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DownloadA week ago it was the “Hosmer Watch”: Fantasy players and Royals fans everywhere wondering how long before Kansas City would choke on Kila Ka'aihue’s lack of production while top prospect Eric Hosmer was hitting over .400 at AAA. Then the Royals management surprised everyone by actually making the move, demoting Ka’aihue to Omaha to see if he can find his stroke and installing Hosmer at first base, likely for the next ten-plus years.
Almost immediately the question on our message boards and in fantasy baseball conversations became: Who will be the next top prospect to be called to stay in a major league lineup?
Of course this is really asking for guesswork, but at least to a very slight degree, I think it can be educated prognostications. Certainly we can’t pretend to know what will happen injury wise to any major or minor leaguers and that could be a deciding factor. But we do know who the top prospects are and how they are doing at AA or more likely AAA, and we can see glaring holes in major league lineups.
The other thing working in favor of making such a list in May is that we are less than a month from the floating date for “Super Twos” which would cost the MLB team an extra year of service and more money.
If you follow Jason Grey’s blog on minor leaguers at ESPN, he updates a list of the top ten or so minor leaguers ready for a callup. And if you follow the exploits of the two major fantasy leagues for fantasy baseball writers and analysts – TOUT and LABR – you can see which minor leaguers have been added recently as well as those rostered in their auction drafts in March. Hosmer in fact was owned in both those AL competitions, as I bought him in the LABR auction (rather than hoping for him as a reserve pick), and Ron Shandler added him in an early FAAB bid for $1.
So who is next? (note – I am excluding players who have already played at the major league level like Brandon Belt (who would be first on this list) or Mike Minor, Ben Revere a speedy Twins outfielder recently called up, and Boston’s shortstop of the future, Jose Iglesias, who was called up Sunday when Marco Scutaro went on the DL)
{jcomments on}As we start the month of May we have finished almost exactly one sixth of the 2011 season. So as the title suggests, is this a day for alarm or for celebration for your fantasy teams?
More importantly with a concrete set of numbers from the first month, what do you need to do with each of your teams to get into a position to win or at least place in your different leagues?
Long time readers will remember my article on Billy Beane and his philosophy for the Oakland Athletics:
While we always preach a little patience – you don’t want to be cutting Alex Rios just to watch him spring to life next month on someone else’s roster – you do need to be proactive as in any league there are players not rostered at the draft who make the most of their chance(s) and will help many teams.
At least this applies to those not in leagues where there are no reserves. Some of these players – Sam Fuld in Tampa Bay – surfaced very early in the season – maybe even before your draft if you drafted after the first weekend of play. Others like Philip Humber, Sergio Santos, or Mitchell Boggs made their team’s opening day rosters but didn’t get their opportunities in their new roles until weeks into the season. Lastly there were several call-ups at the end of April – Vance Worley, Alex White, or David Cooper who look like they will have further chances to help their big league clubs and your fantasy teams. Don’t be late to the party on all of these!
Certainly league rules influence your roster moves. Early poor starts or players drafted who have already lost their jobs/roles have or will spurn some changes in your roster. But don’t let the fact that you are leading your league or doing very well make you complacent about roster changes – and I say that while I am berating myself for a change I failed to make last week.
When the White Sox put Humber into the rotation it wasn’t exactly a buy sign. The former first round pick (who admittedly had his career changed by early Tommy John surgery) hadn’t pitched well enough to be on radar screens. But looking at him once he was starting for the Pale Hose showed much better results. And good results often lead to greater confidence which beget more good results.
Certainly by last week he had shown enough to be picked up in AL only leagues. And in fact, I did pick Humber up in both my AL LABR league and in the FantasyPros AL league. But I failed to add him for a dollar in another AL keeper league, perhaps because I had been in first place all month and because I had a pretty strong group of starters – Ricky Romero, Jeremy Hellickson, Colby Lewis, Michael Pineda, Justin Masterson and Matt Harrison. And with Neftali Feliz going on the DL, I had an open reserve spot so certainly with question marks about both Masterson and Harrison and Lewis off to a poor start, I should have at least put Humber on my list.
There was a hitter I lost out on (that does not immediately spring to mind), but I should have had had a secondary (or tertiary) bid on Humber in case I didn’t win the hitter(s), which I didn’t’. So that failure to add him for a dollar meant this week when I saw more good pitching from him and wanted to add him, I tried a bid of $11 (on a $100 budget for the year) – and I lost to an $18 bid from a team much lower in the standings who needed him more. Don’t be complacent.
Improving your roster every chance you get is an integral part of success over a six month period.
As always, and one of the reasons we suggest not overpaying for saves in your auctions/drafts, there are a lot of changes in MLB bullpen roles this week.
Let’s start with the Texas Rangers where closer Neftali Feliz has been placed on the 15-day disabled list with shoulder soreness. First since I own Feliz in several leagues, let’s hope this is just a short, needed rest – perhaps a tour of colder weather ports before returning to 90 degrees in Arlington led to some inflammation. Next who do we look for on the waiver wire to get some of those suddenly available saves? I think the most likely thing is a division of the save opportunities between LHP Darren Oliver, RHP Darren O’Day, and LHP Arthur Rhodes. This actually should give Ranger manager Ron Washington the freedom to mix and match, BUT….if I had to pick just one to bet on it would be Oliver, who in fact did get the first chance which he quickly converted on Saturday night.
