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DownloadWell after those trades I had some holes to fill.
You say you punted, so who cares? Well that is not the right way to play – for many reasons. Teams that are rebuilding still have an obligation to all the teams in the league to play the best lineup they can. Maintaining the integrity – or as much as possible – in all the categories is the right thing to do.
Beyond that, keeper leagues should have some mechanism to get every team to play as hard as they can throughout the season. In this league (as in several others that I play in) part of that incentive is that the highest team in the standings that finishes out of the money – 5th place in this league – gets the first minor league draft pick as well as the first reserve pick in next year’s draft. Well that could be VERY important and fits in perfectly with the idea of this team – rebuild it to be competitive as soon as possible.
You have likely heard people refer to two year plans. Some players think this means rebuild for two years and of course it is possible you have to do that but it shouldn’t be your objective. My punting any chance to finish in the money was dictated by injuries (I certainly wouldn’t have gone this route if Madson was closing to start the year) and by the fact that there were several teams in the league with fantastic freeze lists. My hope for 2013 is to be one of those teams.
Free agents you may collect may also be fine ten dollar keepers the following spring (Vance Worley, Darwin Barney; Paul Goldschmidt just to name a few from 2011). So you constantly try to mine the free agent pile for those AND for any potential closers – whether for this year where they can either gain you points or be more trade chips or for next year.
So after my trades I had two “zeroes” in my lineup (Matt Hague and Kyle Blanks) and wanted to replace them for last week. I may have overspent for the Cardinals CI Matt Carpenter - BUT keep in mind he has a clear road to playing time while Lance Berkman is out and neither Berkman or David Freese have been in the lineup every game. That means again he may be a trade chip or if the stars aligned perfectly maybe he is the first baseman in St. Louis next year (okay it’s a long shot but it’s also worth the try, as the old adage goes – if you’ve got the slot, he’s worth the spot). So I did outbid a few of the competing teams with a large $234 of my FAAB. That took care of the corner slot and $15 more FAAB got me Matt Diaz for the outfield position. I also spent $69 to roster Kyle Kendrick (yeah looked a lot better before Monday’s start) who will be starting for the Phillies while Cliff Lee is out.
Things were going fine – still maintaining a nice 6th place which realistically is probably the best I can do unless one of the contending five teams flips later and trades out. But again it means a lot to have that earlier minor league pick.
As the end of the week approached I was suddenly contacted by Team 5 who should have won the league last year after a brilliant draft. But team management just starts there and the owner was very negligent about free agent pickups to plug holes and also very reluctant to trade his minor league chips to improve his team. So he finished second on a year he was dealt the Championship. This year he agreed to let his minority partner help him with some team management (and he made a very nice albeit via a gigantic overbid to roster Tony Campana called up by the Cubs who has already delivered five stolen bases in part time play this week). So they want Tommy Hanson to pitch for their team. Well I explain that will cost a significant amount since Hanson’s contract 15C13 is one of my best keepers for next year. Yeah he understands that and will deal their best minor leaguer – one Anthony Rizzo who will now have a much better hitter’s park when called up later this year. Long story short we are on our way to a deal….
When the “phone” rings and Team 2 is back having watched all their competitors in my cupboard last week and they have more injuries. AND they want Hanson and while I think they wanted to expand the deal I tell them I have another buyer so I will need something extra besides Brett Jackson who they know they will have to put on the table.
Well this is fun but ultimately I didn’t get to make the decision – Team 5’s majority partner wouldn’t trade Rizzo in what would have been a fantastic deal for them as I was going to include the Brewer’s shortstop Alex Gonzalez for their Rizzo and another player I liked.
So trade four was made, Hanson for MLers Brett Jackson (CHC), and Matt Lipka (ATL), an infielder that the Atlanta Braves decided was better suited for center field. 2011 was Lipka’s first full year in professional baseball (at age 19) and he didn’t show as much power as expected but did steal twenty-eight bases. If Lipka continues to develop as a defender, he may well grow into the power at that age. I can wait.
