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Captain's Log


Early 2012 Rankings PDF Print E-mail
Captain's Log
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Monday, 05 December 2011 00:13

Those of you who are Platinum Subscribers for 2012 may have already looked at the composite staff rankings posted late last week. Because it is never too early and because my rankings are always visible either here or in industry “expert” drafts or at FantasyBaseballExaminer.com I thought I would start to take a look at the positions for next season as we view them in December. First let’s look back at how the top first basemen fared in 2011 versus pre-season rankings.

2011 First basemen – by mixed league, 5X5 value

  1. Miguel Cabrera, Detroit
  2. Adrian Gonzalez, Boston
  3. Albert Pujols, St. Louis
  4. Prince Fielder, Milwaukee
  5. Joey Votto, Cincinnati
  6. Mark Teixeira, NY Yankees
  7. Paul Konerko, Chicago White Sox
  8. Ryan Howard, Philadelphia
  9. Eric Hosmer, Kansas City
  10. Mark Trumbo, LA Angels

While Hosmer was a great prospect, no one thought he would be up early enough in the season to be a Top Ten 1B for 2011 (although I did pay $7 for him in the AL LABR draft).  Similarly Kendrys Morales was the LA Angels first baseman that fantasy players wanted to draft. Kevin Youkilis will show up as a third baseman, but where is Adam Dunn? Morales we know about.

So what does my early look at first base look like?

Well I don’t think it is far different than the composite but I did have some players ranked higher and some left on entirely – when we really have a clue about when Ryan Howard will be back I will try and estimate his at bats. Right now the estimates vary between April and May meaning he could easily miss the first third of the season.

My Top 12 First basemen

  1. Albert Pujols – no matter where he lands
  2. Miguel Cabrera
  3. Adrian Gonzalez
  4. Joey Votto
  5. Prince Fielder – his home park might vary this rank
  6. Mark Teixeira
  7. Eric Hosmer – should build on last year’s start
  8. Paul Konerko – father time permitting
  9. Michael Morse – unless you get one above and move him to the OF
  10. Paul Goldschmidt – power is real
  11. Lance Berkman – he qualifies here even if Pujols “moves him” back to RF
  12. Michael Cuddyer – this might change depending on where he plays

Remember Kevin Youkilis is only eligible at third base next season, and Billy Butler doesn’t have twenty games as required in the NFBC or many leagues to start 2012. Like Howard I won’t rank Kendrys Morales until we know whether he will be in the Angels opening day lineup.

The “next player up” should you remove Morse or Cuddyer would be Atlanta’s Freddie Freeman, who is certainly a “starter” in fifteen team mixed leagues.

Did I miss anyone?

We’ll look at third base and thus corner infielders next week.

 

Last Updated on Monday, 05 December 2011 08:35
 
To Bow or not Tebow Revisited - Who Knew? PDF Print E-mail
Captain's Log
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Saturday, 19 November 2011 18:39

Recall LAST WEEK I wrote about my entry in the Football Guys Ultimate Survivor contest, specifically soliciting opinions on my first pick, the first overall.  Here is my squad.

Freeze or Shade………..As in Foster Freeze or Shady McCoy. Truth be told Ray Rice was in my final decision too. Ultimately I decided that while Arian Foster might put up the most points in weeks 12-16, I did not want to start with him on my bench for the first week. So my decision was LeSean McCoy over Rice.

Now who would make it back to me at 2.12? To review – the draft is twelve teams, drafting in a 3RR format meaning that after my first pick of the draft I will draft last in both rounds two and three.

The scoring and lineup requirements for this contest mirror that of the FBGPC – that is PPR but with 1.5 PPR for tight ends and four points for passing TDs while six points for rushing and receiving TDs. The scores are optimized for all the players on your twenty four man roster (so if you had Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, and Sam Bradford as your quarterbacks you would automatically get the highest of the three scores….this is called best ball scoring). The starting lineup is one QB, two RB, two WR, one TE and two Flex players which would be the highest scores from your remaining RB/WR/TE. And of course your best kicker and DST score.

I really had hoped that Rob Gronkowski would slide to the end of the second round, but the way Tom Brady has been finding him lately made that unlikely and in fact Jimmy Graham went at 2.03 and Gronk at 2.05. I also would have been thrilled to find Greg Jennings or one of the second tier running backs available but that didn’t happen either. The last twelve of 144 were there for a reason and drafting very well.

So my choices were Michael Turner, Dez Bryant or one of the top remaining tight ends. I took Jason Witten at 2.12 and now had to wait for my next pick at the end of the third round. But I was much happier here as I was able to grab Andre Johnson who should be on his last vacation week and then hopefully Matt Leinart can find him down the stretch, and then pair him with Denarious Moore the tremendous young Oakland receiver who has developed a nice rapport with Carson Palmer in just a short time and can take it to the house on almost any play.

