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DownloadBy means of a quick review, here are the top shortstops in 2011
Who are my top shortstop candidates for 2012? Well Tulo is still at the top of the list but the old and the new in Miami may have to switch places.
While I still think Hanley Ramirez is more likely to put up better fantasy stats than Jose Reyes, I am listing a mental reservation here…..my reservation about Hanley’s mental outlook that is – IF he is still in Miami to start the season will his move to third base hinder his approach and cost you stats if you draft him?
Okay, here are my Top 12 shortstops for 2012 as of December 26
<Note that all of them have some question marks on playing time, injury reliability, or just matching last year’s numbers (which Cabrera won’t likely do, but I don’t see as much of a drop in home runs as many do). Because of that by my standards it is weaker than second base heading into 2012.
Now we want to pick out the next twelve from either second base or shortstop to populate our MI list.
Okay let’s look at your choices at second base for 2012 – the good news is that it looks a little better than it did a year ago.
Here were the top second basemen in 2011:
Hopefully that list doesn’t surprise you much – I suggested Espinosa last year as a good shot at second with his blend of power and speed – hopefully the average goes up next year. Ugly was Dan’s start last year but he made up for it later and as long as you didn’t get disillusioned and sell low you were fine.
Okay now let’s look at my rankings for the Top Twelve second sackers as we draft in December
Let’s look back at shortstops to end this column and next week I will give you my choices for 2012 as well as look at the next group of middle infielders.
Top shortstops in 2011
Continuing on with draft prep for 2012, let’s look at how the third basemen fared last year and which I project to be the top twelve for next season.
Here were the Top Ten in 2011
Odd that two teams both had two “third basemen” in the top performers last year. “Tatman” – aka Ryan Roberts came out of nowhere last year – he wasn’t even projected as a starter by the Diamondbacks heading into the 2011 year.
Okay, so what do my 2012 third base rankings look like?
Pedro Alvarez is a possibility but I need to see it (after being burned last year). But I think the talent is there despite Pittsburgh mismanaging him.
Lonnie Chisenhall will continue to develop in 2012 but not sure his stats will be good enough to crash this list.
First basemen and third basemen who didn’t make the top twelve in their respective categories (in no particular order) are Martin Prado, Mark Reynolds (good power, terrible average), Freddie Freeman, Gaby Sanchez, Chipper Jones, Ike Davis, Derrek Lee, Carlos Lee, Scott Rolen, Mark Trumbo, Carlos Pena, and James Loney (assuming that was a blip on his behavior resume).
Next week we will look at middle infielders.{jcomments on}
Those of you who are Platinum Subscribers for 2012 may have already looked at the composite staff rankings posted late last week. Because it is never too early and because my rankings are always visible either here or in industry “expert” drafts or at FantasyBaseballExaminer.com I thought I would start to take a look at the positions for next season as we view them in December. First let’s look back at how the top first basemen fared in 2011 versus pre-season rankings.
2011 First basemen – by mixed league, 5X5 value
While Hosmer was a great prospect, no one thought he would be up early enough in the season to be a Top Ten 1B for 2011 (although I did pay $7 for him in the AL LABR draft). Similarly Kendrys Morales was the LA Angels first baseman that fantasy players wanted to draft. Kevin Youkilis will show up as a third baseman, but where is Adam Dunn? Morales we know about.
So what does my early look at first base look like?
Well I don’t think it is far different than the composite but I did have some players ranked higher and some left on entirely – when we really have a clue about when Ryan Howard will be back I will try and estimate his at bats. Right now the estimates vary between April and May meaning he could easily miss the first third of the season.
My Top 12 First basemen
Remember Kevin Youkilis is only eligible at third base next season, and Billy Butler doesn’t have twenty games as required in the NFBC or many leagues to start 2012. Like Howard I won’t rank Kendrys Morales until we know whether he will be in the Angels opening day lineup.
The “next player up” should you remove Morse or Cuddyer would be Atlanta’s Freddie Freeman, who is certainly a “starter” in fifteen team mixed leagues.
Did I miss anyone?
We’ll look at third base and thus corner infielders next week.{jcomments on}
It seems like the Texas Rangers and I have the same question/problem with Neftali Feliz each spring. Is he a solid closer at a great price or is the arm and stuff so potentially dominant they there would be more value if he started every fifth day?
Well I can adjust a lot easier than the Rangers can, but I would prefer to know their decision if not his success sooner than they will get there. After all a trade is not one of their options but it is for my AL keeper team.
Let’s go back to the 2010 season. Feliz had been promoted from my “Farm Team” to a three dollar salary because he made the Rangers opening day roster. He was the “junior” closer for my team since I had Joakim Soria in the final year of his contract at 15C10. Both had good years and lots of saves and the CAPTAINS won the pennant.
Last winter, I had the following pitchers on my roster
Neftali Feliz 3D10
Tommy Hunter 10F10
Colby Lewis 10F10
Carl Pavano 6D10
Ricky Romero 3D09
Brett Cecil 3D09
I also had three pitchers that were likely to make their teams 2011 Opening Day rosters – Jeremy Hellickson, Michael Pineda, and Jordan Walden. [Our league has a minor league draft every year with each team getting five new minor leaguers after the auction. Rookie status is not a requirement; the players just have to be on American League minor league rosters. With no limit to the number of minor leaguers that can be kept – well other than the $5 for each player kept from the previous year – the Farm rosters can get close to twenty players]
Hunter and Pavano I would certainly waive if they couldn’t be traded. Romero would have to be signed to a contract if I wanted to keep him beyond the 2011 season – Cecil was also promoted as a minor league in 2009 but I wouldn’t be extending him. But the key was Feliz. Would the Mariners keep him closing games or would they stretch him out and move him into the rotation?
If I was losing Feliz as a closer I would not have one on the roster and at that point it wasn’t clear whether Walden was going to make the team much less be closing. So I went looking for a trade and after a few conversations, traded Cecil, Walden and my 3rd round minor league pick for Jose Valverde (17D10), Joaquin Benoit (10F10) and a 2nd round minor league draft pick.
As the freeze deadline neared the Rangers still hadn’t made a decision so I decide to keep Benoit – yes it was Papa Grande insurance but Benoit had terrific numbers in 2010 for Tampa and with my very cheap Feliz, Romero, Hellickson, and Pineda I could afford to spend the extra dollars.
Well hindsight is terrific – as opposed to Benoit. But Feliz remained a closer and Valverde had a career year, so my Saves were in good shape – I didn’t lead the league, in fact my 81 were third, just one save out of second. But my pitching was second or third in all categories but WHIP where I was first. On the other hand Walden closed right away and I no longer had that cheap asset.
Back to this winter and the subject of Feliz in the rotation is back in play. True I can/will keep Valverde for his final year at $17, but if Feliz joins Romero (8C12), Hellickson, Pineda, and Harrison in my rotation, I will have to find a second closer via trade or in the auction. And I still have to decide on whether to retain Lewis or Justin Masterson (10R11) or see if there is a buyer for either.
And I have to decide on what the best contract for Feliz will be – for sure I will extend him for one more year – the question is whether he will be worth an additional five dollars for 2014 – and that would be a lot clearer if I knew if he were starting or closing.
But the Rangers don’t know either.{jcomments on}