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DownloadLast week, I noted the arrival of two very highly regarded prospects to the New York Mets and Chicago Cubs and suggested you would have to pay a lot to roster either one.
So how did that turn out? Well, Kevin Plawecki, the lesser known of the two, was certainly available in more leagues, whether keeper or redraft. In fact, Plawecki was added in every single one of the 30 main event leagues in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. The average price to FAAB Plawecki? 85 dollars, with the highest winning bid being $228 while the lowest winning bid was $36. Certainly, catchers who can hit are hard to find and with injuries already depleting rosters, Plawecki was an appealing target.
Addison Russell, the second best NL hitting prospect and one of the top five overall prospects, was owned in most NL keeper leagues and in several redraft leagues as the NFBC results clearly show there were eight teams among the 450 participants who spent a reserve pick on Russell. Owners hoping that he would eventually get a call to Wrigley Field surely had no idea it would be this early in the season.
And if catchers are scarce, so are middle infielders as Russell was FAABed at an average cost of $293 in the 22 leagues where he was a free agent. The highest winning bid was quite a reach at $757 while the lowest winning bid was a bargain at $125.
Oddly enough, both the Cubs and Mets are teams with attractive free agents for the coming week as well. The Cubs called up left fielder Junior Lake and even if he is on the short side of a platoon with Chris Coghlan, Lake has more power and speed and could win the job outright as Coghlan was hitting only .226 in 53 April at-bats. True it is early in the week as I write this, but so far, Lake is the only new hitter called up who would attract a bid in mixed leagues.
However, another rash of pitching injuries is bringing several highly regarded prospects to the major leagues this week. One of the first was Mets RHP Rafael Montero who, was called up to give the Metropolitans an extra pitcher this week. However, if Montero pitches well, he could easily stick in a rotation that has been strong at the front end but not so good at the back end. (Editor's Note: The Mets optioned Montero to Triple-A Las Vegas following his Tuesday night start.)
With Max Scherzer pushed back due to his sore thumb, the Nationals chose not to use Tanner Roark, who was already on their roster. Instead, they brought up one of their best pitching prospects, RHP A.J. Cole. The 23-year-old, whose fastball sits in the low 90s, got roughed up by the Braves in his big league debut Tuesday night and will now likely head back to Triple-A Syracuse. If Scherzer is unable to go this weekend, Roark could get the call.
Homer Bailey of the Reds is on the DL and likely headed for season-ending surgery, prompting Cincinnati to recall prospect Michael Lorenzen. Also 23, Lorenzen was a centerfielder and closer at Cal State Fullerton who could throw in the high 90s but was short on the secondary pitches a starting pitcher would need. The Reds thought that Lorenzen could develop and be more valuable as a starting pitcher, and as of this writing, he is scheduled to start Wednesday in Great American Ball Park as the Reds host the Milwaukee Brewers. We will see how the audition goes, but clearly there is an opening in the Reds’ rotation.
The St. Louis Cardinals lost ace SP Adam Wainwright to a season-ending Achilles injury suffered as he left the batting box Sunday, and the club has chosen to promote Tim Cooney, a lefty with an easy motion, because their top pitching prospect, Marco Gonzales, is currently on the DL. Another audition that may or may not result in a FAAB candidate this weekend.
The Los Angeles Dodgers need to replace Brandon McCarthy, another starter facing season-ending surgery. But it doesn’t look at this point like they will promote a prospect. Instead, they will probably keep veteran Scott Baker in the rotation and perhaps recall Mike Bolsinger or Carlos Frias to fill in for the short term.
But there are several days left before your free agent target list needs to be finalized for this week. There may well be several more new targets. {jcomments on}
It is very rare for top minor league prospects to be called up to the big leagues in April – even rarer since Kris Bryant arrived in Week 2 and this week both his Cubs prospect mate Addison Russell and one of the Mets’ top hitting prospects, catcher Kevin Plawecki, have arrived in Week 3.
In NL keeper leagues, of course, both Plawecki and Russell are likely owned, but players in redraft leagues or NL leagues without minor league prospects should see which of these players fit their needs this year best and then decide on how much they can afford to bid. And be sure the prices won’t be cheap.