Here is a recap of the draft picks and then the breakdown by position for those of you who want to see how it all came together.

1.01 LeSean McCoy, RB, PHL

2.12 Jason Witten, TE, DAL

3.12 Andre Johnson, WR, HOU

4.01 Denarious Moore, WR, OAK

5.12 Victor Cruz, WR, NYG

6.01 Mario Manningham, WR, NYG

7.12 Tim Tebow, QB, DEN

8.01 Carson Palmer, QB, OAK

9.12 Ed Dickson, TE, BAL

10.01 Kendall Hunter, RB, SF

11.12 Sam Bradford, QB, STL

12.01 Ben Watson, TE, CLE

13.12 Ryan Grant, RB, GB

14.01 Titus Young, WR, DET

15.12 Cincinnati Bengals DST

16.01 Buffalo Bills DST

17.12 Marion Barber, RB, CHI

18.01 Neil Rackers, K, HOU

19.12 Nick Novak, K, SD

20.01 Demaryius Thomas, WR, DEN

21.12 John Kuhn, RB, GB

22.01 Devery Henderson, WR, NO

23.12 Matt Prater, K, DEN

24.01 Isaac Redman, RB, PIT

 

QB – Tebow, Palmer, & Bradford

Since I waited until the 7/8 turn to take my first quarterback I was pretty surprised and happy to see Tebow still there. Palmer has played very well in his two starts and has lots of weapons over a nice schedule. Bradford gave me a third shot at 20+ points per week from the position.

RB – McCoy, Hunter, Grant, Barber, Kuhn, & Redman

Hunter may be a key pick and several were dismayed I grabbed him there (actually if the draft had gone differently I would have taken Gore and Hunter on an early turn). Barber is getting more and more involved with an improved Bears offense and Grant and Kuhn give me some short yardage options from the Packers high scoring offense. If Redman plays enough he will score enough – good for a last round pick.

WR – Johnson, Moore, Cruz, Manningham, Young, Thomas, & Henderson

Lots of chances for big games here because you would like to have your third best WR Flexed – in good weeks the four best will be on the board. The Giants will have to keep throwing making the Cruz/Manningham combo a nice pair to own. Titus Young has been getting more and more involved with Stafford and the Lions game plan. Henderson is always a solid pick in the best ball format because you are not penalized for the bad weeks but get the bomb for double digit points. Demaryius Thomas needs more experience but looks like he has better rapport with Tebow for the long balls – and he definitely has the speed for that play.

TE – Witten, Dickson, & Watson

Witten will catch a ton of balls – the TDs will be a bonus. Dickson has very good hands and is getting a lot of targets from Flacco and Watson will score at least one week as he is a very good play in PPR leagues.

K – Rackers, Novak, & Prater

Rackers will be off the first week, but has a big leg which may come into play even more if Leinart struggles. Novak and Prater are solid backups – they both have big legs on offenses that can struggle, a good combination.

DST – Bengals & Bills

Both top ten scoring DSTs to date and will have some good weeks – hopefully they mesh. With such a run on the top ones I was happy to get those as a pair and when many teams overdrafted the remainders I chose to stick with two and add an additional running back.

Overall I think a team that can score well every week – of course it remains to see if that will happen but I can see a Flex coming from any of the three positions but expect the wide receivers to dominate that but the tight ends able to help out in a soft week. Now they just have to stay healthy and on the field.

Postscript - A sad Sunday to have to sit through with this team - it got off to a fair start and then with nothing good happened fell all the way to last place heading into the SNF game where I would have McCoy and both Giant receivers looking for points. Of course I was expecting a lot more than they got.....if Shady McCoy had just gotten into the end zone on that beautiful run at the end of the game.....or if that happened earlier.....or if they had let him punch it in (yeah, sigh I know they had to sit on the lead and prevent). Problem is I had plenty of prevention with some of my draft picks and the way some of the games unfolded - Carson Palmer actually finished .70 points ahead of Tebow but he managed only one completion to Moore so I was really struggling for receiver points. Witten had that nice TD play to inflate a bad game from him but neither Dickson or Watson could catch more than a couple of balls. So I will start the first week with only a win or two depending on what happens on MNF and will then have to get 9 or 10 wins per week for the next five weeks to have a chance to move up on the field. - PVH

Last Updated on Monday, 21 November 2011 10:43
 
Who Would YOU Take with the 1st Pick? PDF Print E-mail
Captain's Log
Written by Perry Van Hook   
Thursday, 17 November 2011 00:00

I know an odd question since YOU aren’t up and I am talking about a football draft, but read a little further and see if you can help me with the pick.