Jackson on the other hand if you don’t already know is a likely 20-20 center fielder who I expect to see in Wrigley field later this summer. In a way adding a player to my future outfield is better than potentially having a third first baseman to go with Gaby Sanchez and Ryan Howard.
Another great outing by Joe Saunders and news that Wade Miley will stay in the Diamondbacks rotation helped the local baseball coverage and kept my place in the standings. Let’s see what we can find next week.{jcomments on}
Part III – Reshaping the Roster
In Part II we looked at how I acquired this team in the auction:
C – Hanigan (6C12) and Ramos (8D11)
CI – Sanchez (10C13), Freese (8C12), and R. Howard (29D12)
MI – Dnl Murphy (2D11), Crawford (5D12), and Furcal (16D12)
OF – Heisey (5D10), Schierholtz (10F11), Ethier (34D12), Parra (6D12), & Venable (16D12)
UT – Alex Gonzalez (10D12)
SP – Hanson (15C13), Beachy (12D11), Delgado (5D12), Detwiler (5D12), Samardzija (8D12)
RP – H. Bell (22D11), Madson (2D11), D. Hernandez (1D12), & Brothers (3D12)
[Contracts D/drafted; F/free agent; or R/reserve are the year in which the player was rostered; C is the year a long term contract ends;semi-standard keep three years or give long term contract at +$5 per year]
In the reserve rounds I drafted:
Tyler Greene, 2B/SS, STL – put at second so I could move Murphy to CI putting Howard on the DL
Freddy Galvis, 2B/SS, PHL – some upside or lineup fix if I traded a shortstop early
Joe Saunders, SP, AZ – had good ratios first game out to use Week 2; and subsequently another good outing and a W in Week 3
Wade Miley, RP/SP, AZ – subbed in for Madson Week 1
Josh Lindblom, RP, LAD – subbed in for Week 1 when Detwiler didn’t pitch
I froze five minor leaguers (we pay $10 cash for each one retained to the prize pool but they are five dollar players when we activate them) – Jose Ceda, P, MIA; Nick Akins, OF, LAD; Kyle Skipworth, C, MIA; Ivan DeJesus Jr., SS, LAD; and J.C. Ramirez, P, PHL.
In this year’s minor league draft (held after the auction) I had the third pick – unfortunately but naturally the teams ahead of me took Trevor Bauer and Christian Yelich (sigh) so I went a little outside the box and took Brad Boxberger who came over to the Padres in the Mat Latos deal and looks to be the closer of the future in San Diego. I followed that up with Joe Panik, 2B, SF; Robbie Erlin, P, SD; Scott Van Slyke, 1B, LAD; and Christian Bethancourt, C, ATL. The minor leaguers are a key part of rebuilding. You want the most impactful players you can get for the long term but in this league I don’t want them up in April this year which would force activation. IF Boxberger eventually closes for San Diego that will be huge – there aren’t many true closers you can identify early. Panik was the Giants first round pick last June and IMO is likely their second baseman next opening day (could also play at shortstop). Erlin along with Joe Wieland came over to the Padres in the Mike Adams trade and are two excellent young pitchers (in fact Wieland got the call up after this draft). Van Slyke (yes, son of Andy) is a power hitting first baseman who I think is getting closer and unless James Loney rediscovers how to hit the ball over the fence could be in Dodger Stadium by 2013. Bethancourt wowed everyone in the Arizona Fall League – unfortunately the power hitting catcher will have to wait for Brian McCann to retire or leave Atlanta as a free agent, or get traded to a new organization himself.
Okay the next order of business which I did the day after I drove back from LALAland was to email the ENTIRE league with a list of the players who were available in trade. The entire is capitalized because it is key – you never know who thinks there are competing and who isn’t. Maybe a team is off to a great start in the standings for the first two weeks and can’t see the forest through the trees. More important you want every competing team to realize they had a shot at these players. You don’t want to be the guy that just negotiates with one of your friends and leaves the other teams out in the cold. You also want to stimulate some early competition for the most sought after players.