Moving to the Los Angeles Dodgers, I must say that my personal opinion from having watched him in most of his appearances this year is that closer Jonathan Broxton is still not in perfect health. The other options in the Dodger’s bullpen haven’t exactly inspired confidence either, so it is well timed that Hong- Chih Kuo is on rehab at Rancho Cucamonga and could likely rejoin the team by the end of the week. And a chance to give Broxton a sartorial suggestion – call in sick the next time the Dodgers wear those pale blue throwback uniforms – yours makes you look like you are well over 300 pounds, not just a donut away as usual.
Life is never dull around Ozzie Guillen and his bullpen woes have led to more expletive deleted phrases for the writers to dance around. Last week at one point Guillen even said when asked about his bullpen choices said …..”I don’t have a guy to go to down there.” Actually I don’t think that is true, and hopefully one of his better options, Sergio Santos gets the next chance and runs with it to become the (temporary – I still think Thornton returns at some point) White Sox closer. Of course that assumes that the Pale Hose actually get close to scoring some runs and having a lead late in the game. While they have some excellent hitters, some are soundly asleep (Alex Rios – looking at you here); some are prone to dozing off (more coffee for Alexei Ramirez and Paul Konerko); and in general a lifeless offense. In fact, while they will at some point break out (it takes two good games in a row not just one random win), right now I put them with Seattle in the “must pitch your SP against them” category. Hey it has worked well so far.
The Seattle Mariners, like the White Sox, don’t get that many save chances, and Brandon League hasn’t really been that bad with those he has had, but closer David Aardsma is on rehab and should return late this week or early next. If Aardsma is immediately successful, this can allow League to go back to the eighth inning setup spot and strengthen the Mariners bullpen.
Ryan Madson got two saves over the weekend for the Phillies. The first came Friday night after current closer Jose Contreras had pitched on consecutive nights and was being given a rest. The second came in an extra-inning game on Saturday when Contreras had already been used. Madson of course was last year’s necessary handcuff for Brad Lidge and this year it was a very good play to pair him with either Lidge and/or Contreras. With Lidge going on the DL before the season started, it enabled me to freeze Contreras for $10 when I would have pitched him back in an NL keeper league and then during the auction I was able to add Madson for two bucks for a very productive pair of relief pitchers. Now with Contreras on the 15 day disabled list and out for an indefinite amount of time with strained right flexor pronator tendon, Madson will be the guy for the foreseeable future, with Antonio Bastardo - who has earned high praise from manager Charlie Manuel - sneaking a few save chances with left-handed hitters due up.
Finally one note for both AL and NL only fantasy players – if it is not too late. Last week’s DFA of Brandon Wood by the Angels and subsequent waiver claim by the Pittsburgh Pirates created a unique pair of opportunities assuming you have the right conditions in your league(s). Wood will get a chance to work with Pittsburgh manager Clint Hurdle who is an excellent hitting coach. If the resurrection works, there is nothing in Pittsburgh in the way of Wood playing every day at shortstop. So….if you are in an AL only league and had Wood on reserve or more sympathy in your active lineup, don’t run to toss him away if you will get credit for his NL stats. I think it is worth waiting to see if Wood finally gets the chance the Angels never gave his prodigious bat – at least that is what I am doing. In NL only leagues with reserve spots (or where you have a totally dead spot at SS or MI) I would pick him up and stash him and again see whether he can finally become a viable fantasy player.
While we constantly talk about small sample size and patience with players who haven’t hit their stride yet, we do have two-plus weeks of games and some assessments are in order.
So far in 2011, I have two very solid mantras for my pitching staffs:
1. Pitch virtually any starter against the Seattle Mariners
That is one very poor offense and most days won’t beat any kind of good pitching,
However the corollary is you shouldn’t rush to add or keep starters who have a great game against the Mariners (Sean O’Sullivan that means you).
2. Pitch all starters in PETCO Park whether they are Padres or visiting teams
In addition to the huge pitchers park, some guy named Adrian is gone and that offense is also very poor (again on marginal starters, pitch & ditch should be the plan)
Now let’s talk about some pitchers that were really on the low end of draft lists (unless you drafted after opening day). Some of these hurlers were very close for me on a skills basis but we don’t always see good spring training habits/pitching approaches carried into the season…..to wit:
You have likely seen several references to this over the years, but the beginning of your fantasy season is not the time to overreact to daily developments on Major League fields. Patience is a virtue in many things but especially in early season roster management.
Sure you don’t like to see your hitters not providing at least some offense or your starting pitchers looking like the batting practice hurler, but the season is young and many players are still trying to get their timing down and adjust to the new season.
If you thought Fausto Carmona was a decent pitcher to roster in your league, then benching him for 10 runs given up in his first start took away the seven shutout innings next time out for your team. Nobody, repeat nobody is good enough to guess any given days results on a regular basis. The sewers of Las Vegas are littered with many who thought they could do it often enough.
I am not saying that fantasy owners should not be on top of emerging players or changes in lineups that need to be noted. Just be wary of cutting what have been and are likely to be again this year valuable players who happened to get off to a poor start. Cutting those players may well get you a double dose of the ughs as your former player coming to life on a competitors team is just as hard to watch.
Perhaps Cardinals manager Tony LaRussa summed it up best in his clip where the manager goes off after being asked about the Cardinals start. Link here for the text and link and have someone to commiserate with your team’s struggles.