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DownloadOkay, back from the All Star break with the weekend series and we want to see what minor league prospects might be up this month that would help fantasy teams.
There have been a lot of questions about Tampa Bay outfielder Desmond Jennings. Lots of analysts want to put him on the top of lists because of his potential and his speed. But the Rays are competing without a huge need in the outfield thanks to contributions from Sam Fuld (at least early in the season) and Matt Joyce who is on pace for 25+ home runs and plays most days (sitting against tough LHP). Jennings will miss at least 2-3 weeks now with a fractured index finger so I doubt we see him until the September call-ups arrive.
I think the Arizona Diamondbacks made a mistake in recalling 1B/OF Brandon Allen when they sent Juan Miranda back to the minors. While Allen has been hitting well (not terrific - .306 with 18 home runs, but striking out more than the last two years) at Triple-A Reno, he still has a hole in his swing which I think major league pitchers will take advantage of in short order. Meanwhile 1B Paul Goldschmidt, the minor league leader in home runs with 26, is still raking at Doulbe-A Mobile (.311 average with 81 RBI and a .656 slugging percentage) and had a two run homer in the Southern League All Star game.
I would keep a close eye on Allen because if he fails, Goldschmidt might get a quick call and I don’t think he needs time at AAA to hit well in the NL West and help the Diamondbacks. He also has a little speed for a few stolen bases, a big plus from a 1B/CI.
Brett Lawrie was supposed to have been recalled in late May but was hit on the hand by a pitch that fractured his hand and is just now playing on rehab and working his way back. I think he will still be up before September, but the Blue Jays look like they will be very cautious with him. When Toronto does call him up he should play every day at third base and be an immediate contributor with the power and even a little speed.
Certainly not a prospect, but Carlos Guillen returned to action at second base for the Detroit Tigers over the weekend. I am skeptical about continuing production for Guillen but in deeper AL leagues he may be a welcome addition at a MI slot.
I also think the Tigers will have to turn to one of their pitching prospects soon as they are clearly poised to win the AL Central if they can get some good pitching. The Phil Coke and Charlie Furbush experiments failed to hold down a spot in the rotation and with Rick Porcello struggling again the Tigers need another starter. Whether that is Andrew Oliver or Jacob Turner or someone with less pedigree that they might feel more comfortable with is the question. Detroit might also try and fill that rotation spot via trade and the rumors have them ready to trade pitching prospect Casey Crosby. Personally I would want to see some results first if they promote a minor leaguer.
Finally I still think that Cleveland will recall Jason Kipnis to play second base in their quest for the AL Central pennant. Orlando Cabrera has had his moments but they are fewer and further between now, and Kipnis has more power potential.
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In the last column of this series, looking at fantasy baseball trades, I want to talk about two key components of trades in keeper leagues: minor league prospects and future draft picks to acquire more prospects.
There is no doubt that fantasy players love their prospects. And what’s not to love: these are potentially All Star hitters and pitchers; players who can be at the core of your fantasy team for years. Well they all can’t be, and frankly the MLB draft process, like the best hitters struggles to get four out of ten right. But whether the prospects we trade for or hope to acquire are a first round pick, or an undrafted player who two years later is rocketing through the minor leagues on his way to a major league roster, prospects offer hope.
And, we all have hope that our team(s) will finally have a dominant season(s), so those minor league prospects – especially the really shiny ones like Bryce Harper or Mike Trout – are what we want to find. In keeper leagues they truly are the “coin of the realm.” So which ones should you trade for? And which ones should you trade away? That my friends, like beauty, is in the eye of the beholder.
But, if you are the team making a run to win your league, don't let your fascination with a player who is perhaps years away from the major leagues hold up a deal that helps you win your league this year. Pennants as they say fly forever. Meanwhile the path to the big leagues is littered with failed prospects.
Keeper leagues have many different formats and rules. Hopefully you play in one where you can acquire minor leaguers, and ideally that would be in a separate draft after your leagues draft, preferably an auction draft. In addition to the complexity of allocating your resources to build your team, an auction not only sets the market for the players in the spring, it gives those Farm players more value along with the hope.
In ideal keeper leagues (at least for me) minor leaguers would have a $5 contract when they are finally activated by their fantasy team. (Actually my AL keeper league has $5 initial salaries for hitters and $3 salaries for pitchers which help to balance the risk with younger pitchers and also prevent only hitters from being drafted in the minor league draft.) That would be in contrast to a $10 “retention salary” of a player who is acquired as a free agent during the season. One other rules note here – keeper leagues that have that or a similar salary structure should also have a special rule in place in September. If you allow players added as free agents in September when MLB rosters have been increased in size and many minor leaguers are up for the month, you have subverted the value of your minor league salary structure. There are two easy ways to avoid that: 1) have a $25 retention salary for any free agent added in September; or 2) have a rule that any free agents added in September like crossover free agents from the other league cannot be kept in the following season.