I know a lot of players who would tell you to wait – you would get more if you waited until June or July to make the trade. Trust me that is not the case, especially if you have several players you want to move. If you move a player or two in early trades you stimulate the OTHER teams because they don’t want to be left behind – you WANT them to want to make trades too. It may not be with your BUT early trading stimulates later trading. (If you don’t believe me keep reading and tell me I could have done better in June).
Even if you don’t make a trade right away you want an owner (hopefully two) to think about putting David Freese (last year of contract) or Andre Ethier into their lineup.
The same day I sent the email I got two responses. The first from a friend of mine who had a hole at 3B/CI and wanted Freese. The second was from the team that froze their entire team and they were also interested in Freese as well as Beachy (who I wasn’t eager to trade since he was a likely keeper for 2013 but he was the only starting pitcher who would generate the buzz aside from Hanson who I was not trading (at least not right now).
So Team 1 was a good trade partner because he had drafted Giants catcher Jesus Sanchez for $3 and my feeling aside from the fact that Sanchez can rake is that whether it is for some games at 1B or DH the Giants will have to play Posey at first base. In fact they may need to move him there for his psyche and to protect him and it is easier since Brandon Belt can play the outfield. I could trade him both expiring contracts – Freese and Hanigan and get Sanchez and a top prospect. In all transparency here Sanchez was actually an auction target of mine if I could get him cheap I thought he would be a decent C2 if I traded Hanigan this year and if not certainly next year, but when I bought Alex Gonzalez it inadvertently filled my UT spot.
Team 2 would be more difficult. First they want Beachy but they refused to trade one of their top prospects (they have Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, and Brett Jackson on their farm along with Gerrit Cole from previous years and would draft some nice players this year). Be firm with these types of teams – it’s all about finding common ground. What I told them was that they were welcome to keep all three “untouchables” they just wouldn’t win the league this year. After a few frank communiques back and forth that was put to rest but they wanted Ethier “thrown in”. Yeah and I want to win the next Powerball drawing. But they finally agreed they would give up Jackson (look if you know a team won’t deal a particular player – in this case Harper who they drafted three years ago while he was in high school, don’t beat it to death) and some additional prospects.
However as I pointed out to them – it would literally hand them the league and stifle further trading and make me the league Ahole. Of course they didn’t care but that is not how to do business - it’s a Keeper league – that means keeping the owners as well as the players. I certainly wouldn’t want someone to do that to me.
The following day I get an email from Team 3 and living in Los Angeles they think Ethier would look great on their roster (and he would). They also had an interest in Beachy but didn’t need or want Freese. They have some very nice prospects and they are generally good guys to deal with. So in the reply I told the partner communicating with me that I was interested in Starling Marte a very good hitting prospect (who can already play major league defense in the outfield) in the Pittsburgh organization. In fact if the Pirates had not just signed Andrew McCutchen and Jose Tabata to long term contracts and if Alex Presley wasn’t as good as he is, Marte might have broken with the club. Still some in their organization would like to bring him up soon – but where would he play? Not a problem, I don’t want him playing this year. So Team 3 would call me back on Sunday after the partners conferred.
Meanwhile I had to keep the other teams at bay and deal with Team 4 who now wanted to tell me that Ethier was overpriced but they had some interest in both he and Venable. Fine - an email to explain how I felt about Ethier and they were on the back burner.
Team 2 writes me back to tell me they won’t deal for any one guy they want all three. I tell the computer screen where it can hide THAT email.
A few emails to Team 1 and we have that trade almost done – I just have to decide whether I want Pittsburgh fly chaser and power hitter Josh Bell or Phillies SP prospect Trevor May. I decide overnight that I don’t mind getting both Pirate outfielders despite the playing time jam – Bell has the higher upside.