Let’s take a look at them individually and see if I can translate what to expect both on the field and in the bidding.
Addison Russell arrived in Chicago in the Jeff Samardzija trade from Oakland. The 21-year-old shortstop from Pensacola, Florida was drafted out of high school as the 12th overall pick in the 2012 draft. I saw him play briefly that summer with the Athletics rookie league team in Arizona and immediately moved him to the upper echelon of AL prospects.
In three minor league seasons, Russell has averaged .300 with double-digit home runs and stolen bases, although you have to know that he only had 217 at-bats in 2012 (the year he was drafted), and 258 at-bats in 2014, when hamstring problems cost him half the season. So perhaps the 2013 season, when Russell had 429 at-bats in 107 games at High-A Stockton, deserves more weight. Yes, it was in the hitter-friendly Cal league, but that year he scored 85 runs with 17 home runs, 21 stolen bases and 60 RBI while hitting .275 with an OBP of .377.
Behind those numbers is above average athleticism, very quick hands, and good power for his age. While I think he would be fine as a major league shortstop, there have been some questions about his range and arm, but he is very accurate, so I think he would have been fine. But he won’t be playing shortstop this year, as the Cubs had the foresight to have him play some second base at Triple-A Iowa. The injury to Tommy La Stella and the slow start by Arismendy Alcantara will see Russell deployed at second base for the Cubs this year and potentially longer depending on the development of Javier Baez and Alcantara, or the Cubs need to eventually trade Starlin Castro.
So while he would be even more valuable in OBP leagues, I think you will still get a good batting average with double-digit homers and steals. Unfortunately, that will translate to a FAAB price of greater than half of your league’s yearly allotment (whether that is $100 or $1000).
Kevin Plawecki is likely a lesser known commodity in your leagues, although the 6’2”, 225 lb., 24-year-old catcher is the New York Mets' best hitting prospect according to MLB.com (third best according to Baseball America). Plawecki was also drafted in 2012 (the first supplemental pick) but out of Purdue University, hence the difference in age.
The one word I see used most to describe him as both a hitter and a catcher is "solid." He is a very good receiver and game caller behind the plate but does not have the great arm of some catchers or catching prospects. As a hitter, Plawecki has averaged .295 with eight home runs and almost 60 RBI in three years across five levels. In fact, his 2014 season split between Double-A Binghamton and Triple-A Las Vegas was his best with the bat with a combined .309 average, 11 home runs and 64 RBI. His mature bat out of college has translated well as he has also averaged a .372 OBP in the three minor league years (thus my preemptive $3 grab Sunday night in the Tout Mixed Draft league).
The only thing we don’t know with Plawecki is how long Travis d'Arnaud will be out with the broken hand, and what will happen to him after that. In mixed keeper leagues, I would be less worried about that because there is always a trade possibility. Still, his short-term value is very high and I think his FAAB cost will be $100-200 for teams starved for production from their backstops, especially the d’Arnaud owners.
Note that both Russell (#2) and Plawecki (#47) were highly rated in my NL list for Mastersball’s 2015 Minor League Prospect lists. {jcomments on}
Last Tuesday evening, 15 baseball writers gathered online to draft their teams for the 2015 Mixed League Draft. Since I lost the 2014 title on the last day of the season to Roto Rob’s Tim McLeod (we were tied after Saturday and I lost points while Tim gained some so I lost by 2.5), Tim had the first pick of draft spots and chose 1.01 and thus Mike Trout.
Since this is a 5x5 league with on-base percentage replacing batting average, Todd has Andrew McCutchen, Paul Goldschmidt and Giancarlo Stanton all ranked the same for projected earning, so I chose 1.03 so I would have a choice of either Goldschmidt and the remaining outfielder or of the two outfielders. If I chose #4, I would still get one of the three but I wouldn’t have a choice.
