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DownloadAssorted Rants, Rumblings and Ruminations from the Mind of a “So-Called” Expert
A couple weeks ago, the Tout Wars board (Ron Shandler, Peter Kreutzer, Brian Walton, Jeff Erickson and yours truly) decided to shift Tout Wars weekend in Manhattan to an online affair. The four auctions scheduled for the weekend of March 14 and 15 were conducted in the Fantrax auction rooms, at the times originally scheduled.
To be honest, the determination to cancel the live festivities was easy. It became apparent asking the Touts to travel, perhaps at conflict with their loved ones was unfair. Less than 24 hours later, the decision proved prescient as it was obvious the well-being of everyone would be at risk.
The decision to hold the auctions as scheduled or postpone was more difficult. Admittedly, part of opting for “The show must go on.” was SiriusXM’s commitment to broadcast the drafts remotely. That said, the larger reason was when plans for the (hopeful) commencement of the 2020 campaign are announced, everyone will be scrambling in both their personal and professional lives. A major objective of Tout Wars is getting out if front of most drafts and auctions, showcasing possible strategies and helping to establish the market. With this off the table if we postponed, the board concluded it’s best to hold the auctions as scheduled, perhaps even offering an escape for what will no doubt be a long ordeal.
With that as a backdrop, I participated in the National League only auction. I’ll be honest, since winning the league in 2016, I’ve been embarrassed with my poor showings. Humbly, I’m adept at patience and money management. Recently, I’ve taken this too far, eschewing the top tiers, both hitting and pitching. I’d make some purchases in the mid to high twenties, but most were in the teens where in my mind, I was cleaning up. It wasn’t working.
The odd thing is it hasn’t always been this way. I’ve been aggressive at the top, though not with the elite. For years, my plan began with three players for $100, usually manifesting with three players costing around $35.
Before delving into specifics, here is my general approach. I sit down at the table with a roadmap, allotting a target price for each of the 23 roster spots (14 hitters, nine pitchers). As the roster is built, budget is moved from or added to the spots, as dictated via the buys. I use a tiered method of bookkeeping, constantly making sure there are ample players left to occupy the highest priced open slots. If it’s clear there isn’t anyone worthy of the top spot, budget is redistributed, lowering the top target while increasing some lower ones. For those interested, this procedure is detailed in the Platinum Download as part of the Z Files.
The initial plan was for the first three spots to be $35, $35, $30 with the mindset to spend up to $39 if warranted. However, after looking at the inventory, identifying ample players most likely to populate those spots was tough. Ergo, I swerved to four players for $110. In addition, since I knew I wouldn’t be paying for an ace starter, a bit more budget was dedicated to pitching than what was expected for the league in aggregate. Traditionally, NL Tout Wars spends around 69% of the budget on bats. My roadmap was $175 hitting, $85 for arms, a 67/33 split.
Here is what I took into the auction and how I ended up filling each line.
Target | Player (Price paid) |
35 | Starling Marte (30) |
30 | Charlie Blackmon (28) |
25 | J.T. Realmuto (24) |
20 | Marcell Ozuna (24) |
20 | Kole Calhoun (14) |
15 | Starlin Castro (13) |
12 | Jon Berti (12) |
5 | Asdrubal Cabrera (7) |
5 | Corey Dickerson (7) |
3 | Colin Moran (3) |
2 | Jake Lamb (2) |
1 | Tim Locostro (1) |
1 | Dom Nunez (1) |
1 | Jason Kipnis (1) |
20 | Brandon Woodruff (21) |
15 | Sonny Gray (19) |
15 | Kirby Yates (18) |
15 | Carlos Martinez (13) |
8 | Adrian Houser (8) |
5 | Anthony DeSclafani (7) |
5 | Brandon Kintzler (5) |
1 | Merrill Kelly (1) |
1 | Kevin Ginkel (1) |
Cal Quantrill (res) | |
Ryon Healy (res) | |
Brock Holt (res) | |
Daniel Ponce de leon (res) |
Link to all the Tout Wars Auctions and Drafts
The prices for starting pitching remained elevated and since I was devoid of an ace, hitting the middle hard was necessary. In addition, Yates was a few bucks over the target price for a closer but was too good a deal to ignore. The result was $167 to hitting and $93 to pitching, a 64/36 split.
Even with the game plan to be more aggressive than the past few seasons, a $30 Marte was the top buy. Even so, $106 was spent on four batters, just $4 below the target.