Sunday morning I complete the trade with Team 3 first – I trade them Beachy (12D11) and Ethier (34D12) for Yonder Alonso (5D12), MLer Marte, and a $3 Jair Jurrjens (3D11) who has a year left.
I email back the completed offer with Team 1 – Freese and Hanigan for Bell, Sanchez and I need a CI because our first FA bidding won’t be until next Saturday and he wants Freese in his lineup right away so he sends me Matt Hague (sent down by Pittsburgh a day later but that doesn’t bother a rebuilding team).
Team 4 and I discuss minor leaguers and I send them an email offering Venable (16D12) for their choice of several of their farmhands and I need an outfielder to make this deal work, so how about Kyle Blanks who has hit the DL which will give Venable more at bats. They think this is eminently fair and deal three (Venable for Blanks (10R12) and MLer Raymond Fuentes who has stolen 40+ bases in both his minor league seasons) of the week is in the books. In fact those were the only three trades completed in the league but you can bet there will be more to follow.
Wonder how breakfast went down for Team 2 after the Commissioner’s email spelling out all the trades? They watched three competing teams get stronger and they didn’t plug any holes. True they have a great stash of minor leaguers to trade – currency of the realm in keeper leagues – and that will help them get better later in the year. But look at what I got in dealing with three teams and not with just one.
Option A – trade with Team 2
Freese, Beachy, and Ethier for MLers Brett Jackson, Jedd Gyorko, and either Jed Bradley or Zach Lee (we never discussed the third minor leaguer to be included and they would have had to include two scrubs, likely Shane Robinson and Chad Tracy)
OR
Option B – trades with Team 1 and Team 3 (combined)
Freese, Beachy, and Ethier for Y. Alonso (5D12), H. Sanchez (3D12), J. Jurrjens (3D11), M. Hague (10F12), and MLers Josh Bell and Starling Marte
IMO the MLers Bell and Marte will have more value than Gyorko and either pitcher, but even if you think those parts are even, measure Alonso, Sanchez, and Jurrjens vs Brett Jackson and decide which trade(s) you would have made.
Besides the league still has many months to play out before a Champion is crowned…..and several more trades to help me get ready to compete next year.
But that was a good first two weeks.{jcomments on}
Part II – The Auction and Resulting Roster
Shortstop Brandon Crawford, SF, projected to be -$1 before the season but had hit very well in spring training and changed my mind as I decided to keep him at $5 thinking I needed to give him a chance and there would be tough battle$ for the available shortstops. Plus I would only need a MI in the auction.
Next two pitching prospects that have been on my “Farm” for several years. Ross Detwiler, the tall, talented LHP from Southwest Missouri State who I had seen pitch at college and hoped would be a good major league pitcher. Well that hadn’t materialized until late last year but he had survived several years of cuts. I would have cut him this year if he was pitching in the bullpen but since we had to wait before we drafted I knew he was going to be in the rotation and in fact he got his first win the night before our draft so I was happy to keep him at $5.
Randall Delgado on the other hand was a much higher rated prospect but had not looked good this spring (shows you how bad Julio Teheran had pitched) and only the injury to Tim Hudson had given him a chance. Still I believe in the arm and the long term potential so I kept him at $5 also.
Well keeping all three deleted my frozen profit – at least on the latest set of projections but I would need to take some chances in the draft so I took these three early. But they weighted heavily and in my last hours of prep for the auction I realized I was not going to contend unless things went perfectly and that wasn’t bloody likely.
So I decided to be ready to race or rebuild depending on how things opened but my gut said I would have to rebuild.
The one good thing is that you can go AC/DC – not musically but if the draft goes perfectly for you can eschew the late rebuilding plays and play for this year. If you don’t like what happens early then look for those rebuilding chips AND don’t forget to get a couple of very good players that contending teams will want to trade for later in the year. Notice I didn’t say STUD players. Sure you might get Matt Kemp ($59+)), Ryan Braun ($54), or Hanley Ramirez ($42) BUT what would the market for them be when perhaps only one of the contending teams could fit him under the salary cap at those prices? You HAVE to keep that in mind.