The draft is for the last leg of Football Guys Ultimate Survivor contest and as one of the final twelve contestants I have the first pick. We will select twenty four players for their scores in weeks 11-16 using PPR scoring, best ball format, where each team plays each of the other eleven teams each week. The team with the most Wins for the six weeks will be the “Ultimate Survivor” from an original field of 144 entrants.

So who would you pick at 1.01? There are several good candidates and again I point out that in best ball contests, you automatically get the highest score from your QB, two RB, two WR, TE, and two Flex players which can be from your running backs, wide receivers or tight ends. The really means that although Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers will likely score the most points over the six weeks you probably shouldn’t take a quarterback in the first round because several QBBC might be close each week AND you won’t have the advantage of a STUD running back. So here are the candidates:

  • Arian Foster, RB, Houston – yes off the first week but has averaged 28 points per game over the last five weeks
  • Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore – has averaged just over 21 points per game over the same period and will play all six weeks of this stanza
  • LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia – McCoy’s average was between Rice and Foster for his four games in the last five weeks, but will Vick’s injury and the team’s not being in contention for the NFC East slow him down?
  • So who would you pick of those three? Or do you think any receiver could outscore the top running backs? Or would you just take Rodgers even if that means your running backs and likely wide receivers will be behind those of your opponents?

    It is an interesting problem and I promise to give you a full review of my draft in Monday’s edition of the Captain’s Log. And what other strategical moves I made during the draft.

    Last Updated on Thursday, 17 November 2011 09:09
     
    What to do with Neftali Feliz? PDF Print E-mail
    Captain's Log
    Written by Perry Van Hook   
    Saturday, 12 November 2011 16:47

    It seems like the Texas Rangers and I have the same question/problem with Neftali Feliz each spring. Is he a solid closer at a great price or is the arm and stuff so potentially dominant they there would be more value if he started every fifth day?

    Well I can adjust a lot easier than the Rangers can, but I would prefer to know their decision if not his success sooner than they will get there.  After all a trade is not one of their options but it is for my AL keeper team.

    Let’s go back to the 2010 season. Feliz had been promoted from my “Farm Team” to a three dollar salary because he made the Rangers opening day roster.  He was the “junior” closer for my team since I had Joakim Soria in the final year of his contract at 15C10. Both had good years and lots of saves and the CAPTAINS won the pennant.

    Last winter, I had the following pitchers on my roster

    Neftali Feliz        3D10

    Tommy Hunter 10F10

    Colby Lewis        10F10

    Carl Pavano        6D10

    Ricky Romero    3D09

    Brett Cecil           3D09

    I also had three pitchers that were likely to make their teams 2011 Opening Day rosters – Jeremy Hellickson, Michael Pineda, and Jordan Walden. [Our league has a minor league draft every year with each team getting five new minor leaguers after the auction. Rookie status is not a requirement; the players just have to be on American League minor league rosters. With no limit to the number of minor leaguers that can be kept – well other than the $5 for each player kept from the previous year – the Farm rosters can get close to twenty players]

    Hunter and Pavano I would certainly waive if they couldn’t be traded. Romero would have to be signed to a contract if I wanted to keep him beyond the 2011 season – Cecil was also promoted as a minor league in 2009 but I wouldn’t be extending him. But the key was Feliz. Would the Mariners keep him closing games or would they stretch him out and move him into the rotation?

    If I was losing Feliz as a closer I would not have one on the roster and at that point it wasn’t clear whether Walden was going to make the team much less be closing. So I went looking for a trade and after a few conversations, traded Cecil, Walden and my 3rd round minor league pick for Jose Valverde (17D10), Joaquin Benoit (10F10) and a 2nd round minor league draft pick.

    As the freeze deadline neared the Rangers still hadn’t made a decision so I decide to keep Benoit – yes it was Papa Grande insurance but Benoit had terrific numbers in 2010 for Tampa and with my very cheap Feliz, Romero, Hellickson, and Pineda I could afford to spend the extra dollars.

    Well hindsight is terrific – as opposed to Benoit. But Feliz remained a closer and Valverde had a career year, so my Saves were in good shape – I didn’t lead the league, in fact my 81 were third, just one save out of second. But my pitching was second or third in all categories but WHIP where I was first. On the other hand Walden closed right away and I no longer had that cheap asset.

    Back to this winter and the subject of Feliz in the rotation is back in play. True I can/will keep Valverde for his final year at $17, but if Feliz joins Romero (8C12), Hellickson, Pineda, and Harrison in my rotation, I will have to find a second closer via trade or in the auction. And I still have to decide on whether to retain Lewis or Justin Masterson (10R11) or see if there is a buyer for either.

    And I have to decide on what the best contract for Feliz will be – for sure I will extend him for one more year – the question is whether he will be worth an additional five dollars for 2014 – and that would be a lot clearer if I knew if he were starting or closing.

