Salient is an excellent design with a fresh approach for the ever-changing Web. Integrated with Gantry 5, it is infinitely customizable, incredibly powerful, and remarkably simple.
DownloadAssorted Rants, Rumblings and Ruminations from the Mind of a “So-Called” Expert
This is a simple game. You project the player, you rank the player, you draft the player.
With a hat-tip to Durham Bulls Manager Skip Riggins, that’s fantasy baseball in a nutshell. Sure, there are a plethora of formats with all sorts of rules. Regardless, it all begins with how one feels a player will perform.
Player expectations aren’t all formulaic. To be honest, most aren’t. They aren’t all a specific stat line either. Some simply frame a guy as about .280 with 20-something homers and 80-90 runs with similar RBI plus a handful of steals in around 500 at bats.
Call it a projection, an expectation, or whatever you want. If you play fantasy baseball, everything is based on how you feel everyone will perform.
Personally, I prefer using an algorithm-driven method. It’s proven effective and it’s my nature. The key is understanding the limitations and not being married to the result. It’s not the projection itself, it’s what you do with it. To be honest, my projection of .282 with 24 HR, 83 RBI, 86 runs and 4 SB in 517 at bats isn’t any better than that referenced earlier. I know that and believe it. Yet, I strive to produce the best foundation for drafting in the industry.
I see a projection as an average of all plausible outcomes. One way to look at it is the average of all outcomes if a season were played a gazillion times. These would include some instances the player getting hurt opening day and others where he plays nearly every game. Over a gazillion years, a lot can happen.
Here’s an example, albeit oversimplified.
A. 5% chance the player gets hurt early
.284 with 5 HR, 16 RBI, 17 runs and a steal in 100 AB
B. 15% chance the player has a career year and gets more playing time than ever
.298 with 35 HR, 108 RBI, 110 runs and 7 SB in 625 AB
C. 30% chance the player has an IL stint or two, with lower than normal numbers
.269 with 19 HR, 69 RBI, 72 runs and 3 SB in 478 AB
D. 50% chance the player comes close to the last couple of season’s numbers
.285 with 26 HR, 91 RBI, 94 runs and 4 SB in 550 AB
Determining the weighted average of the above yields the exact line mentioned above: .282 with 24 HR, 83 RBI, 86 runs, 4 SB in 517 AB.
Even this simple example illustrates why the projection is only the starting point. Some touch-and-feel drafters may have an inkling on the player and are willing to pay for B, the career year scenario. Someone else may not weigh the downside risk of A and C and pay for D, which is a bit better than the final projection which factors in the risk.
You’re not drafting the projection; you’re drafting the player with a wide range of plausible outcomes. For me, it’s about knowing what the projection represents and applying that contextually to team needs.
There will be some instances where I’ll be willing to bet on the come and jump the player up my cheat sheet. The above isn’t the ideal example, but for a more injury prone player, I may hedge more towards the lower playing time outcomes and require a decent discount at the draft table. It all depends on my team at the time, or maybe general strategy I wish to deploy.
A winning team is all about balance. Most think of power versus speed or hitting versus pitching in this realm. The balance here is paying for the 90th percentile projection versus needing a discount to invest. Both types of players contribute to a winning roster, with the fulcrum often being league context.
Many fantasy baseball enthusiasts say the reason they don’t do their own projections is not having enough time. What they really mean is the reason they don’t do their own spreadsheet/database driven projections is time. As explained, if you draft a player, you did it based on some level of expectation.
There’s a simple way one can generate their own projections. While there will be skills differences between different sources of projections, they’ll usually all be in the same ballpark. The source of the numbers may disagree, but they’re within the variance intrinsic to the process.
Playing time is the differentiator. Do you want to generate your own projections? Assemble a couple of different sets and drill each stat down to per PA and or per IP, then season with your own estimation of PA or IP. Voila, you have your own projection!
The caveat is, everyone (including yours truly) usually over projects playing time if the model is the average of a gazillion seasons. That said, if everyone is assumed to play more than they should, the relative ranking for fantasy purposes doesn’t change. What changes is the delta between the players, not the order. Generally, the players at the top are assigned more playing time than they should. The effect is more downside risk, more relevant in an auction when you can plan accordingly. In a draft you’re forced to take on the risk at the top. Though, a compiler (someone as much, if not more reliant on volume than skills) can leapfrog a higher skilled player with adequate playing time.
This example was better before this past season, but Francisco Lindor was the perfect player to cite. In his first three full years, Lindor played an average of 158 games, amassing 684 PA in 2016, followed by 723 then 745. It’s extremely rare to repeat 700-plus PA campaigns, much less three-peat. Yet, we all pegged Lindor for another 700-something in 2019. Of course, Lindor was injured early and finished with “only” 654. He was also hurt before the bulk of drafts so it could be considered. What if he got hurt the first week of the season instead? His ranking incorporated the huge level of PA. The key with Lindor is while his skills are obviously excellent, he’s still a compiler, needing volume for top-5 or top-10 ranking. Giving Mike Trout, Ronald Acuna Jr. or Christian Yelich that level of plate appearances makes them $55-plus players.
Note: Look for a refresh of a piece I did on projecting playing time to be posted soon
Future chapters will detail the Mastersball Projection Process. Hopefully this provides a backdrop for a projection and how to look at it when assembling a roster.