Okay, gavel time. To quickly review I would need to buy a shortstop, a CI or MI (I could move Murphy), three outfielders and a utility player and three pitchers and had $145 to work with.
There was one other wrinkle before the auction started. One of the teams, actually the team that won last year (they had a good team but actually won because the team who had the best draft totally mismanaged their roster in respect to free agent pickups and trades and by the time they woke up it was too late) had frozen their ENTIRE roster! Something none of us had ever seen done before. In fairness to them the marginal players that they might not have frozen likely couldn’t have been repurchased for their prices. Still in fairness to you it wasn’t a great freeze list – there would still be the potential for other teams to win the league.
And try they did. So the 2nd place team had the first nomination and threw out a player they loved but whose contract had expired after 2011 – so what would Kemp go for – keep in mind we were drafting less than five miles from Dodger Stadium. Now this was a fun player for me. I had no delusion that he might go for a price low enough to have THE premium trade chip or that I could bid enough to get him to just enjoy him on my team and a player like Kemp if he were to succeed in going 50-50 could cover enough holes to help anyone win. Unfortunately one of the 50s was not his auction price as I help the team that nominated him pay $62 for his services this year.
Braun at $54 and Hanley at $42 were also first round nominations before it was even my turn. I needed a shortstop and with Hanley off the boards and Troy Tulowitzki ($45) and Jose Reyes ($36) frozen I decided to test the water and throw out Rafael Furcal. Furcal hasn’t been a premier fantasy shortstop since 2006 but he was reportedly healthy and off to a good start so I was slightly stunned to have the bidding stop on my $16 bid. Maybe they were saving their money for Jimmy Rollins but I knew he would go for more and he did, bought for $30 by one of the strongest freeze lists. (exactly what you want to note during the auction – WHO will be the buyers if you want to sell Furcal)
I was even more surprised when I landed Alex Gonzales for $10, which is about fitty cent for each home run the Brewer’s shortstop will hit this year but again if he is doing well and a contender has a week SS or MI slot I will waive his picture at them. And if I don’t trade him and he has a good year he may be a reasonable keeper at that price. Remember we are in a keeper league so there is 20-30% inflation each year.
Ryan Howard was definitely a player I wanted to buy. But I was not alone. Sure anyone would buy him for a low price, replace him with a playable reserve and then be glad to get him into the lineup in the second half of the year. I was more concerned with getting him at a price where he would be a reasonable keeper if healthy and hitting late this year or launching balls in spring training next year and again in an inflation riddled year I thought that was anyplace in the 20s. Sadly there were three other teams who were looking to play for next year in this year’s auction (which unfortunately can’t really be clarified until you are in the middle of the auction). Still I was not off my rocker to pay $29. Sure I would have liked to pay less but Howard is a difference maker – especially with the dearth in power from NL first basemen. So either he is blasting home runs later this year and someone wants to overpay for him or I decide next year how good a keeper he might be.
Even with that questionable purchase I have to tell you that if you are thinking you are likely rebuilding there is calm about the auction for you. You don’t feel pressed or nervous or agitated if someone else gets a good player. An amazing revelation in this draft.
There was one more player I wanted specifically to trade and I mentioned Andre Ethier earlier. I will presume you know that he is today second in the NL in runs batted in …….the only person in front of him is of course his teammate Kemp. I expect that to continue – not the second but a boatload of RBI's for the season. I was happy to pay $34 for him.
Now I had spent the majority of my budget but had a comfortable amount especially for the pitchers I wanted – a couple of very good arms who could close games next year (if not late this season). David Hernandez has a great arm and he is learning from a very smart pitcher……and J.J. Putz will not be back in Arizona next year so there is every possibility that Hernandez will close for the Diamondbacks in 2013. Well worth my dollar.