    But the Rangers don’t know either.

    Last Updated on Monday, 14 November 2011 19:03
     
    XFL Auction Results PDF Print E-mail
    Captain's Log
    Written by Perry Van Hook   
    Monday, 07 November 2011 14:48

    Last week I gave you my thoughts on my freeze list heading into the XFL auction draft last Friday at First Pitch AZ in Phoenix Arizona. So did I turn that list into a contending team? You tell me….here are the players I bought and thoughts about the auction in general.

    I had $108 in the auction to buy

  • One catcher
  • A third baseman
  • A middle infielder
  • Three outfielders (or two plus any other hitter)
  • Three pitchers (most likely starters)
  • As expected I had to wait a while to make my first purchase – there were eight teams with $130 plus and four of them had more than $160 – and there were some highly prized free agents like Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Ryan Zimmerman, and pitchers Roy Halladay and C.C. Sabathia. Pujols went for $66, Holliday 40, Zimmerman 39 (I was in until the mid-30s); Halladay cost 42 and Sabathia surprisingly only 27.

    I wanted to start the afternoon with Mike Napoli but while I think he will have more at bats and thus possibly more RBI and Runs, likely a much lower OBA and surrendered to Rotowire’s Jeff Erickson when he continued beyond Napoli’s earning this year and spent $29 to roster him. So my first opportunity came when Alex Rodriguez was finally nominated. How much would this astute group discount the injury plagued 2011 season? I was surprised (would said pleasantly but that will be a function of ARod’s 2012 season) to roster him at $29. When you need to take some chances this is the type of bet to place. If ARod rebounds he will earn a profit and in this league would be eminently keepable at $34 maybe even a third year.

    The good catchers were expensive and even though I was willing to spend at that position, I felt Napoli (29), Brian McCann (25), Victor Martinez (24), Miguel Montero (24?), and Chris Iannetta (15) were overvalued by my opponents, so I settled for Russell Martin at $8. Martin should easily earn that and can bring home a profit even if he gets fewer AB in 2012.

    I was happier when I rostered Adam Jones at $21. While that might be slightly over actual earned dollars he could take another step up next year and even a repeat of 2011 adds 20+ HR, double digit SB, and an OBA of almost .320 to my team.

    Asdrubal Cabrera wasn’t my first choice for a MI, but Jose Reyes at $38 was a bet I didn’t want to make and Chase Utley went for $26, so when AsCab was nominated I was interested. No, I don’t think he will repeat all last year’s numbers or earn the $24 I paid for him but the drop to the level of Jeter, Peralta, Furcal, and Aybar wasn’t where I wanted to settle AND you have to use your available funds where you can before the auction gets to the point of several players having more money than there is value and you are trying to compete with less (trust me I thought that might happen and it did).

    In the mid auction, I was very glad to roster Michael Cuddyer (regardless of where he signs) for just $11 and Ivan Nova for $6 (as I think any Yankee SP who can go six inning most outing has added value and Nova certainly had a promising second half of the season.

    The end game was bargain city. Who knew there were two teams who would not use a significant portion of their dollars? Plus several other owners would have different targets in a rich environment than I had my sights set on. I really like Pittsburgh outfielder Alex Pressley – he was very impressive in his debut last season and if not for the injury which cost him several weeks and AB he would have been more attractive. So roster him for a dollar in a keeper league was, at least in my opinion, a plus. I didn’t need to roster saves with Jonathan Papelbon and Heath Bell on my roster but a cheap potential closer would have significant value and while I don’t see Atlanta’s Craig Kimbrel losing his job any time in the near future, Jonny Venters has a ton of REAL value on that team. Venters had six wins and five saves with a great ERA and WHIP (1.84 and 1.09), but the 96 strikeouts in 81 innings is a very big plus and I believe Todd had him valued at $8 for last year. That will be a very nice profit on my $2 purchase with great upside.

    I had a handful of names of starting pitchers who I think have very good situations for next year that I would be able to get for a dollar or two. Assuming the Kansas City Royals are smart enough (yeah I know that is not guaranteed) to put RHP Aaron Crow into the rotation in March I think he will have success so I was glad to roster him even if I was force to pay $4 and I had the money.

    That brings me to a final thought from the XFL auction that might help you in leagues where you have an in season salary cap that you might well go up against. If the end game targets you have get very cheap and you would have paid $5 but got the targeted player (a real target – not just a player you like and overpaid for) for a dollar or two, you didn’t necessarily waste the three dollars you left on the table – you will have that much more room if you trade up and near the cap. Please note I am in no way suggesting you did well to leave double digit dollars on the table by misjudging the auction. Hopefully you see the difference.

    We will revisit my XFL roster when the supplemental draft arrives in early March.

    Last Updated on Tuesday, 08 November 2011 07:58
     
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