One further rule will help keeper leagues with the perceived fairness in the inevitable rebuilding or “dump” trades each year. Allow teams to trade minor league draft picks for the following year to help balance those trades. Those minor league picks also give extra inducement to get those deals done – that first round pick next year could be Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper. (One procedural note here is that minor league draft picks traded must always be an exchange – 1st for a 5th at the extreme. You never want a team having more picks than the other teams or a team having no picks in that draft).
Obviously the exact value of draft picks changes with league rules and participants, but here are some examples of trades involving both minor leaguers and/or draft picks made. In several of these it would be near impossible for the “contending teams” to acquire the player(s) they needed without using the minor leaguers or minor league draft upgrades as barter.
Trade #1 – minor leaguers Drew Pomeranz, Blake Swihart, Levi Michael, Andrew Sussac and 1st round 2012 minor league draft pick for Justin Verlander (37D11), Jason Kubel (14D09) and 2nd round 2012 minor league draft pick
Trade #2 – Aaron Hill (13D09) and (middle) 3rd round 2012 minor league draft pick for minor leaguers Lorenzo Cain, Aaron Hicks, and (low) 3rd round 2012 minor league draft pick (estimated draft picks based on finish this year)
Trade #3 – Derrek Lee (19D11), Adam Kennedy (10F11), Carl Pavano (6D11), mler Dennis Raben and 4th and 5th 2012 minor league draft picks for Koji Uehara (8D11), Edwin Nunez (10F11), Jayson Nix (10F11) and 1st and 2nd 2012 minor league draft picks
Trade #4 – Sam Fuld (1D11), minor leaguers Miguel Sano, Dellin Betances, Nick Weglarz and 1st round 2012 minor league draft pick for Neslon Cruz (46D11), Jon Lester (34D10), Corey Patterson (10R11) and 3rd round 2012 minor league draft pick
Trade #5 – Felix Pie (1D11), Kelly Shoppach (1D11), Joel Piniero (3D10), minor leaguers Alex Liddi and Casey Crosby and 2nd round 2012 minor league draft pick for Kurt Suzuki (10C11), Scott Baker (11C11), Alexi Casilla (10F10) and 3rd round 2012 minor league draft pick.{jcomments on}
In the third column on trades and trading, we will look at ways to get some extra points from your trade efforts.
First let’s look again at the recap from the first two columns on trading:
1 – Personal Communication
2 – Get the other team to make the first offer
3 – Evaluate the other team’s roster before making an offer
4 – Make sure you know your league’s trade/keeper rules
5 – Evaluate ALL the changes to your lineup
I can’t emphasize enough the importance of points 3 and 4. It won’t help get trade negotiations started if you begin with a trade the other team would have zero interest in. I mean what would your reaction be if someone tried that with you? It also fully supports the first point – have a real conversation. There have been so many times in doing this that I found out the other team was more interested in a player I hadn’t thought of trading instead of what I perceived to be a better player. Beauty – thus value in keeper leagues - is in the eye of the beholder. You will also avoid overpaying in trades by finding out which players on both his team AND your team your trading partner really likes.
One thing I want to address here that was not mentioned in the previous columns – trades half way through the season should be strictly based on categorical need, not on any perceived dollar earnings either pre-season or mid-year projections. You have less than three months to gain the points you need to win your league (or finish in the money). Get dollar signs and draft day ADP/AAV out of your head.
Let’s say you started the season in an AL only auction redraft league with Mariano Rivera ($19), and Jose Valverde ($13) and early in the season you added the White Sox Sergio Santos as a free agent. You are now way ahead in saves but need some home runs to get you another couple of points in that category. You have called around and found a trading partner who will deal Jhonny Peralta ($9) for Rivera. It makes zero sense for you to be hung up on the fact that you think Mariano is the better pitcher or that he cost more than either Peralta or your other closers. You will shore up a weak MI slot and add enough home runs to gain two points, maybe more if Peralta stays hot, and you will lose no points in saves regardless of which two closers you have on your team.
