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DownloadAssorted Rants, Rumblings and Ruminations from the Mind of a “So-Called” Expert
It’s that time again as the fine folks at DraftStreet.com are sponsoring another $350 Freeroll for Mastersball readers. And I am here again to talk about the team I am entering. After cashing in the first two Freeroll contests, I had a rough week last time and I am anxious to get back to my old winning ways.
A mistake often made, be it in standard fantasy baseball or daily formats is to have a knee-jerk reaction when things are not going your way. As such, I am going to hold firm to the stratagem I have used to this point:
1. Ignore streaks |
2. Ignore historical hitters versus pitcher matchups |
3. Focus on using players at home |
4. Focus on off-handed hitting matchups in good hitting parks |
5. Focus on hitters facing below average pitchers and pitchers facing below average hitters |
The key is not to get so wrapped up in these “rules” to overlook other areas to gain an edge. The first thing that struck me when I took a look at the pitchers was for the first time, there were fewer aces than normal. My first thought was “cool, this will be a real test of the home-field theory” since I would be counting on the above to get an advantage and not just rely on talent.
Then something else caught my eye. There are a couple of what I consider to be lesser hurlers working on the road, against better teams in good hitter’s parks. This goes against the spread the wealth mentality, but I opted to load up on hitters that follow the above and are facing these lesser starters. My two victims are Cleveland’s Jeanmar Gomez, facing the White Sox in the friendly Cell, rookie Christian Friedrich on the road versus the Reds in the Great American Ballpark.
Real quick, by means of review, my means of assembling the squad is as follows:
1. Start with pitching |
2. Go bottom-up through the positions, looking for the bargains |
3. Go top down, looking for the outstanding stud matchups |
4. Fili-in the blanks with what is left in terms of salary |
Here we go….
SP: Jason Hammel ($10,594) – Hammel’s peripherals suggest his success is real and I am hoping it continues, though the Royals are surprisingly strong against RHP, sporting a .738 OBP.
SP: Tim Hudson ($11,728) – Hudson does not fan as many as I would like in this format and I suspect that is going to be another rule as I continue to learn the nuances, but I’ll take the chance against a middle of the pack Nationals’ attack when facing righties.
SP: A.J. Burnett ($12,125) – Perhaps an over-compensation for wanting K’s, but Burnett is squaring off against the Cubs, who struggle against right-handers.
RP: Jim Johnson ($2891) – I like to match up my closer with one of my starters. I cannot fit Craig Kimbel under the cap and I am more confident in Hammel than Burnett, so Joel Hanrahan loses out.
C: A.J. Pierzynski ($7,513) – Let the piling on begin with this L-R match-up. I feel safe Pierzynski will play but with catcher, it is always best to keep your eye on lineups and have a Plan B in mind, just in case. Matt Wieters will be the backup if needed.
1B: Adrian Gonzalez ($6,452) – Impressive rookie Alex Cobb will be on the bump, but the veteran Gonzalez should pose a threat in this L-R confrontation.
2B: Dan Uggla ($5,694) – The primary reason for Uggla is none of the piling on matchups were attractive so I’ll take a power-hitting righty against the southpaw Ross Detwiler.
3B: Todd Frazier ($4,640) – Cheap, right-handed and a Red – three for three. Let’s see if Frazier can handle Friedrich. There is some concern as if he can’t, the Rox rook is a strikeout guy which would be negative points.
SS: Zack Cozart ($,4041) – Cozart has the same three traits as Frazier and he hits at the top of the order so he is a threat to score runs, which is important in this scoring system (and may soon become a rule; only draft players in the top-half of the batting order).
OF: Kirk Nieuwenhuis ($4,604) – Nieuwenhuis is seeing regular at-bats versus righties. Anthony Bass, the opposition, has looked very good, but let’s see how he does outside of PETCO.
OF: Alejandro De Aza ($6,823) – Pale Hose number two, De Aza is another top of the order lefty facing the RH Gomez.
OF: Drew Stubbs ($5,187) – Our third Red, if he doesn’t fan, Stubbs is almost assured of scoring some points since he can do everything. I am sure Friedrich is a great guy, but let’s just say I am not going to be his biggest fan tonight.
UT: Adam Dunn ($7882) – And now our third South Sider, Dunn is another strikeout threat but a homer threat as well. I’ll take the chance he can make contact against Gomez.
UT: David Ortiz ($9,784) – Maybe a mini-piling on, Big Papi is the second BoSox and our final hitter. Cobb has looked good, but the patient approach of the suddenly effective Red Sox attack could cause issues.