So after Brent Hershey of Baseball HQ chose McCutchen, I took the top first baseman Goldschmidt. Now the long wait until 2.13. Sadly, all of my primary targets were taken so I jumped on Houston’s second-year outfielder George Springer, who with OBP replacing BA, takes a huge jump in the rankings. That was the easy part. Now I was hoping that one of the remaining top shortstops – Ian Desmond or Jose Reyes, or Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre would make it around the turn. No such luck – all three along with SP David Price were gobbled up by Brent and Tim. Could I have reversed the picks? Who really knows, but Springer is projected to earn ten dollars more than any of those players and I wanted maximum stats from my first three hitters. At 3.03, the best hitter available was Atlanta first baseman Freddie Freeman, and while I might not do it in BA leagues, his projected OBP of .382 with 25 home runs was enough to put him on my team. Yes, with the hopes I would squeeze first basemen for my competitors.
My plan for the 4/5 turn was to take the best starting pitcher available and perhaps one of the best remaining outfielders or Marlins second baseman Dee Gordon. Gordon went earlier in round 4, so I took Jordan Zimmermann at 4.13 and waited to see if Yoenis Cespedes or Kole Calhoun would be there in round 5. Well, along with Cole Hamels and Zack Greinke, they were drafted in front of me so I decided to jump rankings again because Matt Harvey was not making it back to 6.13.
So that was the base of my draft but you don’t want to hear every decision, so here is my team, along with the draft spots.
C – John Jaso (11.03) and Chris Iannetta (15.03) – Perhaps not the power from other backstops but both with very good OBP which would allow me to have enough ballast to draft some riskier picks in later rounds.
CI – Goldschmidt (1.03), Matt Carpenter (9.03) and Freeman (3.03) - Lots more OBP help.
MI – Marcus Semien (8.13), Ben Zobrist (6.13) and Brandon Phillips (23.03)
OF – Springer (2.13), Mookie Betts (7.03), Leonys Martin (13.03), Michael Saunders (17.03) and Anthony Gose (20.13)
UT – Adam Lind (21.03)
Reserves – Luis Valbuena (24.13), Jose Peraza (25.03) and Norichika Aoki (26.13)
SP – Zimmermann (4.13), Harvey (5.03), Tyson Ross (10.13), John Lackey (19.03), Jarred Cosart (22.13)
P – Aaron Sanchez (14.13) - I like him whether he is starting or closing in Toronto.
RP – Fernando Rodney (12.13), Tyler Clippard (16.13) and LaTroy Hawkins (18.13)
Reserves – Luis Severino (27.03), Alex Colome (28.13) and Joe Kelly (29.03)
I like the versatility with Zobrist eligible at 2B/SS/OF, Semien at 2B/3B and will add SS, and Luis Valbuena at 2B/3B. That will allow several different lineups. Peraza, when he arrives in Atlanta, will provide a lot of stolen bases and if I don’t need them, allow me to trade for something I might need.
On the pitching staff, I like the strong NL lean of the starters and perhaps having extra saves to trade at some point.
Yes, as you can tell from my comments above, it is a trading league. It is also a league with unlimited DL slots and the ability to DL an active player and replace with a reserve during the week if necessary.
I will post some updates throughout the season but I'm always glad to answer questions here or in the MB Forums. {jcomments on}
On Saturday night, after scoring the Mariners 11-7 win over the White Sox, I drove downtown to participate in the LABR AL auction against 11 other stalwart writers. The full results are not publishable until USA Today’s Leviathan issue hits the newsstands in two weeks, but I can share my team and observations for those of you getting ready for AL redraft leagues.
As I put together my draft plan on Friday, I wanted to take advantage of two known elements of this industry auction league – early overspending and late bargains in the end game. One way to do that would be to stay out of the early battles, saving enough auction dollars to win the midgame battles. BUT there is one pitfall to that strategy that you should watch for very early – someone else, or even worse, two other competitors trying the same approach. That will lead to some very tough bidding wars over players who don’t deserve them.
So as the bidding started, I watched it go to 60 dollars overbid before it stalled and then went back up to over 90 dollars above projected values. And that is not just my opinion. Lenny Melnick of RotoExperts.com, who was one of the commentators on the Sirius/XM broadcast of the auction, pointed out the same thing. But while most of the early nominations were drawing those high bids, I noted with curiosity that Rotowire’s Chris Liss was not winning any battles, strange since he is usually a Stars and Scrubs bidder. In the early going, I wanted to get players at or slightly below their projected value only if I though they have a good shot to earn more.