Let’s look at another example – this from my NL only, 11 team keeper league where these are my current pitchers: (SP) Beachy, Collmenter, Kendrick, Morton, D. Lowe, Vogelsong, McClellan, and (RP) H. Bell and Salas. I also have Tommy Hanson and Jon Garland on the DL, Hanson who is back now and Garland should be next month. I need to trade a starter to get Jose Reyes (in his last year) who should give me enough stolen bases to gain three or four points and perhaps help in some other categories. With the exception of Lowe, all the starters can be kept at prices from $9 to $13. If the only pitcher the Reyes owner will take in this deal is Hanson ($13C13) and making the trade would guarantee I cash this year and give me a shot to win, I make the deal. Sure I might try and trade two of Morton, Vogelsong, Beachy, or Collmenter. But I will make the deal and I will still have Beachy as a nice keeper for next year. The object is to WIN. You get paid for where you finish THIS year, not how many baubles you have in your pocket for next year. Yes, I care about my keepers, and yes sometimes you try and do both. But you have to take advantage of the opportunity at hand. Continually playing for next year which I see people do regularly is shorting your ROI over the long term. Again, Job #1 is winning this year.
Now let’s take a look at how to gain more points through some of your trades. Long time readers may remember “Rotisserie Baseball Math”, an article I wrote several years ago and have updated a few times. The objective is to make a trade where the excess you have is traded to a specific team in the league – a team who with the player(s) you send to them will gain points in a specific category and the team(s) that lose points in that category are your competitors in the league. Thus with no changes to their lineup, they will lose points to you because you found a specific trading partner who would overtake them in a category.
If you look at the table below you will see the stolen base category and distribution of points. As you can see, it is pretty likely I can only get one or two points in stolen bases…..BUT if I could trade my Michael Bourn to Tequila Mockingbirds he would cause at least two, and as many as five teams to lose points in that category. Two of those teams are ahead of me in the overall standings, so giving up the one extra point I have now will cause my opponents to lose points. Meanwhile the closer I get from the Mockingbirds will allow me to gain points in an unrelated category, thus doubling my gain on the trade.
Team |
SB |
Pts |
Dif |
Liquid Hippos – JBL |
99 |
15 |
0 |
Cole Porters |
96 |
14 |
0 |
Doughboys |
88 |
13 |
1 |
Bays Bums |
85 |
12 |
-1 |
Team Devo |
83 |
11 |
0 |
Hackers |
82 |
10 |
0.5 |
Risky Business |
79 |
8.5 |
1.5 |
Initacocktail |
79 |
8.5 |
0.5 |
Tequila Mockingbirds |
78 |
7 |
-2.5 |
Conquistadors |
70 |
5.5 |
1 |
Dreamers |
70 |
5.5 |
1 |
Phagowie |
69 |
4 |
-2 |
Central Park Muggers |
67 |
3 |
0 |
Captain Hook |
60 |
2 |
0 |
Magma |
56 |
1 |
0 |
This type of trade will also present itself when you have an extra player after making a bigger trade. If you are going to have to cut a useful player anyway, why not trade him for whatever you can get – a lower level prospect or a swap of lower draft picks, Especially if you can trade him to a team that might take a point away from one of the teams you are competing against.
Let’s look at some more tips for better trading and ways to evaluate potential trades.
In last week’s column I suggested these two things to put at the top of your list to be able to make better trades:
1 – COMMUNICATION – preferably by phone or in person. You not only want to be able to judge a person’s reaction but don’t want to be lost in a spam filter or have someone misread your email. A casual, direct conversation also lets you get more information without making your objective clear cut.
2 – If possible, get the other party to make the first offer. Like the discussion this also tells you so much about how the other person evaluates players.
Number three could well be number one or two, because if you DON’T look at another team’s roster before you make a specific trade offer you could be proposing something the other owner would never do for whatever reason and derail your trade scenario(s) before you even start. For instance if your trade partner just dealt for a stud keeper, that is not a good trade target for you (unless a conversation revealed some doubt or misgiving on his part). If he lives in any major league city or nearby suburb and/or you know he loves that team (or any MLB team for that matter) then he may not be keen on trading his hometown guy (again knowing the person well or the conversation may confirm or deny this).
In most cases you also should not offer another team a player where they are exceptionally strong. If you have an extra catcher of value that may be interesting to many teams but if your potential trade partner owns VMart and Wieters they are not going to be interested in Joe Mauer no matter how healthy or how cheap he might be. You may laugh at that but I have seen similar offers presented. Note that if he has an expiring VMart and you were offering a much younger/cheaper catcher – say a $4 Alex Avila then you might be able to make a trade but make sure you are offering more than one of your competitors would be in total value.