Well, here is it. I actually like the way this came together. If you’re not playing, wish me luck. If you are, let the best team win.{jcomments on}
OK, so this is rather embarrassing. I set up this whole “homework assignment” and it turns out I messed up the data a little. If you have not seen it, I posted a series of five pitcher rankings based on last season’s final stats and asked for opinions as to which list was favored with respect to how pitchers should be ranked for fantasy purposes. I have fixed the list, so if you took the time to go through them, I apologize. Everyone, please take a moment to look at the corrected lists, with the second series of names being the one that is changed. Of note is where relievers now fall, please click HERE.
For those that picked the second, do you still feel that way?
Here’s the deal. We all know how wacky this season has been with respect to closers. Even before this season. many leagues have addressed the issue by incorporating holds in different machinations. Three of these are included on the list, and for the record, I play in a league that uses each one.
But I have an issue with that. I think holds are every bit as suspect as a stat as saves, perhaps even more so. It is still up to a manager’s whim and is just an artificial means of attempting to reduce the randomness relievers are awarded the closer role. Now, that same randomness extends to the set up guys.
Perhaps the main reason I don’t like using both saves and holds is they violate what I feel is a basic tenet of the way fantasy baseball should be played. It is my opinion that the game should consist of the following:
1. Project a reasonable level of performance for each player |
2. Convert this performance to a relative fantasy value |
3. Assemble a roster with the potential to score as many points as possible |
4. Manage the roster in-season to maximize the number of points scored |
The use of saves and holds violates the top line. Projecting saves and holds is a complete crapshoot. I hate to sound cliché, but there is no skill to assigning saves and holds. Granted, one can argue there is some degree of logic, but even that is more common sense and not based on anything analytical, derived from projection theory.
And to anticipate those that (correctly) point out that there is a degree of this logic and common sense outside of projection theory when it comes to projecting wins, RBI and runs, you are right. That said, to me anyway, saves and holds are at another level of being whimsical. Better pitchers with better offenses and good bullpens should get more wins. Players hitting first and second should score more runs while those hitting after should get more RBI. Yes, these are all team-dependent, but they are less subject to the manager’s mood than setup men and closers. Lineups are designed based on the skills of the hitters. Rotations are constructed based on skills of the pitchers. Bullpens, however, are not always organized based on skills.
You know the expression “don’t come to me with a problem unless you have a solution?” Well, here’s the solution.
What skill is the most important for a pitcher? Shouldn’t this be what we use as a fantasy category? In my not so humble opinion, this skill is K/9. I know that no single skill is the be all end all, but if you had to use one skill as an initial filter and you were not allowed to use multiple, my choice would be K/9. Therefore, my ideal scoring system uses K/9.
I realize an argument can be made that K/BB is arguably better and maybe it is. But from a fantasy baseball perspective, walks are already accounted for in WHIP, so having K/9 replace saves is my first suggestion.
Uh oh, now we have K/9 and K’s as categories, we can’t have that. So here is what we do. Replace strikeouts with innings pitched. Think about it, this is representative of a pitcher’s skill, or at minimum, reflective of the pitcher’s contribution to his MLB team. Pitchers should be rewarded for the simple fact they threw an inning. Yeah, I know, batters don’t get credit for every at-bat, but in general, they don’t get pulled from the game if they are struggling either.
This makes my ideal 5x5 scoring system W, IP, ERA, WHIP, K/9. OK, maybe this is not ideal as there are still some issues with W and even ERA, but we are having a hard enough of a time getting leagues to recognize on-base percentage is superior than batting average, how the heck can we get them to use QS and xFIP in roto-scoring? Let’s crawl before we walk.
For those that doubt I can get the fantasy community to listen, guess who used what is now called the KDS draft spot designation process five years before the National Fantasy Baseball Championships revolutionized draft slot assignment? I’ll give you a hint; he’s the same guy that pestered the Tout Wars LLC for five years before they finally agreed to convert an outfielder spot to a swing position, capable of being filled by a pitcher or hitter – that’s right, THIS GUY.
Let’s reveal the scoring systems used for the five sets of rankings and I again apologize for botching them.
COLUMN 1: Saves + Holds/2 |
COLUMN 2: K/9+IP |
COLUMN 3: Saves + Holds – Blown saves |
COLUMN 4: Saves + Holds |
COLUMN 5: standard 5x5 |
As alluded to in the beginning, the telltale aspect of the K/9+IP list is the absence of a reliever until Craig Kimbrel at #36. Even more relevant is the subsequent order of relievers, which is a far better measure of the player’s skills and contributions. Here is just the reliever ranking within each list. Do you feel the relative rank is more representative than in standard scoring?