Similarly I think Rex Brothers will close in Colorado next year and was happy to place a $3 bet on him. The last pitcher I got was to make sure I won the league scrabble championship – just kidding but there are several other good reasons to own former Notre Dame Quarterback Jeff Samardzija. And I was fine for paying $8 to roster him this year whether he is traded this year or competing for a spot on my freeze list next year.
The last couple of players I rostered were outfielders. Will Venable for a retail $16. But I expect him to have another good year and be a light trade chip. Gerardo Parra on the other hand is clearly the best fourth outfielder in the National League and just a thumb injury or a sprain away from more than the projected couple hundred at bats which is low considering he is the backup for Kubel, Young, and JUp and will not only give them days off but be a defensive substitution for Kubel in close games and any of them in others. Six dollars would make a nice price for him if he was a starter in 2013 – hell he was worth $17 last year and wasn’t a starter.
So there you have my auction results. The next chapter will give you my reserves and minor league selections and perhaps some early trade talk.{jcomments on}
Part I – Background and A Freeze List
I am sure you have seen fantasy analysts, writers, and very good players talk about “rebuilding” a team. I am even surer you have seen some posts about the subject on our message boards. BUT
Has anyone really explained the concept beyond the trite…..”trading current value for future value” or “trying to get players a year early”? I doubt it.
You see there just isn’t a manual on rebuilding fantasy teams in keeper leagues. Sadly, for one thing keeper leagues are not the most popular format. We can all understand that the inherent dangers for those leagues – “dump” trades and bad rules have broken more leagues than you have played in (for better or worse or just the better part of three decades of competition, I can’t say that). But we all acknowledge that the allure of FF (not sure I am allowed to spell out those dirty words during the beginning of baseball season when it is not even on the horizon, but it involves an oblong shaped piece of pigskin as opposed to a circular orb made of horsehide) is that there is immediate gratification. There is only one day a week when most of the action takes place.
In most weeks the games are on Sunday and Monday so after trying for some free agents to help your team and get your lineups in on Saturday or Sunday morning all you have to do is watch an entire day of (mostly) exciting games with great plays all around the dial. And by Tuesday morning (if not Monday) you know whether you have won or lost your game. Now you can go back to work, family, life until the cycle starts the following weekend.
Compared to baseball it is simple, clean,.and not “boring". And let’s face it folks just not as much work. And that is what millions of Americans who play fantasy baseball enjoy. They aren’t going to be happy with facing the fact that they have to forfeit the $100 or $600 or whatever they paid for their NL only team this year and have no hope of cashing in that league so they need to start tearing that roster apart and working on next year’s team.
And yes I have written that more fantasy baseball players need PATIENCE in the first few days, really weeks, hey even months of the season to not make rash decisions on their teams and the players on their teams. You don’t dump Mark Teixeira because for the first two weeks of the season because he is hitting less than his weight and still hasn’t cleared the fences with even one ball of his bat this year. Actually Tex might be a classically bad example there because we KNOW that he is usually a slow starter – his April stats are legendarily (sorry Noah) bad. But did we do a bad job of conveying that in our write-ups? Profiles? Projections? Or did you just not remember what happened last year or two years ago? The bigger picture is that he ALWAYS hits 30+ home run, he always has more than 100 RBI and for the last two years he has hit about .250. This year won’t be any different.
Besides we are not talking about Teixeira here – well at least not as a target.
What I want to examine for you here is how to rebuild a fantasy team. What happens if you look at your keepers and decide that even if you are brilliant in this year’s auction your resultant team is just not going to be good enough to compete in your league? That there are a couple of really stacked freeze lists and some of them have really good minor leaguers on their bench waiting to help them this year either by arriving at the Show or by being shiny trade chips to entice another owner to give up the extra closer they need or trade them an outfielder to replace their Jacoby Ellsbury or whatever. Or what happens if you tried your best in the auction but then lost key players who would have given you a shot at your league title in the first week of action?