Always on the lookout for a bargain, I still wanted a solid core of hitters, so early on I rostered Hanley Ramirez at $30 because shortstop is thin and if you pass on a chance in an AL league to get Ramirez or Jose Reyes, then you may have to fight for one you want or settle for a lot less production late in the auction. Then I got Houston catcher Evan Gattis for $24 – again willing to go a little higher for the home runs at that position. In my opinion, there are just three top hitting AL catchers and Gattis came up before Salvador Perez or Yan Gomes.
We had a couple of rounds in now and the only player Chris Liss had rostered was David Ortiz. There were others with money but they were actively bidding. Ominous sign (well maybe he had heard my Saturday morning interview with Fantistics on Sirius/XM where I had said he was a hot bidder).
So I got back in before the two teams with more money got active and bought Tigers’ second baseman Ian Kinsler for $21. That turned out to be a magic number for me as I added new Seattle fly chaser and power hitter Nelson Cruz for that price (a little under where I thought he should go) and then Yan Gomes for the same price (a dollar or two high but it gave me two outstanding backstops for a two-catcher AL-only league). I pulled back at that point, waiting for prices to go down a little, hoping for bargains but trying to get a few more players before I waited for the end game. At the pizza break, Liss had only two players and $216 left to spend and I doubted he would find enough to overpay on but he would have the hammer until the end game.
So here is my roster, with prices:
C – Gattis (24) and Gomes (21)
CI – James Loney (8), David Freese (6) and Luis Valbuena (4)
MI – Kinsler (21), H. Ramirez (30) and Josh Rutledge (4)
OF – Cruz (21), Danny Santana (16), Dalton Pompey (11), Kevin Kiermaier (7) and Jake Marisnick (2)
UT – Justin Smoak (2)
Reserve Draft – Mark Canha, Ryan Ludwick and Billy Burns
SP – Masahiro Tanaka (15), Anibal Sanchez (14), Danny Duffy (7), Joe Kelly (3), Alex Colome (2),
Jarrod Parker (1)
P – Aaron Sanchez (8) Will he be SP or RP? Either way, he will be worth more.
RP – Dellin Betances (19) and Zach Britton (14)
Reserve Draft – Nathan Karns, Luis Severino and Martin Perez (DL)
An important note about reserves in LABR – they can be activated and reserved during each lineup period whereas players bought in the auction can NOT be reserved – they can be put on the DL but otherwise must be dropped if you can’t stand them active any longer. Also, LABR like TOUT has unlimited DL slots, so in Week 1, I can DL Parker and replace him and then if Colome loses the last spot in the Tampa rotation, I can reserve him and either get a new pitcher via FAAB or if Karns wins the spot, activate him. The same is true should Josh Rutledge not win the second base job in Anaheim – I could either reserve him if sent to the Minors or waive him and move Santana to MI and activate Canha.
Always glad to answer questions here or on in the MB Forums but I can’t reveal other prices until they are published in USA Today. {jcomments on}
I participated in another NFBC 15-team, mixed, 5x5 auction league last week and while some of my purchases will be of interest, I think after several early auctions we can clearly see certain trends and pitfalls for you to put into your study notes.
As always, there is a lot of overspending in the early rounds of the auction. This was a private NFBC auction with 13 NFBC players competing with head honcho Greg Ambrosius and his first officer Tom Kessenich. A small money league with a lot of bragging rights on the line. (Listed as FEB 26 7:45 PM EST Auction w/FAAB, w/Greg & Tom if you want to read about it on the NFBC message boards.) So let’s take a look at the first two rounds of nominations and some of my brief comments.