Now before we look at how to evaluate trades we have to insert one other very important parameter – Be mindful of your league’s rules – and really I specifically mean keeper rules. If you are going to try and sell your good, cheap player and/or top minor leaguer(s) for a Stud player you need to be very aware of your trading partner’s roster. For instance, in a league with a restriction on the number of keepers you would be well advised to very carefully look at his roster and see how many clear keepers he already owns. If your trade offer means he can’t keep all his current players and the ones you are offering, your trade doesn’t have much value – even if you were giving up the best player in the proposed deal. The same goes for leagues where you can only keep so many minor leaguers – even worse if your ability to make a minor league draft pick next spring is contingent on your having an open minor league spot. Again don’t discount this – it could be very important to your potential trade partner (and of course I am going to again tell you that introductory conversation(s) would likely have warned you of his thoughts on these considerations).
Let’s evaluate this trade – you give up Dustin Ackley and get James Shield. Is this a good trade for you OR your partner? Doesn’t that depend on who you have to move out of your active pitcher slots to play Shields? For him doesn’t that depend on who he already has at second base? Or on his minor league farm?
Let’s look at a more typical trade, one I saw a question on:
“Team A trades Troy Tulowitzki to Team B for Melky Cabrera and Jay Bruce?
Well that may well be the trade that is reported between the two teams, but the way to evaluate these trades is by how much it helps your lineup, so for Team A this trade is really
Tulowitzki and the two outfielders you are replacing, for:
Your new shortstop/MI and Melky and Bruce
Without the missing names it is impossible to evaluate this trade. I know the first reaction would be to say that Team B wins the trade because they get the best player in the trade – Tulowitzki. But if you insert the pieces that may not be the case…….Let’s say that Team A had Dustin Ackley on his minor league farm and his 4th and 5th outfielders were David DeJesus, now a part time player for Oakland, and Josh Willingham, now on the DL. His trade is now Tulowitzki, DeJesus, and DLed outfielder for Ackley, Melky and Bruce. THAT is a pretty good short term improvement for his team and if he was actually contending with DeJesus and Willingham, the rest of his roster is pretty good and Ackley, Cabrera, and Bruce should really help for the balance of the year. Conversely if Team A had a really strong outfield if would be hard to see how this team would help him (unless he had a prior trade in place to trade an outfielder or two for say pitching help)
ALWAYS look at the actual changes in your lineup to see how the trade will affect you.
So to recap the first two columns on trading:
1 – Personal Communication
2 – Get the other team to make the first offer
3 – Evaluate the other team’s roster before making an offer
4 – Make sure you know your league’s trade/keeper rules
5 – Evaluate ALL the changes to your lineup
Next time we will look at some additional ways to make your trade impactful.
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In the next two weeks we will not only see a lot of interleague matchups but reach the real half way point of the 2011 season – at least in games played. Why should you be concerned about that?
Because this is really the time that teams get more interested in making trades. And really trading can be a lot of fun. Whether you are fortifying your roster for a playoff/championship run or looking at the competing teams since you aren’t going to be one of them trying to find that underpriced young player or draft day bargain who will help you more next year, there is an art to trading. And a lot of satisfaction from finding some common ground with your mortal competitors.
So I thought I would help some of you trying to find the best ways to consummate good trades. I think this is going to take several columns, so consider this the opening of a series on Trades – and how to make them. Things to do and some things not to do if you will permit me. I will also comment on some recent trades I have been in – some in “Industry Leagues” and some in good, old fashioned, keeper, money leagues.
So let’s start at the beginning – I see some form of this question on the message boards here and numerous other places:
What should I get for Adrian Gonzalez?
What should I offer for Jered Weaver?
Do you think this is a reasonable offer for (insert your own) stud?
And I have to tell you that in all those cases the first thing I think of and would love to type in capital letters even if I get accused of ‘shouting’ is – HOW THE HELL SHOULD I KNOW; WHY DON’T YOU CALL YOUR POTENTIAL TRADE PARTNER? Because all these “worth” questions are subjective.
In these days of internet access from your desk, your car, from phones no bigger than a large cookie but more powerful than my first computer, everyone wants the fast, easy way to do everything. Sorry kids, you can call me old school, old fashioned (a better drink that some of you have never even heard of), or just an old curmudgeon (I see you Drooker) but you are missing an integral part of the trade process – the exchange of thoughts and values regarding our players and teams.
So my first suggestion is to pick up the phone – either an old fashioned black one or a new dingleberry or whatever 4G mini-computer you have in your hand and call a player or players in your league. In fact I suggest you don’t even mention the word trade for several minutes. Talk about the weather, ask him (or her) about their home team – better yet their NFL team or what they think of the lockout – start what we used to call…….Conversations. I will guarantee you that if you try some real social intercourse; you will have a much better idea of how much to ask for a player you want or how much you might be able to get for the player you want to unload.