SV + H/2 | K/9+IP | SV+H-BS | SV+H | STD 5x5 |
Craig Kimbrel | Craig Kimbrel | Tyler Clippard | Tyler Clippard | Craig Kimbrel |
Tyler Clippard | Tyler Clippard | Jonny Venters | Craig Kimbrel | Drew Storen |
Drew Storen | David Robertson | Mike Adams | Jonny Venters | John Axford |
Mike Adams | Jonny Venters | Craig Kimbrel | Mike Adams | Mariano Rivera |
Jonny Venters | Mike Adams | David Robertson | David Robertson | Jose Valverde |
John Axford | Koji Uehara | Drew Storen | Drew Storen | J.J. Putz |
Mariano Rivera | Alfredo Aceves | John Axford | Sean Marshall | Joel Hanrahan |
Fernando Salas | Greg Holland | Sean Marshall | Alfredo Aceves | Fernando Salas |
J.J. Putz | Sergio Romo | Jose Valverde | John Axford | Francisco Cordero |
Jose Valverde | Fernando Salas | Eric O'Flaherty | Eric O'Flaherty | Jonathan Papelbon |
Alfredo Aceves | Jonathan Papelbon | Alfredo Aceves | Fernando Salas | Tyler Clippard |
Joel Hanrahan | Sean Marshall | Mariano Rivera | Mariano Rivera | Alfredo Aceves |
David Robertson | Kenley Jansen | J.J. Putz | J.J. Putz | Mike Adams |
Francisco Cordero | John Axford | Fernando Salas | Jose Valverde | Jonny Venters |
Jonathan Papelbon | Eric O'Flaherty | Joel Hanrahan | Joel Hanrahan | Ryan Madson |
Sean Marshall | Antonio Bastardo | Koji Uehara | Jason Motte | Kyle Farnsworth |
Eric O'Flaherty | Drew Storen | Greg Holland | Francisco Cordero | Sergio Santos |
Francisco Rodriguez | Vinnie Pestano | Jason Motte | Koji Uehara | Mark Melancon |
Jason Motte | Jeff Samardzija | Jonathan Papelbon | Greg Holland | Jordan Walden |
Ryan Madson | Jason Motte | Francisco Cordero | Francisco Rodriguez | Francisco Rodriguez |
Greg Holland | Sergio Santos | Francisco Rodriguez | Jonathan Papelbon | David Robertson |
Kyle Farnsworth | Edward Mujica | Sergio Romo | Sergio Romo | Jason Motte |
Koji Uehara | Al Alburquerque | Antonio Bastardo | Scott Downs | Sean Marshall |
Mark Melancon | Jesse Crain | Scott Downs | Antonio Bastardo | Greg Holland |
Antonio Bastardo | Rafael Betancourt | Ryan Madson | Edward Mujica | Antonio Bastardo |
Sergio Santos | Francisco Rodriguez | Edward Mujica | Grant Balfour | Eric O'Flaherty |
Sergio Romo | Mark Melancon | Daniel Bard | Ryan Madson | Koji Uehara |
Edward Mujica | Mariano Rivera | Rafael Betancourt | Rafael Betancourt | Edward Mujica |
Jordan Walden | J.J. Putz | David Hernandez | Daniel Bard | Sergio Romo |
Scott Downs | Grant Balfour | Grant Balfour | Jesse Crain | Carlos Marmol |
Rafael Betancourt | David Hernandez | Joel Peralta | Kyle Farnsworth | Rafael Betancourt |
Grant Balfour | Daniel Bard | Jesse Crain | Mark Melancon | Scott Downs |
David Hernandez | Kyle Farnsworth | Mark Melancon | David Hernandez | Joel Peralta |
Jesse Crain | Joel Hanrahan | Kyle Farnsworth | Joel Peralta | David Hernandez |
Joel Peralta | Casey Janssen | Joaquin Benoit | Joaquin Benoit | Jeff Samardzija |
Daniel Bard | Joel Peralta | Sergio Santos | Sergio Santos | Jesse Crain |
Jeff Samardzija | Jose Valverde | Tony Sipp | Vinnie Pestano | Grant Balfour |
Vinnie Pestano | Ryan Madson | Vinnie Pestano | Jordan Walden | Casey Janssen |
Joaquin Benoit | Joaquin Benoit | Jeff Samardzija | Jeff Samardzija | Kenley Jansen |
Tony Sipp | Octavio Dotel | Jordan Walden | Tony Sipp | Vinnie Pestano |
Carlos Marmol | Scott Downs | Joe Smith | Joe Smith | Matt Belisle |
Matt Belisle | Glen Perkins | Glen Perkins | Matt Belisle | Al Alburquerque |
Joe Smith | Matt Belisle | Kenley Jansen | Glen Perkins | Joe Smith |
Casey Janssen | Ramon Ramirez | Ramon Ramirez | Casey Janssen | Ramon Ramirez |
Kenley Jansen | Jordan Walden | Casey Janssen | Darren Oliver | Joaquin Benoit |
Ramon Ramirez | Tony Sipp | Darren Oliver | Kenley Jansen | Daniel Bard |
Glen Perkins | Carlos Marmol | Matt Belisle | Ramon Ramirez | Tony Sipp |
Al Alburquerque | Francisco Cordero | Al Alburquerque | Al Alburquerque | Octavio Dotel |
Darren Oliver | Aroldis Chapman | Octavio Dotel | Carlos Marmol | Glen Perkins |