Round One
1. |
M. Trout |
$51 |
Great player but a net loss |
2. |
C. Kershaw |
$40 |
Usually goes low 40s |
3. |
B. Hamilton |
$18 |
A few dollars less than projected value |
4. |
A. Jones |
$29 |
Right on the mark |
5. |
M. Fiers |
$9 |
Early attempt to steal failed |
6. |
J. Bautista |
$28 |
Good buy – just a few dollars over |
7. |
H. Bailey |
$5 |
A bet he regains health early |
8. |
J. Altuve |
$31 |
Don’t pay for 2014 stats |
9. |
P. Goldschmidt |
$38 |
Would like to get for a few pennies less |
10. |
J. Reyes |
$20 |
Should be slight profit here |
11. |
S. Strasburg |
$28 |
A tad expensive but could be worth it |
12. |
A. McCutchen |
$43 |
You don’t want to go over $40 |
13. |
F. Hernandez |
$33 |
Reasonable but I don’t spend over $30 for P |
14. |
G. Stanton |
$45 |
Ten dollars over projected value |
15. |
A. Rendon |
$33 |
High 20s at most, 2B pool is deep |
Round Two
1. |
J. Abreu |
$37 |
Highest I have seen on Abreu |
2. |
T. Tulowitzki |
$30 |
Too much for part-time player |
3. |
C. Kluber |
$27 |
We all love Kluber but he can’t earn that much |
4. |
C. Sale |
$31 |
Good price if he is your guy (well before the injury) |
5. |
J. Arrieta |
$15 |
A tad high unless he can take another step |
6. |
Y. Puig |
$26 |
The potential is there but I wouldn’t pay that much |
7. |
M. Cabrera |
$36 |
Only works IF he is healthy on opening day |
8. |
M. Bumgarner |
$28 |
Just a few dollars over |
9. |
A. Beltre |
$27 |
Only two top third basemen but lots below |
10. |
Y. Darvish |
$24 |
This is a silly price for Yu and You |
11. |
T. Frazier |
$27 |
Another over ten dollars over projected |
12. |
C. Gomez |
$38 |
Another magical year? I will take the under |
13. |
A. Rizzo |
$33 |
Price keeps climbing – will his HR? |
14. |
J. Donaldson |
$31 |
Love Donaldson in Rogers Centre but high |
15. |
R. Cano |
$27 |
Finally a decent price for Robbie |
I bid on more than half those players but wouldn’t pay those prices. IF you can conserve your money, you will still have lots of good players to buy AND make a profit on most of them.
That doesn’t mean I won’t spend the extra dollar or two when there is a player I really need, as you will see, but staying at $30 or less is a better way to build a roster – you want all your hitters to have starting jobs so you can have more at-bats thus more counting stats than your competitors.
So here is my team:
C – Jonathan Lucroy (20), Salvador Perez (15)
CI – Adam LaRoche (12), Matt Carpenter (13), Adam Lind (2)
MI – Dee Gordon (26), Ian Desmond (27), Chris Owings (2)
OF – Yoenis Cespedes (23), Kole Calhoun (19), Austin Jackson (3), Dexter Fowler (2), Josh Reddick (4)
UT – Everth Cabrera (2)
SP – Sonny Gray (19), Tyson Ross (17), Doug Fister (9), Chris Archer (8), Jered Weaver (5), John Lackey (3)
RP – Mark Melancon (17), Koji Uehara (11), Tyler Clippard (2)
If you haven’t taken a good look at our position value sheet or the Tiers sheets, I suggest you do to see which positions are really lean and where you have more options. There are plenty of good catchers to roster this year. In my opinion, the problem position is shortstop, where the top end is just four deep with Hanley Ramirez and Ian Desmond at the top closely followed by Troy DL Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes. If you don’t want to bid what it takes to get one of those, you better find a few alternatives that you like and hope you aren’t in a bidding war for them. Almost all middle infielders this year will come from the healthier 2B pool.
Another thing to keep in mind when you make your draft plan is that the real bargains come in the end game when there are plenty of nice players at just TWO positions – outfielders and starting pitchers. (Yes, there are some nice setup relievers but you want to add those in reserve – i.e. free rounds or via FAAB, not in the auction.)
Look at my last two outfielders – Jackson is projected to earn $10 and I got him for $3 while Reddick is projected to earn $9 but only cost $4 (and he was my last player so I went all in to make sure there weren’t other bids). Similarly, Weaver will earn double digits, so a nice profit at $5, and Lackey could get there but certainly a small profit at $3 even if he doesn’t.
Platinum readers will soon be able to see my 2015 auction plan. {jcomments on}