The budget required to supplement pitching emanated in part from the $4 saved above along with funneling some from the $20 and $15 hitting lines. This is exactly the area I usually thrive, but the redistribution was needed. As it turned out, it was fortuitous as there weren’t a lot of perceived good buys in that range. The auction had a strange feel, which was shared by those in the NL LABR auction earlier in the month. The spending of both NL auctions didn’t level off until very late, reducing the earlier “bargains”, confining them to the end game. On my end, this enabled the purchasing of Cabrera and Dickerson, a couple of guys I had priced into the mid-teens.
Despite spending less than intended on hitting, including an expensive catcher, I’m pleased with the offense. It needs Berti to come through along with Locostro chipping in some bags, but I like the balance and flexibility with several multi-eligibility players. This will facilitate upgrading Lamb, Kipnis, Locostro and possibly Moran.
Pitching may not appear to be strong, but I’m high on Woodruff, Gray, DeSclafani and Houser, though I wish they weren’t centralized in two of the best hitting venues in the Senior Circuit. Martinez continues to get a discount, one which I’m happy to accept.
With respect to saves, Josh Hader sold for $23 so the expectation was Yates would cost at least $20. I had no issue taking him to $18, but that was likely my max. When he sold for that number, I was giddy, knowing lesser closers would fall in the $14-$16 range and I’d much rather spend the extra on Yates. As it turned out, Kenley Jansen and Edwin Diaz sold for $16 with Hector Neris and Craig Kimbrel drawing $14 bids. Yates and Kintzler cost $23. It’ll be interesting to see how that compares to Archie Bradley ($12) and Giovanny Gallegos ($11), selling for the same $23.
Before I go, Tout Wars weekend included one of the proudest moments of my professional career as I was the recipient of the first Lawr Michaels Zen and Now award. This was via peer nomination by my Tout Wars colleagues, making it extra special. Giving a peek behind the fourth wall, I was informed of the honor a little before the official announcement on SiriusXM, availing just enough time to compose myself and try to come up with something to say. As I said on the air, especially in the current trying time, it’s heartening knowing while I may be the first, there’s a litany of other worthwhile Zen and Now recipients, carrying on Lawr’s memory and spirit for decades to come.
Tuesday night I participated in Tout Wars Mixed Draft League. This is a 15-team 5X5 league with OBP instead of BAvg where you draft your 23 starters and then get six reserve picks. I drew the ninth pick so let’s see how I fared and what happened at this draft table of fantasy industry veterans that might help you in upcoming drafts.
The draft started normally with the usual suspects – Mike Trout, Christian Yelich, Ronald Acuna, Juan Soto, Cody Bellinger, and Mookie Betts taken off the board. One of the first-round questions in a fifteen team is when would the top pitchers get drafted? In this draft it was 1.07 when Gerrit Cole was taken. Then we had the middle infield run as Trea Turner was taken at 1.08, I selected Fransisco Lindor, and Trevor Story followed. Back to the elite starting pitchers, Jacob deGrom went at 1.11, hardly a surprise. But after Noland Arenado was drafted the end of the first round was Walker Buehler (surprisingly ahead of), Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer.
At my second pick I had to choose whether to take the best pitcher available (Jack Flaherty) or add another big bat and hope I would see either Stephen Strasburg or Clayton Kershaw (yes, I think he is back this year and 200 innings from him would be huge) would make it back to me in the third round. So, I took Mets first baseman Pete Alonso hoping for 40 home runs in his second season (I doubt he hits another fifty in his sophomore season). No such luck as the Cole owner doubled up with Shane Bieber and the Betts owner took Flaherty at 2.10. Strasburg went with the last pick in the second round and teams two, three, and four took Mike Clevinger, Patrick Corbin, and Kershaw in the order. I chose Charlie Morton at 3.09 over Zach Greinke.
Blake Snell was the only other pitcher taken in the third round but the fourth round saw Yu Darvish, Chris Paddack, Luis Castillo, Chris Sale, and Aaron Nola get selected. So through four rounds every team had drafted one starting pitcher and three teams had taken two. This is definitely an increase or this group and more closely resembles and NFBC draft. The two surprises for me were the injured Clevinger being drafted in the third round and Sale being drafted in the fourth. Sale was taken with a significant discount, but with him seeking a third opinion on his left elbow is too much of a risk a team’s “ace”.