Now truth be told I am going to use one of my own teams here (no matter how painful). One of the reasons for that is that I can give you the actual thoughts that I had before, during, and after the draft. I have on many occasions been critical of teams that I have seen trying to rebuild where they just miss the boat – and not by just an arm’s length.
Trying to rebuild is not just trying to buy a bunch of really cheap players that will look like good value next year. You will leave the auction with an ungodly amount unspent. You might say “so what” here but aside from the ridicule and anger coming from your league mates – they won’t understand and some will be mad because you will at the same time have distorted the auction pricing that is at the heart of your league values. That doesn’t mean for example that if you thought this year that (let’s say) Josh Reddick or Juan Francisco (heir apparent to Chipper?) was going to have a nice debut this year and would really be primed for his first big year next year but would of course cost $20+ next year so you bought him “a year early” for $9 that that would be wrong. But trust me; nobody can be right about half a dozen such players this year. And even if you argue that if you bought twelve of them that you would be right on six, what would you have next year? Six players who are good values…..and what else?
You would like to buy a couple of those, but you also NEED to buy some really good or at least very useful players that any team would be happy to trade for this year. That list runs the gamut from an established good player that has some questions about him BUT if Andre Ethier regains his form this year – hits .300 and batting behind Matt Kemp (as well as Dee Gordon) has a ton of opportunities to drive in runs – then he will be a very valuable trade chip this summer.
And just like other teams in your league you might look for guys who just seem to be undervalued in your auction – the reason doesn’t matter, and frankly (hang with me I haven’t lost the marbles yet) neither does the result. You need to enforce auction prices while hunting for some players to keep and some players to trade and some players to watch and frankly just some to fill out your roster. BTW as an aside a perfect time to buy a player just because you like him or because he plays for your home town team.
There is another category of players you want to buy in rebuild mode – players on the DL or just coming back off injuries. Ryan Howard was an obvious target in NL only leagues; Brett Anderson in AL leagues. And in AL leagues perhaps Justin Morneau should be on the list although personally I think the risk of injury with Morneau could take away his trade value and even if I got him for a reasonable (single digit) price this year would I really want to bet on that again next year? If not there is no point of putting him on a roster you are rebuilding while a perfectly acceptable risk as a CI in leagues where you are competing this year and could easily replace him.
I am suddenly thinking here that some of you may not have drafted yet – that with Passover and Easter last weekend that if you are in keeper leagues with good rules and thus can’t draft until opening day rosters are clarified that if only a Friday night, Saturday, or Sunday works for your league your first real opportunity may be this coming weekend so I will include some players who I thought about for this rebuilding effort or didn’t get or thought they went cheaper than they should have so you might look for them this weekend.
Okay let’s go back to my NL keeper league team – Hook, Line, & Sinker. Frankly my problems started before I even submitted my freeze list as I lost a critical part of my team when my $2 closer Ryan Madson went on the disabled list. Actually the seed may have been planted there as I decided to freeze Madson because if he was only out for a year he would be a great keeper at $2 next year. And of course as good rules would suggest I would have one final time to reconsider that decision when we would have to make a decision on DL and minor league players before the auction started.
I took another hit when the Cincinnati Reds signed Ryan Ludwick to platoon with my $5 Chris Heisey in left field and yet another when they decided top prospect Devin Mesoraco was ready for the majors, reducing my $6 Ryan Hanigan to a part time role. But let’s look at my freeze list and then get to the auction. Here is what I entered the draft with.
C – Hanigan 6C12 & Wilson Ramos 8D11 – fine there
CI – Gaby Sanchez 10C13 & David Freese 8C12 – good there as well
2B/MI – Daniel Murphy 2D11 – great cheap contributor
OF – Heisey 5D10 & Nate Schierholtz 10D11 – not strong here
SP – Tommy Hanson 15C13 & Brandon Beachy 12D11 – very good second tier SP
RP – Madson 2D11 & Heath Bell 22D11 – a great pairing for the price before Madson went down
Okay, no STUD players but a nice $42 projected profit on the hitters and aside from Madson, nearly break even on the pitchers.
