want to capture. Finally, it is another given that right-handed hitters fare better against southpaws and left-handed hitters enjoy more success against right-handers. The gameplan will be to have each player meet as many of these three criteria as possible, plus be matched up against weaker competition.
My initial sense is getting starting pitchers that have great games is paramount to finishing with a score among the day's best so my first step is going to be deciding on a couple of ace starters. For the reliever, I will look to pair up one of the starter's closer. For the last picther spot, I would prefer a starter since you don't know if the closer is going to get in the game. However, in the likely event I cannot afford a third starter, I will pair up the other starter.
After that, the plan is to start at the bottom of each position and find the first hitter than meets as many of the five hitting criteria as possible. By filling in with the cheapest options, I can then go pricey with the utilities and bounce salary around until the cap is reached with the best possible lineup.
Without further ado, here is my entry into today's Mastersball $300 Freeroll:
C: Carlos Ruiz, PHI ($5771) - Ruiz is at home and Citizens Back Park favors offense. R.A. Dickey pitches for the opposing Mets. By this time, the Phillies should have faced Dickey enough to make the knuckler less of a challenge to hit. Ruiz and Dickey are both righties, but this edge is lost with a knuckler.
1B: Adam Lind, TOR ($6591) - Lefty Lind facing righty Tommy Hunter in the Rogers Center -- all systrems go.
2B: Dan Uggla, ATL ($6845) - While Turner Field is not particularly hitter friendly, Uggla has the power to hit it out anywhere and the righty is facing a southpaw in Randy Wolf that has been known to allow a gopher ball or two.
3B: Mike Moustakas, KC ($5694) - Moustakas should be able to put the ball in play against Derek Lowe.
SS: Jimmy Rollins, PHI ($6753) - The switch-hitting Rollins joins teammate Ruiz, squaring off against Dickey.
OF1: Curtis Granderson, NYY ($7797) - The Grandy Man has a good chance of taking Ervin Santana deep with the short porch in The Bronx.
OF2: Eric Thames, TOR ($5484) - Another lefty to face the less than imposing Hunter.
OF3: Alex Gordon, KC ($5438) - Like Moustakas, not looking for a homer but a couple of knocks and some production. Gordon should be able to at least make good contact off of Lowe.
UT1: Juan Rivera, LAD ($7164) - Ah, the majesty of a one-day game. Rivera eats up lefties and Clayton Richard is no Clayton Kershaw.
UT2: Adam Jones, BAL ($7667) - Jones is the only hitter to go against two of the primary criteria as he is on the road and facing a fellow righ-hander. I'll take my chance Jones can get on and is looking to run this season. Plus, there was no one I liked better in the price range and I could not find amy more switches I liked more.
SP1: Felix Hernandez, SEA ($16485) - The King at home facing the Athletics, what's not to like?
SP2: Matt Cain, SF (14267) - Cain in AT&T facing the less than imposing Pirate attack, sign me up.
RP: Brian Wilson, SF ($2118) - Closers are cheap since there is a chance they will not pitch, but my thesis is if I feel the starter will do well, the closer should have a chance to do his thing.
P: Brandon League, SEA ($1903) - As the season wears on, I hope to be use a third starter, but there were no bargains with sticks sufficient to free up salary.
There you have it. Total salary is $99977, $23 under the limit.
Here is your chance to teach The Master a lesson, and win a few bucks along the way. So hurry, and click HERE for details.
Good luck!!{jcomments on}