Here are a few other draft picks that you may be interested in:
Here is a recap of my draft
1.09 Francisco Lindor
2.07 Pete Alonso
3.09 Charlie Morton
4.07 Cavan Biggio
5.09 Ramon Laureano
6.07 Mike Soroka
7.09 Gary Sanchez
8.07 Liam Hendriks
9.09 Justin Turner
10.07 Mike Minor
11.09 Adam Eaton
12.07 Jorge Polanco
13.09 Masahiro Tanaka
14.08 Justin Upton
15.09 Eric Thames
16.07 Kole Calhoun
17.09 Ryan Yarbrough
18.07 Alex Verdugo
19.09 Kurt Suzuki
20.07 Dakota Hudson
21.09 Dallas Keuchel
22.07 Anibal Sanchez
23,09 Jesus Aguilar
24.07 James Karinchak
25.09 Jose Martinez
26.07 Jordan Hicks (IL)
27.09 Carl Edwards Jr.
28.07 Jose Peraza
29.09 Domingo German (S)
The Hicks and German picks were made because this league will have its first FAAB run right before the season starts when I can “DL” them and add two more reserves.
An interesting draft to be sure. As with most teams, the fate of this squad will be dependent on how the pitching ends up and in vigorous pursuit of free agent players to help either specific category shortages or replace players who might be injured or not performing. I certainly have enough power and a strong OBP. Steals may need Peraza running for the Red Sox. Saves will need either Edwards to break out of the committee in Seattle; Karinchak succeeding Brad Hand if he is traded; or finding some on the free agent list – one reason I created two slots to be replaced.
Always glad to answer questions about my picks or this draft in the Subscriber Forum.
The defense of my 2019 The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational overall title has begun, and according to some, I’m already mathematically eliminated. From the Lucky-13 hole, I went off-book, at least according to ADP and chose Starling Marte. Here’s why.
Most importantly, I care far more about my rankings than ADP (average draft position). If there was a chance Marte would have made it to me in Round 3, I may have played ADP chicken. However, he’s in my Top-10 and was my highest rated player still on the board.
It’s fair to ask why not wait until Round 2? Good question. The next player on my list was J.D. Martinez, another guy with a later ADP, but not late enough to be around in Round 3. However, I have Martinez and Freddie Freeman essentially ranked the same, so I preferred to lock in Marte and take whichever was left for me in the second, expecting Freeman to be gone. As it turned out, Freeman was available, so I opted for the Braves first baseman, feeling he was a tad safer than Martinez.
Back to Marte and why he’s ranked so high for me. With my first-round pick, I’m not looking for upside; I want to build a foundation of stats I can write in. Marte has a solid track record with a power-speed base. Plugging it into my formula, he lands Top-10. That said, rankings aren’t just an ordering of “value”. I consider the reliability and team construction element and Marte fit what I want to do.
Some point to Marte’s durability as a first rounder. Yes, he’s missed time the last two seasons, but my formulaic rank assumes just 600 plate appearances, the average of the previous two campaigns. Remember he was suspended for 80 games in 2017, so the 77 games total is misleading. Last year, Marte missed time early after colliding with teammate Erik Gonzalez. In September, he hurt his wrist bracing a fall. While not flukes, neither are chronic nor involved his legs, relevant for someone reliant on speed. If Marte always missed time with a groin or hamstring issue, that would be different.
The other aspect of only expecting 600 PA is someone can backfill the roster spot with free loot. When you draft or purchase a player, you’re paying for the roster spot, not the player. If Marte misses time, especially with TGFBI/NFBC rules, hitters can be moved in and out of the lineup twice a week so I’m paying for Marte’s stats and perhaps getting a few transaction periods of someone else. If Marte doesn’t get hurt, the free loot is from him, so there’s some organic upside from playing time.
Marte is on the other side of 30 years old when speed sometimes wanes, but he’s still running with 92nd percentile sprint speed, so even if he loses a little this season, there’s plenty left to pilfer some bags. I’m not concerned about going to a new team. You don’t trade for Marte and tell him not to run. The best skippers manage to their player’s strength.
One of the biggest knocks on Marte is the ability to maintain 20-something homers, citing a big ground ball tilt and a low average exit velocity. Obviously, I have no counter for the high ground ball number, except it helps him in the batting average department. However, I have a unique perspective on the average exit velocity argument. Marte’s overall average exit velocity is just 23rd percentile but his mark on fly balls is above average. There’s something about Marte’s swing mechanics where he hits fly balls with more authority and grounders with less, likely due to an uppercut pathway at contact. The plethora of grounders could be he doesn’t center the ball often, instead topping it. But, when he does center it, the resultant fly balls are hit with more authority, thus Marte can maintain an elevated HR/FB mark.
From a venue point of view, Marte’s power should improve. The humidor has calmed Chase Field down, but it’s still 10% more favorable for righty power than PNC Park, plus Marte will visit Coors Field for three series. Maybe this is reaching too far to justify the pick, but Phoenix is at one of the higher elevations so pitched balls don’t move as much. Maybe this helps Marte center more contact, lofting it instead of banging it into the turf.
That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.