This is part of part of the Z-Book, an ongoing compilation of new and refreshed pieces. It's part of the 2020 Mastersball Platinum subscription, available for just $39.95, featuring the industry's earliest and most comprehensive set of player projections.
As you likely know by now, we lost Lawr Michaels on Wednesday morning. After a literal lifetime of looking death in the eyes and blowing smoke in its face, he's moved onto a better place. Those of us here in his former place are so much better off for the all too short time we were blessed by his grace, warmth, sincerity and exuberance.
I've spent most of the past day pondering how to express my feelings, and love for my mate. Lawr used to tell me one of the things he liked about me was I could find a way to write 1200 words on anything. The problem is, it was anything baseball. Funny, I write words for a living and I can't come up with the right ones. Maybe because they don't exist. But, I'll try anyway.
I think the reason I'm struggling is I'm not very good at this sort of thing whereas Lawr was a natural. I'm introverted, especially in public. Lawr was as extroverted as they come, but in a good way. He was the life of the party, but was never looking to be the center of attention, it would just naturally happen. He could carry on conversations with both sides of the table without missing a beat. To his left, he'd quote lines from "The Simpsons", to his right talking about the time he saw the Kinks live, recanting their set song-by-song.
Lawr and I were polar opposites in other ways. He was tall, thin, had long flowing hair and did yoga. I'm short, have consumed far too much pizza, sport a thinning buzz cut and get winded jogging my memory. But yet, we cared for each other like brothers.
Lawr's favorite way of referring to us was as the artist and scientist. We called ourselves, "Zen and Now," and were forever talking about launching a podcast with that name.
Mainly because we were in business together, I saw a side of Lawr not many knew. Our differing approaches often clashed. However, we kept it in the family, always making up. I'd like to think we each taught the other something, Lawr picking up some science while I grew an appreciation for art.
That said, I owe Lawr a huge debt of gratitude for helping me get back on my fantasy feet, first housing Mastersball then graciously agreeing to give up his beloved Creative Sports brand when we merged, it's his friendship I cherish the most. I've never met a more genuine, caring, loving individual.
Family was always first. I had the pleasure of meeting his late wife Cathy and departed son Joey, both of which also left us too soon. Later, I got to know his wife Diane, who was lovingly by his side, comforting him to the end. Lawr took pride in telling people I was one of the few that met all three. While writing that sentence, I think I realized why. It was his way of expressing his fondness for me. Like I said, I'm not very good at this stuff. I should have figured that out a long time ago and figured out a way to reciprocate.
Lawr's influence on the fantasy industry and more importantly our lives has been expressed eloquently by a bevy of friends and colleagues much better at this than I. Below are the links. Plus, if you're on Twitter, grab a box of tissues and search @LawrMichaels.
Brian Walton: The Man and His Brand
Joe Sheehan: Lawr Michaels
Jason Grey, via Jeff Erickson's Twitter
Ron Shandler: Facebook Post
Steve Gardner: Remembering Lawr Michaels
Justin Mason: Unabashedly Lawr
You're not too old to rock but you're too young to roll.
Way, way, too young.
RIP mate.
Ladies and gentlemen, please meet Ziddy. Who's Ziddy? Other than my dormant, edgy alter-ego that used to frequent the Boston bar and club scene in the 80's and 90's, Ziddy is an Excel spreadsheet designed to facilitate managing your fantasy baseball teams as well as serving as a research tool in the off-season.
Ziddy will be updated daily for 2019 Platinum subscribers. However, to wet your your whistle, the 2018 version is available for free download (see below).
In short, you enter the player and the date range you want to look at and Ziddy will provide an array of stats for that period. You can enter as many players as you want. Here's an example of the whole season data for the recently named MVP awardees:
And one for the 2018 Cy Young award winners:
Now let's change the dates to an arbitrary slice of the season:
The player pool and dates are easily entered via a pull down menu.
This is a beta-version. I already have a couple of tweaks planned for the upcoming season. For example, HR/FB will be added for both hitters and pitchers. The wOBA for hitters isn't accurate as it doesn't include intentional walks. I'll clean that up for the daily-updated 2019 version.
In addition, there will be three different formats. The first will be exactly as displayed here where you can customize the dates. The second will limit the number of players to five, but you'll be able to customize several sets of dates. The idea here is to help evaluating free agents or for roster moves. Below is a screenshot of the hitting version. The pitching one is similar.
l don't have a sample of the third version yet (primarily because I just thought of it). The last one will be dedicated to points leagues. I'll have preset options for the house settings on the major sites along with some DFS options. You'll also be able to input the scoring system for your league, so long as I'm tracking the scoring category.
Being a beta-version, I'm happy to take suggestions to incorporate into the 2019 version. Please post these on the site forum. In addition, if you need help manipulating the data in Excel, or any other questions about Ziddy, I'll offer assistance when able, also on the forum. Platinum subscribers will get priority.
For those considering a Platinum subscription, Ziddy is only a small part of the content. You get:
Six of the last seven NFBC Main Event Champions are Platinum subscribers. Three of 2018's NFBC Overall champions subscribed (Main Event, Rotowire Online Championship, Draft Championship).
Click HERE for a free download of the final version of Ziddy for the 2018 season.