When the opening greetings have been made, don’t immediately say “I want to trade for Dustin Ackley…”, take a longer, smoother approach. Ask your potential trade partner about how their team is doing…….if they are in third place but have a shot to move up, ask how they view a specific category or competitor in your league. If they are languishing, commiserate with their frustration with Adam Dunn, or the latest player they have that just hit the disabled list; communicate. You will really be surprised at how much better prepared you are to try and work out a specific trade. You will also avoid certain pitfalls with that particular league mate – and that will help both of you to conceive and consummate a trade.
Verbal communication also helps reduce the chance that you or your potential trade partner will misinterpret an email. People read emails with some preconceptions whether it is about the sender or the subject. Trust me. Most all of you will have seen someone comment on the “tone” of an email. Tone? I didn’t write the email with a tone – did you read it that way? The point is we don’t know what someone thinks about the league or his team or a particular player without asking. And the questions in black and white may elicit a response you did not want. It is just as easy these days to pick up whatever phone you want and dial a number than it is to sit down and try and type an email to ask about a trade. Try It! It will also help you with a second goal – get the other party to make the first offer.
Now sometimes we just can’t avoid the quick twenty first century communication. I do think that teams that are considering “trading for the future” given their standings at the bottom of the league this year (dump trade is such in inelegant term) should give everyone in the league notice, but what you can do to alter that is exchange the necessary first emails and then pick up the phone. In my AL keeper league (now older than the legal drinking age) after two teams had already sent up the white flag a friend of mine sent out the laundry list of players he wanted to move. The list of course didn’t include the two most valuable teams on his team – Adrian Gonzalez and Dan Haren - $49 and $39 respectively from this year’s auction.
So I first sent back an email asking about Gonzalez and he responded with the names of my first born – in the fantasy sense – Jeremy, Michael and Mike. Now as much as I love Adrian Gonzalez, not only did I not want to be trading Hellickson or Pineda because I need them to win this year but in fact looking at all the categories, Haren was a much better fit, so I changed the subject. This led to a not unreasonable offer from him – Haren, an outfielder that would be useful, and his 4th round minor league draft pick in 2012 for Joyce, Dotel, and my 2nd round ml pick next year. Haren btw would not be considered by anyone to be a keeper at that price no matter how well he finished the year while Gonzalez could be the foundation for a team with a lot of young talent which he will have next year.
Matt Joyce he wants….My Matt Joyce – one of the steals of the draft this year as I rostered him for only six dollars. Now was the time to pick up the phone because I had to find an outfielder or combination that would help me approach the loss of Joyce but not make the trade so unwieldy we would not be able to collaborate. I explained all my thoughts and my values on his players from his original list. I needed to upgrade his outfielder to Vlad Guerrero and I was willing to add more on my side.
A few more phone calls and emails and we had a deal – one where we both made some concessions: he upgraded the outfielder from a DeJesus, Cust, or Borbon to Vlad; while I upgraded the minor league pick to a first rounder and gave him a list of minor leaguers already on my farm to pick one from. A good result for both teams and one I doubt would have happened without being able to discuss some of the players and options available.
But yes, there are times where you can make a trade via email. This is more likely to be the case in redraft leagues and where one party has already clearly defined what they want. Consider this league wide email from Ron Shandler in the XFL league that Todd, Lawr, and I all play in. Ron wanted to sell power – notably Alex Rodriguez and several others for speed and said…..”I am looking for COMPARABLE stolen bases, OBP and/or starting pitching. I am neither playing for this year or next so
salary/contract is immaterial... because limbo is a nice, comfortable place where I don't have to make a commitment or agonize over going nowhere. But attempting a mid-season Sweeney, particularly in a 5x5
league, is always fun to watch.”
Well I am lower than Ron in the standings by a few places and knew exactly what he meant – better to try and change course and see if you can catch lightning in a bottle and make a run up the standings. In Ron’s mind I am sure it also will be a case study for an article. But I could only gain a point maybe two in stolen bases while I could gain several in both home runs, runs batted in, and runs scored.
So now we get to another step in the trading process – ask for a little more than you want. Not so much you derail any possible trade. I started by stating my case as to why Victorino was more valuable in that league than ARod to ask for Napoli and offered Ron his choice of Davids – DeJesus or Murphy. He countered that he thought he needed more than Murphy (already we have a sale) and asked about a starting pitcher – not a Weaver or a Chacin, just something useful for him that I could spare and we easily settled on Freddy Garcia.
So the trade that will go into effect today is
Victorino, David Murphy and Garcia for ARod, Napoli, and Joaquin Benoit
Nice a fair trade where each team can realize a good result. Something you should always try for and next week we will discuss other ways to evaluate players and get there.
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