Octavio Dotel | Ernesto Frieri | Carlos Marmol | Octavio Dotel | Darren Oliver |
Aroldis Chapman | Joe Smith | Aroldis Chapman | Aroldis Chapman | Aroldis Chapman |
Ernesto Frieri | Mike Dunn | Ernesto Frieri | Ernesto Frieri | Ernesto Frieri |
Mike Dunn | Darren Oliver | Mike Dunn | Mike Dunn | Mike Dunn |
Aaron Crow | Aaron Crow | Aaron Crow | Aaron Crow | Aaron Crow |
Tom Gorzelanny | Tom Gorzelanny | Tom Gorzelanny | Tom Gorzelanny | Tom Gorzelanny |
The 400-pound gorilla of this idea is Mariano Rivera. He checks in at #28 among relievers. Is Al Alburquerque really a better pitcher than Mo? But you can’t have it both ways. Either saves are meaningful or they are not. Well, that’s not exactly true. Maybe this is just a jumping off point and the wins category is altered to include saves.
After all, there is a reason they call this fantasy baseball.{jcomments on}
It’s that time again, Draft Street is sponsoring another $350 Free Roll available to Mastersball readers. By means reminder, this will be a one day contest featuring the games played on Friday, May 11. It costs nothing to enter and seven spots will cash, totaling $350. All you have to do is choose 14 players that fit under the salary cap and watch your points add up. I’ve cashed in each of the first two promotions, though admittedly last time my alter ego, Lord Z took the honors in the Baseball HQ promotion. But the point is, if I can do it how hard can it be?
As usual, my focus is going to be on LHB-RHP and RHB-LHP hitting matchups, favoring players at home in good hitting parks. For pitching, I want a guy at home, facing a lesser team and lower quality opponent on the mound, in an effort to increase win potential. I’ll choose three starters and pair up the cheapest closer corresponding to one of the starters.
Like always, I refuse to be suckered into the hitter versus pitcher data that everyone seems to think is so vital to success. Google it if you don’t believe me, but the sample size is simply too small for past performance to be significant, regardless of how enticing it may seem.
This week, I am going to introduce another factor into my selections, one which may seem counter-intuitive, but as it turns out, could end up playing to my advantage twice. You see, my own unpublished research as well as everything I have seen on the Internet all conclude the same thing, and that is deploying perceived hot players while avoiding what appear to be cold players is not a viable strategy, as recent performances is not an indicator of expected performance. That is, it is much better to rely on a player’s history than make a judgment on a couple of weeks, no matter how well the player has performed. I see this as an advantage since I sense others will shun these players, and their salaries are lower. The Draft Street salaries are at least in part based on recent and/or performance to date, so there are several notable star players with depressed salaries.
To briefly review how I put the pieces into the puzzle, I start with the pitching, not necessarily looking for the bargain basement prices, but focusing more on juicy matchups. I’ll make up salary with hitters. To that end, I go through all the positions and try to find a viable player for under $5000. Then I raise the limit to $6000. At this point, I assess where I stand in terms of available salary and go through the higher players until I have one spot left, then it is a matter of finding the best player under that number, keeping in mind the goal is not to get as close to the cap as possible, but rather to find the best player as possible. That said, if I feel I am leaving too much cap space unspent, I will look to see if I can upgrade a spot.
That’s the process, here’s the squad:
C: Carlos Santana ($6717) – Santana is on the road, but he is facing Clay Buchholz, who is off to a very slow start. The Tribe has a bunch of lefties in their lineup which should lead to a few run producing and scoring chances.