Next I would face three decisions prior to the auction on players who had made their teams opening day rosters….to Keep or not to Keep? Brandon Crawford, SS, SF; Randall Delgado, P, ATL; and Ross Detwiler, P, WAS.
Next Monday we will look at those decisions on auction night and then how the auction went
Part III will detail any roster changes the week after the draft.{jcomments on}
As in take what the auction gives you and don’t “Hop off the bus Gus”. So many times, especially in keeper league auctions where inflation rears its ugly head to disrupt your projected values and subsequent auction prices, players pull back from buying someone they need because “well that is more than he is going to earn”.
Yes, you aren’t going to get a profit from many of the players you buy before the end game in those auctions. But there is an invisible line there my friend and you need to see it to successfully complete your roster.
The profit should come from your keepers (or most of them, you are keeping Miguel Cabrera because it doesn’t matter that you would like to buy him back for less if you threw him back – your league mates won’t let you). It can also come from nice players at several positions in the end game when nobody has any money left and you get Chris Parmalee as you CI for a buck. Or when you roster a decent starting pitcher like Philip Humber for a dollar.
But you can’t win with five or six of those players so you can’t save a lot of your money until the end game. And you can’t afford to get into a bidding war in the middle of the auction with the STUDS already rostered and have to go to $18 for an iffy Colby Rasmus.
No you NEED to buy some of the solid performers even at inflated prices – you need to buy their STATS.
In my twenty seven year old AL keeper league, I tried to buy Albert Pujols, but he went to a team with a wheelbarrow full of cash for $56. Prince Fielder also broke the fifty dollar barrier fetching $51 auction dollars from another team with a big wallet. Sure I could have tried to go an extra buck (trust me it wouldn’t have worked with either of those players) and stretch the rest of my ninety seven dollar budget but I would still need six more players and the critical positions, catcher and closer would be sadly lacking and I would be fighting for every player I needed until they were “nice” but wouldn’t help me win.
So I settled for the very hot Carlos Pena for $16. I rostered the best catcher available in the draft, getting Kurt Suzuki for $17. And then because I couldn’t pay forty plus dollars for Adrian Gonzalez or Josh Hamilton and because I didn’t like the mid-range outfielder/DH types Alexi Rios at $18+, Adam Dunn at $19+, Nelson Cruz, the huge playing time risk like Hamilton, at $36+, or even Raul Ibanez at $16+, I decided to shift that money to get the one STUD starting pitcher who went for less than the inflation priced C.C. Sabathia at $31 or Felix Hernandez at $34. That is how I got Dan Haren for $29 and thus spent more on pitching than I ever have in my fantasy career. That is how with Haren joining Jeremy Hellickson, Ricky Romero, Matt Harrison, Justin Masterson and three closers (I froze Valverde at $17 and bought Hector Santiago for $13 and Fernando Rodney for $9 – and I still don’t understand why the bidding stopped there) I have the best pitching staff in the league.
And I will need it because while the Haren buy kept me out of auction dogfights – some already mentioned and others we don’t have the space for here, it did prevent me from getting either Cody Ross or Andy Dirks who both went for a dollar more than I had just before the end game (especially with one owner who failed to buy a better player earlier and was awash in auction cash).
But I have a salvation trying to swim upstream and get to Anaheim. While my minor league Mike Trout would have been a nice luxury if/when the Angels finally bring him up this year, he is now a necessity for my team to three-peat .
I did have one auction regret but I am still not sure that I could have rostered Yoenis Cespedes for $30-32. Only a rebuilding team was in at $29 and who knows how high he would have gone. Hopefully Trout will erase that recurring question and sleepless nights.{jcomments on}