1B: Albert Pujols ($5636) – YIKES!! I know he is off to a slow start, but Pujols is priced like a platoon player. Adding to the intrigue is the opposing mounds man is Yu Darvish. The matchup defies two of my rules of thumb as Albert is facing a righty on the road, but at least the park is favorable. Plus, it’s Albert freaking Pujols, priced below such luminaries as Matt Downs, David Cooper, Brett Pill and Matt LaPorta. Come on.
2B: Danny Espinosa ($4055) – Here’s putting the slump theory to the test, I am pretty sure Espinosa will not be played a whole lot, even though his salary is quite low. He’s on the road, facing James McDonald who is on a roll, but like hitters, recent streaks are not a harbinger. Espinosa is a switch-hitter and can score points with his power or speed; I just have to hope he is able to make contact as strikeouts are counted against the total.
3B: Chase Headley ($5900) – Headley is on the road, but at least it is in Philly, facing Vance Worley, not an overwhelming matchup. I like Headley because he’s a switch-hitter and I think he is underrated, leading to a reasonable salary. He’s a better base runner than many realize which can lead to runs and steals.
SS: Jimmy Rollins ($5249) – While Rollins is no longer a roto-stud, he still profiles very well in this format since the only negatives are strikeouts and grounding into double plays, a couple of results Rollins is usually able to avoid. He’s a switcher, facing Richard at friendly Citizen's Bank Park. I know he’s in a “slump” which renders the veteran shortstop my third scuffler with a depressed salary.
OF: Denard Span ($5115) – This is my least confident pick as Span turned out to be the “fit him in” guy. That said, the matchup against Kyle Drabek is in his favor and since Span’s game is running, the big park is not an issue. I’ll take a walk, steal and a run any day.
OF: Hunter Pence: ($9145) – In a vacuum, Pence is a perfect selection since he fits the vitals: RHB vs. LHP at home in a great park. But there’s another reason I chose him.
OF: John Mayberry ($3659) - Sensing a pattern? Hang in, there’s more to come. Along with fitting the criteria, Mayberry is dirt cheap, and that’s not all.
UT: Ty Wigginton ($5291) – If you have not figured it out by now, I am going to have a Philly cheese steak for dinner then blast the theme from Rocky through my speakers as I get ready to cheer on my favorite team (for one night only), Philadelphia. It came about by accident, but as I was constructing the team, I decided to overload on Phillies, hoping to cash in on a slugfest. I’m not sure if this is a viable strategy, seems to me it may be a win or go home sort of play, but maybe that’s what it takes to win this thing. One note on Wigginton, he is a risk since he’s hurt, but I am covered by using him at utility and not third without another third baseman at utility. This way, if I am worried that he won’t play. I can look for a hitter at any position, not just the hot corner. My best backup option is Alfonso Soriano at Milwaukee against Randy Wolf, but I am eager to deploy the overload method so I hope to find a positive report on Wiggy early enough to lock in the best lineup.
UT: David Ortiz ($9364) – Big Papi is at home, facing Ubaldo Jimenez. This is a lot of salary to spend, but I like the matchup. Something to note is especially when it comes to East Coast and Midwestern games, pay attention to the forecast, it would he harsh to lose a player due to a rainout. Friday night is supposed to be perfect in both Boston and Philadelphia.
GENERAL WORD OF CAUTION: DO NOT TRUST THE PITCHERS TO BE ACCURATE! Last time C.C. Sabathia was listed as a probable for the Friday games and he did not pitch. It is well worth the effort to confirm that the listed starter is indeed scheduled, not to mention you could be basing hitting selections on hurlers not actually active that evening. Keep in mind that since Draft Street needs to set and lock the prices well in advance of the games, often something slips through the cracks.
SP: Chris Capuano ($14,531): Capuano is one of the more under-appreciated fantasy performers. His peripherals have been solid for over a year. Dodger Stadium is a nice place to pitch and Jamie Moyer and the Rockies make for a nice matchup. Capuano should be able to neutralize the lefties in the Colorado lineup, which is their strength.
SP: Jaime Garcia ($9747): Garcia at home is always a good thing. Mike Minor and the Atlanta Braves are not easy opponents, but to be completely upfront, the main reason this was chosen was to pair up Jason Motte with Garcia as Motte’s salary is surprisingly low.
RP: Jason Motte ($1879): Unless I am missing something, there is no reason for Motte’s price to be this dirt cheap, figure I may as well take advantage.
P: Gavin Floyd ($13,680): Pitcher strikeouts along with wins are what pump up the points and I like Floyd’s chanced for both as he faces off against the Kansas City Royals.
Good luck to to your squad!
{jcomments on}